September 27, 2007

There are well over 4.5 million used homes for sale (on the MLS), plus all those new homes and FSBOs. Can you imagine being one of 'em?


Someone try to figure out how many homes are really unwanted and for sale in the US today.

'Cause it's not just the record 4.58 million the NAR reports, it's the investor-owned units being rented out "until the market settles", it's the foreclosures and pre-foreclosures, it's the new homes, it's the spec homes, it's the cancelled contracts returned to market, it's the homes and condos still being built, it's the FSBO and Craigslist homes, and it's all the homes buyers have pulled off the MLS for now waiting to go back on.

It's millions. Millions and millions and millions. And like kudzu or tribbles, they just keep coming.

So, my question: Can you imagine trying to sell a home in this environment? And especially at 2005 or 2006 prices?

Get a grip folks. If you want to move your unwanted home, you're gonna have to slash the price. Just ask the folks at Hovnanian.

Classic mania. Classic crash. And now there's all this inventory that nobody wants and nobody wants to admit to themselves what its true value is.

Damn, this is gonna end ugly.

40 comments:

Frank@NeverColdCall.com said...

I know multiple people in Phoenix/Scottsdale who still actually believe they're going to sell their houses for hyper-inflated prices. They're barely into the denial stage.....

DB said...

I love the Trouble with the Tribbles photo! Perfect. Question... why do you think the MSM does not even mention those other backlogs of homes you list? First they are cheerleaders. Then they only report the tip of the iceberg when it's sooooooooo obvious there's more to the story. Why wouldn't any of them want to get out front and break the real nitty gritty? Wholly bought and owned bu the NAR?

Anonymous said...

www.rylanddc.com

Developer with soooo much inventory they need to auction it off!!!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/20995195

Diana Olick reports DR Horton is also having an auction.

Agent #777 said...

A guy who works with me who is also a broker told me about a lady "investor" who mentioned to him yesterday that the two investment homes she bought for 330k less than 2 years ago, the same model is now being sold by the builder for 250K. And the subdivision is less than half built out! And she could only rent those for 1300 and 1400/month, when she had wanted 2000. And get this: she now has a third rental, because she is moving out of the third house she bought to live in back then to move into a new one she closed on for 500K from the same builder just 3 days ago! I am going to get an address for these so I can see if she has mortgages, or if she is just independently wealthy and can afford to throw her money away.

Anonymous said...

Here's another subtitle for this blog:

"HP: It's Going to Get Worse Before It Gets Better"

SPECTRE of Deflation said...

No, but then I never believed all the bullshit concerning housing. A house is to live in. PERIOD! It's not an investment vehicle unless the numbers are right, and you have a very long term horizon with your investment.

All these assclowns running around wheeling and dealing RE are toast, and they have no one to blame but themselves.

westwest888 said...

The emails I get from builders are ridiculous. I typically send replies asking for the 2008 price, not the 2004 price. $899k for a loft apartment 1500 sq. ft. in Arlington, VA. $1,001,000 for a (5th floor) penthouse in Falls Church, VA. $450k for a 610 sq. ft. apartment in the Waterview. The joke is on someone!

Anonymous said...

here in chicago no one even shows up at the auctions.

westwest888 said...

The emails I get from builders are ridiculous. I typically send replies asking for the 2008 price, not the 2004 price. $899k for a loft apartment 1500 sq. ft. in Arlington, VA. $1,001,000 for a (5th floor) penthouse in Falls Church, VA. $450k for a 610 sq. ft. apartment in the Waterview. The joke is on someone!

westwest888 said...

NEWS FLASH

Jim Cramer goes on the Today Show, says "DON'T buy a home! You WILL lose money."

New Jersey Realtors group throws a fit, says that real estate is local. Demands Today Show offers a correction, demands a retraction from Cramer.

Cramer goes on CNBC, enters into a rant, says Seattle and zip code 10005 in Manhattan are the only places that have gone up, refuses to retract.

No youtube clips yet...

the other trader said...

I am watching Cramer on CNBC as I write this.

It seems as if he has been reading this blog.

EVERYTHING we have been saying;
"no bottom in sight"
"no money available for mortgages"
"people do not have the down-payment"
blah, blah, blah..

Congrats to all here! The main stream media is now starting to admit the trouble we have here in the real estate industry.

Dollar at new record low, and wheat, corn, soy are crankin'

Look for massive food price increases in the next 2 to 3 months.

Iron Ore is going to be raised 30 to 40 percent by the major producers.

Ahhh, I think that is a problem.

I am a Treky at heart, but have not watched an episode in years, a decade maybe.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

From itulip, an illustration of our "Frankenstein Economy", just in time to start thinking about Halloween.


http://tinyurl.com/34o7yq

Chris said...

And has anyone noticed how many existing homes listed are EMPTY in the photos? How long can people sit on these homes waiting to sell?

vegas crash watcher said...

