December 19, 2007

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day


Where do you live?

How far (%) from the peak do you think your local housing market has fallen so far?

How far do you think it'll fall from peak to trough?


88 comments:

pennywise said...

Bakersfield, CA

Right now, its impossible to say, because sales have come to a dead halt. Marketing times are over 12 months. There simply are no comps from which to draw an accurate value. Zillow.com estimates and median listing prices (from MLS) appear to be about 10-15% down.

Word on the street is that most homedebtors have long since reached the "panic" phase, but the bank trustees, who are negotiating the thousands of short sales, are still stuck in "denial."

Metroplexual said...

I live around Morris County in norther NJ.

It has fallen very little because of the proximity to NYC. But as all these writedowns have their effect this year and probably next I anticipate a 40% haircut at least. It will take a few years though.

Anonymous said...

south central texas. prices holding somewhat. action has slowed. stay tuned. what is happening elsewhere will come to texas. i have no doubt.

Texan said...

I live in the well-populated strip of SE Texas (from Austin to San Antonio).

Around here, prices are actually still going up -- apparently our cost of living (and land values) started out so low, that people from other states are still taking advantage of moving here, which is driving prices up. There's a lot of growth in Texas right now.

The slowdowns I read about happening everywhere else are not happening as much here. I don't see many homes for sale, no foreclosures, etc. Of course that will change eventually.

Anonymous said...

That's just beautiful, First we had 'marked to market' a'la Enron and now we have 'peak to trough' courtesy of George W. Bush, Cheney and Greenspan.

What a wonderful country this USA. Makes me want to find a real combat veteran (not a 20 years in desk bound pussy) and ask him what it was like risking his life for crooked corrupt politicians, mortgage and welfare frauds, illegal alien invasion and an utterly corrupt executive branch.

My final question I would respectfully ask the Vet would be 'would you defend this country again with your life?'

I know I would not.

Sick and Dying USA

only goes up...... said...

I am in North Coastal San Diego. IMO, it will drop 40% from peak. These prices can in no way be sustained.

Anonymous said...

NoVa (Northern Va/DC area) is REALLY tankin' the burbs'

I don't know the percentages,but the farther from DC you are, the cheaper it gets.

Many near or in DC think it "won't crash here...

But if you ask any old timers that have been through previous RE crashes here, they'll tell ya it "works it's way into D.C. as well".

Sorry inner belway guys, you get kicked in the teeth too!

Glad I sold last year ;)
I'll wait this one out !!

Anonymous said...

Here in Honolulu, sales are down 60% from peak, but prices haven't budged much. It's like they think it's different here. Maybe more like Wiley Coyote running in mid air.

I hoping prices will crash here, but maybe it is different here. According to housing-watch.com, inventory here hasn't increased any since last year.

http://housing-watch.com/regionview.aspx?city=Honolulu

Anonymous said...

Columbus, OH.

Homes still selling, albeit slowly. LOTS of inventory sitting for months and months. Sellers still in denial stage ie. no huge price drops.

I *did* buy a house a few months ago for about $60k less than the prior owner paid 3 years ago (seller was desperate to leave).

For me, paying a mortgage is SO much cheaper than renting, thanks to a substantial downpayment.

On the northeast side of Columbus - New Albany - there's a 5+ year supply of multi-million dollar mansions. But a few of those are selling each month (as others come online). Those sold can be attributed to the wholly outrageous salaries being paid by Limited Brands Corp. Wake up Mr. Wexner (Limited founder) - you're GROSSLY overpaying your execs!

Anonymous said...

In Northeast PA here, right on the edge of the Poconos. In places like Monroe county, I expect prices to fall even further...2500 sq foot homes on less than an acre were going for 350K a year and a half ago, and now can be found for less than 200K, especially in pockets of developments that have a criminal element. Forclosures are rampant there as well.

In Pike county, prices on existing homes are still up over 40% since 2004 and are selling, though slowly. I'd say average DOM for something priced reasonably is 100+, with some listings sitting for 600+ if the price is out of control and firesales moving the same day. The proximity to NYC is helping, as people are selling there and on LI and SI and moving here. Or, they WERE...when their homes were actually selling for more than they owed. I've heard from many new arrivals that they have moved into their vacation places here and are letting their homes in LI sit empty until they either sell or are foreclosed on. Pike could see a further drop of 10-20% easily, especially with the dissapearance of easy funding.

