July 02, 2007

A quick note to realtors, HP trolls, the NAR, Desperate Homedebtors and everyone fighting the housing crash: Give up. You're wasting your time

You're wasting your time and energy fighting the housing crash. There's nothing, absolutely nothing, that you can do to stop this crazy thing.


HP is not your enemy. The MSM stories on the housing crash won't go away. Home prices won't stop coming down, not for a long, long time. Demand won't pick up. Oversupply won't go away. New credit won't start sloshing around. Ignorance won't increase. Lending standards won't be relaxed.

Embrace the crash. Accept the reality. Fighting the crash would be like fighting gravity.

So stop fighting. You're wasting precious time. And start getting ready.

71 comments:

Horatio said...

if only FHA,Freddie,Fannie would stop fighting the crash.

get rid of gov subsidies and we could have affordable housing.

everything the gubbermint pretends to fix the opposite happens. (intentionally?)

True americans want a housing crash to restore affordability. Zero down loans wont help!! stop with the zero down govmernment help for gawds sake!!!

They understand illusions. said...

Its all in wiring. When people are faced with a crisis they tend to redouble those efforts that have been successful. Its very hard for people to change. If you are used to hustling, selling and believing fantasies (why not it worked very well for a while), it will be hard to adapt to a no credit having to produce something of value lifestyle. I know a woman in Miami beach who is unemployed and has no marketable skills and lives off of child support. What she has done is constantly refinance and take cash out. She took out a 700k mortgage, paid off a 500k mortgage and is living off the balance. She does not work and is "involved in the community" and has even run for Miami Beach city council. Of course its not sustainable but she really believes that when the money runs out she will still be able to refinance or sell for a profit. Point--think its bad now? Give it another 19 months when reality hits a lot of these credit junkies. Yep the REIC is evil but they understand the American psyche better than we would like to admit... Hard work and discipline are tough--easier to flip and do cash out refinancing!

Anonymous said...

Keith, how could you tell the hp troll his 1.2 million sh*tbox in Death Valley is overpriced???? When he bought 6/05 they told him prices would go up forever!

Anonymous said...

We need alien anti-gravity technology for the housing market.

Anonymous said...

I wish this crash would get its ass over here already. All I am seeing is less sales with the same insane prices. Fewer sales at insane prices doesn't help me much.

Anonymous said...

500,000 iphones sold in 1st weekend and yet the tinfoil hat gang is talking great depression.

When do you give up and realize the world is passing you by yet again?

keith said...

Folks, we have a nominee for dumbest comment by the dumbest poster of all time - saying housing won't crash because Apple makes a great phone

Some people are just beyond our help. But sure are fun to laugh at

'What do you mean my home is worth $50,000 less than I paid last year! Apple's iPhone is selling like hotcakes!"

Brilliant!

Anonymous said...

500K $600 phones sold in 2 days is an indication that the economy is booming. The tin foil hat gang talking about great depressions is a sign that you all seriously need medication.

Economy booming, stock markets booming, yet the tin foil hat gangs talks about depressions.

Anonymous said...

People were warned, it's their fault if they choose not to listen

Anonymous said...

>> 500,000 iphones sold in 1st weekend and yet the tinfoil hat gang is talking great depression.

Just read this morning that 38% of idiots who bought an iPhone last week can't get them activated due to tech difficulties. People who have to have the latest in tech deserve what they get: screwed. Morons...

Anonymous said...

The Apple store in the mall is the only store with people inside spending money. When I walk the mall watching peoples spending habits, its the only stores that has people shopping, and this is before the iphone. The slowest is the pottery barn store, I normally dont ever see the store employees inside.

keith said...

100 million ipods sold and 1/2 of 1% have bought a phone

99.5% haven't

meanwhile, iphone sales have NOTHING AT ALL TO DO WITH HOUSING!

No more threadjack on this one

Osman said...

Threadjacking is pretty amusing... but I have to agree with some of the commenter sentiment.

For most markets, the bubble bursting has turned into mostly a non-event. Even more so than when I first started writing about the bubble and sparring with comments on this blog.

In any case, I'm glad to see some sanity injected in the housing markets. Unfortunately, how it all plays out won't be seen for far longer than a capital market bubble. Prices are generally sticky to the downside, even in markets with now massively bloated inventory. And the reverberations from subprime housing derivatives are only now being felt (i.e., Bear Stearns).