Americans' wealth and self-image is tied to their house. For supporting the government even though it has demonstrated only incompetence and corruption, I hope they lose everything. Americans are rotten to their core.

ALI G. said...

You guys are so full of it

DOW
+25.04

13,903.19

Heading into 14K and maybe 16K by end of yr

DOPES said...

MY FRIEND JUST SOLD HIS BROWNSTONE FOR 1.2 MILLION.
.
.
BOUGHT IT FOR 800,000.00
.
.
SOME CRASH!
.
.
.
DOPES!
.
.
KEEP ON WAITING!
.
.
AND RENTING!

Anonymous said...

LA Times / KBH says 5.1 million homes for sale.

k.w. - southern ca. said...

People will do anything to maintain the status of being "wealthy" (which needs to be redefined as well).

I thought this quote rather humerous from the Bloomberg arctle:
"[...Some economists say falling home values, by making owners feel less wealthy, reduce consumers' propensity to spend...]"

Most of these people have been living in debt for years, and were never "wealthy" in the first place.
This is the grand illusion the housing market has created - the appearance of wealth.

Anonymous said...

I think word Cheerleader is too mild a term for NAR shills. I think the word Fluffer would be more appropriate.

az_mtb said...

New-home sales plunge 8.3% to seven-year low

http://tinyurl.com/yozoak

.
.
.
Heckuvajob everyone! "Mission accomplished!"

borkafatty said...

Keith I can give you 5.1 Million Reasons we are screwed...

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/

k.w. - southern ca. said...

Many of these media people are entangled in the housing mess themselves - they are cheerleading to protect their interests.

No one wants to take a loss for something they've invested in, but there is *no way* this over-glut of housing is going to move without massive price reductions.


DB said...
I love the Trouble with the Tribbles photo! Perfect. Question... why do you think the MSM does not even mention those other backlogs of homes you list? First they are cheerleaders. Then they only report the tip of the iceberg when it's sooooooooo obvious there's more to the story. Why wouldn't any of them want to get out front and break the real nitty gritty? Wholly bought and owned bu the NAR?

good-bye irene said...

The entire run up since 2003 has been due to the easy credit fraud. The world has wised up to us and that is why the ABCP market has locked. There is nothing the government can do about it. Getting the GSE's or HUD to insure mortgages will only result in the complete destruction of our economy. As our economy continues to erode and socialism creeps into the mainstream, corporations will move their operations AND headquarters to more business friendly countries, leaving a shell of a tax base.

Anonymous said...

My folks dropped the price by 20K on their condo, sold within 2 weeks. 3 other units for sale in their community are still for sale and were listed for a month or so before my folks put their unit up for sale.

borkafatty said...

to funny

http://www.bullnotbull.com/img2007/b52-ben.jpg

blt1984 said...

Cramer on CNBC this morning, telling everyone NOT to buy a home: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=533257614

realtor headhunter said...

Save a house, ride a realtor!!!

It will be a cold day in hell before I belive the corrupt NAR and their cronies.

Hey go buy some stock, we are in a bull market again.Go buy some tech man. Apple is a great guy and so is google.Caveat emptor!

Batman said...

The new saying of 2007:

"Another day, another record low for the dollar"

Anonymous said...

http://tinyurl.com/3b6shx


Cramer defending his statement telling people to not buy a house. I like how him and the otehrs on CNBC rip on the NAR too. Can the NAR get anymore discredited?

http://tinyurl.com/3b6shx

Anonymous said...

Hey, Dopes is Back!

I love this guy. Not a peep out of him for the past month, but now that the Dow is close to its all time high - he's back with a vengence!

BTW Dopes, I'm glad your friend was able to sell his place. One less FB in the world is a good thing.

Oh, did you hear about the record house inventory? How about how sales are crashing to multi decade lows? Have you read about how much the dollar has sank in value this past month? How about how gold and oil are exploding in price?

But keep it up! Hey, Ipods and Iphones are selling like hotcakes! Everything is GREAT!
Jymkata

Anonymous said...

did you read what your hero Ms. Olick has to say...and I quote...

"sales really and truly slowed over the spring and summer, but are picking up this month. I think sellers have dropped prices, and now may be a great time to buy before prices start skooching back up again. "

So much for the MSM coming around.

Budvar said...

ALI G. said...

You guys are so full of it
DOW +25.04

13,903.19 Heading into 14K and maybe 16K by end of yr


Oh yeah right, $14k of Dow up $25.
$14k of gold (19oz) up $133
$14k of silver (1033oz) up $186.

Kinda makes your 25 buck return on your Dow look like shit to me.

Anonymous said...

DOPES said...
MY FRIEND JUST SOLD HIS BROWNSTONE FOR 1.2 MILLION.
.
.
BOUGHT IT FOR 800,000.00
.
.
SOME CRASH!
.
.
.
DOPES!
.
.
KEEP ON WAITING!
.
.
AND RENTING!

