November 24, 2007

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day


So was the housing crash the big topic of conversation at gatherings this Thanksgiving? Or was it the little 800 pound gorilla that nobody invited and everyone pretended wasn't there?

In England, it's definitely still "just don't talk about it, and maybe it'll go away" stage. Fear, but just below the surface.

66 comments:

Anonymous said...

That's gotta be dopes picture Keith!

Anonymous said...

Not a word about it! Usually it's their topic when I am in conversation with them too, since I have my own RE business(I did!) I spoke about it the day before thanksgiving with my immediate family since I was over there with them only. They don't get it!! They are weekly contrubuters to society and work their medial jobs and are generally happy go lucky poor family!!! They can't think like this for some reason!!!!

Anonymous said...

Is that guy in the picture from Los Angeles?

Anonymous said...

Is that Greg Swann?

GobbleBobble said...

Noone has a clue what is going on. So long as their credit cards keep going through, everything is perfect.

Anonymous said...

The majority of people in this country are still in denial about the housing crash. They have been conditioned all their lives to believe that houses never lose value and are always good investments so why expect them to believe otherwise. Houses are like commodities now to be bought and sold at the lowest prices like used cars but the sheeple still do not get it.

Anonymous said...

My Mom keeps on telling me I just be more optimistic.

Anonymous said...

You all must have very dense families. My family knows exactly what's going on as do my friends. They've known for a long time. Some aren't happy since they are fucked financially, but at least they understand what's happening.

Veronica Lodge said...

The deflating stock market, the housing crash and the illegal war in Iraq were all topics of NON-discussion.

V.L.

Anonymous said...

RE is pretty much the turd in the punch bowl. My father in law, a great guy with all his marbles but getting on in years, just decided, about 3 months ago, to move from the house that he was in (and owned free and clear) to another house, for what I would call trivial reasons. He and his wife have been retired a long time and have gotten used to the idea that they are NOT part of the economic food chain (like I am). They figured that they would take a temporary loan out to purchase the new house and the old house would sell right away. No such luck. They are worried. Every once in a while, they will say a thing or two like "I wish that it would sell" and if I would be inclined to say something like "lower the price and get rid of it right away" my wife makes a gesture at me to "cut the conversation". we simply did not discuss it.

Anonymous said...

"Noone has a clue what is going on. So long as their credit cards keep going through, everything is perfect."

What GobbleGobble said reminds me of what a close friend said to me one time while we were standing at an ATM waiting for him to get money out. He had not really worked full time in a while, being sick of the electronics industry, and I asked him how he was getting along, financially. He said,"well, I'll be ok", then he pointed to the $20 bill coming out of the ATM "as long as these yuppie food stamps keep coming out of the machine".

Anonymous said...

3 Mortgage Brokers in our family. We made a pact we wouldn't even bring up the subject on Thanksgiving. Lots of wine flowin. Nice to have a break from all the madness.

LauraVella said...

On Thanksgiving my SIL mentioned the houses in Sacramento are a good price! Of course I disagreed. They rent too, but don't understand the magnitude of what's going on and how it's affecting RE prices.

If I could read her mind, I would say she thinks I'm nuts. The funny thing is, 1 1/2 years ago her and her husband said the RE prices in Rocklin area won't drop more than 20%...well, it's much lower than that now.

My husband says, they should thank us, that we talked them out of buying...but they never will. That's how human nature works.

Still, both my SIL & BIL want to buy a house so bad they can taste it. My SIL keeps looking at homes on line in different areas-(including mine)
She is obsessed with wanting to paint walls the typical Potty Barn "tan" and buy SS appliances & granite counters and to say she "owns"...

Not me, I love my off-white walls and no maintance costs.

doggy style said...

People are still in shock that home prices actually fall.the Theeple believe what realtors aka jobless bartendars tell them.

People are so clueless out there it is unreal.Shopping is all they care about.scoreing a free dvd player at walmart is what they care about.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, where the heck has DOPES gone? The stock market hasn't even crashed yet, but he's been quiet as a door mouse.

Anonymous said...

Mass psychology plays a role here. We know something unpleasant is on the way, but we really don't want to deal with it.

Polls show most people think that as a nation we are headed down the wrong track. We might call these people the middile class, not just for economic reasons, but because they try to play by the rules and they show loyalty and affinity to political and religious beliefs. Most try to feather their own nests and, if asked, a good portion will say that their situation is fine. This dichotomy between what they sense in the "big picture" and what is happening in their personal lives causes subliminal anxiety. Excess debt adds another layer of anxiety and fear for many.

