October 07, 2007

Everything to do with The Great Phoenix Housing Collapse encapsulated in one horrific article. Ah, the end of a classic Ponzi Scheme. Classic.


Ya gotta love those ramen eating Phoenix real estate bloggers on commission who were either too naive or too addicted to their commissions and NAR cheerleading PR to understand the factors at play that made the Phoenix housing market a classic unsustainable financial mania. The jobs! The immigrants! The weather! The golf! And they ain't makin' more desert!

Well, one thing they are making more of in Phoenix these days is foreclosure signs. Lots of 'em. Lots and lots and lots of 'em.

And the Ponzi Scheme ends.


Phoenix: Boom, Bust in Area Beset by Foreclosures - Real Estate Bust and Foreclosure Boom Comes Home to a Neighborhood Built on Easy Credit

Out on Phoenix's suburban fringes, where cement mixers are fast colonizing what's left of the hay and cotton fields, the day is winding to a close. The home hour has arrived. But sundown gives away a troubling secret: Behind dark windows and many unanswered doors, it's clear nobody is coming home.

The ranch home on Via del Palo where the newspaper in the driveway has been sitting unclaimed since April. The house at the corner of 223rd Court with faded fliers stuck in the door. The two-story on Via del Rancho with the phone book on the step.

They're all empty, left behind by a rising tide of foreclosures.

This neighborhood has a still-unfolding story to tell, and it is not always a comfortable one to hear.

Not long ago, builders were raising home prices here thousands of dollars week after week. Families pitched tents in front of sales offices and waited for Saturday morning lotteries to win the right to buy. Buyers -- including more than a few speculators -- gambled with loans whose risks were obscured by euphoria.

This is the tale of how America's real estate boom came to a seemingly ordinary subdivision called the Villages at Queen Creek, where the whipsaw of easy credit has led to some extraordinary times.

They were the best of times, for a while. The empty homes, though, raise serious doubts about what comes next.

"You drive around this subdivision and there are 'For Sale' signs everywhere,"

"Sometimes the neighbors don't like you so much because you're one of the reasons the values are declining,"

31 comments:

Anonymous said...

Greg Sh!tbird doesn't think so.

Shakster said...

Greg Who!!

Anonymous said...

wasn't the Phoenix market collapse last week? or last month? or June? May?

You've said the end for Phoenix is here about 50 times already

Anonymous said...

BTW,and off topic-The Mozirra loyalty pledge bands are a psychological play to to get alot of employees to voluntarily quit.
It's legal-
It reduces the amount of Pink Slips handed out.
It's great for PR when people voluntarily quit.
Employees should refuse them,but should be forewarned that the Harrassement will start,and corporations have a whole bible on the tactics that may be used without recourse.Best options -Quit,and be happy,or start an internal gang of traitors ,and take the pigs down from the inside.

ForWhomTheTollBuilds said...

About a week before the August Sub Prime panic, that magnanimous Phoenix Realtor, Greg Swan, posted one of Ben Stein's Pollyanish articles on how none of this matters. I wrote a polite, but pointed rebuttal which he moderated out.

I wrote the following back to him (also moderated out), and in light of what happened soon after I have to say that I feel better than the time I sold my place and pocketed $100K.

_________________________________

Nice of you to moderate out my perfectly well written dissenting opinion last night.

I sat yesterday, mouth agape, thinking about the baffling amount of data on the unfolding crisis that you had to wade through to come up with this "proof" that it's all nothing and wondering, "Does he KNOW that he is full of it, or could he somehow be 'honest in his own mind?'"

Now I have my answer.

The loss of the family home will be a defining moment in millions of American childhoods over the coming three to four years and you and I both know that with a few clever turns of phrase, you will brush both that and Chicken Little aside claiming "victory for the light".

But there are people out there who know the truth about what you have helped perpetrate in these critical moments. Whats worse, your past indicates that you know it too.

Good luck sir, and be careful to avoid the equity tranches.

redshoes said...

Bonfire of the vanities!

Let them all eat cake!

Frank@NeverColdCall.com said...

I read the whole article yesterday. It sums up the wealthy-looking "nouveau riche" who contaminate that state. Too bad they didn't profile Scottsdale specifically because that dump has the highest concentration of those about-to-be-foreclosed idiots.

