December 19, 2007

Here's the blaring headline from housing-crash-central San Diego. I think this one probably stopped traffic. HousingPANIC anyone?

Ignoring the cold hard truth, living in denial and listening to realtors on commission was possible for awhile.

And then it wasn't.


RUN FOR THE HILLS!!! The panic starts now.



59 comments:

Anonymous said...

x
x
x
x

Interesting dinner conversations tonight in San Diego

Anonymous said...

Suzanne?

Peter T said...

Great graphs. Last Monday, we had a similar message in the Twin Cities in our local newspaper above the fold: Prices down YOY over 5% - but they hadn't added any graphs.

keith said...

Picture is worth 1000 realtors

Cow_tipping said...

Naaaa .. the gay people are going to prop up housing.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

SquatterFodder said...

Let's see here....Jumbo's dry up, Subprime dries up. That only leaves the people who deserve and need houses.

Regression to the mean.

Bring back affordable housing and stop the games.

Enjoy the decline!

Anonymous said...

I'll be happy with life when prices fall back to 1999 levels.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

LOL!!!

Like I've always said, San Diego is basically Scottsdale with a beach. The people all even look the same.

Rob Dawg said...

Something else to keep in mind. Prices may be back to 2004 but equivalent prices would be lucky to be at 2002 levels. Home size and amenities for the median 2007 versus years past is larger and better appointed. Then there's the real danger. I'd bet less than half of those who bought 1999 thru 2004 have their original basis. HELOCs and refis abound.

Anonymous said...

Minnesota is screwed. Only full-doc loans are allowed now. Values are going to keep falling big time.

Anonymous said...

Due to the declining marginal value of realtors I think a picture is worth alot for than a thousand realtors Keith!!!

Michael said...

I first read the 'reality is a bitch' tag as 'realty is a bitch' ...

Anonymous said...

It isn't just a river in Egypt. It's the NAR

Catholic girl said...

My girlfriend from Brazil and I were talking today and the housing crash subject came up.

She said that roughly 1 million Brazillians have left the USA to go back to Brazil.

I wonder why they left??

They can't leave! I love the Brazillianese!

No who the hell am I gonna find to wax my bikini line! Dammit!

recently layed off from wamu said...

But Suzanne said real estate never goes down in value.

Mark in San Diego said...

This is just the warm-up act. . .my banker friends (fewer than there used to be) told me a lot of banks are keeping the foreclosed homes on the books till after January 1 for "accounting purposes" (like the Japanese banks did), but will dump them on the market after the first of the year!

eric in vegas said...

Well MY home is different!

Anonymous said...

Merry Christmas--2004.

Still a long way to drop said...

The prices of houses in the San Diego area will fall much much lower. Just look at the OFHEO charts to see how much they can / will fall before they revert to the mean. My thought is that the prices will look like the 90's again because of the oversupply due to speculators and the lack of qualified buyers after all the foreclosures end.

the little blip in the nineties was nothing compared to the run-up this decade.

The OFHEO website which has historical price data on all thge national markets is here:

http://www.housedata.info/

Out at the peak said...

My local paper had a nice graph yesterday. Median for Sonoma County, CA went from 619K at the peak to 500K now.

I've seen some foreclosure sales go into escrow at huge drops, but I'm not seeing the MLS recording the sale afterward! Maybe I'm not patient enough. It's been almost four weeks.

Once some of these more recent numbers get into the system, the statistics in January will look even worse.

Anonymous said...

No, 1000 realtors isn't worth a picture. It will only get you 1000+ lies

serindippity said...

Funny, I just had a lunch conversation here in San Diego.

Lots of reasonably well paid 30something tech nerds, all very high IQ and conservative with money. They've all been priced out and they are debating how long to wait before buying. That housing will decline is considered a fact like Isaac Newton's laws.

I guess the answer is "when the dumb money is disgusted with housing or kicked out by the bank."


Yes, I'm a homeowner in SD (bought in 2000, 25% down, 30 year fixed, refied to 5.25%, no money out ever), and I think deflating the bubble is great news.

I can pay off my mortgage in cash if necessary (but why at 5.25% fixed?) and might be waiting to upgrade.

Mr Bill said...

OOHHH NOOO!

Merciless Ming said...

I visited the home of an old friend in San Diego about two years ago when the housing bubble was in full bloom. My friend boasted that his middle class home, which had been purchased about a decade prior for slightly over $300,000., was then worth at least triple what he had paid and headed into the million dollar plus category. He laughed at my suggestion that home prices were in a bubble and said that it was outrageous one could dare to think that San Diego home prices could ever plunge.
I doubt that he's still laughing if he took a look at yesterday's Union Tribune. He'll be laughing even less if the downward spiral continues, but at least he didn't pay the bubble price of recent years like so many suckers.

Anonymous said...

Hey shitferbrains, How's that Dow 14k by friday going?
You've got to be the stupidest troll we've had yet.