The losers and criminals in society have other reasons for their anger, but it still adds to the collective tension. This class sees life as a day to day struggle with highs and lows. Even though they have no long term goals or plans, they become disturbed when the ratio of highs/lows diminishes. Large cities with significant populations of these people are tinder boxes.

The wealthy and political elites are fully aware of the brewing tensions in our economy and society. Many have taken advantage of these imbalances to increase their wealth and power base. They have made detailed plans to survive when the tipping point comes.

Here is the danger, and it has played out many times and in different places over history. When the tipping point comes we will have a period of economic and political chaos. The law-abiding middle class will demand and empower a "strong" leader to put down the rioting losers and criminals, and the wealthy will simply escape the mess. We will have a police state that will evolve into corrpt tyranny over time.

Malcolm said...

I’m lucky, you can’t get three of us in a room without the conversation moving to politics.

Our main conversation was about how the Republican are screwing away our rights, how the democrats, elected to act as a check for the administration, rolled over and screwed us by doing nothing.

Then we talked about the Tea Party, and how Ron Paul (whether you want him as President or not), is still the best way to send a message to the pols of both parties.

Anonymous said...

I like the analogy 'turd-in-a-hot-tub', when I hear it I think of the American Way, George Bush and Family and the illegitamate US Government.

Turd-in-a-hot-tub. Yep that's America to me.

Anonymous said...

Lots of anecdotal talk about sales crashing in Utah and Phoenix from people who live there.

Anonymous said...

.


honica's grde school photo!

Never made it to high school!

A proud graduate of Edutec!

.

Anonymous said...

Ughh not ron paul again. Please for the love of man shut up about that wackjob.

Anonymous said...

I didn't think you communist filth celebrated Thanksgiving.

tuxedo_junction said...

Spoke to a young, painting contractor who also "fixed up" old houses and resold them. Without me bringing up the housing market he mentioned that he's living in his current house because he failed to flip it. It's 80 years old and he did cosmetic work only. Now he plans to do major work and rent out the place for a couple of years. This is in Birmingham, AL.

Anonymous said...

No mention of the HP situation at all. All we talked about was BS like how full of **** some people who did not attend are, how their kids are annoying, how cheap they are, etc....

Gossip ruled and I was disgusted. If the weather was warm I would have gone to the garage and started some kind of project to have some peace and quiet.

Anonymous said...

I told my family to prepare for a recession. They finally believe me after seeing that my predictions on the housing crash came true.

Ben said...

Eugene, Oregon. The women didn't want to talk about it much. But my two brother in laws (both very blue collar) are quite aware ... before I could say anything, one BIL says, "Home prices are gonna drop for at least eight years"... the other one said, "Glad I have savings, since hardly anyone else does... there's gonna be bargains to be had" ..
Neither BIL has any debt.. they both have paid for homes, one is retired. They live life very frugally. They are not like most 'Real Americans'... I didn't have to say much at all.
But everyone else up in Portland is still in denial. Homes languishing for sale, but no one dropping prices because 'things are different here'.
Can't wait for the crash.
Got popcorn?

Anonymous said...

87% of homeowners have owned their home more than five years. 67% more than 10 years. I am in the latter and for this I am thankful. Those that bought late or in boomtown areas probably ate bologna sandwiches for T-day.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

Two Thanksgiving gatherings this year:

First was in Scottsdale, in a house that peaked at $1.5M in 2005, yet the owner kept bragging to us that he could get $3M for it anytime he wanted to sell ... LOL ... Scottsdale is in major denial

Second was here in Orange County. Hosting this year was a relative who owns two houses he's had on the market for over a year and cannot get rid of. The attitude in CA is partial denial - they admit there's a crash but believe we've bottomed out. NOT!

Anonymous said...

this thanksgiving my in-laws never opened their mouth a single bit about housing market. 3 years ago at thanksgiving day, they were all gathered in one corner and talk nothing but their how their equity rose every month.

i tried to open up a topic about housing and they either change the topic or walk away. he who laughs last laughs best.

Artur from Chicago said...

If there is sooooo many people out there that do not see the problem with current pricing, do not believe that the prices are going down and are so "ignorant and stupid" than why are they not buying those properties?!?

Malcolm said...

