June 24, 2008

We're back to 2004 when it comes to home prices (even more when you factor in inflation). So how far will the way-back machine go?

2003?

2000?

1995?

Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities have dropped a record 15.3% in the past year and are now back to where they were in 2004, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor's.

Prices in the 20 cities are now down 17.8% from the peak two years ago. The biggest declines were seen in Las Vegas, Miami and Phoenix, with prices falling by 25% or more in the past year. Prices in 10 cities have fallen by more than 10%.

Here's the city-by-city breakdown in the Case-Shiller index:

Las Vegas, down 26.8% in the past year; Miami, down 26.7%; Phoenix, down 25%; Los Angeles, down 23.1%; San Diego, down 22.4%; San Francisco, down 22.1%; Tampa, down 20.4%; Detroit, down 18%; Minneapolis, down 15.5%; Washington, down 14.8%; Chicago, down 9.3%; New York, down 8.4%; Atlanta, down 7.5%; Cleveland, down 6.8%; Boston, down 6.4%; Seattle, down 4.9%; Denver, down 4.7%; Portland, down 4.7%; Dallas, down 3.4%; and Charlotte, down 0.1%

88 comments:

Anonymous said...

But Greg swann said everything would be fine!

Mark in San Diego said...

Most experts now say another 10% MINIMUM!. . .and in former hot markets - 20% more. . .gee, those Navy guys may be able to afford a house in San Diego again. . .which is after all, what we here at HP wanted all along - Affordable housing to live in, not to speculate on. . .job well done HP'ers.

barney said...

when I was looking through the MLS, is seemed that prices are really going down since I see more and more houses in the $200k range rather than the $300k and $400k range.

keith said...

Doesn't seem so long ago that some posters here were all "hey, where's the price declines? where's the crash? you bitter renters! you dopes!"

Well, here's your crash.

And with a couple of million of unwanted unsold homes out there, job losses about to heat up, the mexicans on their way home, and the government's failure to enact any meaningful housing welfare program, the price declines are still just getting started.

Bubbles wash themselves away. And then some. Remember that if you're tempted to catch a falling knife.

Patience.

Anonymous said...

In Orange County, prices will likely overshoot rental parity, and reach 1999 prices again. Hard to believe, but there is *still* some denial, which , along with all the shadow inventory, Alt-A resets coming, and difficulty in getting loans, tells me we are only 30-40% into this mess. I love it. I absolutely love it. I am short real estate, short the stock markets globally, and long energy.

Anonymous said...

I think that Northeastern Wisconsin may already be back to 1989. I can't believe the prices that some houses are selling for. But for everyone that is sold, there must be another fifteen or so unsold homes.

Jonathan said...

I still hear Realtors and real estate enthusiasts saying that with the falling dollar, foreigners are going to buy up all the property. Who are these mysterious foreigners I wonder...

Mark in San Diego said...

I consider it real progress - my owner friends never ask anymore when I will buy - they now tell me about great bargains in rentals in their buildings, and I could "lowball" an owner into getting cheaper rent. . .there are still a lot of speculators/investors who are waiting for the market to come back. . .right - with 30% drop in value, a return to 1% appreciation over inflation (the 50 year historic average) it would take them 30 years to get back to starting point!!

Anonymous said...

If it goes back to 1999 I will be break-even...I could see that, but not much past. If it does, people earning minimum wage will be able to buy a house where I live and I don't see that happening.

Lots of people have moved out of the neighborhood since 1999, and the people who have moved in are all amazed that I bought my place for less than 90 grand. Some paid up to $170K for theirs!

Anonymous said...

For South Florida I have been saying for years we are going back to 1997 to 1999 prices. Which is about 2 to 2.5 times median income. Median income about $47K. Median proepty got up to $450K a few years ago...almost 10 times median income...which was CRAZY. We sold 3 homes during the panic buying and rent a pent house on ocean for taxes and association fees. The borrower (renting home from bank) is out about $60K a year renting to us. I laugh as I don't own the place and I didn't have to pay $8,000 for a new AC the bank renter had to pay recntly to add insult to injury...LOL. Life is great being a renter for the first time in two decades. LOL.

I believe we need about 2 more years and we'll be back to 2 to 2.5 times median income for median home price. Very simple math. Right now there are some local banks that won't lend anything over 2 times income. So I expect more to follow in tightening. Once nobody can buy anymore is when we'll buy. We already took a stab at a home that at the top was valued at $1.2M now can be had for $484 with ocean views, they told me that is as low as they will go. I told them we'll see about that. The previous owner lost $300K cash and bank holds a mortgage on it for $700K. LOL all these damn fools are being crushed. When the blood of all these hogs is spread all over the road that is when to buy. I want it at $350 cash so I am waiting them out...as the price drops in the REO department every 3 weeks. LOL.

