January 02, 2008

Gold at $850. Oil at $100. Any questions?


55 comments:

Anonymous said...

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duh
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Anonymous said...

...yes.

Anonymous said...

yeh, where is dopes when you need him?

Mark in San Diego said...

Action Action Action as our Arnold says here in Kaliforny. . .right out of the chute on first trading day of 2008 - Market Crash (yea!), oil at $100, and gold up up and away. . .National City slashes dividend and lays off nearly 1000 people in mortgage dept. . . .I think the slow pace of the crash will pick up speed - wait until Countrywide puts their 14,000 REO's on the market!

Anonymous said...

The big question for me is this. Will gold get sold off if stocks have a big fall or even a long slow decline?

Gold fell about 10% within a couple of days of the stock market correction that happened early in 2007. It fell from around $700 to $635 and then more..

Will it be different this time, because the worse the news gets, the more people think the Fed will cut rates and "pump liquidity"?

Also the dollar index is well below 80 now, and still falling.

Anonymous said...

I had a feeling the markets would go down as soon as people on Wall Street had gotten their xmas bonuses. But as I'm typing this it's starting to look like black Wednesday.

Marky Mark said...

Yeah - when is oil and gold going to be declared to be in a bubble?

Marky Mark

Anonymous said...

Just last week, at a basketball game, in a bank "box" for clients, a bank loan officer said the worse in my area isn't over (this wasn't news to me). He said things will get significantly worse by this spring, as developers/banks have been able to so far hold and wait on various properties, but they will be unable to do that much longer. He thought this spring would be a significant turning point. He said this spring banks would be forced to quit holding (working with developers) and begin to foreclose and sell (interpret dump) which will only continue to decrease the price of properties which have declined fairly significantly already. He said his own bank was in a good position, but believed that other banks may have to shut their doors. Although this is nothing "new" to us here, it is fairly significant to hear a bank loan officer say the same thing.

Anonymous said...

I'm still saying oil is in a bubble themselves. Can't have high oil prices when there is a recession going on.

Gold too.

LauraVella said...

Stock market down! All gold stocks are flying today. Here's an interesting article from Yahoo SIL message board.

Does anyone else see this as a green light for gold to rise in the future?



Bolivia's Congress raises mining taxes
Fri Nov 23, 2007 10:27pm EST

By Eduardo Garcia

LA PAZ, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Bolivia's Congress approved a reform to the mining tax code late on Friday that will substantially increase taxes on mining companies operating in the South American country.

Mining ministry spokesman Alfredo Zaconeta told Reuters the reform means mining companies will have to pay 37.5 percent of their income to the Bolivian state, up from 25 percent in the past.

The decision will affect several major global mining companies working in Bolivia, including U.S.-based Apex Silver Mines Ltd. (SIL.A: Quote, Profile, Research) and Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp. (CDM.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) (CDE.N: Quote, Profile, Research).

The tax reform also broadens the scope of the Complementary Mining Tax (CMT) -- which acts like a royalty -- to include minerals that currently do not pay the levy, like indium and wolfram.

Zaconeta said the royalty tax will be directly proportional to the price of the mineral in the international market.

Currently, it ranges from 1 percent to 10 percent.

The reform also aims to close a legal loophole that grants miners hefty discounts on income tax payments, Zaconeta said.

After taking office as the country's first president of indigenous descent in January 2006, leftist President Evo Morales drastically raised taxes on natural gas operations and nationalized reserves of the fuel.

He has repeatedly pledged to carry out similar reforms in the mining sector.
The tax hike and efforts to revitalize state-run mining company COMIBOL are at the heart of government plans to tighten the state's grip on Bolivia's vast reserves of tin, zinc, wolfram, lead, silver and gold. (Reporting by Eduardo Garcia; editing by Louise Heavens)


Sentiment : Strong Buy

LauraVella said...

Anon said:"The big question for me is this. Will gold get sold off if stocks have a big fall or even a long slow decline?"


This is the big question.

I orginally thought gold stocks would initially fall when the stock market crashes, but I may have been wrong!

I sold some of my gold stocks in antisipation of this, but who knows? Now I find this article, which to me signals that gold and other metals will go higher.

Is it just me?

Anonymous said...

Yeah - when is oil and gold going to be declared to be in a bubble?

Marky Mark


When our currency proves itself to be something other than toilet paper.

GT said...

hey bank box guy...what were you doing in that box?

Anonymous said...

