July 30, 2007

Want to see what Miami will look like soon? Just look to Thailand today.



Hat-tip Housingdoom for posting this video. Amazing scenes of condo ghost towns.

Oh, the folly of man.

So, serious question - what will become of all the condos and homes under construction around America today, being built by developers who'll go bankrupt before they're finished?

31 comments:

concerned said...

I stayed in Bankok for a couple of days, and noticed exactly what the man in the video is talking about.

Buildings abandoned mid construction.

tim73 said...

Yes, Miami will probably look like that by 2010 plus the usual gang gunfights, robberies and murder below and within.

Empty condos on fire every other day homeland security/police helicopters above, mass rioting and even more gunfights. Welcome to Miami, multiculty hell on earth. All races fired upon equally.

Anonymous said...

.
.
.
.
20 million illegals.

20 million empty houses/condos

doesn't take a PhD in math to figure it out

daniel said...

During the late great tech boom (bubble) Intel started building in downtown Austin, TX. The boom fizzled, and Intel abandoned the building. It was a skeleton for about seven years, and is just now being torn down. Now I'm in Arlington, and you can see that developers have lost heart (no building has stopped completely, like the Intel, but they have slowed considerably). I hope that the same seven year cycle holds and that skeletons don't hang out for more than that time.

christiangustafson said...

Incredible! This is why we blogs are so effective.

I expect to see a few of these here in condo-mad Seattle. My office looks out on the construction site of a wildly overpriced condo-tel (Olive8), and I wouldn't be surprised if they pull the plug on it unfinished. Once the market crash and recession take hold, people will bail left and right on their "sales". The speed of the condo revulsion will shock perennial trend-chasers like developer Paul Allen.

Thanks for posting this, Keith.

Chuck said...

I see this this stuff more as a parallel to what's going on in DC. However, I haven't been to Miami, so can't comment.

Anonymous said...

****************************

Yup, thats Miami

Anonymous said...

The condos in downtown Miami will become affordable housing for the poor. The developers never had any business building luxury condos in impoverished, drug ridden neighborhoods (i.e. da ghetto).

westwest888 said...

Too many robber barons in the US of A for something like THAT to happen. They'd buy up the $30M condo projects for under $10M, put them in the family, and build more generational wealth.

The thing to remember is that everything has a price. You might see $400k condos repriced at $125k, which seems crazy unless you research prices for similar units in 1999.

K.W. - Southern Ca. said...

Excellent video.

Quite possibly, a very realistic scenario that could occur here.

Anonymous said...

ghost towers.....incredible isn't it? we will have this and also ghost neighborhoods full of unfinished and/or unbought and/or repossessed homes....

this is the coming amerika...and in those abandoned buildings you will have hungry homeless squatters, ala, the great depression, only worse....

but heck our great grandfathers sat by as they shoved that federal reserve bank down our collective throats and did nothing. so now we sit and the question begs to be asked...

if we can see the future and it is almost here.......if we know what is coming......if we know why this is happening.....shall we be the generation that does something about all of this or shall we be like the ones that have gone on before us and sit and do nothing....? that is the question....

there are too many writings of the founding fathers speaking to these issues.....taking to the streets and rebelling against this tyranny and this corruption and they felt as i do that this is a good thing for liberty.

Anonymous said...

All the American stuff will get filled fairly soon. There is some amount of overbuilding but by only 1-2%. The population is growing (faster than I'd like) so there will be a need. Also, the US has an effective bankruptcy system so most assets eventually come onto the market at prices that make them viable. Someone will lose the initial investment, but that's tough for them.

Anonymous said...

I grew up in Colorado in the early 90's and vividly remember seeing unfinished apartment/condo buildings built during the late 80's boom.

One thing people don't realize yet is that unfinished buildings attract drug addicts and prostitution like moths to a flame.

Talk to people from Detroit if you want to know more about the Urban Decay phenomenon.

