What's the next housing crash / mortgage meltdown shoe to drop?
September 11, 2007
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A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
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48 comments:
I am interested in the 140 billion in short term corporate paper coming due the next 10 days in London.
After that will housing be the grinch that stole Christmas.
I am short on Best Buy,Sears Holding,JCP, and Harley.
Interbank lending seizes up again & Central Bank Liquidity injections do not even serve as a topical anesthetic. Investment banks, hedgefunds and mortgage lenders all start to nosedive, pushing many into bankruptcy. It all spills over into the equities markets in the form of a 10% drop from current levels. Overnight funds rates are slashed and we live with a new era of stagflation for years to come.
Formal SEC investigation into countrywide home loans for starters.
Which homebuilder to go under first is anyones guess but mine is beazer.
Casey serin re-appears as senator craigs new page.
Oh, easy call here.
A lot of banks will be reporting their 3rd qtr earnings real soon now. When they do, one or more is going to fess up to big losses. Then, we'll see if a bank run ensues.
Got popcorn?
Got a dollar hedge?
Countrywide and Mozilo formal SEC investigation
.
Credit debt
.
One of the big home builders to go bankrupt. I think BZH is the frontrunner, HOV and SPF not too far behind.
And prolly on the 18th along with a Fed rate cut, NAHB/HMI to slip under its all time low of 20, reached during the last downturn.
heard a commercial on the radio for Standard Pacific homes. sounds pretty desperate. don't think I've heard a home builder commercial on the radio before.
WAMU will soon restate its earnings from the last 2-3 years as losses and then all hell will break loose!
Mark my words. I know \"/
Formal SEC investigation...
You're joking, right?
commerical paper!!
Yeah, it's the third quarter announcement season that will crush any hope of a quick rebound. That's why October is such a fun month in the stock market world.
you gotta love this blog too:
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=1055
CFC bankruptcy (I hope before Oct puts expire).
Yes, it looks dire. Yes, it all strains credulity. Will anything bad transpire? No, and here is why:
1) 2008 is an election year in the U.S.
2) The 2008 Olympic games are in Beijing
3) The central banks need each other as all are in over their heads.
The bankers and politicians will "fix" it so they retain power and control. Individual currencies may be rendered worth-less, but that is all relative, isn't it?
The day is coming when gold and equivalents will be made illegal for use in financial transactions.
Automobiles
My teenage son has a friend in suburban chicago who works at one of those huge auto auctions. He is telling tales of auto dealers dumping cars. Also classic cherry "collector" cars going for cheap. Ancedotal, but I believe it to be true.
.
ENRON stock will be found to be worthless!
WHAT?
never mind
.
The other shoe will be a piano drop.
The next shoe to drop?
It's already happening. No buyers.
Hey, Keith, here is a good one for showing how there will be lots of "fire sales" soon...
Check out this hilarious listing on Redfin...I can't believe they have the nerve to list this one!
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=476380
I think we are going to hear about tough times in the European housing market next all the way from Lisbon over to Talinn.
There are the same fundamental problems with housing all over the world and I think Europe is next. The Caribbean and Asia should follow.
THE AMERO!
it's raining shoes
-got helmet?
From the Ft Myers News-Press on 9-11-07
"Email threats have Realtors taking precautions
LEE COUNTY: People have been receiving death threats through their email and Realtors appear to be the main targets. Now, more people are coming forward claiming they received the same threatening letter.
The email says things like, "I was hired to kill you" and "Respond if you want to live." Now the FBI and local authorities are investigating the threats. But real estate agents we talked say they are taking action to keep safe.
"It is very frightening that someone would go to this extent to do these kinds of things, especially with September 11th. You know the memories are still dangling there," said Realtor Donna Mason.
The FBI confirms that the threats are targeting real estate agents - particularly Realtors in Southwest Florida.
Many realtors say they aren't sure why they're being targeted in the first place..."
"The day is coming when gold and equivalents will be made illegal for use in financial transactions."
There you go again, Americans thinking America is the rest of planet Earth!!
You think a dictat from King George or wall st will stop the rest of the planet dealing in gold and silver?
Get a grip sunshine!!
Lets go along with this to its logical conclusion. The USA goes for Gold confiscation again, and offers a price of 10c a ton for Gold, you think that the world price for gold will be 10c a ton? Why do you think all the ETFs in PMs are stored in London? I can tell you the answer to any request to Barclays PLC to send all that gold and silver back to the US asap will be "What part of the phrase "F*ck off!!" do you not understand?".
Was there ever any doubt. State accuses Crisp of fraud:
http://bakersfieldbubble.blogspot.com/2007/09/state-asscues-crisp-cole.html
I was at THE CRANE in Barbados a short while ago on vacation. It's a hotel/condo/resort type project. QUESTION? Who are going to buy these things now? The rich are too clever to dump cash into a falling assets like real estate and us common folks can't get cheap money anymore so what happens?
CFC closes its doors.
Project mayhem is progressing nicely...Sir.
How about a weakening dollar and mediocre markets that send those foreign investments (that prop up our credit driven personal and federal spending) back to the their home currencies? That would push up interest rates here (pushing down on the economy), make variable rate debt much worse, and further lower the value of the dollar -- all of which leads to more flight by foreign investors.
will gold drop with the next shoe?
