August 19, 2007

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day

What are the chances you'll lose your job or income stream during this economic downfall?

What do you do?




68 comments:

David in JAX said...

I am already feeling the pinch.

What do you do?

1. Partner in a small property management and development business (full time job).
2. Owner of a small one man engineering consulting business (side job for fun).

Our occupancy rates have really dropped in our property management business and we aren't looking at any new commercial developments AT ALL. We have one development going that we can not stop by law at this point that makes me cringe knowing it is going to flop. This has been a real drain on our monthly cash flow. I also went from about 20 hours/week of engineering work in Jan-Feb of this year to 0. I haven't done any side work this month and don't see any more coming. I don't care what the MSM says. There was a small commercial boom after the residential bust started, but it is just taking the same path as residential construction.

On anther note. Our local unemployment rate shot up an entire 1.0% over the summer (not including illegal alliens). 1.0% is a huge jump in my oppinion. The local news was confused and wondering how this could happen here. Things are always perfect here...

Anonymous said...

I'm a REALTOR(TM) and times have never been better!!!!!!

(just kidding)

smitty said...

I'm a leech and instead of having to suck your blood, I can just lap it up from the floor. self inflicted wounds make my life easier!

Anonymous said...

What do you mean, job loss?, I`m an American, I`m entitled to a good job with full benefits. The world revolves around me dammit, and I won`t here of it spoken in any other way! Besides, GW said that it`s all good. It`s an excellent time to buy right now. Stocks are on sale right now, Ben S. just said so this morning on TV. Now if you`ll excuse me, I`ve got some American Idol reruns that will help me forget this nonsense.

Anonymous said...

Lost your Job?

Not to Worry.

I've heard the Army National Guard is recruiting. After training, they even provide a complimentary airplane ticket to Iraq, with complimentary room and board, clothing, and to top it all off, you can even drive a HUMMER.

Come to think of it, many realtors and Cash out Refi people in the past few years have gotten accustomed to leased Hummers! Hmmm.

Anonymous said...

Wait outside condo towers with a tire iron and beat the rich when they emerge and steal their wallets?

devestment said...

I am a shark so things are really improving with the shipwreck of the USS Economy.

Anonymous said...

Do what a realtor told me to do two years ago, "Buy everything you can get your hands on"! (property wise)


Can you believe it?

Anonymous said...

Building official and staff engineer for a "fly-over" municipality. I think we just hit the wall. Lots of housing and commercial development underway, but most was planned years ago. There's clearly a slowdown in new plans being submitted for review.

Anonymous said...

Time to re-watch the 'peak of the market' real-estate broker commercial when the husband gets 'p-whipped' by his wife into agreeing to buy some house somewhere. At the same time the dominatrix real estate agent is humiliating him over the phone.
I 'pity the fool' and wonder how the douche bag wimp is doing now?
Is this clip around?

Pon Raul said...

anon said:

---

"I 'pity the fool' and wonder how the douche bag wimp is doing now? Is this clip around?"

---

Oh yes! That would be the "Suzanne" clip. Such a shameless, awful commercial. I love it! Delicious in its propaganda. It makes me squirm at the hubris! I could watch it over and over like a mini horror film.

That doughy idiot is probably getting screamed at by his withering shrew FOR BUYING the house which is ruining their lives now, and he howls out his only defense as he cowers in his unpainted garage -

"BUT SUZANNE RESEARCHED IT!!!"

(why does no one paint the sheet rock in their garage, btw? It sits in its skim coat forever...)

Hey... now I know what the new, hot occupation is going to be! Divorce lawyer.

the real peyton manning said...

That's right anon 4:49, and don't forget about the $10,000 signing bonus.

dagg said...

TRUMP MORTGAGE FLOP TIED TO CREDENTIALS FLAP

http://tinyurl.com/34blp6

Paul E. Math said...

I am a software consultant working with an investment management system. I am worried about my job more than I ever have been.

My employer is not suffering yet but what happens when the profitability of our clients deteriorates? It seems it would be much harder for someone to get the budget approval for our software.

No negatives are currently being felt but I am watching for signs. In no way do I feel I am safe or immune from an economic decline, particularly one felt by the banking and financial services industry. And there is very little I can do about it.

Natural Eyebrows said...

I'm a bankruptcy lawyer.

Business is picking up.

Daniel (the other one) said...

I'm not too worried about my job yet.

