You know the drill...
May 16, 2008
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A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
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106 comments:
fear. solidly fear.
Midpoint between Denial and Fear.
Between Fear and Desperation.
fear
Somewhere after fear but not quite real desperation as yet.
fear in the suburbs.
Denial in the "good neighborhoods" where the bigger egos will try to hold out the longest.
Panic stage
SUZZANNE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'M BANKRUPT, DIVORCED, UNEMPLOYED IN A WEEKLY MOTEL NOW!!!!!!
Panic at the disco as the mortgage brokers can't pay the bottle service tab
In Perth Australia (currently the most expensive real estate in the world) Euphoria with perhaps a tinge of Anxiety.
Gonna be a huge bang when this sucker blows.
definitely fear
I'm still seeing people in denial. unreal.
I think it depends where we live. In California, Florida and Phoenix, there is solid panic. People are trying to unload their crappy houses onto the market in great numbers. Definetely a sign of panic.
In New Jersey, for instance, we are between fear and panic. There are homes in the market, but most are still holding on.
My take is that when the jobs start to fade away, panic will set in and housing prices will crash in the North East.
Dny
Denial for most. Fear for those in parts of Fl and Ca.
Desperation...definitely not yet panic.....that's coming with the pick-a-pay option ARM crisis beginning 2009.
Those poor bastards are beyond help, many have ARM 2nds and HELOCs behind their exploding 1st ARM..
Now that's going to be panic... Hold on for a wild ride...and keep your treasure buried, avoid the falling knives all around you
The stock market went back up the curve to somewhere between denial and euphoria.
If your house is on the market, I'd say "Panic". The house across the street has been for sale since mid-January. Lots of yelling last week, then 2 police cars showed up. I wish they'd lower their price and get out of here.
Folks, party central for the housing bubble was never in S. FL or Phoenix - it was in "the OC" CA. Yep, mortgage alley, home to New Century Financial, Ameriquest, and a host of others.
Unlike other locales, they had so much punch in the punch bowl, folks have been a bit slow to stumble out the door. However soon there will be car wrecks up and down the street.
The OC has defined RE trends and prosperity for the last few decades - where the 1st national RE franchise began (Century 21), where Coldwell Banker is HQed... the list just goes on and on.
When the OC crashes that will be the fire bell in the night - and panic will ensue. I've been doing some research, pulling up docs from the title companies and here is some of what I see. Purchase date mid 2000 @ $375K (you don't need to ask the down payment, y'all know the drill). Home refi-ed at end of 2004, appraised at $840K, new 1st of $625K option ARM at 1% teaser, and negative accrual, new 2nd $125K with ARM ( all of these loans were with the Orangeman's Company - hey its OC after all), then they added a $50K HELOC to fund the negative cash flow - its now a rental unit. When the option period ends, the total payments will easily be over $100K per year - and the house probably valued at $550K (currently down to $720K) with liens accrued to $850K,
Anybody believe these folks are going to be paying $100K/ yr (or more, recall ARM financing)when the homes is totally underwater?
Another did the refi to the max game (option ARM, natz) and bought 5 homes in the San Joaquin Valley ( yes option ARM low teaser, of course). So here we have a cascading default scenario.
Bottom line, when the OC, RE Central for middle America, totally hits the skids - and that's coming - panic will set in. The "gains" have been so spectacular there, that there has been enough refi cushion to delay the pain.
When the OC strikes out (mighty Casey at the bat), everyone will know that the game is over and panic will ensue.
Watch what happens in the OC - that's the bellwether and signal for heading into your panic rooms.
you goons have been saying this for years now....same gibberish over and over, fear, fear, denial.
so when's the actual shit going to hit the fan already?
Somewhere around "Fear" is where everyone started living rent free form the banks.
Fear
I reiterate my objection to this scale as a way to measure the psychological state of the herd through the stages of a speculative bubble because it presupposes that people generally are at least somewhat informed or somewhat care.
Most people are neither informed nor care enough to qualify for any of the categories on this chart.
