1) BUY: Back up the truck and load up - going to $1600 from here, Cramer is right
2) HOLD: Ride out the wild swings, have a moderate stake, try not to look, gold is money.
3) SELL: Deflation is here, cash is king, dollar rally, Schiff is wrong
So let's hear it...
April 01, 2008
Gold?
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
70 comments:
I wouldn't put it that way either Keith.
I would not suggest selling Gold. Deflation does not equal low prices in Gold. That said, I would problably hold. I personally owned gold since 2004 and sold late 2007.
As I've said before, gold is a hedge against uncertain times and that is now.
I say Schiff is wrong in his hyperinflation debate though. Where is it? I don't see the inflation he keeps talking about, but I do see discounts everywhere, Target, Walmart, Sears, Abercrombie, Gap, American Eagle, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, you name it. I know Mr Bernanke is crazy and all, but I doubt that he would lower the rates to 0 if it would cause hyperinflation. No way dudes. What is he achieving by doing that, destroying the currency and destroying himself.
Dny
I think it's too late to buy.
Last time gold went so abnormally high (around 1987-88??), if you got in too late, you got stuck once it dropped.
My former boss, for example, bought at $600 and it took him years to hit break-even.
I know it's bad luck to call bottom, but even though we have a lot of bad news still to come from a lot of people, I think that the smart money (if there is such a thing), has figured out enough to be more cautious.
In other words... even though there IS NO BOTTOM for a lot of big names, I think that there will still be enough safe bets to keep the world from crashing down on everyone's head.
Silly rabbit, inflation-denial is fo kidz. Of course we are in inflation, that is why Target, etc. is selling things cheap - THEY ARE SCARED and need cash flow because the consumer has no cash due to inflation, credit crunch, etc. Real price of things you get dump at the retail level is up substantially, like food and energy. Food and gold and other commodes have really not gone up in real terms, the dollar has just gone way down.
not a buy until people stop talking about it
Buy on the dips (today) and hold until 2011.
It may be deflation in assets, but inflation is coming, big time.
Bernanke wouldn't have it any other way.
Gold down huge today. But the dollar still flat. Fundamentals are the same. Speculator's fleeing gold. Might be a good time to buy.
buy
What happened to "Gold to the Moon, Alice?"
Gold to the floor.
Yikes!
Hang on to your seatbelt, because we're all in for one wild ride!
Is it time to buy in, or has the Gold bubble already burst for good (this time around, that is)?
-Mammoth
I'm holding onto half, sold half on the bounce back to $950, and will wait until gold hits $800 before I load back up and ride it to $2000.
Everytime you blog about gold it goes down!!!
hlowe
No, I blog about gold when it goes DOWN, to see what people are doing
I'm a gold bull but it sure is a wild ride.
"I say Schiff is wrong in his hyperinflation debate though. Where is it? I don't see the inflation he keeps talking about,"
LOL !!!
I just finished a road trip from Texas to Montana. The price of gasoline is definitely hurting average folks and everywhere I stopped there was mention of higher prices for food, clothing and other necessities. You are living in a dream world if you think inflation isn't a problem.
There is palpable fear out in the hinterlands as common people sense something bad is going down. Turn off the goddamned TV, computer, and cell phones and walk around for a day or two outside you comfy suburbs. You will see and sense what I'm talking about.
Gold does well both during inflation and deflation. Gold is "real" money.
If you use real inflation data, the same method used in 1980, gold should be selling for $6,000 per ounce.
Fool's rally. The pump monkey's think everything is hunky dorey again - just wait until the next wave of foreclosures and bank failures.
It's only downhill from here.
HPers
Invest in Israel and you’ll outperform any other mature or emerging market.
Israelis are the hardest and smartest working people on our planet.
The results of their efforts are first now beginning to show.
You have the choice to be on the loser conspiracy side, or become rich and join the winners.
DNY,
No inflation? Where the heck you live? My college cost 8000 in 1994, now its 21000. Oil went form 20-100 plus in just a few years. Gas at 3.50 also. Have you looked at food? Eggs, bread, soda, you name it have almost in the last few years. There are food riots in many countries due to skyrocketing prices. Ever heard of Commodities? Gold's down but it was 350 just a few years ago. silver was 4 bucks an ounce
The only things cheap are crap from China, things we dont truly need. Everything we truly need is experiencing inflation.