In Wayne county, where I am, things are still rather rural and things really never hit a huge peak, but are up overall around 40%. A mix here...million dollar lake homes and 100K in town places...I think a fall of 20% would be reasonable to expect, and the inventory is actually lower than I've seen in a year. The resets will tell, though.

Our home sold in October for 145 K, and we bought it for $85K in 2005. The buyers had zero down, and a piggyback loan. And I doubt they could get what they paid at this point without putting another 30K into the place.

Things were so cheap here pre-2000 that I'm not sure they'll ever be the same...the home that we just sold would have been around 40K at that point. Hence my bubble sitting...happily renting to wait it out.

Anonymous said...

I live in the San Francisco Bay Area.

The price to rent ratio here is at historically ridiculous levels. It costs almost double to buy than to rent an equivalent property.

That being said, I am anticipating a price drop of between 30-50%. Since the adjustment time will likely be between 5-7 years, rents will likely rise during that time frame and at some point, rents and mortgage values will align again.

It's hard to say for sure. People here are so leveraged it is almost baffling to me. I am not a native Californian so I guess this concept is somewhat foreign to me. But they certainly seem to be married to the idea that housing here is the end all, be all of investment classes.

The big wild card is the recession. If job losses start to mount here (which is likely), that could accelerate the downturn. I know familes in this area where both spouses are high income earners, yet would be unable to support their current mortgage obligations if one of the bread winners lost his/her job.

Anonymous said...

PHoenix

Up 50% since last year

It'll go up another 100% this year

-Greg Swann

Anonymous said...

Very little here in northern NJ. I would say a 5%-10%. But nothing you can notice. People are still denial here and when houses go up for sale, they are still in 2005 price mode.

MrBill said...

Let's see, I paid $110,000 for my house in Rhode ISland in 1997. At the time, the median in my city was $108,000. The median in my city peaked at about $270,000 and has since fall to about $255,000

I doubt I could get more than $240,000 right now for my house so that's about a 10% drop already from the peak.

Looking at craigslist, I could rent a house like mine for about $1400 per month. So, if someone paid $200,000 for my house, made a 20% downpayment and took a 30 year load for the remaining $160,000 then the principle, interest, taxes, and insurance would add up to about $1400 per month.

So clearly there is some downside left.

Anonymous said...

Live in Phoenix. The local paper says prices on homes sold are down about 10%. But, if you go to Phoenix flippers in trouble website the avg drop in list price of still unsold homes is about 35% below what home last sold for. I agree with low sales and few comps to go by, any appraisal value set by a realtor is basically pulling a number out of their behind.

KeepAustinWeird said...

Austin, TX

As expected, we're about 6 months behind any national curves, so nothing drastic happening here. But the atmosphere has noticeably changed in the past quarter.

People are openly talking about a 'crash' and 'condo glut', when 6 months ago it was all about 'flipping this and that', and 'tearing down this old house down for a brand new McMansion'

Sales volume has noticeably dropped...houses are idling in the market. I'm starting to see lots more 'NEW PRICE' signs added to the For Sale signs.

With all that said, I am confident that Austin will experience a crash. I'm looking for a 40% aircut within 6-12 months.

We have simply over-appreciated our assets. Austin is a government town...we're state workers making 50k a year. There's not a single house in the metro-area that is affordable on a state salary using a traditional loan. That's all you have to understand to realize that a correction is a coming. Exotic loans are history...regression to the mean!!!

Ed said...

Atlanta

Down 5% now

Another 10% to 15% to go. Not much of a price runup here, but foreclosures out of control and lots of overbuilding.

California is Burning said...

Sold home in Riverside California back in 2006 for 440,00o. Recently saw a listing for a similar home in the old neighborhood for 275,000. Burn Baby Burn.... All the coworkers and neighbors thougt I was a fool for selling. Guess I get the last laugh, F*ckers.

Ed said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
David said...

wASHINGTON, dc area

Outer suburbs off about 15 - 25% from peak (nominal dollars)
Inner suburbs off about 5 - 15% from peak (nominal dollars).

Mid Hudson Valley NY said...

Mid Hudson Valley NY.

Inventory has steadied; prices have not really dropped yet
Housing prices in this area went up apporx. 300% between 2000 and now.
I predict it will ultimately revert back to approx 2001 prices, so at least a 50% haircut here coming in the near future.

Anonymous said...

