October 25, 2007

HP'ers you're on your own for the weekend. Let me know what I missed


I'm always leaving when the real sh*t hits the fan, but off to Paris tomorrow for the weekend. Yup, on the very day that Angelo comes clean. I'll try to find an internet cafe to check in and get comments up. Let me know what I missed.

I'll miss Angelo. Place won't be the same without him to kick around anymore...

48 comments:

Anonymous said...

HEY! Ben Stein said to buy Merril back in August when it was in the $70s... Now... oh, nevermind...

coke adds life said...

Enjoy! -- I think Paris is perhaps the best city on Earth. I just read where France is experimenting with making some of their museums free including the Cluny, and I think the experiment has started so check it out.

If that picture were in the U.S., instead of a Zodiac the watercraft would be a jet ski.

Anonymous said...

HOLY SH*T!

Look at the Fu*kin' greenback!

Every day its worth less

rapidly heading to worthless

Anonymous said...

Don't forget to have some drinks at Hotel Costes' bar or at the Buddha Bar. Also have a dinner at Cafe Marly, which is inside the Louvre. Another good place to have a drink is at Hemingway Bar, inside the Ritz-Carlton, on the Place Vendome.
Just don't dress like an American tourist from a red state because you won't get in anywhere in Paris.

Anonymous said...

Keith, don't micromanage this blog. You have to keet it up and running. This is your moment!!!!!

Have a wonderful trip. :)

Dariusz said...

Keith, why you leave us, now. Without you even morning coffe doesn't taste as good. Be back! Be back! We need you!
Darius
Poland

Dariusz said...

Keith,
Why you leave us, now?
Without your comments even morning coffe doesn't taste as good.
Be back, be back!
All the best
Dariusz
Poland

borkafatty said...

Keith have a good time...and here is what you missed:

The Dollar at lifetime low of..77.06

Oil at $92 and change

Countrywide...Coming soon

AIG: $10 billion write off

So I would say things are just fine enjoy your vacation.


----------------------------------
"Son, if you really want something in this life, you have to work for it. Now quiet! They're about to announce the lottery numbers."

Kent said...

At least his tan should coordinate well with his new wardrobe.

Anonymous said...

Love Paris - check a pizza parlor across from ST. GERMAIN CHURCH sort of near Louis Vuitton store (on rue St. Germain, duh) it's the bomb! Also a cool Aussi type bar by the Pantheon (pretty quiet there - guess why?)... "quand le caht n'est pas la, les souris danse!"

christiangustafson said...

Orangzillo doesn't deserve a jail cell. Really, he doesn't. All of his options exercises were plainly open for us to see. Of course he was an insider, so he scheduled a huge wave of sales over the past wo years. Big deal. He's only on the hook if he engineered other hijinks that we don't know about just yet.

The analysts who kept a "buy" rating on CFC the whole time, despite this obvious lack of CEO confidence, they belong in jail.

striker said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJ_qK4g6ntM&eurl=http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/

SPECTRE of Deflation said...

Keith, here's hoping you add to your real treasure chest which is your memories. Let me tell you how it all ends:

your all bank belong to me!

Signed China

Frank said...

I doubt the Tan Man will take a swan dive.

I think he'll just follow Ken's lead over at BOA and throw the privates and Sgts under the bus.

I'm shocked, shocked to find poorly underwritten loans going on here! I'll fix it by firing those incompetent fools.

Now, where's my bonus...

Anonymous said...

Well you missed it alright and in more ways than one ... Countrywide has just stated that it expects to return to profitability this quarter and its stock is soaring.

Somehow though, I expect this "good news" from Countrywide is a lie. Call me suspicious if you will.

Anonymous said...

hey, only a loss of 1.2B for orangilo and crew. I wonder where the 24Billion went (11 credit draw down, 2 from BofA, and the addition 11Billion in recent credit draw).

fish said...

*
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You'll miss Angelo......ah Keith, no need to fret....remember he'll always be as close as your favorite produce section!

Look in the citrus section, near the lemons and limes!

Pay Lay Ale said...

CFC's loss was much worse than expected, yet the stock is up 15%.

WTF???

area 51 said...

Keith, here's what you missed...

CFC loses $1.2B, stock SOARS!

That's 'cause they called bottom...

Hey it must be true right?

I think I'll go out and buy a house now.....

Good thing you didn't purchase put options again.
Hell why didn't you just short them outright? You would have made a lot more money...

Anonymous said...

