September 20, 2007

FLASH: Moody's forecasts 86 US housing markets will crash by over 10%, with Phoenix crashing 18% and Stockton 25%. A little conservative I'd say...


Got some bad news for idiot realtor bloggers in Phoenix and around country, and for any of the sheeple who believed the housing cheerleaders and bought a house these past couple of years:

Leverage sucks on the way down.

Also, after being in Vegas for the week, one thing stands out about the new homes they've built in the Southwest during the bubble:

Damn these garages, err, I mean homes, are butt-ugly.

Here's the down and dirty. Look out below. And watch out for falling knives.


Double digit home price drops coming

Over the next few years, more than three-quarters of the nation's housing markets will suffer some decline in home prices. Many will experience double-digit hits in a forecast that has worsened considerably in recent months.

According to an analysis conducted by Moody's Economy.com, declines will exceed 10 percent in 86 of the 379 largest housing markets. And 290 of the cities will experience price drops of 1 percent or more.

The Stockton, Calif., metro area, where Moody's predicts a 25 percent price drop, will be the hardest hit among the 100 most populated cities surveyed.

Just a tick or two behind Stockton in the Moody's survey were two Florida metro areas, Palm Bay/Melbourne (down 24.9 percent) and Sarasota/Bradenton (down 24.8 percent).

Six of the nation's 10 biggest cities face price declines of 1 percent or more with Phoenix, at a 17.8 percent loss, undergoing the worst reversal. The San Diego area will suffer through a 10.9 percent fall, Los Angeles (down 10.6 percent), New York, (down 5.3 percent), San Jose, (down 4.4 percent) and Philadelphia (down 3.1 percent) will also fall.

81 comments:

ace said...

Funnny they did not mention some areas in California are already down 30% from the highs. the builders are discounting $100,000-$150,000 (plus extras) in some areas of Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, CA

These areas are going to be HIT BAD.

WAY To Many empty houses with Brown lawns....AND THEY ARE STILL BUILDING....

k.w. - southern ca. said...

A very close friend of my from Europe commented how poorly built the houses were here in the US.

His family was shocked that anyone would live in them.

I absolutely agree, the quality of these homes (even "luxury models" by Toll Bro., KB Homes, ect..) are really pathetic - and the price these houses were going for made it even more outrageous.

Now, all that has ended, and people are realizing just how much they were screwed - it's very sad, and financially devestating for so many people across this country.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

My home, not flip, has lost 30% since I bought it a year ago. Good thing I Bought from FB at 35% off appraised value and now my 30 year fixed with a 50% ltv will be paid off in depreciated USD. Feels good to have predicted the future. That was the plan, thanks in part to this blog!

Anonymous said...

But Greg Swann said Phoenix was gonna be fine!

k.w. - southern ca. said...

Prices will drop considerably across the nation over the next few years - there is no stopping it.

Some of the more pricier areas, especially along the west coast, will also suffer. A neighbor has once again pulled her house off the market - there are only lookers and no buyers.

Location means nothing if the entry costs are still too high, and those with substancial money in the bank won't touch housing with a 100-foot pole now.

The Fed's rate cut was done for one reason - an attempt to preserve the banking system, not those vested in the housing market.

Anonymous said...

KB Homes
Kracked & Broken

k.w. - southern ca. said...

Once the building contract is approved, they are committed to finishing the housing project.

