December 17, 2007

FLASH: San Diego home prices have already crashed 15% from the peak. How low will they go?


20%?
30%?
50%?
More?

Suzannnnneeee!!!!

It was all fraud and speculation folks. We're going back to looking at Price to Income ratios, and at Rental Yields. Unfortunately anyone who bought in 2004 - 2007 is going to get wiped out. And they can thank Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke and their local realtor on commission.

SAN DIEGO – Home prices in San Diego County tumbled nearly 10 percent last month from year-ago levels, taking the median down to $440,000, the lowest in more than three years, DataQuick Information Systems reported Monday.

The latest price represents a 15 percent fallback from the all-time record of $517,500 set in November 2005. It was a bigger decline than the 11.7 percent peak-to-trough drop from 1992 to 1996, when the San Diego economy slid into a deep, prolonged recession.

35 comments:

Anonymous said...

Let's not forget the golden rule of real estate, no not location, location, location. Ignore what your realtor says, Your home is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

socialists suckle said...

Change your blog's name to Housing ARMageddon!!!

Anonymous said...

You're pissing off the DailyKooks crowd by daring to criticize Hitlary and upChuck Schumer. They'll be calling you a racist and Nazi soon. It's the same tired old tactics those idiot baby boomer hippies have been using since the 60's. I hope social security goes bankrupt soon and they all end up living under bridges.

devestment said...

Who cares? I want their women and portable goods.

Mark in San Diego said...

But. . .everyone wants to live here...especially the hundreds of homeless along our waterfront. . .much nicer here than Chicago in winter. Of course I encourage all the homeless to hang around expensive buildings and depreciate the property values faster. . .I also see more and more homeless in ReMax polo shirts!

Eric Ogunbase said...

I'm just waiting to see all of the people who paid over $300k to live in a "converted condo" (Realtor for "apartment") in El Cajon, one of the top 5 places for meth usage. Those payments are more than double for the rents in the area.

panzerpup said...

Let them try a bailout. The dollar debasement will send my silver and gold to bubble levels. Then, I can cash in and buy a few of those empty condos in San Diego.

Anonymous said...

Well at least there will be plenty of cheap housing for the flood of illegal immigrants.

Anonymous said...

So 2 years to drop 15% so far this time and the last bubble burst in SD, which was painful, was ~11% over ~ 4 years. This one is definitely going to be a dozie!!! Lets hope we learn a lesson this time around!

Anonymous said...

My prediction is down to $375K by end of next year. Flat in 2009. That's a 25% drop from peak.

Anonymous said...

Gotta love these Cubans that get asylum in the US just to start a career in crime at taxpayer expense. You guys know that Cubans vote mainly Republican, right?

31 indicted for home loan fraud

Federal prosecutors in Miami-Dade County unsealed an indictment Monday, charging 31 defendants in a multimillion-dollar home loan fraud.

Juan Torrens, owner of Amsouth Trust & Investment Corp. and president of Countryside Land & Development; Rachael Torrens, president of 1st Choice Realty of South Florida and owner of First United Mortgage USA Corp.; Daniel Ramos; Alfonso A. Muxo, a Florida-certified real estate appraiser and owner of Palm Bay Real Estate Appraisals; and Katherine Harris, former president and part owner of Floridian Home Title Corp., were charged with conspiracy to commit wire fraud and/or wire fraud for their roles in obtaining fraudulent mortgage loans for the purchase of 28 properties located in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, and in the city of Marco Island.

The indictment also charges 26 people with wire fraud for their actions as straw buyers.


http://tinyurl.com/ys5nos

Edgar said...

The green wienie wants to give the drunken sheeple a speedball.

Anonymous said...

I also live in San Diego. My husband and I make decent money and have lived in a cramped 2 bedroom apt. for years in order to save. We were actually looking during the big run-up and made several offers, only to be outbid by people paying over the listing price, etc. Finally we threw our hands up and said ,"this is just retarded" and sat back to watch. Now we are laughing and hoping to buy in the next year or so. Yeah, it's a superb place to live (esp. in the Winter), but honestly, $650k for a cracker box that you wouldn't have wanted to rent even as a student? It's just insane...You couldn't get a *decent* house for less than $700k and I'm hoping that changes in 2008-09.

Anonymous said...

Deflation of real estate, wages, and securities. Inflation of food, medicine, and energy. It's That 70's Show aka stagflation.

Anonymous said...

What about Palm Springs, I heard it is 8% down, true? How low will it go?
anyone?

Thanks

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

Gotta be more than 15%. It's more than that here in OC and OC's bubble (outside of Santa Ana) was much smaller than San Diego's.

Then again, this is going by my own experience and seeing how the average listing in Newport has dropped from $1,000 per sq foot to around $600 per foot.

I believe my own eyes and ears and NOT what some MSM reporter or "economic report" tells me.

Tedy Jewski said...

15% aint sh!t after the gains they've seen.
Housing there needs another 50% haircut to get back to reality

Shakster said...

Pretty Looooooooowwwwwwwwwww,I ahrrreckon.Beef ,it's what's for Dinner.

k.w. - southern ca. said...

Prices will drop *until* the P/E makes sense ... which is a long, long way off.

Anonymous said...

