April 29, 2007

Why do desperate homedebtors think they get to set the price?

"I'm not gonna sell for a penny below what I owe"


"There's no way I'm gonna take a loss"

"I deserve what my neighbor got last year"

"I'm gonna find a realtor who can get me what my place should go for"

Uh, no, you're not. The market sets the price, not the homedebtor, and trust us, that market price is WAY below what it was last year or the year before.

It's time for the Great Housing Blue Light Special.

Cleanup on aisle three.

41 comments:

Anonymous said...

Part of the ethos of the era. Feel good narcissism. If they "need" or "want" something to be, then it will be, because otherwise that wouldn't be fair.

It's their constitutional right to make huge money doing nothing.

Joe Logic said...

I've seen this line spouted by homedebtors trolls in denial on this blog several times in the last month or so:

"I know if I put my house on the market today I could still get at least $___"

I've also seen the standard ego-centric denial, like "yeah house prices are falling, but my house is *different*".

Man it's getting really desperate out there.

devestment said...

Why would I pay more than a house is worth to me?

You see I have the funds so I make the market.

All you have is an asset with high maintenance costs anchoring you to a piece of dirt where everyone can find you. An asset inflated by loose lending and the devil may care digital creation of fiat currency.

Look in the mirror at the modern face of slavery.

I'll look in the mirror at the historic human trait of eat or be eaten.

Frank said...

What's funny are the desperate homedebtors in places like Scottsdale who insist that average prices have not gone down. Well, they're talking about average asking prices on a bunch of surplus inventory that nobody is buying!

It's the SALE prices on actual SALES that count, not what some idiot who is up to his eyeballs in debt *needs* to get for his house to avoid bankruptcy.

In my neighborhood in Newport Beach it's easy to say the average price is $1.2M based on what the homedebtors are asking, but if you look at actual sales the real number is around $800k.

And, of course, most of the homedebtors I know back in Scottsdale actually believe their house will triple in value over the next 1-2 years. They need to WAKE UP.

www.scottsdale-sucks.com

Mr. Smith said...

The big cycle is slowly rolling over from greed to fear. Soon there will be only 2 options-

1.Stressfully paying the mortgage and holding on for dear life to a depreciated RE value as the housing market does the deep dive. You will have to pray daily that the drop will be arrested before a waterfall decline occurs. After the dropping market stabilizes, you will watch with little optimism for signs of a recovery and the long slow march back to the point where your RE is back to it's original purchase price. And hope that peak oil does not torpedo the whole deal.

2. Sell now and take your lumps so that you will not take the long slow ride down the backside of the housing curve.

As fear takes over, RE owners may be competing to sell their homes NOW at whatever the price in order to avoid an even lower price next month. And the month after that. And the month and year after that.

Remember, RE markets take 4-5+ years to turn around. It will be a long slog for those trying to hold on to over-valued RE with the hope of returning to solvency.

Walt said...

I think sellers are going to hold out pretty long. Most are naive investors and don't understand the concept of, "chasing down a falling price".

Even when they do throw in the towel, it will be too little too late and they'll keep whining all the way to the bottom, lowering their price just a little too little to sell, eventually ending up paying an $800,000 mortgage on a $200,000 dollar house (Southern California estimate). You laugh at my numbers, but, that's the exact reason I'll be laughing my ass off when it actually happens.

Anonymous said...

This should piss a lot of people off...

"
I don’t know if anyone has heard of Ted Lui, and what he’s proposing, but I thought I’d post what I found on another board.

“TED LUI (CA assemblyman) and others on the California banking and finance committee passed a proposal Monday to use money from the Affordable Housing Bond to bail out homeowners who were “victims” of “predatory” financing and can’t make their mortgage payments. CALL Ted Lui’s office, talk to Tiffany or Mark, 916-319-2053, and call every assemblyman on the appropriations committee (that’s where it goes to a vote next), and call your local state assemblyman, tell them you don’t want your hard-earned tax dollars going to bail out buyers who overpaid and didn’t read their loan documents, tell them the affordable housing bond money was to be used for affordable housing not for bailouts, call or don’t complain when it happens!”

Here’s a response that one poster received after calling Mark…

“I gave Mark every completely rational argument I could give, not screaming or yelling, just speaking in a controlled, professional voice, against this bailout idea…all he could counter was “that’s your opinion”, “I’m sorry you feel that way”, “we’ll just have to agree to disagree so there’s no point discussing this”, and he just kept going on and on about how many people were “victims” of “predatory” lending and that was what this was trying to correct. No explanation as to how such lending was predatory, why the ADULTS who signed the loan documents were not responsible for their actions, why it is my problem as a taxpayer, nor why we should reward those alleged predators by making payments that didn’t pencil for the borrowers to begin with. I hope every one on this board calls him and every other assemblyman you have time to harrass, I mean contact.”

