June 09, 2008

OilPANIC - Open Thread


102 comments:

bush said...

What better reason to attack Iran - high gas prices.

hurin said...

There is no bubble. Supply has been flat for the last 3 years while demand has continued to grow.

Speculators no not have secret tank farms in which to hoard oil. Without the ability to take physical delivery their buying and selling is a Zero-sum game with no long term impact on prices.

Projections of a sharp increase in future supply are hopelessly optimistic.
The US, Mexico, Canada, North Sea, and Russia are all in decline. There has been no independent audit of OPEC reserves for close to 30 years. In reality they may have no more than a 1/3 of the oil they say they have. The reason they wont raise production is that they can't.
Deep sea oil, like offshore Brazil, will require decades and gargantuan amounts of money and resources to develop.
Tar sand, oil shale and ethanol are a joke.

The Housing Bubble Ate My Balls said...

And so the Oil Panic Begins...
Over the weekend regular unleaded crested $4.00 a gallon here. When I walked down to the train station this morning to catch the 6:00am, low and behold there were several SUVs and Cross-overs parked in the usually empty lot. Trains and subways have been getting steadily more crowded since January but, today there was a noticeable change.
The train and subway were more packed then I have ever seen them before and I have been coming in way early for a while. It was almost like rush hour peak.
I am a diesel user so I have been paying over $4.00 a gallon for a while now, found a station yesterday that was still "only" $4.86 a gallon. I put $20.00 in one car, if it's a big week we might use that much between the wife and I in both cars.
BTW: it was easy to spot all of the public Transit "Newbies" and they didn't look happy, I think some won't be able to cope with it, others will be back in the drivers seat as soon as oil dips.

Anonymous said...

I'm not too worried yet, It will hit the low earners in America and then head up towards the top. I have enough room in our income to cover any future raise in fuel. We drive about 20 miles total a day and live close to work. I am heading to North Cal this week for a vacation and will be seeing the high cost first hand.

Mark said...

They are not making any more oil...

tangelo mozilo said...

Really, its dollar panic, no?

Anonymous said...

$4 dollars a gallon.
$5 dollars a gallon.
$7 dollars a gallon.
$10 dollars a gallon.
I'm all in favor of it. Whatever it takes to get these damn bully pick up truck drivers off the road. Im talking about the F-250's, the Toyota Tundra's, the GMC's. The Bully pick up trucks that are 10 feet off the ground. The sooner we get these bully losers off the road, the better!

Anonymous said...

What's better than paying $4.00+ a gallon for gas??

Paying $4.00+ a gallon for gas to drive on pothole ridden unmaintained roads, streets, and highways!!

Oil prices seep into asphalt costs, detour road work
USA TODAY
http://tinyurl.com/5wyhxt

" Fewer roads will be repaved this summer, thanks to soaring prices of oil-based asphalt.

Some states, cities and counties say their road-repair budgets didn't anticipate asphalt prices that are up 25.9% from a year ago, so they're being forced to delay projects."

Anonymous said...

"Wealth Evaporates as Oil Prices Soar. . . ."

The middle class is so screwed and they don't even know it yet.

When do you think j6p will wake up? At $8.00 or $10.00?



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a4kOXcpI3dQg&refer=home


Beignet

Andrew from Russia (an oil-exporting country) said...

It's all smog and congestion over here. It seems that the $1 per liter ($3.78 per gallon, right?) gasoline is not enough to stop the car loan madness. When oil export windfalls are exchanged for more four-wheeled polluters, it doesn't look healthy.

Anonymous said...

There is now the distinct possibility of a simultaneous sell-off in global bonds, equities and commodities

Glenna said...

I want to see George Bush invite the oil sheik to his ranch and have another photo op holding the guy's hand and looking so buddy=buddy again. Wait, I guess he'll get have plenty of time to do that when he is out of office. After all, he wouldn't want the public to think he or of his cronies have profited from this fiasco!

Does any one think McCain's loyalties will be any different since he had to make a deal with the devil (Neocons) to get the nomination. McCain will just turn a blind eye to the core Neocon priorities in order to succeed on the not as important issues to them. Face it, us American's are used to being lied to and used to settling for just being thrown a bone! So why insist on more? We may as well be willing to settle for "new McCain" which unfortunately translates to "revised into non-Maverick form" and keep the status quo. I don't think this country could take it. More wars (but with the draft now), the economy will be patched instead of turned around and the rich will continue to wring the last remaing ounce of wealth out of this nation and we will not be respected around the world for our currancy, politics or guts as a nation.

Anonymous said...

..........$4.09 a gallon..........

I drive an economy car, and still cannot afford the gas to fill it.

WHAT AM I GOING TO DO! My job is now at risk!!

Anonymous said...

hurin ends this thread....because he is 100% correct. There may actually be a selloff as the speculators move elsewhere but it's not a bubble. It may drop (probably will) but it will go right back up. Supply/demand.

Bushco-Cheneyburton Perpwalk... said...

Impeach Bushco-Cheneyburton NOW.

