June 13, 2008

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day


Are you more or less worried about the global economy and your own economic situation than you were a year ago?

1) More worried - no way to escape this wealth destruction, and nowhere near bottom...

2) Less worried - got myself some popcorn and prepared, or think we're hitting bottom right about now...

37 comments:

Andrew from Russia said...

More worried than a year ago, less worried than half a year ago when everything was sinking but Russia was still all about "stimulating consumption". Now it's about "stimulating savings". Let's hope that the worldwide talk about tighter money finally materializes - otherwise that $150k nanoapartment would prove... err... a wise investment decision.

rich n fl said...

Definitely more worried especially down here in fl. There is nothing going on everyone I know has a problem with something financially. I am actually hoping for a hurricane to stimulate the local economy!

Anonymous said...

Well, I was less worried, since over a year ago, I paid off all credit card debt, paid off my car, and got as lean as I could...

However, now, I have to say I think my worries over a looming global OIL CRISIS make my housing worries look like nothing!! Anyway, I cam across some very scary information, that I want to pass along and get feedback on!! Can someone please shoot this down as a hoax or as overblown?!!!

Here is just a bit of of what worries me so...(from lifeaftertheoilcrash.net) Would love to hear your feedback Keith and HP'rs----

Life After the Oil Crash

"But I thought we had 40 years of this stuff left-??!!

The issue is not one of "running out" so much as it is not having enough to keep our economy running. In this regard, the ramifications of Peak Oil for our civilization are similar to the ramifications of dehydration for the human body. The human body is 70 percent water. The body of a 200 pound man thus holds 140 pounds of water. Because water is so crucial to everything the human body does, the man doesn't need to lose all 140 pounds of water weight before collapsing due to dehydration. A loss of as little as 10-15 pounds of water may be enough to kill him.

In a similar sense, an oil based economy such as ours doesn't need to deplete its entire reserve of oil before it begins to collapse. A shortfall between demand and supply as little as 10 to 15 percent is enough to wholly shatter an oil-dependent economy and reduce its citizenry to poverty.

The effects of even a small drop in production can be devastating. For instance, during the 1970s oil shocks, shortfalls in production as small as 5% caused the price of oil to nearly quadruple. The same thing happened in California a few years ago with natural gas: a production drop of less than 5% caused prices to skyrocket by 400%.
Fortunately, those price shocks were only temporary.

The coming oil shocks won't be so short lived. They represent the onset of a new, permanent condition. Once the decline gets under way, production will drop (conservatively) by 3% per year, every year. War, terrorism, extreme weather and other "above ground" geopolitical factors will likely push the effective decline rate past 10% per year, thus cutting the total supply by 50% in 7 years.

These estimate comes from numerous sources, not the least of which is Vice President Dick Cheney himself. In a 1999 speech he gave while still CEO of Halliburton, Cheney stated:

By some estimates, there will be an average of two-percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a

three-percent natural decline in production from existing reserves. That means by 2010 we will need an additional 50 million barrels per day.

Cheney's assesement is supported by the estimates of numerous non-political, retired, and now disinterested scientists, many of whom believe global oil production will peak and go into terminal decline within the next five years, if it hasn't already. Source

Many industry insiders think the decline rate will far higher than Cheney anticipated in 1999. Andrew Gould, CEO of the giant oil services firm Schlumberger, for instance, recently stated that "An accurate average decline rate of 8% is not an unreasonable assumption." Source Some industry analysts are anticipating decline rates as high as 13% per year. Source A 13% yearly decline rate would cause gobal production to drop by 75% in less than 11 years.

If a 5% drop in production caused prices to triple in the 1970s, what do you think a 50% or 75% drop is going to do?

Estimates coming out of the oil industry indicate that this drop in production has already begun. Source The consequences of this are almost unimaginable. As we slide down the downslope slope of the global oil production curve, we may find ourselves slipping into something best described as a "post industrial stone age."

Anonymous said...

I wasn't worried last year. I'm not worried now. Only people worried are fools like HPers who think the world is about to end every year. How'd that Y2K disaster go for everyone? Wasn't the end of the world supposed to happen at midnight on 1/1/2000?

resisting husband said...

I dont know about the global economic situation, but my own one sucks. I just graduated from college, and so did my wife. We are both having trouble finding a job.

