February 04, 2008

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day



What's the best thing to come out of the Great Housing Crash & Mortgage Meltdown?

The realtors' business model implosion?
Homes becoming affordable for future generations?
Creative finance going out the window?
Unemployed mortgage brokers and bankers?
Rents being so laughable cheap?
Housing hucksters being permanently discredited?
?????????



57 comments:

Anonymous said...

The important lessons we learned about greed and dishonesty.


NOT

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

Best thing is the destruction of Scottsdale's fake economy and a hopeful return to the nice, normal town it used to be in the 90s.

satan said...

It is not over till the 681 trillion (yes trillion) derivatives market collapses.

Anonymous said...

The best thing is that maybe Frank will eventually get over not being able to get into Axis/Radius. Or Anderson's Fifth Estate. Or the Salty Senorita. Or....you get the idea.

Anonymous said...

Best things about the housing bubble and crash are all the great new additions to the vernacular:

*House ATM

*Nouveau Riche University

*Realty Whore

Other than that it's just been a huge debt drain on the US economy and will probably be a major factor in the decline of US hegemony and spell the end of the US as an economic superpower.

tangelo mozilo said...

Return to housing affordability.

6%...The longest living scam said...

Is the 6% scam history yet? If not the implosion is not complete...

David said...

Abolishment of the Federal Reserve, return to commodity backed money, and an economy built upon savings and capital, not leveraged debt?

Marky Mark said...

That when you feel and know something is very wrong and can find nothing about in the MSM - the internet can be a very good thing.

Marky Mark

pen pal said...

You are all missing the big picture. In the modern banking system, debt = money. Read that equation again and think about what that implies for the system we use in our daily lives. The destruction of debt supporting one asset class (housing) must be offset by creation of more debt in another asset class or the system will collapse.

The banks and Wall Street don't want your "problem" to be solved! They just want the ability to push more debt into the economy somewhere.

Enough IS enough said...

F*ck Scottsdale Jerk.

Why not start and maintain your own blog and spare us all your ramblings about that ghetto and the losers that inhabit it?

Enough is enough.

wc said...

I don't think any of those things have come to fruition - yet. I'm agog that while lenders are now requiring good credit and verifiable documents - they are still not requiring 20% down.

Anonymous said...

We have not learned anything. We are still a society of Greed and materialism and we are going to pay a big penalty for it.

bigahole said...

We forget more than we learn so that the cycle can repeat.

Anonymous said...

I was told by a financial advisor, that we should buy now because interest rates are low and housing will not fall much further in our location. (It is a NJ beach town). He has nothing to gain by telling us to take our investments and buy a home. The fact is prices are still very high and you get a really crappy house for all the money.
So could this be a possibility? I appreciate the feedback, as I would love to buy a house, but have held off for 2 years. Thanks.

Randy said...

Homes becoming affordable for future generations

Anonymous said...

The dose of reality

Andy in San Diego said...

Stop it, people! It's a HOUSE, not a HOME. You're buying (or not buying) a HOUSE. See, all the NAR has to do is say "home" enough times...

Anonymous said...

"I was told by a financial advisor..."

Lemme guess, he's been a financial advisor for a year and he graduated from South New Jersey College of Agriculture?

Anonymous said...

.

The biggest things to come out of this,


Fraud, greed, lust!


.

Anonymous said...

they are still not requiring 20% down.

February 04, 2008 2:37 PM
------------

Nobody and I mean NOBODY has 20% of current prices to throw down! Maybe the top 2% do, but they have homes already.

Anonymous said...

...Lemme guess, he's been a financial advisor for a year and he graduated from South New Jersey College of Agriculture?


Unfortunately no - he graduated from Princeton and has been in the business for over 20 years. That is the part that concerns me, is that with the Fed/gov't intervention into housing, could he be right? I hate to think that is true also. I am not a big fan of spending 600k on a 1400 square ft. home, but last year that house was 700k. I'd like to think we have future price declines too.
I certainly would not jump in and buy b/c he said so. I appreciate the feedback I get from this site and weigh it heavily before making a decision.

Anonymous said...

I think the greatest thing that came out of this for me personally, was learning as much about economics as I have.

In a way it has also made me fear an economic meltdown. As a result I have started to learn how to grow my own food in my yard. To learn how to do basic things and to prepare for the worst.

emmy said...

Keith, I think you are short sighted a bit. Sure it will be good when prices reset, better regulation,etc. but the down side is very down. This is a big, big problem. Many people will live at a much lower standard than before, and I don't just mean by the square foot. There is no glory in poverty.