The Fed has held rates steady for a year. When the economy turns, rates will no doubt come down as well further cushioning the downside of post bubble real estate.

Again, in most markets (not all), the impact has been so slow/gradual that it's a non-event. From what I can gather, the general sentiment is that the (overhyped) bubble has turned out to be largely a regional issue and is unwinding in a mostly orderly way.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

500K $600 phones sold in 2 days is an indication that the economy is booming. The tin foil hat gang talking about great depressions is a sign that you all seriously need medication.

Economy booming, stock markets booming, yet the tin foil hat gangs talks about depressions.

July 02, 2007 12:36 PM
------------
There is a booming sound coming from CDO/MBS based hedge funds too, but I see you failed to mention that "booming market". And what are CDOs/MBSs backed by? Toxic mortgage loans, and what backs these toxic loans? Housing, hmmm and how is that going for ya? 2 million + foreclosures, rates rising and causing dramatic adjustment in ARM rates, inventory at 4.4 million +, all devaluing the very asset that backs the toxic mortgages that back the CDOs/MBSs that backs the Hedge funds. But feel free to continue to ignore the elephant in the room, dumba$$!!

Anonymous said...

Don't underestimate ignorance. It will still increase. The planet continues to get dumber daily.

Anonymous said...

Obviously, all realtors need to do to sell houses is include a free iphone. The buyers should come crawling out of the woodwork.

Anonymous said...

I bet that a lot of i-phones were bought via credit card as oppose to cash/debit or charge card (credit cards paid in full for dividends/miles).

So yes, it speaks highly of the credit machinery but that's about it.

Anonymous said...

I'm going wait till next year to get my Iphone for $400.

It seems the flippers have turned to Iphones to make a buck and they're going loose on that investment too.

Anonymous said...

Remember Greg Swanny.

It has been almost one year from this post. Who do you think won.



Garth Farkley July 29th, 2006 7:10 pm
Just remember, Greg, the internet is forever. Some of us will be right and some will be wrong. I acknowledge the possibility of my own error. In my experience humility is generally a mark of wisom.

You, however, set yourself up as an icon of certitude. Good luck with it. Time will certainly tell.

Did you ever notice when people come back from Vegas you hear a lot about who won? People don’t come back and brag about blowing the college fund. Just human nature.

But, I’m putting a note in Outlook. I’ll Google this site in July ‘07 and see if you’re still crowing. Or still here.

If I’m wrong I’ll admit it. Since you’ve set out the challenge I’d expect you to do the same. I know it’s highly unlikely and all, seeing as how you can tell the future and everything. But you have made it clear that you people should publicly acknowledge their errors.

Greg Swann July 29th, 2006 7:38 pm
> Since you’ve set out the challenge I’d expect you to do the same.

I always do. I don’t love to be proved wrong, but I don’t hate it. Being wrong is how one learns to be right more often.

But: I have not made any predictions about dates. I don’t know that this slowdown will be over in 12 months. The case I argue for here and generally is that the Phoenix residential real estate market has a great future in the long-run. The run up in values from 06/04 to 012/05 was a temporary anomaly, as is this slowdown. The long-run history of the Phoenix market has been excellent, as will be the area’s long-run future. If you like, I’ll send you a listing for a reasonably priced house suburban home, the kind of property that attracts premium tenants. You can drop me an email any time you want to kick yourself for not having bought it.

anon666 said...

iPhone=xBox=Beanie Babies=HP

It's all the same mentality. These posters (trolls?) really don't get the point yet.

I remember the camping out, waiting in line, getting on a waiting list for the privilege of buying a new KB Homes production house. According to their logic, this proves the economy is doing great... man, at one level I want to laugh at this but on a bigger level it really is sad at how stupid society has become.

The Thinker said...

The only thing the success of the iPhone shows is that people are fed up with the poor quality cell phones that the wireless networks have been forcing down out throats.

The sale of iPhones doesn't have much to do with housing, except perhaps, the popularity of a $600 phone shows us that inflation is RAMPANT and the dollar is devaluing at an alarming rate! Even if housing prices remain constant in dollar terms, their real value is still in free fall.

Anonymous said...

Keith said "Ignorance won't increase".

