What will fall harder and faster
A) European house values
B) The Euro
A) European house values
B) The Euro
C) European economies
D) None - it's different over there/here
D) None - it's different over there/here
March 03, 2008
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45 comments:
euro -- it's the new bubble
A followed by B.
Got dollars?
Interest rates are still holding and not going down like in the US, so i see the euro still gaining on the dollar.
But house prices went op by 10% a year here too, so that is gonna hurt soon.
The loans may not have been as ridiculous as in the US, except maybe UK and spain. But people overpaid on their houses and being upside down will have a simmilar effect here as it is having in the US right now.
In the long run I see Trichet caving in and slashing the rates too, but i dont think the euro will go down untill he does that.
I will choose one from column A, B, and C in that order time-wise.
No, no place is different... OK, maybe Antarctica.
Housing market in Euroland's various national markets heated up and are now cooling down. I think some will suffer just as bad if not worse than the US (UK & Spain). Others have always been very expensive and as long as they did not get loosie goosie like the US in terms of lending then they should be fine (Germany). Other non-euroland naitons in Europe might of had the UK's toxicity imported and they also may suffer (e.g. Bulgaria's Black sea coastal areas).
Germany is different, they are running a trade surplus. and have the world's largest exports according to the CIA world factbook.
I don't know about the rest of those guys though, although not being tied to a particular country is an advantage of the Euro, there is less reason to hyperinflate the currency.
It's just a matter of time.
They will have their day of recognition.
Danny
Dollars will be be thrown into the oceans.
None. This has empire in the making all over it. The dollar is toast.
The European housing market bust (with the exception of Germany) is going to make the American housing bust look like a Sunday picnic...
HOW best to pay? Any good short ETFs for Europe like SRS in America?
Marky Mark
Enjoy your Euro's while you can.
A then B then C then we'll have WWIII to restart the world economy.
There is no 'Europe' - Germany, for example, had its (eastern) real estate boom in the early 90s, when the rest of the world was in recession. The crash of that bubble also caused a German slowdown when the rest of the world was doing well economically.
And not only did the fallout of that bubble curb real estate appetites in Germany, German regulations and practices are entirely different from those found in many countries.
For example, if you sell a house before owning it 10 years, you are taxed on the proceeds of 'speculation.' That's right, owning a house for only 8 years and selling it for a profit is speculation in the eyes of the law.
Or take mortgages - which are generally sold in 10 year spans (though not required to be paid off in that span - though pre-payment/'Sondertilgung' may be allowed, it is generally only allowed if the bank still makes a reasonable amount of its expected income from your interest), and in which house appreciation is expressly forbidden by accounting rules from being included in any re-financing before that 10 year period is over. No cash-out refis possible in Germany - as a matter of fact, trying to explain the concept here is met with much the same lack of understanding as trying to explain how a majority of Americans reject evolution.
Spain, Ireland, and Britain are an entirely different case, of course.
France and Italy sit somewhere between the two extremes.
The eastern countries have their own framework, but to compare the Czech Republic to Bulgaria is about the same as talking about a North American real estate bubble, and comparing Mexico to Canada.
And since the eurozone excludes Britain, much of the talk about 'Europe' housing problems is already conceptually flawed.
The euro is only a bubble against the dollar - it is not a bubble in buying oil from the Middle East, including Iran, or paying for Brazilian biofuels, or acquiring Algerian natural gas. That is, when buying real things from real people, the euro seems quite welcome. As it is in Manhattan.
After all, when you have the world's largest exporter as part of the currency's foundation, the question is not what you can buy from others, but what others can buy from you.
It is the sort of old fashioned, pre-financial engineering miracle that left Europe behind the dynamic miracle that is the American economy.
And if you believe that, you have a house to sell, right?
In the short term, the European housing market gets toasted the fastest.
However, in the long term, everything in Eurpoe will be toast. Therefore I ultimately bet on America over Europe. Europe has only another 40 or so years left to go until its effete, non-breeding multiculturalists die off. Then, the vacuum will be filled, and Europe will be populated by, guess who?
http://tinyurl.com/8mkmr
None. The europeans don't have any problems because they are chic and sophisticated unlike boorish americans who are responsible for all the worlds problems.
no, but i got silver
Andrew Hac and his shitty country is next. Oh this Euro-Trash can cry all he wants about how America is bad. His country is much worse.