HAHHAHA...love the ghetto ride in the 3rd pic (redfin link).
Tangent :
Please FED, do not drop rates. :)
I think it's going to be the Fed meeting. It can go one of two ways. The market gets the 1/4 point they want, there is a rally, and then smart money bones everyone and tanks the dow to 11000 and the S&P to 1200. Alternately, the Fed holds their ground and maybe drops the discount rate 1/4 point, sending the tone for correction.
Re seizing up and 10% correction:
What we manufacture is money through
interest in ever increasing degrees
over last 30 years...that is the
matrix of our economy...How could
a correction of any aspect be limited
to 10% since it all seems to be leveraged one upon and throughout
the other: the entire financial
edifice is at risk. It holds or not.
I think not. Sorry...
PKK (grandma)
New Time Magazine cover
.
Gold will plummet to below $75!
What?
Nevermind!
.
Headline in New York Post today: "Countryslide"
Countrywide is looking for another bailout to get money to continue operations.
It's not formal yet but the SEC is looking for fraud at some subprime lenders and they're looking at insider selling at some mortgage companies.
Also, the first of many investor class action lawsuits against Countrywide has just been launched.
Law firms are adding new groups to their firms just to handle the rash of pending lawsuits against just about everybody who made a profit during the bubble. I can't help but believe that any company that loaned money to somebody who obviously couldn't afford to pay will lose in court.
As usual, the lawyers are the only ones who profit from this mess.
When the fed does not lower next week.
Remeber Greg Swann? The Arizona Realtwhore who told everyone to buy Phoenix RE in late 2005, then launched a nuclear attack on bubble blogs?
His own readers voted an award for a blog post that recommended sellers price their homes at 5% appreciation from 2004 price levels, then take the midpoint between that and the last sale price on a comparable home. Swann, while snidely remarking that he doesn't like "bubbleheads" (boo hoo for us), adds "It’s possible that the price you arrive at by this method will be too low for current market conditions. But, at a minimum, you will have slapped your sellers upside the head with a cold wet fish, which just might get them thinking more rationally about pricing to the market."
Swann will never admit he was wrong. He's too stubborn -- and as a realtor, candor is not his strong suit. But at least he's starting to face reality.
I am the other SHOE.
U.S. National Debt, 11 Sep 2007,
$ 9,015,574,030,000
(nine thousand billion usd)
Bernanke: Huge trade deficits
must not continue.
Me: Employees conned into holding
Enron, Worldcon ….
NOLA conned on levees, fema ….
Homedebtors conned with fake appraisals, deceptive terms, assurances from quasi-fiduciaries ….
Kids conned about health, schools, their future, dying dollar.
Weak pensions & SS con workers into retirement poverty.
Government-of-the-money, since public funding still taboo.
Young addicts conned-by-omission into booze, dope, syn-food ….
Our debtor government muting stigma of debt.
Acceptance of birth defects as a cost of business.
Stop me before I explode !
Maybe the telly will help.
What to watch; Britney, or Paris ?
The NAR is reporting that the shoe
pictured is actually going up.
I predict:
"WaMu" will become the classic expression for economic calamity.
It's looking like a nice ochestrated takedown after Sept 18th when the fed does NOT lower at all. The boys will smack the markets, G&S, and prop the dollar temporarily all the while hedging. Then two weeks later... emergency cuts in the prime. Profit coming and going.
hi
"There you go again, Americans thinking America is the rest of planet Earth!!
You think a dictat from King George or wall st will stop the rest of the planet dealing in gold and silver?"
Of course not budvar. But what makes you think the other central banks won't go along with the Fed to save their skins? In a fiat money structure, gold is the one thing that can mess up their fix-it plans. Do you honestly think they give a damn about our pitiful stashes of coins or those ETF shares? You can speculate all you want about a black market in metals and I'm sure it will spring up here and elsewhere. But the transactions will be illegal, perhaps tied to the anti-terrorism laws, and those caught will face harsh punishment.
The bankers and politicians will do whatever is necessary to fix their problems - count on it.
My call is Wells Fargo - biggest cockroach out there nobody knows and everybody loves. How they've skated this long is beyond me.
RECOVERY - it's already started.. That's the other shoe.
Everything is fine in housing because it is undervalued by 25% nationwide according to economist David Ranson. He says based on commodity prices especially metals houses are 25% undervalued.
So if you are a FB go to the bank tomorrow and get a home equity loan basing the value of your home on the fact gold and silver are going up. I am sure the banker will see the light and totally look the other way on the fact that you can't afford the payment. The video is on the MSN money website if anyone is interested in a goog laugh.
"But what makes you think the other central banks won't go along with the Fed to save their skins?"
4billion Indians and Chinese for a start, 300 tons a year imported into India alone all in private hands. You think they'll give it all up just to help the feckless American bankrupts?
Do you seriously believe the world price for gold stayed stagnant for 40 years at $35 do you? Nixon closed the gold window in 71 because the French were buying dollars with both hands and exchanging them for half price US treasury gold!!
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