While I generally agree with your views I believe you messed up on this quote.

The recent iphone poster proves it.

Anonymous said...

hey what do you know ISM is at 3 year high...DOW is up yet another 100

Oh but in tinfoil hat world the economy is crashing, a great depression is coming.

Keep it up losers.

Anonymous said...

New adopters of technology tend to be young males. Because of the housing bubble many young males haven't been able to purchase property.

This is why iphones are being purchased. When rent only costs $500 a month justifying a shiny new gadget makes sense.

My point being...

Renters have a huge amount of spending money they can just blow. Because they haven't bought into the housing hype.

Anonymous said...

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/06/gaming-the-data.html

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

500,000 iphones sold in 1st weekend and yet the tinfoil hat gang is talking great depression.

When do you give up and realize the world is passing you by yet again?

July 02, 2007 12:16 PM
-----------
http://tinyurl.com/244yk

And your point? Stupid masses purchase high tech item before the bugs are worked out and a service network exists to support them? If what you mean is that its just as stupid like the masses taking out sub-prime loans on over-valued assets then I'd agree with you.

Anybody remember Apple's iPod fiasco with the batteries? The battery was a few bucks but the case was designed so that you could not open the damn thing to replace it. Calls to the Apple customer service center got the reply "Buy a new 500 USD iPod." The back lash almost tanked the whole damn thing from being a success. Appel zealots put up websites, videos and petitions, one guy actually threw his iPOd at Jobs at an event and cursed him. So what is Apple do? The replaced all the damn batteries at cost & set up a one time battery replacement warranty program.

Looks like they did not learn the lesson from their past brush with stupidity!! Sub-prime borrowers will not be so lucky!!!

Ron said...

Osman said = everything will be ok.

Interesting, I guess you can tell me what the score of a baseball game will be after the 1st inning? I mean that is what you are doing here, we have tons of more resets to go, OC and LAC haven't even started to reel in their pricing. The bloodbath in Florida although bad, money wise will not even scratch the surface of the California numbers which are staggering. Yet, we can say with authority that this has blown over, because you know this because...what? Is this a gut feeling you have, because you want to ignore the reset schedule and the inventories and the afford ability index and all the other indicators?

Anonymous said...

LA median price is still going up Keith. As is San Francisco, Seattle, Charlotte, Nashville, San Antonio and a few others.

There are couple of regional corrections. Unless you live in Las Vegas, Phoenix or Florida this crash is non-existent. And even in PHX or LAS or MIA, it is much less severe than you are making it out.

Housing crash of 2007 is like y2k; some validity to it, yet overall more hype than anything else.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

500,000 iphones sold in 1st weekend and yet the tinfoil hat gang is talking great depression.

When do you give up and realize the world is passing you by yet again?

July 02, 2007 12:16 PM
------------

Yeah Right the Apple iPhone Launch means everything is fine, NOT Dumba$$

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/RBI-0085-17867104.htm

http://blogs.business2.com/netly/2007/07/whats-left-to-s.html

Guy Daley said...

Actually Keith the HP trolls can continue ad infinitum. Since they are completely anonymous, there is no embarassment and they can make fools of themselves for perpetuity. What is to stop them? They are completely invisible. Just like graffiti artists, the cockroaches that come out at night to vandalize without thought.

They cannot be educated so until you fix the anonymity device, they will always be here.

Mark in San Diego said...

All we need to know "500 BILLION of ARMS reset in 2007, 700 BILLION reset in 2008". . . according to Bank of America research report, 2/3 of resets next year are sub-prime or Alt A. . .BTW - Iphone comment . . .during the depression, the movie industry made a fortune, and movie theaters were packed. . .also radio came into its own, and even the airlines made money. . .think about THAT iphone guy.

Mark in San Diego said...

More on I-phone comment - yes, agree, probably the single dumbest comment I have seen on this board in a year and a half. . .

"Party room packed on Titanic - drink sales up 80%!!!. . .

Yes - there are always people with money - this time will be no different - PF Changs will still get a good crowd on Friday night, and I-phones will sell. . .I am glad my grandfather gave me first-hand insights into the great depression. . .although 25% of the people were unemployed, 75% were working - prices for the 75% came down, and actually, life was pretty good if you had a job. . .housing prices came down, car prices came down, food prices came down. . .but is sucked if you were part of the 25%!