I have to buy now where I believe prices will be in 24 months, so as to not ride the wave down. Either I get my 24 month price target today or we sit back sipping margarita's overlooking the ocean and wait it out. LOL.

AmazingRuss said...

I was looking in '04, too. Thanks to Keith and Ben, I was able to see through the utter bullshit everybody was shoving at me...the realtor...the mortgage broker...my accountant...my friends, and instead finished off my degree and got the hell out of the crappy job I was in.

If it had gone the other way, I would probably be preparing for my final shooting rampage about now.

Anonymous said...

Long Island's middle class areas are definitely back to 2004 prices. I wouldn't say the same for Brooklyn, Queens and Staten Island, though. Denial there is still very strong. Houses are sitting on the market for months.

Anonymous said...

1991

Anonymous said...

Yeah back to housing panic again! My area (west palm ) still has to drop about $100,000 more to meet the incomes in the local area. This sucks bigtime here! There area no jobs and everyone is losing thier asses! It is affecting everyone here in this hot $hit hole state! I'm praying for a hurricane right now to get the local economy started again!! This is really going to suck!!!

rich in fl

Anonymous said...

2000 prices

Beignet

Peter T said...

If I knew how low house prices would go, I would make money with the Case-Shiller index. I have only a rough estimate:
2000 in nominal terms
1995 in real terms
When houses hit bottom, the commentators will try to persuade you that they must fall further because of the retiring boomers and decreasing immigration.

Real Estate Raj said...

I'm sure another 10% percent in price decline is a very real possibility, at least on a national level. However there are markets, several actually) that are seeing inventory decline with home prices beginning to edge up in tow. I suppose my point is that national numbers such as the price schiller index, is not a great indicator on overall market health.

Andrew from Russia said...

"How far back" is the most intriguing question! Bubblology studies - those funny charts on the history of UK/Southern US markets - show that prices usually decline to the peak of the previous boom but, given the magnitude of this BoB(*), can we hope for an overshoot? I mean, if prices are driven low enough to dislodge the "RE equals inflation protection" attitude, but then correct upward and stabilize - will then housing return to being just another kind of consumer good and save us from experiencing another bubble in a row? After all, we're SICK from distortions!

Worst case - the central backs do their best to inflate, "stimulate" and tickle the consumer so that the decline is halted by 2010, RE triumphs as the Ultimate Store of Wealth, mortgages become available in Somalia, and personal net worth goes negative on a global scale.

___
* BoB = Bubble of Bubbles

Anonymous said...

It wont go anywhere if bush doesn't veto this stupid bailout. I thnk ill stop paying all my debts if this passes... hey its the american way to be fiscally* irresponsible

Anonymous said...

NOW
IS
A
GREAT
TIME
TO
BUY
!
!
!

Anonymous said...

1999 to 2001 is what some REO properties are selling for.

Asking price from normal sellers however are 2005 to 2006 'close to peak' prices.

Anonymous said...

I can't comment on Las Vegas or Miami. I will comment on Atlanta though.

That 7.5% down number is very misleading. That decline is from the ghetto areas of Fulton Co, Clayton Co. and the outer suburbs like Canton and Forstyh Co.

Non-ghetto intown areas are showing no signs of falling prices. And since that is where I want to live, that's what matters to me. A house in the ghetto could drop 90% in value and I still won't buy it. Same with a house 45 miles outside the city. If anything, with $5 gas, houses in the city will continue to appreciate as nobody in their right mind will commute that far anymore.

What I would like to see is a breadown of those numbers by zip code and then you will see a different picture emerge. And I have a feeling this phenomenon is happening in every city across the country.

Chris said...

To help keep your patience, listen to Mr. Mortgage talk about California REOs and how they are really inflating the inventory of California homes for sale. While the NAR says 11 months, Mr. Mortgage estimates there are over 4 YEARS of invnentory for sale in California because of the REOs. He has some videos on YouTube about it.

Also, the biggest bubble states (what I like to call the "Fantastic 'Four-Closure' States" of CA, FL, NV and AZ) have the highest percentages of pay option ARMs out there. These toxic mortgages will continue to deflate these bubble states well into 2011 as they convert into REOs.

Anonymous said...

Circa 1998.

Look at the charts. Yes, I also learned how to appreciate charts through my economics professor. I love charts and graphs!

Anonymous said...

