May 18, 2007

I have no idea how the realtortrolls, permabulls and NAR can spin their way out of this one: Unsold Home Inventory Soars as Housing Bubble Deflates

Demand is tanking (people know homes will be cheaper tomorrow)


Supply is exploding (as homedebtor panic sets in).

The available pool of homedebtors is shrinking (thank you subprime wipeout)

It's significantly cheaper to rent than buy today (it's always about the P/E)

Jobs are going away (thank you housing crash vicious circle)

Consumer confidence is plunging (housing crash, oil prices, jobs, iraq)

There should be so surprises to HP'ers. Everything is going exactly as it should. Exactly as it always does post-mania, post-bubble, post-Ponzi Scheme. It was all in the book. Now what will we do with all these damn houses?

Housing glut: From bad to worse - Some markets have seen a tripling of property listings since the housing market has cooled.

CNNMoney.com -- The number of homes for sale in major markets ballooned in April, according to a new industry report, adding further evidence that the U.S. housing slump is still trying to find a bottom.

In April, there were 743,367 existing house and condo properties listed for sale in the 18 major metro areas tracked by ZipRealty, a California-based real estate broker.

That was up 33 percent from a year earlier and 7.2 percent higher than in March.

Some of the markets ZipRealty covers suffered far bigger inventory expansions than the total jump. Los Angeles reported a 39.7 percent leap since April of 2006, Miami climbed 53.9 percent and Seattle soared 63.2 percent.

The year-over-year stats only tell part of the story. Many of the areas covered had already experienced a significant sales slowdown and an expansion of the number of homes for sale well before April 2006.

The once remarkably hot Las Vegas metro market, for example, now has more than double the number of homes on the market - 26,243 compared with 13,238 - than it did in September 2005, when the local housing market was near its peak.

In Los Angeles, inventory has more than tripled since July 2005, as it has in Miami since October 2005. In Phoenix, there were 50,062 homes for sale during April, compared with 11,656 in July 2005, for more than a threefold jump.

45 comments:

Anonymous said...

Don't underestimate the ignorance of the masses and the REIC spin machine, which counts on the ignorance of the masses for its success!!

Stephen said...

How is 26,243 more than twice 13,238? (Not to understate the magnitude of this increase.)

anonymous wimp said...

Yet the worldwide stock market party continues unabated.
Either some big money is not paying attention, or perhaps the housing bubble case is overstated.
It's one or the other.

Anonymous said...

The author must have failed basic math, since they also report that 50,062 is a more than threefold jump compared with 11,656 when it's clearly more than a fourfold jump. Not that they were technically wrong, but they certainly missed the mark. Either way, this exploding home inventory is certainly a problem. I'm seeing a LOT of new for sale signs in my town.

Anonymous said...

Stocks up again today and houses are still expensive..
Some Crash!

DOPES!!!!

Anonymous said...

this will not impact the greater economy!!!!

New-car sales drop 7% in California
From Times Staff and Wire Reports
May 18, 2007

New-vehicle sales fell by 7% in California during the first quarter as the state's weakening housing market crimped consumer spending, the California Motor Car Dealers Assn. reported.

The fact that new-vehicle registrations in California suffered a much bigger drop than the national decline of 1.2% indicates how hard the state has been hit by the housing crunch, economists said. High gas prices and troubles in the sub-prime lending industry also are hurting sales.

Despite the drop in new-vehicle registrations, Toyota Motor Corp. increased its industry leading market share in California by two percentage points to 24%. Among vehicle segments, compact SUVs such as the Honda CRV and entry-level cars such as the Toyota Yaris showed the biggest gains. Full- and mid-sized SUVs recorded the biggest drops.

devestment said...

Last night I spoke with friends who own a B&B four hours out of Seattle, they claim high gas is impacting tourism.

I have also noticed the red hot vacation home market is a bit cool. Imagine that.....

I personally am not driving so much to my favorite country spots. Heck, the gas alone is $100 in an economy car!!!!

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Stocks up again today and houses are still expensive..
Some Crash!

DOPES!!!!