Anonymous said...

Oh my gosh!! Hienz ketchup sold a whole lot of ketchup last week! The economy must be o.k. I'm going to go buy a house now!

Anonymous said...

I know you said my house is only worth half what I paid, but I'm talking to you on my NEW COMCAST SERVICE this time.

Sorry, Roger, you broke now.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
500,000 iphones sold in 1st weekend and yet the tinfoil hat gang is talking great depression.

When do you give up and realize the world is passing you by yet again?

Yup, and I would bet my paycheck that less then one percent of those phones are actually paid for. Unless you can prove that most of those phones are paid for this story is not good news, it's just another bubble indicator.

Guy Daley said...

OH MY GOD! Now I know why teachers think there job is so hard. Its like beating your head against a rock. How to you educate people that REFUSE to be educated? I really try to not let the anonypussys get my goat but I guess unless we pay these idiots to accept facts they will continue to live in there mushroom filled world.

Anonypussy says:

LA median price is still going up Keith. As is San Francisco, Seattle, Charlotte, Nashville, San Antonio and a few others.

There are couple of regional corrections. Unless you live in Las Vegas, Phoenix or Florida this crash is non-existent. And even in PHX or LAS or MIA, it is much less severe than you are making it out.

Go to this website you poor deluded anonypussy and inform yourself. Honestly, it won't hurt. Its okay to learn new things and be aware of whats going on around you.

500 Top Foreclosures Zip Codes

http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/19/real_estate/500_top_foreclosure_zip_codes/index.htm

Ron said...

Anonymous said...

LA median price is still going up Keith. As is San Francisco, Seattle, Charlotte, Nashville, San Antonio and a few others.