I live in Southern CA. Prices are probably down 15%. However prices trippled here in the last 5 years, so 15% means nothing. I expected a further drop of 50% just to get things back to sanity. Now I am not so sure, it seems everyday I read about some new Government plan to protect home investors from free market losses.

All of us who saved and waited for drop to realistic prices before we bought our American Dream may be screwed by our Government. Yes the free market would eventually have taken over and prices would go into freefall, but not if the governemtn keeps trying to stop it.

Anonymous said...

Metro DC/NoVA:

~15% to date.

I'd say we've got another 15% from peak to go & that will occur over the next 18 months.

Basically THs that went for 500k+ will need to be in the mid to upper 300's before they are in line w/ fundamentals (monthly rent x130).

%'s stated are not in real terms inflation may tack on another 10% over the 3-4 year time horizon for the deflation of housing assets when compared to rent inflation.

Anonymous said...

In a rural area, It is impossible to tell how far prices have fallen as there are no buyers.

In a small town near us there are multiple 50+ unit new condo developments that have been for sale for almost 2 years now. They have not sold even 1 unit. All lights are out there now when we drive by. In spite of the developers offering free cars and all kinds of incentives.. zero sales.

Auctions and contract for deeds aren't doing any better. Going back to the banks in the ones I have heard about.

PasadenaRenter said...

Pasadena, CA

Prices are probably just under 2004 prices. It's hard to know, since hardly anything is selling that is in a "normal" price range; i.e. not insanely expensive and huge.

Asking prices have dropped off dramatically, by at least 30%, but that's just more a reflection of the insane asking prices of the last few years.

Jeff - Charlottesville VA said...

We took profits on our house in Northern VA (Prince William Co.) in Dec. 2003 and bought a depressed home in Charlottesville which we sold (managed to squirrel out of) in Dec. 2006 at a nice profit. We have rented ever since but follow both the northern and central VA markets carefully. In NOVA outside the beltway is brutal with Fairfax, Loudon and Prince William counties all down between 30% and 50%...some homes are even selling for 60% below their last sale (usually in early 2006). Inside the beltway (Alexandria & Arlington counties as well as DC itself) held up somewhat better in 2006 and into 2007 but the roof started to cave in about six months ago and now even those areas are dropping fast. Foreclosures are skyrocketing. As I said, we are now renting in Charlottesville (central Va) and prices here are down only about 10% to 15% from 2006 highs...however inventories of homes for sale (and for rent) are up over 300% from two years ago...so we expect prices to follow NOVA down (just as they followed them up from 2000 until 2006). We prefer the lower key lifestyle of Charlottesville so, becasue we won't be moving, it is likely we will have to wait several years before considering venturing back into owning real estate. The house we rent now sold for $815,000 in 2006...we are renting it for $2000 per month...I am confident the owner could not get $600k right now if he tried to sell.

Lady DI said...

South Orange County, California.

Home values have fallen about 15% so far. I expect it to drop at least another 25% or more.

Sellers here are in MAJOR DENIAL, so it is going to take a while to bottom out.

Rob Dawg said...

Ventura County. Down 9.3% reported, 15% in practice. Another 20% over 18 months to 2 years left in the mix.

Anonymous said...

What a wonderful country this USA. Makes me want to find a real combat veteran (not a 20 years in desk bound pussy) and ask him what it was like risking his life for crooked corrupt politicians, mortgage and welfare frauds, illegal alien invasion and an utterly corrupt executive branch.

My final question I would respectfully ask the Vet would be 'would you defend this country again with your life?'
-------------------
Yes, very true. Here we are, the United States, at this very minute being invaded by a foreign country, Mexico, and yet our soldiers are half a world away in Iraq. WTF!

HAS THIS EVER HAPPENED IN HISTORY?

THINK ABOUT IT, A COUNTRY IS INVADED, IGNORES THE INVADING COUNTRY, AND GOES AHEAD AND INVADES ANOTHER COUNTRY ALTOGETHER!

HOLY SH$T! WHY ANYONE WOULD EVERY JOIN THE MILITARY IS BEYOND ME!

Anonymous said...

ALBUQUERQUE, NM THIS THING REMINDS ME OF BEING ON THE SUBWAY STUCK AGAINST THE DOOR , WHEN IT OPENS THE CROWD IS GOING TO RUN YOU OVER ...PRICE WILL FALL..40 TO 50 %

westwest888 said...

SO MUCH RESPECT for Robert Shiller. An article from 3 whole years ago:

http://tinyurl.com/6rglf

The difference between Mr. Shiller and the people who only see the upside is that they will be bankrupt when this thing shakes out.