Your either very rich or frankly pretty slow witted.
CLM
Buy, hold until retirement. 15% of portfolio in gold. 40% in short term US treasuries. 15% shorts. 30% cash. And we wait....
Deflation is here, Keith, time to sell. I wish I had sold at $1000. I am hanging on now still, not taking my own advice, but I am looking to dump the first time gold peeks its head above $950 again.
I love Peter Schiff but he's wrong on inflation. We've just finished going through an inflationary period, and now it's all going down. The FED is out of room to cut, they can't inflate us out of this one.
Gold 2008 = Cali r/e 2005
Deflation now(cash is king), inflation later(gold) once Fed monetizes the debt it takes on from buying bad subprimes/alt a's.
right now the Fed funding is neutral(taking bad loans as collateral, issuing new loans, with zero sum being zero). Once it fully monetizes(takes the loans on its balance sheet permanently, then let the inflation begin).
Lousy stinking Fed. Corrupt government. This country sucks.
Use my patented strategy -- buy high, sell low!!
I've followed that plan, and I live on easy street nowadays, napping half the day. Sweet!!
HOLDING ON!! The daily ups and downs won't make me throw in the towel on gold. The US dollar is gasping for it's last breath. What I expect is that something is going to happen suddenly and unexpectedly that will forever change the face of America and this world. At that time gold will shoot to the moon.
John Williams of shoadowstats.com. M2 money supply and dollar as toilet paper.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQIO0Roxo6o
hlowe
Newbie...how do I buy gold?
I'll buy some if it hits $835. More if it hits $800.
Today I got back into SKF and short XHB for low profit swing trades (to close out by end of week).
I'm buying more when it breaks 800.
Wanna another proof that deflation isn't here?
I just saw a chart showing that inflation hit American retailers in the last six months. No more cheap sh!t from China, as they're passing higher costs to consumers. Prices are going up across the board.
Obama says that FB's who lied on their zero-down loans are the victims of the housing bubble and taxpayers need to pay their mortgages. Hope for change, right? DOPES
Don't forget that the shady group controlling the military industrial complex and the GOP will come up with another fake terror threat to elect warmonger McCain, right before elections.
You already saw on the news that Zionist Lieberman has been whispering, shamelessly, instructions into McCain's ears about foreign policy involving Iran.
It's a buy. Gold and oil will go to the moon.
I think Keith is a disinfo blogger hired by the US military:
Wired Article on US Military Sponsored Bloggers
I heard one of these bloggers on the Ingraham show the other day talking about how awesome the war in Iraq has been.
When will these military f*ckheads realise that America is supposed to be a FREE COUNTRY not some sh!tty communist regime that stifles dissent and molds public opinion??!!
If America was really in danger all able bodied men would sign up to join the military in a heart beat. The point is that this war is bullsh!t - it's not even a war but an occupation and nobody except the young, poor and stupid will have anything to do with it.
Gold is still up 30% in the last year. Anyone who bought more than 4 months ago is ahead.
Nothing goes straight up. Remember, bull markets climb a wall of fear, and bear markets slide a slope of hope.
The fear is in the gold market, the hope is in the stock market..
I think there are powerful moves toward socialism happening in the US - including the federalizing of the banks. That would mean massive regulations on the free market which could easily change the rules of speculation in the short term. Which is why I sold half of my gold mining stocks 2 weeks ago.
In the long-term, however, all of their efforts to prevent the meltdown are futile and Schiff will be proven right. We'll see a big sell-off followed by an epic run-up.
What the big wheels refuse to acknowledge is that the little guy strapped for cash has a real impact on the global credit market. Nothing going on behind the scenes on Wall Street is going to make homes more affordable at current prices. The larger market is following real estate into the abyss, not the other way around. I don't know how cheap gold will get on this correction, but I doubt you'll see it this low again.
When I was going to school for my business degree, I could never understand why Economics was considered a Science. Someone with an Economics degree should not have a Bachelor of Science degree, but rather a Bachelor of Arts degree.
