November 21, 2007

This is getting really bad really fast now. I'm not sure any of you understand just how bad this is gonna get


It's not just housing

It's not just the dollar.

It's not just stocks.

Everything is gonna fall now.

Prepare to lose your job.

Prepare for the loss of your savings and buying power.

Prepare for an economic disaster.

HousingPANIC is here.

109 comments:

Save our ship said...

I keep waiting to see one of the TV talking heads wearing their lapel pin American flag upside down.

London Stud said...

I'll bite...Why

keith said...

Countrywide is days away from filing for bankruptcy

CEOs are about to be arrested for securities violations and fraud

Fannie and Freddie are collapsing, which takes down the entire housing market

Millions are losing their jobs (even if government numbers hide it)

Inflation is roaring (even if the government hides it)

The dollar is collapsing

And above all... Only a fool would buy a house today (without a massive discount)

It's over.

Anonymous said...

But Greg Swann said Phoenix has year round golf!

Anonymous said...

Keith:


Run to the nearest pub and order two pints!


(Apologies to Douglas Adams)

Anonymous said...

By Bill Fleckenstein

As I looked at my screens during Wednesday's rout in stocks, it occurred to me that our financial system was in the process of imploding. With credit contracting, many businesses in that arena are in the process of being destroyed -- and, without a financial system, there is no capitalism.

Thus I wrote in my daily column on my Web site that day: "It seems to me that there's almost no chance of escaping a stock crash at this point."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/StageIsSetForAStockCrash.aspx

Anonymous said...

Kieth - do you recommend shorting Fannie and Freddy now? What's your thought on a bounce? I'm interested in shorting, 'cause clearly the whole stinkin' pile is set to blow, but I saw the shorters get burned with Countrywide and the rate cut. It's set to blow, but it's also rigged against the obvious.

Advice, please!

John

Anonymous said...

Keith

When do you think Fannie and Freddie are going to collapse?

Illegals Everywhere said...

Agreed! Some time ago it was said here at HP that the Dow would drop as low as 8000. I believed it then and I believe it now.

I just wish I had invested more than 5% of my net in PM's back then..

smitty said...

"By Bill Fleckenstein"

that Fleckenstein piece will surely be a classic and right up there with Cramer's "don't they know what they're doing" piece!

Thing is, folks, while I'm walking anxiety, I know that-- even during the "great depression," things bounced around a bit but hell didn't freeze over.

The illuminati are simply pulling the world's choke chain so, around thanksgiving feasts, people can start discussing the financial times that lie ahead and prepare!

"It was the worst of times, it was the best of times!" we have to "keep our chins up" folks, that's what Suzzane would ask us to do! So let's do it!

borkafatty said...

Dollar @ 75.02...and down...My poor mans gold is looking better and better...I think ill throw it all over the bed this evening and roll around in it with the wife....

Gold ---check
Silver---check
cash reserves--check
Green Substance---CHECK!!!
Popcorn...check!
Debt free...check!

Anonymous said...

I think you're being a little melodramatic Keith...

Anonymous said...

Keith, please, haven't you been watching CNBS? They sound more & more like the NAR. Now is a great time to buy! The thing that upsets me, is that all you have to do is step back from the trees and take a look at the forrest:

1. Record forclosures now
2. Bulk of mortgages to adjust just now starting
3. Rapidly declining dollar
4. $100 Oil(and going much higher)
5. Lunar inflation(if transparency is what Benny wants to convey, then how about putting M3 out for public consumption?)
6. Massive government deficits
7. Blackhole moneypit in Iraq
8. Weelky injections from the Fed to keep the banking system solvent
9. A Democrat will probably win next year(higher taxes means less consumer spending, meaning even weaker GDP)

You are exactly right. How this is not setting off sirens in Congress is absolutely amazing. Have things ever been this bad on so many fronts in the history of the U.S.?

If people buy stocks for their earnings potential, then why the hell would you want to own U.S. stocks?

You may actually see people leave the U.S. in the coming years for the same reasons that immigrants come here today.

Anonymous said...

it looks like in 2008, we shall never have the opportunity to vote.......i think they will concoct a government sponsored terror event and plunge us into martial law. many reasons really, the economy is dying, they want to attack iran, they want to change over to the amero, etc, and lastly but not leastly, ron paul.....etc....

Cow_tipping said...

In the early/mid 90's we had all of the same factors in play albeit in different quantities.
After a short duration of joblessness, most people went back to work in similar jobs, after a period of losing their houses, they rented or bought at lower prices, after a period od whatever ... they went back to the normalcy as it existed before the bubble and subsequent crash.
I dont anticipate much different. .com bubble popped and this will mimic that.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

Anonymous said...

I'm wondering if I should keep cash at home instead of the bank.

Illegals Everwhere said...

Bork, You forgot Guns!

Anonymous said...

keith said...

Countrywide is days away from filing for bankruptcy

CEOs are about to be arrested for securities violations and fraud

Fannie and Freddie are collapsing, which takes down the entire housing market

Millions are losing their jobs (even if government numbers hide it)

Inflation is roaring (even if the government hides it)

The dollar is collapsing

And above all... Only a fool would buy a house today (without a massive discount)

It's over.

November 21, 2007 9:45 PM<<<<


well i guess this completes the keith transformation to the dark side. welcome keith. we have been waiting.

Anonymous said...

Cow_tipping said...

In the early/mid 90's we had all of the same factors in play albeit in different quantities.
After a short duration of joblessness, most people went back to work in similar jobs, after a period of losing their houses, they rented or bought at lower prices, after a period od whatever ... they went back to the normalcy as it existed before the bubble and subsequent crash.
I dont anticipate much different. .com bubble popped and this will mimic that.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

November 21, 2007 10:17 PM<<


but in the early 90's there wasn't the spector of 400 to 700 trillion in worthless derivatives that people have bought, hanging around in space out there , off balance sheet of course....

Anonymous said...

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fight facism.

america is on the brink.