Sounds like a prick, but I’m going to call him tomorrow. Might not help, but it certainly won’t hurt to give this idiot a call.

"

Anonymous said...

Greed based on ignorance!

Anonymous said...

Ignorance based on greed!

Anonymous said...

Because The dumbing down of America is alive and well!

burn baby burn said...

I would like to add on to what Joe logic said. All the houses I look at their zillow est is lower than the asking price. Also all the comparable were sold in November and December 2006. I went to an open house today (no one was there) and the Fake Estate Agent (FEA) was trying to talk to me when I told her the price was $30 to $40 per square foot over priced; she was highly offended. I told her good luck and showed myself to the door. FYI no warm cookies so I was not very serious anyway; when will the fools learn I WANT MY COOKIE? This is a very nice house in a very nice neighborhood on the market for 5 weeks and second open house and no price reduction (I drive by it every day). It is going to be a long hot summer and this is the time when everybody goes on vacation not buy a house.

kitchenstove said...

They'll just either have to sell it for way below what they want, or rent the thing out and wait 200 years to get the price they want.

Anonymous said...

They think that way because Greg Swann is advising them!

SeattleMoose said...

My favorite...."Well I'm not going to give it away"

Adam said...

Anyone can set whatever asking price they want, but that doesn't mean anyone will actually PAY it.

On the other hand, setting an unrealistic asking price is sort of like the "Hail Mary" pass in football, where the team is so far behind that there's little to lose by throwing the ball and praying. The seller may be hoping SOME FOOL will think the house must be worth that much, or is leaving some room to back down in price. Maybe worth it, maybe not.

I think not. Any buyer who's 1/2-way aware of 2007 market conditions won't want to hassle with a delusional seller who's clearly living in 2005: it's too much work to explain to them what happens when a market cools. It's too painful to watch them squirm: not my problem. Easier to pass them by.

And unfortunately for delusional sellers, the credit tightening has precluded many of the "greater fools" from entering the market to blow $$$ that's not even theirs (but the lenders) on an over-valued and depreciating asset.

The problem is, the longer they hold onto a depreciating asset, the more and more they'll hemorrhage.... Heck, I'm not interested in buying a home in a time when assets are losing value....

Anonymous said...

Woo Hoo!!!

I'm a California home owner with a mortgage and a falling price asset (I bought at the bottom so I'm not worried).

If California starts giving out free money, oh boy am I going to get some too! I'll quit my job and then plead poverty and Barbara Boxer will pay me to be lazy and stupid. This is a glorious state I tell you.

Anonymous said...

I'm going to buy at the bottom and personally supervise the "booting of the squatter to the street" by the sheriff.

I'm disgusted with the prices around here because they are preventing me from "moving up". I can afford almost any house but I'm not going to buy an asset that's going to lose half its value in the next few years so I'm stuck.

Lisa said...

It's been such a strong seller's market the last few years, I think it's going to be a while before the FB's really accept that the party is over. I hear people talk about their "wishing prices" as if anything less is "giving the house away."

Just wait for the foreclosures to add stress to the market. Maybe by then sellers will realize it is NOT the buyer's job to make them financially whole or happy or anything else.

the real peyton manning said...

Desperate sellers think they can set their price because they don't understand the free market. Even a caveman can figure that out.

Anonymous said...

Even a caveman can figure that out.

Hahahaha one of those Gieco comercials with the cavemen might be just the trick to teach the stupid home debtors that they are f**cked when it comes to pricing! That way they might pay attention!

Bitter Renter said...

The people here in the Northwest think they're going to remain unscathed by the downturn.

It's that egocentric Portland/Seattle thing.

Ben Franklin said...

What I love is when the realtors try to say not to insult the seller with a so-called "low-ball offer", as if it would be rude to threaten the seller's fragile ego by challenging their 2005-based price expectations.

So why are sellers not concerned with not insulting an informed buyer with unrealistic prices, which are elevated primarily based on the false expectation of future appreciation? We've shown that claim ("real estate only goes UP"), to be pure BS, and we're seeing at least a 10% appreciation in most markets in the next year.

So WHY exactly are they asking people to pay a price derived on 2001-2006 results, now in 2007?

Haven't the sellers heard the old mantra, "past performance is no guarantee of future returns"? Criminy, they're trying to see a speculative investment like a lottery ticket AFTER the lottery was held, and we've found the ticket is a LOSER of an investment at this point. Worse, buying right now for most of us is a guaranteed bleeding investment in short-term (next 5-10 years).

