April 15, 2007

A record 58,257 Phoenix bag-holders (aka "Desperate Homedebtors") are wondering today "where did all the buyers go"

Ah, a classic and inevitable end of a grand Ponzi Scheme is now unfolding in Phoenix. A sight to behold HP'ers. Textbook.


Phoenix, bottom line, you're screwed. Sorry to say. But it was your own doing.

50% appreciation in 2005? What a joke. Your fake economy was built on the back of a corrupt and out of control REIC, your homes are not worth 100% more than they were just a few years ago, and now your economy will collapse due to out of control mortgage fraud, massive REIC layoffs, out of control illegal immigration, and basic human greed.

Good luck out there Phoenix. You're gonna need it.

35 comments:

Anonymous said...

This # will b 100,000 by August.

Anonymous said...

But John McCain will win the presidency and everything in Arizona will be fine.

Anonymous said...

That pic looks like a call center for NEW during the boom time. Now even a coyote wouldn't touch it.

Anonymous said...

But Greg Swann researched it! And he said Phoenix home values would only go up and up! There are so many people moving to Phoenix! The fundamentals don't matter! He said!

Anonymous said...

Living in scottsdale you hear people in denial of why their home isn't selling. Its really odd. People still think that they should get top dollar for their 30 yr old crappy ranch becuase it has granite countertops.

Anonymous said...

Yippeee. I want Phoenix, Miami and Vegas to be completely hosed. Nasty places with nasty scammers. Dive, dive, dive. O.K. some of california can take a hit as well...........

ocrenter said...

thank you Keith for the plug.

the latest update on inventory shows 59,014 per ziprealty.

on an unrelated note, be sure to check out this story while you are over at BMIT. There's nothing like a good $100,000 price reduction on your model just 4 months after you move in.

ahhh... the rewards of homeownership...

Anonymous said...

Is that Greg Swann's house in the photo?

Flip This house said...

I'll give you 500K for that, I'll flip it in a year for 750k

bugsy said...

The Swanee River

Way down upon the Swanee River,
Far, far away,
There's where my heart is turning ever,
There's where the old folks stay.
All up and down the whole creation,
Sadly I roam,
Still longing for the old plantation,
And for the old folks at home.

Chorus
All the world is sad and dreary
Everywhere I roam.
O brothers, how my heart grows weary,
Far from the old folks at home.

2nd verse
All round the little farm I wander'd,
When I was young;
Then many happy days I squander'd,
Many the songs I sung.
When I was playing with my brother,
Happy was I.
Oh, take me to my kind old mother,
There let me live and die.

3rd verse
One little hut among the bushes,
One that I love.
Still sadly to my memory rushes,
No matter where I rove.
When will I see the bees a humming,
All round the comb?
When shall I hear the banjo strumming,
Down in my good old home.

Speaking of Swanny, where is that troll? Swanee river, that's in florida, they're going down the toilet too. They'll be giving houses away before this is over. Look out below!

Mark in San Diego said...

What panic button will you hit for 60,000 listings (coming in about 3 weeks). . .I nominate the Hindenberg Video (can be found on Google Video Search). . ."oh the horror, the horror!" . . .

Anonymous said...

And yet prices are still not dropping.

Mark in San Diego said...

Mein Gott in Himmel (My God in Heaven) . . .get the Hindenberg Crash Video ready - just checked Ziprealty.com, and Phoenix is at 59,119 this morning. . .

Anonymous said...

I thought the economy had already collapsed and homes had already crashed in Phoenix. Or so I read on this blog 6 months ago.

Why still using the future tense KEEF? When will it ever be past tense?

trashwacker said...

Phoenix metro..The Horror!... The Horror!!

Phoenix and it surrounding metro area is finding its
own level.

Basically, a repository of mediocre poorly educated
bottom-feeders seeking cheap banal living and easy
money.This souless mix of carpet-bagging transients,
budget seniors,tatooed misfits, real estate grifters,
toothless white trash
tweakers, minimum wage job seekers and pseudo
Scottsdale millionaires has created a major population
center that masquarades as a major metropolis but is
really one big cow town.
A bleak barren landscape with terrible weather,traffic
congestion, bad air, stuffed with ugly stucco houses
and big box retailers peddling Chinese crap, corporate
food, and a dumbed down semi-literate citizenry,
Phoenix metro epitomizes the lowest commom denominator
of American cities.
If somehow, by either plan or accident, you're living
in metro Phoenix, you rank on the bottom rungs of the
intelligence charts. The only reason to be here,
(temporarily), is if you're making a decent income
(absolute min. 200k per yr). Anything less is not
worth it, as your health, mental well being and
personal esteem will deeply suffer by living in this
genetic cesspool of half-breeds.

As someone posted here before,
Metro Phoenix, AZ:
"There is no there, THERE".

uknowwhoiyam said...

Heh heh ... 58K homes ... this must be why Swann has recently begun deleting all posts to BloodHound that even raise the question that the market in Phoenix is in trouble.