My particular job in Silicon Valley is pretty far upstream of the consumer. So once consumer spending gets pinched, then my customers will slow down their spending, and then it might get tough for me. But that's probably a year away.

I could use a break from working anyway. If I lose my job maybe I'll buy one of those foreclosed houses in SW Florida. A year from now, they'll be practically free.

Anonymous said...

I left a discount brokerage house in '01 to become the police. 6 months after I left, the whole office was evaporated. Lots of my friends were pissed. They thought "I knew something". Ya, I "knew" that when the NASDAQ was cut in half that we would be out of a job. Duh. Peace out.

Anonymous said...

bearish hedge fund manager

Anonymous said...

Is this the clip?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ubsd-tWYmZw

Anonymous said...

What will I do?

Just turn to a life of crime, like Bush/Cheney and the GOP regime.

Break the laws, steal, cheat, murder, destroy, cover-up, lie...

Doesnt matter.

sa said...

If it gets realy bad, I will ask my wife to do some escort service business herself and make some money.

SimiSteve said...

OK, I am Fu#ked for sure. At least my divorce and subsequent selling the ASSET to settle up in 07/05 leaves me with a pretty good cusion! I am the Manager of a multi-branch wholesale LANDSCAPE & IRRIGATION supply co. hahahahaah so far! I am seeing the cracks and some of my customers are starting to realize something is in the air! I have been telling my guys to stay out of debt for over a year now. One just paid 35k for a Yukon! His wife wanted it! His head was hanging low when he told me. That was a month ago. He could hardly look me in the eye the past couple of weeks as the sh*t has been hitting the fan. I think 90% of the sheeple still dont get the magnitude of what is happening and what will come from it. One of the owners of the company has bought 5 houses in the past 1-3 years and she still thinks I am too negative about housing. Did not go there with her in the past two weeks. At least she can't BK the company for personal gains, I hope.

Anonymous said...

100%

Anonymous said...

I am a socialist and will make life better for everyone when we take over

resisting husband said...

The chances are 100%. I already lost my job working for a homebuilder.

Anonymous said...

the real peyton manning said...
That's right anon 4:49, and don't forget about the $10,000 signing bonus.

August 19, 2007 6:30 PM
------------
Up to 20K for certain specialties and FYI you can be as old as 42 now!!!

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Wait outside condo towers with a tire iron and beat the rich when they emerge and steal their wallets?

August 19, 2007 4:50 PM
------------
Umm sorry, the only people walking out of condo towers now are people stealing copper pipes & wiring, appliances etc. So they just might beat you with some of the pipes & heavy gauge wire they just stole.

Best bet is to stand outside a mortgage brokerage and attack one of the brokers who while laid off now s/he was making six figs for the last few years and likely still has plenty of bling and at least a severance check!! But you better hurry they will be pawning the bling soon & the serverance check might be worthless!!

Joe said...

I'm in an interesting spot. One of the applications of my product is used with large commercial developments (not just housing, but office space, golf courses, hotels, etc.) so the intial thought would be that my income would take a hit, HOWEVER since I'm involved in mezzanine lending and mezz is growing in popularity the natural growth of the medium could outpace the loss from fewer projects. One top of the that, my product works my non-RE assets and is insurance for lenders. As the easy money evaporates and lenders gain more control in the marketplace, my products (which benefit lenders but are paid for by the borrower through increased loan costs) will be utilized more frequently.

Long story short, I think my product will benefit from a bear market. But I do have some backup plans!!!

Anonymous said...

exective for a national apartment house chain,time to raise the rents again heh heh heh

Anonymous said...

Times are getting better and better.
I am a midwestern sec8 landlord. As of today in one of my favorite zip codes there are 53 bank owned houses under 10k and over 200 under 20k. Property taxes - under $1,000/yr. Repairs - 5-10k.
4br voucher rent $800-$850.
You do the math.
I get 2-300 calls a week per rental ad.
Best part? I'll only get better. I am looking forward to break my purchase price record (5k for a side-by-side duplex).
Thank god for subsidized rent. May it last forever!

Anonymous said...

Outside of govt, universities, and health care (doctors, nurses, pharmacists), most private sector folks are in danger of both losing their jobs and then taking a huge pay cut, some 20-30%, to get something else with everyone clamoring for the leftover positions. So, if you're not a successful trader in options/futures/forex, then consider your career starting the slippery slope downhill towards oblivion.

Realize, normal self-employment incomes won't be the way they were in the past with global bidding sites like rentacoder.com having Romanians underbidding 100% of Americans' salaries for IT and tech related work.

