September 04, 2007

HousingPANIC Glimpse of Reality of the Day


"The demand for mortgage brokers in Las Vegas was so strong that "every stripper, waiter and bartender on the Strip had a broker's license"

- Boyd Nyborg, a former mortgage broker who now tends bar at the Tao Las Vegas.

(We just knew HP'ers. We just knew.)

39 comments:

Anonymous said...

I had um "massage therapist" as me last year if I wanted to buy a house as she just got her license.

Mortgage brokers...the worlds 2nd oldest profession!!!

MM

Anonymous said...

Back to the old jobs. Maybe some will have to go out of the county to work at one of the legal brothels.

Anonymous said...

Back on the pole for the ladies, but men will have to go back to drug dealing

Anonymous said...

mom? is that you on the pole?

Anonymous said...

Zip Code 89141 in Las Vegas. My goodness what a crash!! Prices are up $60K YOY, the horror of it all. August 2007 the supposed month when nobody could get a loan anymore has the highest price in a year.

When will you fools just give up already? Read my lips: you will never leave the 1 bedroom shithole.

Month, number of sales, avg.price
08-2007 46 $498,000.00
07-2007 72 $452,000.00
06-2007 58 $424,000.00
05-2007 62 $413,000.00
04-2007 52 $443,000.00
03-2007 59 $411,000.00
02-2007 51 $451,000.00
01-2007 72 $447,000.00
12-2006 66 $429,000.00
11-2006 55 $451,000.00
10-2006 81 $419,000.00
09-2006 60 $440,000.00
08-2006 78 $437,000.00

keith said...

Uh, Las Vegas realtor (or homedebtor) troll - you might want to check out the Newsweek article linked in this thread about the Vegas housing crash underway...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20546324/site/newsweek/

Three years ago, this Las Vegas suburb was teeming with modern-day prospectors armed with low-interest mortgages, all hoping to strike it rich in real estate. Now, what started with the subprime-mortgage mess and subsequent credit crunch are turning communities like Black Mountain Vista into luxury ghost towns. Buyers who got in over their heads are being forced to abandon their homes, leaving behind empty McMansions on the California coast and see-through condominium towers on Miami Beach. Real estate is turning into a money pit, sapping the fortunes of home buyers, hedge-fund managers and house painters alike. The really bad news? This is only the beginning.

No sooner did the housing market peak last summer than pundits and home builders assured the public the bottom had been reached. But with each passing month, the shoes continue to drop.

keith said...

And here's Vegas's soaring inventory, plummeting sale and spiking foreclosures graphed all nice and neat for you

http://tinyurl.com/yscu9u


Man, when will the realtors just give up?

Anonymous said...

Keith,

That's all fine and good about newsweek articles. Fact is in the zip code 89141 prices are still going up. Average price in Aug '07 was $60K higher than Aug '06. If that is a crash, the fine we are in a crash.

keith said...

As has been discussed on this blog, median price is not telling you what's going on in a market

Previous

$200
$200
$200
$400

Median: $200k

Now:

$200
$400
$400

Median: $400

When the bottom of the market got taken out in the subprime implosion, and sales dropped 50% in many markets, the medians got distorted

tell you what, in that zip code, take any house and put it out for more than it would have been last year. just the laughing alone should tell you what's happening in reality

Cheers

Anonymous said...

Read more carefully keith, AVERAGE price, not median is what I gave.

Is average no good either? Average goes up, you say use median since average is not a good indicator. Median goes up, oops that is also not a good indicator.

Spin, spin, spin.

Median is up. Average is up. Anyway you look at it, prices are up.

You keep talking crashes all you want, the numbers say otherwise.

keith said...

Same argument - average or median (although simpletons confuse the two all the time - even your example is likely median and not average or mean)

100
100
200
400

Average is 200

100
400
400
400

Average is 325

See what happens when subprime blows up and the low end gets taken out of the equation?

Only way to find out is to put a home up for sale and see what the market will pay.

And bad news - in Vegas, that's a LOT less than it was last year.

Deal with it.

keith said...

Here's Vegas from Housing Tracker:

1 month -5,100 (-1.6%)
3 months -10,090 (-3.2%)
6 months -15,100 (-4.6%)
12 months -25,099 (-7.5%)


http://housing-watch.com/regionview.aspx?city=Las-Vegas

Give up realtor troll. Median, Mean, whatever. Home prices are crashing. Mark to Market. Supply and Demand. Subprime and flipping are over.