May 18, 2007 2:05 PM
-------------
Please add to the :
"Daily Affirmations With Stuart Smalley."
"That's just stinkin' thinkin!"
"Denial ain't just a river in Egypt!"
"I'm good enough, I'm smart enough, and doggone it, people like me."
"I am a worthy human being."
"...and that's...okay."

Anonymous said...

You people must make $8 an hour if gas is keeping you from driving to the country. Well you do rent so it's not really all that surprising.

Mort said...

Burn baby burn!

Veronica Lodge said...

I have no idea how the realtortrolls, permabulls and NAR can spin their way out of this one: Unsold Home Inventory Soars!

Here's a special spin the National Ass. of Realtwhores can use:

Housing prices continue to go UP! Buy now, before you get priced out of the market!

V.L.

Anonymous said...

"Now what will we do with all these damn houses?"

Illegals anyone?

Dean said...

You people must make $8 an hour if gas is keeping you from driving to the country.

No, we just budget ourselves and keep careful track of our expenses. Unlike those who buy overpriced real estate.

Anonymous said...

Dean said...
You people must make $8 an hour if gas is keeping you from driving to the country.

No, we just budget ourselves and keep careful track of our expenses. Unlike those who buy overpriced real estate.
---------------------------

No you are just cheap and would rather save $10 than enjoy a day in the country. Nothing like a fine summer's day stuck in a city apartment, OH BOY you sure are living the dream!!

westwest888 said...

Gas prices have never stopped me from driving anywhere I pleased (or flying and paying a surcharge). There's simply so much disposable income at the hands of the American consumer that we're price insensitive when it comes to gas. There are 100 other things (like a $20 pizza at 1:00AM) that we'd cut out of our budgets to maintain the love affair with our cars.

Anonymous said...

If anyone covers the market in the Bay Area -- the median prices have actually risen -- all due to skewed data. Seemingly, high end houses are still selling (can we say Google?), so pulling up the median price of homes - which is now $880k in San Mateo!!!!

(Does that mean that Zillow will also raise all the other property values in the bay area?). All I see are property for sale signs, so I suspect the tumble is going to be something else, when it finally begins.

Lost Cause said...

You people must make $8 an hour if gas is keeping you from driving to the country.


I just object to paying three times the decent price of anything. I don't care if it is just a newspaper. I don't like being ripped off.

Anonymous said...

when it finally begins.

And when will that be again? You loons have been predicting it to start for 2 years.

jim in phoenix said...

Nothing unusual about the Phoenix market. This is just a normal correction from the super hot market of a couple of years of ago. Sales are chugging along at a more normal pace. Homes are still selling if they are priced right. Plenty people keep moving here so I'm not sure what economic calamity you see for my hometown but I'm not seeing it.

Bitter Renter said...

The price of gas has never stopped me from driving either but I do get a kick out of the smartasses who chide others who complain about expenses like gasoline. The smartasses like to call others who are frugal and live within their means "losers". That must be why, in my life's experience, the people I see going bellyup bankrupt are often those semmingly affluent people who lived beyond their means and then stuck the rest of us with the bills when they stumbled.

Knew a guy who sold a biz for 2 million and then proceeded to live like he was a billionaire. 5 years later he's filing for bankruptcy to shift the burden of his bills to society. Meanwhile, his kids went to the finest schools and colleges, the family ski trips to the Alps, the over-the-top McMansion, the 5 car garage, each kid getting a different fabulous car. They got to keep all except the house.

But he sure did impress us all with his ostentation and pretentious lifestyle.

I'd bring back debtor's prison for people like that.

Anonymous said...

As of right now he is the only candidate from either side to say this.

Boston, MA - Governor Mitt Romney issued the following statement on today's U.S. Senate agreement on immigration reform:

"I strongly oppose today's bill going through the Senate. It is the wrong approach. Any legislation that allows illegal immigrants to stay in the country indefinitely, as the new 'Z-Visa' does, is a form of amnesty. That is unfair to the millions of people who have applied to legally immigrate to the U.S."

Anonymous said...

Susan says:

"Now is a great time to buy, selection has never been better!"

Mort said...

They will just give free houses to illegals, mark my words.

Anonymous said...

There are 100 other things (like a $20 pizza at 1:00AM) that we'd cut out of our budgets to maintain the love affair with our cars.

