The Pesky Reality (LA home prices):
The Ignorant REIC Quote:
"I think we will see months of gains and then maybe retreat a little bit. I think we will be bouncing along a bottom for a while"
- Leslie Appleton-Young, the shockingly still-employed chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, June 2008
(So, how many months or years will the realtors keep calling bottom until they realize they have absolutely no credibility left?)
44 comments:
The egos of the people in the nicer areas offset the 50%+ declines in places like south central.
Funny how sales are so slow in the nicer hoods. I also think there are more of the Option ARMs in those neighborhoods used by people who traded up in 2004-2006.
The cancer will spread. Give it time.
Yesterday I went to look at a small house in an area where I would like to live.
The Realtor was a nice enough guy and seemed to be less pushy than most people in his line of work, but he still felt compelled to drag out things like, "I think we're pretty close to the bottom, and this is a pretty nice price for this house based on what other houses around here are listing for".
I am over the debating stage with these people and usually just counter with, "the market needs to flatten for a comfortable length of time and the economic news has to get better before a bottom can be called, and that those other houses and many others like it will be listing at the price of this house in the next couple of years".
Anyway, the house was a foreclosure and needed way more work than I was prepared to handle. It had a lot of things going for it, but it was smaller than I would like, and I sensed a money pit once I started to dig into the re-hab work.
Move-in ready houses or ones that need minor TLC, at 1998 prices, will be all over the place in a couple years. My advice is to wait and save your money unless you can find a real desperate person just looking to unload. Pay cash if you can and tell those lenders. "no thanks" to the "dead pledge"...
BE SURE TO CHECK OUT MY NEW BOOK: "HOW TO CALL BOTTOM IN THE REAL ESTATE MARKET AND PROFIT FROM IT!"
PEOPLE THAT BOUGHT THIS BOOK ALSO PURCHASED: "HOW I TOPPLED FANNIE AND FREDDIE."
Just like a recession call, if you call it often enough and long enough, eventually you'll be right.
NO MORE GRAPHS, NO MORE CHARTS
WE CANNOT TAKE THESE LIES AND BULLSHIT ANY MORE.
IF SHE IS SO SURE ABOUT 'WHAT SHE THINKS' ASK HER IF SHE IS WILLING TO BET HER MISERABLE LIFE IN IT...
PUNISH THE GUILTY LIARS ALL OF THEM
Mortgage apps up 12.5%
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080611/
mortgage_applications.html
Keep talking doom and gloom morons
Speaking from the Atlanta perspective, a year from now we'll have a hard time finding many of the realtor/brokers that were working during the epic run up to this epic housing meltdown.
But two good places to look might be the strip clubs (we've got lots of them) and bank teller jobs (tells you something about our financial system).
I know this is off the subject, but if you go in our banks, it's hard to say if the banks are recruiting in the strip clubs or the strip clubs are recruiting in the banks. Maybe we'll have a strip club bubble.
It's funny, when prices were going up quickly I was telling everyone it wouldn't last and they all said I was stupid for waiting it out. Now all those same people are saying it won't get worse and I'm saying it will. I love being right.
Leslie must have studied at the Lawrence Yun school of economics. A 16 pack of crayons with every degree.
Here in HB Ca., there are still residents hanging onto the dillusion that price decreases are a deal that buyers shouldn't pass up, when in fact, prices are dropping because they are still too inflated - back to the norm.
"Java Jungle" on 9th Street (HB. residents will know where this is) is often frequented by residents talking about housing related topics - alot of which is hot air.
What was once boastfull pride is now turning to conversations of fear and doubt - welcome to reality folks, we're not immune just because we live close to the beach.
We have a long way to go in pirce drops here along the coast before prices are even close to normal.
I wonder how this is all impacting the smart people who bought in Temecula or Norco to commute to Orange County? Let's see $5 a gallon or maybe $10 then what?
That whole buying in the boondocks was contingent on the fact gas would remain cheap forever....whoops.