Ed said...

Impossible. My realtor said prices always go up. You are a doom and gloom liar Keith. Shame on you.

keith said...

"Honey, we're paying 400% more to own this home than if we rented it. We work 6 jobs to afford our teaser loan. We're losing $5000 a month in "equity". And our realtor made $40,000 last year selling it to us. How stupid are we?"

Anonymous said...

Wow, it's going to be a really depressing Xmas. Remember people, try to restrain yourselves from saying "I told you so" at the Xmas dinner table to those eager home owners in your families.

Paul E. Math said...

"The region was among the first nationally to post price declines and now many analysts say they are watching to see if the county leads a price recovery."

Still hilariously optimistic. So many morons are waiting for prices to hit bottom, expecting them to bounce right back. We are nowhere near the bottom.

Peter T said...

anon:
> Minnesota is screwed. Only full-doc loans are allowed now. Values are going to keep falling big time.

Minnesota has seen the light. Return to traditional mortgages. Housing becomes more affordable (it was never as bad here as in CA). What is left, however, are foreclosures left and right, which is bad. Damn bubble!

Anonymous said...

I live in San Diego - how is this decline going to affect rents? I hate my rented condo and want to upgrade - should I do it now before rents go up? Or is it a given that they will go up?

I'm confused as to how to get the best apt. for the lowest $$ in this market, there seem to be tons of "luxury" rentals out there but they are pretty expensive and have gone up quite a bit since last year. I should have moved last year.

Oh and who is Suzanne?

ohhhhhhhhmyyyyyyyy said...

I guess I'm happy. I just got a nice bonus and, since I'm shoveling the snow, I get a 20% break on my rent! yippee!

Anonymous said...

Still a long way:
In the past, I didn't find any downturns, but I suppose inflation during the long plateaus counts as a drop. Also during some of those periods, wages rose.

The shape of the curve is mighty similar from state to state. If it continues like this - yikes!

Anonymous said...

a good friend said realestate always goes up.

I said wrong. The dollar just goes down through inflation making you believe realestate always goes up.

He looked puzzled, and I said in 1913, 5 cents had the same purchasing power of a dollar today. its called inflation.

Then i began to think earnestly, in fact realestate has been going down in value over the last 100 years.

The puppet masters have indeed done a masterful job conning the masses of sheeple!

stuckinthecity said...

Thank god this won't happen in Chicago.....or anywhere else...... right??

stuckinthecity said...

SquatterFodder said...
Let's see here....Jumbo's dry up, Subprime dries up. That only leaves the people who deserve and need houses.
----------------

No, it only leaves people that CAN PAY FOR THE DAMN THING!

Anonymous said...

No who the hell am I gonna find to wax my bikini line! Dammit!

December 19, 2007 8:29 PM




who is going to fight in the UFC??!!

Anonymous said...

BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA

Oh wait never mind.

stuckinthecity said...

The OFHEO website which has historical price data on all thge national markets is here:

http://www.housedata.info/

December 19, 2007 9:07 PM
-------------

These number are so aggravating. The average SAFE neighborhood in Chicago is soooo much more expensive than the Chicago to Naperville to Joliet average shows! There are MILES of unwanted land in between Chicago and Naperville and betweeen Chicago and Joliet that no normal person would want to drive thru let alone LIVE!

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Hey shitferbrains, How's that Dow 14k by friday going?
You've got to be the stupidest troll we've had yet.

December 19, 2007 9:35 PM




considering the true hidden inflation that included housing heating gasoline food gold etc etc etc, a 14k Dow aint sh!t. It should be at 30k!!

Anonymous said...

Funny, I service people who think they have money and are better than the beasts of the feild(middle class). All these fools invested heavily in realestate and made risky bets in the financial markets. They still believe they will profit from the destruction of the American middle class. Stupid is as stupid does. Signed, beast of burdon.

satan said...

An interesting montage clip on the housing bubble.. visual imagery is very HP-like

http://youtube.com/watch?v=2nw8KCNYWls

Anonymous said...

I live in Oceanside. I rent, and now that prices are going down I can afford the guns and ammo it will take to buy a starter home and live in it in this latin american outpost controlled by the numerous Mexican and Salvadorean Crime Gansta's. Lets see, we can put the sofa here, and the tripod mounted 50 cal. behind the sand bags to cover the doorway. How cozy! Thank you open border traitors!

devestment said...

Here comes the media shit storm that will cause consumer fear and pull back in spending! This is just the start! Wait till the Presidential smear advertising and open debate on the economy in 08!

OUCH! Replay California 1991 when I lost A QUARTER MILLION (in valuable 1991 dollars)

smitty said...

Those realtors are having a harder and harder time, trying to lie their way out of that graph!
Fools never learn, the next bubble what ever it may be, will have its own cheerleaders and fleeced suckers, history repeats itself.

LauraVella said...

I imagine there will be tons on homes listed for sale after the holidays.

