June 21, 2008

And then, right on schedule, the value of used trucks in America plummeted


Too bad we couldn't short Hummers and F-150's...

Used Truck Trade-In Values Plunge, Deepening Auto-Sales Decline

Plunging prices for used pickups and sport-utility vehicles are deepening U.S. automakers' sales slide, with Ford Motor Co. the latest company to feel the pinch.

Gasoline near $4 a gallon helped send prices for used large pickups and SUVs tumbling at least 21 percent in May, Atlanta- based Manheim Consulting estimates. That cuts trade-in values, pushing light-truck sales down 16 percent in 2008, compared with less than 1 percent for cars.

``Regular consumers don't need larger SUVs or pickups; it's a lifestyle choice,'' Standard & Poor's equity analyst Efraim Levy in New York said in an interview. ``If it's getting to be a bad investment, it's not worth buying a new one right now.''

31 comments:

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

We're adding a Land Rover to the garage, right beside my S550.

The suckers who can't afford gas now should've gotten off their asses and worked harder the last few years, like we did.

Suckers.

You have no one to blame but yourself. Your excuses are your own.

Anonymous said...

My husband is a used auto dealer here in Hawaii. Yesterday he was at the dealers weekly auction. There was an immaculate 2006 Range Rover Supercharged SUV with only 13,000 miles on it. Absolutely beautiful. Cost new was over $100,000. Current wholesale Kelly Blue Book on it is close to $60,000. It sold for $38,000.

Lost Cause said...

Remove the "Sportmen for Bush" sticker, and the value of the used truck goes up $1500.

I laugh at you a-holes.

eric in vegas said...

"There was an immaculate 2006 Range Rover Supercharged SUV with only 13,000 miles on it. Absolutely beautiful. Cost new was over $100,000. Current wholesale Kelly Blue Book on it is close to $60,000. It sold for $38,000."

Rovers already can't hold value well and with the price of gas going up it's hurting them even more. Plus, driving an out of warranty Range Rover is like owning a ticking financial time bomb. They're notoriously unreliable and if something goes wrong with it and it's out of warranty you can easily be looking at $5k or more out of pocket.

chslaxcoach said...

The suckers who can't afford gas now should've gotten off their asses and worked harder the last few years, like we did.

Actually, what I did was bought oil futures at $90 (via USO ETF) on March 8th. I don't drive very much and my car is small, so actually, as the price of gas and oil go up, I'm coming out ahead.

Democraatus said...

The only stocks rising lately are:
* lawyers
* stupidity
* foreclosures

Too bad none of them are listed.

Anonymous said...

Keith -

It is possible we have an oversupply of cars and especially trucks in the US? With so many well built cars lasting 10-15 years with out major problems is it possible we have too many cars built like we have houses? I heard on the news yesterday about the new F-150 model is not going into production and the next thing said is ford most likely will not be profitable in 2009! I always look at the dealerships when I pass by one. Filled with cars and trucks! Do you think there will be a brief time where there will be very few new cars made due to the oversupply of quality used cars?

Anonymous said...

TruckPANIC

Anonymous said...

All vehicles are "lifestyle" choices, but as we all know now,(even Greg Swann)America's "lifestyle" is changing!

RayNLA

6%? In Your Dreams said...

If you just slow down and consider the sticker price of new vehicles in general there is only one conclusion...They are all over-priced. I cannot imagine being in debt for a $35K depreciating time bomb (even during the "good" times) and its value falling to $10K in 2 years.

Keeping up with the Jones is sometimes the dumbest and worst decision you can make.

The pain is just beginning for the auto industry....The lease scam,under-coating scam,extended warranty scam & 80 month loan scam are all going by the common sense wayside...Good Riddance!

Anonymous said...

Lost Cause: you win!

Double bonus points if the bumper sticker is on some POS Hummer that gets 8 -10 mpg.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Keith -

It is possible we have an oversupply of cars and especially trucks in the US? With so many well built cars lasting 10-15 years with out major problems is it possible we have too many cars built like we have houses? I heard on the news yesterday about the new F-150 model is not going into production and the next thing said is ford most likely will not be profitable in 2009! I always look at the dealerships when I pass by one. Filled with cars and trucks! Do you think there will be a brief time where there will be very few new cars made due to the oversupply of quality used cars?

______________________________________________________________________

Anon-

It would be nice if you had a name but such is life...

For years I have been thinking about just what you said. Why not produce a new Model every 2 years? It's not like it was back in the 50's when they radically changed the design of a car every year so that everyone knew you got a new car. Today no one can tell the model years apart anymore and most don't care about the year of the car as much as the brand itself. If you keep your ride looking nice like most folks in SoCal It'll look new for years.