Wonder what everybody thinks about the fact that values seem to be doing marginally OK in a few select places. Not Dallas, Seattle, Portland or Charlotte -- those seem to be just starting the slide. But places like Denver, Boston, New York, maybe Cleveland -- the significant depreciation that these cities seem to have undergone in 2006 and 2007 appears to have leveled off.

It's purely anecdotal, but we bought in Denver in 2005 (in the city, near good schools, downtown and the light rail). Prices in our neighborhood seemed to be noticeably lower in 2006, about the same as 2006 in 2007, but then close to 2005 levels this past spring/summer.

Danny said...

34% further decline in L.A. That will put us at 2001 levels and back to the historical average of 5x price-to-income ratio. A deeper drop is totally within the realm of possibility, though.

I LUV SCOTTSDALE said...

Well..maybe..yes..no..perhaps..so-so..iffy..(and other vague denials)...
But EVERYBODY wants to live in Scottsdale, so its different here.

"NOW is the Best Time to BUY!" according to Scotts-reptilian realtor hacks, with close to 1,600 listings at over $1 million, a 3 year supply,(per Housing Doom blog).

k.w. - Southern Ca. said...

People need to realize that housing prices are mearly returning to the norm.

It's only a natural course of events, but it's being accelerated further now by job instability, skyrocketing costs of commodities and other basic necessities such as healthcare.

PortNew said...

Maybe now, that loser refugee, frank@scottsdalesucks, who was run out of Scottsdale, can go back and pick up some stucco shitbox condo closet for 150K.

Anonymous said...

Most cities needs to drop another 33-50% on the index before prices get aligned to inflation and earnings, the recent 10-15% drop is a minor consolation prize for renters.

donald said...

Speaking of catching flaling knives, I Just signed up for a foreclosure bus tour in Manhattan. There are only 23 foreclosures in Manhattna, so I am hoping that some of them are in good areas where it is safe to walk the streets at night. With a good enough discount, I don't mind catching falling knives. There are good deals out there, but you have to know where to look.

And speaking of price declines, the 2Q 2008 Manhattan real estate report is going to come out in a few weeks, annd, according to what I have read, it will not show any price declines. The brokers in Manhattan love telling everyone how prices will stay strong beause all of the foreigners are swooping in to buy apartments due to the weak dollar.

Anonymous said...

Home prices will decline to where the median income can afford the median priced home. We have to go all the way back to 1997 or 1998.

The decline will continue and probably excellerate in the later half of 2008 as states begin layoffs to balance budgets. Then we have the pay-option ARMS collapsing through 2011. Then we have Helicopter raising interest rates after the elections to cool off inflation.

We have a ways to go!

Anonymous said...

What about the pro athletes in Phoenix Greg Swann promised would buy all the houses?

Swaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnn!

Anonymous said...

I'M LOSING MONEY ON MY FLIP-FLOPS AND OTHER REALESTATE DEBT TRAPS AND IT'S YOUR FAULT HPERS.

DOPES!!!!!

Anonymous said...

"That 7.5% down number is very misleading. That decline is from the ghetto areas of Fulton Co, Clayton Co. and the outer suburbs like Canton and Forstyh Co.

Non-ghetto intown areas are showing no signs of falling prices. And since that is where I want to live, that's what matters to me."

Seeing the same thing in close in DC market too. Ghetto areas and areas way out in BFE McMansionville are toast but in the close in nice areas, not much exciting has happened.

Apparently, this is common in nearly ALL cities with a real center (not so much in places like LA, Phoenix & LV that grew up around the car) - outer areas and ghetto toast - inner areas OK.

Guess this is the side affect of $4.00 gas - maybe prices on those close in places werent justified on $1.50 gas, but make a lot of sense on $4.00 gas. Cest la vie!!!

Anonymous said...

Prices in certain areas are still way out of whack. Take a look at 21037. Shacks that shouldn't be over $100k are still going for over $200k. That area (Anne Arundel County MD) got a late start into the bubble compared to most and it's taken a while to start to fall. Inventories are up by 50% from 6 months ago and no one wants to lower their prices.

Anonymous said...

LOL. Just took a trip around a development circa 2004. 1/2 the homes either in forecosure, for sale or just flat out abandoned. Weeds growing up like.....well....WEEDS!!!! So these people have a house falling apart right next to them. Prices paid in 2004: average $260,000. Currently listed in property appraiser website: $150,000. WHAT A BEATING!!!! LOL. They aren't even worth that becasue they are on postage stamps and built by crappy US Homes.

wc said...