September 27, 2007 4:25 PM
-----------
Good to see you DOPES. Weclome to your "Bull Trap"

Ciao Bitch

PS - Your friend just moved into a rental, and is breathing a sigh of relief Humm?? I wonder what to make of that?

Anonymous said...

I'm just glad this guy is stupid enough to sign his comments with "DOPES" everytime.

I just feel sorry for this one last retard, hopeing for the big 14k dow as if it's the magic number.

It's o.k. mr Dopes retard, It was'nt your fault you were born that way.

Just keep signing your comments "Dopes"




Oh, mr Dopes, say these words out loud three times real fast,

I'm we todd did
I'm we todd did
I'm we todd did

the other trader said...

Hey Dopes,

What is the address of that home, the one your buddy made a cool few 100k on? After all, it is PUBLIC information. You are not breaking laws sharing the facts here.
We can all Zillow it and see if you are telling us the truth.
Then celebrate the prowess of your friend, together. What do ya say?
If it is true?
He probably has a few more up his sleeve, huh? (properties)


Listen people, the news just gets worse and worse.
And REMEMBER, there are things happening that are not being published.

Failed closings, (I'd love to see the numbers on "already reported sales" that are being denied to the lack of money/liquidity with the brokers!! Are the numbers even being reported to ANY angency?).

Even worse,
Walk aways, (The people that have put 5k, maybe 15k, maybe 25k, but have seen the "auctioned prices" in their newly bought neighborhoods being accepted well below their price (minus the deposit)!!! Common sense says "walk away". Eat the cash deposit. (Better deals are coming.)
Are these numbers being calculated? by anyone?

The inventory will begin to SWELL, and soon...

Then what?

I'll tell you what people, let me give you all a little information.
Check your pension funds.
See if your's has ANY homebuilders in it's portfolio.

If they do? DUMP THEM!!! You have ALREADY taken a beating, and it WILL get worse.

RUN don't walk, to exit your money from those funds!!!

PAY ATTENTION!!!

THOSE WHO DO NOT, WILL BE SLAUGHTERED.

Public pension funds, to the best of my research (so far), will be the ones holding the most sub-prime debt, so LOOK!!! And act accordingly.

The quicker we clean this mess up, the quicker we can move on...

the other trader said...

good-bye irene said...

"The entire run up since 2003 has been due to the easy credit fraud."

Not necessarily fraud. The money was there to be loaned out.
China was recycling it's interest for years. Japan too.

They stopped.

Fraud was accomplished with the USE of this money.


Budvar,
Well said with that PM ratio comparison to the Dow.
Nice looking...
It will get ALOT better (the ratio, for the PM)

Batman said...

The new saying of 2007:

"Another day, another record low for the dollar"

I say,

get used to it.
Another 36 BILLION injected by the FED today.?!?!?!?

They are breaking records too.
Smashing them even!!!

I am swimming in the numbers...

and sometimes, even though I am a very good swimmer, it feels like I am drowning in the depth of the situation.

Shakster said...

FB's will be having a super hard time trying to sell with the incentives,and reduced prices from the Big builders.Heard on the Radio that alternative energy(solar ,wind),with grid intertie regulations changing infavor of the homeownwer are being introduced to sell homes by the Big boys.If the average joe has a reduction in energy bills,upgrade options towards power production,and the states mandate that utilities buy the excess at a fair price,then joe homebuyer is gonna go for that deal before the others.
Let's say those ASSH@les at KB are offering 15,000 dollars off the list price which is applied to the full solar/wind /switchgear/inverters/utility intertie cost of about 30,000 thousand.That adds 15grand to the loan,but with a special finaning plan will increase the monthly payment by a small amount, say 100.00 bucks appx.That is offset by the completely reduced energy bills.Then add in the potential to sell power.This will be huge for the big builders.The Global warming tree huggers are pushing this as we speak.
Downside-all FBs,are now Totally FBed. Alternative energy is the next BUBBLE.Think about it.No more power failures anywhere,less strain on the grid,no new land ,and power plants to permit,or buy.The consumers pay for,and maintain the production.
The maintenence companies,and technicians will spring up like weeds,Wall street will have a fresh supply of start up companies to bait the gamblers with,and Siemens,BP,and Kyocera are ready for it.
As for Inventory? That's worse than anyone knows. ---

Hey Dopes,What about housing?Anything negative happening there?

Anonymous said...

DOW = home prices

Anonymous said...

I would say that 8 million homes are in serious need of being sold. Demand is about 2 million . That leaves 6 millon excess supply .

Anonymous said...

Cycles cycles cycles.

The dollar has been down before it has always recovered therefore it will recover this time too.

At least I hope that's how it works.

I can't wait for my weimer marks to be valuable again. Also my confederate money.