William said...

Woodbridge, Va (NoVa)

I bought in Woodbrdige for 265,000 in a pretty nice area with easy access to public transit, 95, and route 1. The same style of townhome was going for about 330000 in 2005/2006.

I also had them throw in about 5% in closing, as well as some free upgrades. My guess would be that the true sale price of my home versus what it would have sold for in 2005-2006 was about 25% discounted.

And yes, I have a low interest fixed loan, made a downpayment, and plan on being here for 7-10 years.

Anonymous said...

Minneapolis -- In nominal terms we're down about 15% in the city -- well the nice part and near rings burbs anyway (10% and you have a chance, 15% pretty good chance, 20% is a mark to move).

Condos are doing a little worse (15, 20, 25). And new construction, especially townhouses, in the outer ring suburbs are just getting slaughtered (25, 30, 35).

We're probably about halfway to the bottom in percentage terms, more than half in dollar terms.

If we tip into serious recession, all bets are off.

Given what's likely coming, I'll be lucky if I can sell my house in 2010 for what it sold for in 1997 (35% of the current assessed value).

borkafatty said...

I would say we are not even close...i just went through all the foreclosures in my city...one by one...and every single one of them had some sort of ARM with 80/20's and just some fucked up mortgages that are unreal for people to put their signature on. Oh and a lot of these failed prior to the rest date...So I did a little more research and the amount of resets coming in 08 is astronomical...to say the least.....oh the fun is still just beginning.

Austonian said...

Cool to see so many fellow Austinites/Central Texan HP'ers here.

Yep, we're behind the curve, but not much. Reminds me of '86, right before the 27% haircut of '88-92--like a plane that has just stalled out.

A few ridiculous projects are still breaking ground down here, but I too can smell the desperation from the REIC--bigger and more colorful signs, and my apartment mailbox and front door have been inundated with "great time to buy" flyers.

I used to think 20% haircut by 2010, but now I'm more inclined to agree with KeepAustinWeird--especially in overvalued areas like 78704 and anything close-in or in the hills. (You can clearly see a 40%+ bubble on the Zillow graphs since about 2005.)

As one of those $50k-ish state employees, I sure as heck hope you're right.

Anonymous said...

I live in San Diego, and it's pretty bleak here, but prices were so completely out of control that I'm sure there is a LONG way yet to fall.

6%? Put the pipe down man said...

NC

Down 10%- 15% now

Another 10%+ to go. Big run up here cause by the Northern influx of 2000 - 2006. Foreclosures out of control here also and lots of overbuilding but no buyers in sight. I live in a fairly new subdivision started in 2000 and built out in 2004.It was the hottest in town...builders could not get them up fast enough. Homes in here would sell in a month at the peak but this year several have sat on the market w/ no takers. Realtors are taking jobs at the local Bojangles & Burger King. If they can't sell'em in Jersey ...they can't buy'em in the Carolina's.

Anonymous said...

Chicago Suburbs.

Not looking to buy so I didn't really look at previous postings and can compare.

I do know that the three buildings by work selling 250+k condos (in the suburbs, wtf?) have been at less than 50% occupancy for 2 years.

I've also been seeing advertising in the local papers with listings that acctualy have the price... most in the 160-200k range (at peak most listings didnt print prices, and id say the ones that did were 300-350k), but these are for obviously different houses.

More anectodal evidence, I work with a newly-wed couple. When they were planning to get married they were looking at condos and houses, and said that it was impossible to get a hold of realtors for information. Now they say every time they go to an open house they get at least five cold calls from 5 different realtors within a day.

Anonymous said...

In Utah -

1% in people's minds.

20% from the peak in real terms.

Anonymous said...

"I live in Southern CA. Prices are probably down 15%. However prices trippled here in the last 5 years, so 15% means nothing."

It means a lot. It means I'm "ef'd" if I'm a FB.

Anonymous said...

Glendale Arizona Arrowhead Area

I purchased this property in 1984 for 206K.

3250 sq ft, gated, one acre.

Homes at the peak in this neighborhood were going for 1.25Million.

Now they are going for 950K

I really dont care though, because my property is paid off in full.

Let it drop another 50%, I'm still way ahead.

Anonymous said...

I live in a rural area. Even the largest "big" city has been in the paper as "undervalued" on lists of cities around the country.

