November 05, 2007

HousingPANIC is two years old today. From "flying monkey" and "brown shirt" voices in the wilderness to "damn, those guys sure got it right"

Two years ago, it was "there is no housing or credit bubble - you're all a bunch of wackos", "Bubbles are for bathtubs", Chicken Little may wail", and "Are you missing the real estate boom?".

And now?

Housing market in the early days of a historic implosion after the biggest credit and real estate bubble in recorded human history

Dollar in freefall

Gold at $800

Oil at $100

Banks and Lenders going belly up, firing their CEOs, being sued, and under investigation

Lazy MSM switching from "can't miss with housing" fluff pieces quoting realtors to "you're better off renting" articles quoting Peter Schiff

Housing cheerleaders like David Lereah, Lawrence Yun, Nicholas Retsinas, Greg Swann, Mike Norman, Kendra Todd and Blanche Evans laughed at, mocked, and fully and forever discredited

Homebuilders destroyed

Illegals going home

Bush seen as the worst president ever, Greenspan seen as the incompetent who caused this mess

Permanent destruction of the mortgage broker and realtor professions

Congressional REIC investigations

It's been a fun ride so far HP'ers. Two years, 6 million views and nearly 4,000 posts later. Some days I feel our work is done, other days I think it's just getting started.

HP is a volunteer effort, and a gift to future generations who one day will again be able to save up a modest down payment, buy a home (without a realtor on commission) that they can comfortably afford, and treat their house as a home, not as a lottery ticket, and not as an ATM.

The REIC hates us, as we've helped expose the scam, and we're costing them commissions. So be it. But the people have a voice now, thanks to the bubble blogs, and the days of unchecked realtor disinformation are over. Even if the MSM doesn't do their job, we will.

Cheers to you all for participating and reading. Screw the housing bubble, and screw the REIC! Now let's get this crash over with so we can move on.

69 comments: said...

Permanent destruction of the mortgage broker and realtor professions

That is the best news of all - your time here is well spent if we can realize that outcome.

Anonymous said...

Happy 2nd to you Keith. It's been fun.

Anonymous said...

Happy Birthday!

thank you

Anonymous said...

It's been a joy and an honor to have this blog as my home page. You've nailed it from day one Kieth and ultimatly ya saved me from making a big financial error. Rock on baby!

Anonymous said...

Although I hate Americans for their criminal ways of oppressing third world nations, selling toxic products around the world to unsuspecting, polluting the world etc. etc. I make one exception and that is you.
Keep up your good work.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Keith,

You're blog was and is instrumental in taking me from Sheeple to informed. I sold my bubbly Metro DC condo just before the 05 peak. Thought I was being smart starting a new job and life in a small city. I closed on 31 Oct 05 on my posh new luxury riverfront townhome which was really an overpriced soon to be failed attempt at ghetto rehabilitation. In a year I realized I was lied to by the RE agents about the project and its future I came across this blog and realized that if I wanted to save my skin I needed to just dump this overpriced luxury ghetto townhome and was my hands of housing for several years. I drama priced, and found a GF who thought they were getting a deal and getting in on the ground floor of a development that would pay off big time in terms of price appreciation based equity once the plan was done. I closed the sale on 8 Nov 06, after just one year of ownership and losing 60k. Since then I have rented and monitored my old 'hood plan. They now have several emminent domain law suits, the developer built tons of condos on spec that now sit empty. The retail is anemic and only attracting beggers and criminals. There is always 10% of the units up for resale!!! Several have NEVER been occupied. The city has jacked up the assessments, the developer cut corners that is now triggering special assessments by the HOA (no law suits against the developer because the developer is the HOA!!!). The sheeple flippers make minor 5-10k cuts from time to time and then give up becoming flop lords renting them out at levels that do not cover carrying costs!!!

Me, I've recently moved into a much nicer TH at a rock bottom rent from a pre-bubble owner that missed cashing in because she was emotionally attached to the home. I've managed to hold on to some of the faux money profits from my condo sale, I am debt free and I am in biking distance to work.

