Longtime HP readers know this blog at its core wasn't just about stupid housing prices.
It was about fighting back. Ending a mania. Righting wrongs. Going against the powerful. Giving the people a voice. Confronting the incompetent MSM. Waking the sheeple up. Exposing corruption and conmen.
And most importantly, it was about helping future generations confidently buy a home they could comfortably afford, without the promise of a lottery ticket's winnings and without the fear of a speculative stock.
So, now that housing has melted down, the conmen have been exposed, the realtors forever discredited, and the nation and world awakened, even though this story will still take years and years to play out to its natural conclusion, and there are many battles to come and arrests to be made, I simply ask:
As of today, have we won? And was it worth 'winning'?
March 13, 2008
HP'ers - Have We Won?
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54 comments:
We have won for ourselves, our families, and for those that would listen. It was always going to be and will be a Phyrric victory in regards to the society we live in, made up of sheeple who were deceived, or arrogantly and willfully ignorant.
Like in the movie 1408...
..."We've only just begun!"
Even Greg Swann admitted to the crash yesterday
Bravo Keith. You tried your best by giving a voice to the powerless and making people stop and think instead of acting on the sweet nothings of realtors and Wall Street con merchants. But there remains a major problem which is saving people from falling prey to their greed and the lure of quick and easy money. IMHO I think that is best left to the Almighty. Did we win by making people aware of the madness? Of course we did. Just look at home prices now and compare them to 2005 prices.
"WE" won Keith, but unfortunately (or fortunately) only we know that we won. Most Americans still don't have a damn clue!
You're kidding right? My tax dollars are being spent on what will be a multi-trillion dollar bailout. The dollar is being devalued on a daily basis making me poorer in real terms. And home prices while somewhat lower than peak, are still insanely priced in most of the country.
If this is victory, I'd hate to see what defeat looks like.
yes, it was worth it. this has been a great site...passionate, informative. thank you for your effort!
Well, I think that "victory" is a long way off. (We still have a central bank, the Federal Government is still full of economic morons, and the sheeple still think that debt is wealth).
Vindication on the other hand . . . HP is well vindicated. The only thing left to do now is to rub the REIC cheerleaders' noses in it.
While I love the sight, we didn't win anything. Rather, they failed and failed big. Collapsed under the weight of their own stupid greed and ignorance of basic econ.
HP did win in exposing the garbage (Yun, Lereah, Mozilo, Swan) early on. However, his garbage would have eventually revealed itself once the tide of greed went out.
It will be hard to say "we" won if the following (from this morning's WSJ) pans out:
"A Wall Street Journal survey of economic forecasters, to be released today, found that 32 of 51 economists (63%) said it is likely or certain that Washington will use public money to address the deepening housing crisis."
Most Americans are still clueless, so we still have work to do.
I don't think we've won anything. We might feel vindicated that we were right about the bubble and it's great that we avoided getting tied up in a debt trap BUT this economic collapse is going to effect us too.
So unfortunately we all LOSE.
DOPES!!! :)
No.
Most people know that things are starting to get bad, but they have no idea why. The forces of misinformation are strong and relentless.
You're kidding right? My tax dollars are being spent on what will be a multi-trillion dollar bailout. The dollar is being devalued on a daily basis making me poorer in real terms. And home prices while somewhat lower than peak, are still insanely priced in most of the country.
If this is victory, I'd hate to see what defeat looks like.
This is correct.
Although the ignorant and foolish will pay for their mistakes, so will the aware and prudent.
The only thing you can really do to protect yourself is to stay informed and stay the course. Eventually you might be in a position to take advantage of this debacle, but there are certainly no guarantees.
As of now? There seems to be little if any reward. Hang in there though. Something has got to give...
The post below this post lists five stages of a bubble. I believe we have been through the first four stages, a time when "victory" can only be measured individually...the antidotes of people renting and saving while neighbors splurge and HELOC. However, the fifth stage has yet to come, and whether or not it will is a matter with national implications and it is only on that scorecard that "victory" counts.
According to CNBC, WaMu just announced a new bonus package for top management. Apparently the "bad stuff," losses from crap loans doesn't count. Add this to Toll Brother's new structuring so that the CEO can get a bonus in a year this bad, it would seem that while we have made a good start, a great deal of work remains.
BTW any comments about Carlye?
Yes HP combined with other housing blog sites "won", but now you are struggling for a purpose and delving into matter far beyond your rudimentary understanding, i.e. the broader world economy.
Was it "worth" it?
The blogging community extracted no "price" so the question you seem to be asking is, "Was it worth promoting the 'ownership society' at the expense of the painful aftermath?"
No.
A bubble requires mass psychology to work, and this says something about human nature. I suppose the flow of information, starting from around the time of the Tulip Mania, or even the dawn of civilization, allows for this.