Andrew from Russia said...

Globalization roolz!

The more I read this blog, the more curious similarities I find to the first Russian housing bubble (which hasn't popped yet)!
The "nobody home" episode parallels our experience with "high-end" estates in the "green" northwestern area of Moscow that started the bubble around 2000. In the evening, the buildings stand in a gloomy contrast to neighboring Soviet blocks - almost all apartment windows in a 30-story skyscraper are black! Oops, that didn't sell well! No prob, let's relabel this as an "investment property" and move on...

Then, another construction site posts a billboard that reads: "Apartments for sale. 9330000". Is 9330000 a phone number or an apartment price? To hell with that, it doesn't sell anyway! Let's invoke "hypotheca" (an obscure Greek word to which "mortgage" translates in Russian) and sell the unaesthetic concrete sarcophagus as an upper-middle-class buy-to-live property, placing the financial burden on the shoulders of banks.

Now the financial sector has caught the hot potato and advertises mortgage loan financing as a "reliable long-term investment". Go figure!

And of course, the gov't only muddies the waters when it gets in. Hail the "Young Family" social mortgage program! Young Family? The population is decreasing! Yet, this intervention contributes positively by sending property prices even further.

I don't know the precise Russian equivalents for "foreclosure" and "repossession" - but we'll surely learn these a few years down the road.

sheepvest said...

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I'm going to Phoenix next week to buy distressed chattel and gold teeth.

Anonymous said...

This ties into the RATE CUT, and the inflation and dolloar collapse...

CONSERVATIVES and LIBERALS HAVE NO REPRESENTATION..THIS 'election' IS A TOTAL FRAUD!! (2 Ratings) 5-Oct-07 04:21 pm Contrary to all the bull@#$% you hear nonstop in the Fascist/Communist Globalist new world order Media you cant tell that real conservatives have no REPRESENTATION OR POWER in this country.

And 'liberals' DONT HAVE ANY EITHER.

Was eating out this morning and im sorry to say i was FORCED to view the new world order mind control TV 'news'.

They had the 'conservative' FOX 'news' on and i saw a couple of Mitt Romney adds.

The first video clip was old Mitt saying we have had abortion on demand for 30 years and why not keep it that way. (for the record i dont even really give a sht if some woman want to kill her child and everyone wants to cheer this as 'legal' but it just goes to show you all that bullsht you read constantly in the new world order media abot how much 'power' the Christian right has is enough to make me laugh my ass off.)

the next video clip was off old Mitt in the same debate setting say how he forced the 'gun lobby' to stand down and that hes saving the children.

Again, i cant help but wet my pants laughing at new world order media telling me for the last YEAR that 'Mitt Romney is the Conservatives Choice"! (I must have seen 25 articles with a cover story about Mitt being the 'Conservatives choice in 2008'.

So for those keeping score at home.

Guiliani whos a 'conservative' pro Abortion and not only anti 2nd amendment but was said to cheer Clintons gun ban. Pro open borders and illegal alien amnesty

and his law firm is behind the North American union.

Romney whos the 'conservatives choice' pro abortion and anti 2nd amendment. he also has stated that any border patrol officer who shoots as invaders should be in jail.

Fred Tompson whos also a CFR member pro North American Union, open borders and illegal alien.

and need i mention the king illegal alien amnesty pimp John McCain?

So there ya have it 'conservatives' YOU HAVE NO REPRESENTATION AT ALL.

There is NOBODY RUNNING FOR THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY WHO IS EVEN CLOSE TO BEING CONSERVATIVE ON ANY MAJOR ISSUE.

Its a JOKE, this 'country' (or rather GLOBALIST MARKET) is a JOKE, the MEDIA IS JOKE and this 'election is a JOKE!.

NEWSFLASH KIDS THIS AINT A 'free country' ANYMORE!!!

'for any bye the PEOPLE' MY ASS!!!

95% want safe borders and NOBODY RUNNING IS FOR SAFE BORDERS

85% reject Amensty for Illegal aliens EVERYBODY RUNNING IS FOR AMENSTY.

