May 07, 2008

David Lereah, the most discredited economist in world history, finally admits housing crash going to get worse, expects US home values to plummet 20%


No, this is not a joke.

David Lereah, the thoroughly discredited former Chief Cheerleader for the evil National Association of realtors, publisher of the hilarious comedy "Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust", and pinata for this blog among others, has come out of his self-imposed hole.

Hey, a guy has to make a living somehow, right?

So Lereah has these gems in Newsweek - and no, THIS IS NOT A JOKE.

"We're not at the bottom," he says. "[People] want it to be near the bottom, but we're not there yet. The leading indicators are still very bad. Pending home sales are still in bad shape. Mortgage applications are low … There's still supply out there in abundance … This thing is going to get worse before it gets better."

"We're probably going to end up with a 20 percent [decline], but if I'm wrong it will be even more than that"

"I didn't think this would turn into an all-out bursting of a balloon for the whole nation"

"That (lending) got so out of hand, and none of us realized the magnitude of it until it was too late."

Go ahead HP'ers. Destroy this man. Unload with both barrels. Until we get a sincere apology from Lereah for the destruction and pain he's caused, and a complete and total repudiation of his former employer the National Association of Deceptive Used Home Sellers and his replacement stooge Lawrence Yun, he's still fair game.

And for the idiots calling bottom, when the former Chief Housing Cheerleader FINALLY comes out of his hole to admit how horrifically, historically wrong he was, how bad it is, and how bad it's gonna get, any sane person should understand that when it comes to home prices, WE'RE NOWHERE NEAR BOTTOM.

44 comments:

Anonymous said...

NOBODY sees/tells the truth while their living depends on them not doing so.

All the assholes that used to shout us down have now developed an acute case of Internet Autism.

They just don't post anymore.

Anonymous said...

I actually bought his book which had been renamed "Why the Real Estate Boom will not Bust" in 2007 because I thought it would be a collectors' item of stupendous arrogance someday.

Looks like I was right!

And no, I didn't even read the book, I just put it aside.

Anonymous said...

The housing bubble and crash is hands-down the most hilarious sequence of events in human history, PERIOD. Here we see Lereah trying to save his soul before he gets lynched by an angry mob. Probably safe to assume that Yun will be singing the same tune a year or so from now. And this party is just getting started!

Anonymous said...

I guess he was tired of being hounded in the streets and having chefs leave all sorts of nasty human byproducts in his food that he decided to discover the truth.

Anonymous said...

The housing bubble and crash is hands-down the most hilarious sequence of events in human history, PERIOD. Here we see Lereah trying to save his soul before he gets lynched by an angry mob. Probably safe to assume that Yun will be singing the same tune a year or so from now. And this party is just getting started!

I just love the perpetual Kool-Aid drinkers that come to HP and are dead convinced that buying houses is still the most responsible financial move one can make. They still believe in Goldilocks.

Larry said...

I wanted a copy of his book as a souvenir too. Looks like it's a good time to buy:

Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?: The Boom Will Not Bust and Why Property Values Will Continue to Climb Through the End of the Decade - And How to Profit From Them

Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?: The Boom Will Not Bust and Why Property Values Will Continue to Climb Through the End of the Decade - And How to Profit From Them by David Lereah (Hardcover - Feb 22, 2005)
Buy new: $19.95 $15.96 58 Used & new from $0.35


$0.35!!! Has it hit bottom? It could drop another 20%, I mean 20 cents.

Russ DoGG said...

**Newsweek won't take any comments** IT says unable to publish your comments.

Don't forget Lereah wrote an earlier book where he advocated buying overpriced tech stocks just before they crashed. Then he wrote books about how real estate was a good investment just before that bubble burst. Listening to this fool is a waste of time & investing with this moron will cost $$$ you dearly.

These so-called jounalists....

Anonymous said...

"That (lending) got so out of hand, and none of us realized the magnitude of it until it was too late."

Ever notice how discredited shills, no matter how many people clearly told them otherwise throughout the whole process, will always say that no one saw it coming when they are ultimately proven wrong?

I suspect we will soon see video of Mike Norman likewise claiming ignorance of anyone foretelling the inflation disaster, as if he wasn't present during the dozens of on-air arguments with Peter Schiff.

Anonymous said...

Greg Swanndive still hasn't admitted how wrong he was although his big hitter Russell Shaw just boldted that ass's blog today

Anonymous said...

What did they do with the real David Lereah?

Anonymous said...

It's always a good time to buy an overpriced asset LOL

Anonymous said...

This lousy excuse of a clown is still alive?

Paul E. Math said...

He's still a weasel. The part about this article that really stuck out for me, as with others, was where he claimed that nobody could have seen this coming.

It was all about the price/rent and price/income - the fundamentals. It's a pretty poor economist indeed who dismisses the fundamentals in favour of a 'new paradigm'.

What Wall St. firms are paying this guy for his 'expert' opinion? All you have to do is look at the Case/Shiller index and that's free. If you really want experts then go to Macromarkets, Robert Shiller's firm - let Lereah eat ramen with the rest of his parasitic buddies.