There are couple of regional corrections. Unless you live in Las Vegas, Phoenix or Florida this crash is non-existent. And even in PHX or LAS or MIA, it is much less severe than you are making it out.

~~~

Ever considered that maybe what you are seeing is the last vestiges of people trying to hold prices? Answer just one question for me, just one with relation to OC, who is going to purchase these homes? You have an ever expanding inventory, and an ever declining pool of people. We have foreclosures happening here just like everywhere else, putting pressure on pricing. We have lost the exotic loans to put people who could never qualify into a house. Now we have a median over 600k and people are going to have to come to the table with good credit and 60k min. Less than 5% of the people in the index can purchase a house....so where are these people going to come from? We lost 50% of value in the 90's after the 80's boom...but now it is different? Yes it is way worse, and it is going to be more painful. So, history has shown us what to expect and all the information is there....where are you getting your facts a RA friend of yours?

Frank@NeverColdCall.com said...

500K $600 phones sold in 2 days is an indication that the economy is booming. The tin foil hat gang talking about great depressions is a sign that you all seriously need medication.

Dumbass. We're not talking about the overall economy. We're talking about housing. Don't you realize that the big money (eh, guys like Steve Jobs) makes most of their profits on housing during a downturn, when they buy up all the under-priced inventory?

The people who lose in a housing crash are desperate homedebtors and realtwhores & other assorted R.E. industry employees ... in other words, YOU. And if you think good iPhone sales are an indicator that your house is going to go up, you are REALLY desperate and need to put away the crack pipe.

As for me, I'll be laughing my ass off when I buy a house in Orange County in a year or two for 40% what they are today.

Tony Soprano said...

Just curious Keith, what is your take on this....

**Selling agent must attend all showings, including inspection, or SOC is 1%.**

Seems like a dagger aimed right at Redfin?

deepcgi said...

This crash is exactly like the Titanic disaster. We struck the iceberg over an hour ago, and yet no one is getting wet. There are so many ways to find cash in a credit bubble that people postpone the inevitable for as long as possible. Remember the Terry Jones sequence in Erik the Viking.

"Your island is sinking!"
"No, it isn't. Keep singing everyone."

Anonymous said...

I know someone who waited months to get her iPhone, even though she has no money, and lives hand-to-mouth. She is addicted to technological junk, and has to have everything new. She didn't realize, however, that she had to use the phone service chosen by Apple, at a monthly cost far higher than what she was paying before.

The fact that there are so many loons out there who have to jump on every bandwagon doesn't mean there is no housing bubble crashing, but rather points to the kind of idiocy that created the housing bubble, now crashing, in the first place.

anon666 said...

anon 3:35 said "LA median price is still going up Keith. As is San Francisco, Seattle, Charlotte, Nashville, San Antonio and a few others."

Wow, where do we start on this one? The median price is going up because more expensive homes are selling and lower priced starter homes are not selling. The crash of the subprime market wiped out a large percentage of folks like you who would have been buying these lower priced homes. Non subprime people with cash and good income are still buying the higher priced homes, a market not accessible to the subprime people.

An increase in median price does not necessarily mean that the value of homes are increasing as you implied. Please think before you post....

MarkIFC said...

Some of these property owners out there are crazy!
Get this-- my friends just sold their home and are trying to decide whether to rent for a while or maybe build a smaller home. They went to look at a 3 acre parcel that was nice but way over priced at $100,000. Now mind you, the owner has had only one low ball offer in 10 months on the market. But when she heard from the Realtor that my friends were interested, and had cash from selling their house, she told her Realtor to raise the price to $130,000. (It went up to $130K in the MLS the next day) My friends told the Realtor to tell the lady to stick it up her a**. They were not going to buy it even at half that price. Two days later the MLS listing was back down to $99,900.

sam said...

Hell yeah iphone! New era baby! Tech always moves forward!

I borrowed $10k at 18% and got a crew of illegals to wait in line with me. Those guys are great- such hard workers.

After my 20 i-phones appreciate 100% to $1200 in 1 year, I plan to sell them on e-bay and take a vacation. After that, I'll by 40 phones, though I'll probably only get normal appreciation. Think I may hold onto a couple as a long term investment.

You tinfoil hatters may be laughing at me, but when i'm on easy street living 'da good life, maybe running some seminars on entrepreneurism jokes on you. Suckers!

SAM

PS. actually did buy an iphone this weekend. very cool, but the network sucks.

MarkIFC said...

In regards to the iPhone:
I know 2 people who bought one-
My sister-In-Law bought one for her daughter, even though they are behind on other bills because her daughter "Is not going to be the only one in her class without one".
The other guy bought one even though the AT&T service required has horrible coverage in his area.
SHEEPLE !!!

Sellin @ Da Drop said...

"The tin foil hat gang""