I find it ironic that on the birth of your site I was entering the final stage of being a sheeple, then on your first anniversary I was much more learned and taking my medicine. Now on your 2nd anniversary I am renting below market from an FB and waiting it out for the unwinding. But for your site I would have held on to the ghetto crapbox, throwing my money away and dealing with tons of stress each day as a fliptard/floplord by circumstances doing my best to ignore and rationalize away all the reality that is unfolding before me. Instead I welcome this coming recession and unwinding knowing that it is what we need to right this economy and society that has gone haywire this last decade.

Thanks Keith!!

Brenda said...

I remember the first time I stumbled upon HP. I googled "housing bubble burst" desperately trying to make sense out of what I was perceiving and there it was. I was so relieved because I realized there were others like me with the same concerns as I did and we could discuss them. Thanks Keith and fellow HP'ers, it's nice to know that there is one place to click onto where you can look at facts in a world of nothing but spin and lies and still come to sound conclusions. Happy 2nd Birthday!

concerned said...

Well done Keith.

I hope you'll be here for the whole ride (down).

bickerer said...

Laughed into my coffee cup this morning when seeing that picture. Almost had a cleanup job to do.

Thanks Keith.

a.creampuff said...

This rollicking, democratic (small 'd', for you Bush fans out there), hyperbolic, don't-know-whether-to-laugh-or-cry (usually both) blog is exhibit A of how blogs can be ahead of the mainstream media, and how it is possible, through contributions from all over the country and world, to build up a picture of what is really going on. Remember the old days when the main news sources were Time (still waiting on that cover), CBS, and the local paper? Wouldn't it be interesting to see a comparative timeline of what one would know about housing give different sources? Blogs are like a new window on the world (no pun intended.
I don't want to see professional journalism die (blogs, including HP, routinely break the rules the pros hopefully follow). I even subscribe to the newspaper. But blogs are a great supplemental source, not to mention a place to vent, laugh, and commisserate. Keep it up, Keith, ya DOPE!

Sincerely, and ready to move on if not in,

A real 4BR 2.5 BA, gar., remldld kit w/granite countertops & dispsl, FP, W/D, 1.5 acre lot, walkout bsmnt, must-see American Creampuff!!!

Anonymous said...

Yeah but you're still wrong and a chicken little...

[Several seconds of silence... the sound of shoes on pavement like when Homer Simpson takes flight from an awkward situation].

Norwegian Bloke said...

I think blogs like these are hugely important for democracy and the future of our world.

There is so much disinformation and poor analysis out there, and i has to be exposed.

Keep up the good work!

Anonymous said...

Well, I went to a strip club this weekend and had a few dances with a woman in a recent edition of Hustler. What's her day job? Realtor.

FMW said...

Happy Birthday HP from an original alumni!

Suzanne said...

You'll be hearing from my attourney.

Hate, ya. Researched it -


Anonymous said...

Keith, Congratulations on your two-year anniversary. You are always entertaining to read, and of course you have been correct (if early) on most of your predictions.

Now it looks like your job to monitor the misery of those with a monetary hangover:

Failed flippers, HELOC/ATM/ARM abusers, hedge funds, banks, realtors, borkers, and ABS insureres.

You might also need to watch the "collateral damage" to service economy jobs (poodle grooming, hair stylist, tanning salon, gyms, juice and coffee bars).

Also it would provide balance if you monitor a resurgence (if the day ever arrives) in real-economy jobs.

consultant said...


You did your job, and you did it well. I'm not saying you should shut it down, but I know this is a lot of work.
There is an awful lot of collateral damage that is going to come from this epic meltdown. It will take you away from the housing focus. Don't know if you want to get into that stuff.
Anyway, as long as you are postin', I'm readin'.

Anonymous said...

Great job with this blog, Keith. I've learned a lot between this one and Ben's and thankfully am not in a position to sustain harm from the realtor lies, half-truths, scams and misinformation/disinformation. Keep up the great work!

anony wimps sans screenames said...

Congrats, Keith.

You and your fellow bloggers helped convince me I was right in the early bubble days.

Just as importantly, it helped my wife understand what was going on and that I wasn't just a kook for not buying a house as the peak of the biggest housing bubble in the history of America.

Keep up the good work, Keith.