Anonymous said...

Anybody making 6 figures right now should be very worried because they are the ones who usually get the boot first. I know because it happened to my wife a few months ago and her sector wasn't related at all to real estate or finance. It was a total surprise to everyone in the company who thought their sector was safe. Apparently not.

I was just reading an interview with a non-profit that serves immigrants in the Northeast, and the spokesperson stated that thousands of immigrants are dropping their house keys and credit cards and fleeing the country. These are not your regular poor Mexicans, they're from another ethnic group who are usually educated and hold better paying jobs. These immigrants are just saying "f*ck this" and going back to their countries of origin.

The spokesperson of this non-profit was also financially screwed, since he was in the hole for 400k while his house war appraised at 300k (and dropping). This story is unfolding in the Boston area, which is not a typical poor area. It's getting "fugly" out there.

Michael Eisenberg said...

I'm a patent attorney with a nation-wide practice so I guess my business is more a reflection of the country as a whole. The US is a strong intellectual property (technology) exporter so I don't believe an economic downturn would hurt me unless it gets so bad (think great depression-type downturn) that people stop caring innovating.

Anonymous said...

All the job growth is in nursing, right now. This occupation was responsible for more than 38% of the job growth in the last few years. We are becoming a nation of nurses and people without health insurance. How ironic.

Anonymous said...

I heard that the McCain (Keating 5) campaign team is offering stable jobs...NOT!

Hey people, as we witnessed here on this blog months ago, during a HPers wage comparison round, there's a wage bubble going on in the US, too. Watch out for that to pop in the next few months.

David in JAX said...

Anonymous said...
exective for a national apartment house chain,time to raise the rents again heh heh heh


This anon obviously does not work for a "national apartment house chain" since rents are FALLING.

Anonymous said...

Oh boy, I know one thing, I've never been so busy in the sac. It's amazing what these unemployed realtwhores and bartenders are willing to do in exchange for some cheap Coach handbags and a pair of 7 For All Mankind designer jeans.

k.w. - southern ca. said...

This country is becoming more and more "3rd-world" each day.

Our private sector has all been demolished (no manufacturing, out-sourcing of information technology, etc...)

While the public sector is doing fine - at least for now - while they can obtain revenue from tax paying US citizens.

Several work associates of mine, all highly skilled consultants, have lost their jobs - and are still looking for *decent* work.

Since we relied so much on housing to fuel the economy, we ignored other areas which would have provided more long-term sustained growth within our economy.

k.w. - southern ca. said...

You are so correct, and as someone in the health-care field who knows first-hand what costs patients must incur, I can see the troubling signs ahead as costs increase far beyond what most people can pay - it's a huge crisis unfolding.

Hospitals, Fire Departments and Police Stations exist in large part to those working in the private sector.