Just deal with it.

hendry said...

Foreclosures are up over 100% in California. That must mean the market is doing great!!! HAHAHAHAHA

Anonymous said...

Vegas is a total shithole fit for con-artists, drug dealers, strippers and any other degenerates that cant make it anywhere else. We have a boys trip over there for a day or so (about all we can stand) every year..drink, smoke, piss and puke all over the place. I don't understand how they could even get 100k for a house there.

Anonymous said...

Must be some fraudsters still in business in 89141 if prices are still going up.

Anonymous said...

Keith,

Every argument you have ignores SALES PRICES. That is the only thing that counts. Everything else is noise.

SALES PRICES countinue to go higher. Use average, use median, use whatever you want.

Anonymous said...

BTW Keith I am not a realtor. It always amuses me how anyone who disagrees with you is a troll. Grow up.

devestment said...

A client sent someone from his office over to drop off work. She insisted on meeting me instead of just leaving it. Upon arrival the muumuu clad, halitosis spewing undercover agent pitched me on her sideline real estate job at Coldwell. She didn’t just come right out and say “Please let me work with you on your next transaction”. Instead she just started “casual conversation” about her business attached to clever little innuendo designed to cause me to connect the dots and call her. I admit it, I am a shark, please don’t try to fool me with weak tactics that don’t work.

Anonymous said...

I live in Phoenix and like to see a craigslist hooker about once a month. I usually try to pick out someone fresh. The last two were realtors, I kid you not, trying to make some money to stay afloat. Neither had made a sale in months.

Everything that you all think is going on is really going on. Oh, and prices have noticeably come down, from $250 to $300 for an hour to $200.

God bless the real estate crash!

Anonymous said...

Troll, let me get this straight.

In 2005 you sold 100 houses for $400k a piece,
And in 2007 you sold 2 houses for $600k a piece.

Yep, prices are going up alright, ya frickin retard!

Anonymous said...

The world needs more strippers and less REALTORS

DaveO said...

"Zip Code 89141 in Las Vegas. My goodness what a crash!! Prices are up $60K YOY, the horror of it all. August 2007 the supposed month when nobody could get a loan anymore has the highest price in a year."

Moron,
Look at http://tinyurl.com/2n48ds

Do the sales prices you talk about consider price / sq. ft.? Are they all for roughly the same size house over the 13-month period (8/06-9/06 inclusive)?

Lionel said...

According to this, LV asking prices are down 1.6% from last month alone.

http://housing-watch.com/home.aspx?d=30

I have a cousin who lives in Vegas. (Why are cousins always such 'tards?) He came to me a year ago and said his buddy was going to sell him his house for 2.3 million, BUT it was actually worth 3.2 mill. I told him I had a tough time believing anything other than a casino was worth over 2 mill in Vegas. (I also doubted that his "friend" liked him so much that he'd give him a 900K rebate.) I told him further that the Vegas market was going to crash hard, and that his current 700K house would be worth half that shortly, despite its 7 LCD televisions, and tennis court etc.

Luckily he couldn't swing the financing, even though it was still the height of the phoney-baloney mortgage crisis. Did I mention that he was involved in real estate? Emphasis on WAS. He's now involved in some mail order face lotion company. Turns out business has been slow on the building side. Duh.

I further recall when he told me about the multimillion dollar gem, that the reason LV prices would keep going up was because of land use restrictions. Bwaaahaaaa! It's desert for Christsakes. Desert.

Excuse my rant, but I just can't believe anyone thinks Vegas is in for anything but real estate obliteration.

Anonymous said...

You're right daveo. That zip code in 1 year went from 2000 sq ft homes to 4000 sq ft homes, hence the dramatic jump in prices. One day magically every house doubled in size.

Spin, spin, spin away renters, fact is homes are not falling in price.

Anonymous said...

Tell you what realtor spinners go buy a home today in that zip code with your own money

Exactly

50% off coming up!

Anonymous said...

A few samples of homes sold in LV on Friday. Yep, this is a housing crash of ubelievable proportions. Why some people only made 200% return.

7014 CYPRESS GARDENS LN
LAS VEGAS NV 89119
Sold for $375,000
Last sale: $176,500 in 1997

7901 W WASHBURN RD
LAS VEGAS NV 89149
Sold for $345,000
Last sale: $289,000 in 2005

8808 RUSSO CT
LAS VEGAS NV 89134
Sold for $960,000
Last sale: $863,300 in 2006

Tanker said...