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ford python said...

I believe the situation calls for three pints.

Three is the number, and the number of pints shall be three. Neither two nor four shall you consume, lest ye consume two on your way to consuming three. Five is right out.

But all paraphrasing aside, I'm with Keith all the way. His predictions have been spectacular in their accuracy, if not a bit too farsighted in some cases.

Run Away!

getyourselfconnected said...

I had a question as it regards to the "freezing" of teaser rates in California. Assume it can really be done. If the FED (ie you and me) has to bail out banks and lenders that are going to have massive losses from the restructuring, should the mortgage interest tax deduction be withdrwan from those homeowners that benefit from the lower fixed rates? It would seem like a double windfall to me to allow the deduction to stand. Any ideas? I have a poll up on my site where you can vote on it. Have a good holiday!

Anonymous said...

I say things will chug along until after X-mas. Reatilers do 50-65% of their business from the Friday after Thanksgiving to Dec 24th. When the numbers are in on this holiday season look for a nosedive in stocks. People no longer have the phoney spun out of thin air wealth to spend on garbage this year.

On a side note, there is a $129 sale on a reg. price $249 GPS navigation thing Friday. I dunno if it is worth buying cause if the economy crashes in early 08 I will not need to drive anywhere. On the other hand it will keep me entertained at home so no need to go anywhere burning soon to come $4 gasoline.

cobra2411 said...

Prepare to get tossed out of your rented house when your landlord doesn't pay the mortgage and gets foreclosed on...

Anonymous said...

You may actually see people leave the U.S. in the coming years for the same reasons that immigrants come here today.

November 21, 2007 10:14 PM<<<


only fools think they can run from what is coming. you cannot. there is nowhere to hide. besides any american who runs and does not do his duty to God and his country is just as bad as the people who are ruining it.

Anonymous said...

Reading these comments I feel like Dr. Evil with his pinky at his lips and saying: "You just don't get it do you?" That Fleckenstein article is aspiring to the END of our entire way of life.
The comment from Keith is probable. Countrywide stock is below $9. Fannie and Freddie have massive debt, and I know a lot of people who have already lost jobs, hours of work, benefits, no paid holidays, etc. and it is rising.

Inflation yes, food and energy.
Dollar collapsing, we all know about that one.
Housing collapse? Some people still are holding on to the idea that they are going to get a windfall. The most stubborn thing I have seen over the last few months is the refusal of people to lower prices. This only makes things worse. It is NEVER, repeat NEVER going to return to those days of competitive bids on houses.
Our way of life is about to end.

Anonymous said...

Keith:

Love your passion (and your perscipacity). Also love london stud's British dry humor. You DID understand he was joking, right?

Love and L-Tryptohan,

freddyinp'town

Anonymous said...

I have hope that people will wake up and vote for Ron Paul.

Anonymous said...

What do you do if you're locked into a crappy Fidelity 401(K) with no option to buy treasuries? Just crappy mortgage exposed bonds and stocks. Woe is me.

Anonymous said...

Want a trigger for the next leg down?

When ACA goes bk.

Mark in San Diego said...

A year ago I would have disagreed, 6 months ago I would have probably disagreed, but today, I am afraid (in both senses of the word) that I DO agree. . .

I have an epifiny this afternoon - I saw an ad that said, "BAD CREDIT, NO PROBLEM" . . .the American consumer has now been conditioned to default, because it has no consequences. . .the credit industry created a monster with easy credit, credit for people with bad or no credit, credit for illegals, and credit for people who were in bankruptcy. . .what subliminal message does that send??. . ."It is ok to walk away from debt, because you can always get more."

SO - here we go, auto loan defaults are up, credit card defaults are up, and foreclosures are just starting. . .An Empire of Debt is collapsing, and now Paulson and Bernake are in a panic. . .Bush doesn't understand (just go to Crawford for the weekend George) and Cheney already has his money parked offshore . . .likely in a nice Swiss account. Just hope my foreign investments aren't confiscated!!

Anonymous said...

i agree most people dont know how really bad it is going to get- the gov. is just about out of " hide the weenie" ploys to keep propping this thing up- we will have many many families with no where to live in the next year unless you consider tent cities in california to be housing. what we need is a massive rate INCREASE to get the $ back to some level of strength(wont happen under current fed chair.) and wash out all of the phony sH*t in this economy, we probably DO need conforming loan limits raised to 1mil. to keep people in their houses ASSUMING they can qualify under todays standards. my friends prepare for a dow 8000 it WILL happen in the next 5-12 months probably sooner. the good news is the American people WILL weather this storm - as we always have.

Anonymous said...

The stock market crashed again today, no one cares...

I LOOOVE IT! The pigs are in the chute heading into the slaughterhouse ready to be stunned, clamped into shackles and have their heads and limbs cut off.

They are all out shopping/charging for shit they don't need and cannot afford!

Think what the thanksgiving turkey went through and by this time next year you'll wish you were the turkey.

The only safe bet now is Smith & Wesson and ammunition futures.

America is doomed. Violence will replace Paris Hilton/Lindsay Lohan/Dead Smith as the national distraction from reality.

Mad MAX is HERE. the Fat is in the Fire. Bend over, grab your knees and squeel like a pig...

The strongest will survive. Everyone elsed dies.

Enjoy your last turkey. Gobble Gobble Gobble.

Yoski said...

The case for (some) US stocks
I agree that several sectors of the US economy are in deep sh!t. Escpecially housing, financials, consumer discretionary & auto.
Other sectors will do just fine as they have a lot of international exposure. Among those are mining (copper, coal, gold, silver, etc.), energy services, farming equipment, basic materials to name a few. If you look back in history, even during the Weimar Republic stock prices went up, almost enough to keep up with inflation. If you get out of the weak sectors and invest in the stronger ones your returns are bound to beat inflation and that's about the best you can do these days.
I am invested in stocks, bullion precious metal and good farm land near major cities (Raleigh-Durham, NC). Framland near Phoenix or Vegas sucks unless you're into growing tumble weed. Yes, real estate is still a good investment in some places. Farm land is dirt cheap and the carrying costs are minimal. Wait until the competition between ethanol and food production drives up the price.
Just my 2 cents

wc said...