I don't have a love affair with my car. I simply don't want to walk 45 minutes to a bus stop, wait 30 minutes for the bus then ride the bus sitting next to a bum who hasn't bathed in 5 days. I'd much prefer driving 10 minutes and getting to the same destination.

Anonymous said...

"If anyone covers the market in the Bay Area -- the median prices have actually risen -- all due to skewed data. Seemingly, high end houses are still selling (can we say Google?), so pulling up the median price of homes - which is now $880k in San Mateo!!!!"

Exactly! Same thing in the nice parts of LA. Regular houses are NOT selling -- in my neighborhood, there are more signs every week and most of the ones for sale last year are still for sale today -- but $2-million-plus estates in the hills and near the ocean are still selling, albeit at a much slower pace. There is a LOT of money in LA, SF, NY, etc., but it's being held by a tiny fraction of the population. So nothing is selling in my perfectly nice but not luxury gated 'hood, while things are still selling in the Mansion class. Totally skewing the numbers. I wish someone could break down the under-$1 million sales.

Anonymous said...

The real estate people will spin the excess inventory of housing like this .

"Don't you have such a wide array of choice in this buyers market "

"We are different we have location ,other places are having problems ."

"We have reached the bottom , buy now before the prices go up and we run out of land/houses ?

" The weather was bad so houses weren't selling ."

"Would you buy the house if I could get you 100 thousand back out of the deal"

"You don't have to put any money down and you don't have to qualify and your teaser rate is low , don't you think ? "

"Buy now before you really have to qualify for a loan,the gigs up with the lenders ."

Last final sale tatics ...

"If you buy one house I will get you the second one free ".

"Oh it's OK to buy if your going long term and your going to make it a home "

Anonymous said...

"There are 100 other things (like a $20 pizza at 1:00AM) that we'd cut out of our budgets to maintain the love affair with our cars."

Yeah... scary thing is though, what happens to the people that manufacture and provide the services of those 100 plus things? What happens when demand for their jobs crashes? Where do they get the money for their gas or their 100+ things?

Anonymous said...

Median cannot rise because of skewed google money. Maybe average can, but not median.

Say 100 sales occured with a median of $750,000. That means 50 are above $750K and 50 are below. If the 50 above are all $751K or they are all $7.5M it doesn't matter, the median is still $750K.

And you can't just dismiss Google money. That is real money that is used for real estate and there is much more of it to come as more and more employees are vesting all those millions of dollars.

I'm not saying a tumble will not happen but don't be so sure of it.

Anonymous said...

what do you know, another day another dow record. yup everything is falling apart, better run for the hills

keith said...

When it's an exploding inventory thread, I like kudzu and tribbles for the picture

I look at the sea of unwanted, unnecessary homes that go on for miles and miles in far west phoenix just like I remember kudzu on the highways of Alabama...

And that tribbles episode was the best, not that I was a trekkie, but it was great

What will we do with all the homes? What will we do?

Paul E. Math said...

Anon 8:34 PM, the median can rise due to skewed sales. Here's an example:

Imagine the median was once $1M, with 100 sales below $1M and 100 sales above $1M for a total of 200 sales. Draw a bell curve with an even distribution where the horizontal axis is price and the vertical axis is the number of sales. Put a tick at the top of the curve and label that $1M, the median.

Now suppose that sales have greatly declined in the under $1M bracket so you only have 50 sales below $1M and you still have 100 sales above $1M. You have total sales of 150 units.

Half the total volume is 75 units. We know that only 50 of those 75 units were under $1M, therefore 25 of them were above $1M.

Your median home price MUST be above $1M.

This is how the median sales price is skewed by lower sales in the lower priced bracket.

Anonymous said...

What will we do with all the homes? What will we do?
_____
Uh...ummm...invite more illegals across the border and give 'em 90-year interest only loans and pay 'em slave labor wages so they'll have to work until three generations have died trying to pay for the houses?

Anonymous said...

Mort said...
They will just give free houses to illegals, mark my words.

=====
Cute concept, but see, banks don't operate that way. They never have, they never will.

On the other hand, our government is easily stupid enough to spend massive created-from-thin-air money to create some kind of idiot welfare program for illegals that will pay the banks.