To the extent that the Amerikan people do fall somewhere on this chart, I would still have to say it's denial. The general populace will not realize that this is more than a temporary economic bilp until the MSM tells them so, and that will not occur until the stock market crashes.
Alternatively, there are people who have been directly affected by the housing cwisis (as Bawney Fwank would say). They have been fired or laid off, are facing a readjusting mortgage, can't get a mortgage, can't get a HELOC, or simply can't sell their house. These people must be in states of mind ranging from denial to despondency.
"Wow! Two Davids on American Idol!" "I wear my sports jersey while eating Doritos and watching NASCAR. I wear it basically everywhere." "The Chief Justice is Donald Rumsfeld, right?"
Denial, since they are manipulating the stock markets to distract the sheeple.
Tampa - 60% Denial. 40% Fear.
Real bargains aren't popping up in my specific area yet because the rental market is still decent thanks to the commands at MacDill Air Force Base and their role in the upcoming attacks on Iran before Bush leaves office.
One house (f*cked buyer poster child) entered foreclosure in my neighborhood, but the owner is confident he can argue for an extension with the court. Does anyone know if the courts are that sympathetic in FL?
Anxiety. We have a long way to fo.
Beignet
Fear.
Denial - prices don't reflect anything but complete denial. Every seller still thinks the buyers are thrying to get a "steal" when they lowball. Maybe the sellers should stop trying to steal from the buyer.
We've moved past denial to fear.
Some clue.........well no, not really! A little talk, not much. Still dead here.
For sale signs and empty houses are everywhere, but that's only because people are trying to leave to escape the outrageous property taxes. No failed flippers here!
The big unions (county, state, teachers) contracts are coming up for re-negotiations, and the union’s higher-ups KNOW what's coming down the pike, and are adjusting their so-deserved salary and benefit demands accordingly.
Fear. The next step should be "Panic" and then "Desperation". People will Panic then react in desperation.
DESPERATION!!!
"A former Arizona real estate agent is suspected in five armed robberies in San Luis Obispo County, including one of a real estate agent and another at a real estate office."
“He said, ‘Sorry dude, but I’m kind of desperate,’ ” the victim told police. The man was robbed of about $45."
http://tinyurl.com/6xw6p3
DOPES!!!
Between Denial and Fear. There is still a long, long way to go down.
Induce denial with a sprinkle of fear...
Optimism at the white house
Excitement at Blackwater
Thrill at the Federal Reserve
Anxiety at the gas pump
Denial at the NAR --perennially
Fear at the ECB
Desperation at bond insurers, retailers,some banks and homeowners
...
Optimism in the Garden
Doesn't seem like there are even
enough of us on the same page to graph us as one population...
mostly denial here in Maryland ... definitely
depends on the part of the country, mostly between fear and desperation, but in NYC, still in denial, Nassua and Suffolk counties, fear.
In the Wash DC 'burbs, we're somewhere between Fear and Desperation. You can start seeing homes listed for 50% of their former selling prices. The higher priced areas are trying to cling to some of their former fairy tail pricing, but those are sitting on the market longer and longer. Desperation will set in as those people have a tougher time paying the mortgage with gas for their two BMWs costing $4+ a gallon.
either between anxiety and denial or denial and fear.
Desperation. In my area the prices are starting to fall on the biggest homes. When a big house falls below the magic $500K threshold, it gets snapped up. But it must fall first. For smaller houses I have anecdotes of 10% discounts to the asking price.
Capitulation for these people we know. They filed for Bankruptcy recently but think they can save the house from foreclosure.
And yes, they did refinance themselves into the abyss. Fun while it lasted I guess.
With the piss poor MSM stating that the credit crisis is over, I think we are firmly entrenched in DENIAL. Still.
Don't all of you get sick of your crystal ball bogus predicitions of doom? I guess you were prediciting this too.....
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Construction starts on new U.S. homes rose by a surprisingly strong 8.2 percent in April
We're at the fear stage, Keith.
I need to photograph and send you a sign posted in front of a local bank just to prove the point.
