April 03, 2007

Phoenix, We Have a Problem!

Thanks bubbletracking...

73 comments:

Anonymous said...

Buy now before you get priced out of the market forever.

They're not making any more land, you know.

Real estate prices never go down.

Our area is special. Our [local industry/economic concern] causes the prices to be so high. We're immune to price drops.

I know a mortgage broker who can get you a low rate, no money down loan in a day or two.

trashwacker said...

In case somebody missed or forgot it:

Phoenix and it surrounding metro area is finding its
own level.

Basically, a repository of mediocre poorly educated
bottom-feeders seeking cheap banal living and easy
money.This souless mix of carpet-bagging transients,
budget seniors,tatooed misfits, real estate grifters,
toothless white trash
tweakers, minimum wage job seekers and pseudo
Scottsdale millionaires has created a major population
center that masquarades as a major metropolis but is
really one big cow town.
A bleak barren landscape with terrible weather,traffic
congestion, bad air, stuffed with ugly stucco houses
and big box retailers peddling Chinese crap, corporate
food, and a dumbed down semi-literate citizenry,
Phoenix metro epitomizes the lowest commom denominator
of American cities.
If somehow, by either plan or accident, you're living
in metro Phoenix, you rank on the bottom rungs of the
intelligence charts. The only reason to be here,
(temporarily), is if you're making a decent income
(absolute min. 200k per yr). Anything less is not
worth it, as your health, mental well being and
personal esteem will deeply suffer by living in this
genetic cesspool of half-breeds.

As someone posted here before,
Metro Phoenix, AZ:
"There is no there, THERE".

Anonymous said...

Yup, the stars over Phoenix are alignin' for a perfect SWANN DIVE!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

inventory = 100,000 by August

Anonymous said...

The next edition of Survivor will consist entirely of Phoenix real estate agents.

Anonymous said...

Oh MY GOD! That can't be right!

PhysicsNinja said...

Hey keith, you might like this one:

"New down-payment funding idea draws regulators' attention"

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm/070402/aa2879a844954c1da8cce679599dd3db.html?.v=1&.pf=loans

Anonymous said...

We are F*cked! Last time I had a feeling like this was when I saw a tornado heading right to my trailer.

Anonymous said...

Mayday, Mayday....is anyone there? Mayday Mayday........help.

area 51 said...

There's gotta be a comment from Lereah at the December dip in inventories, saying something like, "YUP we've hit bottom in Phoenix, inventories will be dropping now and into the future.......back to normal now.....fence sitters better rush back in!" Bull trap anyone?

Guadalupe-Hidalgo 1848 said...

Dear Dumb-ass Keith, while you pimp for war with Iran, understand that it is all part of Bush-Cheney Reich. Still waiting for you to join the army, put up or shut up coward keith.





The botched US raid that led to the hostage crisis
Exclusive Report: How a bid to kidnap Iranian security officials sparked a diplomatic crisis
By Patrick Cockburn
Published: 03 April 2007

A failed American attempt to abduct two senior Iranian security officers on an official visit to northern Iraq was the starting pistol for a crisis that 10 weeks later led to Iranians seizing 15 British sailors and Marines....

Anonymous said...

What a difference a year makes.

Trouble maker said...

Oh, man, this is trouble

Anonymous said...

What about Las Vegas?

Anonymous said...

Sell all of your personal real estate. Now! people...

David L said...

we've hit bottom it's all coming up roses from here on out.

Anonymous said...

"Stocks surged Tuesday on signs of an improving housing market"


http://biz.yahoo.com/
ap/070403/
wall_street.html?.v=33

Man, this blog makes no sense

*Shugs shoulders and watches American Idiol on TIVO.*

Yahoo said...

"That says people are getting mortgages, people are buying houses, people have incomes, jobs, all that good stuff," said Kim Caughey, equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group. "You'd never go out and buy a house if you think you're going to get laid off. Consumers are optimistic about the future, and as we all know, the consumer drives this economy."

Richard said...

.
.
.
see 7/05

yep that's when i off'd house #2

now then - I am having a hard time seeing the "sales" little red line for March 07 - I am looking really hard.

oh man this is gonna get bad really really bad!!!

popcorn please

Anonymous said...

***interest-only £200,000 mortgage ***
Some never learn....


Man, 102, takes out 25-year mortgage

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/
tol/business/
money/mortgages/
article1564480.ece

A pensioner aged 102 has been granted a 25-year mortgage despite the fact he would have to live until 127 to pay the loan back.

The property investor from East Sussex has taken out an interest-only £200,000 mortgage and hopes to meet the £958 monthly repayments with income from rent as he joins a growing army of retired people hoping to cash in on buy-to-let schemes

Anonymous said...

An borrowers proverb maintains that if you fail to make a payment, you should remember it was because of the banker.

We are victims, now where did I put my foil hat?

Anonymous said...

**********
wake up and smell the coffee
**********

Mort said...

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

Anonymous said...

President George W. Bush and Democrats in charge of Congress will fix it, no need to worry. Look at the market:

DOW
+129.14 12511.44
+1.04%

Nobody is worried, ok, time to wrap this blog up and put it to bed.

Good US of A said...

two words:

"Shock and Awe"

Anonymous said...

Do you have a smiliar chart for Las Vegas?

There is almost never ay info for LV. You never read about hosuing in the local papers, never a mention of it on local TV.

Anonymous said...

http://tinyurl.com/2f5fc3

Anonymous said...

Democracy Now is going to air a segment on subprime loans on its regular newscast tomorrow (Wednesday). It will be available to watch any time after noon eastern.

http://democracynow.org/

Anonymous said...