When our private sector is gone we
are finished as a country - because
that is what made our country strong and self-sustaining.

~~~

Anonymous said...
Outside of govt, universities, and health care (doctors, nurses, pharmacists), most private sector folks are in danger of both losing their jobs and then taking a huge pay cut, some 20-30%, to get something else with everyone clamoring for the leftover positions. So, if you're not a successful trader in options/futures/forex, then consider your career starting the slippery slope downhill towards oblivion.

Realize, normal self-employment incomes won't be the way they were in the past with global bidding sites like rentacoder.com having Romanians underbidding 100% of Americans' salaries for IT and tech related work.

Anonymous said...

"Realize, normal self-employment incomes won't be the way they were in the past with global bidding sites like rentacoder.com having Romanians underbidding 100% of Americans' salaries for IT and tech related work. "

Which is why I will be leave the IT field once I get laid off from my current position. I work for a large mortgage company, so my days are numbered.

Thanks, George Bush and Alan Greenspan. You sure made America a better place by pandering to Wall Street.

Anonymous said...

"I'm a bankruptcy lawyer.

Business is picking up."

I envy you the "come to Jesus" moments you're going to see from countless formerly arrogant pigs.

Think you'll be collecting any fees "in trade" from hot, dumb suburban housewives?

Anonymous said...

Mercedes sales Im screwed

Anonymous said...

caption;

"PULL MY FINGER"!

Ben Dover said...

I am a broadcast engineer. Not at all worried about a job. As people dump their cable and satellite TV they will sit on their fat asses at home watching the shit we pump out 24/7. After THEY lose their jobs...

Anonymous said...

Good luck trying to find a place to live, cheap car insurance, and a good job, after laid-offs and crappy credit:

"After foreclosure

It may be hard to find a new lease on life

(SD Union Tribune) Some displaced homeowners are getting a cool reception as the surge in real estate foreclosures sends them back to the rental market in search of shelter.


NANCEE E. LEWIS / Union-Tribune
Sonya Fitzgerald (at sink) is now renting in El Cajon as a roommate. Her home was lost to foreclosure. "I couldn't do it anymore. I used all my savings," she said.
Although landlords welcome the business, they are carefully screening applicants to make sure they remain creditworthy.

Nevel DeHart of First Advantage SafeRent, a national tenant-screening company, warns that homeowners often are deeply in debt by the time a foreclosure occurs. With no financial reserves to fall back on, they sometimes make poor rental risks, he said. “There is just no margin for error.”

Ron Bowdoin, who oversees 2,500 rental units for the SARES-REGIS Group in Los Angeles and the Inland Empire, said foreclosure victims often fail to meet his company's credit standards.


NANCEE E. LEWIS / Union-Tribune
Fitzgerald helped son Micah, 4, get ready for a beach outing in the apartment she now shares after disclosing to a rental agent the loss of her home.
“As they reach the brink of foreclosure, their credit reports have suffered tremendously,” he said. “We have to do a co-signer or large deposits to get them into apartments.”

Anonymous said...

i am retired. I sit around all day and watch cnbc in order to get some laughs and post a few comments on some blogs. My viagra supply is out so due to budgetary constraints I have to wait until next month to go down to Mexico and refresh it. So that leaves me hanging for a while...

Anonymous said...

>>>> Anonymous said...

I am a socialist and will make life better for everyone when we take over

August 19, 2007 10:00 PM <<<


perhaps you like the movie "soylent green"....?

Anonymous said...

>>>Anonymous said...

I'm a REALTOR(TM) and times have never been better!!!!!!

(just kidding)

August 19, 2007 2:56 PM <<<

OH MY GOD!! SOMEBODY GET A ROPE...!

SimiSteve said...

Anon 12:09
too bad for you, you will be back here again. This time as the debtor! Too late......to change

simisteve said...

Joe,
Great post! Just one question, WTF!
Why are you not giving us the inside scoop? Sell me, sell me, please!

po' folks said...

We'll probably have to grow everything we eat, and live without power.

cabbiesouth said...

Anyone need a Cab. Cash only, Sorry no credit cards. but if it works at the gas station maybe we can work something out.

The_Scum said...

Chemical Engineer by degree.

I make electricity.

I've been laid off before but doubt I will be because of a downturn. I say that because there is a shortage of people who do what I do right now.

Thank God Realtors and mortgage brokers can't just become engineers.

I have two years plus living expenses in the bank if needed.

Anonymous said...

very good chance I lose my job. i have been on the bench for quite some time.

Anonymous said...

"What are the chances you'll lose your job or income stream during this economic downfall?"

I'm upper Management, unless the entire corporation goes out of business, or we are sold off, which I doubt will happen, I am safe. For me to lose my job, I would have to voluntarily leave or do something illegal.

What do you do?

Western Regional Operations Manager for an International conglomerate. I am responsible for the P&L statement for the region. I oversee HR, IT, Quality, Safety, Fleet, Sales and inventory.

I have not laid off anyone yet and our business which caters to Energy is still very strong.

My wife however, works for a title company in Phoenix. Her position is tentative at best with the downturn. Her company has already laid off many of her coworkers.

Anonymous said...

Oh please God, let it happen..
Donald "arrogant" Trump and Rosie the Idiot in the same unemployment line.

Happy HomeDebtor said...

(yawn)
I'm a gov't contractor working as a project manager. I have 2 degrees and my PMP certification, and I'm in gradschool working on dual-degree with an MBA. In 2 years, I'll be more qualified on paper than just about anyone in my company, except maybe 1-2 people including the CEO. My wife works in healthcare and had a dozen hospitals fighting to give her bonuses to work for them when she graduated. We got our house for almost 20% off effectively, and it's just over 3x our annual income. I could get a new job in 24-72 hours making significantly more if necessary.