I do feel a very sudden shift in the sentiment among people I encounter on a daily basis and I myself am starting to believe some of the hype but I would like to cling to some hope for the future.

I love diana olick said...

Did you guys see the broke carpenter on cnn who has has been liveing in a hole in the ground he carved out?I think he might be able to rent out hole space to broke and desperate realtors soon.

Back up the truck on gold.

Mammoth said...

Borkafatty,

Don't forget...
Seeds ---check

Anonymous said...

Oh Frank- check this out:

current foreclosures Newport Beach V. Scottsdale

as of 3 minutes ago:

NB - 201 active
Scottsdale - 206 active

but heres the problem 2000 census numbers have 70,000 ppl living in Newport Beach and 202,000 living in Scottsdale that tells me there are roughly 3 times the number of foreclosures per capita in your beloved city compared to mine- now i ask you who REALLY lives in the poser city of $30k millionaires? you smug douchebag!

Malcolm said...

Remember Friends: The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.

It’s obvious that the wave is nearly here. It’s no longer important to debate whether the event is going to happen. It’s happening now. For us it is to plan as best possible for the effects.

It’s going to get ugly. I don’t know if it’s going to get 1930’s depression ugly, or 1970’s oil embargo + inflation ugly. One is obviously much worse than the other, and will determine how long it will take for the nation to recover.

Even though I wholly accept that damage is done to the dollar in respect to other currencies, I think that we can nearly ignore this if we are planning as an American living in the US. The cost of electronics will go up, but you probably shouldn’t be buying luxuries at this time anyway. The exception to this is oil prices, which affects commute costs.

When the time comes, it’s going to come down to the following factors:
- Cash
- Recurring monthly expenses
- Liquidity of Assets
- Long term debt

Cash: Keep your cash in FDIC insured accounts. Do not invest in any fund or money market that is not insured. Keep some cash on hand, but not so much that you would be busted if someone robbed you.

Recurring monthly expenses: If you lost your job, and assuming no credit, how long could you last before running out of money? This is going to be the one that busts the most people. If you’re stuck in high total monthly payments, good luck. If you are debt-light, do NOT start any unnecessary debt. If you break an arm, get it fixed, but don’t be eyeing up the new 50” flat screens.

Liquidity of Assets: Don’t lock yourself into something you can’t get out of in a hurry. If you haven’t bought a home recently, don’t buy a home.

Long Term Debt: Not as important as your recurring expenses, but a big psyche-killer. If you’re stuck with large paper losses, take heart from the fact that at least one politically-connected person with a million dollar home is in the same boat as you.

But… the good news, in my opinion, is that it won’t result in a total disintegration of the national or world economies. Most of the world exercises a predictable self-preservation.

If it got so bad that America was at risk of defaulting on its dept, our debtors will sit down with us and work out a payment plan. It would be the only choice they were left with other than destroying themselves.

With the exception of those who will remain nameless, no one is interested in murdering the world.

Anonymous said...

U.S. Supreme Court to hear handgun case
_____________________________________
They will attempt to disarm the masses in anticipation of what's coming.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/11/21/america/21scotus.php

Anonymous said...

You might want to keep a shotgun and a box of shells close at hand. could get ugly when all the ATMS run out of cash.

Anonymous said...

Chill out man. The country survived the Great Depression and many bad recessions since then. There's no reason to jump off a bridge. I wouldn't mind seeing a few CEO's strung up by their testicles though.

tuxedo_junction said...

Keith's comments are over-dramatic but look what's happening in our credit-based economy.

1. Potential losses on home loans are from $200-$500 billion. What about auto loans, credit cards, junk bonds, and securitized corporated debt?

2. Major credit insurers have known solvency problems.

3. Money center banks had off-balance-sheet liabilities which they hid (the silent puts on SIV paper). They also continue to hide on-balance-sheet asset losses.

4. Freddie and Fannie have known insolvency problems. Freddie's hedges have gone awry; incurred net losses on both its assets and on the "protective" derivatives.

5. One institutional MMF has broken the buck and several MMF sponsors have pledged to make up losses.

6. Financial CP gets rolled whether the holders like it or not.

7. When was the last large LBO funded? The IBs for the Chrysler deal have given up and now will keep the unsold junk bonds.

8. While the dollar will eventually have a dead-cat bounce, nearly all of the investment world believes it will go much lower.

9. Short term Treasury yields are falling fast while the spread to bank CDs widens.

10. More and more states and municipalities are experiencing revenue declines.

I'm not saying to head for the hills with food, water, and ammo, but you should be extremely conservative with your investments. Stick to certain hard assets and short-term sovereign debt a good chunk of which should be foreign. Return of investment is more important than return on investment.

Anonymous said...

dude get a grip, have some turkey and for crying out loud stop sounding like a 13 year old girl who is convinced her life's over cuz Jimmy dumped her.

You need to stop being so over the top.

Edgar said...

France is on strike, the UK and USA are next. Whenever the people wake up that is, maybe never?

unomyname said...

Keeping some cash at home is probably a good idea - I know I have a few thou around. I'm sure some will say it's just stupid - risk of loss, no interest - you know the arguments. Still, with the financial system looking like it will soon be in need of a casket, I'll accept the down side. Oh - and PM's don't hurt either. In the end though, we'll all suffer to a greater or lesser extent. Good luck and happy Thanksgiving.

Anonymous said...

I was living in Los Angeles when the riots happened. It wasn't a pretty site and I could see many buildings on fire from my rooftop. It was total chaos.

The shady group and its puppet Congress and Senate are playing with fire (literally). Once the population gets out of control, it will be hard to contain. I hope that the fascists in control send Rambo wannabes from Blackwater on the streets, because I wanna see them get the a$$ kicked. The population needs to teach Blackwater and the neocons a good lesson.