So, in 20 years, if my house has doubled in value, it'll be a miracle. I'd say realistically, maybe up 70% and probably due to drop another 20%. If you don't rise, it's hard to fall !

But, at the end of the day, it's still just my home. Not a nest egg.

Anonymous said...

My house (I rent for $2,300 per month) is a 2br 1ba 972sf slab house in west los angeles. It's Zillow value has barely budged from $725k or so during this whole time period. Similar houses in my neighborhood are still trading for 800k-900k (they're slightly bigger - 1200 sf or so). If I bought my house, it would cost me more than twice what I pay in rent for DTI and maintenance. No crash in sight here.

Andrew from Russia said...

Dollar depreciation would skew the figures for Moscow but it could be as much as 15 ... 20% off the 2006 peak.

The portentous "For Sale" signs are becoming more frequent. Otherwise it's still calm (at $4000 per square meter), "real estate always goes up", and even the equity withdrawal idea is seriously considered as if the US bubble did not exist!

Anonymous said...

Chicago, IL

1. I live in a good area with top rated schools and low taxes. The neighborhood consists of 1950'3 brick ranches and six Mc Mansions. We have four empty Mc Mansions and two empty ranches out of 100 houses. I walk my dogs twice a day and have seen no prospective buyer traffic to these homes.

2. I just talked to a friend who works at an animal shelter. They are getting at least five calls a day asking if the shelter could take their animals because they have lost their homes.

Anonymous said...

Location: Suburbs outside Tampa, FL

Decline from peak: Based on selling prices of homes in my neighborhood, about 30% below the peak (Dec. 2005).

Bottom: Again, taking selling prices in my neighborhood from June 2000 and allowing for a traditional rate of return, I'm predicting 40% below the peak, sometime next year.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

In my specific community in Newport Beach, the houses (which are all identical McMansions) sold for $1.2 - $1.3M at the peak. In the past year, the few sales that have taken place have been in the $700-800k range.

That is a SERIOUS drop.

It will fall even further, because now there are a ton of houses that have been listed in the $700-800k range for months and are not selling.

More and more have "for rent" signs on them, meaning rents are dropping, meaning I'll be asking for a drop in my rent if I'm going to renew my lease in March.

OC Register reports that Newport Beach is the *least* affected of all Orange County communities, so I can imagine how bad it's gotten in other areas.

Anonymous said...

Philadelphia: The suburbs are still insane in their pricing. Even ghetto suburbs like Croydon expect 180K for a wooden shack that has not been updated since they were built in 1940.
As you know, Philly is the land of Row Homes. A lot of New York investors came down in the pervious three years and ruined the NE section of the city. Prices rose from an average of 60K in 2003 to 140K in 2005. Now they sell for about 125K to 115K but there are still some NY idiots out there that are paying 180K or more for 60 year old junk and believing they are getting a deal.(usually of foreign extraction, russians, asians, etc.)
The one telling factor right now is that stagnant sales are everywhere. Many are giving up and taking their signs down. The lack of buyers has greatly reduced the amount of housing for sale here in the NE section.
On a good note, the younger purchasers tend to fix up their properties but lack basic skills such as lawn cutting, and tend to be careless with their trash and don't pay any attention to the needs of their children. They are too busy working trying to pay their astronomical mortgages for row house living. Still very overpriced, but the suburbs are MUCH worse with regard to out of control prices versus what you are getting for your dollar. Average suburb cost is 250K for a small single, usually in bad shape with less than 1/4 acre of ground. Many of them were built with pipes laid in floor concrete, heating elements that are encased in concrete and are now so expensive to maintain that they need complete replacement. Taxes are VERY high in Montgomery and Bucks counties and most older couples CANNOT RETIRE because the taxes are near 600-800 per month in some cases. New Jersey is even worse. Get this.... Luxury over 55 community in CAMDEN county, NJ. Cost to get in 279,000 for 1 bedroom minimum, PLUS 275 a month community fee PLUS 7,719 dollars per year to pay in PROPERTY TAX. Wow! What a deal for retirement!
New Jersey is the Land of OZ when it comes to fantasy versus reality.

scottsdalewatch said...

Anonymous said:

Glendale Arizona Arrowhead Area

I purchased this property in 1984 for 206K.

3250 sq ft, gated, one acre.

Homes at the peak in this neighborhood were going for 1.25Million.