So victory may be using information systems (including schools) to educate enough people to prevent a the positive feedback system from forming. Unfortunately, I don't hold much hope that the herd mentality can ever be overcome.
But depending how you define "win", yes - HP was correct (no great insight to anyone who knows what a Ponzi scheme is).
creme de la puff
No. 3/4 of the house sellers are still delusional. Trending towards a win, but not there yet.
We haven't won yet Keith. We need to toss the idiots out of government who want to bail out everybody and issue $15,000 rebate checks to home buyers. We need to change the mindset of DC. That's a very tough battle.
But change starts from the grassroots and this and many other blogs have done an excellent job staying ahead of the curve.
I agree with the very first post. You have to look at your personal situation and be somewhat disconnected from the sheep roaming the country.
I feel I won for my family, with the help of HP. We sold our Florida house in 2005 for a large profit and now rent for less than half the cost of buying.
We took our profits and bought gold at $400. We got out of the stock market last June when it was at 13750.
Our family has no debt, steady cash flow, and enough cash to take advantage of the bottom one day.
I used to be much more connected to my fellow Americans. But after 2 terms of Bush and reading today that only 28% of adults have any clue how many soldiers have died in Iraq....lets just say I am looking out for my family and the others are on their own.
I feel we still have a long way to go before the average American repudiates the big hous syndrome. . .big house, 3 car garage, and long commute in a SUV. Most people I talk with feel this is just a "temporary" mess that will be cleaned up by a Resolution Trust, etc. They still talk about - "housing is a good long term investment". . .ok, thier time frame is now 5 to 10 years rather than 5 to 10 months, but the idea of house as ATM isn't quite dead.
It will take another 2 to 3 years of falling or stagnent prices before this does change. When people start talking more about getting 5% in a CD rather than "investing" in houses, then we will have won.
Amtex, Here Here! I also agree with the first post .And we also sold in Fl in 2005 and waiting for the bottom to come at this point not rally sure what will happen to me maybe there will be a housing bail- out We stick to ourself's now after trying to save a few friends as they laughed at us. I now am more in working on myself and enjoying the out come. Thank You Keith . ps.Amtex tks for your info on the other boardS a friend :)
Won?
We saw an obvious inconsistancy and bitched about it. We changed nothing. The best possible outcome from this bitching would be for prices to drop to affordable levels, and this has not happened.
All we have achieved is not believing the bullshit, and in my book, thats just standard operating procedure. You don't get a shiny star for rejecting bullshit.
You've lost. Now that the debate over the housing crash is mostly over, you're left with nothing to talk about.
Personally, I feel like I have won by getting out of the US stock market, buying commodities, never getting caught up in the housing mania, staying debt free, getting into a stable career, being responsible and teaching my kids the same.
However, as a society, we have lost. Greed, corruption, and stupidity of the players will result in increased inflation and taxation, so we will all have a heavy price to pay.
In the end, maybe I am net ahead by a bit, but not much.
I read this blog everyday. It's informative and helpful for those who don't really understand. If only 1/2 of recent homeowners had read your blog too! Keep up the good work Keith.
We have won, but in this case, winning is a bitch. We have started to see shit hit the fan, and already many are unemployed. What will happen between now and 2 years down the line. It will not be pretty.
Danny
I don't think the bloggers caused the bubble to end any sooner than it would have otherwise. The bubble ended when a couple of funds were announced to be worthless, due to the underlying subprime mortgages going bad.
The bubble went on as long as it possibly could have. No warnings were listened to, no rules changed when they could have done any good.
It all reinforces my sense of powerlessness to change things on a bigger level than my family. I guess it can still be done, but it would require a heck of a lot of luck as well as hard work - mostly luck in getting the ear of quite a few somebodies in power that have any sense of long term thinking - and those people are getting rarer and rarer due to the necessity of selling ones soul to buy one's way into congress.
We in the autism trenches will also likely have to wait until the powers that be are faced with the costs of institutionalizing autistic adults by the 100s of thousands. Nobody in power cares as long as it's the parents that are shouldering the burden.
Mark my words on this.
NO!
Housing prices in the Mid Hudson Valley NY area.
(Especially south of here, NYC metro area)
are still 300- 400% higher then they where in 2001, for no reason at all.
Housing is still totally unaffordable to the overwhelming majority of natives / middle income people.
Even though the FED lowered short term rates, Banks are not lowering 30 year fixed rates.
Banks are not reducing prices on homes in foreclosure or owned by them.
Banks are soo greedy they are holding out on homes until they find a sucker that would buy it for what the previous FBer owed them.
Bottom line, Houses are not on ‘Sale’ yet.
And until Banks begin passing some of the gov bailout goodies to its customers we are nowhere near winning.