And about all those cars on the dealers lot...The manufacture makes the dealers keep all that inventory. You should see the sea of cars that any said dealer has parked on auxillary parking lots around the corner especially HUMMER

As far as over suppy, like housing they count on you buying more than one. But unlike housing cars can be shipped all over the world. A certain percentage of stolen cars in port cities end up in south America and other countries. Ever hear of someone who got their car stolen an it was never recovered?

RayNLA

Anonymous said...

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...
We're adding a Land Rover to the garage, right beside my S550.

The suckers who can't afford gas now should've gotten off their asses and worked harder the last few years, like we did.

Suckers.

You have no one to blame but yourself. Your excuses
______________________________________________________________________

Frank Frank Frank there you go again putting people down again. Attempting to make yourself feel good about yourself. It's not about what you drive Frank. Remember you are not in Scottsdale anymore bruh. Teenagers in Newport skip class in those cars man. No big deal... tell us about your new Veyron and we'll be impressed. And by the way, Leasing a Ford Explorer and a Chrysler Crossfire on steroids shows how smart you really are. I hope you like visiting the service department every 2 weeks as both of these cars are the most unreliable on the market. And make sure you don't piss anyone off in the service department as you find this to be true, or they will make sure you have to come back again only to tell you that "it's not covered under warranty".

Hey Frank (light wisper)at least the 6%ers were smart enough to lease a LEXUS!!!

RayNLA

k.w. - Southern Ca. said...

You are so correct!.

The prior posters remarking about what "great deals" they've gotten, along with "who cares about gas prices as long as you have alot of dough" are really full of themselves.

We'll see how their tune changes as we move deeper into 2008.


6%? In Your Dreams said...
If you just slow down and consider the sticker price of new vehicles in general there is only one conclusion...They are all over-priced. I cannot imagine being in debt for a $35K depreciating time bomb (even during the "good" times) and its value falling to $10K in 2 years.

Keeping up with the Jones is sometimes the dumbest and worst decision you can make.

The pain is just beginning for the auto industry....The lease scam,under-coating scam,extended warranty scam & 80 month loan scam are all going by the common sense wayside...Good Riddance!

Anonymous said...

We sold our SUV last year and took a 20% hit below bluebook. At least we got out back then.

It's just like housing, if you are selling right now, you waited too long.

kilgore said...

Hysterical interview on CNBC yesterday:

Joe Kernan was interviewing someone associated with the Winnebago Company (who just had a horrible quarter). Kernan asked:

"Have you considered trying hybrid Winnebagos?"

donald said...

"We're adding a Land Rover to the garage, right beside my S550."

So you lease 2 overpriced cars that have the worst reliability ratings of any car on the market... CONGRATULATIONS!

And up until just a few months ago, Land Rover was owned by Ford so little do you know, but you are just driving around in an overpriced Ford Explorer. It's a common tactic for car companies to sell the same exact car under different names.

formosan80 said...

Just and FYI, Land Rover is owned by Tata Motors.

Anonymous said...

What do you want to bet Greg Swann owned a truck?

Anonymous said...

But on the bright side, there is a bottom to this market. The local junkyard is buying scrap vehicles at $180.00 per ton. At least the value won't go to ZERO !!!

jim e said...

When they come off lease and the dealer gets them back...What then? Hope for two dollar gas?

Anonymous said...

Remember how Toyota and Nissan used to make those little pickup trucks? They were replaced with the Titan, tundra and other gas guzzlers just like sensible housing was replaced by McMansions. The stupid sheeple were brainwashed into thinking that they wanted giant trucks to go along with their giant houses.

Anonymous said...

SUV prices falling just like house prices?

The taxpayer financed bailout is just around the corner.

Anonymous said...

Buyers of luxury SUVs were always idiots to begin with. When the Lincoln Navigator first came out it priced around 40 grand to 50 grand loaded with everything and 4x4 option included.

Nevermind, the entire chasis was shared with a $12,999 base F-150 with rubber floors and a standard transmission.

Slapping some wood on the dash and covering the seats with ford leather does not justify that kind of price.

GM, Ford, and Chrysler will not be around in 20 years for sure; 10 years with hyperinflation if it really gets out of hand.

Anonymous said...