There's a serious storm forming while the corrupt government ignores it, arrogant as usual.

There are many protests going on all over the country that the corrupt MSM refuses to show on TV.

We live in a fascist regime and the population eventually will get rid of these people.

Anonymous said...

.


The only thing not going down is honica.....which is unusual!


.

Anonymous said...

Freddie has not capital to loan, those funds is all that is holding the scaps up - Countrywide and all other mortgage banks are done.

Back to 30 yr fixed, %20 down, retail mortgages from your local banker that looks you in eye prior to makign the loan.

The way it should be.

Anonymous said...

As history has shown all empires finally fall and the final curtain is about to go down on The United States of Debtors.

It was a great run while it lasted but face it folks greed finally got the best of us.

The housing market, the credit markets, the dollar poof gone in the blink of an eye.

So let's all raise our glasses of kool-aid and make a toast to the good old days.

Anonymous said...

Wow wouldn't a stabilized market be great. All you guys do is cheer at collapsing housing prices and now are starting to notice that your cheering your own downfall. Kind of like the snake eating it's own tail.

Anonymous said...

guys... keith.

read this site.

a lot of news on the msm and how they are biased agains ronpaul

www.roguegovernment.com

NOVA said...

I just moved a sizable portion of my funds to cash....made great YTD profit (15% or so), but it's time to take in some profits. I don't think people should being taking money out of the banks. If we have that type mentality, we will just blow the system. Protect yourself, but do it in a non-paniced way. I'm still pretty diversified and you all should be too unless you are CONVINCED you know what's coming.

I don't know about you, but I don't know for sure where things are going. My bets are on a moderate to heavy recession, so I'd rather take in the profit now and limit losses. Pulling out completely may be hasty!

Anonymous said...

How will you protect yourself in Europe during the riots without the right to keep arms?

Anonymous said...

I can't believe this is really happening!

vegas crash watcher said...

If the Fed raises rates and the dollar continues to fall, then its a disaster, but I think the dollar will rise if the Fed raises.

The Mortgage Guy said...

Anonymous said...

Cow_tipping said...

In the early/mid 90's we had all of the same factors in play albeit in different quantities.
After a short duration of joblessness, most people went back to work in similar jobs, after a period of losing their houses, they rented or bought at lower prices, after a period od whatever ... they went back to the normalcy as it existed before the bubble and subsequent crash.
I dont anticipate much different. .com bubble popped and this will mimic that.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

November 21, 2007 10:17 PM<<


but in the early 90's there wasn't the spector of 400 to 700 trillion in worthless derivatives that people have bought, hanging around in space out there , off balance sheet of course....

November 21, 2007 10:34 PM


Back then the debt markets were healthy. You could borrow money. Now only the most credit worthy with cookie cutter characteristics can get credit on favorable terms.

My main market has been subprime and "alt a" for years. Now it doesn't exist. You can still get subprime done but you must prove income and ltv's have been cut back and fico requirements raised.

My clients spent money, they were the "consumers" who kept the economy going. There are millions like them and now none of these people can spend money.

The consumer, the life blood of the economy for the last decade, is dead. They just don't know it yet.

Mortgages were the safety valve for credit card balances. When they got too high, just cash out. That's not there anymore. It's only a matter of time before the consumer debt markets look like the mortgage market, ravaged by rising defaults.

The economy will grind to a halt when the consumer can no longer spend to keep it going.

With reduced consumer spending, layoffs will follow. There will be even less spending leading to a self feeding downward spiral.

Meanwhile it won't matter what the Fed does. It can lower fed funds rate to zero. Without efficiently running debt markets, it won't make any difference. There is no mechanism to get the cheap money into the economy without efficiently operating debt markets.

Face it, were screwed.

George L said...

Just because this "powerful" people at the top are sleaze bags, doesn't mean they are smart.remember the fact that they are driven by greed.and when driven by greed, one is bound to make mistakes.they are also humans, and by default not perfect.the elite are getting desperate and are resorting to desperate measures.remember the roman empire,the Germans and the Spaniards with their inquisition.they got more extreme as they were nearing their end.I'm actually looking forward to the next few years.how history will remember us a hundred years from now is up to us.Do not shrink from this challenge, welcome it....

Mad Mike said...

To understand who he was, you have to go back to another time when the world was powered by the black fuel and the deserts sprouted great cities of pipe and steel. Gone now swept away. For reasons long forgotten, two mighty warrior tribes went to war and touched off a blaze which engulfed them all.

Without fuel they were nothing. They built a house of straw. The thundering machines sputtered and stopped. Their leaders talked and talked and talked. But nothing could stem the avalanche. Their world crumbled. The cities exploded. A whirlwind of looting, a firestorm of fear. Men began to feed on men.

On the roads it was a white line nightmare. Only those mobile enough to scavenge, brutal enough to pillage would survive. The gangs took over the highways, ready to wage war for a tank of juice. And in this maelstrom of decay, ordinary men were battered and smashed.

Except for one man armed with an AK-47, and a Honda full of silver. In the roar of an engine, he lost everything and became a shell of a man, a burnt out, desolate man, a man haunted by the demons of his past. A man who wandered out into the wasteland. And it was here in this blighted place that he learned to live again.

Anonymous said...

Wow wouldn't a stabilized market be great. All you guys do is cheer at collapsing housing prices

A stabilized market would have been great 4 years ago. It's too late for that now. The REIC is the snake that ate its own tail out of greed.

Nimesh Patel said...

Keith and to all of the Doom and Gloom crowd; get a grip on yourself. I can not believe that people actually believe that the economy will get so bad that they will have to store food, live in a hole/bunker, keep their gun and ammo with them at all times, people will be homeless and there will be riots and lawless behavior in America. My God we may enter some rough time but the Doom and Gloom crowd has always in a way CHEERED for an economic catastrophe to hit our great land. Once again, your predictions of Gloom and Doom will NOT COME TRUE.