I guess in their minds, the old chestnut "real estate always goes UP" outweighs the even more universal rule of finance that "what goes up, must go down".

Screw em': I won't even waste time trying to teach the fiscally uneducated masses who are asking unrealistic prices what kind of market we're now in.

Anonymous said...

Anon 7:13 29th
“TED LUI (CA assemblyman) and others on the California banking and finance committee passed a proposal Monday to use money from the Affordable Housing Bond to bail out homeowners who were “victims” of “predatory” financing and can’t make their mortgage payments."

The line I heard last week for the first time was:

Privatize Profits, Socialize Risk

It seems that Mr. Lui heard (and adopted) that philosophy long ago!
(Maybe he needs a 'life coach?')

Anonymous said...

Desperate sellers think they can set their price because they don't understand the free market. Even a caveman can figure that out.
++++
Exactly what I was going to say.

And I'm a caveman.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Greed based on ignorance!

April 29, 2007 7:48 PM


Anonymous said...
Ignorance based on greed!

April 29, 2007 7:48 PM


Two great tastes that taste good together!

Veritas Faust said...

Sorry I have been gone for a while... I was having Password issues...long story anyway:

My wife and I are relocating to Portland, OR and looking at rentals. the FB's are asking for a lot. I hope they get it. However chances are they will miss the high season which is summer and find they have no tenant through the winter.

Sucks for them. I am in negotiations with a woman who wants to rent a 3/2 new construction for 1K a month. BUT wants me to make it available to RE agents to show.

Naturally I presume she is hopeful it will sell soon and thus she won't commit to a lease of any term. Statistically she will be lucky to get a showing a week. So I have to weigh getting a nice place for under market with the inconvenience of playing tour guide every few days against the hassle of trying to make a wise selection from 3300 miles away on a 1 year lease.

I figure we will take the deal and blow out as soon as we can better deal her, which I presume will be soon after arriving. Of course we may get lucky and find a diamond in the rough.

Frank said...

TED LUI (CA assemblyman) and others on the California banking and finance committee passed a proposal Monday to use money from the Affordable Housing Bond to bail out homeowners who were “victims” of “predatory” financing and can’t make their mortgage payments.

How about this:

When desperate homedebtors apply for the bailout money, they are required to provide proof that they had a licensed attorney review the contracts before they signed them.

If they didn't do that, the state turns them down and mails a letter saying, "If you didn't have an attorney explain the contract to you before you signed it, it's your fault. If you couldn't afford to have an attorney review your mortgage contract, you had no business buying a house in the first place."

Wishful thinking, I know.

I can't wait to see what kind of bailout nonsense Arizona will propose now that the state government has been hijacked by handout-loving liberals.

Anonymous said...

Despite your wishes, sales volume in my area (south Scottsdale) is double this time last year. Prices flat to slightly up.

Anonymous said...

"My wife and I are relocating to Portland, OR and looking at rentals. the FB's are asking for a lot. I hope they get it."

What a dork!!!

Lars said...

"But my house is worth more than that" You hear this one a lot, and it is worth more only in your mind if buyers think a lower figure.

michael said...

guy i work with bought a condo in arlington va last year for 440k. he has it on the market now for 535k. he got an offer for 499k and turned it down.

that guy that made that offer probably doesnt even realize that he is on of the luckiest guys on the planet.

Anonymous said...

The irony is that all the people that were saying "Its different this time" were correct. This time its going to be much worse due to the massive amount of fraud and sub-prime/Alt-A negligent lending. It will be a burst RE bubble like no other due to the greater degree of asset price inflation combined with the massive tsunami of foreclosures, the significantly higher level of investor speculation and they huge RE inventory overhang in the form of vacant homes & unsold new inventory. This time prices will be "less sticky" and the shock will be much quicker & deeper. I think Denver is just the harbinger/canary in the mine as to what the aftermath will look like. Vegas, Phoenix, the west coast & FL are next. The Exburbs in the NE are getting hit now & after the psychology of a burst bubble mania ripples in then it will hit the rest of the NE. The MW is already suffering due to old school RE market collapse (job loss & the loss of the commercial base). Good luck.

jim said...

So will anybody pay the face value (or any amount) for the lottery ticket I purchased yesterday?

In case you are wondering, no, I didn't win.

Kurly said...

Lieu's email is:

Assemblymember.Lieu@assembly.ca.gov

Anonymous said...

bailout by building affordable housing, or even very very affordable housing and take the averages and time factor to do the work,

Frank said...

Despite your wishes, sales volume in my area (south Scottsdale) is double this time last year.

