June 06, 2007

FLASH: NAR (for the fourth straight month) changes its mind, says home prices are gonna fall even further than forecast. Yes, they're run by monkeys.

These monthly predictions from the Incompetent Lawrence Yun and the NAR are hilarious. Too bad they're still not even close to reality.

Come on NAR - just come clean. You're not fooling anyone. Your forecasts are a joke, your data is a joke (got incentives? got cash back?), and your ramen eaters are getting hungrier and hungrier while you spin, lie and deceive.

Home sales, prices to slip further in 2007: NAR

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Home sales and prices will fall at a faster pace in 2007 than originally expected, a leading U.S. real estate trade association said on Wednesday.

The National Association of Realtors trimmed its sales forecast for the fourth straight month and said it now expected sale prices would drop more sharply than it previously forecast

29 comments:

crazy said...

.
.
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and not those cool winged ones from Wizard of Oz, they are run by rhesus AIDS monkeys!

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Good grief Keith,
Stop insulting the Monkeys!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Ever notice Greg Swandive doesn't mention the declining conditions on his blog?

Anonymous said...

Lereah must have written the training manual for Yun

OC Mike said...

Home prices will fall even further than NAR originally stated? That is an interesting way to spin:

Prices will fall further than the gains we originally predicted.

Or..


Shit...we were flat wrong. Prices will fall, not rise.

Anonymous said...

Why do you even pay attention to what the NAR says? They lie. They always lie. End of story.

g said...

"Home sales will probably fluctuate in a narrow range in the short run, but gradually trend upward with improving activity by the end of the year," said Lawrence Yun, the group's senior economist.

HAHAHAHAHA.

Just phenomenal. They keep trying to lie.

sofa king we tall did said...

Theyre so off so often they might as well overshoot how negative their forecast is on purpose just so they can revise it back up in the future. Constantly revising downward just makes them look retarded.

Anonymous said...

By the time they are done, they will have lost all credibility.

p.s. I love that "sofa King we Tah-Tid" joke.

Benjamin Franklin said...

There's an old saying: "never ask a barber if you need a haircut, and never ask a real estate if now is a good time to buy!" In other words, never ask anyone who's livelihood depends on providing services if their services are needed.

(PS apologies to barbers for lumping them into the same category as agents: I have more respect for a good barber!)

So let's think of it this way: when a professional sales organization like the NAR finally admits there's a problem, then you can be damn sure there's REALLY a problem!

There comes a time when further lying only erodes their already over-extended credibility!

Anonymous said...

10 year bond rate skyrocketing up near 5% now big move past few weeks

Higher mortgage rates on way

Anonymous said...

anyone check housingwatch today? all the data is messed up, las vegas down 23%, phoenix down 35%
for a second i thought I had traveled into the future and it was 2009 lol

Anonymous said...

Homedebtors, look at your Net Worth (if you have any at this point) going down and down...and down...and down...becoming negative...negative...negative...

I tell you what, why don't you guys go out there and lease a brand new BMW or huge gas guzzler SUV just to cheer up...and to help the Bush economy?

Anonymous said...

ok so higher rates under way and lower prices under way. Don't they just cancel each other out?

I mean if I save 10 or 20% on the price of a home by waiting but have to pay 10 or 20% more a month due to higher rates on that lower price, what am I gaining exactly?

Anonymous said...

I expect a revised number every month.

Anonymous said...

FLASH: NAR says that housing situation is SNAFU, but could be FUBAR by the end of 2007.

Anonymous said...

Hey Keith, post a graph now showing the volume of ARM toxic loans with rates reseting this year. It's mind blogging.

Anonymous said...

Ok, I am not an apologist for NAR and believe that DL has done irrepairable harm to NAR and the industry. However, Mr. Yun's failures are one of negligence in econometric modeling. This guy is a gear head. He was never a "spokesperson" (anyone ever hear him? He's lousy). His data was so often taken out of context by DL that he began to be the butt of jokes amongst economists. Now he finds himself trying to regain the lost credibility that was his and NAR's. It is called moral hazard. On the one hand are his true beliefs that the road ahead for real estate is rough, and on the other are his task masters that probably gave him a big fat raise after DL left. IMOHO we will see more downward revisions as Mr. Yun tries to soften the blow to his and NAR's credibility. Good luck with that.

Anonymous said...