(BTW you're wrong about the hyperinflation, sorry)

Shakster said...

2yearr old ,and a monster blog already.Way to go Kieth.It's been fascinating to watch this blog ,and a few others gain traction.While the others go for the "civilized" format,and a disingenuous facade ,HP let it all hang out.Lesson's learned.

SPECTRE of Deflation said...

Nov. 5th [today] is push day for donations to Ron Paul. Made my donation my first priority this AM. Sick of the corruption and greed from the elites? Give to Paul like the survival of America is at stake. Make the MSM recognize Ron Paul!!!!!!!!!!

Keith, great job bro on spreading the message of truth and justice for the last 2 years. There are still patriots who care about America! You are one of those folks!!

wc said...

Keith - I read your blog so often I'm sure my husband thinks I'm having an online affair. I even quote you at the dinner table. Keep up the excellent work! Should be time for the European meltdown pretty soon.

Anonymous said...

Congratulations on 2 years!

Agreed, Bush dumbest, clumbsiest most inarticulate and WORST PRESIDENT EVER.

Disagree: Illegals going home. Not happening. Maybe when the US Depression finally gets rolling (soon, very soon) Mexico places will look better than the US. For now however, we are still stuck with the illegal alien invading hordes from hell. Nothing short of a bounty on them or political resolve (never happen) will voluntarily eradicate these felons from the land.

Happy Birthday and many more healthy days ahead for the blog.

Anonymous said...

Happy Birthday Keith. I love this forum. Why don't you start another blog called Dollar Panic and we'll track how long it takes until Paulson shuts you down.

Anonymous said...

Awesome job Keith!

Snowden said...

Read it and laugh, the dam is finally giving way....

Ohio Cities Buying Up Foreclosed Homes For $1 Each

POSTED: 6:37 pm EST November 4, 2007

TALLMADGE, Ohio -- Under a U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development program, cities in Ohio may buy unsold foreclosed homes for $1 each.

Through the program, any foreclosed home that HUD has unsuccessfully listed for sale for longer than six months is available for city purchase.

The city of Tallmadge, in suburban Akron, is hoping to buy at least one house as part of their efforts against the rising tide of abandoned homes in the city.

HUD advertises the Dollar Homes program as a way for communities to repair empty houses and resell them to help revitalize neighborhoods, but Tallmadge has a different plan.

City officials say they likely will tear down the house, sell the land and put the sale proceeds into the city's historic preservation programs.

Copyright 2007 by The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

LauraVella said...

Thanks Keith!

I always have enjoyed your blog.

My husband and I both knew there was something wrong many years ago, but couldnt find any resources to support it until I came across your website.

Thanks for all the dilligence and courage to post news for people who are searching for answers and are struggling with presure to buy from the Nar and family members.

Hope to see HP around for awhile - it's been fun seeing your threads come true.

Anonymous said...

"I hate Americans for their criminal ways of oppressing third world nations, selling toxic products around the world to unsuspecting, polluting the world etc."

Dude, the Chinese have us killed...

Keyser Soze said...

Happy Birthday, Keith!
Has that Phoenix realtor dude committed suicide yet?

Veronica Lodge said...

RE: HP is two years old!

Yes indeed. Once scoffed at, Housing Panic's tales from the dark side no longer look like Twilight Zone episodes.

How about some really bad predictions to go along with those already mentioned:

There goes the capital inflows which have funded our profligacy. They're gone, and not coming back. Mr. Bernanke and Mr. Paulson are busy destroying the dollar with interest-rate cuts, fueling runaway inflation as they flail mightily to save their banking buddies--but they can't succeed. Making more debt available to bankrupt entities, be they investment bankers or homeowners, solves nothing. It's called "putting good money after bad," and it simply guarantees ever-larger losses.

Allow me to sum it up: the money's lost, folks. You can't borrow more and pretend you made the money back. All those trillions in bad debt and derivatives are already lost. The Ministry of Propaganda is in a tizzy, trying to mask the meltdown and offer up a facade of normalcy. But the money's already lost.

Will it be contained to the U.S.? Why should it? The bad debt is everywhere. And the spending spree all that borrowing unleashed washed over the entire globe. Now that Americans can't borrow any more, the spending dries up--and so does the global "prosperity" built on an Empire of Debt.