Anonymous said...

"Rents being so laughable cheap" is a pipe dream. Rents in nice neighborhoods like the one I live in have GONE UP. Still $1800-2000 / mo for a 2 bedroom in California. Less people owning means more people renting, so there is not much downward pressure on rents. Current energy and metal costs are here to stay due to demand by emerging nations.

The good is that rent / own ratios are becoming sane again.

sac'to watcher said...

Anonymous Andy in San Diego said...

Stop it, people! It's a HOUSE, not a HOME. You're buying (or not buying) a HOUSE. See, all the NAR has to do is say "home" enough times...

Amen brother. The biggest propaganda of all is using the word "home" when it's really a house. I mentioned that on this blog over a year ago and yet Keith still uses "home".

Neither of us can take credit. Gore Vidal pointed this out over 15 years ago...

edd said...

Relearning healthy fears...
fear of ignorance;
fear of neglect;
fear of ease.

Anonymous said...

If Debt = Money

Then decrease in debt = decrease in money

This is called deflation

Econ 101: When supply decreases, the price increases. This means that the dollars you have today will be worth more tomorrow.

It's similar to OIL... When OPEC reduces supply, the price of gas goes up. Get it now?

Anonymous said...

How did you like the sucker's rally last week to shave the sheep?

More sucker's rally to come. DOPES! step forward to lose your shirt. Cramer loves sheep like you!

Anonymous said...

The sad thing is that they'll only be a homedebtor until Dec 21, 2012.

Anonymous said...

Schadenfreude.

Blowfly said...

I certainly would not jump in and buy b/c he said so. I appreciate the feedback I get from this site and weigh it heavily before making a decision.

What you get from this site is a biased pile of imbecilic drivel that you can only weigh against a pile of fecal matter. If you are relying on the advice from any of these retarded highschool dropout renting cretins then you deserve to get burned. Why would you look for advice in an online mental institution. Buy because if you don't some other shark will grab it and you'll be joining the guys under the bridge sooner or later!

Lady Di said...

Without a doubt, homes becoming affordable for the future generation.

Next I would like to see the college tuition bubble pop, and those costs come tumbing down.

Then I think the future generation is good to go...

Poor Dad said...

> Unfortunately no - he graduated from Princeton and has been in the business for over 20 years.

The smartest guy in the room? I doubt it.

Remember February, 2000? How many of these "well educated" salespeople were telling you to sell tech stocks, and build up cash, precious metals, and bonds? How many of them would have laughed in your face and given you some BS reason why tech stocks never go down and you have to buy now?

Better yet, as him what his advice was in 1990 about speculative purchases of real estate, and how that differs from today.

Anonymous said...

I have 20%...and so do a lot of other people that rented and saved. In fact, I have 100%. But I'm not buying until prices are down

Anonymous said...

Only thing to come out of it is bitter renters feeling a little less bitter...not much though. And at the end of the day still bitter losers in life.

Made in the Shadenfreude said...

Regression to the mean.

oh yea, one more...

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Anonymous said...

NJ: advice: rent for at least one more FULL year The PITI on that $600,000 house is at least $4000 a month. You can probably rent that equivalent house $2,000 to $2500 a month. In one Full year (jan or Feb 2009) you'll see the situation better. 2008 is the year to save capital not spend capital.

Anonymous said...

Lady Di said...

Without a doubt, homes becoming affordable for the future generation.

Next I would like to see the college tuition bubble pop, and those costs come tumbing down.

Then I think the future generation is good to go...

February 04, 2008 7:40 PM

Man I wish I had your glass half full.

Anonymous said...

Don't know if it will happen, but a return to smaller, more efficient houses and lower commisions for realty people for helping sell a house.

Anonymous said...

I am not a big fan of spending 600k on a 1400 square ft. home, but last year that house was 700k.
___________________________________

Then just rent as I do.

scottsdale ain't that bad said...

While its not perfect, I can think of about 1000 worse places than Scottsdale.

Anonymous said...

Less people owning means more people renting, so there is not much downward pressure on rents.

haha... I see we have a comedian here.

1 out of 7 houses in the U.S. is empty. Never in the history of the U.S. have there been so many empty houses, either number-wise or percentage-wise.

Anonymous said...

Why do I look for advice in an online mental institution?

Simple - I hate realtors and do not trust them. I also enjoy living my life as a lunatic.

