A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
can you spell disintermediation,
real estate clerks,
Thank you Keith! I always enjoy your site tremendously. I've been a financial planner for 24 years and have been warning my clients regarding the "bubble" for some time. My clients were mostly in higher quality non-U.S. bond funds in 2000 and it feels like deja vu now. Since large declines in RE have generally been associated with large delines in stocks, I'm using some mutual funds that go opposite the averages to hedge the value of clients homes. The last few years, opposite the market went down and my clients homes went up in value...I guess that means my hedge is working perfectly so far...tell that to them! However, I'm hopeful that this will be the year we will see local and national declines of some magnitude in home prices and a decline in the NASDAQ 100. See Precter's book Conquer the Crash for a good chart linking re prices and stock prices going back to the 1800.
It's a buyer's market - like never beforeHousing experts suggest reasons for record 50,000 listings in stateGlen CrenoThe Arizona RepublicApr. 9, 2007 12:00 AMDave and Karen Rysdam got a jolt when pricing their Glendale home to put on the market.They wanted to sell in the low $600,000s, but their agent recommended an aggressive price in the low $500,000s.Surprised, the couple consulted an appraiser, who offered similar advice. Reluctantly, they listed the house for $519,900.advertisement "The initial reaction was, 'This is too low.' But when you take the emotions out and look at factual data, it feels like it is right given today's market conditions," Dave said.The Rysdams are among a record number of Arizonans trying to sell their homes in today's slowed market. More than 50,000 houses and condos - of which about 95 percent are in the Valley - were listed in March, according to preliminary figures from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service. A healthy market typically carries about half of that number, analysts say.The glut of housing poses problems for an ailing market struggling to find its feet in the wake of a housing frenzy. Listings have been climbing steadily since the boom fizzled, with the total exceeding 40,000 last year. Analysts have said reducing inventory is necessary for recovery in both the new and resale markets, yet resale listings are at an all-time high.So what is driving the numbers? Analysts point to several things:• Sellers are unrealistic. Many are pricing homes higher than what buyers are willing to pay.• It's partly cyclical. Sellers dust off their homes after the holidays and put them back on the market for the spring buying season.• Investors are unloading homes. Those left over from the boom are trying to get rid of houses that are declining in value."They are the amateur speculators of last year or the year before," Valley housing analyst RL Brown said, noting that big inventory means price softness. "Their 'wink-wink' loan of two or three years ago is about to change into a serious burden."Brown, who heads Home Builders Marketing, sees a few other types of would-be sellers who are helping push the number of listings higher. One is the house shopper who sees lending standards tightening in the wake of the subprime loan scandal and figures and believes he better get a loan now because he won't qualify in a few months.Another is the casual seller just seeing what kind of offers her home may draw.Then there is the seller who absolutely has no idea what is happening in the market and what homes are worth, Brown said."They are the dialed-out folks," he said.The Rysdams don't seem to fit in that category.Dave, director of financial systems for Honeywell Aerospace, combed his neighborhood to check out the competition. The Rysdams spent about $20,000 upgrading the house for sale.The couple bought their house for about $205,000 in 1994 and expected to do well selling it because they didn't pull "a penny" of equity out. They are averaging a showing a day, but if they don't get an acceptable price, they are prepared to walk away from a $30,000 deposit on a new house."For us, the only real variable is what we get out of this house," he said. "I'm a finance guy. ... The market doesn't care how much I owe on my house. It's irrelevant to what the market will pay for your house."Not all homeowners are of the same mind. Some agents say they are going on listing appointments only to find cranky and argumentative sellers. Agents are turning down listings because sellers won't budge from their target prices, a radical change from the boom years when agents scrambled to secure listings that sold in a few days or even a few hours."If you go to a lawyer or a doctor, you are paying a lot for that opinion," said Doreen Drew of Coldwell Banker Daisy Mountain. "But in real estate, they argue with you, even though they are paying huge amounts for you to sell their house."Housing analyst Tim Sullivan of the Sullivan Group in San Diego thinks resale listings should stabilize and maybe begin to fall midsummer.Drew said she thinks it will take most of this year to work inventory down to more healthy levels. She said more of the sellers she deals with are realistic about prices, and after six or seven counteroffers, a house may sell.But buyers still hold the upper hand, she said. And she has seen that directly at one of her listings."The buyers want everything," she said. "Sellers don't want to give up everything. In this house, the seller has reduced the price $50,000. In her mind, she has done all she could do. And now the buyer wants her two favorite chairs."
REALTORS must hate this blog
creative financing was the ability to sell 80,000 for 600,000 and let the bidding wars raise prices higher, seems the yeild searchers enabled it, in order to gain what amounted to a 2 percent raise in yeild on money that was stock market protected from loss,the house buyers were buying that raise, and dreaming of their 100"s of percent increases in selling prices, as infestors
NOTE TO EVERYONE: DO NOT BUY A HOME IN PHOENIX, OR ANYWHERE ELSE IN ARIZONA. AZ MUST BE MADE AN EXAMPLE OF!
I don't hate this site, I voted it one of the best housing blogs not too long ago! Right behind NJrereport. Rhymingrealtor
If Realtwhores are "overpaid" they must be eating ramen at Nobu for $ 24.95 a bowl. Your level of consistency is abysmal. Make up your mind.
Job losses in mortgages, real estate, and construction are up 346% year over year.http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-layoffs6apr06,1,2535238.story?coll=la-headlines-business&ctrack=1&cset=true
Realtors don't hate the site, just some of the perma-renter comments. j/k lolThe blame goes to Greenspam.Educated Realtors (10% ?) understood the traditional boom/bust concept and advised accordingly. You should see the gazed look on most Buyer's though. HDTV, Travel Channel with Flip This House shows hasn't helped educate the masses. It's created a get rich atmosphere instead. We tell a Buyer to be careful with that 100% loan, ARM, or I/O loan and SWOOSH the gazed look appears. They hear nothing and see nothing, they only want a house. We prepare the offer and they buy a house that THEY choose. What do you want us to do, tell them to find someone else to write the offer?