Strippers=whores
Mortgage Brokers=whores

So they really haven't changed jobs at all, then. They just use a different bag of tools to manipulate people out of their money.

Anonymous said...

I hope you haven't covered your short yet, CFC is pulling up off the bottom. I'd love to see you cover at $40.

There is a big difference between liquidity and solvency. CFC may have some liquidity problems, but not solvency problems. See you at the top.

Anonymous said...

anon said

Month, number of sales, avg.price
08-2007 46 $498,000.00

08-2006 78 $437,000.00

LOOK AT THE NUMBER OF SALES! ONLY 46 HOMES SOLD IN AUGUST. That's lower than any of the other months listed on your chart

August, 2006 number of sales: 78.

Sales in August, 2007: 46, which is 41% below last year's number!

Total sales volume for August, 2006: $34.08 million.

Sales volume for August, 2007: $22.9 million which is 32.8% below last year's sales volume. That's a lot less commissions being paid out to realtors!

That looks to me like the market is cratering, but million dollar homes are probably still moving.

Jymkata

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Read more carefully keith, AVERAGE price, not median is what I gave.

Is average no good either? Average goes up, you say use median since average is not a good indicator. Median goes up, oops that is also not a good indicator.

Spin, spin, spin.

Median is up. Average is up. Anyway you look at it, prices are up.

You keep talking crashes all you want, the numbers say otherwise.

September 04, 2007 2:20 PM

-----------------

Hahaha! The average is even more easily distorted than the median. Case-Shiller home price index for Vegas is down 5.1% YOY and even that most likely understates the problem.

Add in inflation, and you've got a pretty good crash... and it's just getting started.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Keith,

Every argument you have ignores SALES PRICES. That is the only thing that counts. Everything else is noise.

SALES PRICES countinue to go higher. Use average, use median, use whatever you want.

September 04, 2007 3:43 PM

---------------------

What's price per square foot doing? I bet it's down at least 5% YOY. It's a different mix of homes that are selling. The Case-Shiller index measures repeat sales of the same homes and it's down 5.1%.

Home prices in Vegas are eventually likely to approach zero, so you'd best get out while you can.

Anonymous said...

Foreclosures in 89141 are currently 439. Gee why don't these folks just sell their home?



http://www.foreclosure.com/search.html?st=NV&cno=003&z=89141&pg=18

Budvar said...

"Read more carefully keith, AVERAGE price, not median is what I gave.

Is average no good either?

That all depends on your interpretation of "Average" doesn't it?
Do you mean median average which is if the lowest priced house sold for $1 and the highest sold for $10million, the median average would be $5million. ie halfway between the 2 extremes.

The median average is add up the prices of all houses sold and divide by the number of houses you added together.

Then there's the mode average which is (housing in this case) the price that most people paid. ie if 2 people paid $1, 2 paid $10million and 75 paid $100k, 4100k is the mode average as most people paid that price.

Anonymous said...

to Las Vegas anon:

So when your zip code gets down to one sale at $10,000,000 you'll be absolutely estatic because the average home price has shot up to $10 million?

That doesn't make any sense, and either does your arguement.

Jymkata

Anonymous said...

So median up and average up, you nutjobs say that means nothing. If median and/or average ever falls, will you say the same?

No probably not. You will jump all over it as proof of a crash.

Do what you must, as long as you do it in your apartments and stay the fuck away from me and my neighborhood. Ughhh renters, a lower life form cannot exist.

Shakster said...

Anons recounting their dreams at HP again I see.Go back to sleep realtard.Better yet ,Go enlist.

ricardor said...

wow... here in NC you definitely need a license. Can't imagine states operating like that.

Chris Roberts
Bank of America

http://www.raleighmortgagepro.com

DaveO said...

Anonymous 9/5/07 12:07 am said:

"Do what you must, as long as you do it in your apartments and stay the fuck away from me and my neighborhood. Ughhh renters, a lower life form cannot exist."

Even the Federal Reserve is acknowledging the housing slump. They've already taken some action (the 1/2% emergency rate cut) and might even go as far as to reduce the benchmark interest rate come 9/18 (which I disagree with BTW). The slump is different in severity based on location, but as a whole, the slump as a whole on a national basis is definately here. Are you trying to tell me that there is no slump?

Anonymous said...

I hope you cover your short CFC at 40.