Here are a few predictions:

1. The Dow Jones Industrials will drop hundreds of points in a day, very soon, losing at least 3,000 points within the next few weeks.

2. The Shanghai stock market will lose half its value, dropping from 5,800 to under 3,000.

3. Major banks will be declared insolvent.

4. Major lay-offs will occur as U.S. retail, auto and house sales plummet.

5. The tech high-fliers (RIMM, GOOG and AAPL) fall will precipitously.

And that's just for openers. You can read the rest of the bad news HERE.


Anonymous said...

I am now simultaneously despised and regarded as a sage...

Happy Homedebtor said...

The Chinese did nothing to us - we did everything to ourselves.

Keith - you're a constant source of entertainment, keep it up. ;)

Whereas I'm not remotely lost or confused enough to think you're some kind of economic genius or wonder-kid financial analyst like most of your flock of sheep-disciples, I do love your attempts to convince everyone otherwise. ;)

What will be fun is to see how you all are doing in 2010 when our household income ends up making our house close to a 2x income ratio to purchase, and you're still waiting for prices to drop more as they've already bottomed and are rising. :D

Anonymous said...

Happy Birthday, Keith. Thanks for being a voice in the wilderness. I'll continue to enjoy living in my paid-for house, drive my old (but paid for account), and am getting ready to send more $$ overseas.

Mark in San Diego said...

From Dow Jones Marketwatch this AM:
"What were once just concerns about credit have graduated to a full-blown panic."
-- Kevin Giddis, managing director, fixed income, Morgan Keegan & Co.

THIS SAYS IT ALL - Happy Birthday!

Keyser Soze said...

Sorry about posting so soon...again.
It was May 2005, when my business was going well and I decided to buy a house. I was approved for a $500k loan and called a local realtor. I was taken aback when his reply was,'$ looking for a trailer?' I did spend the morning looking at dumps and then said 'F*ck it...I'll rent forever.'
Upon returning from a homeland vacation, my wife was depressed at the thought of renting forever. I told her we would continue to build a kick-ass investment portfolio and travel the world at our leisure. It was little solace to her. To make a short story long....your blog was the first to help me realize they were the crazy ones, not me! For that, I thank you. The worm has turned. Who knows, perhaps Keyser will buy a house in, say, 2010?

Anonymous said...

Yes, a big thank you to Keith for exposing the abuses and DECLINE of the worst ponzi scheme in our recent history!!

Like so many other posts I have read, we were eager to buy 2 years ago, but started reading this site and a few others-(thank you "DOOM", and realized the Shytt was about to hit the fannn--so rented a TH in Nova instead for half of what a mortgage woulda' cost us.

Housing prices are going to HAVE TO come down big time before anyone can qualify for these loans now--we will continue to wait this out until that happens--What a catostrophic disaster we are about to witness...

Anonymous said...

Yes, America- King of Dictatorship and Oppression around the world---NOT

We might have the most corrupt administration in our history, and for that, we are sick, but once we throw these bastards out of office, we will get things cleaned up--(uuughhh) and get the damn train back on the tracks.

Whenever I travel abroad on business, and come back to American soil, I still have an overwhelming urge to kiss the tarmac. Even in the midst of so much trouble and corruption, there is still so much good.

Let us hang on to that thought as our economy begins the biggest downward spiral we have ever seen!!


Anonymous said...

CNN segment on how in inflation adjusted prices, the Iraq war is the 2nd most expensive war in U.S. history. (WWII was the most expensive.)

Greg Swine said...


Congratulations on your second year. I hope you are happy that you single handily ruined the entire economy. Soon people will realize there are 21 reasons that you are wrong about everything you have ever stated. I hold my head high and carry the torch for common man who needs housing to define himself as a human being.

I find myself staring into the sunset and looking at all of this God given land. You may call it a kitty liter box, you may call it stucco shoe boxes, and I call it freedom. Every man needs to stake his claim in the soil that our fathers fought so desperately to protect. Even the illegal aliens need to feel the pride of homeownership.

