October 27, 2007

And there you have it... It looks like Angelo has chosen jail

Sarbanes-Oxley.

Sarbanes-Oxley.

Sarbanes-Oxley.

Glad my CFC puts covered last Friday. After this pump and dump, might be time to get back in...

Meanwhile, gold is at what today? $785? Oil at all-time high. Stocks flying. And Bernanke is gonna CUT the fuc*king rate again? You gotta be kidding me.

The middle class is gonna get crushed.

59 comments:

Anonymous said...

It does sound like the rate is going to be cut again. Some of the talking heads on cnbc talked about another 50 bs cut again. What are going the worst outcomes of the rate cut? How are the French treating you?

Londonernow said...

I don't even think there is a doubt that he will be cutting 50bp, just not sure necessarily how stocks will react to that this time. It may be off to the races again for stocks, but long rates will be going up and the dollar will continue to tank. I was thinking EURUSD of 1.45 by year end but it may be closer to 1.50.

Anonymous said...

Yep, everything says the FED should raise rates, or at least hold them with a bias to raise them, and yet word on the street says the fix is in for another cut!! Unreal, stop bailing out wall street and let investors suffer their fate for assuming so much risk in leveraged financing of overvalued assets. The market rewards and punishes, when you interfere like this you just make matters worse for the wrong people.

Anonymous said...

"Glad my CFC puts covered last Friday."

You're so full of crap....Every time one of your touted investment moves doesn't pan out....It's oh, I sold last week...My puts covered on Friday....I'm all into cash.

Whatever you say Mr. Dow 8,000

Peter T said...

Bernanke needs to cut to dampen the upcoming recession. Stocks won't fly much longer. On the other hand, oil and gold will increase further, especially after they have broken the 100 mark and the previous nominal gold record around 840 - the media will make those events into headlines. Increasing oil and gold prices are just indicators that Americans are poorer now, relative to the rest of the globalized world.

Mark in San Diego said...

Angelo is using HP and other blogs as reason he is "innocent.". . .his statement yesterday said, "I sold on public knowledge". . .hmmmmm I guess he must have meant Blogs, because MSM certainly was asleep. . .although perhaps he read Noriel Rubini, or Bill Gross, or even Stephen Roach. . .perhaps we should give the man some credit.

jorghis said...

Oh come on now, do you really think they committed accounting fraud? Do you have any evidence whatsoever? What is your basis for this accusation?

Countrywide showed much stronger balance sheet than everyone expected yesterday. Angelo hasnt done anything except sell the options he was given in preperation for his retirement in 2008. These sales were planned a long time ago, you can look it up.

thisthatother47 said...

In retrospect, this result should've been obvious. Angelo has to say next quarter will be great, it then justifies that he wasn't selling shares into a horrid environment. When he is proven wrong, he will just blame it on market conditions - and still have his argument against getting what he deserves.

Jokers.

Have fun on your trip though!

art said...

No way will he be prosecuted. If he is and a conviction happens, I bet he will "do a Ken Lay".

Anonymous said...

Lock him up with Bubba
(No Vaseline)

Peahippo said...

Mozilo has far too much money to ever see jail time. He may just arrange a fine, and then he'll arrange Contrywide to pay it in his stead. He's invulnerable. And that's the way the middle class wanted it, since they believed they were ALSO rich and could enjoy the same invulnerability.

American culture is classifiably insane. The middle class didn't want to be middle class anymore, so it spent itself silly pretending it was rich. The poor spent money like they were the previous middle class. The lenders and creditors of all kinds were perfectly OK with that, and all that wretched excess hid the underlying weakness of the banking system.

Now comes the start of the Time of Payments. We're only in the False Recovery phase of the largest asset crash ever seen in Human history. After this 18-month period (which roughly began in early 2007), then the real deflation begins, and you won't be able to BURN assets fast enough to cope.

Casual_Observer said...

What is new ?
This is business a la Americano.
Crony capitalism.

Anonymous said...

BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!
BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!
BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!
BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!

Way to go with the CFC puts geniuses.

the real peyton manning said...

I wonder what he would look like in a orange jumpsuit.

Anonymous said...

As a long time HP'er, I've been a naughty boy today. I went to Ikea to buy a bunch of furnishings. Does the fact that's not Chinese (it's Scandinavian) help me to get away with it?

Lost Cause said...