Anon wrote:

"I mean if I save 10 or 20% on the price of a home by waiting but have to pay 10 or 20% more a month due to higher rates on that lower price, what am I gaining exactly?"

A refinancing opertunity. Everyone needs to get out of the how-much-a-month pricing mentality, hell that's just renting!

Anonymous said...

well it is like jim cramer of cramerica says.....when the truth gets in the way, you just create a new truth to take its place.......no problem here.........nothing going here folks......just keep moving please.......

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Anon wrote:

"I mean if I save 10 or 20% on the price of a home by waiting but have to pay 10 or 20% more a month due to higher rates on that lower price, what am I gaining exactly?"

A refinancing opertunity. Everyone needs to get out of the how-much-a-month pricing mentality, hell that's just renting!

June 06, 2007 9:59 PM

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that response makes absolutely zero sense. Start over, type slowly his time and maybe we'll know what he fuck you're talking about.

Anonymous said...

Anon 8:50-

sigh....I'm not wishing to insult or offend... I just wish that this country had done a better job with math education as far as interest rates and loans and principle go......

If you buy a home at a lower PRICE, the odds that you can pay it off and maintain equity are much greater than if you buy at a higher price.

If interest rates are VERY high when you buy, the price will be lower *and* you can refi as rates go down.

By very high, I mean @15%, not 8%.

You need to look at the PRICE of the thing, not the monthly payment. The PRICE is what you are ultimately responsible for.

The NAR and lenders did a knockdown bangup job of confusing buyers about financing major life purchases in the past decade. It's a shame.

I'd rather buy a home for 250K than 750K, interest rates be damned. Get a loan with no prepayment penalties and buy a house that you can pay off completely in under 10 years.

Focus on price, not monthly payment.

Anonymous said...

Keith, since we no longer have TCDL, can we now have SILY.

Super Incompetent Lawrence Yun.

Cause his commitents are just as SILLY.

Anonymous said...

I hate to sound pessimistic here but aren't we already below the NARS new estimates. I mean we are definetely on pace for much lower than 6 million existing home sales Also prices here in Colorado Springs have already dropped easy 5-10%. I mean this is scary when the experts are wrong.

I wonder if the the Fed and Bush are just as clueless about whats going on as the NAR??

Just kidding god these people must think we are all as dumb as W. The only one in the housing industry I trust is DR Hortons CEO at least he calls it like it is. Anybody here a sucking sound?

Sequoia512

Anonymous said...

The NAR will miss David and wished they had paid him more, he was very good at what he did.

Anonymous said...

You need to look at the PRICE of the thing, not the monthly payment. The PRICE is what you are ultimately responsible for.

If you buy a home at a lower PRICE, the odds that you can pay it off and maintain equity are much greater than if you buy at a higher price.

If interest rates are VERY high when you buy, the price will be lower *and* you can refi as rates go down.

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Dude you have no idea what you are talking about. Absolutely clueless.

Of course interest rates matter as much as price, even more so when you're talking about 30 year loans.

Example 1: $500K loan at 6%
Monthly: $2997
Total interest paid: ***$579,190***

Example 2: $350K loan at 9%
Monthly: $2816
Total Interest: ***$663,000***

Today you can get a loan at 6%. In a year or two when that $500K home is selling for $350K interest rates may very well be at 9%. The way inflation is running it a very real possibility.

And as for refinanciang, jeezuz you sound like a mortgage lender saying don't worry about the ARM reseting you can always refinance. What kind of planning is that? What if rates stay at 9% for the next 5 years or go up to 10% or even higher? It wasn't that long ago that 10%+ was the norm for mortgages.

Get a clue then try again.

Anonymous said...

"Today you can get a loan at 6%. In a year or two when that $500K home is selling for $350K interest rates may very well be at 9%. The way inflation is running it a very real possibility. "


Can one just buy down the interest rate? Does this make sense?

Anonymous said...

I'd rather have the 2nd loan. As the years go on and you make more, you can easily overpay the mortgage and eat away at the fact that you are at 9%. Or, simply buy down the interest up front...it saves you money in the long run.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
"Today you can get a loan at 6%. In a year or two when that $500K home is selling for $350K interest rates may very well be at 9%. The way inflation is running it a very real possibility. "


Can one just buy down the interest rate? Does this make sense?

June 07, 2007 3:56 PM
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Yes, in fact old school housing market conditions sellers routinely paid down theinterest rate for the buyer.