Europe is in worse shape than America. You think we have a real estate bubble? Check out Ireland, U.K., Spain, and they are in a real mess. Real estate prices are way out of the range that fundamentals (price to income among many) would dictate.
Spain is numero uno for the fall. . .the Financial Times this morning has some good horror stories about that. . .can UK be far behind??
euro is toast
The Euro, like the EU itself, is a convenient fiction. When things get tough, Europeans have a proclivity to conflict and killing each other in large numbers as is proven through 1500 years of history.
Sure, this time it will be different - LOL.
What will fall faster,
borkas pecker when he see's a woman!
.
D. except for the UK where housing values will tumble indeed, because they overbuilt thanks to the same crazy loans we had here.
On the mainland, most people still feel that a mortgage for more than 20 yrs is ridiculous. Yep, they're a little backward and don't buy a home unless they can afford it. Meanwhile they rent a small apartment or house until they have saved enough for a down payment.
From "Eurothinker"
Kieth - I'm being considered for a role in Eindoven, Netherlands. Given the state of things, dollar, euro, etc, if you needed a job badly, would you go over there or not? Just curious to hear your take....
A then B
I say it's different over there. The Europeans are smarter than Americans and should be able to afford homes at 20x income
Europes got problems...
BUT THEY'RE SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO F#CKIN' PISSED AT WALL ST. LOADING THEM UP WITH BAD PAPER, THEY ARE GOING TO STICK IT TO THE DOLLAR BY KEEPING RATES HIGH!
The Housing follow by the Euro Down fall.
This will propelled America to come back as the dollar begins to climb when the Europeans begin dropping rates as fast as Helicopter Bernanke has been doing.
If the Europeans think they are the only once eating popcorn and watching the U.S. market tank, they are in for a rude awakening. They will soon be picking up the popcorn crumbs. I believe this housing crisis is actually worst in Europe then it is here in the U.S.
Its better the U.S takes the hit now that way we can watch the Europeans who are laughing at us now, bleed. Like the old saying its better to be the last one laughing, and I think that will be the case!
None.
I've been hearing and reading about the death/collapse of Europe for 30 years now.
Absolutely no one has been able to deliver the corpse.
Europe will continue to slowly chug along as they've always have, as America's best days are behind her.
In the long race, the tortoise always
wins.
Depends on which country. England and Spain had the same kind of credit bubble and are experiencing the some real trouble. But here in Holland, where most people I know don't even use a single credit card, and where every home buyer gets 30 year fixed mortgages, things seem to be just fine. Now, I don't know how other EU countries' downfalls will effect us, but so far so good. Maybe gas will rise, but I don't need a car here and my bike is free. Food costs may rise, but nearly everyone here makes the majority of meals at home or brown bags it, so we can adjust. It's just not that much of a consumerist or show-offy society. Taxes are high, the cities are clean, and health care is handled. Not utopia, if you want to go buy something at midnight- and believe me, as an expat formerly from Vegas... sometimes I am like begging these vacationing socialists to open their stores and sell me what I want NOW!- but in the end, there is not a lot of suffering and it looks like we'll weather this just fine.
1st to go is the housing bubble in places like Spain, Bulgaria, and such, followed by the UK which will resist the downturn, the most, as the sheiks, ex-KGBers, ordinary billionaires [ like Murdoch and Mittal), entertainers [ Madonna, Bjork ] eek it out in Kensington, Chelsea, and such.
Next, is the European economy, sans Germany, as Asia only buys precision instruments from them. The other economies of Europe can only export overpriced goods; that's not a sustainable model sans Norway [ who's an oil rich state].
And finally, as east Asian and near eastern economies start to equilibrate, the Euro, as a forex holding hedging plan will unravel as investors/bourses realize that a phony economy cannot prop up a global currency, indefinitely, as they'd learned from the post-British Empire, Pound Sterling, and the post-war American century, US dollar.
>None.
>I've been hearing and reading about
>the death/collapse of Europe for 30
>years now.
>Absolutely no one has been able to
>deliver the corpse.
>Europe will continue to slowly chug
>along as they've always have, as
>America's best days are behind her.
>In the long race, the tortoise
>always wins.
You Dumb Ass, if it weren't for the U.S. your little ass would be Hitler raped by now.
Nah this shit was global the Eurotrash are next!
Netherlands and Germany are different. Right, like Las Vegas and Phoenix and Miami and San Diego and Riverside and Sacramento and Boston and DC were different.