I just got back from a 4 week vacation in Oregon and northern California and had a few observations. People are talking slow down, but only small amount and mostly other places. Stopped and looked a real estate in Oregon, not wanting to buy now, but wanted to know the price now, so I'll know how much things have fallen "I hope" I have a HS friend building and selling houses in Redmond, OR and he had sold eight houses and was building those presold and will only build presold. He said there is no money for spec houses now. The strange thing was people were spending tons of money. Outlet malls packed, places to eat packed, hotels on the Oregon coast packed. Slow down might be happening, but no one I saw acted like they were worried.

Anonymous said...

You missed to call your broker to cash in your shorts before flying off to Paris.

How much have you lost in shorting Orange?

Anonymous said...

Keith/HP'ers,

1.2 Billion loss
CW Shares rise....
Can anyone explain what the heck this means to someone who just works in the mortgage industry but is so confused by this!! How can anyone buy? Why? and do people actually take the company's word on the proposed profit next quarter? None of this makes sense to my simple mind...explain what you think is happening please!

borkafatty said...

Dollar @ 76.95..sorry I have to say it....we are FUCKED!!

westwest888 said...

"Countrywide Sees Return to Profit After $1.2 Billion Loss; Shares Advance"

A real bait and switch act. I have no idea who is buying this, or why the stock is up double digit percent. "Yeah as soon as every single one of our customers zero equity properties is bank owned by us, THEN we'll be profitable on loans going forward. We just gotta write-through the 100,000,000 home loans we made recently. And that will be done next quarter. Trust me. Worst is behind us."

boston observer said...

How convenient you skip town the day CFC rallies 26% and leads US markets back within a few % points of the all time highs.

Paul E. Math said...

http://tinyurl.com/3xramb

So much for coming clean.

I just don't believe that Countrywide is going to return to profitability next quarter. Something doesn't make sense.

If Countrywide turns a profit next quarter then they have either done some extremely shifty accounting or they have colluded, weaseled, bribed and conned Americans and their governing bodies once again.

Batman said...

Don't worry, Angelo says Countrywide will be profitable in Q4. Nothing to see here, everybody move along...

Dollar at record breaking low, gold and oil going through the roof. No, no, it's just business as usual folks. Nothing to get excited about.

Anonymous said...

You seemed to have got it wrong Keith. You know a lier will only compound his/her lie with another and another.

The secret to lying is to deny, deny, deny. It works most of the time.

Anonymous said...

HA HA HA HA.

Oh yeah some recession. Microsoft blows its numbers out of the water. Stock markets are surging. CFC up 20%. Way to go with those CFC puts.

Keep it up doomers and gloomers keep putting your money in money markets. Brilliant!

brokersleaveyoubroke said...

You're missing all the fun. Angelo just lost a billion or so but he says everything gonna be OK next quarter. Stock market in a big rally because Angelo says not to worry. It's getting surreal.

pissed my pants said...

CFC is kicking some HPer ass today. Yes, I know it's all a sham, but the boyz in charge of this sham have got the media trained and the public distracted with bread and circuses.

Too bad for all of you short on CFC, 'cause the party rolls on.

Oh yeah, one more thing,

DOPES!

scribe said...

From CNBC:

Countrywide's Mortgages: They Can't Really Change A Thing

Posted By:Diana Olick

Is it possible to be bleary-eared? I’ve just hung up from a two-hour conference call with Countrywide’s
Countrywide Financial Corp
top dogs and all the top analysts that cover the company. I can’t say I learned anything new, except that CEO Angelo Mozilo admitted openly that the SEC is investigating his stock trades. We knew that already, but that was the first time he said it.

Then there are the things I really can’t believe he said, like that Countrywide is actually poised to gain market-share because so many other lenders went out of business, thanks to the shoddy lending practices being employed by all of them. I don’t doubt that it’s true, but should he really be saying that out loud?

Then there was Mozilo’s Caesar-like declaration that Countrywide is the sole survivor of the worst credit nightmare he’s seen in his quarter century career in the lending business. First of all, I don’t get it. Granted they didn’t go out of business, like dozens of others, but I believe there are still a few other companies in the mortgage game, like, oh, I don’t know, Indy Mac? Wells Fargo??

Oh, and I’m still trying to figure out how the heck Countrywide can claim that it’s refinancing or modifying $16 billion worth of loans, when it doesn’t own all those loans, it just services the bulk of them. My trusty "Realty Check" producer, Jill Thompson, spent much of yesterday calling those in the know who would know, because of course Countrywide wouldn’t call us back. She got every answer from they can to they can’t.