That's funny, those Camelview Optima condos that investors snatched up for a million dollars each are now renting for $2,000/month.

I moved out of south Scottsdale specifically because it has one of the highest crime rates in all of Arizona and after watching my neighbors' houses get burglarized one after another, it was time for me to go.

This was only about 2 years ago and it was still really cheap down there, so I'd imagine it's the only area that's selling because people can't afford anything else. And those loans that BofA is handing out to illegals will definitely help south Scottsdale houses to continue selling.

www.scottsdale-sucks.com

PS: If you want anyone to believe your comments, stop posting as anonymous and show yourself.

Anonymous said...

No bail out! Call your lawmakers and complain about it. Tell them that you are being hit twice by using your tax to keep properties artificially high.

I do have to differ from some of the other opinions here. I own a home, and I expect to live here forever. I don't care if its price go up or down (actually, if it goes down, I'll probably pay less taxes). I rely on stocks for appreciation, not my home.

People forget that a market consists of buyers and sellers. If they can't agree on a price, then there's no sale. Someone will have to offer me double my current home value to even make me consider moving. It's not the buyers who have all the power.

Anonymous said...

I got 98% of my asking price in Phoenix in March in this market.

Lucky?

Naa... I just had the right home for sale for the right buyer.

Prices in Phoenix are going up again.

Anonymous said...

Part of the ethos of the era. Feel good narcissism. If they "need" or "want" something to be, then it will be, because otherwise that wouldn't be fair.

In Scientology, it's called "Postulating": "IF I POSTULATE THAT *X* IS SO, THEN IT IS SO!"

Adam "Slow Hand" Smith said...

Ananymous said:

People forget that a market consists of buyers and sellers. If they can't agree on a price, then there's no sale. Someone will have to offer me double my current home value to even make me consider moving. It's not the buyers who have all the power.

If you're not selling, and have no interest in selling, then you're not a participant, since your home is not on the market.

That's fine, as you're a "buy and hold" homeowner who's bought a HOUSE, not an investment asset. It's NOT people like you who've screwed up the market, and no one is blaming you. You're not a "desparate homedebtor", which is what Keith is talking about.

You're actually someone who bought your home to actually live in it (*gasp!*), and you didn't assume a 'toxic' ARM or I/O loan that is essentially gambling on continued price appreciation in order to make those mortgage payments. That is whom he's referring to.

You know that your home is not also a retirement plan that'll deliver you to the land of milk and honey in 20 years! Novel concept there, huh?

HOWEVER, I'm glad you as a traditional homeowner realizes that any government bail-out of these unqualified buyers will NOT protect YOUR over-inflated equity, as it WON'T. I'm glad you see that government attempts to "save" markets are almost guaranteed to back-fire, getting us ALL in a deeper mire, as we ALL pay for it in the form of MORE national debt that is driving our economy into the dumpster!! That costs EVERYONE, and the idea of helping the fiscally irresponsible to stay in a home they NEVER could afford in the first place at the expense of those like you is absolutely stomach-turning to me.

The dollar has hit all-time lows, and there's little doubt that it's because of unrelentless trade deficits, national debt, with the Feds printing money as fast as possible to keep us afloat. That's no answer: a price correction is absolutely mandated, and trying to delay it is like pulling a bandage off a scab slowly, prolonging the pain.

Anonymous said...

Just wanted to respond to Frank, at April 30, 2007 8:05 AM: "I can't wait to see what kind of bailout nonsense Arizona will propose now that the state government has been hijacked by handout-loving liberals."

Frank, don't generalize. I could be described as a "handout-loving" individual (though not a "liberal" int he traditional sense) by many, but I'm definitely AGAINST baliing out irresponsible, greedy speculators and homedebtors, just as much as I am against bailing out banks through this type of bailout, supposedly for the benefit of "homeowners". Taxes paid by myself and basically all of us, are ideally a way to finance the welfare of society as a whole; this money should NOT be used to finance individual "investments" or higly risky lending. I'm with you all in rejecting such proposals.

But guess what? Politicians will do what they need to do to make a "savior of the masses" name for themselves, and get voted back into office next election term. This housing speculative phenomenon has involved a high volume of Democrats and Democratic-leaning constituents, as much as it has Republican and Republican-leaning individuals. Hence, it's a win-win situation for all of these career politicians. These bailout proposals are perhaps some of the few points on which members of the two most important political parties in this country can still agree on. Hence, I don't see how any of our letters and calls to local govts will do a thing to prevent more and more irresponsible govt spending in this way. That's not to say we shouldn't try....But I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for any of that to significantly change the course of events, as they are unfolding already.