Realtors, like GM assembly line workers, WERE overpaid. They've now priced themselves out of jobs.The market sets the price. Not the supplier. And the market is telling realtors that the game is up.6%? Try $6.
ReallyEgotiscalAssholesLying ToOverextendedRetards LOL! Good one Anon!
Anonymous said... Realtors don't hate the site, just some of the perma-renter comments. j/k lolThe blame goes to Greenspam.Educated Realtors (10% ?) understood the traditional boom/bust concept and advised accordingly. You should see the gazed look on most Buyer's though. HDTV, Travel Channel with Flip This House shows hasn't helped educate the masses. It's created a get rich atmosphere instead. We tell a Buyer to be careful with that 100% loan, ARM, or I/O loan and SWOOSH the gazed look appears. They hear nothing and see nothing, they only want a house. We prepare the offer and they buy a house that THEY choose. What do you want us to do, tell them to find someone else to write the offer? April 09, 2007 9:22 PM-------After you've manipulated and steered then to the house tht pays you gthe fattest commission and that you've lied through your teeth as being the greatest thing since sliced bread while simultaneously panning/balck balling and avoiding all the FSBOs and low commission homes that woudl have been perfect for you employer.Yes, you heard me employer, you work for the buyer and have a fiduciary duty to THEM and not to the benjamins you'll be getting when they buy the 500k home they cannot afford instead of the 200k place that fits there budget. Percentage and price are the two key variables that impact on the size of your compensation. So you are a willing participant in all of this because you want your check and you want to run from the settlement table ASAP before the loan blows up and the homedebtor goes postal on you.PS - I was an owner until I got exploited and taken by several realtwhore. Now I'm renting another FB who did not have the wisdom to sell before it was too late and waiting it out for the next 3-5 years until my pay is up, my downpayment will be 20% and prices in real terms have reverted to the meean. Oh and I will nto use and agent and nor will I pay for the selling agent's commission, hence the most I'll pay is 94% of list.
The couple bought their house for about $205,000 in 1994 and expected to do well selling it because they didn't pull "a penny" of equity out. They are averaging a showing a day, but if they don't get an acceptable price, they are prepared to walk away from a $30,000 deposit on a new house.Can you say retard? Jesus H. Christ, they paid $205K and want $600K but will settle for nothing less than $500K or they walk from the $30K on a new house?!?!?!? So with inflation today the same house should cost around $275K.
And yet and yetand yetPRICES HAVE NOT FALLEN!!!
Can't be ramen eating and terribly overpaid.
R asshole'sE asshole'sA asshole'sL asshole'sT asshole'sO asshole'sR asshole's
" Oh and I will nto use and agent and nor will I pay for the selling agent's commission, hence the most I'll pay is 94% of list"More power to you 'bro. I have to say, most Fizbo's are overpriced by over 10%. Quite a few homes I've seen lately are owned by FB's that NEED more than the value. I wouldn't advise saving just 20% for a down payment in most markets. Try and wait until you have 50% or more. A home isn't an investment, per se, it's a asset that should keep up with inflation. If you're living near either coast, I wouldn't buy at all. Those markets have a longer way to fall. I'd move to a different part of the world. LOLPrices in coastal markets might drop over 40%. Prepare for the coming consumer debt crash. The housing crash is only a small part of the iceberg. Got debt?
R RentingE evenA asL lotsT toilO overR riches!
Has anyone seen the stats for lottery winners? The short version is that they're broke in a year or two. Stupid people do stupid things. Stupid people buying/selling houses have the same problem. Some buy the wrong house in the wrong area. Others buy far above their means. Even more buyers get 30 year mortgages and then add a HELOC if price rise to spend more debt on junk.A smart buyer realizes that a home is asset to be OWNED. If you have to get a 30 yr. mortgage, have a plan to PAY IT OFF someday.You wouldn't believe the number of FB's in our town. It's numbing. I met with a guy last week that had overbought from a FSBO 4 years ago. He'll barely break even in this market. He needed repairs on the home and had no money. I turned down the listing. Can you imagine the complaints from a FB'er? I don't need the headache of the daily calls "have you sold my house yet?" The guy was irate when I turned him down!Another seller this weekend had 3 mortgages and will be forced to carry a personal note for the short sale. He's more realistic on the plan. I took the listing on this one.Blaming your housing problems on a Realtor is like blaming your online stock broker on a losing daytrade (I just made that up). I've yet to "sell" a house. The buyer picks the home from an area of town that has benefits that suit their needs. I offer advise on neighborhood resale trends, the buying process, and market statistics. The buyer picks the bricks and sticks (I made that slogan up too). If the house is a crap box in a bad neighborhood and they still want this one over that one, even after everything I've told them, guess what? I write it up!Got debt?
Are there really people out there so stupid as to pay 6%? My brother negotiated it seller's fee down to 4%. It will keep going lower and lower until a very good home-selling website can be put together by Yahoo or Google. There is still the problem of showing your home, especially if you no longer live in the city. I would say a flat fee is more reasonable
Runt'sExcitedAvarice LeadsTo OrnateRipoffsRemember,EnvyAlwaysLeadsTo OafishRuinRegrettablyEnterprisingAssLearnedToObfuscateReality
RealEvilAgentsLooking To OvervalueRat holes
RatsEating AtLowlyTaco BellOverReal Estate crash
RealEvilAgentsLooking To OvervalueRat holes ------------------Good one!!
LOL they are all hilarious, lol.
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