Moving to panic very fast now......... that stimulis check was gone the second I had it. Can I get another?
The problem with just about everyones commentary and even this graph is it indicated that this is part of a cycle. A bubble is not a repeating cycle, it's a one way street. When dot.com values went from $120 a share to $4 a share and are today at $5 a share, it's not something to try to find an opportunity to try to buy at "the bottom". We are returning to normal valuations, once we return after another 30 to 40% drop, housing value will basically keep pace with inflation. In other words, it will have a real return of zero. There are no "opportunities". People keep thinking of this has a stock market boom/bust cycle. A bubble again is a linear path straight to the pavement.
I'm in Austin,TX...yee haw!
Up until yesterday, I truly believed we were moving quickly from Desperation to Panic.
Not anymore. I think Austin is somewhere between Euphoria and Anxiety.
Reason being....I just spoke with a friend who is a homeowner in the outskirts of town(South Austin, just south of the Ben White highway, LITERALLY butted up against the rail road tracks, so 3rd rate property IMO)
They just got a tax apprasial from the city saying their home is now worth 190k. That means they get to pay the 10% max increase in taxes! But that's not the point.
Last year this same letter said 125k, and they bought it in 2005 for 110k.
So it seems that Austin real estate is experiencing hyper-appreciation, over 50% in ONE YEAR! We're gentrifying some shady parts of town and the potential condo-glut is of Florida porportions.
Austin is always behind the curve, and I don't see this playing out well, but I'll have to be patient and wait until we follow the rest of the nation.
until then.....
FEAR IS IN THE AIR!
Oh shit, more inventory comming down the pike.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/17/business/17housing.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Fear - love you K!
fear/desperation.
Just read the news today. They are all happy about more condos and apartments under construction. Hilarious! We need even MORE! I guess this means rents should decline more.
"So it seems that Austin real estate is experiencing hyper-appreciation, over 50% in ONE YEAR!"
Yep, I just got my appraisal too. Its appraised 100K higher this year. 325 => 425. But the new laws cap the tax at a 10% increase per year. A 31% increase in home value.
Texas law restricts equity take out such that you can only spend it on the house.
Don't all of you get sick of your crystal ball bogus predicitions of doom? I guess you were prediciting this too.....
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Construction starts on new U.S. homes rose by a surprisingly strong 8.2 percent in April
------------------------------
well, you didn't answer the question but I would guess you are in denial.
What the housing start numbers mean is more inventory coming down the line. Just because more is built doesn't mean more will sell. If anything it means that prices will fall as there is more supply.
Fear. It feels like fear. I've been saying denial for quite a while but, unfortunately for two of my married couple friends, they no longer have the luxury of denial.
They aren't going to financially make it and foreclosure is now discussed by them openly. It's happening. It's really happening.
It makes you sad but, to be honest, I knew they couldn't afford their houses, but my wife kept telling me, "You think you know these things, and you don't."
When one of them called sobbing to her, though tempted, I never once said, "Told you dear.....told ya"
It's kinda sad, but I am amazed how perfectly they followed the diagram to financial disaster:
1)Think your house is an ATM
2)Run up enormous debt on the credit cards.
3)Act like you're rich, when in fact you just owe a lot of money.
At a prominent local realtor, I am seeing "Foreclosure Sale" on his office's billboard. Don't recall seeing that before last winter but I see it all the time now.
you goons have been saying this for years now....same gibberish over and over, fear, fear, denial.
so when's the actual shit going to hit the fan already?
The sh@t will hit the fan about half way into the next administration.
Question… Why would you watch us for years?
Fear? Anxiety? Denial?
I would like to report a phase forecast of mostly fear in the nation. With some pockets of denialbility in a few locations like NYC. 100% chance of all fear in the next 3 months.
Center of mass of the bell curve is solidly at fear. The one's most immediately/directly affected are at desperation, but there is still a "fat tail" of morons stuck in denial and it will take total financial destruction of them to dislodge them.