Mark said...

Miami is already starting to look like a modified version of this video. If you look at the new condo towers in Miami at night, you get an idea of how much of it is vacant. It's happening all over Florida. There are a lot of foreign and vulture investors waiting to snap the condos up at 2002 prices. I'm not sure who they think they are going to sell them to.

The condo craze happened in Florida in the late 70s too but back then they were able to convert the buildings to rental apartments. I don't see that happening today. The buildings are too expensive. The average Floridian can not afford $2000+ monthly rent. Florida will continue to be a lousy market until they do something about the stupid tax system and the homeowners insurance.

Anonymous said...

Well at least we can have a good cheap meal in BKK with nice people. Miami Single mom realtors can also look to Bangkok for ideas for future career options.

Joel said...

christiangustafson:
You think Seattle is bad, come take a look at Bellevue. From a single point east of downtown I can count 12 cranes building high rises and there are probably more that I can't see from that point. I don't know if there are more in Seattle, but even if there are you have to remember that this is Bellevue, not a big city. Not even close. Bellevue's population is only about 120,000.

Anonymous said...

Seattle/Bellevue sucks

Anonymous said...

what doesn't suck HP? Seattle sucks. Phoenix sucks. Las Vegas sucks. DC sucks. Every city is awful according to you.

What a bunch of whiny people. Grow up.

Anonymous said...

Will Miami look like that before or affter gold hits $5000?

DOPES

Anonymous said...

where's the 1000 drop on the dow today geniuses?

Anonymous said...

Want to see what Miami actually looks like right now?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIQaQn722QU

Anonymous said...

Journalism today:

1. Don't shower/comb hair.
2. Show shot of getting on motorcycle and eating mangos to fill more time.

Interesting story, get someone professional to present it next time.

sam said...

Erie scene, but won't happen here, unless the banks start failing.
Anything that gets construction financing and a frame in place will move forward, even projects dependent on fraudulent "pre-sales" to dumb money flippers.

Why? In a (conservative) 20% equity 80% debt project, any construction that is underway has already declined by 20%, wiping out the owners equity if they sell or quit the project now.

No reason not to move forward w/ banks financing, however, and hope the market returns in your 1-2 year construction timeframe (or otherwise try to restructure the deal at debt holders expense).

The banks who funded the construction loan are holding the bag here. Most developers have taken enough chips off the table to play the coming restructuring market.

Anonymous said...

I read last week that several gourmet restaurants in chi-chi areas of Miami are closing down due to a lack of customers. Yep, the days of wannabe lifestyle financed by housing con flips or housing ATM are coming to an end.

Anonymous said...

BTW, nice mangoes with Hepatitis C.

Anonymous said...

The potential future for Miami, Las Vegas & Phoenix

Anonymous said...

keith you are mr. drama king even for you on this one. Miami is not BKK.

Anonymous said...

I keep hearing these things from high up in the power structure.

This popping is being encouraged. Follow the money. Who benefits?

yoski said...

I don't think Miami will look like that in 10 years. The condos in Miami are nearing completion. The $500K, 1000 sqft condos might be priced at a more reasonable $100 - 150 per sqft. You'll see, @ 75% off they'll sell rather nicely.
Makes great starter housing for young families with easy access to infrastructure and jobs. Really handy once peak oil hits.
But really, $500K for a measly 2/2 condo with 1000 sqft??? What were they thinking? For $500K you can buy a nice mansion in most places.

Anonymous said...

they had a bad recession during the late late 80's into the early 90's in houston. there were brand new buildings in downtown houston that had been built and were completely empty. no one was renting office space. it was strange. this also took place in austin as well. matter of fact, one of the empty buildings that i am talking about was the same building that enron moved into...oh well.......

Anonymous said...

? For $500K you can buy a nice mansion in most places.

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Like where? $500K in my neck of the woods buys a 1500 sq ft 30 year old home in a not so nice part of town