THE MARKET'S GREAT! IT'S A GREAT TIME TO BUY!

Frank said...

Who's the anon idiot who said "And prices are still not dropping"????

Yes you dolt, ASKING prices are still not dropping! It's because desperate homedebtors in Arizona can't afford to sell their houses for any less than they're asking!

Prices are determined by sale prices ... oh and if you haven't noticed by the surging inventory, you idiot, houses are NOT SELLING.

www.scottsdale-sucks.com

Frank said...

Phoenix deserves this. It used to be a nice place to live but once the Real Estate Cult took over, I couldn't wait to move out. You literally cannot go anywhere in the Phoenix area and find a topic of coversation other than real estate.

But the biggest reason Phoenix is worthless is that three, only three, kinds of people live there:

1. Phony fake pretentious people with 3 mortgages and 20 maxed-out credit cards who have no real wealth, never will, and treat everyone else like dirt.

2. Angry white trash rednecks who are miserable and who hate everyone who isn't also a miserable angry white trash redneck.

3. Illegal immigrants who are raping our system.

The thing I couldn't stand about Arizona is that you had a choice of living either in a snob neighborhood full of rude people, or in a white trash ghetto. There's no middle ground and no neighborhoods with just normal middle class people.

www.scottsdale-sucks.com

burn baby burn said...

First off we have already shown that posting anon is for wimps. The reason why prices have not start to fall is denial!


"Anonymous said...
I thought the economy had already collapsed and homes had already crashed in Phoenix. Or so I read on this blog 6 months ago.

Why still using the future tense KEEF? When will it ever be past tense?"

Anonymous said...

Reminds me of an old cowboy song:

"yipee yi yi yo
get along little doggies
yipee yi yi yo
get along little doggies
cause you know Wyoming
wil be your new home."
Coconutz!

Anonymous said...

The only way to solve this supply and demand problem is to open our borders and bring in the illegals. Ow wait... already happening.

Anonymous said...

GOLD GOLD GOLD

Anonymous said...

“But the biggest reason Phoenix is worthless is that three, only three, kinds of people live there:

1. Phony fake pretentious people with 3 mortgages and 20 maxed-out credit cards who have no real wealth, never will, and treat everyone else like dirt.

2. Angry white trash rednecks who are miserable and who hate everyone who isn't also a miserable angry white trash redneck.

3. Illegal immigrants who are raping our system.”

You are full of shit.

I live in Glendale AZ.
I live in a gated community.
Current comps in my neighborhood are 900K – 1.2M
I completely paid off my Mortgage with proceeds from rental property I sold last month. In this so called doomed market.
I got 98 % of my asking price for that property in this market.
I have a few credit cards, but they all are paid off at the end of the month and I have not carried any balance for over 10 years.
I treat people they way I would like to be treated.
I am not a redneck, and my neighbors are mostly professionals or business owners. I am not aware of this group spoken about that hate everyone or are poor white trash or rednecks.
I do believe we have entirely too many illegal criminal border crossers in Arizona that have a culture of entitlement. I am for secure borders and deporting every single illegal in the country, no exception.

Phoenix is a large metropolitan city that is still number one in job growth. We do have lots of entry-level jobs, but the economy is strong and people still move here in droves.

I too wonder when the prices are going to drop because I have retention investment cash dollars that I have been sitting on for a while now that I would like to put to work. I have moved most of my 401K into money market accounts as well as most of my investment portfolio. I’m in cash, but the market continues to gain ground. I am waiting for a sizable drop in the market and in Real Estate so I can get going again. I have done this mostly because of the negative material I am reading about our economy.

In the mean time, if I had stayed in stocks, I might be better off today than I am by being conservative.

So I keep waiting for the shoe to drop, but prices are staying level or just slightly down.

Waiting in Phoenix, in my nice paid for middle class home, with lots of nice likeable neighbors.

trapped in AZ no more said...

"Frank said: Phoenix deserves this..."

Exactly... and don't forget the terrible weather and air quality....that's why we're fleeing this shithole next month after waiting a couple of years to finalize obligations...we're so anxious that we've arranged to leave the same evening our kid graduates from school.
The saying in my North Scottsdale household is : "Let's get the flock outta this phony dump!!"

Frank said...

I love how the idiot who refuted my post is an anon. Which pretty much proves that he's full of shit.

Trapped in az, CONGRATS on your upcoming escape! I really had no idea how bad Arizona was until after I moved out. I knew Scottsdale sucked while I was living there but still liked Arcadia and even north Glendale, but now that I'm in Orange County I can see that all of Arizona is shit.

Anonymous said...

This is Keith being stupid again. Yes, Phoenix is a bubble city, BIG-TIME. But to say it has a fake economy and that it will collapse due to illegal immigration and other factors is ridiculous. There is plenty of real (not fake) industry in Phoenix, but Keith doesn't have a broad enough frame of reference to understand that. Lots of screwed homebuyers? You bet. But Phoenix has one of the most resilient economies in the nation.

