May 16, 2008

HousingPANIC Classic Quote of the Day

From 2006:

While Greg Swann was dissing HP'ers and talking about year-round golf, this wise man was telling anyone who would listen what was about to come... And then it came.


"A significant decline in prices is coming. A huge buildup of inventories is taking place, and then we're going to see a major [retrenchment] in hot markets in California, Arizona, Florida and up the East Coast. These markets could fall 50% from their peaks."

Kenneth Heebner, CGM Realty Fund, a man who could see the future, as quoted in the July 5, 2006 Wall Street Journal

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Swann's customers if he has any cant say they weren't warned

HB Slacker said...

This is obvious so why are sheeple thinking there gettting "sweet deals" now?????? Foreclosure Buses..yeah ha ha suckers
Do they not see THE OBVIOUS that the inventory piling up BANKS PANICING GUBMINT TALKING BAILOUT is a sure sign of crashing prices big time TO SELL THE HOUSES AT ANY COST TO GET EM OFF THE BOOKS?????
I see a dire situation here with 1 way out FIRESALES!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GOODBYE REALTORS PRICE IS THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS (CASH DEALS) GET THE HELL OUT OF THE WAY AND LET THE GAMES BEGIN The smart money is lying in wait

When the community centers and tent cities start opening up as shelters in abundance then it will be time for SWEET DEALS Save your money and get out of debt, CREDIT WONT MATTER ONLY CASH AND INCOME TO DEBT RATIO'S

eric in vegas said...

The bubbleicious states will be lucky if they only see a 50% drop.

Anonymous said...

Dude, I could have told you this in 2003 and beyond.

This guy calling this in 2006 is nothing to write home about.

keyser soze said...

Heebner is one of the very few investor's worth listening to. He can be really cranky...and that's when he's at his best! Yes, he talks his book, but it's my opinion that he is actually long and planning to say long, when he recommends a sector or stock....not setting retail up, so he can sell.

Paul E. Math said...

Okay, if you're going to give Kenneth Heebner a call-back (and rightly so), I'm going to give myself a call-back.

I remember about a year and a half ago when Walmart and Macy's had some disappointing earnings calls and many of us agreed that a retail crunch would start on the lower and middle end and eventually works it's way up to the top tier.

Now, I've made a lot of wrong calls but, I believe it was FMW who works for an upscale retailer, and said that the rich would always get richer and that their retailers would always succeed. Well, that is starting to change, as many of us have predicted. Nordstrom profit down 25%, not insignificant.

I'm just sayin'. Next comes Saks.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-ap-earns-nordstrom,0,976436.story

LauraVella said...

Here's an article from Yahoo finance on fannie Mae's sudden change on requiring less down payments to help steady the declining housing market.


http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080516/fannie_mae_downpayments.html

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Could it be Fannie is just trying to fill the exploding inventory, not realizing by reduing the required downpayment, that homes will be 1/2 off in the near future?

It's funny how karma works.

Anonymous said...

Really? I think there is a conspiracy to keep prices up.

Anonymous said...

Keith,


Some of his predictions were dead wrong!

ie. Apartment rents going higher and FED action.


RayNLA

Anonymous said...

I've got a real problem trusting anyone with the name Heebner, lol.

consultant said...

Keith,

Swann and his kind are what has passed for leadership in this country for the last 30 years or so.

There are two books that I read years ago that nail what American culture has become:

Neil Postman's Amusing Ourselves To Death, and Christopher Lasch's The Culture of Narcissism.

The consequences for bad behavior (moral hazard) are no longer there. In governance, that means little or no regulation. Mostly fake regulation. In the national conversation, it means everything is a joke. The tone is don't be serious. In the personalities we revere, it's all celebrity. It's all about me baby.

We have become a nation of infantile, obsessed fools who really want someone to lie to us.

One big problem with this though, you can't effectively run a nation with these values; as we are now witnessing.

It's time to grow up. As anyone who has watched the Jerry Springer show knows, the transition from dumb ass to mature adult is funny, sad, painful and without absolutely any guarantees of success.

Anonymous said...

Some of his predictions were dead wrong!

ie. Apartment rents going higher and FED action.

--------------------------------

note that he says APARTMENT rents, not rents in general. I doubt single family home rents are increasing.

I own several multi-family complexes (each with 40 or more units) and I can tell you truthfully that I have been raising rents over the last two years. also, i have gotten rid of all move in incentives.

in this downturn, home buyers turn into home renters. previous home renters are moving into apartments and I am kicking out my most dead beat tenets. business is good right now and getting better.

Anonymous said...

Bubbled condos will be going down 75%

Agent 99 said...

"Swann and his kind are what has passed for leadership in this country for the last 30 years or so...
We have become a nation of infantile, obsessed fools who really want someone to lie to us."
(Consultant)

I couldn't agree with you more. Our "culture" is damaged. Let's see. What happened 30 or so years ago (1978). Moms abandoned their babies and went to work. How any mother could drop off their 6 week old baby in daycare and go to work, is impossible for me to fathom. They'll say they really need the money (and the McMansion and the BMW and vacations, etc.) They'll say they're sorry they missed the first steps, the first word, the first everything, but what has the baby missed? EVERYTHING. EVERYDAY. ALL DAY. They were abandoned and have a sense of emptiness and loss they can't even fully comprehend. They grow up like kids in Lord of the Flies...fighting it out in daycare for love and attention...but, the person who should love them the most and do anything for them and BE THERE for them ISN'T. But, they had a nice house. Think about growing up needing, needing, needing...not a house, not a car...MOM (and DAD).

I could go on and on (increased drug use, overly influenced by media, lack of morals, lack of modesty, lack of integrity, lack of self-decipline, need for instant gratification, moral hazard due to lack of consequences for bad behavior, etc. etc.) Parents (Moms especially) have stopped doing the most important job on the planet. Kids are trying to raise themselves and they can't.

So, Consultant, just one change to your post: "We have become a nation of infantile, obsessed fools who really want someone to LOVE us."

We are truly lost. (Well, at least we have HP)