"Anything I say should be viewed with suspicion. Use your mind. Don't believe me"
- Bob Toll, famously optimistic about a housing rebound that has yet to materialize, poking fun at himself, September 2007
September 20, 2007
Hilarious and strangely honest Homebuilder Quote of the Day
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The Federal Reserve's rate cut sent U.S. home builder shares soaring, but one influential home builder said the half-percentage point cut may be sending the wrong message.
"I would have done a quarter instead of a half because it signals we're in deep doodoo," said Robert Toll, chief executive of luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc.
Speaking of famous quotes - I remember watching Suzie Ormand (on PBS) the "money woman" . . .someone in the audience ask in 2002, "when will Cisco reach bottom?" . . .she answered, "WHEN PEOPLE STOP ASKING ME WHEN CISCO WILL REACH BOTTOM.". . .and so it goes. . .my quote to the question when will I buy. . ."when I hear on the radio that home prices in San Diego county increased 1% for the first time in 10 years!". . .I was always taught that an investment is something that goes up in value . . .I will gladly pay 1-5% over bottom for a house when I know the market is recovered.
BTW - after Cisco tanked to $9 a share (from $90) I bought in at $11 and held till $25.
Sounds like good advice for Bush too!
Bailout is here. FHA limit up to $730K thanks to your Democrat buddies (how's that 2006 vote doing for y'all?).
Interest rates are crashing.
Dow is soaring.
The party is in full swing again.
Except that nobody at HP got invited.
Sorry. Better luck next time.
I'm stunned how quick things are moving now. Canadian dollar at parity? Gold over 730? WTF?
DOPES, can you explain this? I'm confused it's not turning out how you predicted.
"Many of you are well enough off that . . . the tax cuts may have helped you. We're saying that for America to get back on track, we're probably going to cut that short and not give it to you. We're going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good." — Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Monday, at a political fund-raiser in San Francisco, vowing that the Democrats will rescind President Bush's tax cuts if they win control of the White House and Congress
I just love the people on this board that support socialists and then get angry when they institute socialist programs...
Marky Mark
GOLD TO DA MOON ALICE!!!!!!!!!!
I would have done a quarter instead of a half because it signals we're in deep doodoo," said Robert Toll, chief executive of luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc.
Yes Bob but you're a tool, a tool that is in deep doodoo.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20886111/
The sheeple are walking around in a trance wondering what is going on in the market.Listening to paulson right now, what a creepy looking dude.More lies from the builders is all we need.I am going to buy some homebuilders today.
here is one for all you!
Greenspan is an idiot..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBnKh6B2cMw
Greenspan said, "Oil and greed is the only reason Bush went into Iraq." 9/17/2007
HUH????? Al? Is that you????
A Chuck, I'll take "Stangely Honest" for $500 please.
If Greenspan is correct, which I'll assume he is - would mean that Bush et all, "must" be taking a percentage of cash from all the Iraqi oil sales - from just their 2-1/2 hour fake attack on 9/11 and $1.8 trillion dollars in direct war invasion costs. OK, that sums it up well. I love facts and honesty!
And now with that known, I can understand why the bush cartel wanted contol of the iraqi oil industry, at any cost in the first place. So bush can be king and his selected buddies become rich and powerfull. They can even cheat, break the laws and lie to congress too! Go Bush go!
Thank you Mr. Greenspan for your strangely honest opinion!
WeeeeeeeeeeEEEEEEEEEEEeeeeee!
Hillary is a socialist? No way man. I read in the NY Times and sawon CNN that she is a "moderate". Anything the NY Times says must be true and should never be questioned.
You are nothing but a Fox News watching, Walmart shopping crazy person.
BOOYAH CHUMPS
The noose is tightening on the HP doom and gloom crowd. Ehh what do I care if you buy a beautiful home or rent a shithole apartment. You are a fringe minority. To the 98% of us non-kooks out there this cut was a godsend. Congress raising the FHA cap was like an added bonus.
How does it feel knowing you will never afford a home?
God you guys, I can not open any of these cut and past links. grandma, and eno, and others, I do not expect you to embed the articles, but I really want to read whet you share PLEASE.....use
www.tinyurl.com
pretty please with sugar on it.
hold the french fries said...
Greenspan said, "Oil and greed is the only reason Bush went into Iraq." 9/17/2007
================
He didn't say that. He said He(Al) thought going into Iraq for oil was a good idea. But Al also specifically said he didn't think that was Bush's reason.
On yahoo finance there is a poll question. Yes/No did the fed do the right thing?
Results are 68% Yes, 33% No (which adds to 101% but oh well).
What percentage of people own/rent?
69/31.
Giess doing "the right thing" is all relevant to one's situation.
"To the 98% of us non-kooks out there this cut was a godsend."
Yes, if you really think that is what it is, please continue on...
"How does it feel knowing you will never afford a home?"
Well, I'm not in the US but the housing market's been out of my reach for years now. If all this shit comes to a town near me, nothing will have changed.
It feels pretty bad knowing I'll never afford a home. Does that make you feel good? Like you're somehow superior because you own a home and renters like me never will? Do you really think you're a better person, or more worthy because you "own" an expensive thing that we can't hope to? I pity you.
Enjoy your home - may it bring you much happiness and comfort.
Anonymous said...
"BOOYAH CHUMPS
The noose is tightening on the HP doom and gloom crowd. Ehh what do I care if you buy a beautiful home or rent a shithole apartment. You are a fringe minority. To the 98% of us non-kooks out there this cut was a godsend. Congress raising the FHA cap was like an added bonus.