That must be the '2007' term given to us. Last year it was 'chicken little'. Meanwhile all the asswipes that smirked when they called me chicken little in 06, change the topic real quick as soon as some one starts talkin' housing prices! Suck it good ignoramus, non-informed, delusional sheeple. I am sure you can still squeez in that iPhone on that HELOC-COCK. One more for the road beyotch! You only live once right?

Sellin @ Da Drop said...

"Unless you live in Las Vegas, Phoenix or Florida this crash is non-existent."

Dude you are an ASS! Here in Riversippi..I mean Riverside, CA...home sales declined almost 50% form last year, a glut of inventory, selling prices dropping 10k a month and a sheeeatload of foreclosures. Amazing with this happening now, an asswipe says "what housing crash?' Holy shit.

Anonymous said...

Keith, did you read this?

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/metro/4935311.html

U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Lake Jackson, the Libertarian-leaning contender for the Republican presidential nomination, long has waged war on the widespread federal spending he views as outside constitutional boundaries.

But the congressman, who often votes against spending bills, including funds for the Iraq war, leads the Houston-area delegation in the number of earmarks, or special funding requests, that he is seeking for his district. He is trying to nab public money for 65 projects, such as marketing wild shrimp and renovating the old movie theater in Edna that closed in 1977 — neither of which is envisioned in the Constitution as an essential government function.

Anonymous said...

HP is not your enemy. The MSM stories on the housing crash won't go away. Home prices won't stop coming down, not for a long, long time. Demand won't pick up. Oversupply won't go away. New credit won't start sloshing around. Ignorance won't increase. Lending standards won't be relaxed.

_______

The only part I disagree with is "Ignorance won't increase"...I think Americans are perfectly willing to continue being dumbed down.

Anonymous said...

I know someone who waited months to get her iPhone, even though she has no money, and lives hand-to-mouth.

________

See what I mean about ignorance increasing? Plenty of room for that.

kitchenstove said...

Forget it. We could all be wearing rags and eating bread and water and the trolls, clutching their moldy bread angrily, would still be bragging about rising home prices, iPhone sales, and steak sandwiches. It's a waste of time trying to convince determined trolls of anything.

Anonymous said...

500K $600 phones sold in 2 days is an indication that the economy is booming.

______

To extrapolate the sales of a new gadget as an indicator that the economy is robust is the height of stupidity.

Look, idiot...the dollar is crashing against the Euro, the British Pound, copper, lead, gold, silver (even though the latter two are heavily manipulated)...the implosion of hedge funds that are tied to defaulting mortgage debt is very very real and now widely recognized even in the mainstream media...

If you are blind to what is happening, which obviously you are, you deserve everything you're about to get.

Anonymous said...

For most markets, the bubble bursting has turned into mostly a non-event.

______

Really? Tell that to the multi-billion-dollar hedge funds that are based on defaulting mortgage debt. Tell it to Bear Stearns.

DOLT!

Anonymous said...

BWA HA HA HA!! You people really do live in a different world. You talk about crashes, end of the world, great depressions, etc. Then you turn around and give examples of people buying homes, buying iphones, eating at PF Changs.

Idiots, this is evidence that the economy is booming. Keep renting your little hovels and driving those 19 year old Hondas if it makes you feel good. I'll live in the 21st century mysefl.

Fucking losers.

Anonymous said...

500K $600 phones sold in 2 days is an indication that the economy is booming.
----------------

500K $600 phones purchased with what? CREDIT CARDS. Credit cards paid off with HELOCS, or not at all. Oh what a world. Be happy with what you have people...life can be so simple.

Anonymous said...

Trolls keeping talking of a booming economy and high incomes, but what does 100k a year do if you paid 500k for your house. Your still in way over your head in debt and mortgage payments.

Anonymous said...

Still illegally offering cash back in Phoenix

http://phoenix.craigslist.org/apa/363046755.html

Osman said...

Ron,

Do you know what a straw-man argument is? It's where you set-up your opponent by summarizing their opinion erroneously and in such a way for an easy knock down.

That's what you did when you wrote, "Osman said = everything will be ok."

For the record, I didn't say that Ron. Nor would I. For those wallowing in debt and struggling to keep their heads above water, the post bubble real estate market has and will continue to be too much. That's why we're seeing a record number of foreclosures. Why in bubble markets, inventories have gone up 5x, 10x, or more.
----------
As for Anon and his comment on Bear Stearns; there are currently two hedge funds which were heavily invested in subprime housing derivatives that are now of concern. These funds have been extended credit lines into the billions, but Bear can well afford to do so and "bail-out" (if you can call it that) the funds if necessary. With 93Bn in current assets, a current ratio of .38, and 2.0Bn+ in net income. I think Bear can find a way to absorb a couple hundred million in the losses.

By the way, there will continue to be carnage in subprime, but remember that subprime is a relatively small percentage of the housing market. The subprime lenders and investors in subprime derivative took risks and got fat on the profits. They're now experiencing the other side of that relationship between risk and return.

The question is whether subprime will eventually be the catalyst to slow the economy to recession. For now, Bear Stearns is not doing that.