Dear Leslie,
If we are at the bottom, why are you still digging?
Devestment
Los Angeles
Guys, use http://www.votesmart.org/search.php to search by zipcode and call your House Representative and your two worthless Senators and say IMPEACH. It only takes 2 minute per call and you'll feel a lot better. Bush JUST admitted in UK to being anxious to invade Iraq. The spring has come out of the sofa folks. Tell you family and friends. Don't sit around at a moment like this.
See the article here: http://tinyurl.com/66eemm
When you hear these statements it is important to ask what metric they are talking about. Is it sales volume or prices bouncing aloing the bottom? Indeed, sales volume is and will increase over the summer, and probably retreat in the fall (typical seasonality). These REIC shills often don't specify which they are talking about, and in this case, giving the impression that PRICES have bottomed out.
consultant,
I am in Atlanta too and I had to chuckle at your comment. There is a Bank of America in Sandy Springs where I swear every teller is a 9 or 10. And I always think to myself why the hell are these hotties working for $8 an hour in a bank when they could be making $2K a night on the pole.
Aside from that, I had to sound like a 'it's different here' whore, but it is. Atlanta had nothing like the bubble in Las Veags or Phoenix or Florida. I am renting right now but I don
t plan on staying in Atlanta too much longer and don't really care what happens here with house prices. I do see however a lot of "Sold" signs around. A lot more than this time last year.
Excellent point, Toby. Really, transaction volume is more important than pricing to Realtors now. Pricing has brought commissions down by 30% (I'm in PHX), but sales volume has killed commissions by 60% from 2005.
--Chet
Mortgage apps up 12.5%
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080611/
mortgage_applications.html
Keep talking doom and gloom morons
That is due to two things:
1) Refis as people are trying to stave off housing death.
2) People filing multiple applications to try to find someone to loan them money.
Keep your head in the sand and pretend everything is ok, jackass.
I hit a few open houses about once a month just for a laugh, and around here even the realtors are telling people this is a bad time to buy and wait another year.
Why they are holding an open house to tell people not to buy is beyond me. I guess they really are that dumb.
Mortgage apps up 12.5%
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080611/
mortgage_applications.html
Keep talking doom and gloom morons
Ooh, wait - they're up on a weekly basis. Wow. and that's compared to the week of the 25th which had MEMORIAL DAY.
So a week with FIVE busines days had 12.5% more applications than a week with FOUR business days.
Wow. that's great!
Oh hell yeah the sales are up!!!
THEY ARE MOVING THE FORECLOSURES & REO'S & DESPERATE SELLER'S THROWING IN THE TOWEL THAT ARE TAKING THE LOWBALLS !!
The knife catchers are everywhere
Mortgage apps up 12.5%
I applied because my bank begged me to.
Not in the market.
Actually, I'd look for more strippers at the bank soon. One of my friends is a stripper, and she says business is down at her club. Patrons don't spend as much as the used to, and tips are way down. I guess the HELOC party is over!
"Mortgage apps up 12.5%
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080611/
mortgage_applications.html
Keep talking doom and gloom morons"
You sound like a realtwhor cherry picking data. This is from Calculated Risk, please feel free to comment:
"The MBA reports that the Purchase Index increased 12.8 percent to 376.2 from 333.6 one week earlier. The four week moving average (removes the weekly noise) declined, and is at the lowest level since early 2003. Because of the changes to the index, we can't compare directly to 2003, but clearly the index is weak."
Obama should have know what all of us here at HP have known for years. Anyone associated with the executive levels of the REIC has a likelyhood of corruption in the closet.
Wow. Just. Wow.
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Keith, why do you keep harping on "credibility" with RealtWHORES as if it mattered?
Credibility NEVER mattered with them. Sellers only want them to sell their fucking homes. They didn't care about credibility as long as the house sold for at least the buyer minimum. And the buyers had to go through them anyway, so again, credibility wasn't a necessary item.