But then, finally, two hours into the earnings call, Howard Shapiro, one of my favorite mortgage experts (of Fox-Pitt Kelton Cochran Caronia Waller), asked the question flat out. Who has the legal authority to change these loans? There was a short: “The servicer,” from one of the C’wide underlings. “So you guys can do that?” Shapiro asks. Answer: “Yes.” My, not a lot of elaboration there.

But then, after a question on something else, Mr. Mozilo himself jumps in and says he wants to clarify the earlier question: “We have the authority to modify the loans within the parameters of the servicing contract...this will vary from investor to investor.” In other words, if the contract says they can’t modify the loans, then they can’t. Precisely what several experts told me yesterday.

So all this talk that Countrywide is going to save every borrower in trouble is, in part, just a lot of talk. By law, by legal contract with at least some of the Wall Street folks who bought the loans as nice big packages, they can’t change a darned thing.

Questions? Comments? RealtyCheck@cnbc.com

depresso said...

CFC is up 32% today... ???

Out at the peak said...

You missed the ridiculous 32% increase in CFC. I covered my last short earlier this month. If I held, I'd still have profit, but a lot of gains would have been lost. Since my skin was out of the game, I was neutral about the run up. The longs who bought in at 20 are still underwater though.

One guy on the Yahoo forums just shorted Thursday and lost $25K on Friday. He was seriously suicidal.

I have a lot sitting in cash right now. I'm hoping for a drop off in oil so I can buy back in at a lower price.

Anonymous said...

32.36% up.

Orange man has tricked all the short sellers.

Anonymous said...

http://www.tiny.cc/aHjSW

Anonymous said...

Not good news, Keith. People are killing themselves over this sh*t...

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5244051.html?ref=patrick.net

-FreddyinP'town

Anonymous said...

I live in North Bay Village and have been tracking condo prices for a few years now. Weird things are happening in one of the buildings I happen to monitor on the MLS. Some units have been on the market for over 2 years and in spite of some moderate price drops have not sold. Than there are units that were on the market in the high 200 which, for these units was quite high considering the low floor their on with practically no view. From an asking price of 278 they jumped to 425 and sold a few months later for that price ( in the same building you can buy units with a gorgeous view that are renovated with new kitchens, bathrooms etc for less!!! Than on Ziprealty I saw 1 unit that I know was sold in Jan for 287 but it showed a selling price of 425!! I looked it up on the MLS and even though in history it notes a CS closed sale, price of $287 the price listed on the tax form is $425!! Are banks really that stupid??? This unit was bought in 05 for 225 and has been rented out to the same people for 1200 p/m and still is! I don't get it, this whole mess were in has been sponsered and enocouraged by every person in this busines and now they want a bail out!!

Anonymous said...

Relax about the CFC jump. A good part of it was short covering.

Peahippo said...

Mozilo continues to prove that the common investor is such an actual, mental retard that the right of the common man to invest in stocks, bonds and other securities should be summarily REVOKED. The right should then be regained upon licensing, pending an extensive test that aims on proving knowledge of money, economics and speculation manias.

Anonymous said...

Can I trade lives with you?

I am inhaling toxic fumes in Orange County while the fires rage.

Can someone please just put out the frickin fire! How hard is that to do?

Enjoy Paris - one of my favorite cities.

Anonymous said...

Also a cool Aussi type bar by the Pantheon (pretty quiet there - guess why?)... "quand le caht n'est pas la, les souris danse!"

Hmmm, would that be Cafe Oz? One night I stayed playing cards with the owner & barman until late, after the bar closed. Show any international student ID and you get a free shot. I lived right around the corner, on rue La Place.

Oh, and there's nothing quiet about that bar. Mostly Aussies there, though.

Anonymous said...

1929 IS BACK AGAIN THIS TIME IT WILL BE 2009

Anonymous said...

Ahem,
While in Paris look up Arafts widow, get her contact information and post it; att: Honica Jewinski, he really needs some relief.
They have a lot in common and am sure Honica can use a few bucks too.

Anonymous said...

Hey Keith, I think it's a bit late but you should check the flea market that takes place every Saturday morning at the end of the famous Rue Mouffetard, in the 5th arr. (Quartier Latin). I used to love to go there to look for vintage crap and buy some cheese with my hot French girlfriend...how Parisian!

bottom feeder in philly said...

Hey Keith,
It really sucks when you bail on your peeps. Cruisin Paris is cool and all, and I hope your gettin some play out there, but I'm sure your making enough cake off this blog to have wireless internet. Keep shit coming. I need my housing panic damnit.
Bottom Feeder in Philly

Anonymous said...

Slow down might be happening, but no one I saw acted like they were worried.

Yes, those people are called irresponsible baby boomers.

Anonymous said...

Is Paris in Africa?