These unfinished houses have already lost a considerable amount of their value - just adding more to the over surplus of housing we already have.

~~~

Funnny they did not mention some areas in California are already down 30% from the highs. the builders are discounting $100,000-$150,000 (plus extras) in some areas of Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, CA

These areas are going to be HIT BAD.

WAY To Many empty houses with Brown lawns....AND THEY ARE STILL BUILDING....

September 20, 2007 7:02 PM

Anonymous said...

Detroit metro area is already down 17.5% from 2004 peak.

How they figure only a 10% decline is ridiculous.

area 51 said...

And you believe Moody's?
Hellooooooo?

area 51 said...

For all the DOPES, DOLTS and 1000 Word Douches:

Exhaustive research has shown that "predictions" (other than the weather) are no better than saying, "Tomorrow will look something like today."

Well that is exactly what Moody's is saying.
2 years after prices started plunging, they come along and say, "Here Ye, Here Ye, we predict prices are going to fall! Please pay homage to us now...."

WHAT???????

Sheeple said...

It will take more of a fall than this to remove the wealth from the middle class and create an environment in which there is a need for more credit. You see, sheeple with money don’t need to borrow so this is bad for the banking industry and GDP. The government won’t tolerate the loss of dollars to other currencies by its citizens; here comes the foreign investor tax.

RayNLA said...

Has anyone heard from "The Donald" lately?

RayNLA

westwest888 said...

I agree with those numbers. What they don't acknowledge is that prices will fall by that amount for several years. How many? 3? 6? It's difficult to say. An 11% drop for three years is only 29.6% overall. Not so bad, unless you own one.

Anonymous said...

"A very close friend of my from Europe commented how poorly built the houses were here in the US.
"

Agreed! Ive have seen so many poorly built NEW homes here in Irvine, using the crappiest materials Ive ever seen.

But what's even funnier is that all these suckers are paying $800,000 + for these crappy built houses.

Talk about STUPID. Man, people just dont know what they are doing these days. Oh well, fools and their hard earned money will soon be parted...

adrian said...

Is this from today's prices or from the peak?

Anonymous said...

"But Greg Swann said Phoenix was gonna be fine!"

HAHAHAHAHAH

Hey Greg Swann, so many people are laughing at ya behind your back.

snicker...

L'Emmerdeur said...

Moody's is already wrong, if the 30% price reductions by Hovnanian and others recently are any indication.

Anonymous said...

Friend of mine who previously worked in residential construction (now does infrastructure construction) calls today's construction standards "Modern American $h!t Construction" He'll look at the work and materials in some places and just shake his head. Saying things like, Yep that the Mexican way to put up molding; Looks like they used jig saw puzzle hard wood here; etc etc. He had a home built in Metro Chicago area and insisted on Union Hall Labor and paid extra for it. Got just a base home from the builder and then put in all his own upgrades and programmed them in along the way. Excellent quality craftmenship in the molding work, real hardwood floors, copper pipe plumbing etc.

He recommends homes build no later that early to mid 80's. Maybe ones build before mid 90's nothing thereafter unless you do the same. If you buy a new build he recommends local builders and not national, but of course you'll need to watch them like a hawk.

Anonymous said...

Flying Monkey.

You're an idiot.

Your house isn't 50% LTV.

It's 100% LTV.

Your value is what it's worth today. Not what is was worth at the people.

If you use that math next year you will be at 80% LTV.

andymiami said...

Moody's past forecast have been off, failing to forecast what is really happening in the US. A 10% drop may mean a 25% drop, close to Shiller's recent predictions.

Happy Homedebtor said...

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

My home, not flip, has lost 30% since I bought it a year ago. Good thing I Bought from FB at 35% off appraised value and now my 30 year fixed with a 50% ltv will be paid off in depreciated USD. Feels good to have predicted the future. That was the plan, thanks in part to this blog!
--------------------------------
Ummm...you do realize that the FB wasn't F'd, right? They paid a trivial amount for it, and the "appraisal" you got was grossly inflated by 10-25% because they knew you were putting $$ down so they were covered.