>Anonymous said...
>Ughh not ron paul again. Please >for the love of man shut up about >that wackjob.
>November 24, 2007 5:39 PM

Don’t misunderstand, I’m not nuts.

It’s not hero worship, I don’t think the sun shines out of his a*s; I don’t even agree with many of his policies.

But, he’s the only one talking about several important issues in the country.

Kind of reminds me of another nut job. He ran for president on the platform “don’t support NAFTA, it’s a deal with the devil.”

Good think our legitimate politicians where there to laugh him off the scene. Otherwise, we wouldn’t be enjoying the peace of mind that comes from a strong stable American economy.

Anonymous said...

.




Q: How many realtors does it take to sell a house?




.

Anonymous said...

.



A: No one knows, nobodies buying!



.

Anonymous said...

Ughh not ron paul again. Please for the love of man shut up about that wackjob.

---

Silly man, don't you know this site has become a front for Ron Paul '08?

Anonymous said...

As much as I disagree with the wild anti-Ameican socialist rants from KEEFER, I gotta give him kudos. Kudos for allowing a dissenting point of view. Refreshing to see this as opposed to oh I dunno that Ben Jones guy who only allows yes men to post.

DollarDeath said...

Dear Anon above,

Whats not to love about RON PAUL?
Personally, I can't get enough RON PAUL.
The only thing better than RON PAUL, is
a RON PAUL/DENIS KUCINICH ticket!

-DD

Princess Mononoke said...

I had a great family get together. Not one mention of the economic mayhem. Although, I could see and feel the questions in their eyes. We lightly touched on other global crisis (ie; oil spills, global warming, etc.). Then watch the movie, "Ratatoille"! Can't get any better than that...

Princess Mononoke said...

I forgot to mention that the branch of the family that told me I was full of $hit and crazy has broken off. They haven't talk to me or the rest of the family for the past 3 mos. I have no idea what is going through their minds now that the MSMs are confirming what I had been telling them all along! But I guess their silence speaks volumes...

I was with the branch of the family that stay's together through thick and thin.

Anonymous said...

Greg Swann probably talked about how Phoenix was coming out of its slump

Anonymous said...

I can't talk to my relatives about this stuff because they are clueless.

However, my family noticed that the resort area where we live at was extremely empty, and my neighbors from the Northeast didn't show up to spend the usual 2 weeks vacation during Thanksgiving.

Something is up out there, because the slow down of tourists and second homedebtors on the beach was evident this year. Must be because some of these second homedebtors, get this, have to pay $17,000 in property taxes alone by the end of the month, for a 2 bed condo built in the 60s.

Your Jewish Master said...

Anon 9:21
"Silly man, don't you know this site has become a front for Ron Paul '08?"

Sure, that's why you're allowed to post THAT!

Anonymous said...


Kind of reminds me of another nut job. He ran for president on the platform “don’t support NAFTA, it’s a deal with the devil.”


What are you talking about? We got rid of our low paying manufacturing jobs and replaced them with great jobs selling crap mortgage paper to the world. We now have more lawyers and waiters and other service jobs. Who would want to by manufacturing computers, semiconductors or airplanes when they could be flipping burgers or houses? Flipping houses is how you create wealth and build a solid economy.

Princess Mononoke said...

Anonymous said...
>>I didn't think you communist filth celebrated Thanksgiving.
November 24, 2007 5:47 PM

Come on get real! If we were communist then Keith would be censoring the posted comments. It is an OPEN forum for all points of view.

It's amazing to me that there are STILL people/groups that have the audacity to call anyone opposed to the status quo a "communist".

Anonymous said...

Refreshing to see this as opposed to oh I dunno that Ben Jones guy who only allows yes men to post.

I couldn't agree with you more. There are some tools on Ben's blog that think they are hot sh!t, like that idiot who moved from Ohio and bought a house in West Palm Beach at bubble's peak, who tries to convince himself and everybody else that he did an amazing deal. Another stupidity from that tool is that he defends the idea that cost of living in Florida is cheap. Don't get me started on that other pathetic trader chic who thinks that she's happening. Just another classic case of an oriental looking for an American sugar daddy.

Lady Di said...

I spent part of Thanksgiving talking my cousin out of buying a house in Denver, Colorado. He was on board by the end of our conversation. Whew - another potential victim saved.

I spent the rest of my Thanksgiving moving my 42 year old sister back to my parent's house. She can no longer afford the payments on her condo, and cannot sell it for anywhere near what she owes, so it is back home for the next few years while she rents it out.