I am here to make sure the dream of homeownership never dies. We need to stand together as one fight off the evil facts of the situation. We need to wrap our 2 year arms around each other and squeeze tight.

I am here to help people you are there to hurt them. You profit from the financial demise of your purported fraud, I profit from the knowledge of helping the common man reach his goals.

You say that 6% for a competent realtor is too much? I say Absurd. Who else could convince an unqualified illegal alien with no income to buy a sand box in the middle of hell and get thanked for it? I am mad as hell and I am not going to take it anymore.

Anonymous said...


You are my first stop every morning since early 2006. Keep up the good work and keep fighting the good fight!

You style may be more like the National Enquirer than the Wall Street Journal, but that only makes you much more readable (and the pictures are funny, too)!


Anonymous said...


Problem solved!

Just don't eat your toys!


Anonymous said...


You know those Chinese toys,

If you eat one you'll be hungry in an hour!


bradinsb said...

Thanks Keith
You were a huge help with me starting my blog also. Thank for the link to my blog. Its only started for me. said...

Congrats Keith. I always look forward to reading your posts!

k.w. - southern ca. said...

Your story is a common one I've heard and experienced myself.

I'm sure your wife is happy you made the decision you did, but it does take a more far-sighted outlook as to what will come - which most people do not have.

Keyser Soze said...
Sorry about posting so soon...again.
It was May 2005, when my business was going well and I decided to buy a house. I was approved for a $500k loan and called a local realtor. I was taken aback when his reply was,'$ looking for a trailer?' I did spend the morning looking at dumps and then said 'F*ck it...I'll rent forever.'
Upon returning from a homeland vacation, my wife was depressed at the thought of renting forever. I told her we would continue to build a kick-ass investment portfolio and travel the world at our leisure. It was little solace to her. To make a short story long....your blog was the first to help me realize they were the crazy ones, not me! For that, I thank you. The worm has turned. Who knows, perhaps Keyser will buy a house in, say, 2010?

Anonymous said...

Happy Birthday!

You are my first site in the morning and the last site I look at before I turn in.

Keep up the great (and very funny) work.

Anonymous said...

"This past summer's subprime meltdown involved about $900 billion in now-suspect securitized debt, reckless lending, and consumers who buckled under the weight of loans they couldn't afford. Now another link in the consumer debt chain - credit cards - is starting to show signs of strain."'-Wallets;_ylt=AiQUEWGanGFZ7Et.NlY54Ei7YWsA

Happy Homedebtor said...

Countrywide is handing out 5% loans to subprime option-arm losers...I want my fuq'in handout too now damnit!

Anonymous said...


Happy birthday. For a long time you were like Don Quixote tilting against the windmill of NAR spin, lies and outright deception. But because you were after the truth you prevailed and exposed a whole bunch of naked castrated emperors. You fought the good fight on behalf of the common man and you helped him see through the tissue of lies that Wall street and the government have woven around him. You made him realise that the aroma he was smelling in the morning was not that of robusta coffee but of human waste that had been dried, diced and spliced into fine granules. You made him notice that the warm water coming out of his shower is nothing but the combined piss of the NAR, the Fed and the MSM. Keep it up man, keep it up. And may God bless you.

Out at the peak said...

I kinda kick myself for covering CFC and C too early (still made profits). At least I am still riding on 45% PM (silver was my choice) gains and 15% currency gains.

Happy Birthday and thanks supporting sane investments.

Anonymous said...

Help me Ben, I need a cash infusion. Dow down/ inflation up.

ps. Be sure to include a cost of living increase.

devestment said...

i spent too much time on this blog when i should have been selling into the best bull market in history.

ROM Spaceknight said...

Thanks for the great blog. It helped me fight the pressure from friends and family to buy at the exact wrong time (2/2006)! This year has been one of the best years of my life, renting cheap, traveling, enjoying the fruits of my labor and watching my money increase.

Mammoth said...

Congrats on your 2nd anniversery, HP. Thanks for all the great reads.

And what d'ya is Mammoth's birthday also!

20048 years old (give or take a few thousand years or so).

Anonymous said...