I hope at least 2001. But I will consider buying when it gets lower than renting and hopefully before someone in my mailroom starts talking about what a great time to buy it is... and of course they can make it look like Manhattan real estate doesn't go down - they're all co-ops - basically stock ownership that allows you to live in a unit - not real estate transactions. They won't show up in foreclosures anyway - they would show up as "sponsor" units. And the condos that they are building in NYC are mostly very high-end which are likely to stay up there for a while.

Anonymous said...

Boston down 6%. WOW! A whole 6% after prices more than doubled the previous five years. Yup you renters sure did the right thing.

NME said...

Real or nominal terms? Remember to add 10-12% headline inflation on the yearly nominal price fall.

Anonymous said...

Apparently, this is common in nearly ALL cities with a real center (not so much in places like LA, Phoenix & LV that grew up around the car) - outer areas and ghetto toast - inner areas OK.

====================

So exactly what are the bubble head bitter renting idiots celebrating? Oh yeay they can move out of their shithole 1 bed 1 bath rental and buy a shithole house where they will need bars on the windows for 25% off.

Yeah you guys sure hit the jackpot by renting all these years.

the g.w. hindenburg said...

You're right Keith!

Another MSM headline meets a new reality milestone...

THERE IS A REAL CRASH!

DOCUMENTED: JUNE 23,2008

I think its time for that classic vide4o again!!!!!!! Oh the horror of it all!

let'r roll!!!!

Anonymous said...

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080624/D91GKJ4G1.html

BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

Bailout bill passed with 90 votes. Veto proof bitches.

Enjoy the 1 bed 1 bath shithole renters.

BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

Anonymous said...

The local newspaper ran a special section on real estate recently.

The realtwhores mostly agreed sales were slightly down. One referred to the current market as simply "quiet". Others claimed they're having their best sales in years!

Lies, lies, and more lies. All of them!

Martinsville, VA

Anonymous said...

In Los Angeles, back to 1996 or 1995. An overshoot of the median, back to where prices were before the runup began in 1997, then a return to 1.6% annual growth. Growth will be flat for the better part of a decade.

How long will this take to bottom?

2012 to 2016.

deepc gi said...

I wonder how out of control inflation will have to get before the fed starts raising interest rates? It really looks like a perfect storm to me. The Fed holds back as long as possible, but prices continue to fall for another 18 months. Then wages really start to rise (meaningfully) with inflation for the first time and interest rates jump to slow it, but that gives the housing market another heart punch. If that happens we could easily roll back to 1998 prices.

Anonymous said...

Don't you people learn anything from Case? It's flip that house--Charlotte. Dead on fast to the Piedmont before it's too late.

Anonymous said...

Anon @ June 24, 2008 9:12 PM:

"So exactly what are the bubble head bitter renting idiots celebrating? Oh yeay they can move out of their shithole 1 bed 1 bath rental and buy a shithole house where they will need bars on the windows for 25% off.

Yeah you guys sure hit the jackpot by renting all these years."

I was wondering when the 'rub-your-nose-in-it' crowd was going to change their theme, now that a Crash is a fact and prices have plunged below where most of these smart-alecs bought into the bubble.

Not so smug now that they are underwater. I guess they will attempt to make us feel bad by telling us we can only afford a smaller house than the one they have (until they cannot keep up with the payments), as the payment on their 6,500 sq ft McMansion doubles and the value of it halves.

These jerks will be underwater on their homes for the next 12 years or so.

-Lee.

k.w. - Southern Ca. said...

So true, I know a doctor who committed to a house loan at the height of the frenzy - back in Jul. 2006 within Belmont Shore, Ca.

She is now deeply regretting her move, so all the hype about "this being a sub-prime issue" is just that - hype.

The fall in prices will be long and steep for quite sometime.


Anonymous said...
Home prices will decline to where the median income can afford the median priced home. We have to go all the way back to 1997 or 1998.

The decline will continue and probably excellerate in the later half of 2008 as states begin layoffs to balance budgets. Then we have the pay-option ARMS collapsing through 2011. Then we have Helicopter raising interest rates after the elections to cool off inflation.

We have a ways to go!

Edgar Alpo said...

Prices still going up. It's different here.

Anonymous said...

I was wondering when the 'rub-your-nose-in-it' crowd was going to change their theme, now that a Crash is a fact and prices have plunged below where most of these smart-alecs bought into the bubble.

Not so smug now that they are underwater. I guess they will attempt to make us feel bad by telling us we can only afford a smaller house than the one they have (until they cannot keep up with the payments), as the payment on their 6,500 sq ft McMansion doubles and the value of it halves.


===========

Your comprehension skills aren't too good. Read those posts again. The houses in the city center have not depreciated. Only houses that have depreciated are the houses nobody wants. Anyone who bought a house in a good location is just fine.