Freeluncher said...

Anonymous said...
What do you do if you're locked into a crappy Fidelity 401(K) with no option to buy treasuries? Just crappy mortgage exposed bonds and stocks. Woe is me.

Do an IRA rollover to Scottrade or TD Ameritrade, probally other brokerages you can choose.. just do not go to H&R Block or E*Trade - subprime exposure.. Once you have it rolled into these brokerages you have a wide choice of investment options including SKF, SRS ETFs or safe money markets not exposed to mortgage backed assets (crap). I lost nothing so far in November. My 401Ks despite the worst Novmeber in the Dow Jones since 98' or 92' (I forget) the S&P 500 is now up zero for the year. It is amazing aholes like ben stein like to spout off about long term and blindly pouring your hard earned $$ into collapsing sectors (financial/ banks) fuck that advice. You are better off listening to some hooker in Newark. Smart people are not always good investors. Nobody times anything perfect but there is still time and simple adjustments you can do to preserve 30-40% reductions to your investments. Basicly do the opposite of the cheerleaders on CNBC. Good luck - and don't be tricked by any small rallies and bounces.

freeluncher said...

I do not have the links but there are some recession indicators that are predicting a recession.

Non Residential capital spending - corporations spending on factories, software, trucks, equipment etc.. when this is below 0% (negative) compared to year over year a recession occurs. This indicator has not missed going back to the great depression. We are below zero now. You think the credit crunch is helping the capital expenditure? As Borat would say not so much. Also utility stocks have done well like they usually do before they tank with the rest of the market and the economy. But aholes like Denis Keale on CNBC think oil and inflation do not matter and the economy and fictitious labor data, bullshit GDP mean the ecomomy is strong.

I am not predicting armagedon but it could be a rough patch. Got Ramen?

Anonymous said...

I get a kick out of every poster that says we survived one great depression so we can survive another one. I guess my response to that is look at the changes in our society since that time. I think Katrina and the L.A riots illustrate this concept perfectly. Now imagine desperate and hungry people nationwide. This would easily overwhelm our emergency response plans and plunge us into chaos. Face it, the nanny state now rules. Beware the anry, unruly and uninhibited.

Anonymous said...

The living will envy the dead.

Happy Thanksgiving

Anonymous said...

I have no answer, but that's because I DIDN'T sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

Yoski said...

" It is amazing aholes like ben stein like to spout off about long term and blindly pouring your hard earned $$ into collapsing sectors (financial/ banks) fuck that advice. You are better off listening to some hooker in Newark. Smart people are not always good investors."
Ben Stein smart? I think you are confusing arrogance with smarts.

Anonymous said...

Nimesh Patel said...
Keith and to all of the Doom and Gloom crowd; get a grip on yourself. I can not believe that people actually believe that the economy will get so bad that they will have to store food, live in a hole/bunker, keep their gun and ammo with them at all times, people will be homeless and there will be riots and lawless behavior in America. My God we may enter some rough time but the Doom and Gloom crowd has always in a way CHEERED for an economic catastrophe to hit our great land. Once again, your predictions of Gloom and Doom will NOT COME TRUE.

November 22, 2007 6:53 AM


Good luck with that.

Anonymous said...

When you look at how the morals in America have fallen, and you think there won`t be riots for food and such, you are kidding yourself.

james said...

"Do an IRA rollover to Scottrade or TD Ameritrade, "

You cant. You cant remove the money from a 401k without penalties unless they close the fund, or you leave teh company.

Anonymous said...

To the anonomous poster:

You ARE DEAD, you just don't know it.
There is NO ENVY for us now.

Dying and Dead America

Anonymous said...

In the early/mid 90's we had all of the same factors in play albeit in different quantities.
After a short duration of joblessness, most people went back to work in similar jobs, after a period of losing their houses, they rented or bought at lower prices, after a period od whatever ... they went back to the normalcy as it existed before the bubble and subsequent crash.
I dont anticipate much different. .com bubble popped and this will mimic that.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

November 21, 2007 10:17 PM

Did it ever occur to you that the process of collapse from the mid 1990's is still in progress?
It has only picked steam.
There has never been any real prosperity in this country since 1966.

Anonymous said...

It is amazing that people think the US is a great nation.... Our government is a criminal organization and above any international law. People actually believe FOX NEWS... What a joke. Is the US a great nation because the government has been imposing its will upon other countries to keep its currency attractive? Or is the US a great nation because the population consumes 25 percent of the world's resources without contributing anything of value to the global economy? Maybe the US is a great nation because we can go to Walmart anytime, any day and contribute to child slavery throughout the world. Ah, maybe the US is a great nation because torture and shock is its modus operandi for social resructuring at home and abroad? Of course, the US is a great nation because Bill O'Reilly said so. Democracy builders... What a joke!!!

Anonymous said...

I think you should take into consideration the following factors.

Not every state is a bubble state. Yes there were several states that had extreme bubbles.

Next,
Not everyone took out money in home equity.

Next,
The stock market will probably keep going down for a while, however this will not lead to the destruction of the US economy.

Next,
The reason why the fed is able to bullshit inflation is because the higher price of oil and food has not been passed on to consumer goods yet. It will and then they will have no where to run. Interest rates will go up.

Next,
Cash is king, regardless of whether or not you have gold as a hedge. Furthermore getting out now is an EXTREME gamble sense it has already lost alot of its value. No offense I do realize that you were right on many of your predictions but becoming to bearish probably is dangerous keith.

Next,
If there is a rise to unemployment , oil prices, food prices people will not be able to spend money on Iphones.

Next,
Soaring oil will lead to new energy solutions.

Next
Mass unemployment will lead people out of the country which will help a mainly service based economy.

Next
Exports will continue to grow as the demand for american labor will increase sense we will basically be working for less money than we did before. This will help with unemployment. Yes the standard of living in the US will drop

Finally,
Housing will become affordable again.