Revoke Passports
Seize Assets
Imprison Indefinitely.
xtra credit = ORANGE Prsion jumpsuits...

Anonymous said...

So far a thread with intelligent posts only.

When will the 1st idiot arrive and say that drilling in Alaska will solve the problem. LOL

43 George W. Bush, WORST EVER said...

The middle of the USA deluged and flooded. US Citizens looking towards Federal Government for HELP.

Where is Bushco in time of trouble?

On his way to a foreign 'summit' meeting.

Fuck Bush. Worst, Grossly Incompetent Ever.

Impeach Immediately.

Anonymous said...

..........$4.09 a gallon..........

I drive an economy car, and still cannot afford the gas to fill it.

WHAT AM I GOING TO DO! My job is now at risk!!


1) Find a sturdy doorway
2) Remove all objects from your pockets and secure them into any nearby desk drawers.
3) Find a pillow or cushion from any nearby couch
4) Sit down in the doorway with your knees bent
5) Place the pillow or cushion on your knees and bring your head forward to rest on it.
6) Kiss your ass goodbye.

(Actual saftey instructions at a nuclear power plant for what to do in case of a nuclear melt down.)

But seriously... people like Roccland have been warning everyone here for years. There were plenty of websites explaining the science behind peak oil - and I found it amazing how everyone could ridiclue these sites without providing ANY scientific contrary view. It was always "Pffft... that could never happen you moron."

Well... it's now a bit too late to be asking "What should I do" - when you've already fallen off the cliff. At this point, all you can really do is pray that God will provide you a soft landing.

I expect there will soon be alot of people (just like you) who will also find religion... again. Unfortunately most will believe the answer will lie in listening to their leaders to continue the global conquest.

DaveO said...

There is no bubble. Supply has been flat for the last 3 years while demand has continued to grow.

Are you saying demand has quintupled since 2001 (which is what crude oil prices have multiplied by since then)?

LibVet said...

Last night I went to the local convenience store to get smokes and beer. Decided to top off the tank while I was there. Pulled up to the pump.

The hoses for the low and middle grades of gasoline had been removed. All that remained were the hoses for premium and and diesel.

This is not significant, I suppose, but it was just odd.

Chucky said...

I'm all in favor of it.

Another person who doesn't understand how the cost of goods is derived. At any cost to do away with those he doesn't like (the F-250 drivers). It isn't a big wonder how Bush got us into this war is it?

Anonymous said...

I would love to live in the city and be able to walk to work or bike. I can't just pull up roots, yank my kids out of school and leave my family and friends to save on gas. We all can't live in the city and we can't change the fact that America is a big wide-open, spread out place.

If you wish for $8 gas so that you can have more room on the road or see the SUV driver really take it in the shorts you are really asking for a complete economic meltdown of the US. And smug won't keep that melt-down from affecting you as well.

Shame on you. Higher gas prices take food off the table of single mothers, reduce contributions to food banks, force businesses to go under, increase unemployment and increase the cost of everything. Have some compassion and common sense please. We need more groups like this one:


www.AmericansForJobsAndEnergy.org


We need a rational response. Yes reducing demand is important but killing the economy and forcing millions into poverty is just cruel and in the end, serves no one.

Terry

Oskar said...

I had a dream that America would be the driving force behind the next great innovation: The electric car, solar power and non-destructive modes of agriculture (the new-green revolution).

Within 5 years the entire infrastructure would be installed to convert the American roadways to accomodate solar powered electric only vehicles and means of shipping and producing goods.

And America would once again demonstrate that its the only real leading innovative force in the free world.....

Then I woke up in my dumpster and pulled my newspaper blanket over my head, had another swig of booze, pissed in my pants to stay warm and went back to sleep.

Oskar

Anonymous said...

.


Bully?


Bully?


Must be a Limey!


.

max_in_wa said...

Hurin said it very well. Just to expand on his first paragraph -- it is quite possible that oil at $80/bbl was simply underpriced because investors did not understand the implications of peak oil. PO is even starting to trickle into the mainstream media and this awareness is bound to cause people to value oil more highly. Of course, we may not be at or very near peak, but one can only tell after the fact.

Anyway, consider that one barrel of oil provides the work-energy equivalent of 25000 hours of human labor. At $7/hr for grunt work we use machines to do, a barrel of oil is worth $175,000. Oil is in insanely cheap for what we get out of it.

Andrew Hac said...

Damn the Hummer driver !
Damn the SUV driver !
Damn the Escalade driver !
Damn the Ford F-250 driver !
Damn the S.O.B whom owns the freaking pleasure boat that drinks 3 miles to a gallon.

This nation is full of baby-face crying citizens, always howling, wanting, needing, demanding things that are not necessary for the sake of living. On a one-ton-one scale for harm to the earth, the Americano is worse, much worse than the famous Snapper Turtle.

#####

Crude oil is heading toward $150 Americano shitty-worth-currency by the 4th of July, the once-proud-day of the past where the Americano is the driver of the world's economy, the pusher and mover !. But atlas, no more...

