April 17, 2007

Time for a homebuilder dead pool? "It's only a matter of time"

Any nominations?

I loved the website fuc&edcompany during the dot-com collapse. Time for someone to start one for the REIC collapse, even though mortgageimplode is doing a great job of it on the lender side.

The collapse of the subprime mortgage market may push some big U.S. homebuilders toward Chapter 11 beginning next year, according to bankruptcy advisers and lawyers who specialize in the real estate industry.

The weakest publicly held builders are staying out of bankruptcy by relying on the profits they made when sales boomed and on the public debt they sold in those years, said Ronald Greenspan, a lawyer and financial adviser to the creditors of four bankrupt subprime mortgage lenders. Homebuilders issued $3.6 billion in public debt in 2005 and 2006, though only $600 million of that comes due this year, Greenspan said.

``There is no sword over the industry's head yet,'' said Greenspan today at a conference of the American Bankruptcy Institute in Washington. ``That doesn't mean the industry is not wounded. Instead, the breaking point could come in 2008 or 2009.''

None of the major, publicly traded homebuilders have declared bankruptcy, though there are signs many are in financial trouble, Greenspan said, declining to name specific companies. The value of shareholder's equity for some companies equals or exceeds the value of the undeveloped land the companies have under contract, he said. As the housing downturn continues, that land will fall in value.

``You are going to see the smaller companies get bit earlier,'' Bruck said. By next year, or the year after, some of the larger companies will be forced to restructure as the housing crunch continues, he said.

``It's only a matter of time,'' Bruck said.


Anonymous said...

"Everybody's worried about stopping terrorism. Well, there's a really easy way: stop participating in it." - Noam Chomsky

PrudentObserver said...

I am aware of two builders that have gone into bankruptcy in Green Bay. One was foreclosed on, the other went into voluntary liquidation.

Anonymous said...

Keith why oh why do you censor my posts? what are you afraid of?

Mark in San Diego said...

There was a great website back in the internet days with a coffin and great funeral music . . .we had many online funerals - the first was for Informix (crashed and burned, then got bought), but it was a very funny site. . .let's find that coffin and music again! Who will be first?? . . .

Jeffrey said...

Keith, did you ever post on the FC Boards?


Good times. I was there from November 2000 till the end.

That Burning Bush Smell said...

Might as well add a catagory for all the sub-contractor trades going under as well. Plumbers, painters, roofers, flooring guys, even the $20,000 granite kitchen counter top installers are looking for work.