The problem with this blog is not that we get labeled as doom and gloomers but some of the nonsense that I read.

You can still buy a house now without 20 percent down. And people think that the entire world is coming down, that we are living in fascism, and that we are about to begin the apocalypse. Will you please limit your predictions to some degree so you don't make us seem like TOTAL FREAKING CRACKPOTS.

And Keith its not OVER at all. Its just beginning its roller coaster ride. Who knows what the hell will happen, maybe people who stayed liquid will buy companies for half there value, maybe houses will be sold to retiring baby boomer's and they become landlords as values decline super low, maybe we withdraw from Iraq, maybe we get attacked by terrorists. Maybe congress passes laws on imports to encourage manufacturing.

Anonymous said...

lee says:

I am a bit late to the party, although I recognised the August crunch for what it was. I didn't own RE during the past 7 years, so I didn't pay as much attention - although I saw the irrational exuberance in 2006 prices disconnect from incomes and traditional basing models.

I have shorted the financials, put the rest into a mix of loonies, euros, gold and silver.

1st Inning was August. The genius money was short or out by March. (Jim Rogers). The smart money shorted by October.

But I still see many who haven't a clue how bad this will get - especially on the MSM. They are months behind the curve on this.

And the NAR is just delusional at this point.

We are only in the 1st inning of this, as next year through November will be one disastrous piece of financial news followed by another.

IOW there is money to be made shorting as few suspect how bad it will get. Wal l Street actually thinks the losses stated to date are all that will happen.

Anonymous said...

Nimesh Patel said...

Keith and to all of the Doom and Gloom crowd; get a grip on yourself. I can not believe that people actually believe that the economy will get so bad that they will have to store food, live in a hole/bunker, keep their gun and ammo with them at all times, people will be homeless and there will be riots and lawless behavior in America. My God we may enter some rough time but the Doom and Gloom crowd has always in a way CHEERED for an economic catastrophe to hit our great land. Once again, your predictions of Gloom and Doom will NOT COME TRUE.

November 22, 2007 6:53 AM<<

oh put a cork in it nimmy, we all want death and destruction??? give me a break....there is a difference between reality and wallowing in pitty....bitch up nimmy, hell is coming! whatcha gonna do about it?

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

I get a kick out of every poster that says we survived one great depression so we can survive another one. I guess my response to that is look at the changes in our society since that time. I think Katrina and the L.A riots illustrate this concept perfectly. Now imagine desperate and hungry people nationwide. This would easily overwhelm our emergency response plans and plunge us into chaos. Face it, the nanny state now rules. Beware the anry, unruly and uninhibited.

November 22, 2007 11:36 AM<<<


yeh , in 1929 , a lot of people lived on farms even then. they grew their own and raised their own and it helped them to survive the bad times which were brought on , by the present day paper money system we now have of cours. the people back then were much more resilient then the present day crop of goof ball amerikans. many of the dopey gen x and gen y types think that food comes from krogers. they have no idea of what farming is nor have they ever been on a farm. the only thing they can grow is their credit card debt and when the shtf, they will be running around trying to figure out where the next mouthfull will come from......

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

I get a kick out of every poster that says we survived one great depression so we can survive another one. I guess my response to that is look at the changes in our society since that time. I think Katrina and the L.A riots illustrate this concept perfectly. Now imagine desperate and hungry people nationwide. This would easily overwhelm our emergency response plans and plunge us into chaos. Face it, the nanny state now rules. Beware the anry, unruly and uninhibited.

November 22, 2007 11:36 AM<<<


yeh , in 1929 , a lot of people lived on farms even then. they grew their own and raised their own and it helped them to survive the bad times which were brought on , by the present day paper money system we now have of course. the people back then were much more resilient then the present day crop of goof ball amerikans. many of the dopey gen x and gen y types think that food comes from krogers. they have no idea of what farming is nor have they ever been on a farm. the only thing they can grow is their credit card debt and when the shtf, they will be running around trying to figure out where the next mouthfull will come from......

Anonymous said...

Wow wouldn't a stabilized market be great. All you guys do is cheer at collapsing housing prices and now are starting to notice that your cheering your own downfall. Kind of like the snake eating it's own tail.

If you knew a bit of History, you would understand that the black plague had a very positive outcome for Europe, as the serfs who survived gained power against the royals, due to the smaller pool of specialized labor. Incomes and wealth were democratically spread around which increase quality of life, as the serfs could stick to the top 1% who had previously taken advantage of everyone below them. The outcome of the black plague was so great that end up originating the prosperous period of the Renaissance.

Consider this forming depression as our black plague, as we'll be able to stick to the corporate fascists that run the country along with the shady groups.

Anonymous said...

is there something wrong with a 5o cent map that i need a 120 gps???????????

Anonymous said...

god and country....its fools like you dat get people killed.

Anonymous said...

with thousands of dollars a year to heat a slum row house??????????

king of the Bitter Renters said...

Wow, anon clicking his heels together. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN, click, click, click...

The moron who lives across the street IS America, the one I fear and detest. Blindly for Bush, he has TWO 52 inch HD screens in his livingroom, one for his video games. Done his steriod days and now trains guys for cage matches. Drives a 8mpg BMW coupe that he took instead of cash for a real estate deal. The only time he ever talked to me was when he was talking about investing in a paint bal farm 100 mile away.

WE are now a Nation of first person shooters

Anonymous said...

what is 1,000 trillion? aside from the world and not a reason for a new world order like an age reversing and cellular strengthing fountain of reyouth method of thousands of year lifespan.......???????????/

Anonymous said...

where am i gonna get the electric power to run my fusion smelter to produce glass ,plastic,cloth,synthetic wood and composite cloth and materials from common dirt. in my 2 bedroom apt.......more stuff? more baggage??? distilled methanol from sewer waters does not do the trick>>>> where are the gene splicers fast growing mass reproducing new flavors and foods...altho im a little like the monkey that does not like changes to his cage..and wake up wanting a butt not a banana while my robot sews that synthetic cloth into?????

