May 10, 2008

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day

Is our work here:

* Nearly done?

* Half-way through?

* Still just getting started?


Big Cheese said...


Make this a voting item, not the question of the day!

-Our work here is clearly not done.


Anonymous said...

Sales Increase as Home Prices Fall

Falling too fast

Cal Poly Pomona finance and real estate professor Michael Carney said he is worried about the sharp drop in prices, especially when compared to the last real estate bubble that burst in the early 1990s. He believes it may mean the bottom is even further off than most people expect.

This time last year he was anticipating that prices might bottom out 15 percent lower than at the peak of the boom. He now fears that a fall of more than 20 percent could be possible. Carney tracks long-term price trends with a model that follows changes in appraised value of individual homes over time.

“That prices are falling faster than sales is not a good sign in terms that the bottom is near,” said Carney, noting that in the 1990s housing bust it took almost six years for prices to drop 20 percent. “You’ll start seeing year-to-year sales volume pick up long before we see a turnaround in prices.”

The median home price jumped off a cliff last October as the credit crunch, which started in the subprime category, spread to more affluent homebuyers.

Anonymous said...

Half way through

Anonymous said...

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Half way through

May 10, 2008 9:01 AM
Agreed. See the economist article at:

Agent 99 said...

Just getting started:
Federal regulators close Arkansas bank ANB Financial
Friday May 9, 8:45 pm ET
ANB Financial banks closed by federal regulators over 'unsafe and unsound' practices

It was the third closure this year of an FDIC-insured bank. Douglass National Bank, a Missouri bank with $58.5 million in assets, was shut in January; another Missouri institution with assets of $18.7 million, Hume Bank, was shut down in March.
So, let's keep track of this, so far the total of failed banks is 3...we have a long way to go.

Anonymous said...

The fun is just staring, I've stock up on popcorn for at least the next 4 years.

Anonymous said...

When the day comes that it is over, I hope your passions lead you to panic over another issue. You can't leave us Keith! This is my most favorite blog ever.

keyser soze said...

The work of 'telling the truth' will, unfortunately, never be done.

Yesterday, a friend @ the coffee shop asked me "What's gonna happen to all the people losing their home?" I shrugged and replied, "They'll go back to renting." I think she felt relieved by my answer.

Nuclear Winter in America said...

"Move their shit out to the curb and let it rain on them"
-Paulie Walnuts,Gangster

"The overall economic fundamentals are sound"
-Herbert Hoover, 2nd worst smart president in history
-George "Chimpy" Bushco, undisputedly WORST STUPID DUNCE PRESIDENT EVER

"Defecits don't matter"
-Dick Cheneyburton, suspected war criminal and hated WORST VICE PRESIDENT EVER

Seig Heil
Special Treatment
6 Million
March on a road of bones
-Ring any Bells?

Fu*k America.


It's a Great Time to Buy... said...

It's a Great Time to Buy...

xxxooo said...

we never were in control and everyone's their own worst enemy.

emmy said...

I think it will housing troubles will continue, but will morph.
The bubble is over, and prices will continue to drop, even though inflation may make it easier to initially pay off the debt. There are just a lot of houses that will not be occupied or maintained properly, or will house too many people, so it will become a different housing problem.
It will become an energy problem of how to house people.

Anonymous said...

Half way through.

The Subprime implosion is old news.

The Alt-A / Option-Arm will bring massively increased devastation. I'm hoping for a one of more major natural disasters to finish things off. Algore could blame it on Global Warming for more entertainment.

Anonymous said...

It's like the TOP of the SECOND INNING, and you're even thinking of quitting?? If so, I think we'll need to find another starting pitcher for this team...

Anonymous said...

You have only just begun your valuable work! You are opening eyes and shining light in dark corners, and up into the crack of the naked Emperor. It's a tough job, but someone has to do it. Don't even think about leaving us now. We need your voice of truth and reason. The HOME-ICIDE victims need your insight and guidance.
We love you. (The doggie is cute, too.)

Mark in San Diego said...