Afterthought said...

This is a tectonic historical shift, you know, like the one between hunter-gathering and agriculture?

Like the one between agrarian society and industry...

No, we ain't NOWHERE NEAR THE BOTTOM!!!

gregoryw said...

Lereah lives near me outside of Washington, DC. I looked up his home purchase record on Washingtonpost.com. He bought one place, a primary residence, before the bubble for a reasonable price. That's it. Never took part in the the bubble he hyped so much. He should have put a disclaimer in those books that he wasn't getting involved.

It's like Market-Ticker guy Karl Denninger says..."watch what they do, not what they say."

Anonymous said...

"That (lending) got so out of hand, and none of us realized the magnitude of it until it was too late."

Don't be too hard on yourself David, after all, you were only the chief economist at NAR. Who would have expected you to realize those things were happening?
David, how do you feel about torches and pitchforks? An important person like you should have peacock feathers with your hot tar, pigeon just isn't good enough.

Happy Homedebtor said...

Silly Keith, again showing your ignorance and lack of comprehension and research.

When everyone and their mom jumps on a bandwagon saying "It's going this way", that's almost the exact point that it changes direction.

Whether housing will go sideways or start ever so slowly creeping up is anybody's guess, but using the above logic and historical accuracy - does anyone know anybody, other than individual nobodies who doesn't swear the sky is falling forever now? - wouldn't it dictate that we're now creating a valley? ;)

Oh wait, this is HP - where every believer is going to get a home at 80% off peak in the most desirable neighborhood in perfect condition with a complimentary redhead...nevermind.

Anonymous said...

Only a 20% decline? I think we are way past that number here in northeast Wisconsin.

G0ing-to-Paraguay-with-Bush

Almost worse than Bush. I said, Almost... said...

NEWSFLASH

The National Association of Ramen eaters (NAR, he will not have to get new stationery or business cards) has appointed David Lereah noted failed and shamed former economist and talking head and professional liar for the National Association of RealWhores field quality control officer.

Mr. Lereah comes to the NAR with an impressive resume of failure and doom. We don't expect much from him, but he will be FUN to watch and disparage...

Loser. Benedict Arnold. Almost worse than Bush. I said, Almost...

Stoked in SoCal said...

Lereah is saying we're not yet at the bottom.

Wake up, people! That means we are most likely at the bottom. This can't be the first time Lereah got it right.

If he's wrong, now is a great time to buy.

Anonymous said...

"I suspect we will soon see video of Mike Norman likewise claiming ignorance of anyone foretelling the inflation disaster,"


Mike Norman: "Inflation is an annoyance"

Anonymous said...

Actually... I like the fact that he called this a economic crisis baloon rather than a bubble. I think it more accurately reflects what happened.

I vote that you change this blog name to:

The Housing Baloon and Crash Blog with an Attitude Problem.

I'd probably keep "Bubble" in there but with strikethrough... just to emphasize that this thing has grown beyond all proportion.

IB

Mark in San Diego said...

So when will Ben Bernake start telling the truth? After Obama or McCaine fire him, he will likely write a book saying he was forced by the bankers to bail them out. . .

BTW - I am beginning to agree with George Bush - he may veto the housing bailout bill. . .would show a little backbone for a change.

Anonymous said...

Go ahead HP'ers. Destroy this man. Unload with both barrels. Until we get a sincere apology from Lereah for the destruction and pain he's caused...

_______

Don't be silly, Keith. David Lereah didn't cause the destruction and pain.

A much bigger portion of blame goes to the lazy, willfully ignorant sheeple who convinced themselves that house prices would keep rising forever.

Anonymous said...

Wake up, people! That means we are most likely at the bottom. This can't be the first time Lereah got it right.

If he's wrong, now is a great time to buy.


_______

That's how you see it, huh?

Maybe if he's wrong, it could be MUCH MUCH worse than he says.

Did you think of that?

Prob'ly not.

tim73 said...

Well, maybe it is time to live American Reality, instead of American Dream(tm). Welcome to the oldies, you 232 year old virgin!

doppelzoo said...

I hope you all realize, that David Lereah says we're not at the bottom - which is a strong indicator that we might be getting there ^_^

Toby said...

Gregw, Lereah bought a condo in West Florida. It was documented about a year ago that he had lost about 15%. Probably more by now.

Anonymous said...

gregoryw, if people don't put their money where there mouth is, it makes you wonder why you should, doesn't it?

Noriel Roubini's portfolio is all in stocks. He says he's not worried because he's in it for the long term. Sounds about right to me.

Anonymous said...

With all due respect, the man is a genius.

Why? He KNEW that we where in a bubble and was able to earn a fortune on it, and now he's going to make an even larger fortune on the popping of the bubble.

Reality said...

"does anyone know anybody, other than individual nobodies who doesn't swear the sky is falling forever now? - wouldn't it dictate that we're now creating a valley? ;)"

No. The sellers, one entire side of the market participants, are still holding on to their high ask prices. That's why the sales volume is dropped to a trickle. When volume spikes at a lower price level, that will indicate a market washout and significant bounce on the way down to historical P/E ratio. We are not even at the midway dead cat bounce point yet, albeit getting close.