So, for math #s, lets say the real value of the house when you bought it was 100. The appraisal came in at 125. You got the house for 80. It's now worth 70. In the case of 10% overappraisal, 110 appraisal meant you paid 73. So you're only down 3, but when you sell that's another 6, so you're down 9%.

That is, if you're even telling the truth. :) Keith - I absolutely *LOVE* how all your disciples eat up the #s and conspiracies you proclaim, and then conveniently forget them when it involves them. :) (Over-appraisals were very common, that much is fact.)

Anonymous said...

W00t! I saw on the Moody's list that my own city "where it's different here," Santa Barbara, CA is right up there with Stockton.

I'm glad Moody's is helping to confirm that the "American Riviera" (that term makes me want to puke) is f*cked like the rest of SoCal.

Anonymous said...

A 18% decline in Phoenix sounds bad. However, it sounds worse when you factor in 10% inflation. 28% drop in one year, that sounds better.

Cheers

caveat emptor said...

Areas here in phoenix are already down 35-40% dude.Go talk to some people in maricopa. I have already seen smaller homes down there from 119000. A lot of people are in the hole 100k. The market has corrected fast here for new builds. I cannot see why anyone would buy a used house right now.Builders are begging you to buy now.

Anonymous said...

I live in the Bay Area. Stockton is going to completely tank. Hell, the actually Bay Area is likely going to contract by around 25%. I read elsewhere that predictions for San Francisco itself are around a 26-27% decline. If that is correct, that means the south bay (san jose, sunnyvale, etc) will contract more. That being said, look for prices in Stockton to drop closer to 50%. More if a recession hits.

Anonymous said...

Bayport, NY New Construction Big McMansion - For real: Builder asking 1 Million in January - today it's $749k - that's 25% so 1% is not close to what's going on ...

raynla said...

What a minute!


Greg,Kendra and Suzzane reserched this.

So you mean to tell me, that 5% isn't "In the Bag"

There will be no "Soft landing"

And that this listing isn't "Special"

RayNLA

Anonymous said...

25% off (not 18%) plus 20% off of a short sale=40% off places in Phoenix/Scottsdale. It's a start.

Anonymous said...

I saw that list. What a joke! According to it, Miami will go down 7% only. Yeah, right, that cesspool, land of crooks and welfare (thanks to the Republican Cubans), will shrink by only 7%, especially with 70,000 condo units for sale. Man, do these so called, "expert analysts", ever get out of the office?

housing in a downward spiral said...

Forecasting only 10-11% declines in LA and San Diego is WAY too optimistic! Heck, SD is probably down almost that much already, and it's just getting started. Let's see... the Case-Shiller home price index for San Diego is down 7.3% YOY:

http://www.macromarkets.com

Anonymous said...

10% reduction is not a crash. Don't get too excited. Fed wants to inflate the country out of this mess. Home prices basically flat lines while everything else increase in price...this will take a long time to unwind.

GreedKills said...

I drove through Stockton at the end of June. The construction along the highway was still motoring right along.

25%?

Yeah...sure.

Anonymous said...

10% is nothing compared with 200%, 300% or even 400% runup. 10 to 20% of drop shouldn't be called crash.

Anonymous said...

Anyone want to bet how long until Swann declares bankruptcy?

keith said...

10% drop isn't anything?

Tell that to the family who bought a home for $500,000 at the peak and just lost $50,000, plus 10% inflation over 2 years (50k) plus 8% selling fees (40k) total $140k

It's called foreclosure and bankruptcy

Nah, that's not much

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Flying Monkey.

You're an idiot.

Your house isn't 50% LTV.

It's 100% LTV.

Your value is what it's worth today. Not what is was worth at the people.

If you use that math next year you will be at 80% LTV.
88888888888888888888888
Fair enough, I have called posters on HP a lot worse than idiot.

I ONLY LOSE $$$ IF I SELL, WHICH I NEVER WILL. I OWE UNDER 100 k (NOT A GIANT LOSS FOR ANYONE) and I HATE MOVING!!!!!

Homestead is NOT always ALL about the money. It is about calculated risk and balance.

signed,
not a numbers genius, but a marketing creative, hunkered down and ready for TSTHTF.

Anonymous said...

"A very close friend of my from Europe commented how poorly built the houses were here in the US."

This is one of the main reasons I never bought a house. I used to be in the construction business and thought they were overpriced here in the DC area before the bubble.