The Americano Housing Bubble has revealed the true anatomy of the Americano Australopithecus species. And what that anatomy amounts to is a heap of putrid, rotten to the core, maggot filled, rat chewing pile of garbage.

Greed, Ignorance, Irresponsibility, Laziness, Materialistic-Craze, Hoity-Toity attitudes are all part of the Americano rotted anatomy, stinky gut.

How a fat-ass, obese, beer-gut, rotten teeth, putrid breath, dumb-ass Americano male driving by himself a Ford Expedition on the road, consuming 10-15 miles per gallon of gasoline is just beyond the realm of reasoning.

How a whole family of cracker-nuthead, GrandPa and GrandMa, Joe6Pack and JaneZinfandel, 6 of the spoiled-brat runny nose snotty kids swarming the Walmart aisle after aisle piling junks on the shopping cart is pure hilarious and pitiful at the same time.

How a whole family of Hicks and HillBilly chomping down on oily, greasy McDonal french fries and Wendy’s hamburger is just so resembling the scene of the bunch of hogs roosting and wallowing at the feed trough.

The Americano nation is pathetic and sinful beyond the point of redemption !

Anonymous said...

There is no energy crisis...you are all being played...
Watch this and you will know!!!

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3340274697167011147&hl=en

Markus Arelius said...

$4.41/gallon in Orange County, California.

Yeeee Haaaaah!

Anonymous said...

bush said...
What better reason to attack Iran - high gas prices.

June 09, 2008 10:32 AM

If you want to stop this gas raid then attack the London "spot market" and leave Iran alone.

The producers are still only getting $5.00 per barrel. The London speculators are the source of the hyperinflation.

Lastly,,,,"why are Americans so damn stupid"?

Anonymous said...

Time to buy UGA was a month ago !

Still love you Keith!

Toby said...

$4-$5 gas is good for America. It will force us off our addiction. It will demand lifestyle changes: Less, more efficient driving; More mass transportation; alternative fules (see CNG); smaller, efficient houses; less waste, less carbon, less pollution. Those that think we have a birthright to cheap energy are in for an awakening.

Anonymous said...

why do people keep saying that speculators are incapable of hoarding oil?

there are some major Wall Street players with billions of speculation money and guess what, these investment banks have huge oil warehouses and massive oil tankers at their disposal.

why would an investment bank own oil tankers and oil warehouses?

*cough*hoarding*cough*

Anonymous said...

Obama will get them to lower oil price. LMAO @ the hopeless

Anonymous said...

Well, your candidate, Hussien the socialist, has said that he will tax "windfall profits" (whatever that means) of the oil companies and give those tax revenues to low income americans to help them pay for energy expenses.

http://tinyurl.com/6c6m33



What is the definition of "windfall" profits???? Certianly not as a percentage of expenses because the oil companies don't have that large of a profit margin. So should any company that makes more than, say 3Billion a quarter, be considered as making "windfall profits"?

and if companies make "windfall losses" will uncle same step in and pay tax revenue back to those companies? I guess they do already, it's called farm subsidies.


Microsoft certainly would qualify as making "windfall" profits, wouldn't they? perhaps old Softy should be taxed extra and those taxes be given to the needy to buy computers....

Face it. Hussien is a pure socialist and will promise all the income redistribution necessary to win the election.

meems said...

I happened to be visiting an account yesterday and overheard a broker closing a deal on the phone. When he got off the phone he was laughing to a co-worker at how much money he just made and how much he was charging the guy for storing it [the oil] for him. So I don't believe the whole thing about nobody hoarding oil - just because speculators may not be holding onto it themselves doesn't mean someone's not holding it for them. Not that demand isn't up worldwide - I just don't buy that this game is not completely manipulated.

Anonymous said...

What's better than paying $4.00+ a gallon for gas??

Paying $4.00+ a gallon for gas to drive on pothole ridden unmaintained roads, streets, and highways!!
-------------------------------

my hummer has no problem with pot holes!

Anonymous said...

Projections of a sharp increase in future supply are hopelessly optimistic.
The US, Mexico, Canada, North Sea, and Russia are all in decline. There has been no independent audit of OPEC reserves for close to 30 years. In reality they may have no more than a 1/3 of the oil they say they have. The reason they wont raise production is that they can't.
Deep sea oil, like offshore Brazil, will require decades and gargantuan amounts of money and resources to develop.
Tar sand, oil shale and ethanol are a joke.

----------------------------------

some of the cartel members are talking about reducing output in order to save their reserves for the future when prices are higher.......... could opec start hoarding oil????

Bubble 101 said...

"I'm all in favor of it. Whatever it takes to get these damn bully pick up truck drivers off the road. Im talking about the F-250's, the Toyota Tundra's, the GMC's. The Bully pick up trucks that are 10 feet off the ground. The sooner we get these bully losers off the road, the better!"

Thank you - As much as I don't like what it is doing to the economy and I do feel sorry for the lower class WORKING folks (screwed by GW Bush), I love seeing these idiots having to garage the Dinosaurs and not being able to afford to drive these bohemoths anymore. Fortunately most rednecks that owned these things were general contractors for homebuilders, so they probably will join the Dinosaurs in extinction.