Creative financing and creative accounting. Known as fraud to us regular people.

keith said...

sorry to disappoint trolls but as everyone knows on this blog my cfc puts were october. had to disclose legally anytime i posted about countryfried

now I don't have any and life's not the same. I think the market might call bullsh*t on angelo's rosy forecast next week.

three words for angelo:

mark to market

another three words:

take the fifth

Anonymous said...

OT. So Keith, while you were sipping a Bordeaux at Cafe Les Deux Maggots (my favorite to watch Parisian life go by), I was being nosy, checking the following HP Web trends (in order of search volume):

1. Washington, DC, USA

2. San Diego, CA, USA

3. Phoenix, AZ, USA

4. San Francisco, CA, USA

5. Los Angeles, CA, USA

6. New York, NY, USA

Wow, it seems that you have a bunch of GOP parasite-paper pushers, crook lobbyists, and Secret Society freaks checking your site out. I thought those bastards would be busy in our Nation's Capital(I said it like Forrest Gump), trying to create chaos to make a buck at taxpayer's expense, instead of reading Blogs like this.

Meanwhile, the borders are wide open for millions of strangers to walk right in, no questions asked, and with Bank of America offering credit cards and the states giving away Driver's Licenses to all these illegals. Hey Georgia, AZ, NV, NC, SC, etc, how do you plan to produce so much fresh water to so many illegals every damn year ad infinitum? Just curious.

Anonymous said...

Somebody posted above that CFC's balance sheet looks good. Don't listen to that person. CFC's balance sheet is crap to the core. It's mismarked and subject to incineration by the fools it lent $$$$ to. For example, it has about $28B in option arms on its books. Care to guess what percent of those arms make the minimum monthly payment now? 80%. Care to guess what % of those loans are no- or low-doc loans? 80%.

So that's $22B of option arm loans made to LIARS and folks who can't even pay the TEASER rate. AND THAT'S JUST THE OPTION ARMS. THERE'S PLENTY MORE CRAP ON THE BALANCE SHEET.

"What other sort of crap," you might ask. Good job! Well, in the LOANS HELD FOR INVESTMENT category, CFC has reserved only about 0.33% for loan losses on $75B. Sounds good to me!!! Delinquencies are running at 4% for prime loans and >20% for subprime, I'm sure that 33 bps will cover you!!!!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

http://tinyurl.com/2jyajm
The Associated Press

Housing Slump Likely to Worsen

snip;
David Seiders, the home builders' chief economist, said he believes housing will gradually stabilize in the next year with sales hitting a low-point in the first quarter and then starting to move higher,

snip;
He predicted the Federal Reserve, which in September cut a key interest rate for the first time in four years, will keep cutting rates until Fed officials can be sure the housing downturn will not trigger a full-blown recession. The Fed meets again next Tuesday and Wednesday.

king of the Bitter Renters said...

To chortling numbskulls,

Did you see the outright collapse of ABX market this week. Loans that had a BBB rating lost FIFTY percent of their value.

Those bonds backing those CDO's and MBS's are all worth NOTHING. AAA rated shit will be next.

Welcome to the United States of Alt-A!!!!!!

Now that the markets have taken the skids off this week, if you are smart and got the balls ( or insider info at GS) you too can surf the Dow down to 2000.

Question is only what will set off the crash.

BB cutting rates again!!??

Anonymous said...

It's the end of the run.

Countrywide has a bad quarter but not one it can't recover from.

Housing prices set to rise again after a plateau.

Wages up, and unemployment claims down.

Record profits in technology, air transportation, and manufacturing.

SOME CRASH!

DOPES!!!

Anonymous said...

Anon 6:08 said:
Lock him up with Bubba
(No Vaseline)
---------------------------
Just what does that mean anyways? First of all, who is Bubba? That doesn't sound like a Mexican name. Most of California's incarcerated are Hispanic, Latino, whatever you want to call it. So shouldn't it be "Lock him up with Jose, Juan,or Puto.

And what do you mean by "No Vaseline"? Are you implying that he sould be raped? Just what kind of sick individual are you? Prison rape is very serious crime that occurrs in our prisons everyday because of the failure of the overpaid prison guards who do nothing to protect inmates from this most horrible of crimes!
Sick Asshole!

sk said...

==============================
"Glad my CFC puts covered last Friday."

You're so full of crap....Every time one of your...
=============================

Look, he said there were Oct. puts. Regardless of whether he covered ( as in sold ) or not, they EXPIRED a week ago Fri ( 3rd Fri of the month ) - his broker would have automatically exercised his in-the-money puts and his ( at 17.x ) were assuredly in-the-money a week ago Fri.

What happened next is anyone's guess but on THAT publicly stated trade he's a WINNER.