Try keeping up with the happenings.

Anonymous said...

For all the trolls (DOPES) that think HPers have been renting all their lives, hahaha you are wrong! Most of us sold at the peak in 2005 or 2006 and are traveling and enjoying our bubble cash as we rent and watch for the next buying opportunity.

Enjoy your debt trap trolls! You are part of the problem! Sorry, Keith I just had to feed the trolls a little Ramen!

LauraVella said...

The very bottom of the last re trough in California was 1996 with a median home price of 181,000.

In bubbles, price rise far above the mean, and prices will fall below the mean...

If they drop an additional $10-20k at least it would be in line more with CA salaries. (2x incomes)

Funny... the media says the just the opposite they predict prices will bottom by the end of this year!

Out at the peak said...

The price in my old neighborhood is already back to 2001 prices. (Santa Rosa, CA) I tried to be an optimist and think that 2001 prices would be the bottom. Since we are already at those prices and the bottom is clearly not in, prices could easily go to 1995 levels.

In a way, I want prices to stop at the 2000 level because if we go below that, I fear we will see a ramp up of all sorts of crime which isn't good for anyone.

Yoski said...

Reporting from Miami:
Currently we're back to 12/04 prices. Over the last 6 month we're dropping faster than we were rinsing during any 6 month period on the way up.
The market is in total disarray. Most sellers are still asking their 2005-bubble wishing prices, About 20-30% of the market are short sales and foreclosures with asking prices of 30-70% of peak bubble prices. IF anything sells it's those properties, but even they are not moving very fast. Once in a while you find what I call a motivated seller that's asking around 50-60% of peak bubble.
The economy is tanking and crime is up. We have 5+ years of overpriced condos nobody wants or can afford. Taxes and insurance combined account for about 2/3 of what you can charge in rent...that is if the low life that's renting your place actually decides to pay you and not blow it on crack. The county is broke and has to lay many people off. Doubt they will be lowering taxes, not sure about the legal basis for their assessments.
Hard to say when and where we will reach bottom. I'd say at bare ass minimum we have another 35% to fall from today's level which will put us at the 06/02 level. We also have 3 years supply of houses on the market plus what people took off the market 'cos it's hopeless. So I'd say at minimum another 2 years of declines but who knows, could be up to 5 years.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

2000

1995 in really bad bubble markets like SD, Florida, Phoenix.

There's no getting around fundamentals. Not ever.

Senate FOA Committee said...

This bailout might get interesting. All the trolls in here are gloating that the renters should enjoy their one bedroom crap holes etc, but maybe they should be careful of what they're proverbially wishing for.

Think about it. We all know the lenders are gonna dump the worst of the worst of their fraud loans on the FHA. That's nearly 300 billion dollars that will ultimately go straight down the tubes, nothing accomplished with it. The interesting part is that 300 billion is gonna have to be made up from somewhere else. It'll make it harder to fund the Iraq war, a good thing, and it will ultimately probably result in government employees and contractor losing their jobs as well. Lost jobs equal more lost homes, and ever lower prices, so let it roll. I don't want it to pass, but I look forward to the pain it's going to inflict when it does. The law of unintended consequences is in effect, once again...

Anonymous said...

I say early 90s prices or maybe even less. If this RE bubble is ridden with fraud, who knows how far it could go.

Agent 99 said...

What if there is no bottom? Seriously. House prices aren't going to fall to some predictable level (1998). A whole bunch of other stuff is going on that could keep us falling, falling, falling: Bank Failures (only 4 so far), Brokerage failures (only 1 so far) unemployment, pension fund busts, shadow economy, hedge funds, futures trading (oil), Bond rating erosion... I mean, what'll stop this? I, too have been kind of waiting for prices to drop so I could maybe pickup something affordable on the water. I have a feeling in a couple of years, I won't be thinking about buying a house on the water.

donald said...

"Home prices will decline to where the median income can afford the median priced home. We have to go all the way back to 1997 or 1998.

The decline will continue and probably excellerate in the later half of 2008 as states begin layoffs to balance budgets. Then we have the pay-option ARMS collapsing through 2011. Then we have Helicopter raising interest rates after the elections to cool off inflation.

We have a ways to go!"

TRANSLATION: I am never going to buy a house and I am going to rent for the rest of my life.

Anonymous said...

funny thimg is, now we have 5.00 Gas, record unemployment a failing currency, negative savings rate, rampent inflation, and people have their head in the sand. Did I mention it is very hard to get a loan and consumer debt is at a record level. 1995 would be a conservatve dream. try 1985 or think what would prices be if you we could only buy real estate with cash.