Home prices will plummet in Europe too. This "its different" over here, over thereBS is what got us in trouble.
The laws of economics are universal. If you no gotta the dough, no trya to bakah the bread.
I've been to Europe, recently. It's doing "ghhhhooooood" . Comparing to America :
1. Not fighting any stupid war (the root of all evil).
2. Saving energy, saving fuel.
3. Mass transit, railroads - bigger, better, effective solutions almost everywhere.
4. The average guy looks smarter, "more informed citizenry".
Of course, housing-bubble there too, but that is pretty difficult to compare, which one is worse (america-bubble or europe-bubble). So let's just say is the same shit.
If the oil will be 500$ /brl, I cant see America running. Europe ?! well ... surviving.
My money is on Europe. Short and long term.
Quote:
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Andrew Hac and his shitty country is next. Oh this Euro-Trash can cry all he wants about how America is bad. His country is much worse.
Europe is in worse shape than America. You think we have a real estate bubble? Check out Ireland, U.K., Spain, and they are in a real mess. Real estate prices are way out of the range that fundamentals (price to income among many) would dictate.
#####
Yes, it is the time to pay the Piper for that Wild-Wild-West Housing Bubble Party last night. Add in the maxed out CC debt, the home equity extract, the spend-like-there-is-no-tomorrow mentality of the Americano, the oversize SUV, the run-down-the-cow F350 pickup truck and the Americano is now having a handful of shits, pukes, and hangover biles to deal with. But worry not, my dear fat-ass buckteeth Americano, Dubya Shrub will lead you through the dark, ominous, pee-in-the-pant time. He has to, he has no choice, since the dim nitwit Americano voted for him 2 terms in a row. Yes, it is fittingly beautiful: "The head turkey leads the horde of wacka-doo-doo, BORKAFATTY, blind turkey down the gutter...".
Now, a little verse from the "Man With The White Beard" to cheer things up for the horde of Snapper Turtle, Porpoise, Armadillo, Raccoon, Opossum, Porcupine, Skunk, and "BORKAFATTY" AKA :::The Pig:::
Psalm 23:4
"Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of the Housing Bubble,
I will fear no foreclosure:
for Dubya Shrub & Penis Shooter art with me:
thy bail-out and thy rebate-check, they comfort me."
To Tangelo Mozilo -
That article must be an excerpt from Steyn's book "AMerica Alone."
An easy, fascinating read....HPer's should get a copy.
I just returned from Ukraine, just another bubble country now. Prices in the capital, Kiev, are hundreds of times more than the average person's wages. I have no idea how anyone can afford to purchase an apartment there, with prices on average $2 - 3,000 per sq. meter. It's even higher in the closer in areas (and don't even think about Kreshatik, it's off the charts expensive).
I can't figure out who is buying all these apartments that are popping up like mushrooms all across the city, unless it's crook Russians trying to launder their money.
I can't wait for prices to start crashing there, but it hasn't happened yet. Speculation is the order of the day, still. Kiev is a beautiful city, but not worth these kind of prices! If Keith thought Croatia was bad, he should take a trip to Kiev, it's beyond belief now.
Do you ever care about yen?
anonopussy said:
You Dumb Ass, if it weren't for the U.S. your little ass would be Hitler raped by now.
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My..my!!... such anger and an anal fixation too. You sound like the son of many fathers. Bend over, Americano
mongrel, your corrupt country wants to ram you again.
I'm tired of hearing people defending some of the Euro countries by saying things like "they didn't have the crazy lending standards that America did, so they're okay".
Sorry, but no "subprime" mortages needed to create a bubble. It helps, but it is not neccessary. The dot-com bubble, Dutch tulip mania, and most other classic bubbles didn't involve "sub-prime" and we all know how those ended.
The bottom line is, if the home prices in any country can not be justified by fundamentals (income, rents, etc) there IS a bubble, and it WILL pop.
So let's quit talking about what kind of mortgages they had in each country - it is irrelevant. The bottom line is how out-of-whack the prices are compared to the underlying fundamentals.
A
The more the dollar goes down, the more pressure on the Europeans.
Danny
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My..my!!... such anger and an anal fixation too. You sound like the son of many fathers. Bend over, Americano
mongrel, your corrupt country wants to ram you again.
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MY..my!!... such snobbishness and Anglo fixation too. You sound like the son of many Hitlers. Bend over, Anglo Euro Scum, your new Hitler continent awaits to ram you again.
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