The strong dollar policy has always meant this:

When it has lost all its value and its sole remaining use is wiping, the fiber has to be strong enough not to tear.

Anonymous said...

Nope!

No inflation here!

I mean gold is useless.

And who ever heard of oil being used for anything?

Superfizzle said...

Gold won't go down for quite some time. If we had an open market and the "invisible hand" could restore sanity to the markets, I would be worried about gold being overvalued. However, every time the market drops significantly, its a signal to the fed to inflate to correct. In Greenspans own words, "this is not an open market, it's a regulated market." The fed will continue to do this until the election. Of course, the more they inflate, the more oil and gold go up.

Based on Greenspans admission, lets rename the Federal Open Market Committee the Federal Manipulated Market Committee. And lets rename the "Federal Reserve" the "Private Bank Monopoly" since the Federal Reserve is not federal and it has no reserves (reserve of what in a fiat currency?)

Paul E. Math said...

A friend who thinks he knows business and economics passed me a Kiplinger newsletter a couple months ago (the guy is actually an economist with a large insurance company). I skimmed it and found myself disagreeing with so many of their predictions that I found the document useless and I told him so. My friend suggested I was ignorant and asked me for examples. Kiplinger was predicting $75 oil at year end so I told him that was way off, should be closer to $100. It's nice to be validated every once in awhile.

Strong Dollar Wiper said...

LOL @Anon 6:54

Marky Mark said...

BUBBLE OIL?

http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/27/markets/oil_speculation/index.htm

$100 oil and the 'S' word
Is it growing demand and tight supply, or merely rampant speculation that has pushed crude to record highs?

Marky Mark

Roccman said...

$860 -

good thing I sold my second home in July 05

bought gold in at $400

bought silver at $4.50

have been buying grains, ammo, and farmland for the last three years.

Hope ya'll enjoyed your vacation to the Pyramids...I would have loved to have gone to them before the great dieoff, buy like other useless shit most monkeys buy...I passed on the opportunity and bought gold and food.

Enjoy the die off!!!

oh and happy new year...

bwhahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahha!!!!!!!

Andrew from Russia said...

Canned beef is still at $2. Inflation doomsayers, this might be your last chance to stock up! In hard times, barter with useful items works better - standard-size vodka bottles were used as a hard currency (illegal tender?) in early 1990s Russia, sometimes changing many hands, while gold jewelry ended up in pawnshops.

borkafatty said...

Come here little Kitty...go chase this Ball of Yarn....Could this be the beginning of the great unwinding??

I am going to make POPCORN!!!!!!!

ben's butt boy said...

If the S&P closes below 1440 today, watch out below! The PPT of course will try its best this afternoon, but who knows?

Anonymous said...

shitferbrains must feel like a real asswipe by now.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

Where's DOPES when we need him?

I miss the "The market is up 2 points today, where's the crash?" posts day after day.

LOL

Anonymous said...

S&P August 2000: 1517.
S&P January 2008: 1444.

Net gain: ZERO. If fact, net loss. LOL.

If you own stocks that mirror the S&P, you have made ZERO. That is most of the commoners out there with 401k's. Before anyone blabs that they are up big, remember, I said the commoners out there who just put their money in weekly thinking they will someday retire. They won't.

Glad I have a pension and a gov't job. We print money for ourselves first.

Anonymous said...

Serious question for Keith and everyone else...

A triplex sold in '05 for $629K, now has been lowered gradually by the bank to $350K... monthly PITI and other expenses will be less than $3000, and monthly income will be $3700 with rents alone.

Is now a good time to buy, or do we stay away from real estate period???

Anonymous said...

Yeah - when is oil and gold going to be declared to be in a bubble?

Marky Mark


When our currency proves itself to be something other than toilet paper.


_____

Precisely.

Stuck in So Pa said...

Anonymous said...
..... He said his own bank was in a good position, but believed that other banks may have to shut their doors. Although this is nothing "new" to us here, it is fairly significant to hear a bank loan officer say the same thing.
============================
My cousin in the banking industry came up with his family for the New Year's weekend. I know that his VERY conservative bank has minimal exposure to the mortgage fiasco. I asked him if certain OTHER banks (we all know their names) were still up to their old tricks. He informs me that it's business as usual in "liar loan land" and if anything, the worst offenders are ramped up to the max and still pumping out toxic waste as fast and furiously as they can.

This is the kind of crap that will drag this out for years!

consultant said...