The older I get, the more it seems that people keep trying to predict what is going to happen to the U.S. economy and the world economy using OLD data and theories. Could it be that these theories just don't apply anymore? Could it be that the new U.S./world economy is so complicated, so HUGE, and so many different people have their hands in manipulating it, that the old rules just don't mean anything anymore?
How can economists, who studied the same things in college, see things so differently? I'm just ranting a little, but who the hell knows what gold is going to do... not Schiff, not Cramer, not me, and probably not anyone else, either.
Pure manipulation of the market...The big boys cashing out the suckers rushing in...Stocks will be worthless save for a few proper ones...Financial markets will be f@#ked and Gold will shoot back up.
All this is just taking of profits but in the end all that will matter is that gold and silver will hold value...stocks and dollars won't.
DOW IS UP 390 POINTS!!! BUAHAHAHAHA!!
April Fools!
Oh wait it really did go up 390 points!!!
Just buy 1/2 gold and 1/2 dollars. Let the storm pass with a wash.
Housing up = gold up = assets up
Everything in an uptrend has periodic corrections. Look at the charts for gold, in the 1970's there were some huge corrections. Tech stocks corrected before their final run into 2000. Nothing goes up in a straight line, though the national debt is closer to a straight line trend than most things.
better then gold said...
‘Invest in Israel and you’ll outperform any other mature or emerging market.’
Agree, I’ve been investing in Israeli bonds and companies for the past 3 or so years.
It’s been very good to me.
Gold does very well during a depression (deflation). Look at history, e.g., Weimar.
Wall Street soars amid economic optimism
Investors rush back to market amid confidence that worst is over
Market update
Index Last Change % change
• DJIA 12654.36 +391.47 +3.19%
• NASDAQ 2362.75 +83.65 +3.67%
• S&P 500 1370.18 +47.48 +3.59%
updated 12:31 p.m. PT, Tues., April. 1, 2008
NEW YORK - Wall Street began the second quarter with a big rally Tuesday as investors rushed back into stocks, optimistic that the worst of the credit crisis has passed and that the economy is faring better than expected. The Dow Jones industrials surged nearly 400 points, and all the major indexes were up more than 3 percent. (MSNBC)
The worst of the credit crisis has PASSED!!! You'd have to be crazy to believe that!!! Nothing has really happened yet. I'm holding my gold. I can't believe the financial markets will be able to keep it together in the face of falling house prices...the ship is going to sink despite all the rearranging of deck chairs.
"I see no inflation, Target are flogging stuff off cheap"
Are you blindfolded down the bottom of a well or something?
Oil has increased from $10 a barrel to $110 a barrel, what's that, 1100% in 6 years? Oil is the life blood of civilization, oil goes up in price, so does everything else.
Suppliers/manufacturers etc can only hold costs down for so long. It takes time for increased costs to work their way through the system, all this Chinese crap that Target are selling off cheap was probably made with materials stockpiled from nearly 2 years ago or longer.
As for deflation, give me a break!!
The fed has pumped over $2 trillion (with a "T") into the economy this year alone. I doubt the rate of supply will decrease anytime soon, and even if it remains static that will work out at about $25k for every man, woman and child by the end of the year.
I'll be buying more if it goes under 800.
hold gold or get rolled
Today's events should reinforce the fact that the market doesn't operate according to your/my/our reality - but by perception. If a $19 billion write-off didn't spook perception, ask yourself what will? I'm guessing the first whiff of an official dollar de-peg will change the perception...
How low can the dollar go? Who will de-peg first? Will Obama's "global tax" help or hurt matters?
Professor Robini said cash will be king in 2008. Does he have an opinion on gold?
The government stopped measuring M3 money supply but it is being measured by John Williams.
Is he and others wrong?
I think the safe bet should be gold while the government continues to print money and keep rates low. How can I be wrong?
Is there a site that can dispute John Williams measurement of M3?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQIO0Roxo6o
http://www.shadowstats.com/
hlowe
Keith,
Professor Robini said cash will be king in 2008. Does he have an opinion on gold?
The government stopped measuring M3 money supply but it is being measured by John Williams.
Is he and others wrong?