Anonymous said...

anon dude 3:57 sez:

"The Housing Baloon and Crash Blog with an Attitude Problem."

The proper spelling of the word is BALLOON, you looser!

Happy Homedebtor said...

Re: reality:

Not even midway, so the markets that *are* down 40-50% are going to be $1 per house?

You guys are a trip - housing bailout cleared comittee, now it's on to the full House. $100K+ free to me, none for you - deal with it.

Charlie said...

About 2 years ago, David Lereah was on the Gene Burns radio show on KGO in the SF Bay Area of California.

I called the program and was taken as the first caller of the night. I blasted off every whacked fundamental that I could think of;

1) Price to rent
2) Price to income
3) Price to inflation
4) % of ARM, no down etc loans in the Bay Area.

I did it with passion and even a little anger.

Burns tried to interrupt me and I demanded "WAIT, I have more" and he let me finish.

Then he ended the call and they both chuckled a little. To Gene Burns credit, he said to Mr. Lereah, so what do you think?

Lereah said something about the Bay Area being such a desirable place with limited land space that he does not see the kind of price reductions I was predicting.

This guy is the biggest fraud around. I'm surprised he's still speaking out. His 20% will be wrong and he will look like a fool again to everyone except the mainstream media.

Anonymous said...

anon dude 3:57 sez:

"The Housing Baloon and Crash Blog with an Attitude Problem."

The proper spelling of the word is BALLOON, you looser!





BWAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! its great when you spell something wrong while making fun of somebody's spelling. "looser" like yo mama!

eric in vegas said...

"You guys are a trip - housing bailout cleared comittee, now it's on to the full House. $100K+ free to me, none for you - deal with it."

Too bad shrub already said he's going to veto the bill.

Out at the peak said...

Wow. The comment debtors are confident that the bottom is in. That means I need to buy back in or be priced out forever.

Oh wait, I'm still priced out. But there must be a bunch of mystery people out there that must be better off than my six-digit salary who are eager to buy. Like those foreigners.

mairca izda debol said...

The National Assoc of Used Car Salesmen would have more credibility with me.

Anonymous said...

"...(lending) got so out of hand, and none of us realized the magnitude of it until it was too late."

"...after all, you were only the chief economist at NAR. Who would have expected you to realize those things were happening?..."

Pure. Comedy. GOLD.

Anonymous said...

For price to income gets anywhere near in line, the prices must drop a LOT more than 20 percent off the peak price. If Bush vetos the bailout, it will be only the SECOND good thing he had happen on his watch. The first is the telemarketing no-call list.

The best thing government can do about the housing debacle is nothing and let prices fall like a skydiver with no parachute - and bounce accordingly. (more like splat like a dead cat)

What caused the debacle was the increasingly creative (and risky) loans being given out like Halloween candy and the bubble popped when the "system" ran out of plastic surgeons to be the first time homedebtors with a bomb-like ARM loan. Everyone with a less than solid 6 digit income were priced out of the market for years beforehand - no matter the loan.

As far as hilarious market bubbles, the Dutch Tulip Debacle is No. 1 with this an awful close second.

Anonymous said...

Whether housing will go sideways or start ever so slowly creeping up is anybody's guess, but using the above logic and historical accuracy - does anyone know anybody, other than individual nobodies who doesn't swear the sky is falling forever now? - wouldn't it dictate that we're now creating a valley? ;)

----------------

In 2003, EVERYONE was already in the mode real estate only goes up. It took 2-3 more years to reach the peak.

EVERYONE (and I'm still not sure we can yet say everyone) has just begun to say that real estate can go down. There's still a few more years of weakness.

MAKE HIM SQUEEL LIKE THE PIG HE IS. said...

DELIVERANCE REPLAYED

Bend him over a public rail (NAR convention would suffice) and

MAKE HIM SQUEEL LIKE THE PIG HE IS.

Gang Rape may change his sunny disposotion.

F*ck YOU Lereah. Go punk your butt buddy Yun.

Anonymous said...

I have to give credit to the NAR for trying to rename "bubbles" as "balloons." It was a good spin tactic, if it had taken. Control the vocabulary and you control the conversation (e.g., "illegals" vs. "undocumented workers").

But once an attempt to rename a phenomenon doesn't take (e.g., Fox News' ridiculous effort at calling them "homicide bombers") you have to give it up if you want people to think you're not a corporate sock-puppet. If you persist in using your own fictional jargon, absolutely nothing lights up the shill-radar more. I can't think of a faster way to vaporize one's (remaining) credibility.

Next I'll expect Lereah to tell me that "foreclosures" are all media hype; they're just "pacifying homeowners."

corvinus said...

The National Assoc of Used Car Salesmen would have more credibility with me.

I dunno about that. How about all those SUVs and big rigs that they can't sell?

"Gas prices are at record levels! Now is a great time to buy!"