How is it that everything on my watch list is crashing, except Countrywide stock?

It's holding pretty steady at $9.

Does Orangezilla control my stock widget?

Anonymous said...

Yeah - when is oil and gold going to be declared to be in a bubble?


They're not in a bubble. The US$ is falling, which makes it look like commodities prices are going up. The same is happening with corn, wheat, soybeans, silver etc etc. People don't want to trade commodities for worthless paper.

The difference between commodities prices and RE prices is that RE requires lots of credit in order to maintain asset values. Most people don't buy commodities leverages at 90% or more. That's why a credit crunch will hurt auto, electronics, and home sales and not food or energy prices as much.

peculiartreasure said...

Began acquiring gold at $280. Never trusted in stocks, bonds, 401K's, savings accounts, or anything else. Now my decision is really paying off, just as I knew it would. Strong feeling that gold will continue to go thru the stratosphere as geopolitical & economic issues really start heating up. Understanding biblical prophecy is what helps me make my decisions. DIRE PREDICTION: America will not recover from what is taking place!! (At least not in this lifetime)

Anonymous said...

Now gold and oil has become the next bubble. What next the new Touch Screen IPODS.

fish said...

Hey Roccman, when did you stop going by the name Richard?

Anonymous said...

Gold in 1980: $850

Gold in 2008: $850

WOW what a performance.

Anonymous said...

DOW JONES 1980: 800

DOW JONES 2008: 13,XXX

compare that to gold

next subject please

Anonymous said...

anon @9:12pm

Yes because I'm sure there are so many people who put all their money into the S&P 500 in 2000, and none before and none afterwards.

Do you also laugh at all the people with gold, since clearly they bought all their gold in 1980, right? Probably on January 21...

Andrew Hac said...

Yes, the question is:

When will this nation go bankruptcy ?

When will the average Americano stop spending over their head ?

When will the Americano stop invading other nations like Iraq, Vietnam, etc... ?

When will the illegal immigrant stop coming over the border ?

Cheer 2008's. This is freaking great new and optimism for the Americano which invest in real estate and carrying CC debts. Fantastic news !

can i get a side of bacon too said...

Yup. The tin-foil GOPer's are starting to wake-up.

9/11, Saddam, Enron, Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, no-oath investigations, FAA, NBC, FOX, FDIC, massive job loss, bankruptsies, wall street, foreclosures, banks in panic, PNAC, REALTOR™, support the troops, etc, etc, etc.

Budvar said...

No inflation here!

I mean gold is useless.

And who ever heard of oil being used for anything?



Too right Squire, what use is it?
You can't live in it, eat it or even wipe your arse with it!!

Anonymous said...


If you own stocks that mirror the S&P, you have made ZERO. That is most of the commoners out there with 401k's. Before anyone blabs that they are up big, remember, I said the commoners out there who just put their money in weekly thinking they will someday retire. They won't.


You haven't even factored in inflation. The S&P is actually down about 35% in real terms over the past 8 years. My 401K is entirely in internationals and I am up by a pretty good amount. I finished college in 2000 and didn't even contribute to my 401K until 2003 because the market was crashing. Most 401k plans don't even give the choice of international funds.

Budvar said...

Andrew from Russia said...

standard-size vodka bottles were used as a hard currency (illegal tender?) in early 1990s Russia, sometimes changing many hands, while gold jewelry ended up in pawnshops.


This from a nation who lost more troops through drinking anti-freeze and brake fluid out their trucks than were killed by the taliban in 80s Afghanistan!!

So why does your post not surprise me?

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

A triplex sold in '05 for $629K, now has been lowered gradually by the bank to $350K... monthly PITI and other expenses will be less than $3000, and monthly income will be $3700 with rents alone.

Is now a good time to buy, or do we stay away from real estate period???


Depends on the market rent, which could vary from $300/month in inner Detroit to $30,000 in the Upper East Side of Manhattan.

Just like any other investment - add up the rents, subtract mortgage/PITI, maintenance costs, legal, etc., and if the number is positive, it's a good buy, if the number is negative, it's a bad deal.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
I'm still saying oil is in a bubble themselves. Can't have high oil prices when there is a recession going on.

Gold too.

January 02, 2008 6:28 PM

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Ever heard of the 1970s?

Anonymous said...

"...When will the illegal immigrant stop coming over the border ?..."

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Once the US is just as F'd up as Mexico, they will stop. There'll be no reason to come.

