January 31, 2008

There are two sides to the housing crash debate.

You have HP'ers and a slew of real economists who predicted the housing crash before it happened, and now it's happening. And we're also saying we have much, much farther to fall, and that this crash will go worldwide. It's the fundamentals stupid, and they're still WAY out of whack.

And then you have the clueless realtors, mortgage brokers, title agents and other REIC whose livelihoods depend on people NOT wising up, even though they probably know deep down that this whole thing was a giant Ponzi Scheme and mania, but don't want to admit it to others, or even themselves.

Well, here's a hilarious and kinda sad post from that side of the coin, thanks to an eagle-eyed HP'er. You just have to read the comments. You can literally smell the denial, and hatred for sites like HP who popped their precious bubble.

What's funny is that many view HP'ers as pessimists. Actually, we're optimists - we're optimistic that home prices are going to keep crashing, until they come back to reality. We're optimistic that hundreds of thousands of unethical realtors and mortgage brokers are going to go away. And we're optimistic that people are going to be smarter in the future with their money, and with who they trust with financial decisions.

I feel like I'm reading something out of a history book, describing the denial, the cluelessness and the complete lack of a financial education that helped cause the mania, and was still alive and well even as the mania collapsed.

As long as we pay closer attention to the media than we do our own common sense, we will not be at the bottom. The media preaches that we are not at the bottom and when we listen, we confirm that. We keep waiting, and that keeps the perpetuation of the downturn in motion.

We must understand that the moment we feel we are at the bottom, we will be. When investors think the best deals are now, they will be. However, when we listen to those who keep stating that we are not there yet and believe them, we will make them right.

And here's a few choice comments for your reading pleasure...

* It seems like I run into a consumer every day who truly believes the market will continue to plunge. Those same consumers are going to feel pretty silly when they realize the market has turned and they missed the boat!

* As always, you hit the nail on the head. It's a great time to buy, NOW!!!!

* “Smart People Are Buying Real Estate Now”. I love that saying


Anonymous said...

Well, can't see it now.



I get the gist though...thanks.

Tyrone said...

This one is not bad. Dissention in the ranks. LOL

Now is a great time to buy Real Estate! Or is it?
Is this request, from our Association, an attempt to manipulate the market? Is it less than truthful? Should we be telling folks "Now is a great time to buy real estate" when in fact, values are still declining? What if I told someone this and they bought based on, "Now is a great time to buy real estate" only to find out three years later, when they need to sell, that their property's value has declined?

Am I over thinking this? Should I just jump on the bandwagon and start running optimistic ads just so I can "put more money in my pocket"?

Why do I feel uncomfortable about this? What am I missing? Please help me out here.

blogger said...

thanks tyrone - i'll post

Martin Hristoforov said...

I saw Glengarry Glen Ross. It was made in 92 just around the time the last real estate wobble. I suggest you try it, its on youtube even :0

Tyrone, point is pretty simple. People know it is not a great time to buy. The very little being sold right now is to a)idiots that think are real smart b)idiots that have been already programmed and packaged so you don't really need more material for them.
Point is, I can hardly imagine making a sale without going into a morally hazardous grounds.

If you can tell the guy that you will make your 6% regardless of what happends to him. And that he will be in a pretty shitty spot if the price falls even 1% and that prices are currently falling with no certainty for the future and he bites then you are fine.

But on the other hand, if you are like me, you wouldn't do it. As you see I cannot get even 1$ from someone that I think will be sorry he met me later on. And truth be told there is a big chance current buyers are going to be sorriest asses around. All the gov help and shit comes for people that purchased up until last year not that it will do any good. Now, when you sell them and god forbid prices fall, they won't even get a shoulder slap for catching the knife. But that is just me, after all I knew this crappy scheme for years. All my friends and their friends did it. So much money, coke, cars and women. But wait you are an agent, you know how it was :)

In any event, never touched that shit. Worked and learned hard, made my money and spent them all, but they were real green paper. And besides I keep making them and keep spending them. I hardly even use a debit card. I guess some people learn the deal with a 1000$ credit card from WAMU and others with a million dollars house from WAMU. Difference is, I can make my money no matter what 'cause I've been doing it since I am 10 and I've been thru communism, depressions, hyperinflations, great times, good times, and boom times.
I can herd sheep(done it) just as easily as making myspace(worked on many things there.) Or grow corn(done it) or milk cows. Or cook, or run a Java Caffee... done it all. Point is you must become useful in world where Jose is not running after your ass wiping it 'cause Jose is going home... see, the countries with least credit will be on top :)

Your question truly sounds like should I sell crack on the street since a lot of other low lifers are doing it. Well, if selling crack is the only way to make moolah for your sorry ass then do it, but when I see you on the street you are just a low life crack dealer to me no matter how careful and moral you are when selling it.
And I challenge you to find a difference between crack and houses.
As far as I know, crack makes you feel all powerful, knowing, on the top of the game. Crackwhores love you. You steal a nice car. You must pay for the ever increasing addiction, day after day, month after month, possibly for life. Everything is fine until you end up with nothing downtown in a cardboard box.
Houses - same exact shit :) especially if you have children to feed every day.


Paul E. Math said...

Good analogy, Marty. The only difference between a realtor who tells you 'now is a great time to buy' and a crack dealer is that the realtor's product is legal.

For some reason, the values of our society are so out of whack that realtors are accepted members of our society. Not for long.

The mentality and the ethical standards of the realtor are exactly like that of the crack dealer. "Hey, someone is going to sell them this product that is utterly corrosive to their future, might as well be me".

Some people choose to do good things with their lives, like become a nurse or a teacher or a bus driver. Others choose to become crack dealers and realtors.

Anonymous said...

NAR New Slogan for 2008:

Buy HIGH, Sell LOW.

Lawrence Yun comments on New Slogan:
I would have never said that if I would have had thicker glasses I would have seen that...

Thank you. It's getting dark, Lawrence.

Anonymous said...

I am a licensed real estate agent. I have been wondering for quite a while what the hell the Nar, gtar, etc is for? I pay 36% to a brokerage/franchise that gives me more thorough learning opportunities than our local realtor board. Why do I have to pay them 600+ yearly? To the point at hand, I have been telling everyone I know, everyone that asks, do not buy now. If you need to sell (meaning you bought from at least 04 and on) do it fast and rent comfortably for the next year, year and a half, then call me and we'll snag you a nice foreclosure. The majority are brand new with bells & whistles. I'm not kissing anyone's butt here for business, I bought a year ago, new home at $88 sq.ft and I'm kind of nervous too but there is no way to sugarcoat this market but there are still people out there in denial, still investors taking that risk,I think it is addicting or something and I'm to "doom and gloom" for them. Agents that made bank the last four years, where the heck is all your money? You should be able to afford to ride things out for the next couple years. Take some time off, enroll in a course. Or suck it up, drop your 6%, take your 1-2% and work like the rest of us.

Anonymous said...

So we are at the bottom when everyone thinks we are at he bottom? I didn't realize that markets are not at all dependant on fundamentals, but are rather a mere function of mass psychology. Just imagine it, and it will come true.

Now put on your ruby slippers, click your heels, and repeat after me: "There's no place like a market bottom; there's no place like a market bottom . . ."

Anonymous said...

Renting is fine until the landlord walks away and you get served eviction papers even though you pay your rent on time. I've had several friends who have had this happen. It's really scary because it's a great way for the landlord to pocket the rent for a few months without you even knowing.

Anonymous said...

Anyone who thinks realestate is suddenly going to bounce back up is an idiot. Even when we do hit bottom it will go sideways for at least a year. DON'T BE FOOLED.