Anonymous said...

You know, I think Hussien might be more dangerous than McLoser because Hussien will actually try to do something to "fix" the economy and what he proposes will actually do more harm. It would be better to do nothing than to do the absolutely wrong things.

Now Hussien is proposing another stimulus check to get consumer spending going again.





"Entering the general election campaign with a slight lead on McCain in public opinion polls, Obama renewed his call for a $50 billion stimulus package as a way to try to spur consumer spending and jolt new life into the economy, and a $10 billion fund for homeowners caught up in the housing crisis."

Anonymous said...

At $4/gallon it's still one-half to one-third what the rest of the developed world pays, which might explain why our cars and asses are two to three times as large as theirs. If it makes Barbie and Ken ditch their Hummers and Excursions, this is a great thing...an overdue slap in the face. Yeah yeah, short-term chaos, but I'll take that over another century of environmental chaos. Wait until those fumes blow over from China...cough...

Markus Arelius said...

Keith,

The answer is:

Motorcycles!

I drive my Ninja 650R and get about 50 mpg city highway (and I ride the speed limit). Also, dependant on your weight. If you're overweight, you might be better off in a gas-guzzling SUV anyway.

Dangerous as hell, I'll admit, but it sure beats beats the tar out of the 22 mpg city of my 2000 honda civic.

Added benefit (in California) at least is that you can lane split and beat some of the traffic jams.

Not for everyone.

Honda should really bring back the CRX model. That car got 49 mpg city / 52 highway - back in 1984!

Anonymous said...

Sustained gasoline prices above $6/gallon will grind the US economy down to a sputtering, churning mess of broken gears, busted hoses, cracked gauges, and smoking metallic refuse.

It's looking like 2008 could become the dividing line between the world as we know it, and the world as we knowed it.


From www.PeakOil.com

Agent 99 said...

I'm getting a little seasick...
Oil Up...Stock Market Down
Oil Up...Gold Up
Housing Down...Stock Market Up
Gold Down...Unemployment Up
Unemployment Down...Gold Down
Oil Down...Dollar Up
Dollar Up...Gold Down
Euro Down...Yen Up
I don't want to play anymore. Everything's bouncing all over the place.

Anonymous said...

Someone who I know that works at an RV dealership recently told me that business was down 50% from a year prior. Bad news when he has a family to support.

michael said...

"I drive an economy car, and still cannot afford the gas to fill it."

don't know; as the price of oil approaches the return of an hour of labor, things will have to start inflating.

of course, driving a car is already expensive:

-- car payment (say $300/month)
-- car insurance (say $60/month)
-- gas (say $150/month)

makes driving cost about $17/day which is three times minimum wage.

the next step might be toll roads and higher gas prices! and that means everything else will go up, etc....

very interesting times are ahead!

Anonymous said...

So you don't like the Fed? Wait until you get a load of this:

Bilderberg Seeks Bank Centralization Agenda

Anonymous said...

Did you hear Obama wants another round of stimulis checks? It's true, go to CNNFn... When will this madness end?

slick willy said...

I'm just glad I did not take out a HELOC to finance a Hummer (RIP).

It could be a long hot summer of energy spikes, but don't forget that the entire energy market has been on fire (so to speak). The A/C to keep cool and the heating oil and natural gas to keep warm this winter may be the next big story.

Now is a great time to buy (energy) -- you don't want to get priced out of the market forever!

Gabor said...

Oil Panic, at $4 a gallon? Gimme a break. Wake me up when we are at $40 a gallon. Or at least when my latte doesn't cost 4X as much as gas.

Gabor said...

"WHAT AM I GOING TO DO! My job is now at risk!!"

-- Um, you are going to :
1. Get a closer job
2. Get a 2nd job
3. Take the bus
4. Buy less DVD, soda, candy, etc
5. Cancel your cable

Don't be a bitch, grow up and deal with it.

Joe said...

..........$4.09 a gallon..........

I drive an economy car, and still cannot afford the gas to fill it.

WHAT AM I GOING TO DO! My job is now at risk!!


Well, you'll either be clever enough to adapt to a new environment, or you won't.

DreadlocCowgirl said...

How are hourly wage workers supposed to cope? I was making $8/hr at Borders Books before I left. How are people supposed to get to work? I feel so bad for folks out there. Walmart is making millions but I know the employees are struggling.

Anonymous said...

1964 was the last year the silver quarter was issued.

gallon of gas in 1964 cost 31 cents
31 cents / 25 cents = 1.24 silver quarters per gallon
silver quarter cost right now $3.10
1.24 * $3.10 = $3.84
so gas should cost $3.84

The extra 16 cents is pure speculation.

Anonymous said...

I drive an economy car, and still cannot afford the gas to fill it.

Use a bicycle.

bickerer said...

Here's an article written right down the middle of the road that everyone here could probably learn something from.

>Recent work by MIT economists Frank Levy and Peter Temin shows that a wedge has been driven between productivity gains and compensation (wages plus health care and fringe benefits) for full-time workers at peak earning age. Since 1980, productivity has increased by 71 percent while median compensation rose by only 19percent, and 82 percent of personal income gains went to the top 1 percent of the population.