God bless everyone, we are all in this together

Anonymous said...

Oh yeah, nothing says "great home sales" like these current headlines:

* Confidence among Americans dropped to the lowest level in 16 years and house prices fell the most on record.

* U.S. Stocks Retreat on Economic Concern; UPS, Dow Chemical Drop

* United Airlines plans to layoff some 950 pilots starting late in the summer as it prepares to sharply downsize its operations beginning in the fall.

* Mass layoffs on the rise. The number of workers involved totaled 171,387, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

* The wave of foreclosures sweeping across the nation is taking more than consumers' homes. It's battering their credit scores so low that they could takes years to mend.

* Office Depot said it is trying to reduce its 2,000-employee workforce at its headquarters.

* Mississippi River floods could be worst in 15 years.

* Another levee falls as flood crest moves down Mississippi.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

Another thing that's not been mentioned here is the crash in commercial rental pricing in bubble markets. The demise of so many mortgage brokers and realtor firms has opened up tons of space and sent prices plummeting.

I terminated my previous office lease and moved into a comparable office that is twice the size for just over half the price!!!!

And guess who was here - a mortgage company. I know because all of their unpaid bills are still coming to this address. The other space I looked at in this same building was also a mortgage co ... lol

Thanks for the bargains guys!!!

not-bitter renter said...

"Enjoy the 1 bed 1 bath shithole renters."

I don't understand that retarded declaration...

I rent.

A 4 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath, 2 story plus finished basement, multi-car garage, huge yard (as in you could fit 9 more copies of the house on it and still have a lawn).

I know people who own 1 bedroom shitholes...

Reality said...

The crash on the upper end of the market is just beginning. I'm seeing hundreds of houses being listed for over $1mil with 10 mile radius if where I live. The only ones moving through the market are the ones willing cut price by about 30% off town assessed value (which is based on past comparable sales, with 2-3yr lag on average).

The house I'm renting now has a town assessed value of close to $1mil, and I'm renting it for about $3500. It's a 5+bedroom SFH sitting on over an acre. Property tax alone is $10k a year.

Anonymous said...

Hey Keith,


Under normal circumstances I would say that prices would fall to 1997 era...... but under these great depression 2 type conditions?

I think we will be looking at 1989 type prices or possibly worse. Many things have to happen to fulfill this type of scenario but we are well on our way.


California is toast!!!!!!
Welcome to depresionfornia!!!
Real Estate will be taken behind the woodshed for a few rounds.
Behold the Commercial Real Estate Crash.

People may laugh at my suggestions but we will see in 2 - 3 years.


ICEMAN

Jonathan said...

"Only houses that have depreciated are the houses nobody wants."

Ummmm, maybe in some parts of the country, but in places like Southern California and Florida, even places that were going for 1M+ have been depreciating. I know a fellow who bought for >1M (Altadena) and the value of his house has fallen by 30%. Higher value houses ARE holding up a little better though, simply because people with more money aren't as desperate to sell.


BWAAAAAAAH HAAAH HAAH HAAA!

eric in vegas said...

"http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080624/D91GKJ4G1.html

BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

Bailout bill passed with 90 votes. Veto proof bitches."

No one will be helped by this since any action by the banks are purely voluntary. I doubt many will be willing to reduce the mortgage and if they do it won't be by a significant amount. All this does is make the slower.

Anyone who thinks certain areas are safe from huge drops in values is deluding themselves. The nicer areas of town will come down too, maybe a little bit less but they will, it just takes longer because the banks and people trying to sell in those areas are still clinging to bubble prices. Time is on buyer's side.

mayor mcmansion said...

I suspect that when I'm still reading posts from bears who want to buy a house, then this housing bust has a long ways to go.
I'm definitely not seeing capitulation, the point at which the vast majority of the population believes that home ownership is a "bad" thing.
That's a difficult concept for many of us to imagine, but this has been a widespread housing bubble, and it was built upon the conviction of multiple generations that real estate was a solid "investment".
That sentiment will die hard, even among bears.

Anonymous said...

!!!!Breaking News!!!!

Illinois to sue Countrywide over lending practices.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080625/ap_on_bi_ge/countrywide_financial_lawsuit

or

http://tinyurl.com/3zvycr

GregOr

Anonymous said...

"Your comprehension skills aren't too good. Read those posts again. The houses in the city center have not depreciated. Only houses that have depreciated are the houses nobody wants. Anyone who bought a house in a good location is just fine."

No dumbass. Prices in white middle-class neighborhoods are falling like a rock.