Reality is starting to set and homeowners want to try to enjoy, or stay in denial this omonious Christmas season...

LauraVella said...

Anon said:"I'll be happy with life when prices fall back to 1999 levels."


1999 prices sound o.k too, but Actally, I'm hoping for prices to fall back to 1996 levels, (176,000 Median) or even lower, which was the absolute trough of the last housing downturn.

Oh no... Suzannne! You told me Real Estate new goes down!!!

Anonymous said...

1999 prices sound o.k too, but Actally, I'm hoping for prices to fall back to 1996 levels, (176,000 Median) or even lower, which was the absolute trough of the last housing downturn.
-------------------------

Heck, I am waiting for 1982 prices!

RayNLA said...

Anonymous said...
I live in San Diego - how is this decline going to affect rents? I hate my rented condo and want to upgrade - should I do it now before rents go up? Or is it a given that they will go up?

I'm confused as to how to get the best apt. for the lowest $$ in this market, there seem to be tons of "luxury" rentals out there but they are pretty expensive and have gone up quite a bit since last year. I should have moved last year.

Oh and who is Suzanne?

___________________________________


Uhh....You are kidding right?

You must be new to HP? What reality hit along with the reset?
You stopped drinking red Kool Aid?
Maybe if you posted with a name instead of "anonymous" I would consider introducing you to Suzanne.

Perhaps you two have already met if you "bought" a home in the last 5 years.

RayNLA

raynla said...

Merciless Ming said...
I visited the home of an old friend in San Diego about two years ago when the housing bubble was in full bloom. My friend boasted that his middle class home, which had been purchased about a decade prior for slightly over $300,000., was then worth at least triple what he had paid and headed into the million dollar plus category. He laughed at my suggestion that home prices were in a bubble and said that it was outrageous one could dare to think that San Diego home prices could ever plunge.
I doubt that he's still laughing if he took a look at yesterday's Union Tribune. He'll be laughing even less if the downward spiral continues, but at least he didn't pay the bubble price of recent years like so many suckers.

___________________________________


This is all great but one question?

Did he use the ATM?

Check the garage for clues.

RayNLA

Anonymous said...

try to restrain yourselves from saying "I told you so" at the Xmas dinner table to those eager home owners in your families.

-----

Why? I plan to give them heaps, with an extra dose of salt!

rayNLA said...

1999 prices sound o.k too, but Actally, I'm hoping for prices to fall back to 1996 levels, (176,000 Median) or even lower, which was the absolute trough of the last housing downturn.
-------------------------

Heck, I am waiting for 1982 prices!

__________________________________


How about "Free Homes" is you promise to take care of it!

This actually happened during the Depresion.

RayNLA

ugh said...

Oh Suzanne, no don't you cry for me,

I'm off to Clownifornia to pick a HELOC off a tree.

Anonymous said...

Such horse shit

80%, THAT IS A TUMBLE.

11%, that is a joke

lets panic when the housing drops by 80%, not 11, 15, 20 or 30%

just like the dow should drop by 6000 points to cause a panic in the market.

Anonymous said...

From the article:

“San Diego is a bellwether for the bubble itself in prices,” Diffley said. “It would be a good sign for the rest of the country if the adjustment is as we project it, another 5 percent, and not for more than that.”

This guy needs a reality check. Pricetracker already shows prices down 2.5% IN THE FIRST 2 WEEKS of December!! You can count on SD being down 5% by mid January and in full retreat by early summer. I'd say there's still another 20+% to go.

Anonymous said...

at 1980 prices i would buy my old homestead back and live off the land in my declining years....

ChrisB said...

Anonymous said...
Such horse shit

80%, THAT IS A TUMBLE.

11%, that is a joke

lets panic when the housing drops by 80%, not 11, 15, 20 or 30%

just like the dow should drop by 6000 points to cause a panic in the market.

December 20, 2007 6:45 AM


Really? I know people that have lost 10% and they're severly depressed. 10% in the DC area is $50K or more - how many people can afford to write off $50k? Yeah, they're panicked. A drop of 20 - 30% and they'll start handing over the keys to the bank even faster.

onlu goes up........ said...

I am here in SD on the coast and I can tell you it is going to get much much worse. We have a very long way to fall. I think we will still drop around 30-50%. I know, I know...everyone wants to live here and prices dont decline. Well, looks like they sure do decline. Watch for the blame game to begin.
Where are you VICTIMS????

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
I live in Oceanside. I rent, and now that prices are going down I can afford the guns and ammo it will take to buy a starter home and live in it in this latin american outpost controlled by the numerous Mexican and Salvadorean Crime Gansta's. Lets see, we can put the sofa here, and the tripod mounted 50 cal. behind the sand bags to cover the doorway. How cozy! Thank you open border traitors!

December 20, 2007 1:40 AM



Oceanside is a scarey place. Hard to believe that coastal north county San Diego could be so bad. Why are you renting there?