-K

Peter T said...

Keith, you wrote:
> as everyone knows on this blog my cfc puts were october. had to disclose legally anytime i posted about countryfried

I remember you mentioning a few times october as your puts' date, so far you're right I think. But why do you think that legally you have to disclose it? I would think that you are free to do what you want in this question (as long as your audience doesn't pay you for financial services, of course). The mainstream media make their journalist disclose their positions, and I like it, but is there a law that you have to?

Anonymous said...

GOLD TO DA MOON ALICE!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Keith,

While you are in France, how about a visit to Angelo's home at South of France.

Anonymous said...

housing crash continues - check

that's all i need to make my day. the rest of the economy can hum right along and i'll be happy. my money is in international stocks and oil

Anonymous said...

Hey, how bout introducing modern dentistry to the French, WTF, its 2007 and the French haven’t learned the health benefits of oral hygiene?

Bill in AZ said...

"anonymous" said:

BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!

Way to go with the CFC puts geniuses.


(What is with the "bwa" thing, anyway?)

I have a question for you, __idiot__: what does it feel like to realize that others notice that you only show up and laugh on the rare occasions that something goes "your way", and never say a damned thing when they do not? In other words: what is it like to have no ability to be objective, and to have absolutely no integrity?

Let me give you an example of how to be a man, and how to live your life by truth, rather than selfish fantasies:

I was short CFC, and I took it up the ass on Friday. However, I've been short on them from the beginning, and have more than doubled my net worth in the past year from simply observing the obvious realities in the housing arena and putting my money in the right place.

It is clear that you have not, and I have to admit I derive sexual pleasure from watching dimwits like you grasping at straws.

BWAAAAAAAA HA HA HA HA!!

SPECTRE of Deflation said...

His only question is, "can I bring my tangeloing bed?".

bickerer said...

Increasing oil and gold prices are just indicators that Americans are poorer now, relative to the rest of the globalized world.

Perhaps this is the whole point. Americans must be made poorer to force them to stop their gluttonous consumption.

No other form of "persuasion" is going to work other than YOU DON'T HAVE THE MONEY TO BUY IT BITCH, GET THE F OUT!!!

This could have been done in a less painful and more fair way if Greenspan had raised rates in '04 to stop the wealth effect/heloc nonsence.

Cow_tipping said...

Why do you keep saying the middle class is going to get crushed ???
I believe retiree's, china (due to dollar peg and them buying US bonds), minimum wage jobs (mostly held by illegals I must think) and anyone who doesn't have some market demand for their skill will be crushed.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

devestment said...

How come we never hear about prison prostitution? All we ever hear about is rape. Probably just fear mongering and governmental social control like the fake FEMA news conferences, etc.

k.w. - southern ca. said...

When was the middle-class *not* crushed?

A rate cut does not surprise me,
just business as usuall.

They'll cut the rate as much as they have to in order to save *their own* skins.

k.w. - southern ca. said...

This is a very accurate picture of what is to come - and it also applies to the wealthy.

The fact that the mortgage crisis is not contained to just subprime tells us that people on higher income levels were also buying into houses beyond their reach as well, many hoping to flip them in 1-2 years.

The real fall-out from all this is yet to be seen.


Peahippo said...
Mozilo has far too much money to ever see jail time. He may just arrange a fine, and then he'll arrange Contrywide to pay it in his stead. He's invulnerable. And that's the way the middle class wanted it, since they believed they were ALSO rich and could enjoy the same invulnerability.

American culture is classifiably insane. The middle class didn't want to be middle class anymore, so it spent itself silly pretending it was rich. The poor spent money like they were the previous middle class. The lenders and creditors of all kinds were perfectly OK with that, and all that wretched excess hid the underlying weakness of the banking system.

Now comes the start of the Time of Payments. We're only in the False Recovery phase of the largest asset crash ever seen in Human history. After this 18-month period (which roughly began in early 2007), then the real deflation begins, and you won't be able to BURN assets fast enough to cope.

October 27, 2007 6:31 PM

Anonymous said...

Article today on Ron Paul in the Houston Chronicle:

"To help pay for the stepped-up efforts — of course the campaign hopes to reach beyond past donors who included a self-identified clown and a wizard — the campaign has also set a target of raising $12 million for the last three months of this year."

Wizards and clowns. HP keeps good company.

Anonymous said...

Do the job of a prison guard for a day and then tell me they're overpaid. Please.

Hey, Dopes, you're a few years early if you're looking for a rebound in housing just yet. Keep up the amusing posts, though.