I think the safe bet should be gold while the government continues to print money and keep rates low. How can I be wrong?
Is there a site that can dispute John Williams measurement of M3?
Interview with John Williams
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQIO0Roxo6o
http://www.shadowstats.com/
hlowe
It's all rigged by crooks on Wall Street, corrupt MSM, and the Zionists that hold Bernanke, Congress, Senate, and the Fed as their bitches!
Oh yeah, nothing says rally and optimism like today's headlines:
1. Analysts see 200,000 banking industry layoffs
2. The U.S. industrial sector contracted for a second consecutive month in March
3. Construction spending fell again in February as home building tumbled for a record 24th straight month.
4. New Yorker: Americans are going for broke
5. Dell announces 8000 layoffs
6. 28 Million Americans Rely on Food Stamps
7. Food Prices Rise
8. Toyota, Honda Post Declines as U.S. Market Shrinks
9. Stock hedge funds, unsure about which direction the markets would move, sat on a record amount of cash as the industry headed for its biggest quarterly decline in almost six years.
10. NASA to Cut 8,000 Jobs as Shuttle Retirement Looms
11. Auto Sales Fall Steeply. GM, Toyota, Ford and Chrysler posted double-digit drops in U.S. vehicle sales last month, in what is shaping up to be the auto industry's toughest year in at least a decade.
12. A U.S. retailer group cut its March sales estimate for a second time as shoppers concerned about job security and the worst housing slump in a quarter century cut apparel spending.
13. Truckers clogged the New Jersey Turnpike and other highways today, slowing traffic to as low as 20 mph as part of a nationwide protest against surging diesel fuel prices.
14. As the falling real-estate and stock markets erode their savings, many aging Americans are delaying retirement
15. UBS to Write Down Another $19 Billion
I think there are powerful moves toward socialism happening in the US - including the federalizing of the banks.
The shady group controlling the government wants you to believe that it's socialism, but in reality is Corporate Fascism. Just look at how Wall Street got away with all those misdeeds about the housing bubble. There's a deliberate movement in this country to hide their Fascist agenda behind socialism. Hell, you might even be one of their disinformation agents.
A note to the shady group out there:
We know that you're trying to impose Corporate Fascism and we'll f*ck you up! Not everyone is a sheep in this country and hiding behind Blackwater like a sissy won't work because we'll hunt you like dogs.
This is the big washout for those who either bought too much or dont have staying power. For all you experienced traders out there you know this happens in bull markets. Gold will likely trade down to $800 then we can think about buying it again. The commodity bull will last another 10yrs. Look to buy gold in a few weeks time.
This one is easy...
Simple Econ 101.
Supply and demand.
We are finding less and less gold deposits, and the ones we are finding are of small deposits.
So, supply is not/will not, be expanding anytime soon.
Demand; as long as the Governments of the World continue to expand their currencies, the new money will find its way into the hands that want to buy gold. That increases demand.
So, from there we deduce;
stagnant supply, met with increasing demand equals...?
anybody?
anybody?
This morning on Bloomburg news mentioned food, and meat in particular is going to get a lot more expensive.
I'm stocking up my freezer.
Interesting that gold and long-term treasuries both went down (and stocks up) - market sees uncertainty disappear, I think market is wrong. I expect both gold and long-term treasuries to come back, but at some time their ways will part - which one will gain the upper hand?
Take $1000 cash and 1 gold coin and bury them both for 100 years. Dig them up and see what you can buy with them at that point.
Look at the chart, it's parabolic. No way is actual inflation that bad. Gold has priced in years of future inflation, just like tech stocks priced in years of future earnings growth back in 2000. I'm not saying it's gonna crash, but think about it people, does that chart remind you of anything? (Hint: look at housing prices in the mid-00s.)
Advice to potential gold buyers; Use anyone but MONEX. So Cal BBB rates them an "F". Had a NIGHTMARE experience last month buying just 100 Silver Eagles.
Uhh dude, I have a BA in Economics...you can get either one...but I agree its more of an Art than Science..but it does apply in todays world. Unfortunately some of the "best known" economists are not the "best" economists. Shiller would be a great exception.