Anonymous said...

The BIS also reported on the size of the global derivatives
market, which, it said, has increased by 35 percent in the 12
months ended in June, 2007, jumping from $454 trillion to $613
trillion. The over-the-counter (OTC) market accounted for $516
trillion of the total, while derivatives traded on exchanges
accounted for $97 trillion. These numbers should be taken with
large blocks of salt, since the sum total of all derivatives bets
is undoubtedly measured in quadrillions, and any attempt to
quantify the size of the market is foolish, since the bankers
themselves probably don't know, and any number you get will be
outdated before it is published, given the hyperbolic growth of
the derivatives market.

Anonymous said...

Whoever controls the volume of money in any country is absolute master of all industry and commerce." (Paul Warburg, drafter of the Federal Reserve Act)


starting to get the message yet? unless we control our own money, we will always be in debt, we will always have many problems, we will always have dishonesty at the highest levels......

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

Wow wouldn't a stabilized market be great. All you guys do is cheer at collapsing housing prices and now are starting to notice that your cheering your own downfall. Kind of like the snake eating it's own tail.

If you knew a bit of History, you would understand that the black plague had a very positive outcome for Europe, as the serfs who survived gained power against the royals, due to the smaller pool of specialized labor. Incomes and wealth were democratically spread around which increase quality of life, as the serfs could stick to the top 1% who had previously taken advantage of everyone below them. The outcome of the black plague was so great that end up originating the prosperous period of the Renaissance.

Consider this forming depression as our black plague, as we'll be able to stick to the corporate fascists that run the country along with the shady groups.

November 22, 2007 8:48 PM<<<

oh goody, are you saying that all the real estate agents , mortgage bankers, cdo salesmen and housing flippers are going to get sick and die??? cool.....

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

Wow wouldn't a stabilized market be great. All you guys do is cheer at collapsing housing prices and now are starting to notice that your cheering your own downfall. Kind of like the snake eating it's own tail.

November 22, 2007 3:12 AM<<<


shut up flipper, you will get yours too , good buddy....

Anonymous said...

Except for one man armed with an AK-47, and a Honda full of silver. In the roar of an engine, he lost everything and became a shell of a man, a burnt out, desolate man, a man haunted by the demons of his past. A man who wandered out into the wasteland. And it was here in this blighted place that he learned to live again.

November 22, 2007 6:24 AM<<<<

a honda full of junk silver??? oh my... be still by beating heart...

Anonymous said...

hard for the masses to freak out and have a mad max lifestyle with 300 million guns. too many people are armed and would not go along with crazy rioting. even the roman empire collapsed, the spanish empire, british empire...they all fall eventually. and, americas growing and growing debt is its achilles heal and someday our empire will be over unless we take steps to end this debt empire! It can be fixed!

Anonymous said...

One in six New Yorkers cannot afford enough food

Thu, 22 Nov 2007 12:19:18
At least 2 million New Yorkers are hungry
More than 1.3 million people, one in six New Yorkers, cannot afford enough food, with queues at soup kitchens getting longer steadily.

Today, at least two million New York City residents are currently hungry or at risk of going hungry. The New York City Coalition Against Hunger says the number of people who use food pantries and soup kitchens in the city increased by 20% in 2007.

They have to decide between paying the rent and putting food on their table, between accessing medical care and buying groceries, between eating healthy well-balanced meals or skipping meals in order to make their food last over a longer period of time.

The coalition blames the situation mainly on increased poverty as well as government cutbacks in food aid. According to a survey, 59% of New York's food programs, up from 48% last year, said they did not have enough resources to meet demand.

The US Department of Agriculture says 12.6 million households nationwide, or more than 30 million people - 10% of the population - did not have enough food at some point in 2006 in the United States.

Anonymous said...

Dunno about you people but a friend of mine works for a LARGE national trucking company (the 2 merged ) and he's been there 20 yrs ,he said its so slow they are sending over half their daily drivers home everyday...hes never seen it this bad in all his time there.....no thats scary ,because trucking is usually the first to see the slowdown, manufacturers can report their making stuff ..but OBVIOUSLY ITS NOT BEING SHIPPED..its CYOA time real soon

Anonymous said...

anonymous said...

The BIS also reported on the size of the global derivatives
market, which, it said, has increased by 35 percent in the 12
months ended in June, 2007, jumping from $454 trillion to $613
trillion. The over-the-counter (OTC) market accounted for $516
trillion of the total, while derivatives traded on exchanges
accounted for $97 trillion. These numbers should be taken with
large blocks of salt, since the sum total of all derivatives bets
is undoubtedly measured in quadrillions, and any attempt to
quantify the size of the market is foolish, since the bankers
themselves probably don't know, and any number you get will be
outdated before it is published, given the hyperbolic growth of
the derivatives market.

November 22, 2007 10:21 PM


this is the very reason why this time it is different. in 1929, we did not have derivatives. this time there will be no bail outs by any government much less the fed. how can this be? when we speak of trillions, there can be no coming back from this downfall. they have stolen the money from the baby boomers and they still don't even know it yet.

Anonymous said...

Anon said:"manufacturers can report their making stuff ..but OBVIOUSLY ITS NOT BEING SHIPPED..its CYOA time real soon"


Thanks for the bit of info on trucking. Is this merchandise in China waiting to be barged over, or is the merchandise already here in US Ports?

BTW, what does CYOA mean?

Anonymous said...

London stud-why?

Go to reportonbusiness.com
Read The Black Box Explodes..
It's about all the tie ins to
Canadian finance system because
of buying bundles of CDO's/SIV's
to make a quick buck, and them being
untradeable when their real value
which is both unknown and far less
than their sale price became a common fact. What is true in the Canadian system is true here, in
Europe, and elsewhere.