FLASH:
House nears consensus on mortgage bailout. Bush throttles back "veto" rhetoric. Downward momentum slows on housing and Freddie/Fannie stocks. Big money pours in to GSEs, squeezing short sellers.
In other news:
HPers net worth continues to decline. Still banashed to mom's basement.
I thank God every day that I was able to sell my 500k over priced "home" in Phoenix in August of 2007.
Thank you HP!
No Fear here!
.
San Diego,
between Denial and Fear!
.
Lots o Denial!
But a hint of Fear is in the air!
If all real estate is truly local, I'm going to say that here in the Utah Market we are in the Anxiety stage headed quickly toward denial.
Fish gotta swim. Builders gotta build. It's what they do.
Cleveland, OH is in despondency-depression. We led on the way down (topped out in '03-early '04). Our economy is actually showing signs of life while people here are incredibly bearish - great contrarian play, this city.
Between Denial and Fear, since about 70% of homedebtors still think that their cancer home has been going up in value.
They behave as the government and crooks on Wall Street: If you just repeat the lie long enough, the sheeple believes that we've hit bottom or that inflation is low, or that the surge is working.
Bernanke even said with a straight face to Ron Paul that if consumers don't buy imports, there's no inflation. That's why when oil goes up or dow is good news to the stock market; if unemployment is high or low is good news; if inflation is skyrocketing is good news; etc.
Last time I think I said we were passing through Denial or through Fear--but now I think WE'VE SPREAD OUT quite a bit, with some of the stories I've heard.
I think we're getting pretty solid spread between remaining denial and some leading capitulation.
But of course, again, I'm speaking overall and I'm sure it varies heavily locale by locale.
With the piss poor MSM stating that the credit crisis is over, I think we are firmly entrenched in DENIAL. Still.
The same one that has been picking your next prez? But in this case is different, huh? The MSM is just corrupt in financial matters, but not in politics. Funny how that works.
To: Tangelo Mozillo
You moron - Donold Rumsfeld isn't the Chief Justice. Its been Condoleeza Rice now for quite a while - she replaced Rumsfeld.
Just goes to show the intelligence of you bangers...get a life
Like a previous poster aluded to, it really depends on area.
I am in the "core" area of Silicon Valley, near San Jose. Despite a price drop of around 20% (depending on county) here, people are still firmly wedged in denial.
The farther out areas like Stockton, Tracy, parts of Oakland, and now areas on the coastline are either in fear or in panic. Further out still, in Sacramento, it is panic and desperation.
We still have a LONG way to go. As another poster mentioned, we have not even begun to touch the option ARM and Alt-A portion of the refinance curve. Which will be a bigger disaster. Exacerbated by the fact that by then, the Fed will have already begun its interest rate hikes to curb inflation. Get ready for a storm.
"Don't all of you get sick of your crystal ball bogus predicitions of doom? I guess you were prediciting this too....."
I love how all comments by dumb people are anonymous. What we have now is not doom?!! There is no need for a crystal ball.
Housing starts have never been lower on a population basis which is the only way to rationally measure it.
And you can't even spell with a comment box that has an automatic spell checker?! Wow. Good luck with that RE career.
It seems to me that most FBs are still in denial, or at least pretending to be.
The whole Republic of Idaho is in denial, but then again, we've still got Larry Craig ...
The NYC and Long Island housing market is still in the denial stage. Shameless sellers are asking $600K for shabby ranches and rowhouses that are really worth no more than $250-300K.
There is a long way to go till prices in NYC fall down. After all it's one of the most overrated and overinflated markets in the country.
Anxiety for sellers
Fear for the REIC
With the piss poor MSM stating that the credit crisis is over, I think we are firmly entrenched in DENIAL. Still.
Also, the Federal Reserve telling us that inflation is very tame.
There will be no Panic this time around because the Fed Reserve is going to save the investment banks and the politian's will bailout the FB home debtors. It really is 'different' this time. Book it.
Hey China, that's what you get for treating Tibet like trash. Karma is a b!tch, isn't it?