Question for the crowd and Keith:
How much gold is in physically owned assets vs 'electronic' gold such as GLD?
Physical should be more secure given you can see it's backed by real gold but there is a risk of theft. And buying & selling involves verification of the quality and commissions. So in this point electronic is more convenient.
Anyone know the mix between physical & electronic? Can you post the links for this info?
Thanks,
BC
This one is easy...
Simple Econ 101.
Supply and demand.
kinda like what the NAR was saying in 2005
We are finding less and less gold deposits, and the ones we are finding are of small deposits.
they're not making any more land you know, especially prime land like in SoCal, Nevada and Arizona
So, supply is not/will not, be expanding anytime soon.
land will not be expanding any time soon, since you know, they can't make any more of it
Demand; as long as the Governments of the World continue to expand their currencies, the new money will find its way into the hands that want to buy gold. That increases demand.
New immigrants are coming to the US in droves and they all need a place to live. Plus baby boomers will all be buying 2nd and 3rd homes for retirement. And their kids are now in their prime buying years. Therefore demand will only increase for real estate.
So, from there we deduce;
stagnant supply, met with increasing demand equals...?
Therefore, we have stagnant supply of land and an incresed demand, meaning now is a great time to buy real estate before you get priced out forever.
Both 1 & 2.
Hold any you've already got. Buy more if you can.
Don't sell on dips, that's dumb. BUY on dips. Maybe sell a little of what you bought on the next strong rally.
Don't let head fakes in the metals market fool you. The economic underpinnings of much higher highs in gold are unshakeable.
I don't see the inflation he keeps talking about, but I do see discounts everywhere...
______
Oh, really? Have you paid college tuition for one of your kids recently? Checked gas prices? Checked prices of milk, eggs, bread now versus two years ago? Checked your utility bills and Internet service provider fees now versus two years ago?
Inflation is everywhere. It sneaks up slowly and most people are like the stupid frog in the water where the temperature is slowly raised to boiling, which of course kills the frog. The frog feels fine and doesn't notice all along........until he's dead.
Stupid, stupid sheeple.
Look at the chart, it's parabolic. No way is actual inflation that bad. Gold has priced in years of future inflation, just like tech stocks priced in years of future earnings growth back in 2000. I'm not saying it's gonna crash, but think about it people, does that chart remind you of anything? (Hint: look at housing prices in the mid-00s.)
_______
What you're NOT paying attention to or thinking about is the parabolic upward curve in money supply -- the insane creation of "money" out of thin air at rates that defy any kind of reason or prudence.
Have you considered the ramifications of the insane increases in total Fed credit, or the insane leverage used to buy worthless financial mortgage-backed bonds...a foolhardy worlwide practice that has set us on a course of failing banks and loss of wealth during a time of hyperinflation?
You too are like the dumb frog being slowly boiled.
WAKE UP. THINK.
Deflation is here, Keith, time to sell. I wish I had sold at $1000. I am hanging on now still, not taking my own advice, but I am looking to dump the first time gold peeks its head above $950 again.
I love Peter Schiff but he's wrong on inflation. We've just finished going through an inflationary period, and now it's all going down. The FED is out of room to cut, they can't inflate us out of this one.
_________
NOW IT'S ALL GOING DOWN?
You've gotta be kidding. Was your great granddad the captain of the Titanic?
The Fed is only getting warmed up with desperate rate-cutting and money-creating measures.
Don't be a chicken$h|t d|p$h|t.
I'm long on COST because in times of accelerating prices, many consumers flock there. Bought it at big deep in March and it's been good to me since then.
Inflation is here to stay.
We are finding less and less gold deposits, and the ones we are finding are of small deposits.
Totally true. My brother is a Geologist who worked for a Canadian mining company for 20 years in several jungles around the planet. It's extremely tough to find a new gold mine.
If you want to get the scoop on gold, you should listen to a Geologist who worked in the field for decades. We've bee buying lots of gold for years, as well as precious gems.
Hell, we're even running out of fresh water in this planet! Like Ted Turner said, we need to control the amount of people in this planet.
It's in the movie Idiocracy: The educated and productive people aren't having children because they're either career oriented or it's getting too expensive. Meanwhile, the ignorant people are having 7 children per household.