75% want our troops home EVERYBODY RUNNING IS PRO WAR.

The Baby Doomers are seeing the last of this nation LINE OF CREDIT BEING USED UP IN THE SANDS OF IRAQ JUST AS THEY...THINK....THEY ARE GETTING READY TO RETIRE AND DRAW THEIR SOCIAL SECURITY CHECKS THEY HAVE BEEN PAYING FOR OVER THE LAST 50 YEARS!!! (every DIME of that MONEY has been handed over to the BANKSTER SLAVE MASTERS WHO OWN THIS NATION FOR THE 'interest' on all those little paper notes they print up for 'us' WHY DOESNT THE PHUCKING GOVERNMENT JUST PRINT UP ITS OWN DAMB 'money' AND SAVE US ALL THE BILLIONS IN INTEREST...LIKE IT USED TO DO????)

WHAT DO YOU KNOW JUST LIKE LAST 'election' EVERYBODY 'running' IS PRO-WAR, PRO-OPEN BORDERS, PRO-ILLEGAL ALIEN AMENSTY....WHEN 75%-99% OF THE PUBLIC REJECTS ALL OF THOSE THINGS!!!!

EARTH TO THE 'free press' THIS AINT REPRESENTATION...THIS IS TRYANNY!!!!

This entire 'election' is a total FRAUD.

Screw you guys Im voting for SAFE BORDERS, ENDING THE ILLEGAL ALIEN INVSAION AND BRINGING MY FRIENDS HOME FROM IRAQ!!

You can keep supporting the new world order 'right' or the new world order 'left' I WILL NEVER DO SO AGAIN.

http://www.thought-criminal.org/2007/08/...

And i will AVOID the New World Order MEDIA AS MUCH AS I CAN

Metroplexual said...

They are making more dessert(apple pie, etc.), and desert. Just look at the ever expanding Sahara and Gobi

Anonymous said...

What's next? reasonable prices

ONE neighborhood? How about thousands of 'hoods?

Anonymous said...

The end came so quick

Anonymous said...

Greg Swann just admitted that you'll lose money if you buy a home today

"You'll almost certainly lose money buying now"

http://www.bloodhoundrealty.com/AZRep.php?Gfile=AZRepublic/203.php

Anonymous said...

Bush is fighting for the rights of illegal immigrant felons who claimed they did not have the assistance of the Mexican Consulate at trial. Bush wants their convictions thrown out because the police did not inform these rapists, murderers and drug dealers that the Mexican consulate could assist them. The convicted felons did have a trial with a court appointed defense attorney paid for by American taxpayers.

http://tinyurl.com/2htmfc


El Presidente Jorge Bushitto

Anonymous said...

The Phoenix realtrolls are saying that homes there should be worth more because they are landlocked and safe from floods and hurricanes.

Anonymous said...

REALTORS hope nobody sees articles like these

Anonymous said...

Phoenix: There is no "there" there

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
The Phoenix realtrolls are saying that homes there should be worth more because they are landlocked and safe from floods and hurricanes.

October 07, 2007 10:50 PM

I honestly can't believe they are saying such nonsense! It is the f#$KIN desert so they should be worth a lot less than the ocean just like any other land locked place. Everyone knows ocean front pays a serious premium. Fkin idiot realtwhores. It is embarassing to be in the same business!!!

rich in fla

Frank@NeverColdCall.com said...

The comment about the dark estates in Moscow sounds very familiar to me....

My last year in Phoenix I lived in the condos at Kierland and moved into them in March '06. We had almost no neighbors and all the windows were dark at night; when we asked about this everyone said most units are owned by snowbirds who are only around in the winter.

So winter came and went, and still no neighbors. There were a handful of snowbirds, but not many, and even through winter the windows stayed dark at night.

The real truth is that nobody actually owned most of the units. They're vacant. And that was in early '06 ... I can only imagine how bad it is now.

I moved out of there in March '07 to leave shithole Arizona for good. In that year I never met any of our unfriendly neighbors or anyone in the community at all except for one snowbird family from Idaho. Typical Scottsdale for you.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Greg Swann just admitted that you'll lose money if you buy a home today

=============
No he didn't.
Read the article again.