A friend of my wife's sold her house in Houston in 5 days. Went to buy another house, also in Houston, offered full asking, seller said no I'm asking another $10K and didn't sell.
It's not all doom and gloom folks.
I agree with what Tangelo Mozillo says above. Most folks are too brain-dead to be either informed, or to have the required capacity to understand what is exactly happening. We are still in DENIAL, although treading on the edge of fear.
How about stupidity (yes I know it is not a choice). House Hunters last night (shows 2008 at the end of show) has Relabunny Wendy selling some poor first time buyer a 1300 sq ft 2 BR Stucco Shtbox in the Las Vegas Phken desert, was 309K but he got it for 306K!! Wahoo! OK, I guess I vote Denial because of the stupidity out there that still exist.
HPFan
Scared, but no panic yet.
By November, we'll see the panic...
I think that the rises were so rapid and the declines have come on so quickly that people may still be labouring under the false assumption that sales and prices can just bounce right back. I think this is why anxiety has not become outright panic.
Flippers think that if they can just hang on for another year or, at the most 2, they'll be back to 'normal' double-digit price gains.
The problem with this chart is that it needs to be wider for the housing market to reflect the slower cycles. You need to stretch the timeline out.
Fear here in the bay area....some homes have been for sale for sometime without offers.
October for the stock market and the the housing market should be very interesting.
A friend wants to buy a house in Roseville, but havent been able to because multiple offers are knocking them out. Personally, I think the agent (who is not their representative) says people are buying like crazy....(knife catchers)
Most people are walking straight into the buzz saw, happily boppin' with their iPods or sippin' on a Starbucks latte. The marginal hints of economic collapse (closings, layoffs, burglaries) are all around, but 90% of people just ignore the obvious and forge on in their lives of quiet desperation.
I get mixed signals in a 30 mile radius. I see some Desperation in Santa Rosa, CA, but I see lots of Denial in Novato, CA.
You guys can average it out to Fear.
FEAR
FEAR
FEAR
FEAR
Between Euphoria and Anxiety. Here on Maui it is still not even close to fear or even denial. In fact the Maui news this whole year has not talked about home sales at all. Previously it was front page news. Whispers are going on that the crisis will not spread here ie cause its pretty, an island, lack of affordable housing etc. I say just give it time. we are usually last to catch on regarding everything. Experts say tourists will keep coming well,, they will but they are not coming as much and many coworkers are getting serious hours cut. Its getting very interesting to say the least
>>>In California, Florida and Phoenix, there is solid panic.<<<
Trust me - in Phoenix most folks are no where near Panic. There are still large, solid pockets of denial out there.
Now Maricopa or Queen Creek is another story.
This is the best blog on the web!!! Great comments. NYC is still in denial. Some people are waking up to the pain, but there's much more to be felt. How many thousands of 2BR condos are being built now? A shit-ton! Jesus, and they all are being offered at $1.6mm. What a bunch of d-bag developers, they are gonna take some pain.
Big McMansion subdivision houses going into foreclosure-Desperation
Truly unique, fine properties(The type I want to buy) definitely denial-expecting prices higher than 2005-These properties are sitting and sitting and sitting
I think the stock market is in Denial - they have bi-polar pundits on the right and left saying housing is bad one day and good the next. Check out the latest spin - the latest housing starts numbers - the MSM said it was a surprising turnround. They led with that headline. You dig deeper into the story - apartment construction shot up 36%, not housing. Now that any good news appears, and I mean any, they want to lump us much chastised bitter renters in their 'fake' good homedebtors news?
I say we are at FEAR
optimism - for all hpers
anon 3:23pm. Those housing start numbers represent the opposite of what you think. Multi family housing starts up 8%, single family housing starts down 2%.
Builders are building for what is coming, people not being able to afford anything but cluster living. Many larger single family houses have close to no value as most families can not afford the taxes and insurance, let alone a mortgage.
In my opinion it's usually denial accompanied with fear.
Between euphoria and anxiety. Still building like crazy.