It would make perfect sense to make sure illegals have roofs over their heads when tax-paying citizens can't retire or get health care, doesn't it?

Anonymous said...

My observations at ground zero in Phx: I see pretty decent houses in GREAT locations in attractive neighborhoods that are NOT selling, even though the prices have been lowered many times.

Anonymous said...

Only in HP land would more $1M homes selling be seen as a sign of a crashing market. congrats Paul Math you've become as loonie as AL-QWEEFER

Anonymous said...

totaly slanderous libelous rumor that all refuse to accept???? a drunken captian kirk, did in his wife>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

Anonymous said...

I would eat gene spliced mass reproducing lobsters
(tribbles), cause they would eat gene spliced mass reproducing lobsters

Shakster said...

Kieth,if you thought like a control freak,manipulative,low moral standard type who sleeps well at night after cornering some prey,then you would know how they do it,and they do it naturally time after time.
Never fear the shark,just be aware,and think for yourself.

SoapBox Shak said...

I kinda of liken it to lying to your children,sometimes you should let them figure it out for themselves(Ommission)which is necessary,or as in the case of the USA we have spinmiesters ,and parents in a degree of denial that their lies are killing their children ,and grand children.You know ,like "onward christian soldier" fight for the prince of peace in Iraq.We die ,our soldiers die,and Iraqi children get phosphates in their lungs ,and suffer the most horrifying torture ever devised.But we can spin that into something to make it all better right?Like That's just the way war is,or they had little kiddy bombs stapled to their butts,or some other horseshit that Most Americns will swallow without question.Then the rapture never happens,christ is a theif in the night,and catholics hand down the tradition of having babies to be used by governments to kill other cultish groups.Spin is the oldest art next to lot lizards.Heaven for us ,hell for them right?,and we repeat it for the thousandth time.We are just reaping what we sew.Yes we are hosed,and it ain't Jebus,or the Jimbobs Witnesses,or the Pope,or some other fictional,or dead guy's doing.The Jesus's,and Popes couldn't carry my nuts ,let alone be anymore than just cartoon characters.David L,and George B need to be put in their proper places in order to have a healthy society.That place is beneath a common mans feet.We are responsible for the ripoff,not them,we agreed.We live for this crap.

Anonymous said...

Now what will we do with all these damn house

==========
Grow weed in them

borkafatty said...

And when will that be again? You loons have been predicting it to start for 2 years.

-----------

What and it hasn't? Wait till Sept, and November thats when the panic of the new ARM resets really kicks in and full steam ahead.

Look I admire your optimism, but i hate to have to tell you this...But we have seen nothing yet. We have only been in 07 for 5 months, try and apply of a sub-prime loan, or any loan for that matter. My sister has been trying to refi her nightmare.....Yes Nightmare...and they are hanging up the phone...and she is of good credit, and equity...the faucet is dripping and the guy is turning he ball valve shut, no matter what the fed says.

Anonymous said...

http://boomerang.osgcorp.com/osg-hardtack/

Paul E. Math said...

Anon 10:26 PM, the $1M was used as an 'example'. You should look up that word. Then think about it for awhile. Then look it up again and stare at it for a bit. Then call up a smart person, no, not your realtor, someone else. Get that person to explain it to you. Then sleep on it. Then call them up again and ask them to explain it to you again. Then commit suicide because you realize you're never going to get it.

Sorry, kinda got carried away there. But it was fun. Seriously, I used $1M as a round number because I thought it would be easier to understand that way. But I guess I was wrong. My apologies. Now is a perfect time to buy or sell a home.

Anonymous said...

"And you can't just dismiss Google money. That is real money that is used for real estate and there is much more of it to come as more and more employees are vesting all those millions of dollars.
"

Yeah, and they(google money) are PAYING CASH for those houses! Not taking out toxic loans like most of the sheep (who cant really afford it) are getting into....

Andrew Hac said...

Quote:
###There are 100 other things (like a $20 pizza at 1:00AM) that we'd cut out of our budgets to maintain the love affair with our cars###

I don't spend $20 dollars on a pizza at 1:00 A.M, you DORK ! Talk about damn ass...