Housing bubble unintended consequence number 4063 got my wife:
She is a credentialed teacher and normally there is a shortage of teachers where i live, but the schools base their hiring on housing starts, presuming houses = kids = teachers. Unfortunately, the true equation was houses = flippers = no kids = no houses.

So anyway, no more housing starts, no new kids, and no need for teachers. the entire graduating class is screwed because no district is hiring.

pretty in pink said...

Side topic that I wanted to share with HPers.
Last night I watched a program on TV, were the moderator introduced 2 Arab guys in suits and ties as ‘Arab moderates’ it was a discussion on why Arab moderates are not heard from. This is the second show of this type I’ve seen this year..
I found something that is pretty scary.

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS AN ARAB MODERATE.

But but but, not all Arabs are extremists.. OK please let me explain.

In both instances of the supposedly ‘Moderate Arab view’ the speakers were polished dressed in western attire, spoke softly with good English accents, but that’s how far it went, their message was one of killing and death coated in a popular word called ‘peace’.

When the show was over I realized something very scary, the only distinction between extreme and moderate Arabs is the tone of their message.
Arab extremist: express their views with anger, rage and act on it.
Arab moderates: hide their anger and rage and act in a soft tone.

The Middle East is fu@ked for good…

Keep pumping at the gas station! Select cash, debit or credit..

Sad but true..

American People ARE Sheeple... said...

More worried, but locked and loaded...

xxxooo said...

I've been through downturns before so I'm not worried. This one might be worse but my attitude and expectations were hardened in the past; so, for the past 3 to 4 years, I've focused on getting to know myself and the things which make me happy.

I particularly like playing the piano, guitar and individual sports and, of course, blogging here and there.

Anonymous said...

Once the election boiled down to the two dimmest bulbs, more worried. Funny thing, when one or the other advances in the polls, I don't feel better. I just don't feel much worse when Mc Cain does well than I do when St. Barry does.

Best investment tip right now:

Invest heavily in Astroglide, Anusol, Vaseline, K-Y, and even Crisco. When what will be known as really the worst president ever takes office, we will all need a little something to ease what the Federal Government will do to us.

Anonymous said...

What's the point in worrying yourself to death over something you have no control over? If the economy collapses, we will all be in the same boat.

Anonymous said...

Keith,

The LORD is my shepherd, I shall not want..

Anonymous said...

I'm not worried. House all paid for, free and clear. All I have is the annual property tax. Got $350,000 in the bank, with another $225,000 in 401K that can be liquidated at any time. Wife drives the Escalade but I prefer the BMW 73I, with its excellent acceleration and all. right now, an HP fan watching from the sidelines with my popcorn, of course. Oops, got to run. My psychiatrist session is about to start in another hour. He says my problem with being a compulsive liar is improving.

Tanker said...

More worried. The credit bubble deleveraging is just beginning. This recession is gonna be a doozie.

800 Billion per year in mortgage equity withdrawal evaporating, tighter lending standards, a Fed debasing the currency. It's not gonna be pretty.

AmazingRuss said...

Not worried at all. I accepted what was coming about a year ago. Now I'm following the advice of an accidentally wise man:

"I don't know what's gonna happen, but I just wanna have my kicks before the whole shit house goes up in flames."

and the ever popular:
"You come from nothing. You go back to nothing. What have you lost? Nothing!"

gutless and lazy shaking his groove thing said...

Short term, less concerned (until 2009). Longer term 2009 => more concerned.

Fed Gov't doing all it can to avoid the painfull truth this year : we are over spent and in massive debt.

Best case scenario is a long, grinding economic malaise. Worst case scenario is a large corrective recession and some systemic financial shocks in 2009/2010.

AJ said...

Less Worried. I know we are far from bottom, but I am renting with my cash in the bank and ready for the big show. There will be blood in the streets.

xxxooo said...

"So anyway, no more housing starts, no new kids, and no need for teachers. the entire graduating class is screwed because no district is hiring."

what subject does she want to teach? I stopped becoming a teacher after student teaching and started focusing more on EE and MATH, my first too loves.

The fact that Minneapolis lays off its teachers every year and that hundreds of folks get licenses every year also made job prospects look bleak.

I'd get a license but I see BIG changes ahead in education and hope that accredidation (degree granting) is finally seperated from learning methods (i.e. attending class would be one method).