The financial system of the world
is ( I believe ruined) in question.
Prudenbear.com has article today
and yesterday that derivatives are
grinding to a halt, as well as these bundles. German banks have
been told to halt trade of some of these to stabilize the system.

Does that sound bad or what? The
global financial system thrives on
rapid turnover of paper...It is coming to a grinding halt...

As Viveca Fox says in Independence
Day: THAT'S WHY!

pkk (old lady)

Anonymous said...

Smitty,
I am 63, and had parents who were in
their second decade during the Great
Depression, and I had old grandparents born in the 1880's. So
they all lived through those years.
I always thought I had a better than
average perspective and in recent
years I realized I didn't get it,
really. I have come across anecdotal
information that would curl your hair.
IE: No shoes, clothes out of flour
sacks, a family living in a hole in the ground, baby delivered in chicken coop the parents lived in, premature enough to fit in shoe box
(my ob-gyn delivered it; it lived).
Almost starving (my Mom's family);
tarring and feathering for organizing (my grandfather); shortening on bread (England and here); bread and water, or bread and milk for dinner...kids farmed
out to family's because there was no money for orphans...kids running away and riding rails (family history)....It wasn't a blip on the screen...Picture the Russian families living crowded together in
The Saint (Val Kilmer), or kids living in basement, eating baloney
in Cinderella Man...
pkk

Anonymous said...

One of the things that doesn't get talked about here enough is the full effects of the increasing global money supply. Sure, printing fiat currency at an increasing rate causes inflation. Inflation in terms of CPI, but also in terms of financial assets. Right now there are just not enough financial assets and it is inflating prices; particularly stock and bond prices.

There has been much talk about a stock market crash, but I ask you where are people going to store their wealth now that real estate is crashing? Are they going to buy corp. bonds - no. Are they going to buy houses - no. Are they going to buy gold - Hell NO!. They are going to take their "clipped coins" and invest in large cap, well know, well followed stocks. The economy will recess, but the stock market could remain at/near the highs (except for financials, which are cooked) as measure by dollars during this whole credit bubble unwinding. An increasing money supply and depreciating dollar have other effects beyond financial holocaust.

pwnd

Anonymous said...

This is not the end of the world. Some of you act like all the money is going to disappear and we are all going to shrivel up and die. Work hard, don't spend more money than you have. The formula is pretty simple and it works.

Things are going to change. You will no longer be able to buy a house with no money down and poor credit.

Anonymous said...

"Monolines," the insurance companies that insure bonds, including mortgage back securities and municipal bonds now appear to be going under!!!!!!!!!!
Hold on to your hat this is quite a "perfect storm" in the making.

Anonymous said...

this is the very reason why this time it is different. in 1929, we did not have derivatives. this time there will be no bail outs by any government much less the fed. how can this be? when we speak of trillions, there can be no coming back from this downfall. they have stolen the money from the baby boomers and they still don't even know it yet.

November 23, 2007 1:30 AM

The incompetence of todays leaders (finance, government, education et.al) is just mind boggling.

Had they declared the system bankrupt back on October 19th, 1987instead of allowing these fraudulent derivatives to become hegemonic then we'd all be much safer today.

There is likely a quadrillion dollars of notional value derivatives in the bankrupt system.

Anonymous said...

BTW, what does CYOA mean?
November 23, 2007 2:59 PM

It means "Cover Your Own Ass".

Princess Mononoke said...

This is a GREAT read! Enjoy...

"WASHINGTON — As President Bush spoke about the state of the nation's economy recently in the century-old Grand Theater in New Albany, Ind., his words were as cheery as the vaudeville acts that once played there."

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-bushecon23nov23,0,3135723.story?coll=la-tot-national&track=ntothtml

Anonymous said...

"This is not the end of the world."

True! But it is going to be far worse than you and most of the sheeple have even imagined. If it was the end of the world you wouldn't have to live through what is coming. The end of the world is easier to bear than the slow grinding wreck we will experience.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

One in six New Yorkers cannot afford enough food

More than 1.3 million people, one in six New Yorkers, cannot afford enough food, with queues at soup kitchens getting longer steadily.

Today, at least two million New York City residents are currently hungry or at risk of going hungry. The New York City Coalition Against Hunger says the number of people who use food pantries and soup kitchens in the city increased by 20% in 2007.

=====================

That is total bullshit and you know it. 1.3 million people are not going hungry in NY. If they were they would leave and go somewhere cheaper to live.

These are the kinds of lies that the MSM throws out there without any checking. 2 million visits may have taken place at kitchens. That doesn't mean 2 million PEOPLE went there. If the same same 200,000 people go 10 times, there's your 2 million.

You are intellectually lazy or just plan stupid if you believe junk like this.

Anonymous said...

.

They have also found that many people can't afford food, but that they have T.V's, VCR's, microwaves, grillz and other various and asundry bling!


Cry me a river!

.

Anonymous said...

That is total bullshit and you know it. 1.3 million people are not going hungry in NY. If they were they would leave and go somewhere cheaper to live.

These are the kinds of lies that the MSM throws out there without any checking. 2 million visits may have taken place at kitchens. That doesn't mean 2 million PEOPLE went there. If the same same 200,000 people go 10 times, there's your 2 million.
================================
Youre intellectually lazy. The President of my company located in Jericho NY was involved with the homeless in and around the Long Island area. In just this area there was 10,000 individuals who were classified as homeless.

The US has been ravaged by the post industrial economy. The lower 80% income brackets are not even close to enjoying a living standard equal to what we had back in 1966.

Youre whistling past the grave yard.

Princess Mononoke said...

Anonymous said...
If the same same 200,000 people go 10 times, there's your 2 million.
November 24, 2007 3:26 PM

Yeah, but you have to admit... that's still 200,000 tooooo many people going hungry. Multiply that by every city in this country! And this is before the SHTF!

There are more than enough resources on this planet to feed every living being! NO one should go hungry.

Anonymous said...

Thoughts on this article? Good, bad, indifferent?


http://tinyurl.com/24bgco