A neighbor told me yesterday..."My realtor told me my house is worth 20% less than it was a few years ago. I won't sell it for that."
In Miami we definitely entered the fear stage, building up to bigger and better things to come :)
In Las Vegas the banks that aren't holding back properties are starting to slash prices in just about every area of town. I'm talking 50% off homes and condos that 150-250k a few months ago. Many of these places are back to 98/99 prices. We're just getting started too.
Greg Swann is still in "anxiety" while his clients are in panic and hopelessness
Really! want to say between FEAR and DESPERATION. But, the fact is it feels closer to HOPE and RELIEF; as if we're already on the other side.
That being the case, I'd say it's still firmly in DENIAL. People are still buying albeit fewer people, but there are still too many knife catchers. There is still a 100% confidence out there that even if you buy a little too early, in the long run you're going to be happier than if you had not jumped in; so why wait? Why delay the joys of granite countertops and stainless steel?
I find this form of insanity especially true among Middle Easterners (double true for Persian Jews). It has been my experience they will alway pay top dollar for real estate as long as they can get financed. There is something in their culture that tells them to buy land, and keep buying it - as if it is simply impossible to ever overpay. Ironic from the culture that gave us math. As long as there are people who feel this way, it is a self-fulfilling truth. As long as banks finance this perverse lack of economic sense, people will be allowed to make overpaying look like genius.
Tool Flood lyrics
Here comes the water.
All I knew and all I believed
are crumbling images
that no longer comfort me.
I scramble to reach higher ground,
some order and sanity,
or something to comfort me.
So I take what is mine,and hold what is mine,
suffocate what is mine, and bury what's mine.
Soon the water will come
and claim what is mine.
I must leave it behind,
and climb to a new place now.
This ground is not the rock I thought it to be.
Thought I was high, and free.
I thought I was there
divine destiny.
I was wrong.
This changes everything.
The water is rising up on me.
Thought the sun would come deliver me,
but the truth has come to punish me instead.
The ground is breaking down right under me.
Cleanse and purge me
in the water.
I hear Bernanke saying "you guys aren't listening.....put aside money and stop ******around"...I thought people were getting it and I think quite a few of the ordinary people are, but every day that passes and things are still standing, at least
2/3 are mouthing the same gibberish on television: I will feel people are getting it when the housing shows start disappearing on HGTV, etc..they have completely replaced craft shows as if they think if there are more houses being redecorated, they can squeeze out another sale.
UNTIL THOSE SHOWS STOP WITH THEIR
IMMORAL PIMPING...THERE WILL BE NO BOTTOM.
grandma pkk
2002 Optimism
2003 Excitement
2004 Thrill
2005 Euphoria
2006 Anxiety
2007 Denial
2008 Fear
2009 ???
Grandma here again:
I live in a condo (my son rents) here in Colorado. Units are about 20 years old. Nothing special. All the same, 2 bedroom, one bath, wood structure, about 120 units. In our little block, the prices ranged, in last 3 years, from 88 K to 140K. The guy downstairs redid a few things in his kitchen 2 months ago and has his listed for 113K. A young woman over a bit sold hers for 132 last fall. Our landlord bought his 2 years ago for the 140K. He's a young guy who is well educated, but he's a young guy...I can't see him getting his 140K. The lady next to us bought hers last fall for 98K. Our unit is average.
Nothing to make someone want to pay what you'd have to pay. The tenant on the bottom floor pays 200 dollars a month lower than us: I saw the ad on craigslist. Didn't anybody look at the tax info? It's right there....My God, what a shock everything is going to be. One big event...Even on CNBC or Bloomberg the other day they said the Fed has already put out 60% of the money it has available to grease the wheels.
I don't think it's going to be a happy Thanksgiving.
OK Digest all of this Keith and tell us your opinion !
Inquiring minds want to know!
Fear? Desperation? Panic?
OR here comes the much hyped "pent-up demand"...BUY NOW
where is bottom on here? we're definitely at bottom i've been told
Fear.. I see it in my neighbors face. He is in Heloc hell.
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