Now they are going for 950K

I really dont care though, because my property is paid off in full.
----------------------------------

Are you sure, you not some 30K per year Scottsdale millionaire, because your full-of-yourself post reads like one.
Still, the west side of Phoenix,(west of I-17), metro is a dump, populated by illegals, mediocrities and losers.

Anonymous said...


HAS THIS EVER HAPPENED IN HISTORY?

THINK ABOUT IT, A COUNTRY IS INVADED, IGNORES THE INVADING COUNTRY, AND GOES AHEAD AND INVADES ANOTHER COUNTRY ALTOGETHER!


The Roman Empire. While Rome was being sacked by the barbarians, many Roman armies were off in the Middle East or Gaul. there was also lots of corruption, bickering, materialism, greed and people were no longer proud of being Romans. They imported a slave class to do jobs that Romans didn't want to do. Of course we all know something like that could never happen to the United States because we are the center of the universe.

rent in florida said...

In Sarasota Florida, according to stats from Fla Assoc Realtors
peak median was $353,500.00 in January 2006.

As of last report, October 2007 median is $263,900.00

That would be around 28% drop from peak to current.

source http://media.living.net/statistics/statisticsfull.htm

Anonymous said...

Anonymous Anonymous said...

PHoenix

Up 50% since last year

It'll go up another 100% this year

-Greg Swann

December 19, 2007 4:26 PM<<<<

muhahahahahahaha!!!!

Edgar said...

Central Oklahoma, we've got houses simultaneously coming out all of our orifices around heya.

But its different in Seattle said...

Seattle has officially retracted to 2006 prices as of November, prices peaked in the summertime so the correction is now in full effect, but it still has at least 20% more to fall before prices come inline with the local economy and salaries.

Anyone remember how all the realtors earlier this year were claiming that prices in Seattle would continue to rise and that it was different in Seattle?
There is currently thousands of new condo units currently under construction here and coming online in the next 18 months. Many were bought pre-construction by out of state housing gamblers who are now starting to panic and prices continue to creep lower.

eric in vegas said...

Las Vegas

We're about 20-25% down from peak prices. I can't see anything less than 50% off for the best areas of town, 60% for the decent areas, and 75% for the crappy areas (all of North Las Vegas).

Anonymous said...

Renting just west of Cleveland. The richer suburbs Brecksville, Chagrin Falls, Westlake, Hudson seem to be holding OK. NAFTA has destroyed NE Ohio's economy. City of Cleveland is toast, it is Detroit 2.0 on a smaller scale. I drove through ZIP 44105 (Slavic Village, the alleged foreclosure capital of America and the subject of recent BBC stories) last weekend and the decay of this once proud neighborhood founded by Eastern European immigrants who worked in the steel mills that built this country is beyond words. About the only thing Cleveland has going for it is that the economy is so bad that it hasn't been overrun with illegal mexcrement like FL, AZ, CA.

Anonymous said...

It's pretty flat in the Dallas area. It's been flat since 2003. My sister bought a house for $175K in 1999 and sold it for $201K in 2005. The gains adjusted for inflation is about 0%. The homes are cheap, but the property taxes are around 3.25% in most areas. Lots of Clownifornia idiots moving here and overpaying for new houses though. Houses that normally cost $200K are being bought for $400K by the carpetbagging fools. I guess they think it's cheap. Wait until they get the tax bill for $13,000/yr for a stucco box that will be falling apart in 5 years. I pay $9,600/yr for a nice 1150sf 2/2 condo with an office and no maintenance costs or property taxes. Who's throwing their money away?

Anonymous said...

cleveland

15-25%

Anonymous said...

NY we are at a FULL STOP!

I think we just hit a iceberg

Anonymous said...

"Let it drop another 50%, I'm still way ahead."

So what's your plan if it drops more than that? You may be O.K. but it would be grand of you to get yourself a riding mower and mow all of your former neighbors lawns... errr...rock gardens.

Anonymous said...

Las Cruces, NM.

2,500 sqft. house listed for $400k.
Price reduced to $360k. No takers.
Now offered for rent at $1,400.

There is your problem right there, Mr. Homeseller.

Looks to me like that house is worth about $250k.

Ron said...

Huntington Beach,

Just holding out it seems, last remnants of knife catcher getting "deals" which are a joke and at least 30% over valued. But we will see what happens, I fully expect the house I saw for 350k 6 years back will return to those areas. Don't believe me, just watch.

Anonymous said...