Personally, I just started learning piano and made sure that I chose a coach rather than a teacher and everything's working out great.

I actually started these lessons after working hard on my own for 18 months; thus, I'm going for accredidation since the teacher has good ears (hears mistakes) and oozes with artisitic talent.

so now I'm trying to incorporate that.

it's a great partnership and a lot more interesting than the traditional "command/control" approach.

I should also mention that I concluded that learning via classes was "time inefficient" due to the required commutes, homework sets and testing schedule since I never had time to think about what I was learning.

hence, I implemented an "every other week" piano lesson schedule; this choice has given me the time I need to stay in touch with my own creativity and goals!

Lady Di said...

I am concerned but prepared.

Plan for the worst, hope for the best, and move on. Life is too short.

Anonymous said...

I'm feeling like a snapping turtle being spit-roasted over an open flame.

Donald said...

The economy is excellent. Last night, I went to Game Stop to purchase Metal Gear Solid for my PS3, and they were all SOLD OUT. Then I went to Target next door, and they were also SOLD OUT. If people are doing so poorly, how can they aford $60 video games???

So go ahead and keep preaching your doom and gloom. YOur falling on deaf's ears.

Anonymous said...

I'm ready. I live close to a creek, have a stash of food, guns, ammo, and water purifiers.

Anonymous said...

"Best case scenario is a long, grinding economic malaise. Worst case scenario is a large corrective recession and some systemic financial shocks in 2009/2010."

I think you have your best and worst cases backwards.

Anonymous said...

"Best case scenario is a long, grinding economic malaise. Worst case scenario is a large corrective recession and some systemic financial shocks in 2009/2010."

I think you have your best and worst cases backwards.

devestment said...


"The economy is excellent. Last night, I went to Game Stop to purchase Metal Gear Solid for my PS3, and they were all SOLD OUT. Then I went to Target next door, and they were also SOLD OUT. If people are doing so poorly, how can they aford $60 video games???
So go ahead and keep preaching your doom and gloom. YOur falling on deaf's ears."

June 13, 2008 6:56 PM

What demographic buys video games? My guess is they are under 30 males living at home, adolescents, or socially introverted isolationists. Hardly a sector of the economy that I would use to gauge housing sales, money supply, or even consumer sentiment.

Anonymous said...

Anon 2:28 PM

I would not worry. We are quickly running out of conventional oil. But the world, especially the US, have enormous unconventional reserves like oil shale. Coal has been converted to gas and diesel since WW2, the US has the world's largest coal reserves. The energy is there we just need to go get it. I have mentioned this site before:


www.AmericansForJobsAndEnergy.org


Momentum is building. This is not just a gas prices petition. They are gathering support for S. 2958, the American Energy Production Act. This is an actual, real live Bill that has been introduced:
http://www.opencongress.org/bill/110-s2958/show

We have an opportunity to support something immediate. The Bill is not just about more oil, it also includes high mileage diesel cars, research into better battery technology for electric cars, etc.

Good Time Charlie

Mammoth said...

"I don't know what's gonna happen, but I just wanna have my kicks before the whole shit house goes up in flames."

- Jim Morrison (of the DOORS)

Anonymous said...

looking forward...this could be just the slap in the face my generation and their kids need to make us tolerable again. Could it spell the end of solipsism, egotism, materialism, and entitlement, at least for a decade? That boot up the ass of the 'me' generation will be very painful, but it's just what the doctor ordered. Here's hoping...

Anonymous said...

I agree! The coming oil crash will make us forget all about housing!!

Not one to buy into conspiracy theories, but I did check out that site--

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/


and I too, am very worried that no one is taking this as seriously as we need to!!!

Quentin Daniel said...

More worried. At one time I believed foreign investments would shield me from an economic collapse in the U.S. but I am beginning to believe the whole world will be affected in a similar fashion.

I continue to buy gold and silver coins and bullion. I need to start my food and water stockpile. And oh yeah, though I've never owned or even held or shot a gun, I need to make that purchase. Best be prepared for anarchy.

Can anyone direct me to Galt's Gulch? Do they have wi-fi there?

Anonymous said...

"post-industrial stone age" is a little over the top. The sun bathes the earth in more energy in 30 minutes of every day than is produced by humans in one year!