A friend of mine from Taiwan asked why all of our houses blow over in a hurricane. I said it's because they're built with the cheapest materials and labor possible and sold for the highest possible price to maximize profit. That's the Scamerican way. They're only meant to look good for about a year and then all the drywall comes popping off the wall.

The sheeple don't know any different. They just see granite counter tops and a new washer and dryer and don't realize what huge POS they just went into debt over.

master yates said...

I have a hard on for diana olick.She is so sexy and honest.

Housing is toast for all you realtor trolls.Go back to flipping burgers and greeting at walmart.

Anonymous said...

10% is an average for an area. Some homes could be more and some less. 10% is huge if you can't handle the mortgage and you are an FB.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

The real value of the house when I bought it was 190. The appraisal came in at 179. Got the house for 150. It's now worth http://tinyurl.com/yuongx. (My home zillow chart-FWIW)
I MAY BE DOWN ANOTHER 35 BEFORE IT IS OVER, but I doubt it.
****************
nanynanybooboo

TRUTH....Hurricanes, 13 hotels as emergency housing, and a (rental home)fire last July, more emerg housing and I have HAD IT.
I am not ever moving AGAIN or selling. I bought in a building that has buried electric
cable and can withstand 149 mph hurricane winds. I am a safe idiot with no crazy landlords. I am an idiot who went in
with my eyes open and a plan to be safe, stable, be near the best schools, in the richest property value in the city limits, and lose the least amount of money.

And,if I never sell, I win.

'nuff said.

Back to your regular gloom and doom
programing, I am ready and it is all so much more interesting than me paying off my LITTLE home in depreciated US dollars.

nanynanybooboo

Peace out.

Anonymous said...

OK PHX will drop 18%. It went up 100%. I'll take a 100% gain followed by an 18% loss any day, any time.

Anonymous said...

California dropped 13% last time around. This bubble is twice as big as the last one. So a drop of 26% is probably what will occur.

Pretty harsh yes. By 2010 the bottom will be here. By 2012 prices will slowly climb back. By 2017 we'll have 25% annual appreciation yet again and by 2020 people will look back at 2007 prices and think damn, homes were cheap back then.

Cycles always repeat.

Anonymous said...

keith said...
10% drop isn't anything?

Tell that to the family who bought a home for $500,000 at the peak and just lost $50,000, plus 10% inflation over 2 years (50k) plus 8% selling fees (40k) total $140k

It's called foreclosure and bankruptcy

Nah, that's not much


==============================

10% inflation...you don't count that as a loss man. You lose that no matter what. 8% selling feels? On what planet? You can list a house for $299 on the MLS on your own.

Plus you are missing out the 2 years of equity built up and 2 years of tax deduction.

The loss is morelike $25K.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
W00t! I saw on the Moody's list that my own city "where it's different here," Santa Barbara, CA is right up there with Stockton.

I'm glad Moody's is helping to confirm that the "American Riviera" (that term makes me want to puke) is f*cked like the rest of SoCal.

September 20, 2007 8:11 PM

-------------------

The last time I stopped by SB, it looked like the old town area (off State Street) was inhabited primarily by illegals.

Is SB becoming a more expensive version of Oxnard/Ventura?

Anonymous said...

keith said...
10% drop isn't anything?

Tell that to the family who bought a home for $500,000 at the peak and just lost $50,000, plus 10% inflation over 2 years (50k) plus 8% selling fees (40k) total $140k

It's called foreclosure and bankruptcy

Nah, that's not much

September 21, 2007 12:08 AM

--------------------

That would be a family entering serfdom under our new and improved neo-feudal socioeconomic system.

Sheeple said...

F M W.
I respect your play. What you did is clearly right for you. Bears, Bulls, and sheep eventually win, scared money never does.
Sheepvestment

Sheeple said...

California dropped 13% last time around.

I was there. Big cities lost 25+% with outlying areas as much as 50% on the regular market and more at auction.

Anonymous said...

I figure everyone will be able to buy a home soon with one Euro

Anonymous said...

YAY my town is number 7. i have been saving my euros for this day!!!!

resisting husband said...

oh...here is a link to a news site that has the full chart from moody's

http://tinyurl.com/yul523

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