The one thing salesmen have in common is that they all LIE. Lying is a common practice in all sales. Even Americans with partial educations know this. So it applies to RealtWHORES.
You seem to think that there's going to be some sort of backlash against RealtWHORES after this housing bubble crashes then stagnates. No, there won't be. Their morality was never really in question. Their function was never really a surprise. They are SALESMEN, and they LIE, and in the next housing bubble that's EXACTLY what they are going to do. You're going to see RUGS that LIE LESS than RealtWHORES in the next housing bubble ... since rugs occasionally get taken up for cleaning or moving. But during a bubble, RealtWHORES lie ALL THE TIME. Night and day. They probably also tell lies in their sleep, just to keep that good ol' subconscious aligned with the frauds they perpetrate during the day.
Remember the ABCs of selling real estate: Always Be Concealing.
Also, it takes Brass Blogs to sell real estate.
I like when realtors say it's the bottom and the bottom's still falling out of the market.
I chuckle at these snakes.
"Mortgage apps up 12.5%
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080611/
mortgage_applications.html
Keep talking doom and gloom morons"
Looks like the housing recession/depression is over.
ha...ha...ha...ha!!
Bad news for those wanting lower prices on the Westside of LA -- the $2.5mm houses are still $2.5mm, at least for now. Prices down about 5-10% from the peak, and now flat to rising. This is based on ACTUAL SALES of $2.5mm and $2.8mm in 90024 -- ABOVE ASKING.
I want to believe things will change, but the UPPER end is holding FIRM.
The cancer is already spreading, and will be accelerating in the coming months.
It's beyond me how some people out there still believe we've "hit bottom", when prices are no where near what the majority of people can realistically pay on a month-by-month basis.
They'll eventually "get it" when prices keep sinking lower and lower - *back to realistic levels*.
For those of you who happen to be in Southern Ca., take a drive down Pacific Coast HighWay (while you still can) and you'll see more and more for-sale signs popping up all the time - especially here in Huntington Beach - you have to see it to actually believe it.
Just because someone tells me my home is "worth" so much, doesn't mean squat if I ever plan to sell -it's only worth what someone is
willing to pay, and my home here in HB (nor any other house here) is worth millions. Many of the newer couples who got into houses here are now stuck with huge monthly payments they can't even afford due to this over speculation in pricing - people here in HB are also getting pinched harder and harder by this unreasonable run-up in house prices.
Housing should never have become speculative.
Anonymous said...
The egos of the people in the nicer areas offset the 50%+ declines in places like south central.
Funny how sales are so slow in the nicer hoods. I also think there are more of the Option ARMs in those neighborhoods used by people who traded up in 2004-2006.
The cancer will spread. Give it time.
I live in the area referred to as the "upper end", and I can tell you that the few people who are buying won't mean squat in the coming months ahead - prices will indeed fall, it's inevitable.
I have to agree that some people here I speak with feel that this
area is immune (I guess there's a magic "force-field" protecting us or something in their minds), but I prefer to live in the real world and see the problem as one which makes no distinction from this place, simply because it's in a more "desirable area".
Bad news for those wanting lower prices on the Westside of LA -- the $2.5mm houses are still $2.5mm, at least for now. Prices down about 5-10% from the peak, and now flat to rising. This is based on ACTUAL SALES of $2.5mm and $2.8mm in 90024 -- ABOVE ASKING.
I want to believe things will change, but the UPPER end is holding FIRM.
Bad news for those wanting lower prices on the Westside of LA
UPPER end is holding FIRM.
In 1987 I bought in Venice (West LA) for $137k, Sold in 89 for $335k. In 1991 after the collapse and Rodney King riots it was worth about $165k. The real pop didn’t happen until the administration change. After the pop, homes in affluent areas (where I live now) that were marked at about 25 to 35% off the peak prices sat on the market for two years.