Peak oil or this price run up (because there really is no peak oil) is the best thing that can happen at this point. It helps to put far better options in the table for energy production:

The sun

It'll still be bathing the earth in energy long after the human race has had its time in the limelight. And long after all the radioactive waste has finally decaed.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
I'm not worried. House all paid for, free and clear. All I have is the annual property tax. Got $350,000 in the bank, with another $225,000 in 401K that can be liquidated at any time. Wife drives the Escalade but I prefer the BMW 73I, with its excellent acceleration and all. right now, an HP fan watching from the sidelines with my popcorn, of course. Oops, got to run. My psychiatrist session is about to start in another hour. He says my problem with being a compulsive liar is improving.



HAHAHAHAHA, if the shit hits the fan your money will be good for only one thing - wiping your ass...

Anonymous said...

I'm not worried. As a result of my conservative life style for 40 years, I am retired, have no mortgage, have more money than I know what to do with in solid investments (not real estate), live cheap in Florida and have
several guns and supplies.
Both my kids have bullet proof jobs in healthcare/ food supply, not any fru fru jobs.

I have lived thru the 62 Cuban Missile Crisis with people building bomb shelters ( we survived)

The JFK Assasination (we survived)

Vietnam (I survived)

USSR (we survived)

73 and 79 oil crisis (not only did we survive, but oil became plentiful after demand dropped off due to conservation (55 mph)

83 Savings and Loan collapse ( I lost some money, but made it all back)

87 Stock Market Drop (Black Tuesday) a few years later I made more money than ever

91 Housing Crash (I broke even)

98 Long Term Hedge Fund crash ( I made money)

2001 911 we all survived

2006/2007 What is any different today? - the media throws it in our face every friggin day.

Have some balls, If you fucked up - deal with it, otherwise let her ride.

Anonymous said...

less worried. inflation is finally kicking wall street's arse, so rates should go up.

Anonymous said...

Absolutely more worried. Not only has the economy turned down, but now some of the best cornfields here in the Midwest look like lakes.

Kenduffelsniffenspotzen

Anonymous said...

Anonymous Donald said...

The economy is excellent. Last night, I went to Game Stop to purchase Metal Gear Solid for my PS3, and they were all SOLD OUT. Then I went to Target next door, and they were also SOLD OUT. If people are doing so poorly, how can they aford $60 video games???

So go ahead and keep preaching your doom and gloom. YOur falling on deaf's ears.
==================================
I hate to burst your bubble Donald. But the reason they were sold out was because they only had the cash to buy one or two from the distributor. Give 'em a week or two to buy another copy or two from their distributors---maybe they will even get a loan from somewhere to buy three next time.

George L said...

the so called "oil crash" is still about 20 years or so from here.

what we have at this moment is a "oil panic" created to make obscene profits(if there is such thing) by all the investment companies that are losing billions to sub prime loans.

oil is a bubble also,and though we won't see $3 a gallon anymore,we won't see $8 a gallon either.

bottom feeder in philly said...

Damn right I am worried. We own a bunch of low income rental properties,(with real good cash flows) and a few small used car lots. So far business is better than ever because of the fact that we sell cheap fuel efficient cars, and our rentals are a lot of rooms and efficiencies. Cars are selling and vacancies are low. There is always a good market at the bottom of any market, no matter how bad the economy. At the moment so far so good. The things scaring me our energy. We are currently converting buildings so that we do not pay heat or electric on any building we own. The tenants will pay their own utilities. I hope they can afford them. We are selling 2000 to 4000 dollar fuel efficient cars like crazy. Many people are turning in their new cars, getting rid of the car payment, and buying cheap cars they can afford. It seems that many people may be waking up and leaving within their means. The amount of high end cars going through the wholesale dealer auctions is up 20 to 25%. It seems many people are walking away from their payments. The rental market on low cost housing is booming. Higher priced rentals are sitting around just like 500k houses. In my local market homes under 250K, priced at a nice discount are stil moving well. 350k and up is dead and prices are down around 10 to 15%. This is in a very desirable Philly suburban area. Sales are pretty stagnant. In a few more months it will be a great time to pick up a few short sale properties that will be great cashflow properties. The P/E ratio is getting better. Truth be told I think I'm cautiously excited. You can make fortunes in bad marketsif you play your cards right.