Paul E. Math said...

Don't be misled by someone's education. Look at Ben Stein, the 'genius', and how WRONG he has been on housing and the economy the last 2 years. Don't confuse 'education' with 'wisdom'.

Now is NOT the time to buy. Even in a NJ beach town. We are NOT running out of land - that is another myth.

Watch for Wall St. bonuses to be way down this year and then, finally, we'll see a significant reduction in house and condo prices in NYC and New Jersey.

Anonymous said...

"Anonymous said...
I was told by a financial advisor, that we should buy now because interest rates are low and housing will not fall much further in our location. (It is a NJ beach town). He has nothing to gain by telling us to take our investments and buy a home. The fact is prices are still very high and you get a really crappy house for all the money.
So could this be a possibility? I appreciate the feedback, as I would love to buy a house, but have held off for 2 years. Thanks."

Maybe your financial adviser is just looking for a polite way of telling you that some bad sh!t is coming down as far as the markets go. A house is eventually going to be worth what you paid for it. Might take a decade or two but if the markets crash a lot of those stocks are never coming back.

Anonymous said...

I think the greatest thing that came out of this for me personally, was learning as much about economics as I have.

I have to second that statement.

I had a front row seat for the dot com bubble. I remember the huge numbers of individuals giving me "advice" as to how to capitalize on the "new economy". When that fizzled, I spent a great deal of time reading on how things function in a broader sense and it was a real eye opener.

Same can be said for the housing bubble. Reading many books and blogs on housing affordability measures, rent versus buy ratios, etc., it was very interesting. Years ago, I was completely in the camp of "renting is just burning money". But now with more experience and knowledge under my belt, I re-evaluated that position.

Not to take sides but it really just comes down to the numbers. It is very simply to determine if an investment is good or bad via simple calculations. Perhaps that is generalizing, but from my perspective, I definately have more scrutiny on any investment classes nowadays than I did years ago.

Anonymous said...

President Obama.

Here is why NOT to vote for Bush III (McCain, Hillary, GOP [besides Ron Paul)

the war in Iraq was unpopular, the colonel knew that, but unpopularity was illegal. The legal position was that the American military presence in the Middle East had the full support of the population, and to say otherwise was to break the law. To break the law was to be a criminal and criminals were not to be tolerated and it was right to come down on them heavily with the full panoply of the law and with hobnailed boots and lathi sticks as well. The key to understanding this position was the word integral and its associated concepts. the war in Iraq was integral to the American effort and the American effort was to preserve the integrity of the nation. Integrity was a quality to be honored and an attack on the integrity of the nation was an attack on its honor and was not to be tolerated. Therefore the war in Iraq was to be honored and all other attitudes were dishonorable and consequently illegal. Iraq was an integral part of American oil wealth. An integer was a whole and America was an integer and fractions were illegal. Fractions caused fractures in the integer and were thus not integral. Not to accept this was to lack integrity and implicitly or explicitly to question the unquestionable integrity of those who did accept it. Not to accept this was latently or patently to favor disintegration. This was subversive. Subversion leading to disintegration was not to be tolerated and it was right to come down on it heavily whether it was of the overt or covert kind. The legally compulsory and enforceable popularity of the war in Iraq was thus a matter of integrity, pure and simple, even if the truth was that the war in Iraq was unpopular. When the truth and integrity conflicted in was integrity that had to be given precedence. Not even the truth could be permitted to dishonor the nation. Therefore the war in Iraq was popular even though it was not popular. It was a simple enough matter to understand.

satan said...

Funny song that involves people overspending on their house and furnishings and eating ramen noodles of granite countertops.

http://tinyurl.com/2q538v

ICEMAN said...

The best thing that has come out of this crash is that on this blog, I made Jan - Feb predictions which included THE NEW YORK GIANTS WILL WIN SUPERBOWL LED BY ELI MANNING AND WILL OUTPLAY TOM BRADY!

I called this before the playoffs even started.

GO BIG BLUE, THE WORLD CHAMPS!!!

Come on guys you have to give me credit on that one.

Keith, my sources have told me that Lowes stores throughout southern california and beyond are starting to have good size layoffs per store. These are not just seasonal but also permanent and mgr. positions. The layoffs started on Saturday and will continue in the near future. All future building projects are on hold.