Actually, I was thinking about this the other day, and came to the conclusion you should rename HP to EP - Economic Panic. . .I think we have reached the inflexion point where housing both in the US and now the UK have brought the world economy to its knees. . .Central banks are just firefighting from one problem to the next, and will soon be overwhelmed by massive defaults. . .My favorite event of the week?? Citibanks "mother of all garage sales". . .how have we sunk so low?

Anonymous said...

It's a never ending battle for truth, justice and the American way, HP Man. You know that in your heart of hearts. There's certainly no glory in it and very little thanks. But wherever corrupt politicians and bankers conspire to bilk the public you will be there to expose their misdeeds, to mock them and to warn the populace. Sisyphus has it easy compared to you knew that when you started, big guy.

Anonymous said...

It will be over when owning vs renting are near the same anount. Maybe slightly higher for owning (5% or 10% higher) not this 50% plus. said...

Just getting started.

Most FBs are still in denial.

You can see that from their comments here.

venetiancafe said...

Only about 20% through....even though it feels like 50% through!!!!

Anonymous said...

I intend to buy 2-3 years after real estate is delcared dead dead dead.

I'm thinking at least 5 years from now.

Probably 10.

The fun is just begun.

Anonymous said...

"I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence."
- Herbert Hoover, December 1929

"...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930

"... the outlook continues favorable..."
- HES Mar 29, 1930

"While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover."
- Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930

Paul E. Math said...

We've barely started.

I define our mandate somewhat broadly to encompass preventive systemic changes. So far, very little has changed to prevent future manias from occuring. Memory of past manias is woefully inadequate insurance against future manias.

Here are a few worthwhile goals that are mostly years away:

1) abolish the Federal Reserve
2) stop the deductibility of mortgage interest
3) require hedge funds to open their books just like other financial firms
4) reform campaign finance and lobbying
5) balance the budget
6) tax capital gains the same as income so that hedge fund managers who make billions in capital gains are taxed on that income
7) tax capital gains on all real estate fully
8) LOWER THE OVERALL RATE OF TAXATION (made possible by plugging above loopholes)
9) etc...

Sure the housing bubble is in fully swing (though far from over). But the housing bubble is, and always was, a symptom of a much larger and more dangerous problem.

mairca izda debol said...

I think only one of the public homebuilders has gone bankrupt - Technical Olympic USA. There are still well over a dozen out there and I expect half of them will be gone by the time this mess bottoms. The private builders are dropping like flies.

Then you will see WaMu go the way of the DoDo bird. Their loans were worse than CountryFried's.

Mister Alpine said...

Your work here is done. Most of you bitter renters/housing terrorists think that everyone cares about what you think, but you could not be more wrong. Bernanke does not care about you when he lowers rates. The general public did not care about you when they nominated McCain over Ron Paul, the Bailout driven Congress/ Presidential Candiates does not care about you, and the NAR/NAHB lobbyists have much more power than you bitter renters.

So, that is why the job here is done. Why continue preaching to a brick wall?

shakster said...

Get some perspective Man.
It's never done.

Ola Dunk said...

I discussed the bubble with coworkers friday (in Norway).

They all went to business schools or are engineers, but while they think prices are high, they still think the bust won't happen here...

PS! You should all check out ("ideas worth spreading"). It's a fascinating collection of presentations, knowledge and ideas.

Anonymous said...

We have only just started. Have a long way to go - probably another 6years of housing depreciation.

Heck, main stream banks havent even gone belly up yet. When it happens we will be near the end.

A.Creampuff said...

I declared HP's work done as soon as the MSM started reporting on the housing crisis, but kept coming back for yucks.

paul e. math has the best take on your question, although I don't agree with all the particulars.

Try to expand HP's horizons, and be more involved. For every snark, suggest some action. Blog like the wind, Keith!

Anonymous said...

Just getting started. Americans, on an individual level, city level, county level, state level and federal level are still spending more than they earn (a.k.a. running a deficit, negative savings, credit card debt, whatever you want to call it). Americans by and large at most levels are still hemorrhaging money, so they haven't even stopped the bleeding, let alone paid back what is owed. Until the spending stops we're not even halfway there.

Anonymous said...

Alpine said:

"So, that is why the job here is done. Why continue preaching to a brick wall?"

Did you just liken yourself to a brick wall? You may be on to something there...