How does it feel knowing you will never afford a home?"
Not. The noose is actually continuing to tighten on all the losers who caused this mess. Why do you think Ben, the Wall Street crowd, and people like you are behaving so frantically? These folks are finished and they know it. The stock market will probably continue to go up and down for a few weeks, but eventually it will take a big fall. I'm guessing before the year is out. The "bailout" will probably keep some FB's from losing their homes, but when you factor in the speculators, the folks who lied on their loans, and the people who don't even care anymore and rather walk away from the house, I bet that number will be relatively small. This rate cut won't do much of anything either, because no one wants to give anyone a loan, and if no one wants to give anyone a loan what does it matter if Bernanke does tricks with rates? Do the banks even have the money to give anyone loans? You FBs who helped fuel this Boom and Bust continue on in your "homes" with the sinking equity. Keep parading around with the rope burns on your necks, and I will continue to rent, thank you very much, wearing my gold necklaces and my tinfoil hat.
But but but, booby was dancin' on the bottom this time last year, and 9 months ago, there was a pile of pent up demand for his houses.
Oh, the horror.
"The noose is tightening on the HP doom and gloom crowd. Ehh what do I care if you buy a beautiful home or rent a shithole apartment. You are a fringe minority. To the 98% of us non-kooks out there this cut was a godsend. Congress raising the FHA cap was like an added bonus."
Don't you realize that increasing the buying power (by decreasing interest rates and raising FHA limits) results in higher prices, negating any benefits of the increase in buying power. Most buyers nowadays (the 98% non-kooks that you refer to) are of the Howmuchamonth variety. For a given monthly payment, when interest rates go down, that increases the size of the mortgage that they can afford. But the house prices, of an equivalent house, have to go up to compensate. That does not help the buyer at all. In fact, someone with a high principal, low-interest mortgage is worse off than someone with a low principal- high interest mortgage for a given monthly payment, because the latter can refinance when interest rates go down, but the former is stuck, with a house that will have to go down in price (inflation-adjusted) when the interest rates go back to normal (historically, around 7.5%).
BTW, why is it that many in the MSM think that the recent rate of 5.25% was higher than normal? Does their memory only go back a few years? The rate was closer to 7.5% in the latter 90s.
It feels pretty bad knowing I'll never afford a home. Does that make you feel good? Like you're somehow superior because you own a home and renters like me never will? Do you really think you're a better person, or more worthy because you "own" an expensive thing that we can't hope to? I pity you.
------------------------
Finally, a bitter renter who is honest.
A customer that he screwed should put a bullet between his eyes.
"To the 98% of us non-kooks out there this cut was a godsend."
Yes, if you really think that is what it is, please continue on...
No doubt. What an ass. I just went through my home equity portfolio to re-calculate the repayments given the reduction in the prime rate and most of the balances had lower payments by around $20 per month and some didn't move the needle down by the mandatory $10 in order to justify making the data change. In the meantime, the DAY that the Fed lowered, gas went up by 12 cents a gallon and was slightly higher today. This rate cut was total desperation, lip stick on a pig, etc. type of move in my opinion. 98% of non-kooks, yeah. More like 98% of the population that doesn't grasp basic economics.
Smug Bastard
"The noose is tightening on the HP doom and gloom crowd. Ehh what do I care if you buy a beautiful home or rent a shithole apartment. You are a fringe minority. To the 98% of us non-kooks out there this cut was a godsend. Congress raising the FHA cap was like an added bonus."
For everyone on the sidelines with some cash, decent credit and job, this could mean that you'll be able to buy in the next 12 -18 months at much reduced pricing AND benefit from really cheap financing to boot. That's assuming you can time things just right. Just remember, if possible, try to negotiate an assumable mortgage at el cheapo rate if available. I sort of doubt that is available anymore but what a total wet dream that would be....cheap price, cheap financing AND assumable mortgage so you can upcharge that mofo on price by a few g's when you go to sell 10-15 years from now. Meanwhile asshats like the original poster have a cheap mortgage (true) but purchased at a price that means a slow but steady leak in value year in and year out. Every dollar of savings on interest costs is offset by the buck fifty depreciation of the asset like a slow, annoying, steady drip from a faucet. Damn near like Chinese water torture. One step forward and one point five steps backward. Like Michael Jackson moonwalking.
I forgot to add that the fact that the fed had to drop rates simply confirms that the economy is worsening. A slightly worse economy + slightly lower interest rates = no net change in buying power.
One more thing - as the bubble increased to its maximum insanity from late 2004 through early 2006, interest rates were rising the whole time. Sounds irrational, right? Why, then, would the deflation of the bubble follow a rational path? Because of the bubble's irrational nature, I would think that the bubble deflation will continue to occur despite lowering of interest rates, which is the inverse of what happened on the way up.
(yawn)
You're only getting a bargain if you're in FL, Vegas, Arizona, or Cali - somewhere that has little to no job base that, outside of the circle of greed known as real estate, can sustain or even attempt to grow/justify the prices. Now, back to painting in preparation for the new plasma TV we'll be mounting in the family room.
when does this long term bear market in interest rates end, as i would like to earn some stock market investment money
The 10 and 30 year rates are going up. Only the ARM's tied to the FFR will benefit by by $50/mo or so. That's like tossing a dozen life preservers to the hundreds of Titanic passengers. By next spring the 30 year rate will be even higher due to inflation caused by the Fed. Uncle Ben is pissing in the ocean.
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