Santa Fe, NM

In our development, the only things that are moving are priced in the $125 - $150/square foot range. There are plenty of homes that are still priced higher than that but they are just sitting there. I sold my house last December at $197/square foot, so that indicates to me that we are currently down 25 - 35% in a year.

There are several new housing developments around town and they are ghosttowns. Many are Centex homes, but there are a few smaller developments that are being built by smaller builders. There is NOTHING happening in these developments.

There's one small development that I drive by every day where the model homes have been open for almost a year AND NO OTHER HOMES HAVE BEEN BUILT YET!

We have over a 12 month supply of homes for sale as well and a record number of homes for rent.

Apparently Santa Fe isn't so different after all.

CRASH!

Jymkata

Potential Buyer said...

San Jose, CA.

East side falling like a rock with many foreclosures, surrounding (affluent) towns like Los Gatos, Palo Alto, not coming down at all that I can see.
I believe it will be a long wait for the Bay Area, but down it WILL come eventually.

Anonymous said...

West Palm Beach, FL

I am predicting 2001 Prices...yes right before the NASDQ crash value.

Stuck in So Pa said...

Southeast York County, PA.

No real comps to go by here, because no real run up in prices. The credit bubble IS hitting home however, with the for sale/abandoned homes starting to noticeably rise in number. I know more than one couple who are stretched to the limit trying to keep up payments on just moderately priced, decent homes. You don't have to be in a bubble area to find people living in homes they NEVER should have been allowed to buy!

Non-bubble, rural areas are hard to follow, or even gauge. Even here, though, I feel it's going to get a lot worse!

Anonymous said...

Monmouth County, NJ

Living in Ocean County looking in Ocean/Monmouth. Prices are still high and things are selling slowly. Not sure how long it will take for prices to come down here, but a knock down is still fetching 400-500k on a 50x100 lot. It is sick that people still pay this much.

Anonymous said...

I think the Texas Oil Patch (Dallas-to-Houston) areas were the only major metro areas which didn't go berserk during the national housing bubble.

Anonymous said...

" About the only thing Cleveland has going for it is that the economy is so bad that it hasn't been overrun with illegal mexcrement like FL, AZ, CA."

Mexcrement. Great term, and fitting too. I like it...
From Mexifornia, Bay (Grey) Area.

UPTHECREEK said...

North Orange County, CA ,,, In our neighborhood is has fallen approx 30% from the high point in 2005.. still have another 10-20% to go..
Look Out Below.....Thanks Angelo

Anonymous said...

I live in Northern NJ (Bergen County). In my condo complex, the most recent unit my size sold for $390K. At the 2005/6 peak a comprable unit sold for 415K. So we've come down only a little. I expect the number to continue to decline, but the mean household income in my town is $120,000, so I'm not expecting a total collapse.

Anonymous said...

From what I could see numbers wise,
we are currently looking at a %20 drop and falling fast. Riverside Ca. is headed for a train wreck!!!

Prices will fall below $150,000 median range by 2009-10.

The Inland Empire is ground zero for California.

Keith I could show pictures of vast REO's but it might give this site a RATED X.

Following banks are taking on severe numbers of homes in area
Barclays, Indymac, Chase Bank,
Bear Stearns, Countrywide, Deutsche Bank, America S, HSBC, Washington Mutual.

ICEMAN

Anonymous said...

NH

Down 7% so far

Anonymous said...

Northside of Chicago

Lots of beautiful old homes, vintage-type condo conversions - my neighborhood is safe with good walkability and has fortunately been spared most of the teardown madness of Lakeview/Roscoe Village (charming brick walkup bulldozed for Soviet-style featureless condo building WTF!?!?!)

Paying $1300/month for 2bdrm/1bth apt (w/ garage)--probably would have to pay ~350K right now (w/o parking but w/ granite!), lots of condos on sale that have been on sale for a while--SF homes are being held right now, you can rent one for 2K but would have to pay 500-700K for it. We will see a 25%-40% drop IMHO.

The Mortgage Guy said...

Northern Fairfield County, CT. Talking to appraisers, statewide we're down around 10% with pockets that are both better and worse.

Appraisers and real estate attorneys have no work. Mortgage companies are dead as well. I heard of a loan officer who works at a local savings bank that hasn't had a paycheck in three months.

Our company is slow as well. Though we are getting refi calls, the majority are not doable loans either due to value declines or lack of product outside of conventional loans. There is no purchase activity at all.