Obviously, you'll find plenty of pundits and commentors far more qualified than me. But if you ask me, I think because of the overblown housing bubble, much of the downturn is already baked into the numbers. Short of another terrorist attack, we'll see periodic volatility into a gradual lull in the economy 6-18 months from now. At that point, rates will come down and cushion some of the negative impact on the housing market.

Guess we'll wait and see...

Sellin @ Da Drop said...

"Idiots, this is evidence that the economy is booming. Keep renting your little hovels and driving those 19 year old Hondas if it makes you feel good. I'll live in the 21st century mysefl."

Hey MYSEFL..
Learn to spell correctly you stupid fuck! How about us who own a home, pre-bubble ( before 2000) with a 30 yr fixed at 5.375 and never sucked the Heloc-cock or did the cash refi NEVER! Yes, I drive a 8 year old Honda and will drive it until the wheels fall off. Ask my wife how she is enjoying her new 45k car I bought her last year..cash! Call me when you got the Hummer for sale on craigslist. Keep the spinning 20' rims, you might get some good scratch for those on eBay you beyotch!

robert said...

Osman said...
“By the way, there will continue to be carnage in subprime, but remember that subprime is a relatively small percentage of the housing market.”

Alt-A Loan Defaults Yet To Peak
by Broderick Perkins

It's not just the subprime stew that helped slide the housing market into a slough. Housing is also mired in a muskeg of failing "Alt-A" mortgages.

Suffering from the same untried underwriting and difficult to decipher disclosures that swamped subprime borrowers with foreclosures, "Alt-A" loans made in 2006 suffered 90-day or longer delinquency rates 2.5 times higher than those made in 2005 and 4 times higher than those in 2004, according to LoanPerformance data crunched by analysts at Standard and Poors.

The mortgages analyzed included loans that were foreclosed and represent real estate-owned assets, loans that are in foreclosure, and loans in bankruptcy.

"Alt-A" loans,also called "nontraditional" mortgages, are typically offered to borrowers with credit scores between 620 and 700 and include interest-only loans, option ARMs, "no-doc" loans, those requiring little if any income documentation, and others.

http://realtytimes.com/rtcpages/
20070702_loandefaults.htm

Anonymous said...

The Ron Paul story linked above that speaks of his funding earmarks leaves out the second part of the story.

Dr. Paul doesn't vote yes on the spending bills that include his earmarks. The reason is that the spending isn't constitutional, but he would be doing his district a disservice by not attempting to return taxes paid by his constituents to their district.

What happened to journalism in this age?

Shakster said...

500,000 iphones sold in 1st weekend and yet the tinfoil hat gang is talking great depression.

When do you give up and realize the world is passing you by yet again?

July 02, 2007 12:16 PM
-----------------------------------
Gold Plated Tin Hat,BTW How many did you buy?

peace frog said...

I find all of this talk about “Tin foil hat gang” not only insulting, but also just plain false! According to a recent MIT study titled
“On the Effectiveness of Aluminum Foil Helmets”

“Using a $250,000 network analyzer,… certain frequencies are in fact greatly amplified. These amplified frequencies coincide with radio bands reserved for government use according to the Federal Communication Commission (FCC). Statistical evidence suggests the use of helmets may in fact enhance the government's invasive abilities.”

I bet now you’re thinking HA, all I need is a copper mesh faraday cage and I’ll be free! Wrong!, unless you ground it properly the edges of the helmet will serve as an antenna, broadcasting your innermost thoughts…

Anonymous said...

Trolls keeping talking of a booming economy and high incomes, but what does 100k a year do if you paid 500k for your house. Your still in way over your head in debt and mortgage payments.

July 02, 2007 9:43 PM

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Aint that the truth. I never did understand why 1/2 million dollar shacks were good for the economy. Maybe it helped the speculators but the overall population?

And money is becoming meaningless, there is no real point of reference anymore.

$100K salary is chicken feed, billion dollar hedge funds go out of biz overnight, etc, etc. etc.

Anonymous said...

Get rid of Fannie, Freddie and the FHA loans. Total screw-ups all.

Let the market and fundamentals determine the price of homes.

It is inexcusable to have the government involved in propping up home prices and keeping affordability out of reach for millions.

The North Coast said...

To the donk who thinks that people lining up for the latest gizmo is a sign of a healthy economy, may I offer the following explanations of how this mania might be the opposite?

1. The same people who lined up to buy this thing are the same people who stand in line for the latest X-Box, TiVo, big-screen television, what have you . Could these be the same people who have $40K worth of card debt on incomes of $50K a year?

2. It's easier to buy a $500 phone than a $500K house. Look at our ghettos. They don't own homes, they don't have jobs, they don't have bank accounts, but they have sneakers that cost $200 a pair and they always have the snazziest cell phones to conduct their drug deals on. Consumer junk has been a consolation for economic failure ever since we started handing out credit cards to the masses 50 years ago. With the women it's clothes and furniture; for the men, it's gadgets and sporting events.

3. The public is so credit-strapped most people can't even buy cars, and the I-phone is a substitute for the BMW roadster the buyer really wanted. Corrolary to #2.