We've been replacing productive people with ignorant parasites who waste limited resources, create inflation and healthcare crises, and increase violence and taxes.
Something's got give sooner or later. It's out of control and all that matters for this gov or Wall Street, or Bernanke for that matter, it's continuing the lie for another quarter or next election. It's gonna blow!
ED,
You cannot compare the two.
Land is NOT what the people want, it is shelter.
So HOMES are the comparison to gold, not land.
Did you know the entire population of Earth lives on less than 15% of the land mass?
But I think you meant homes, and the supply of homes expanded at an exponential rate.
That increases supply, you comparison is invalid.
Gold will continue on a bull market. It's been underpriced because of various governments dumping it. This is coming to an end.
The US gov has no choice but to embrace high inflation to weasel out of its medicare responsibilities. And Bernanke has vowed to not let deflation happen.
Lastly, the lights are going off in South African gold mines. Say bye to 11% of the world's production.
Everything good about gold applies to silver. There are a several additional advantages to silver.
1) Industrial uses - antiseptic and superconducting to name a couple of new ones.
2) Just try to buy silver in your local coin or pawn shop at spot! They will either be out or selling at $20 an ounce or more. the price is being manipulated downward in the electronic markets. This manipulation will end when the industrial users encounter a shortage and push the price to whatever it takes.
anon 7:19:
'Theyre not making any more land' was a common saying by realtors in response to any mention of a bubble.
The arguments and blind faith in 'gold will go up' sound just like the r/e cheerleaders sounded in 2005. And any mention of a bubble/crash is refuted with r/e cheerleader talk of 2006/2007 of 'oh it's just a blip'. Or better yet sounds like someone suggesting nasdaq at 3000 was a great buying opportunity since you know, pets.com is due for a huge comeback and all.
Look at a chart of gold 2005-2008and it looks like nasdaq of 1997-2000 or Las Vegas r/e 2002-2005.
A bubble is a bubble is a bubble. And no it's not different this time.
Low on gold will be friday or monday, and going to 1600 by summer. By 2012 will be over 5000. But I expect them to call in gold, so you will have to sell it on the black market. We will return to the gold standard, Ron Paul right on everything.
BTW Ron Paul is a huge gold bug, just look at his portfolio.
The thing you must remember, is that during the Depression, the US Government made it illegal to buy/sell gold...ILLEGAL!!! So yeah, theoretically, it was valuable, but who knows how easy it was to trade it for FRNs for actual FOOD, you know, something of real value...
On the Schiff-angle: I remember hearing an interview with him on a radio show, and he was talking his book about how dollar will inflate to TP...also said there will be no private/domestic demand for treasuries...uhhh, bull****! Have you seen the IRX lately??? It's trading around 1.3% yield, but it spiked as low as 0.3%! The 13-week treasury has never had a print that low, ever. Everyone that owns that, is basically ok with losing 2.5% of their money every year (subtract inflation from yield). What's that mean? Everyone is AFRAID! Guess what, no one knows who the **** will blow up tomorrow nor what Uncle Bendover Bernanke will stick-save the banks with next; thus you have flight to treasuries. Return OF Capital, is more important right now than Return ON Capital, according to the market.
Basically, the inflation/deflation hypothesis goes like this:
If there's deflationary pressures, you inflate; if there's inflationary pressures, you deflate. Thus, Ben is fighting deflation. So there's two outcomes: either the FED wins => hyperinlfation, or the FED loses => net deflationary market pressures win.
How can the FED win, if the rest of the world refuses to play along with us? IT CAN'T!!!
So now you must ask yourself: is the world sick and tired of our ****? (yes) can they stomach more bullying? (no) China says nope, ECB says same thing: they're no longer following our lead, they're paying attention to their own currencies.
Also, the MBS slime has traveled all over the world...does the rest of the world have more slime than we do? You better figure out the answer to that question, because it will determine the fate of the globe...not to sound too gloomy...
Schiff says the rest of the world is basically ok; what do you think the truth is? Is he talking his book? Is he trying to make money? I think so, and I think the rest of the world is even more ****ed than we are => DEFLATION!
Post a Comment