I try to post something here once a day. Thanks for the great knowledge and entertainment. It was about 2 years ago, almost exactly that my buddy's wife who worked for Lennar, at time yelled, "the housing market is *NEVER* going to crash!!" Strangely, that was the last time we hung out...


Anonymous said...

>> ...enjoying the fruits of my labor and watching my money increase.

While its value decreases.

1. Value of your money decreasing.
2. You rent.

You = pwned loser


Anonymous said...



Read it and weep suckers. All those supposed FBs are getting 5% loans for 30 years.

zackattack said...

please stop saying "oil at $100" though it is measured in "devalued" USDs, the market forces associated with the recent running up of oil prices has more to do with spweculative investing over the last 1.5 years and little to do with the housing bubble. I will however admit that the housing bubble is real.

Oil is not, and has not been $100 ppb

Anonymous said...

It's not the interest they can't afford it's the principle. The "teaser rate" forever mortgages Countrywide is offering delinquent subprime debtors is just a way for them to reset all the delinquent mortgages, clean up their books for a little while and keep the ponzi scheme going a little while longer so that Orangzillo can figure out how to avoid prosecution. I think his plan now is based on praying for Bushie to bail him out or pardon him. I understand the Orange one is a church going man.

P.S. Has anyone explored a possible connection between Orangezillo and
anonymous said...


Read it and weep suckers. All those supposed FBs are getting 5% loans for 30 years.

We All Freaking Doomed said...


Thanks for doing your good daily deed for the past two years.

You have saved many people millions of dollars and spared them sleepless nights - not to mention slavery via mortgage debt.

Anonymous said...

i was going around telling people about this stuff over two years ago but i didn't know about this place, but somehow i stumbled on it , i guess when i was looking at mortgage implode which i heard about...and the rest is hiss tow ree.

Anonymous said...


I happened upon your blog on Sept 28 when I did a search of Lawrence Yun. I check multiple times a day for your updates. I admit that you may be right. I started feeling the skepticism about the housing market in 2005.

It's nice to see someone as informed as you giving "realtors on commission" and the homebuilders a dose of reality

Anonymous said...

I am now simultaneously despised and regarded as a sage...

Same here. Around 2.5 years ago(like Keith?) I just couldn't make the housing prices work in my head. I started commenting on it and was ridiculed. Now people are starting to realize how bad things are.

I'm still amazed at how much longer the bubble was inflated than I possibly thought it could be.

including the kitchen sink said...

Thanks Keith for your kick-butt professional work!

Happy Birthday HP!

My Fav Bush Video: The Hindenburg.
My Fav HP Photo: Angelo's kid standing in line! What a hoot!

Just yesterday, I looked at a new repo house that was listed for sale at a great price. When I went there I found it had No kitchen appliances, No kitchen cabinets, No furnace, No lighting fixtures and No hot water heater. The house is only 5 to 7 years old! I asked the agent what happended to all the kitchen cabinets and the rest? (You could tell from the old screw lines on the wall and missing floor tiles, hanging outlet wires, etc.) He said the previous owner took them.

Including the kitchen sink, plumbing and base cabinets! Gone!

And now we know the rest of the story, thanks to HP.


:D 1776

Anonymous said...

Happy Birthday

Remember the Name "HousingPanic"

Anonymous said...

"Housing cheerleaders like David Lereah, Lawrence Yun, Nicholas Retsinas, Greg Swann, Mike Norman, Kendra Todd and Blanche Evans laughed at, mocked, and fully and forever discredited."

Ah, don't dance on their graves just yet. LA Times (can't get enough) just did a Q&A with ya boy Nicholas Retsinas this weekend ( ). Suppposedly, the housing market downtun spells doom for renters.

SpeculativeBubble said...

Congrats on 2 years!

Princess Mononoke said...

Hi Keith,

Although I am an HP newby. 3 mos. new to be exact. I am so happy to have found your blog! Thanks for setting yourself apart and daring to be different...

!!!!!!!!Happy Birthday!!!!!!!!

ROM said...

1. Value of your money decreasing.
2. You rent.


Who said my money is in USD? Your real estate is decreasing.

Yes, I rent. That means that my landlord has to paint the building, maintain the common areas, handle trash collection and replace my toilet seat. Boo F**kin Hoo!