In recent years, these trends have actually worsened. Since 2000, labor productivity has grown by 16 percent, but the median weekly compensation of male high school graduates has declined slightly. To be sure, education matters more than it used to: The difference in median weekly wages of college and high school graduates has just about doubled since 1980. One reason is that the supply of highly educated workers has not kept pace with technological advances.

http://tinyurl.com/5vnenk
(so a failing educational system is doing more harm than it used to (and more money WON'T fix it, competition will).

Anonymous said...

I thought everyone here made $250K a year. And you sold your $1.7M house in 2005 walking away with $1.5M in cash that you invested in gold, silver and Countrywide puts.

None of you should care if gas is $4 or $40 a gallon with all your wealth.

Unless you are all full of shit and are all 1 bed 1 bath shithole apt dwellers working for $11 an hour and can't afford to fill up the 1993 Camry you own.

Hmmmm I wonder which scenario is more accurate.

Anonymous said...

anon 2:17,

you spent a lot of time locked up in your locker during high school right?

Rule #5 of life: those who call others loser, are most always the biggest loser around

think about it

Anonymous said...

hurin said...
There is no bubble. Supply has been flat for the last 3 years while demand has continued to grow.

Speculators no not have secret tank farms in which to hoard oil. Without the ability to take physical delivery their buying and selling is a Zero-sum game with no long term impact on prices.

==============================

Here is a real world example of how speculators are hoarding oil!

Take an industrial user like Northwest Airlines, who knows that they are going to use a very large volume of oil products. They buy contracts to speculate (or hedge if you like to think of it this way) on their future purchases.

This has the effect of locking in for them much lower prices for the oil related products that they consume--- Therefore all other oil consumers are left to bid for a smaller share of remaining oil resources.... THAT'S HOW AND WHY speculative trading is driving the cost of the GASOLINE AT THE PUMPS --- HIGHER AND HIGHER AND HIGHER!

ITS CALLED SUPPLY & DEMAND. As overall demand continues to outstrip supply *EVERYONE who hedges/speculates LONG oil contracts* Take their share out of supply at lower prices. Pure speculators who buy contracts and then sell later for higher prices are in effect taking their profits or diminished expenses out of your higher cost of oil based products and services.

This works both ways; meaning that if somehow a hugh physical supply were to be dumped onto the market and the specs lost money--- their losses would add to your savings by driving your cost of oil down even lower. ***THE REAL PROBLEM: Seems like peak oil is here and for the first time in the history of oil production the world is never going to have that REQUIRED added supply dumped on to the market. Too bad the Saudis have run out of spare capasity--- in the old days, the power brokers in
London would let the specs run up prices just long enough to hang themselves and then the Saudies would dump a ton of oil on to the market resulting in a temporary glut and the price would plumit--- the oil specs would get slaughtered and GAS PRICES AT THE PUMP always stayed under $2/ GAL.

Welcome to peak oil, where gas last year was $2/gal, this year is $4/gal, and next year $6 to $8/gal... and by 2010 it will be over $10/gal and be rationed to boot!!!

Anonymous said...

Old worn out suit and shoes,
I don't pay no union dues.
I smoke old stogies I have found;
Short, but not too big around
I'm a man of means by no means
King of the road.

Staten Island Real Estate said...

Europeans have been driving small cars and paying 2-3 times the US gas prices for decades. We need to rethink our ways of using natural resources, especially since we're dependent on other countries for oil.

consultant said...

Got peak oil, anyone?

At this point, only 2 events can significantly bring down the price of oil:
1) demand destruction. A significant recession here or elsewhere.
2) a new oil find on the order of the Saudi oil fields. The impact of such a find would not change prices in the near term but would impact planning and pricing down the road.

The problem is there have been no, I repeat, no finds of this magnitude in the past 30 years. High and higher oil prices (with fluctuations) are here to stay.

The big question now is how do we respond to this dramatic fact?

consultant said...

Since two thirds of the oil we use goes for PERSONAL transportation, perhaps the easiest and most rational thing we could do is:
1) Get intercity trains up and running again for routes under 300 miles. Get the federal government to develop the tracks and let private industry own and run the trains.
2) Start commuter rail in all our top 25 metro areas that don't have it, and light rail/trolley cars in the top 50 metro areas. Again, a federal/state/local tax funding mechanism.

This is something we know how to do-now. We don't have to wait for some new, future technology to be developed. Plus it would have many benefits:
1) reduced carbon inputs
2) transportation options
3) lower the cost of transportation for millions
4) slow oil subsidies to OPEC
5) slow use of nonrenewable oil
6) create permanent, good paying jobs in US
7) help reshape our urban/suburban environments away from car dependency
8) get lots of people walking again
9) add anymore you can think of

Anonymous said...

$4.65/gallon for premium here in tax-insane Long Island, New York

(the motorcycle doesnt like regular)

consultant said...