What Ford is doing with the Eco-Boost engine on their new 2010 F150 will help, but they need to do more.

http://gas2.org/2008/05/01/
six-new-technologies-will-
help-manufacturers-reach-
the-35-mpg-goal-without-hybrids/
comment-page-2/

Six New Technologies Will Help Manufacturers Reach the 35 MPG Goal (Without Hybrids)

1. Multistage oil pump
2. Shortened cylinder head
3. Variable compression ratio
4. Guided-spray turbo
5. Electromagnetic valve actuators
6. Hydraulic power electrification

The manufacturers been achieving high mileage in Europe and Japan for years now, so I expect to see it in the US eventually. Luckily, there are six exciting new technologies that are going to make it possible in the US.

Anonymous said...

It would be interesting to see if Ford join in on the Hybrid truck.

http://www.venturacountystar.com/
news/2007/aug/10/toyota-to-delay
-next-hybrids/?printer=1/

Toyota postponed plans for hybrid versions of its fuel-thirsty Tundra pickup and Sequoia sport utility vehicle, although the executives added that there is a chance Toyota would come out with big truck hybrids by 2013 or 2014.

Toyota cites fire danger with lithium batteries for delay.

GM and Chrysler LLC plan to launch hybrid large SUVs next year using a system developed jointly by GM, DaimlerChrysler AG and BMW AG.

http://www.autoblog.com/2007/09/06/
toyota-takes-a-shot-at-chevy-volt/

GM, however, has a trick up its sleeve. Following the announcement of a deal with A123Systems to develop lightweight and long-lasting lithium-ion batteries, GM may have its first E-Flex plug-in on the market by 2010.

http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/
sep07/5490

Safety is key, and it all comes down to preventing fires and explosions.

These catastrophes happen when a cell shorts out, gets hot, and starts an exothermic oxidizing reaction that kicks the temperature to hundreds of degrees Celsius in a fraction of a second.

The heat then shorts out adjacent cells to produce a runaway thermal reaction that can be spectacular (just ask Sony).

And, unlike a gasoline fire, the conflagration can’t be smothered, because it gets oxygen from the cell’s intrinsic chemistry.

Field failures occur once in every 5 million to 10 million of the most common lithium-ion cells, those known as the 18650 design, according to Brian Barnett, a technology analyst at Tiax, a consulting firm.

Of course, the more cells there are in a battery pack, the greater the chance of a problem. Although it’s clear that impurities introduced during manufacturing are largely to blame, the mechanism remains unclear.

There are several ways to make the new technology safe enough for cars.

One, perhaps transitional, approach is to link large numbers of small cells in networks—as the Tesla does—with safeguards to ensure that a problem in one cell cannot propagate to others.

A123 and some other start-ups instead chose to focus on the fundamental reactions in the cell.

Anonymous said...

Gas is $2.20 in Tijuana.

You can fill up your F150 for 60% less then what you pay in San Diego according to this article.

http://news.postbulletin.com/
newsmanager/templates/
localnews_story.asp?z=7&a=347645

Anonymous said...

Today no one can tell the model years apart anymore
---------------------------------
-sarcasm-
You mean the switch from black rear view mirrors to painted on 2003 Civic is not noticeable?
-/sarcasm-

Anonymous said...

Six New Technologies Will Help Manufacturers Reach the 35 MPG Goal (Without Hybrids)
-------------------------------
1. Li-Ion Battery
2. Aerodynamic body
3. Advanced DC electric motor
4. Low rolling resistance tires
5. Composite monocoque chassis
6. High gas prices...

Oh, wait, we have those things today. Hm, I wonder, do any of these BIG car manufacturers REALLY care about technology?

Anonymous said...

A lady in Texas bought 40K Toyota SUV a year ago. Gas prices took off and she decided to trade her SUV for a smaller car. She comes to a dealer where she bought it, and they offer her 19K for barely year old SUV. She says "no way Jose", and takes off steaming about those crooked dealers. Meanwhile gas prices keep rising. She figures even at 19K it's a good deal and comes back to the dealer couple of month later to trade in the truck for 19K. Now they say "no way Jose", and offer
her 9K instead.
True story.

Anonymous said...

Remember my bringing up that Messerschmitt car? If the carmakers want to stay in business they need to make something that is good on gas and affordable, not mess with hybrids with batteries that'll cause a spectacular wreck as the 20 gallons of gas gets torched by a lithium battery like a supermassive Dell laptop. A lithium battery hybrid is a terrorist's best friend. You can't extinguish a Class D fire (burning metal) and the result is a car bomb waiting for a jerk with the inclination to use it.

Given the credit crunch, dropping wages andnear-scrap SUV trade in values, an affordable car with good gas mileage is an imperative. The Messerschmitt was ahead of his time by 60 years.