My last report on city of riverside and county of riverside budget problems was confirmed by THE PRESS ENTERPRISE just 2 days later. They also expressed deep concerns over diminishing sales tax revenue. 20 year COUNTY REP. BOB BUSTER was quoted as saying " This is the worst reversal of fortune in this area I have ever seen" when questioned about the overall situation in property taxes and sales tax revenue decrease.


ICEMAN

Anonymous said...

I learned what it takes to be free:
- no debt, so I can chose what I do next.
- no home ownership, so I can pack up in the old motorhome and leave on short notice.
- no more investments to worry about, except the CDs in credit unions.
- no property taxes, so uncle can't come after me to directly finance the next pork belly.
- good tools, and know how to use them, so I can fix ALL my own stuff.
- a lot of thoughtful information on this website, to help me understand what's been going on, and how to stay clear.

Without the housing bubble, I mighta' got shackled and chained in place for the rest of my days. A 30 year mortgage can be debtors prison if the chips fall wrong.

Remember friends, you'll never be free until you get rid of most of the shit that "owns you". Look carefully; you'll see a lot of us living under the radar and doing OK.

Jill said...

"wc said...I don't think any of those things have come to fruition - yet. I'm agog that while lenders are now requiring good credit and verifiable documents - they are still not requiring 20% down."

February 04, 2008 2:37 PM

They can't. In my area houses start at 430k (and that would be a bargain). 20% down would be 86k.

How many Americans have 86k in a non-retirement account? Not many. Not with our 0% national savings rate! Most middle aged Americans don't even have that much saved for retirement.

In a return to traditional 20% downpayments 1st time homebuyers would be living in trailers. Time magazine's cover would feature some douche hugging a singlewide! Even people who already "own" a house often have no equity thanks to the housing ATM and bubble bust.

If banks want to keep lending, they can't require more than 10% downpayment, maybe less. I expect to see lots of weird downpayment amount requirements in the future once analysts and actuaries get a hold of reliable post-bubble buying pattern data. I think we'll see lots of 7% down programs, etc.

PONCH said...

Consider how much farging real estate is going to be available as the boomers retire and sell, retire and die, etc. Anyone who thinks housing is not in for an unprecedented dive...not just in the near term, but over the next 10+ years due to massive over-supply problems is insane. There is no way the U.S. will avoid a boomer-led depression unless we open the borders completely, not that I am advocating that. But the future for the U.S. is bleak, and there's not a damn thing the douche-bag fed or our corporate masters can do about it. I say buy now if you want to be a slave. Rent now if you want to be free. I could buy a house in most parts of the country in cash. Because I have been renting and saving like a maniac. But I am not going to. Until I'd be stupid not to. And that's a damn way off, especially out here in Los Angeles. The land of a million morans, nestled in the country of a billion morans. And all the dumb people are just soooo whiny and cranky. I can't wait to see the suffering, because this country has rotted to the core, and the only thing that can save it is a thorough cleanse. I wish Ron Paul was my grandfather.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

The best thing is that maybe Frank will eventually get over not being able to get into Axis/Radius. Or Anderson's Fifth Estate. Or the Salty Senorita. Or....you get the idea.

LOL ... have you ever actually been inside those places? Trust me, you won't "want to get in" if you did.

Plus they're all hurting so bad right now I'm sure they're begging people to get in.

Back in 2000 there were hour-long lines to get into those bars. Today it looks like a ghost town on Friday night.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

"Rents being so laughable cheap" is a pipe dream. Rents in nice neighborhoods like the one I live in have GONE UP. Still $1800-2000 / mo for a 2 bedroom in California

Huh? Here in OC rents are crashing. I don't know what county you're in but I'm not buying it. Have you even compared this year's asking rents vs. last year's?

While its not perfect, I can think of about 1000 worse places than Scottsdale.

Yep, like Tucson, Casa Grande, Gilbert, Chandler, Maryvale, Tempe, Mesa, Apache Junction, you get the idea.......

There are worse places than Scottsdale but coincidentally they all end with the letters AZ.

Anonymous said...

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

"Huh? Here in OC rents are crashing. I don't know what county you're in but I'm not buying it. Have you even compared this year's asking rents vs. last year's?"

Valencia Bridgeport. My 1 bedroom was $1500/mo in 06-07. Renewed it at $1600/mo recently. $1200 for a tiny studio. Look up www.screm.com if you want to see 2 bedroom condos going for $1800+ in my neighborhood. There's a new retail/office center across the street that's opening in the summer. Could be why.

edd said...

Nogalez/Tucson: "La eMe"
Scottsdale: "La Cosa Nostra"