The North Coast said...

To those of you who believe that the bubble and its bursting are confined to the coastal markets, I have news: The bubble is bursting everywhere.

I live in Chicago, and sat out the hysterical runup in condo prices in my nabe because of my situation: when prices were cheap I was recovering from a biz failure, and by 2002, when I was ready to bite, they had DOUBLED over 1999 levels, and in some cases tripled.

By 2003, they were up another 30%.

Another 30% in 2004.

They peaked in 2005, most nabes and burbs double 1998 prices, my neighborhood tripled because of recent gentrification.

Now properties allover town sit on the market for up to 600 days, until the seller either capitulates or takes the place off the market. REOs are increasing rapidly. Prices are at last dropping, and new condo developments are being auctioned.

The median price is slightly up because all the low and middle range buyers have been blasted out of the market by the prices, and tightening credit. Only the upper-bracket stuff costing $2MM or more is selling, and not as fast as formerly.

It's OVER. I am waiting for this next wave of resets to work its way through the market, and for sellers and developers to get panicky. It shouldn't take too much longer. Like superheated stock markets, this one will drop faster than it rose. The chart on the housing market resembles that of a Stage 4 stock, where the first drop off the peak has occured. The next leg downslope will be steeper and faster.

Anonymous said...

Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large numbers!

i.e., democrats, treehuggers, liberals, atheists,.......and republicans!

Anonymous said...

"Idiots, this is evidence that the economy is booming. Keep renting your little hovels and driving those 19 year old Hondas if it makes you feel good. I'll live in the 21st century mysefl."

I had a hard time believing it, but I've seen the almost-80-year-old building permits "mysefl". :) For several years after the 1929 stock market crash, my grandfather made a living in residential construction as a contractor. But on his wedding day in the late 30's he wasn't working and was broke. Luckily he scored a municipal job, above 1500 other applicants, and wound up being 3rd in command of a major US metro area fire department by retirement. He says history repeats itself, although he also says nobody can accurately predict the future. Since he is balanced, reasonable, experienced, and still sharp at almost 100, I tend to agree with him when he says that people who insult others' material possessions have everything to lose and often feel threatened. Are you a scared little girl inside or something?

Guy who is not too bad off said...

Anonymous said...
hey what do you know ISM is at 3 year high...DOW is up yet another 100

Oh but in tinfoil hat world the economy is crashing, a great depression is coming.

Keep it up losers.

July 02, 2007 3:25 PM

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I have to agree with this guy. I have been long in the DOW and in Real Estate in (Gasp) Phoenix, and made money on both fronts. The flippers have been killed here, but the true pros, that buy for the long term - with a plan - have done well. The DOW has made me enough just in the last 6 months to offset my losses on paper in my recent RE purchases (recent being 2004). SO as much as I agree that there was a bubble, the long term fundamentals still prove correct. More people, less houses, more jobs, higher rents....Idiots that buy IPhones will just stay as my tenants and continue to allow me to buy more stock.....

Think about it.... said...

Ever considered that maybe what you are seeing is the last vestiges of people trying to hold prices? Answer just one question for me, just one with relation to OC, who is going to purchase these homes? You have an ever expanding inventory, and an ever declining pool of people. We have foreclosures happening here just like everywhere else, putting pressure on pricing. We have lost the exotic loans to put people who could never qualify into a house. Now we have a median over 600k and people are going to have to come to the table with good credit and 60k min. Less than 5% of the people in the index can purchase a house....so where are these people going to come from? We lost 50% of value in the 90's after the 80's boom...but now it is different? Yes it is way worse, and it is going to be more painful. So, history has shown us what to expect and all the information is there....where are you getting your facts a RA friend of yours?

July 02, 2007 5:20 PM

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One fact you got wrong is that in the 90's the defense industry in Southern California was dead. Unemployment was twice at least of what it is now. This time is not worse because people still have jobs. People that are not in 100% loans have enough equity they will just refi the subprime in to a fixed. As long as people have jobs they will find a way. Yes, it is bad, but you can't take a previous downturn, label it "worse" without the facts of WHY it is WORSE. As far as the 60K median, have you seen some of the money around OC right now? Maybe a few of these people are living on credit, but I am willing to bet that there are just a few people that have 60K around. Apparently you have forgotten that some smart people moved the money from their HELOCS in to stock. While risky, the people that have done that have made that 60K at least, off of the bank, paid the bank back, and now are buying either more stock or getting out of the rat race. The media likes to hype that everyone is stupid, but trust me, there are some people that took the money from the bubble, invested and have made a fortune. When the mortgage reset, they simply walked into the bank with cash, and said "screw you".