Anonymous said...

Welcome to the revolution...

http://www.blacklistednews.com
/view.asp?ID=4621

Kent said...

"Anonymous said...
It's the end of the run.

Countrywide has a bad quarter but not one it can't recover from.

Housing prices set to rise again after a plateau.

Wages up, and unemployment claims down.

Record profits in technology, air transportation, and manufacturing.

SOME CRASH!

DOPES!!!"

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Hey DOPES,

I can't believe anyone on this planet would think that real estate prices are only on a "plateau" and are set to begin rising. Keith, this guy (gal) CAN'T be for real.

Anonymous said...

Get a thread on the DEMOCRAT ELliot "idiot" Spitzer wanting to give illegal aliens Driver Licenses.


This is just a way to give them legitimacy and let them vote for Hillary

LauraVella said...

Another good youtube video titled: Central California Housing Crash

Hercules is located 20 miles east of San Francisco.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVFBojFJTZM

Anonymous said...

Hey Keith,

Can't find the site www.excwinsider.com anymore...

Ex-employees vent about CW...

Have you heard anything about this?

LauraVella said...

Youtube video titled: Market Crash!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13j8qfr--Wk

LauraVella said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
LauraVella said...

Keith, here's an excellent Youtube video titled: The inevitable collapse of the dollar


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4n3g5lUgkWk

Anonymous said...

I went to Ikea to buy a bunch of furnishings. Does the fact that's not Chinese (it's Scandinavian) help me to get away with it?
------------------------------------

Isn't it a Scandinavian company that has the stuff manufactured in China?

Batman said...

Anyone think gold will take 800 this week? Recent jump feels a bit shaky to me. I say year end we have Gold at 800, oil back down a bit in the 80s and USD index plumbing 75.. or is that by week end...?

Anonymous said...

Does the fact that's not Chinese (it's Scandinavian) help me to get away with it?

Dude, you should probably check that- I would bet anything it was designed in Scandinavia and manufactured in China.

charlatan said...

Glad my CFC puts covered last Friday

a classic example of what we call "aftertiming" in british betting parlance!

Anonymous said...

Awesome article...

Explains why prices aren't dropping as fast as they should, and predicts when the fear stage will set in.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/
north/north580.html

Anonymous said...

"Glad my CFC puts covered last Friday."

Yeah, well, you would have been a lot gladder had you sold them on Thursday.

Anonymous said...

Get a thread on the DEMOCRAT ELliot "idiot" Spitzer wanting to give illegal aliens Driver Licenses.


This is just a way to give them legitimacy and let them vote for Hillary


Now how exactly is that going to work?

My wife is a LEGAL immigrant with a green card, and has had a driver's license since she first arrived. (yes she had a visa before we married)

And she can't vote.

If she became a citizen, what could she do? vote and get called for jury duty. She thinks the second disadvantage out weights the first. She may be right.

Out at the peak said...

I was at a Halloween party over the weekend. I overheard one housing conversation. From what I gathered was that this woman applied for a mortgage and was denied. She was confused, "Why not make me the loan and make interest off of it?"

She was just trying to live in a house and not be an investor.

bearmaster said...

Keith, did you catch that Henry Cisneros, former head of HUD, resigned from Countryside?

Cisnero bails

Anonymous said...

Do the job of a prison guard for a day and then tell me they're overpaid. Please.
------------------------------
Do the job of a prison guard? Do you mean watch inmates get tortured and raped while you watch, make gladiator type bets, and bilk the taxpayer for bogus overtime while you played cards and slept?

Mammoth said...

“Do the job of a prison guard? Do you mean watch inmates get tortured and raped while you watch, make gladiator type bets, and bilk the taxpayer for bogus overtime while you played cards and slept?”
---------------------------------
Used to ride in a vanpool with a couple of prison guards, and I’ve heard a lot of their stories.

You wouldn’t believe the crap they have to put up with every day! These people earn their money.

Anonymous said...

I think the DOPES posts are facetious, intended for amusement only. Nobody can really be that stupid/brainwashed. Can they?

Happy European said...

Anonymous said...
Keith,

While you are in France, how about a visit to Angelo's home at South of France.

October 28, 2007 4:41 AM


Address anyone? Since I live in South of France (not the fancy Cote d'Azur). Oh, how I would love to vandalize that house. No wonder prices here have gone absolutely through the roof, when all swindlers on earth put their dirty money in French real estate. The Corsican nationalists are right - they just bomb those houses away. Result: the most beautiful mediterranean coast line.