June 03, 2007

NAR Pending Home Sales falling off a cliff, and an epic, historic housing crash is now fully underway

The NAR can try to spin and lie as hard as they can, but there comes a point folks, like when the water was coming over the bow on the Titanic, when people realize it's all over, and now the rush to the lifeboats begins.

Folks, you are witnessing a housing crash of historic proportions. You will tell your grandkids about this time one day. The gears are starting to lock up now. The center is not holding. And a chain reaction meltdown is fully underway.

I hope you've found your lifeboat. Better hurry, they're getting pretty crowded.

Hat-tip to the excellent housingdoom blog for the chart and truth.


Anonymous said...

But the media said home sales were up!

Anonymous said...

Got gold?!?

The cheapest derivative insurance money can buy!!!

Anonymous said...

you ain't seen nothing yet

Anonymous said...

Lawrence Yun was in Sarasota giving a pep talk to the area realtwhores Thursday. He said the bottom was in and by the year 2045 a $500,000 home today would be worth $10 million. He forgot to tell them they would all be unemployed by then.
It's fitting that he made that statement in Sarasota. Sarasota is the home of the Ringling Clown Museum.

Anonymous said...

www.metrobrokers.com has a daily number of homes for sale in metro Atlanta. That number was 109,800 two weeks ago. Today it is down to 107,900.

That's a pretty good drop in inventory in 2 weeks. I'm guessing it's due to a lot of closings at the end of May since school was out last week and people move when school's out.

This would confirm my suspicions after seeing tons of 'sale pending signs.

Anonymous said...

Normally the home sales is a sawtooth graph with spikes in the spring of each year and troughs in the fall.

This years spike just didn't happen or was just a little bump.

This implies the trough is going to be REAL deep.

Slightly off topic: If size matters, nothing beats a fist.

Anonymous said...

moshe, do you have anything to say about tbis?

area 51 said...

Nice dead-cat bounce in Dec 2006........

area 51 said...

Did you read the Lawrence Yun quote? He's even better than Lereah at lying!
I guess by "stabilization" he means the chart will maintain a 45 degree angle downward. Hey now THAT'S good news! No more "market disruptions"! (up trends)
Yup, Larry, you're right, "similar to year ago comparisons", a 45 degree slope DOWN! (feb-apr 2006) Bring on stabilization baby!!!!

Anonymous said...

Our resident troll is missing today. He must have an open house to host. I'm sure he'll be back tonite.

Anonymous said...

We've found a new strata in employment:

Those that can't do, teach.

Those that can't teach, teach gym.

Those that can't manage the above, are too ugly to hook or to stupid to sell drugs (a little intellect is req'd to stay ahead of the police) become realtwhores or mortgage pimps.

Anonymous said...

QUOTE: "Appleton-Young said there is no question prices also are going to pull back from the "unrealistic appreciation in prices" that occurred during the boom of the 2000s."

Soon the Realtwhores will be the home buyers friend. It hasn't happened yet but it's beginning. CAR head Appleton-Young is starting to call the sellers fools. Remember, realtwhores don't really care how much a home sells for, only that it sells. Something is always better than nothing.

They will soon be the biggest cheerleaders for lowering prices. That is when acceptance and panic will take over.

burn baby burn said...

"Facts smacks you can prove anything remotely true facts" Homer J Simpson

Anonymous said...

The index went from 108 in January to 101. Is that really "falling off a cliff"? I know you guys are in a panic but come on.

Relatedly on the definition of the index: "An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, the first year to be examined, and was the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales."

So have we really fallen off a cliff?

Anonymous said...

I'm ballparking it by eyebaslling the graph, but going from approx 117 - in 1/06 to 102 in 4/07 equals a drop of about 12.8% in 16 months. is that really the huge "housing crash" I keep hearing about?

I bought a few houses in the early 2000's and I'm still sitting on 40% - 60% equity in them. Meantime I get the tax write-offs and rent for close to a break even.
I can handle a few more years of this market without any problem. NAR is definately looking through rose colored glassess, but if you were smart you prepared for this housing recession to happen.

Guy Daley said...

I'll try to put in perspective for all those instant gratification freaks out there.

Lets say there is a really cool crash on the interstate and one of those cameras that monitor traffic pick it up.

You review the film, its really quite spectacular, pieces flying all over, mega rollover, bodies flying out the door. Pretty much in anybodys book, its a CRASH!!

But if you put it in slow motion and things move slow and it takes a long time for the pieces and bodyparts to come to a stop. DOES THAT MEANS ITS NOT A CRASH?!!!!!

Be patient, the slow motion play out gives you time to plan and react BUT first you have to figure out that yes a crash is occuring. If you can't do that, then too bad for you. America is full of sheeple, nothing to be ashamed of. Its quite commonplace actually.

Oh by the way, for the person that was wearing there seat belt in that crash and didn't really get hurt. Does that mean it wasn't a crash?