The credit-card debt is all 0% interest after this month, and will be paid off within another 6 months before it accumulates interest. I don't pretend - as most of you do - to be a millionaire ivy league genius. I'm just an ambitious ladder climber taking my own path, who's a "stupid investor" according to Ben Stein. You go be smart and time the market - my wife and I will be stupid and enjoy our gradually increasing financial reserves and investment portfolio, and decorating/landscaping our *home* while things work themselves out.

RandomName said...

Hard to tell.

On the one hand my job isn't related to housing or finance or consumers too much. I'm an engineer and my company does design work for projects around the world. My company has been hiring just as fast as they can since most of the company's original employees are baby boomers approaching retirement. Infact most of my industry is hiring. My company is also getting really good raises right now, and I can only assume this is due to our foreign business.

On the other hand my company was purchased in a Leveraged Buyout by a company that has been doing lots of LBO's. They aren't even familiar with our specialty. Furthermore they got their loans in Euros rather than USD.

I personally should be okay. I have savings and job skills, and better yet DIY and savings skills. I think I could get through a repeat of the great depression... I just hope I don't need to.

Desert Rat said...

None. As a criminal defense attorney my client base is, unfortunately, reliable and steady. Fact is business tends to get better when others lives get worse. And yes, I really am this devoid of conscience.

Andrew said...

mid to low chances...even if many of our customers go bankrupt. the software we sell usually results in people being laid off, so in recessions companies actually seek our product as a way to get rid of people. my biggest ever deal was for an energy company that laid off 40% of its IT staff after they implemented our solution.

i am a manager at a software company. things will have to go really wrong before we go under, by which point there will be some kind of war or something crazy. at which point i will simply say f@ck it and become an eco-warrior

NobodySpecial said...

All I do is read housing panic and other blogs at work. I've done no work of any real value since about April. And yet here I am making over $100K. If I haven't been let go, I'm guessing things are OK.

Minimum Wage said...

I work in an e. If the economy goes south, we'll just sell more 40s. Our biggest near-term concern is a proposed large hike in cigarette taxes, which will hurt sales and profits.

Anonymous said...

Relatively recession-proof job, but one that could be disintermediated. Also a little high on the pay scale in programming/project management. So if I'm out, it'll be a bit of a scramble. On the plus side, I have transferable skills, would like the excuse to try working for myself, and have enough savings to tide over for a while. Hey Mom! Can I have my old room back? Smiles.

RE Investor said...

David in Jax Said:

"Anonymous said...
exective for a national apartment house chain,time to raise the rents again heh heh heh

This anon obviously does not work for a "national apartment house chain" since rents are FALLING. "

David, can you quote where you get these figures from? I am not trying to flame, I am just curious. As here in Phoenix (I am a multiple rental owner) I have seen rental rates go up 5% and also those typical signs that you normally see in front of apartment buildings that promise free rent for a month, concessions etc. have all but disappeared. I have also received more calls from people wanting to rent property than I have had in about 3 years. It's too bad I already have leases and tenants, I probably could boost my cash flow a tad. Maybe you are located in a midwestern state? Just wondering if I should sweeten the pot to keep my existing tenants happy, or just keep the status quo....

Anonymous said...

"All I do is read housing panic and other blogs at work. I've done no work of any real value since about April. And yet here I am making over $100K. If I haven't been let go, I'm guessing things are OK."

But don't forget to deliver that TPS report by end of year, Peter...and to return my red stapler.

Joe said...

Simisteve --

Sorry for the ad, but since you asked...I sell UCC insurance. It'e not common but it has become industry standared for mezzanine financing on RE transactions. Basically it is similar to title insurance but it's for personal property. The mezz pledge is personal property.

For none mezz it works like this..borrower pledges collateral, lender does a UCC search to see if there are other liens. The UCC system has many problems (indexing errors, fake terminations, fraud, general errors, etc.) which I point out to lenders. The lenders like my product but the easy money has limited their ability to pass the ANY costs onto their borrower (even though it isn't that expensive compared to other products).

Another great application is for Buyer's of businesses with significant personal property (restaurants, gas stations, hotels, stores, etc.). We insure that the items purchased are free and clear of lien and the policy is very cheap ($175 for $200K policy).

Anonymous said...

Hi I work as a trader on Wall Street and I feel pretty secure for the moment, I mean the last few guys that got laid off weren't vested at the firm, but me, I got 5 years in here so my retirement fund and money market investments should insulate me when things crash.
Oh and by the way i have a studio in my flat where I can always press up some mixtape CD's and put my other talents on display I can sell them in front of Universal Reords Part time for pocket change to supplement the income from my mortgage backed nest egg.

Anonymous said...

I am a Vice President at IndyMac, no fear whatsoever. lalala