OK PHX will drop 18%. It went up 100%. I'll take a 100% gain followed by an 18% loss any day, any time.

September 21, 2007 1:02 AM

---------------------

Except that PHX, in reality, will probably drop 100%. All the way to ZERO.

GREG WHO?? said...

Can anyone explain the downside percentage loss vs upside percentage Gain?
Like When I go UPSIDE Anons Head 50%,Anon goes Downside 90% on his face.HEHEHE.
If a price rise from $200,000 going up to $400,000 is a 100% gain, then is a price decline back down to 200,000 a 100% loss? right?.....or is it only 50%?WTF?F$ck this Sh!t.

Anonymous said...

The last time I stopped by SB, it looked like the old town area (off State Street) was inhabited primarily by illegals.

Is SB becoming a more expensive version of Oxnard/Ventura?

------------------------------------------
That's a part of town is where there is cheap housing, so that's where you end up with a lot of people living in a small apartment. I wouldn't say it's in the class of Oxnard as far as the influx of illegals, but it's definitely a growing number. That being said, there are the hispanic families that have been here for at least several generations (there are still a lot of descendents of the Spanish families that settled the area) and have solid roots in the community.

Anonymous said...

Hahahahahahahahaha.

Sorry Charlie. Try at LEAST a 50% loss in Los Angeles. Houses in some areas have quadrupled in value in the last 5 years.

Anonymous said...

and they will still be 60 percent over priced

Anonymous said...

sheeple devestment called it again, scared money never wins, true but hard to face that fact...

hendry said...


OK PHX will drop 18%. It went up 100%. I'll take a 100% gain followed by an 18% loss any day, any time.


Phoenix (2001-2005) $200K house to $400K (+100%)

Phoenix (2006-2010) $400K house to $328K (-18%)

Inflation adjusted 5%

FV = 200*(1.05)^10
FV = $326K

You made a profit of $2K on your $200K investment (1% gain after 10 years or less than .1% annual gain) if you bought before the bubble. How about people who bought from 2003-2005? They will have to wait until the next RE bubble in 2020 just to break even.

Kurt Seifried-Taylor said...

I think it's going to be more like 40-50% in major markets. Simple math: in the last decade US housing prices more than doubled in many markets. A realistic gain would be more like 20-30%. Do the difference, basically a drop in half of prices and you get 40-50%. I think other factors like the credit crunch; if I'm willing to pay $600,000, but can't get a mortgage for $600,000 guess what? You ain't selling it for $600,000. Plus I think a lot of other factors like increasing oil price due to the dropping US dollar/etc. will make houses in the exurbs and suburbs less desirable.

Lost Cause said...

Yeah, I can beleive 10% -- per YEAR for the NEXT 5 years!!!

Lost Cause said...

The sad fact is that construction methods and materials are better in Mexico for a similar home.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Thank you Sheeple. (*: Good grief, my payment is so cheap it is lower than rent. Bring it on.
Forgot how easy it is to stir up the bee hive over here.
I know, I know readers, it is the P/E.
let it go....

Anonymous said...

FMW:

Come on now. Stop spinning girl. You bought at the peak. You fucked up. Admit your errors and deal with it.

As for California...13% was statewide. Can you document these 50% big city sales? As usual the HP crowd exagerates by a factor of 2.5.

Anonymous said...

Moody's? Yup, everyone should listen to them because they were so accurate on rating the collateralized debt obligations. High quality stuff there, LOL.

/sarcasm off

D. said...

"Plus you are missing out the 2 years of equity built up and 2 years of tax deduction.

The loss is morelike $25K.

September 21, 2007 1:12 AM"

- The equity built up is wasted money. You could be investing it in assets that appreciate instead of a depreciating house.

- A lot of people don't benefit form the tax deduction.

Man, people really do convince themselves that a house is a good investment, don't they!!!

Anonymous said...

k.w. - southern ca. said...

A very close friend of my from Europe commented how poorly built the houses were here in the US.

His family was shocked that anyone would live in them.

I absolutely agree, the quality of these homes (even "luxury models" by Toll Bro., KB Homes, ect..) are really pathetic - and the price these houses were going for made it even more outrageous.

Now, all that has ended, and people are realizing just how much they were screwed - it's very sad, and financially devestating for so many people across this country.