Nobody can stop Bush and his chilling gang of reckless GOP criminals, lies and mass deceptions.
NOBODY!!!!!
Bwwwwa!
YOU LOOSE.
You had a good bitch fest about home prices. You made some funny jokes. You came up with some clever nicknames like Tanzilo and Helicopter Ben. Yet you all still live in shithole 1 bed 1 bath apartments, drive 20 year old cars and live the lives of losers.
If you want to call that winning, go ahead.
The game in in the refrigerator, but the its not over yet. This is more like having a 30 point lead at the start of the 4th quarter of a basketball game.
Sorry, I don't see it. Every time I read a post, I think about it a while and get on with my day.
When I have time to read the comments, though, I see a bunch of tin-foil hat wearing freaks who leave little doubt as to their age. It takes a while for people to get their slice of humble pie in life.
The opinions I read here are just as hard to accept as those on the NAR website because of the peripheral thoughts people choose to share about themselves.
It's to be expected, though. Every decade has something for people to point and say, "This is it." Kids in the 1920's were slightly rewarded, but the world didn't end.
I will repeat the comment of another, if this is victory...
BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA
BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA
Another bailout is coming. Yeah you idiots are winners.
Under this proposal, the government would allocate as much as $20 billion up front. It would use those funds to buy up mortgages from investors in a reverse-auction process, at prices below the face value of the loans. In a reverse auction, sellers compete against one another, slashing prices until a buyer - in this case the government - says yes to a deal.
Since the government would buy the mortgages at a discount, it can pass the savings on to the borrowers by reducing the mortgage balances by the same percentage as the discount.
So if a batch of loans was bought at a 30% discount, the government would be paying $70,000 for a $100,000 mortgage. The government would then modify the mortgage, reducing the outstanding balance to $70,000. That would mean a big drop in the monthly payments, which would help many borrowers keep their homes.
Translation: every home owner just got a 30% reduction in their mortgage payment.
Thanks suckers.
so where is HP going?
amtex, could it be that 28% of people don't keep daily tabs on the dead soldier tally like you do? Or that people don't see two terms of Bush as a reason to view themselves as divided from others? Or that subconsciously you don't like people and find reasons to hate society? My guess is #3...
So some people don't place the same level of importance on things as you do. That's how the world works. Of the thousands of causes an individual can take up, some people choose differently. The Greenpeace youngsters don't seem to get it when I explain it to them, but I've come to expect that.
Wow - well said. It has been the rich keep getting richer. Case in point - we are just outside Denver in Evergreen Colorado in mid to upper mid class area. Housing here has been slammed just like elsewhere in the country - prices dropping 5-15% depending upon area. Friend of ours works Breckendridge and Vail areas in real estate. His comment - what slow down? They can't keep inventory and prices have gone up 10% over last year. Rich get richer.
"Even Greg Swann admitted to the crash yesterday"
----
and no-one cares about him any more
Yes, we won if that means my wife Janez spends all the grocery money on coke, and my daughter Brittnee spends her whole allowance on X, and I am paying 20 percent more fro my Schlitz this year than I did last. Oh yea, and my son Rittlan is breaking the bank trying buy AR-15 ammo.
"Yet you all still live in shithole 1 bed 1 bath apartments, drive 20 year old cars and live the lives of losers."
No, Mr. Know it all, it's 6 bedrooms and paid for with 3/4 acre. The car is 22 years old. The classic Chevy truck is 44 years old. Get your facts straight!
NO ONE will win this one, but the Bankers and sleazy lenders.....
Fannie and Freddie will be finished in 6-8 months, a massive housing bailout is already underway and WE will get the bill!!
In a way, you were almost more rewarded by taking as much as you could get and walking.
They should be giving $25K rebate checks to anyone that buys a house this year or next...and WHY NOT??
They have already rewarded those who lived beyond their means and made wreckless financial decisions with rate freezes and loan workouts.
WHY NOT reward people with good credit, financially responsible, who waited, saved and knew better than to buy a house with a crappy ARM?? If anyone deserves a break buying a house now, it is THESE people!!
Reward the people who will make a great financial foundation from which to re-build on!!
"They should be giving $25K rebate checks to anyone that buys a house this year or next"
If I just wait a little while, I'll get a better deal without bothering with the rebate check!
It's kind of an empty victory. Best I can describe it would be deciding not to fly because of bad weather then finding out the flight you were to be on crashed. You avoided disaster but disaster happened any way. Yeah I kept my house purchasing limited and never maxed it. I prevented my parents from maxing out thiers like they wanted to at the very peak, but still the crash happened, was destined to happen. And now we all get to watch our false economy implode and hope things don't get 1930's out of hand.
I warned my family, some listened some didn't. I feel vindicated, I don't feel like anything was won. We knew this would happen, and now it's a little frightening to unfold.