"I'm not too worried yet, It will hit the low earners in America and then head up towards the top. I have enough room in our income to cover any future raise in fuel."

No offense, but this frame of mind is typical.

When the "low wage" folks in America can't move about, our society is going to start to fall apart. Unless, of course, the "high wage earners" are going to start to move food from point A to B, cook and serve the food at restaurants, clean the bathrooms, etc.

America is woefully unprepared for what's coming.

Jon King said...

hurin...that is not how oil speculation works, people do not need to actually hoard the physical oil.

Institutional investors (hedge funds) can use index funds to bet on the future trends of a commodity such as oil, in the same way that such funds are used to track the performance of a stock market index like the FTSE.

Last week, the Senate commerce committee heard that the amount of money pumped into commodity-index investing has soared to $260bn this year, from $13bn in 2003.

Institutions are piling in on one side of the market and they have sufficient weight to trigger a phony increase in the price of oil.

Yoski said...

If $4/gal doesn't get your attention maybe rationing will! I am thrilled that all those losers driving trucks and SUVs get hit hard.
This morning at work I had a hard time finding a spot to lock up my bike. So about 5 out of 1000 people that work in the same building as I do now come to work by bike. Up from 1 out of 1000 a year ago.
We need bike lanes and more public transportation instead of those ridiculous stimulous checks.

edd said...

7,000-million people;
where do they all come from ?
7,000-million people;
what's left when they are gone ?

vanilla ice said...

"There is now the distinct possibility of a simultaneous sell-off in global bonds, equities and commodities."

That would be so nice!

Sharon said...

"What am I going to do?"...

Duhhh...get an ebike?

Anonymous said...

I live in LA but:
-3.5 miles to work
-1 mile to Whole foods
-Most of everything else I need is less than 3 miles away, including mountain biking.

I decided long ago that commuting 2 hours a day was not worth the cost, either in dollars or mental stress. Now I make almost as much money running a biz with my wife (soon more) with a fraction of the stress.

Hopefully everyone else gets there soon.

Mad Mike said...

To understand who he was, you have to go back to another time when the world was powered by the black fuel and the deserts sprouted great cities of pipe and steel. Gone now swept away. For reasons long forgotten, two mighty warrior tribes went to war and touched off a blaze which engulfed them all.

Without fuel they were nothing. They built a house of straw. The thundering machines sputtered and stopped. Their leaders talked and talked and talked. But nothing could stem the avalanche. Their world crumbled. The cities exploded. A whirlwind of looting, a firestorm of fear. Men began to feed on men.

On the roads it was a white line nightmare. Only those mobile enough to scavenge, brutal enough to pillage would survive. The gangs took over the highways, ready to wage war for a tank of juice. And in this maelstrom of decay, ordinary men were battered and smashed.

Except for one man armed with an AK-47, and a Honda full of silver. In the roar of an engine, he lost everything and became a shell of a man, a burnt out, desolate man, a man haunted by the demons of his past. A man who wandered out into the wasteland. And it was here in this blighted place that he learned to live again.

Anonymous said...

I have a 30 minute commute and drive a Prius. I am already enjoying the sudden lack of traffic. I currently spend $20/week on gas. I am going to really love it when gas gets up to $10.00 a gallon and only us Prius owners and rich people will be left driving around. My car has been emitting a lot more smug lately though.

Lost Cause said...

It's different this time.

aaron said...

Hey everyone! STOP LIVING IN THE SUBURBS. Live close to your job. There's a reason for cities. All this suburban madness was created by cheap oil and government subsidies for free highways. Take public transit, live in the ghetto... an area which will now become a middle class neighborhood. Everyone will consume less energy... this is the way it should be.

gk said...

I've come to the point that I don't feel bad for anybody in the US. We're getting what we deserve. We have collectively lived beyond our means for a long time. That time is over, and reality is going to be a hard pill to swallow for a lot of people. Some call me a pessimist. That's ok, those are the same one's that deny what's coming. They think it's bad now. Just wait.

Anonymous said...

Someone who I know that works at an RV dealership recently told me that business was down 50% from a year prior. Bad news when he has a family to support.

June 09, 2008 9:04 PM


I own a small camping trailer which I use often in the summer. I don't know about RV sales being down. Every time I go camping the places are packed, mainly with RVs, 5th Wheels, trailers.

And I was actually at Camping World a couple of weeks ago to have a lock changed. They didn't get to me for 2 days as it was so busy.

I don't doubt sales of new RVs are down. Sales of everything is down these days. But people are still going out and using what they have even at high gas prices.

Anonymous said...

Hey everyone! STOP LIVING IN THE SUBURBS. Live close to your job.

In case you haven't noticed the vast majority of jobs now are in the suburbs. At least in Atlanta, where I live. Most people now commute suburb to suburb or even city to suburb. I have lived in Atlanta 11 years and have had 3 jobs, neither of them in the city of Atlanta.My commute is 12 miles one way. I go into the city once or twice a month.

Even if I had to work in the city my choice would be this:

1. Spend $50 a week less on gas by living near work and live in constant fear of getting shot every day.

2. Spend $50 more a week on gas and live in a safe suburb.

Not a hard choice to make.