For me, it is hard not to talk about the real estate downturn if only for the purpose of getting people into reality so they can save themselves or avoid financial disaster.

Anonymous said...

I didn't think you communist filth celebrated Thanksgiving.

Don't forget to buy your crucifix made in China by slave child labor, "very religious-conservative-family values-public bathroom pervert- Christian Republican".

After all, you gotta use it to pray for the housing market to bottom.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

I'd contribute to Ron Paul except that he wants to spend no money on defense.

China and N Korea are building missiles that can reach us here on the west coast and this guy wants to scrap all plans for a missile defense system? Sorry but *that* reeks of denial!!

SeattleMoose said...

Here in Seattle it is still "its different here"....

Anonymous said...

Anon 12.54 PM:
Is that Greg Swann?

--> Don't insult the gorilla...

devestment said...

Enjoy your freedom of speech till Hillary takes it away for your own good.

Gway Lau said...

Keith,
Anonopussy here, reporting live from Beijing. Completely OT but I thought other HP'ers might enjoy knowing that every block has one or two storefront Realtstores with the single page property ads filling up the window. If you pause to read an ad for more than 10 seconds a mob of 15 people come out and surround you. I think they go through the same sales training course that the american sales people do because they keep trying to get you to come inside. There are times when it helps to be a white guy pretending he can't understand chinese and this is definitely one of them.

Cheers!

Anonymous said...

China and N Korea are building missiles that can reach us here on the west coast and this guy wants to scrap all plans for a missile defense system?

Wanh wanh wanh wanh.

China has had missiles that can reach the West and East coasts for a long while now. Like decades.

If you can launch a manned orbiting spacecraft (like China did), you can launch a missile warhead wherever you want. An ICBM is an orbiter whose orbit just happens to intersect the Earth. Gravitationally and technologically it's not much different.

North Korea needs to master the flush toilet.

I think Paul is a nutter---but I really loathe even more the "you're a wuss/you're a commie/you're a terrorist lover" high-school gym-rat crap they lay on him and anybody else who stands up to the stupidity and lies of the GOP military-contractor complex.

Paul is an honest and incorruptible nutter, not a sleazy manipulative aggressive warmongering police-statist like Il Rudi. Or ibid, but lite and in pink.

pennywise said...

Here in Bakersfield, CA I had a very nice uncomfortable-silence-free dinner with family. Out here denial is pretty much impossible anyways. We are ground zero. About 1 in 20 homes up the neighborhood are listed or abandoned. From our dinner table we could clearly view an abandoned/forclosed house across the street (which we also found out was owned by a bankrupt subprime lender). How could you not talk about that? Surprisingly however, most of the talk was very positive; the recession will be a cleansing, America will wake up smarter, the media is finally paying attention, the Operation Iraqi Freedom stickers have all disapeered, ect.

Lost Cause said...

Someone was handing out cards for a mortgage rescue scam. Luckily, my answer was "No, I don't have a mortgage."

Anonymous said...

DollarDeath said...
Dear Anon above,

Whats not to love about RON PAUL?
Personally, I can't get enough RON PAUL.
The only thing better than RON PAUL, is
a RON PAUL/DENIS KUCINICH ticket!

-DD


=======

I would commit suicide on election night if that were to ever happen.

Your Jewish Master said...

"China has had missiles that can reach the West and East coasts for a long while now. Like decades."

Wow, way to expose your complete ignorance. You should check on when and how China got their ICBM technology.

Anonymous said...

We hosted the in-laws, who are currently underwater on two peak purchases: one 1m aging ranch in Suburban DC and one crap box 400k TH in Orlando. Two overpriced purchases in two bubblicious markets: they are w-a-a-a-a-y in denial.

They asked my wife why we haven't bought this 200K - 600 sqft, 1 bdrm - basement condo down the street from our apartment(that btw has been for sale at least since the spring.) Our place is three times bigger, on the second floor and comes with big windows, 2 bdrms, a dining room, a bonus room, a large pantry, a garage space--and costs the same!

They don't seems to get that a house is a place to live and is worth whatever someone will pay you for it.

Anonymous said...

Keith, sorry but considering your previous work with pictures you could have done better with a Thanksgiving pic.

Like perhaps someone getting hit on the head with a drumstick or something.

freeluncher said...