First you said that there was no bubble becuase people in Vegas make $100,000 a year parking cars. Then you said "some crash" because prices were only falling 1%. Now you say that the declines are only happening in black neighborhoods. You really need your meds!

Anonymous said...

HA HA

Let the HP spin begin. You fools spend weeks and months bitching about the bailout bill. Then when it's passed your new argument is no big deal since it won't have any effect.

So if it won't have any effect, why are you all spending time writing letters to your senators and congressmen? why are you signing petitions? why is Qweefie having a heart attack over it?

Anyone?

eric in vegas said...

"So if it won't have any effect, why are you all spending time writing letters to your senators and congressmen? why are you signing petitions? why is Qweefie having a heart attack over it?

Anyone?"

I don't know why everyone gets their panties wadded up. If they would actually read the stories they would see these "bailouts" help so few people and they're just hot air so politicians can say they tried to help the little guy around election time. Let's take the latest bailout, #25, for example. Any lender activity is strictly voluntary (we're a long way from lenders realizing it will be better to write down mortgages by 30-40% rather than the house get trashed and become worthless). Also, anyone that is saved by this latest bailout attempt will have to share their profits (if they have any when they sell) with the government.

Anonymous said...

eric,

i respectfully disagree. this bailout won't help everyone, but it will help a lot of people. even if it keeps 25% of people who would otherwise foreclose from foreclosing, that will be a huge impact on housing. and this is only the start. when only 25% of people are helped a new bill will come along. and then another, and another. and before long, the government will be paying the mortgage of a subtantial amount of people. it will be yet one more welfare program that will keep prices artificially high for decades to come. you are sticking your head in the sand if you think otherwise.

Anonymous said...

Hmmm, let's see if the bailout will help all flippers, gamblers, and f*cked homedebtors who usually have a pathetic income of $40k max:

1. Banks will have to volunteer a conversion of the current ARM to a 30-year fixed. Let's be generous here and pick a 7% rate (only for people with good FICO scores).

2. Now we'll get an average low ball price of $400k for a home, with no equity since it's interest only financing.

3. 85% of $400k = $340k

4. $340k @ 7% for 30 years = $2,300 + $400 HOA + $300 TAX + $200 INS = $3,200 per month = $38,400 per year.

5. Oops, in order to comply with the standard PITI threshold of $28% Gross Income, the buyer should have an income of at least $137k (38,400 / 0.28). In other words, the capacity of the buyer to pay for this new "bailout" for an average $400k home, relies on an income of $137k.

6. Now show me how many of these flippers and gamblers who have incomes of $137k.

7. See? The numbers don't add and don't lie. So good luck with your bailout plan because it won't work, especially with mass layoffs, skyrocketing gas and food prices that put even more pressure on that PITI.

8. The bailout plan is a failure.

Anonymous said...


So if it won't have any effect, why are you all spending time writing letters to your senators and congressmen? why are you signing petitions? why is Qweefie having a heart attack over it?

Anyone?"


I'll go ahead and explain since you are so stupid. As the US goes deeper into debt to bail out Wall Street bankers, the US$ becomes weaker and inflation picks up. We end up with stagflation. All the while the people who caused this mess receive billions or trillions in taxpayer subsidies. Unless you are one of the cretins who receive the subsidies, you would be a moron not to care.

Anonymous said...

at least if they were to attempt to inflate their way out of this debt it would not raise the inflation numbers as housing ownership is not calculated in the inflation numbers and has not been calculated in them for 20 or so years

donald said...

"eric in vegas said...
"http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080624/D91GKJ4G1.html

BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

Bailout bill passed with 90 votes. Veto proof bitches."

No one will be helped by this since any action by the banks are purely voluntary."

You HPers are so dumb. First you argue that the bailout will keep house prices inflated, and then you say that it will have no affect. WAH WAH. Sounds like someone hates their 1 bedroom apartment!

donald said...

"I know people who own 1 bedroom shitholes..."

I do too. I know people who own 1 bedroom dumps in Manhattan that are worth far more than you can ever afford.

k.w. - Southern Ca. said...

I would suggest that you visit some of the "nicer places" here in Southern, Ca. - actually come visit them (before gas hits $6/gal nationally) and see for yourself that these areas are not doing well either in terms of the housing crisis.

I know first hand (on a day-by-day basis) how bad things are getting here for many folks who bought in recently to over-priced housing.

More and more SUV's, big trucks and boats up for sale all the time, it's no joke, and it's hitting home hard here.

Prices are going to collapse even further here because the price run-ups were the most out-of-line with actualy salaries.