September 20, 2007 7:03 PM<<<<<<<



yeh, they use illegal alien wetbacks to build them. they charge you for number 1 wood and use number 2. they use cheap pressed wood cabinents that suck. the shelves inside them begin to buckle after a couple of years of putting canned goods on them in conjunction with the water vapor in the air. the ac systems are usually not sized right. they use sub par sub quality ac equipment that has to be replaced long after the home owner warranty has expired. they use cheap chinese made light fixtures. many times the slabs crack because they were not done right. etc etc etc......and yet some of these houses are called nice by toll brothers and hovnanian, etc and some are called regular tract homes by people like centex , horton etc......and plus in many of these neighborhoods, they do not include a fence or turf grass in the deal and usually you have a relatively small lot and you have no privacy whatsoever......

only in amerika......the land of the free and the home of the brave.......(only in our minds)....

Anonymous said...

4.4% in San Jose? Don't make me laugh. We live in one of the "best" neighborhoods here and I watch the activity closely. Example: One well maintained house originally priced at the comps has been sitting on the market for ~6 months even after mutiple price reductions totalling ~15%. It still sits with no visible traffic. I think a better question for Moody's is what is the rating on all these home loans, AAA or B-? It's like asking a Realtwhore if it's a good time to buy.

Anonymous said...

But Seattle/Bellevue is sooo special

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
10% reduction is not a crash. Don't get too excited. Fed wants to inflate the country out of this mess. Home prices basically flat lines while everything else increase in price...this will take a long time to unwind.

September 20, 2007 10:52 PM


Anonymous said...
10% is nothing compared with 200%, 300% or even 400% runup. 10 to 20% of drop shouldn't be called crash.

September 20, 2007 11:40 PM

keith said...
10% drop isn't anything?

Tell that to the family who bought a home for $500,000 at the peak and just lost $50,000, plus 10% inflation over 2 years (50k) plus 8% selling fees (40k) total $140k

It's called foreclosure and bankruptcy

Nah, that's not much

September 21, 2007 12:08 AM
-----------
If you do not have to sell, then any drop in value of the asset backing the mortgage is irrelevant.

HOWEVER, if you must sell depending upon your financial circumstances it can result in financial ruin.

If you did things the old fashioned way (20% down, 30 year fixed) then while its painful to see a significant portion of your life savings evaporate (to include all the transaction fees noted by Keith) at least you can walk away to live another day with clean credit. (That's what happened to me).

But in our modern age of Zero down Interest only (or even worse the NegAmOptARMS) and the reason you did it was because you had nothing for a down payment and now you MUST sell then this same person who did not have cash for a down payment MUST now come up with a defacto down payment to get out of the loan. The whole reason why banks required 20% down was for these very reasons, so they would be protected and get their money back and the individual would suffer the losses that may occur with a resale of the asset at a lower price. Looks like banks have to relearn that lesson. The homedebtor has their credit ruined.

Upscale the above fact pattern by a few million for all the foreclosures and short sales. Take the average/median home price in America, 220000, so we're looking at 22k x 2 million (so we're not even including transaction costs). So how much do backs stand to lose based just on this quick swag? 44 Billion with a B and we all know that the bubble areas were way above average/median and we know that the bubble areas are going to drop much more than 10%. Toss in transaction costs (attorneys, transfer fees, etc., etc., etc.) and now you've got something in the 100's of billions. The financial markets can take the hit, but it will be a wounded animal that is gun shy and need an RTC S&L style bailout again along with a decade to sort out. IN the interim they will not funciton normally and result in a significant slowdown in commerce to the point we may slip into recession.

This is a crash, but its just started with some of the initial crumple zones of the car collapsing. Once the fully affects of the collision ripple through the economy and we've had our whip lash and come to full stop then we will know the full extent of the damage and all then call it was it is, a CRASH!!