The battle is not yet won because there are still large, powerful forces out there -- the banks, govt. non-bank financial institutions, etc. - that want to drag this out and try to keep housing prices high. Well, eventually they will lose because nothing they can do will stop the inexorable housing decline. And there is still a huge percentage of Americans who are in complete denial...in fact, more are in denial than not. They still don't get it. Once they do, prices will really come down.
When the final barriers have been overcome, then we will have won. Until then, we all need to stay on top of this and keep on fighting. We need especially to fight the govt. bailout proposals which will keep the undeserving in homes they don't own and continue to shut out the deserving people with down payments.
In the words of Ben Franklin before signing the Declaration of Independence: "We must hang together, gentlemen...else we shall most assuredly hang separately."
Our Independence Day is coming, but the fight is not over yet.
"WHY NOT reward people with good credit, financially responsible, who waited, saved and knew better than to buy a house with a crappy ARM?? If anyone deserves a break buying a house now, it is THESE people!!
Reward the people who will make a great financial foundation from which to re-build on!!"
Unfortunately that will never happen, because then we would have LEADERSHIP in Washington, instead of the retards that currently run the place. Leadership means doing what is best NOT what stupid opinion polls think. Unfortunately you probably have more of a chance of winning the lottery than that happening anytime soon.
We did "win" a little bit.
There is no doubt in my mind that some of the perceptive hedge funds started reading the bubble blogs and put on short positions in many complex derivative securities.
This lead to the collapse of the phony companies sooner than otherwise.
The U.K. and Europe still haven't popped.
I think there are fewer bubble bloggers there, and the anti-establishment culture isn't as strong.
So, yes the US has benefitted a little bit from the bubble bloggers. We're getting the pain over with first.
How bad will it get in Ireland and U.K.?
YOU PEOPLE CRACK ME UP. I WAS PREDICTING THE HOUSING CRASH LONG BEFORE YOU WERE. I SEEM TO RECALL A LOT OF BET-HEDGING ON THIS BOARD, LOTS OF PEOPLE PLAYING BOTH ENDS AGAINST THE MIDDLE AND SAYING "WELL, MAYBE THERE WONT BE A CORRECTION AFTER ALL."
ME AND BLOWFLY WERE THE ONLY VOICES THAT UNHESITATINGLY, UNRESERVEDLY PREDICTED THE CRASH FROM THE VERY BEGINNING. THE REST OF YOU ARE JUST COMING LATE TO MY PARTY.
Won my ASS !!!
The Americano land is pathetic !!!
The Americano occupants are pitiful !!!
#####
This Americano nation and its citizens, occupants, dwellers are low, pitiful, pathetic and all at once despicable !!!
How can you call yourself the greatest nation on Earth when dishonor, divorce, immorality, greed, cheat is every day's code of conduct, the way to conduct business in the land of the Snapper Turtle ???
Look around you: What do you see ? Fat-ass Americano male and female driving that chicken-coop, pig-raising SUV or F350, for what I may ask ? So you can feel big and powerful, huh !!!. Here is a suggestion if you want to feel all almighty, big, and powerful: Go and invade Red China, right now, at this minute, and see what the result may turn out to be.
As I have stated over and over again: This land of the Fat-Ass Americano Homosexual Erectus is a cesspool of sewage now. And to add insult to that, the Americano is being slowly roasted nicely over a bed of white hot charcoal, skewered from mouth to ass like a Snapper Turtle, juice dripping down, fat oozing, sputtering, succulent flesh aromatically wafting hungryly in the air.
Americano Homosexual Erectus == Roasted Snapper Turtle !!!
Go Hick, Hillbilly and Cracker Nuthead. Party all you can while the going is still good. Drink that Cold Mountain rotgut moonshine until you puke your snapper turtle gut out. The doomsday is coming and it will judge you and your heathen crowd harshly.
"And the failure hangs over the State like a great sorrow.
... and in the eyes of the people there is the failure; and in the eyes of the hungry there is a growing wrath.
In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage."
WHY NOT reward people with good credit, financially responsible, who waited, saved and knew better than to buy a house with a crappy ARM?? If anyone deserves a break buying a house now, it is THESE people!!
Yeah right, Obama will surely reward the responsible people. LMAO!!!
The whole platform of the DemonCrats is to reward bad behavior and and the squeaky wheel freak groups
love me some snapper turtle hac
When the Schiller index gets back down to a pre - 9/11 level, when irresponsible lenders no longer have a job, when frauds are in jail, when Kiyosaki Trump Cramer and Greenspan are no longer best-selling authors, when the Federal Reserve starts taking its anti-inflation mandate seriously, when Congress stops wasting taxpayer on the housing bailout, when "real estate investors" are ashamed to admit how they got rich - that will be victory.
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