In this last run up my Venice shack ran up just over a million. It's going to be worth about half of that a year into the administration change, not to mention the posibility of more race riots in our angry city
That 1991 bubble was local to California and not national. The current scenario is much worse. There are currently many inconsistencies in the economy.
High inflation/ low interest
Runaway govt. Spending/ low taxes
High home prices/relative low rents
Weak dollar/ heavy safe haven treasury investing
Leslie might know a thing or two about her boucing bottoms, but it has nothing to do with charts!!!
Mortgage application volume rose 10.9 percent during the week ending June 6.
Too bad the business week before only had 4 days in it. If you are going to troll with positive MSM spin at least pick something that has a tiny bit of credibility.
"That is due to two things:
1) Refis as people are trying to stave off housing death.
"
Nice try renter. Refis were up but new apps were up even higher.
The spin here is astounding. Mortgage apps up 12.5% you idiots dismiss it because Memorial Day.
Home sales up 6.3% last month you idiots dismiss it because, oh hell I don't even know why, but you had some reason I'm sure.
When sales are up 10% this month, you'll dismiss it because Obama won the nomination and ev everyone rushed out to buy a house in celebration. Makes as much sense as whatever excuse you all use.
Mitesh, you been seeing UFOs too?
.
Anonymous said...
The spin here is astounding. Mortgage apps up 12.5% you idiots dismiss it because Memorial Day.
Home sales up 6.3% last month you idiots dismiss it because, oh hell I don't even know why, but you had some reason I'm sure.
When sales are up 10% this month, you'll dismiss it because Obama won the nomination and ev everyone rushed out to buy a house in celebration. Makes as much sense as whatever excuse you all use.
June 12, 2008 6:35 PM
Blah, blah, blah... its because people are getting suckered into believing that this is bottom douche bag!!! They will soon realize they too fucked up when housing keeps heading south. "Sounds like your a fucking fliptard that got his ass handed to them..."
Oh, and "home sales up" in an already negative stat is still a NEGATIVE number...
Mitesh, you been seeing UFOs too?
So what if Dennis saw some UFOs? He'd be a much better president than any of the current candidates in the running. Dennis can have all the UFOs he wants. He can't be more delusional than the current president...
Bad news for those wanting lower prices on the Westside of LA -- the $2.5mm houses are still $2.5mm, at least for now. Prices down about 5-10% from the peak, and now flat to rising. This is based on ACTUAL SALES of $2.5mm and $2.8mm in 90024 -- ABOVE ASKING.
I want to believe things will change, but the UPPER end is holding FIRM.
sorry retard...only 4 houses have sold in the last 3 months in 90024.
Sounds pretty flaccid to me.
Anon 6:35,
Price decline on accelearating volume is not a bullish chart pattern.
In a gentrifying formerly working class town next to the town where I live, there is a REO with an asking price less than half of previous sale price in 2004. At this kind of price, it may actually be a decent rental property to buy.
"Anonymous said...
Mortgage apps up 12.5%
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080611/
mortgage_applications.html
Keep talking doom and gloom morons"
I am looking forward to your posts in 24 months when your houses are underwater 15% and will stay there for 5 or 10 years.
Just because apps are up doesn't mean anyone is getting ACCEPTED or has the down or FICO.
"There is a Bank of America in Sandy Springs where I swear every teller is a 9 or 10. And I always think to myself why the hell are these hotties working for $8 an hour in a bank when they could be making $2K a night on the pole."
They are going where the money is.
They are tellers, because they are populating their database of who has money, what they look like, how they walk, how they dress, what they drive, how they talk; so that later on they can snag the richest rube possible.
They are strippers because they can make $2k a night on the pole. They also goet to find out who has money, what they look like, how they walk, how they dress, what they drive, how they talk; so that later on they can snag the richest rube possible.
They are working both ends of the spectrum. The respectable types who bank, and those who go to strip clubs.
It is ALL about landing a moneyed man.
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