HP is just being forward looking, hence contrary to human thinking to only in hindsight realize was happened verses what is happening!!

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
The last time I stopped by SB, it looked like the old town area (off State Street) was inhabited primarily by illegals.

Is SB becoming a more expensive version of Oxnard/Ventura?

------------------------------------------
That's a part of town is where there is cheap housing, so that's where you end up with a lot of people living in a small apartment. I wouldn't say it's in the class of Oxnard as far as the influx of illegals, but it's definitely a growing number. That being said, there are the hispanic families that have been here for at least several generations (there are still a lot of descendents of the Spanish families that settled the area) and have solid roots in the community.

September 21, 2007 5:23 AM

--------------------

What I noticed was more like families of illegals living in old run-down bungalows a block or two off State St... They definitely didn't look like the descendants of Spanish settlers from the 1700s and 1800s. There were very few people in California before the gold rush, except for the indigenous peoples like the Gabrielinos. Other than that, there were a few Spanish padres, soldiers, and ranchers and that's about it.

The brewery still gets a thumbs up though.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Come on now. Stop spinning girl. You bought at the peak. You fucked up. Admit your errors and deal with it.
-------------------------
Yes, if I was a fliptard,I am really effed. I am not an investor. It is my home, my home town and my 'plan'.
You do not understand. I do not care about a piddly $100,000.00. I had other goals when I purchased this 'bunker' home, see above. One goal was to wait for the STHTF, then I get my dream million dollar home for 300K and give the tiny 'Luxury' city penthouse to my 16 year old.
Move on, nothing here to see.

RayNLA said...

That's a part of town is where there is cheap housing, so that's where you end up with a lot of people living in a small apartment. I wouldn't say it's in the class of Oxnard as far as the influx of illegals, but it's definitely a growing number. That being said, there are the hispanic families that have been here for at least several generations (there are still a lot of descendents of the Spanish families that settled the area) and have solid roots in the community.

September 21, 2007 5:23 AM

__________________________________



Thank you for pointing out these facts. As is the case for a lot of Hispanics all over California. You can go to the most expensive neighborhoods all over the so cal you will see a good number of Hispanics.

I happen to know of a couple Hispanic families in SB with nice homes that were paid off years ago!

Good people.

RayNLA

Out at the peak said...

They forgot to add the variable "panic".

Anonymous said...

Some places are so special that the laws of supply and demand are not ineffect. Prices won't matter either.

Paul E. Math said...

I don't think fmw is an idiot. If everyone thought like her, bought conservatively, doesn't plan to move and put a significant amount down then: a) this bubble never would have happened; b) the bubble, now that it has happened, will still crash hard.

Also, she is sufficiently self-aware to know that she is paying extra and has reasons why that's okay. There is a striking difference between this thought process and that of your average FB.

By the way, love the 'grinning idiot' sheep, devestment/sheeple. I don't know, something about it makes me chuckle everytime I see it. And I'm not normally much of a chuckler.

Anonymous said...

Moody is trying to be a Mister Nice Guy with their prediction.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

@ Paul E. Math,
(*:

Edgar said...

fmw is smarter than all you anonypussies put together.

save the greenbacks said...

My, how times have changed. Remember only as few short months ago when the trolls were laughing at the notion of any decline in real estate values? Remember the soft landing argument? Now they're saying "10 or 20% isn't that bad, my house went up 200%". Next year it will "30 or 40% isn't that bad...

Anonymous said...

The last time I stopped by SB, it looked like the old town area (off State Street) was inhabited primarily by illegals.

Is SB becoming a more expensive version of Oxnard/Ventura?



Give it a few more years and even Solvang will look like Tijuana.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

@ Edgar,
Thank you.

Anonymous said...

did you really expect it to go up forever in price ... are you really that stupid or nieve LOL...