It's easy for a 27 year old single guy to save hey man live in the city near work in an apartment. Wait till you have a kid or two and you'll quickly change your tune.

Anonymous said...

If London speculators are driving the price of oil up, guess it will go back down. I haven't liked this whole century much, glass and steel boring as hell. Just as soon go back to the 1800's. Think I was re-incarnated from a little cabin in the Tennesse mountains, had a vegetable patch and some chickens. Things were quiet and beautiful. I was so much happier then. Think it was heaven. I don't know, just keep dreaming about it and longing to be back there.

Anonymous said...

It seems to me that if we pulled out of Iraq and redirected that gigantic pile of money into solar efficiency research, we'd be energy self-sufficient within 5 years.

At the very least we'd be doing something useful with the money.

Anonymous said...

Hey everyone! STOP LIVING IN THE SUBURBS

Real smart. Everyone is going to cram into the cities that are already overcrowded and polluted with permanent brown air.

real power said...

O Oil

P Panic

E Exploiting

C Camel Jockey

Anonymous said...

Hey everyone! STOP LIVING IN THE SUBURBS. Live close to your job.


-----------------------------

geez moron, there are very few jobs, outside of retail, in city centers. I live in the suburbs of portland and I have numerous employers within 5 miles.

Anonymous said...

"...killing the economy and forcing millions into poverty is just cruel and in the end, serves no one..."

Psst: you really meant "only a few"; didn't you?

Anonymous said...

It's funny how some morons think high energy prices won't affect them. It affects the entire economy. Even if you have a home business, a recession can put you out of business. Unless you're a doctor or in some other profession that is recession proof, you can lose your job or business.

Voldemort said...

"Whatever am I going to do?"

First, whatever is causing the current run-up in oil prices, it's not peak oil. Sure, we are at peak oil, but the massive increase in prices happens AFTER peak oil, when the supply-demand curves diverge. Peak-oil induced price increases haven't even started yet.

Second, twenty years ago, in college, I read a book called "The Next 100 Years" that really laid it out, peak oil included. It predicted peak oil some time between 2005 and 2010, and it seems as if we're there right on cue. So four years ago I got rid of my car and decided to convert to an mostly bike-based lifestyle (sure, I have to rent a car from time to time to travel long distances, but I'm not a religious zealot about it). Last summer I converted all of my retirement savings into non-dollar denominated investments (Euro Pacific Capital). Last September I took a job in a city on the big rail line that goes up the east coast, and rented an apartment four miles from work, so I can walk if I have to. Last November I sold all my stocks. Don't get me wrong, I'm feeling some pain from the ripple effects of high gas prices on food and other things, but it's muted--I'm not running around in circles waving my hands in the air crying "Whatever will I do?"--and I'm pretty well situated to ride out any coming economic collapse, except that I don't have a vegetable garden yet (hard to do with an apartment).

All of this was completely predictable, and has in fact been predicted for decades. Reacting with surprise and alarm now is like reacting with surprise and alarm at the first snowfall because you didn't realize winter was coming.

john.1.clarkson said...

The price of gas is killing me. I am having to downgrade my family's groceries, eat out less, and reduce the price of gifts that I buy for my family. Our vehicle does not have the best fuel economy either, so it will be hard to sell if I try. Where is it going to end?

Anonymous said...

"Oil prices seep into asphalt costs, detour road work"

Shale oil makes great roads

"When will the 1st idiot arrive and say that drilling in Alaska will solve the problem. LOL."

More oil equals less shortage, simple math. ANWR has a boat load of oil, no one disputes that. ANWR is just one part of the solution.

"Tar sand, oil shale and ethanol are a joke."

As Canada coolly pumps out 1 million barrels per day at under $20 per.(ethanol from food is dumb, ethanol from Bio-mass is good).

"I'm all in favor of it. Whatever it takes to get these damn bully pick up truck drivers off the road."

I read that that a lot?????

"At $4/gallon it's still one-half to one-third what the rest of the developed world pays,"

Those other places get free healthcare from those gas taxes. Do the math, they are getting a better deal!

"Someone who I know that works at an RV dealership recently told me that business was down 50% from a year prior. Bad news when he has a family to support."

More to come...some people won't put two and two together until it hurts them in the pocketbook.

Just some observations,
GT Charlie

Anonymous said...

Original 2004 Noodles :P

All this crap we deserve...Children and old people will suffer first...Crime is rising BUT it's in time of need and anxiety that people tend to rise.

Hence it's a bitter pill that is necessary to make things better...Of course it's easy for me to say being I'm neither a child nor an older American nor robbed yet...But that's the reality.

Anonymous said...

My gas bill is $60 per month for my Japanese car that never breaks down. I live 8 minutes from work. Supermarket is less than a mile away, full gym in the building, and on weekends I spent my time on the beach right in front of my condo, either kite surfing or just enjoying all the topless babes around. My car insurance is $400 / year.