He's mocking Cramer, who said that.

Anonymous said...

Swann is mocking Cramer but that's his quote verbatim:

"You'll almost certainly lose money buying now"

I guess he was tired of looking like the town idiot

Anonymous said...

Swann's quote:

"All real estate is particular: Which buyer? Which seller? Which house? Which ownership strategy? Which anticipated return? If you're looking for a residence you intend to occupy for less than three years -- rent. You'll almost certainly lose money buying now. "

Anonymous said...

in 2003 while shopping forclosures the going prices were 50,000 to 85,000, maybe if tou bougjt one then you still might be able to sell it today for 80,000 t0 120,000 or a profit of apx 40 percent even if distressed today, if demanding to buy lowest...

John said...

Greetings All,

I am writing a paper for school on the housing market and how it has become detached from economic fundamentals. Can someone please let me know where is Phoenix I can find row after row of abandoned or boarded up homes, or row after row of homes with "for sale" signs. My reason for asking is that I am interested in visiting this area to take some of my own photos and interview some local residents (if there are any).

Thanks everyone.

Keith, keep up the great work.

Anonymous said...

Greg Swann edits off my every post to his blog.

It is his property, but the transparency is laughable.

I can understand why reality is worse than his fantasy. It sucks in Phoenix for realtors.


On the other hand, I don't see whole neighborhoods devastated and people on soup lines.

The unemployment here is still amazingly low. If the illegals are leaving, good, but I don't personally know anyone in dire straights.

I live in North Glendale around Arrowhead and although there are a few unsold properties, there is no blight and green pools that I see.

Where are all these abandoned houses you are talking about?

How come people are still moving here in droves?

Anonymous said...

It cracks me up that Frank "Never Cold Call" cannot compose more than two or three sentences without using the word Scottsdale in one of them. Have fun in Newport Beach. You're a loser with serious problems. Just move on guy.

Anonymous said...

and the ubdistressed were 87,000

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

It cracks me up that Frank "Never Cold Call" cannot compose more than two or three sentences without using the word Scottsdale in one of them. Have fun in Newport Beach. You're a loser with serious problems. Just move on guy.

October 08, 2007 7:07 AM

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Ha ha. So true. I think Frankie really misses Scottsdale but is afraid to admit it.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

It cracks me up that Frank "Never Cold Call" cannot compose more than two or three sentences without using the word Scottsdale in one of them. Have fun in Newport Beach. You're a loser with serious problems. Just move on guy.

October 08, 2007 7:07 AM

=============

Ha ha. So true. I think Frankie really misses Scottsdale but is afraid to admit it.

----------------------------

So funny! What an arrogant ass! The guy practically devotes his life to bashing a city he used to live in. Dr. Phil could have a field day with his "issues". Obviously obsessed with image and status, he must have moved after tiring from simply blending in with the D-bags he attempts to separate himself from. Got unfortunate news for ya buddy: fake, nouveau riche, D-bags are everywhere not just Scottsdale. Instead of obsessing, you should just try ignoring them.

AnonyRuss said...

I have seen no boarded-up vacant houses here in the Phoenix burbs (like those Baltimore rowhouses used so efficiently on The Wire), but there really are huge numbers of vacant houses here, especially in the newer suburbs and the newest developments within those suburbs. There are large-scale vacancies in subdivisions in Pinal County (Queen Creek/Maricopa/Casa Grande).

Somewhat closer-in areas (than Pinal Co.) like Surprise, Goodyear, and Peoria have neighborhoods with tell-tale signs of large number of vacancies. About a year ago, I drove around one section of a large subdivision called Sierra Montana in western Surprise. It was an area with Beazer houses, and at least 3/4 of this completed section was vacant. Most of the houses were speculator-owned, and a few were still builder-owned. I suspect many are now bank-owned.

It was eery even a year ago. Tell-tale signs of vacancy like no window coverings or piled-up flyers and phone books. Few cars around, even though it was Saturday. I got out of my car and walked up and down these streets and one could confirm vacancy for most of the houses. Plenty of for sale signs, of course. Very quiet. I came across one group of kids playing ball in the street; at least, they did not have to worry too much about traffic.