My family knows about the crash. We sold the family farm at the end of 2006 to a home builder. Spring 2007 they were suppossed to break ground on the 60+ acre housing development. Nothing has been touched and the builder is stuck with the idle land. We know we sold near the top and are gratefull.

My family has reduced exposure to the stock market. We believe a recession is coming.

My family talks about a lot of other things as well.

I think in general a lot of people are not interested in the economy, financial markets, real estate and investments. These are the people who generally make the bad decisions. Of course they are interested in making money. These are the bag holders and dopes who bought McMansions in bubble areas and are loading up at these levels on RIMM, Apple, and Google stock.

AmazingRuss said...

Relatives totally on board...I was surprised. I didn't credit them with that level of awareness. But then, all of them drive past miles and miles of empty subdivisions going to work, so I guess there's no escaping it.

I saw a metric buttload of subdivision billboards traveling...allmost ALL the billboards, in fact. Smarmy taglines "Come dwell in in The Boxes at Buttfuck Ranch" and such.

Saw a few with phone numbers to report people stealing copper wire out of empty houses....which kind of set me back. Ripping wire out of a house is WORK, and copper is high, but not THAT high! Are thieves even feeling the pinch?

Anonymous said...

freeluncher,
I'd love to hear the area of the country you are referring to. This goes for everyone else, just the general area.

Anonymous said...

I think Paul is a nutter---but I really loathe even more the "you're a wuss/you're a commie/you're a terrorist lover" high-school gym-rat crap they lay on him and anybody else who stands up to the stupidity and lies of the GOP military-contractor complex.

Paul is an honest and incorruptible nutter, not a sleazy manipulative aggressive warmongering police-statist like Il Rudi. Or ibid, but lite and in pink.

================

Ron Paul isn't a commie or a terrorist. He does however favor a foreign policy where terrorists and communists would be dealt with in a manner that is downright suicidal for this country.

So yes he is a nutter as you say. And anyone who supports him is either a nutter or on crack.

Anonymous said...

Spent T-day with my folks...they are totally on board with what's going on. Back in July when the market started going south, i explained to them the problem with the housing market..subprime, alt-a, option arms, cdo's, tranches, etc. they kind of understood what i was talking about and seemed to agree with me that trouble was ahead. over the holiday, they coulnd't stop talking about how screwed we are! whatever details they didn't understand in july, they certainly understand now. they know that there's 1 trillion dollars or more of those toxic loans out there and that there will be losses galore when everything has to be marked to market. we all agreed however, the paulson, congress, fed, white house, i-banks, ratings agencies are all in cahoots now to try to slowly unwind the damage...but we also all agree that it's pretty much hopeless and that we're still going into recession and millions of people are gonna be hosed. we decided this thing is too big for anything to stop it...perhaps, it can be slowed a bit and made less painful than if the fincial firms were forced to mark to market all at once, but at the end of the day it's going to unwind and hit very hard.

batten down the hatches!

a.creampuff said...

It came up. Was at brother's place. His thrift-conscious family lives a well on a fairly modest income (he just got promoted, so that's changing for the better). They put a prefab sun room extension onto their house instead of buying a new place. Mom and I couldn't get over what a difference it made and how nice it was. That's now the dining room, so they used it for Thanksgiving.
My family is generally aware, and for assorted reasons, immune.

wiserenter said...

Anonymous said...
DollarDeath said...
Dear Anon above,

Whats not to love about RON PAUL?
Personally, I can't get enough RON PAUL.
The only thing better than RON PAUL, is
a RON PAUL/DENIS KUCINICH ticket!

-DD


=======

I would commit suicide on election night if that were to ever happen.

November 25, 2007 2:06 PM


Good! Please tell every other neo-con ignoramus to do the same. The more of you the world is rid of, the better!

Anonymous said...

No mention of housing at all at my daughters home.

We = owe 9 more years, and I'm getting rid of that pronto. Lived here almost 21 ... where did that time go?

In-laws. Own their home and their retirement home outright.

Even my kid, she bought 1 year ago. It's a mini mcmansion, but still, it is going to be her only home, just like the rest of us. She got a good price, a lot of freebies, extra large lot, free sunroom, jacuzzi, upgrades galore and a fieldstone front. The house is awesome and a perfect size for her family of 3 growing boys (ok 4 if you count my SIL). And thanks to me, I begged and wheedled her into taking a fixed rate. She did listen to Mom for a change, and she's happy she did.

So - we are all in our nests to feather, not our nest eggs.

And the turkey was fabulous.