Anonymous said...

Oh renters you are so cute really. First you say that asking prices are what matters since they are an indication of future sales prices. Then when asking prices stay high you say they don't matter after all but only sales prices matter.

Then sales prices stay high as well. But in your deluded world, that doesn't matter either since those prices are somehow fudged by the NAR.

So asking prices don't count as sellng prices don't count, yet you tools are convinced prices are crashing.

And man, I've noticed a definite change in attitide with you as well lately. First the crash that you expected failed to appear, well unless you consider a 3% dropn in prices a crash. Then surprise surprise, the feds are going into pre-election BAILOUT mode.

All this leads to one thing: you will be renting your shithole apartment for another 20 years. Enjoy.

Jeff in Florida said...

"I live in Glendale AZ.
I live in a gated community.
Current comps in my neighborhood are 900K – 1.2M"
"Waiting in Phoenix, in my nice paid for middle class home, with lots of nice likeable neighbors."

On what planet is a Million Dollar home considered "middle class"?

Get your head out of the sand. Most people in America cannot afford that.
I guess you don't have alot of white trash neighbors living in a million dollar community. But in a median neighborhood where most people have to live I am sure there are many former trailer dwellers who got a good paycheck last year but just can't seem to shake that trailer park mentality.

Anonymous said...

Then surprise surprise, the feds are going into pre-election BAILOUT mode.

Yeah, and there isn't enough money in the economy to bail out $8 trillion in bad mortgages, let alone money that the federal government can spend.

Anonymous said...

“On what planet is a Million Dollar home considered "middle class"?”

When I paid 167,000 for it in 1988. Paradise valley has 10 million dollar homes.
Most middle class people could have afforded my home when I bought it. Now they can’t. I own it free and clear. Luck? No.. just planning.

“I guess you don't have alot of white trash neighbors living in a million dollar community.”

I hope not, but there aren’t many trashy neighborhoods near here anyway. Most have HOA’s that mandate clean yards, neutral colors etc…

I sold all my other properties in the last year, without much trouble in this so called doomed market. I didn’t panic and I didn’t have to.

As continued record growth in the Phoenix area brings a constant influx of new buyers, the inventory can work its way down without everyone jumping off a cliff. Its blogs like this one that create a panic and could trigger irresponsible fear that has not materialized. Its always going to happen next week, but I haven’t seen the shock wave hit yet.

I am prepared: I have my residence paid off; I am in cash in my portfolios and money markets in my 401K. I have additional funds available to move when and if the crash happens.

My point is that had I not moved to cash positions, I would have realized gains in stocks that I am now missing. Either way, I have no reason to fear for the future.

Waiting for a major downturn to re-invest.

rogersmith8080 said...

AZ is a just the first to get hit by this train wreck because AZ is the closest cart to the front of the train. It will hit the rest of the cars in the train. I love the comments that deny all this.

“I thought the economy had already collapsed and homes had already crashed in Phoenix. Or so I read on this blog 6 months ago.
Why still using the future tense KEEF? When will it ever be past tense?”

Ouch your right the market did not collapse 6 months ago that means everything is just sunshine and moonbeams. The largest glut of inventory is AZ history and still growing with no end in sight, +20% potential buyer market locked out from Sub-Prime shake up, foreclosures at all time highs and still growing and Alt-A companies like Countrywide showing problems with Alt-A mortgages. Anonymous you think this market is about to turn around any time soon, if so I suggest you run your @ss down to Phoenix and buy these homes up for an easy flip.

My question to the nay Sayers is this “Who the hell has the money and is going to buy up these homes?” don’t give me employment numbers, stock numbers, median prices, tell me who CAN and WILL buy these houses at these prices. At the end of the day all those numbers are pointless; you need people with money to buy those homes. If high stock market or good employment numbers was all it took to sell homes I would have built a track of 100 in Death Valley to sell. So far this spring we have not seen these people, are they still in hibernation from the winter? When will they wake up and start buying in AZ?

Anonymous said...

I have investment dollars to spend, but I am not buying now. I am not buying because I believe there will be bargains when people do start dumping properties.

In the mean time, I can wait even if I might be losing out on current stocks.

It just does not feel like the current trend in the DOW can sustain itself.

Waiting for easy pickings in my confortable paid for home in Glendale.

Puzzled said...

What exactly are we looking at here? Is this Phoenix, or some third world country?

I suppose the building in the foreground could be a duplex. Highrises in the back ground, is that where the rich folks live?

Anonymous said...

Where did he get the idea that his cardboard box in that slum was worth 950,000 dollars in borrowings

Anonymous said...

Yeah, and there isn't enough money in the economy to bail out $8 trillion in bad mortgages, let alone money that the federal government can spend.

Renter you've been drinking a little too much bathtub gin. $8T...sure why not 8 gajillion?

Do you even know what a trillion means?