Even if property prices in Southern California drop 50%, homes here would still be way overpriced. The arrogance of homeowners (aka homedebtors) in Southern California is probably the most you'll ever see anywhere. And it is in Southern California that had the most liar loans, the greatest number of creative financing. Property values in Southern California need to drop 70% to 80% just to get back to fundamentals of P/E ratio.

What most people outside of Southern California dont realize is that although housing prices are ridiculously high, wages here dont even remotely approach what is necessary to purchase a home with a traditional mortgage!

So, yes an 80% drop would be about right!

Anonymous said...

Mark in San Diego said...

But. . .everyone wants to live here...especially the hundreds of homeless along our waterfront. . .much nicer here than Chicago in winter. Of course I encourage all the homeless to hang around expensive buildings and depreciate the property values faster. . .I also see more and more homeless in ReMax polo shirts!

December 17, 2007 11:58 PM<<<<


yes dan diego is nice. and sometimes you can go to the beach and smell the mexican sewage that is washing up on the shore....

Anonymous said...

i live here in san diego, west of the i-5. the official numbers are bs. prices in the 92109 zip code for condos are off 40% from peak.

i live in a 4plex. i bought in 1996. my neighbors each paid over 3x what i paid - in 2004.

within 2 blocks of my house are condos for sale at $315/sf. that makes my 3 neighbors over $100K under water.

gonna get real interesting around here...

Anonymous said...

Gotta love these Cubans that get asylum in the US just to start a career in crime at taxpayer expense. You guys know that Cubans vote mainly Republican, right?


Isn't that like saying that all blacks are criminals and vote Democratic?

Anonymous said...


15% aint sh!t after the gains they've seen.
Housing there needs another 50% haircut to get back to reality



When you look at the minimum 50% accumulated inflation since 2002, the real gains have been wiped away in many areas.

Anonymous said...

And it is in Southern California that had the most liar loans, the greatest number of creative financing.

Option ARMs were most widely used in the Bay Area. If you want to see arrogance, look no further than NorCal. They think their pet's shit smells good.

Anonymous said...

They're having a firesale on crackhouses in Compton. The prices have dropped from half a million dollars to only $400,000 for a 1000sf 1940's bungalow.

Anonymous said...

In 96 they were exactly 50% off of their 1991 peaks. This time will be worse - 70% off of 2006 peaks and will take 4 years or 2011.

Anonymous said...

50 to 75 percent! And it's gonna hurt... remember leverage hurts on the way down.

mhrist said...

If people got 200%+++++ appreciation in 3-4 years, why would you even think single digits is the max? Hello!
So you have 4.6 trillion in mortgages, then 10+ trillion in 5-6 years. And I challenge you to show me someone from the 4.6 trillion that actually kept their house and didn't hoose it in the last 5 years.
I make 20k/month after taxes. Don't give signatures. My 20k/month are worth way less than 5/k a month and a signature. Even 0/k month and signature is worth more, my friend got a 1.5 million in houses without socks! Yea, he could get 1.5 mil for houses easier than getting 1.50$ for socks.

Marty

Anonymous said...

Well what do you know. With a looming deficit, California is now trying to avoid paying the hidden health care costs for the poor and illegals. They plan to shift it directly onto the backs of people who already pay through the nose for health care.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/12/18/health/main3627743.shtml

Anonymous said...

I live in Oceanside. I rent, and now that prices are going down I can afford the guns and ammo it will take to buy a starter home and live in it in this latin american outpost controlled by the numerous Mexican and Salvadorean Crime Gansta's. Lets see, we can put the sofa here, and the tripod mounted 50 cal. behind the sand bags to cover the doorway. How cozy! Thank you open border traitors!

Anonymous said...

Wow. I'm in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, where our median house price last month was $508,000. So, I can buy in San Diego for $70,000 less than in this backwater tourist town? I'm just waiting for the mother of all busts to happen here when the penny finally drops and locals realize that the whole world DOESN'T really want to move here like the local realtors claim.

joe blow said...

go back to 2001 prices and that will give you an idea of how low. 15 off the top doesn't even come close to eliminating the huge run-up in prices.

George ran when the fire got out of hand. said...

I'm a gonna reckon we'll be seeing a lot more of this kind of thing here right after Christmas:

http://www.ninjapirate.com/fire.html

This is one way to lower your heating bills that's for sure!

k.w. - southern, ca. said...

Come to Southern California to see some really
over-priced "cracker boxes". :)

What you're stating about housing is the very
fundamental problem ... alot of money still doesn't buy you much at all, it's pathetic.

You and your husband were thinking right when
you threw up your hands and said "foeget it".
Just one phony after another phony outbidding each other, it's best not to get wrapped into that game.

Housing prices have no alternative but to drop steeply over the next 2-3 years.


anonymous said...
I also live in San Diego. My husband and I make decent money and have lived in a cramped 2 bedroom apt. for years in order to save. We were actually looking during the big run-up and made several offers, only to be outbid by people paying over the listing price, etc. Finally we threw our hands up and said ,"this is just retarded" and sat back to watch. Now we are laughing and hoping to buy in the next year or so. Yeah, it's a superb place to live (esp. in the Winter), but honestly, $650k for a cracker box that you wouldn't have wanted to rent even as a student? It's just insane...You couldn't get a *decent* house for less than $700k and I'm hoping that changes in 2008-09.