Anonymous said...

wall street got its big holiday bonuses after making fees passing toxic mortgage risk to others. time to let it drop like a rock.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
"...When will the illegal immigrant stop coming over the border ?..."

-------------------

Once the US is just as F'd up as Mexico, they will stop. There'll be no reason to come.

Right Now. They are even leaving California....

Sick and Dying America

Anonymous said...

Serious question for Keith and everyone else...

A triplex sold in '05 for $629K, now has been lowered gradually by the bank to $350K... monthly PITI and other expenses will be less than $3000, and monthly income will be $3700 with rents alone.

Is now a good time to buy, or do we stay away from real estate period???
==============================

THE ANSWER is dependent on the net cummulative rental income factoring in projected local economic variables into the formula.

For all you laymen, this means that you have to consider the possibility that rental income may crash so that 2 years from now that property may only rent for $1300. Putting you in the hole.

If you want to GAMBLE, buy the property.

If you want to play it safe, BUY PHYSICAL GOLD!

Anonymous said...

AH,

ANOTHER FINE OPENING DAY !

PLAY BALL !

POPCORN, HERE !

Anonymous said...

DOW JONES 1980: 800

DOW JONES 2008: 13,XXX

compare that to gold

next subject please
----------------------

So in 1980 the ratio of gold to the DOW was about 1 to 1.

Think about it.

Before this is all over Americans will know the difference between money and credit/debt.

As J.P. Morgan said, "gold is money, nothing else."

devestment said...

I think this is a buy signal for dollars.

No one wants dollars so they are being scared out of some pretty strong hands right now.

The mere public perception that we are recession bound is enough to considerably tighten consumer spending not to mention the markets physical problems.

When I look back to the 1980 cycle it looks to me like a reply.

Credit bubble followed by inflation and high interest with gold toping 800 then collapsing quickly to $600, and then $300 in 1982.

In order for me to not want dollars I have to believe the statements...

“America failed”, “politicians went broke”, “government walked away”.

Same as it ever was. The rich get richer.

happy homeowner in the stix said...

A triplex sold in '05 for $629K, now has been lowered gradually by the bank to $350K... monthly PITI and other expenses will be less than $3000, and monthly income will be $3700 with rents alone.

Is now a good time to buy, or do we stay away from real estate period???


Forget about what it sold for way back when. It's interesting historical data, nothing more. It doesn't mean that's the "true value" of the triplexes, nor that you can expect to someday get that much for them if you sell them in the future. You need to know how you can make it work for you now.

Take into consideration the local economy. What kind of employers are there, what kind of wages do they pay, and are their industries doing well? Are businesses tending to move into or out of the area?

How much rental competition are you facing, BTW? If there are more rentals coming on because people can't sell their homes, your rent could tend to trend downwards. If they are tightening up, that's good for you since you may be able to charge more rent.

What's the potential upkeep on your part? Do the units need extensive renovation to compete with other rentals? New roofs? Water heaters? Will any upgrades allow you to charge higher rent, and how long will it take for them to pay for themselves?

Do you want to deal with the headaches of being a landlord? What if a unit or two is vacant for a while? How long can you carry it until you get a new, paying tenant? How are you going to weed out the good ones from the FB's likely to trash the joint?

Do landlord/tenant laws in your area tend to favor the landlord or the tenant? If you have to toss a nightmare tenant to the curb, how long would it take under your locality's eviction proceedings?

Yeah, I know, lots of questions. But you are looking at plunking down a sizable chunk of change to invest in this, and you should be asking these questions and others before you sign on for it.

Anyone who tells you "it's just another investment" is blowing smoke up your ass. Owning real estate is not just sitting on your butt waiting for the money to roll in like you can do if you own stocks, bonds or CD's.

Whatever you decide....good luck to you!

Anonymous said...

Stuck in So PA said:"He informs me that it's business as usual in "liar loan land" and if anything, the worst offenders are ramped up to the max and still pumping out toxic waste as fast and furiously as they can."



Since August, don't banks have to keep their mortgage loans?

offended said...

Ben Bernanke hates ME??

WTF is HIS problem??

I didn't do a damn thing to that banker bitch!

Hell, I don't even KNOW the little puppet bastard...

Anonymous said...

"So in 1980 the ratio of gold to the DOW was about 1 to 1."

Man, now you are stealing Peter Shiff's thunder. Gotta buy the book!