Just wait until further job losses start mounting as we progress further into the year.

That's called keeping up with the happenings in real-time.


"Your comprehension skills aren't too good. Read those posts again. The houses in the city center have not depreciated. Only houses that have depreciated are the houses nobody wants. Anyone who bought a house in a good location is just fine.

Try keeping up with the happenings."

k.w. - Southern Ca. said...

Prices in upper-class (primarily white) neighborhoods are also taking a beating.

The crash is neither neighborhood nor class-specific.

And by the way, I like your comments on "taking meds", because alot of people in these pricier (over-inflated) areas are taking some-sort of daily sedative - that also includes doctors who can easily self-medicate with no prescription required.


Anonymous said...
"Your comprehension skills aren't too good. Read those posts again. The houses in the city center have not depreciated. Only houses that have depreciated are the houses nobody wants. Anyone who bought a house in a good location is just fine."

No dumbass. Prices in white middle-class neighborhoods are falling like a rock.

First you said that there was no bubble becuase people in Vegas make $100,000 a year parking cars. Then you said "some crash" because prices were only falling 1%. Now you say that the declines are only happening in black neighborhoods. You really need your meds!

Anonymous said...

SPIN AWAY HPerss..

weeeee weeeee weeee

face it losers, you lost. the government will be subsidizing every Mcmansion owner out there. you can try and justfiy all you want why it won't work. what it coems down to is this: if joe blow has a $3000 mortgage and he can only afford $2000, the govt will subsidize that last $1000. it won't be a direct check every month but it will have the same effect.

and that is why you are all so upset. you don't give a fuck about debts or the $US. You care about yourselves and yourselves only. And you will never afford a house now and you're pissed. It's OK let it out.

Anonymous said...

"Most of us sold at the peak in 2005 or 2006 and are traveling and enjoying our bubble cash as we rent and watch for the next buying opportunity."

Sure. You know posts here are a matter of record, right? "Most" of you have been renting since 2003 or before foolishly waiting to get 90% off. I remember one of you wrote if you went broke you'd move back home with mommy and daddy like a teat-sucking lamb. Loads of cash, yeah.

Not only are you a liar, you do a crappy job of it.

Anonymous said...

"Anonymous said...
"Your comprehension skills aren't too good. Read those posts again. The houses in the city center have not depreciated. Only houses that have depreciated are the houses nobody wants. Anyone who bought a house in a good location is just fine."

No dumbass. Prices in white middle-class neighborhoods are falling like a rock."

Not exactly. People are confusing high end, and high end close in. Take DC for example High end McMansions in BFE have already taken a 20-30% hit. And after that smackdown there is still 25 months of inventory at prices above 800K.

High End but small houses close to DC are maybe down a smidge. Sales? for houses above 800K there is only 4 months of inventory, a scorching market considering there is no money being lent.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

"Enjoy the 1 bed 1 bath shithole renters."

I don't understand that retarded declaration...

I rent.

A 4 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath, 2 story plus finished basement, multi-car garage, huge yard (as in you could fit 9 more copies of the house on it and still have a lawn).


They say it because they're pissed off that they work 80 hour weeks to pay the mortgage and upkeep on a dumpy fixer-upper and know full well they f*cked up by "buying" while we were smart and actually used our brains. So they lash out against us in anger.

I'm in the same boat as you - huge beautiful McMansion with sick views that idiots paid $1.5M for at the peak and I'm paying $3,600/month. About half my neighbors are also renting and the other half are paying over $8,000/month for the same thing I have.

Dopes!

Anonymous said...

Home prices are dropping nationwide FBs! Just keep paying that mortgage so we renters don't have to bail you out!

donald said...

""Most of us sold at the peak in 2005 or 2006 and are traveling and enjoying our bubble cash as we rent and watch for the next buying opportunity."

I did too. I sold 3 condos in Miami in 2005 for a $475,000 profit EACH. Now I am in the process of selling ocean front property in Kansas, as well as the Brooklyn Bridge. Want to make me an offer?

Frank are you really stuck in Scottsdale? said...

Frank from Snottsdale; you dont have to be such a pompous ass, you always boast about your wonderful material life..no one here cares..does your silly books dissing scottsdale sell that well? requiring a big commercial office? so you drive a rover too oh soo OC I guess you have to attempt to fit in around here. what is it that you actually do? I'm a Newport beach local who prefers to ride my bicycle and surf the wedge Im sure you are familiar you NB guy! I frequent Blackies/Beachball/Malarkeys/Cassidys you know on the strand and balboa/Newport..so where do you hang out in NB or are you really still stuck in scottsdale????