Normally we could do the loans we are turning down now. These people are hurting and there is no escape hatch for them. The financial pain is in the pipeline, it's only a matter of time before it's plain for all to see.

Even though we are an hour from midtown Manhattan, the worst is yet to come.

Anonymous said...

I think the Texas Oil Patch (Dallas-to-Houston) areas were the only major metro areas which didn't go berserk during the national housing bubble.



There were pockets of "special" areas in those cities that went beserk. For the most part, you can find very affordable housing. West Texas is going beserk with the oil/gas boom. Prices in Midland-Odessa are over the $200,000 mark. They were probably under $100,000 before oil prices shot up

Anonymous said...

as everyone is saying ..it is always the other guy who is/was the sucker and not them.....then the get offered 50 percent less than they paid...no matter the time or date.....and do not sell unless distressed and the puppet masters of the sheeple see fit to make them distressed

Anonymous said...

some of the internet humorists are quite.......

Anonymous said...

gvuy down the lane is making his very well built, good neighbor hood top dollar house look like a mcmansion??????????????????????????????????????? hiding the gold??? have the taxes on those assessments gone that high?/

Anonymous said...

planting..orange, grapefruit, lemon, pomegrante, pigmy dates and figs, apricot,apple in the desert and trying anything else that maybe grows here

Anonymous said...

the values could fall 90 percent leaving you paying 4 or 5 times toO much property tax on properties that must sell in order to receive reevaluations aND NOT BE ABLE TO SELL. so gladly do we pay for local infrastructures to our tax and spend local politicians and their crony giveaways and no infrastructure keeps....

Anonymous said...

so prepare for the long term of being tax bled on property that will not sell at assessed or appraised value ...say maybe 20 years of "home" aND BINGO REALITY SET IN AT THE SLAP IN THE FACE TRUTHS OF A 90 PERCENT DECLINE

Anonymous said...

SO I AVERAGE MY 3 MILLION DOLLAR MANSION AND MY 120,000 DOLLAR MANSION AND BREAK EVEN WHERE? ALL ON WHAT I BELEIVED TO BE AN AVERAGE WAGE OF 17,000 DOLLARS.....SEEMS THERE IS/WAS SOME MISINFORMATION ALONG THE LINE,...................
/

yoski said...

Miami,FL

In the nice areas prices are down maybe 10% (Miami Beach, Coral Gables, Coconut Grove)
In the slummy areas which are abundant in Miami prices are down about 50%.
Further outlook. In the nice areas maybe another 10-15% from current levels. In the slums about another 50%. In the end the better areas will have seen about a 20% decline while the slums will see about a 75% decline. I mean a nice slum property 1930's vintage with termites and bullet holes 2/1 on 1000 sqft was running about $250K a the peak of the bubble. You can't rent it and you don't want to live there, so its really worth exactly $0.- in my book. Before the bubble stuff like that would go for about $50K.
Oh yeah, there're still 30,000 condos under construction that will hit the market in the next 12 month...somebody will take a severe beating on those.

Anonymous said...

Inland Empire, California.

Many condo conversions in Riverside county are listing now for 40% off of 2005 prices and still nobody is buying. I've watched one development where 2bd/2ba condos were going for 525k in 05, and now nobody wants them at 300k. Maybe the $400/month in taxes and HOA has something to do with it.

I bought a dirt lot 1/4 acre in Lake Elsinore in 02 for $2500. I sold it in early 06 for 980k. I bet it'd go for less than half of that now.

charlatan said...

scotland

difficult to tell how much it has come down because all the asking prcies are offers over in scotland....but they seem to have started coming down in th elast three months.

in total: off 40-50% in real terms (maybe more if the government stops fiddling its inflation figures: the idea that our inflation is currently lower than that of the eurozone is laughable). more for flats in city centres. less for detached houses with a bit of class. but the slump will last at least five years.

Anonymous said...

Southern NH, Nashua

THe last six months has been bad here(or good for myself, a potential buyer). The rate of foreclosures is very high now and homes that were once 260-280 are being resold by banks around 180-210. I'v seen the same houses relisted again, only empty and alot cheaper. Nothing is selling and the weekly real estate transacion in the paper is 1/3rd of waht it used to be.

I think it's going to be much worse throughout the winter.

Philadelphia said...

Philadelphia

Under 400k sales are OK, over 400k sales are non-existant. Drop so far of about 20% in suburbia. Anticipating another 15-20% drop in '08-'09. A lot of ARM resets, any government bailout will be underfunded and won't work.