You voted two oilmen into office twice, so now you deserve a Hussein to screw you even more. I didn't vote for both and won't vote for your pseudo-Messiah, sold my home at bubble peak in 2005, used the tax free money to buy property overseas and invest wisely, renting an oceanfront condo for $950 since then, pulled all my money out of the market way in advance by following Jim Rogers and Schiff's advice way back when no one even listened to them.

Who are you going to listen to re: presidential elections? Of course, you are going to follow the MTV Pot Smoking College Idiots who still live in their parents' basement, rappers, corrupt mainstream media, and ghetto America. Yep, Americans never learn. You deserve Hussein, after Bushco. Once again, I see disaster ahead and once again I've prepared accordingly. Schiff has been telling you all along that Hussein will be another disaster, but you guys know better, without having a tracking record to fall on. Just like your candidate who doesn't have any tracking record in the Senate either, only empty speeches written by someone else and a teleprompter to spit them out. Nevertheless, I understand this is the new America where common sense and logic are rare commodities. So be it.

Anonymous said...

It gets better. I just read that some nonprofit group, that helps the homeless, wants to place homeless drug addicts and alcoholics in foreclosure homes across the country. According to the genius heading the nonprofit, they have approached Obama about it and he's in favor. Good luck with all those crackheads living in the neighborhood and trying to steal stuff from your house to buy crack.

larry said...

"None of you should care if gas is $4 or $40 a gallon with all your wealth."

having money doesn't mean that the cost of gas means squat!

I've read that a barrel of oil does the work of 70 men so if the price of oil keeps going up labor, which used to me dirt cheap, gets more and more expensive.

And those "with money" like to keep it invested and as prices go up, it's like a cue ball which breaks up "investments" and it's also a friction which keeps investments from growing so fast.

certain, those with money shouldn't be complaining but "being rich" is and addictive high like anything else!

aaron said...

"It's easy for a 27 year old single guy to save hey man live in the city near work in an apartment."

Typical American entitlement. You think you are entitled to live in a house with your mangy kids, have your wife drive a gas guzzling car and commute to Target. Guess what? Your lifestyle is gonna change. Maybe if you visited other countries where people conserve energy/resources, live in apartments, etc. you'd have a clue of how you're going to be living in the future. The suburbans will be ghost towns or plowed over...

corvinus said...

All this crap we deserve...Children and old people will suffer first...Crime is rising BUT it's in time of need and anxiety that people tend to rise.

Children are less costly than adults... heck, given the amount of money that degenerate Americanos spend on their dogs and cats, they may even be cheaper than pets now.

John S said...

"$10 dollars a gallon. I'm all in favor of it. Whatever it takes to get these damn bully pick up truck drivers off the road."

Stupid shit. Once the roads fall apart from lack of repair, my off-road SUV will be the only kind of vehicle able to get around. Your econobox will be pretty useless in 3 foot deep muddy ruts. Go rent Mad Max. No hybrids in that movie. And I plan to pay for the $800 fillups by charging dolts like you $150 for your monthly ride to the Super Walmart.

Reality said...

Anon 1:33am,

It's not speculation for companies that have fuel expense as top business expense like NWAirline to lock in fuel price. It's called sound business management, and being prepared. Would you call people signing up for 30yr mortgage speculating on interest?

The index longs have not been expanding much in the last 10 months. Look at the CFTC Commitment of Trader Reports. What's been happening is speculative shorts have been creamed and scrambling to reduce their short positions. That's what's been driving prices skyward. Now they are talking about having government to force pension funds to sell so that they can cover their short positions.

Anonymous said...

and the governmental treasoners still have my 200 mile a gallon bicycle illegal and the electric ones also and needing insurance, registration, inspections....................and foot tax........................

Anonymous said...

oskar....i had a dream that i was sleeping in a dumpster and was ground up by the trash removal truck many many times.......now they turn the refuse into bio fuels?????????????????????????????/ yet can you beleive the food waste.................

Anonymous said...

do not forget the molecular friction energy conversion subsidities....

Anonymous said...

id plant "my" front lawn in potatoes but the sherif may arrest me and fine the property for my overgrown lawn??????????????????????????/

Anonymous said...

The US, Mexico, Canada, North Sea, and Russia are all in decline.

I second that. A close contact familiar with the matter in Russia told me that production is in decline.

testseifried said...

Are you saying demand has quintupled since 2001 (which is what crude oil prices have multiplied by since then)?


To quote my dad (former geographic economics prof): "The demand for gasoline is inelastic" (what can I say, as a kid I watched the McNeil Lehrer news hour with him). In other words most people and businesses can't really choose to not buy gas. Unless you work from home you have to get to work (which on most places means driving). Driving your truck/etc to deliver whatever the heck it is you're selling, etc. So a small blip in supply or demand can have a major effect on prices. So yeah it can cause prices to quadruple. Sucks to be a commuter.

Anonymous said...

Price of oil has more than doubled in the last couple of years. Oil consumption has gone down a whopping 2%. That's right, 2%. Way to conserve America.

If you could double the price of whatever you're selling and loose 2% of the volume sold, wouldn't you just keep raising prices.