Zero Sales in 3/07?

Marky Mark

raynla said...

.






I think Greg Swan and his Bloodhound Reality buddies better sniff out some buyers fast.

raynla said...

Phoenix Rising!!!

Anonymous said...

So does California.

Forecast: Housing, Mortgage Troubles Will Hurt Calif. Economy
KNBC-TV
7:19 a.m. PDT April 2, 2007
LOS ANGELES - California's economy will slow this year because of a "double whammy" of a stagnant housing market and mortgage foreclosures, UCLA economists predicted Monday. The housing market in California will be stagnant for some time because of a surge in mortgage defaults and an "implosion" of the subprime mortgage market, according to the latest UCLA Anderson Forecast. "We are still forecasting a significant slowing of the California economy in 2007, as the double whammy from construction and mortgage finance creates drag on the rest of the economy," economist Ryan Ratcliff wrote in the forecast. The largest increase in mortgage defaults was seen in the East Bay and Sacramento areas and Bakersfield, Ventura and Riverside counties. According to the forecast, counties where new houses are a big part of the market are most likely to have the biggest increase in defaults. Economists attribute that trend to the fact that first-time homebuyers are moving into more affordable areas, and builders in those areas have placed an emphasis on moving inventory quickly, thus stretching lending standards to close a deal. In 2006, the construction market lost 2,700 jobs. Those losses are expected to continue this year. "We expect to see job growth in California slow to below 1 percent through the middle of 2008, with growth in real personal income and real taxable sales slowing to the low 2 percent through this period," according to Ratcliff. In many ways, the national economy is a "mirror image" to 2000, according to the forecast. Seven years ago, the corporate sector was overextended in the aftermath of the dot-com boom, while consumer and housing credit were in good shape. Now, the housing credit is in trouble while the corporate sector has a healthy cash flow. "We are becoming increasingly nervous about the economic outlook as the period of below trend growth grinds on," economist David Shulman wrote in the forecast. "Put bluntly, the credit crunch in the subprime mortgage market will likely trigger a second leg down in the housing market in terms of output and prices." Economists are forecasting real gross domestic product growth to be 2.1 percent, 1.7 percent and 2.5 percent in the first, second and third quarters, respectively, in the coming fiscal year.

More News From nbc4.tv:

Anonymous said...

house prices are not dropping too much in PHX. no one is dumping yet! in decent neighbourhoods, houses are still selling at high $300K and low $400K.

autofx in Phx said...

I've been watching the Phoenix market very closely since the fall of 2005.

I know of three individuals who need to sell their homes, and one who is in a really desperate situation.

The big collapse is now starting to be come obvious to more than just a few, from all I gather.

Anonymous said...

HA hA I sold my house in PHX and you didn't. To bad, better luck next time. Oh what do you mean there won't be a next time because you are getting foreclosed on.

Anonymous said...

it looks like no sales in march 2007

Charlie said...

Shouldn't prices be dropping with graphs like this?
Are they dropping much in Pheonix?

Anonymous said...

Supply

Demand

Prices

Questions?

Anonymous said...

0 sales in March?

Anonymous said...

how does Greg Swann spin that?

Anonymous said...

Looks like over a year's worth of inventory and growing!

Anonymous said...

I recommend all buyers out there forget about buying in bubbly markets for at least 8 years.

I know this sucks. But you have to change your thinking about buying a home being the American dream. It will be again someday, right now - just rent and smile.

Anonymous said...

Inventory UP!

Prices STABLE and down a tiny bit!

This is happening all across USA!

Anonymous said...

SELL YOU WIVES & KIDS TO WHORE HOUSE!

Anonymous said...

PHOENIX IS NUMERO UNO!

MEXICAN RULES!

Anonymous said...

anyone knows of any whore houses in PHX???

Anonymous said...

Toyota's March Sales Jump, GM, Ford Fall
AP -

The best monthly sales performance ever for Toyota and gains by fellow Japanese automakers Honda and Nissan helped the industry in March top last year's best month for U.S. sales despite declines by GM, Ford and DaimlerChrysler.

Anonymous said...

* Stocks Surge on Positive Housing Report AP
* Tax Outlets Cited for Bogus Returns AP
* Oil Prices Lose More Than $1 a Barrel AP
* Insurers to Get Higher Medicare Payments AP
* Market Overview: Tue 4:20 PM ET Briefing.com

» More Top Stories...

Anonymous said...

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Anonymous said...

Investor's Business Daily
Double-Bottom Bases Can Mirror Market
Monday April 2, 7:00 pm ET
Nancy Gondo

The pickings tend to be quite slim during a rocky or declining market. But such periods usually give leading stocks a chance to digest their gains and set up in new bases.

A market pullback offers a good opportunity to freshen up your watch list. Track the market to see which leaders are forming sound bases. That way you'll be ready to jump in when the market follows through and stocks start breaking out.

Richard said...

Ok so today I had 30 more cases of MREs delivered.

I live in a city around Phoenix.

The driver saw a "for sale by owner" sign in my garage (used it to sell second home a few years back)...he says:

"what happened to the market?"

I said yeah - seems quite

He said, "I am taking it up the ass, $2100 mortgage, F'ing broker lied to me...said I could refi in a year or two...I can't do shit...can't sell...can't refi...I am screwed"

I said "really?"

Then he made this bend over gesture with associated hand movement and said..."no vaseline".

Little does he know ...he will be dead in under 5 years from starvation.

Anonymous said...

Is it just me or where are the buyers? Phoenix is a shit box by any standard.

Frank said...

I moved out of there a month ago, specifically Scottsdale, where people are VERY desperate to sell and cannot. That town seems to be nothing but option-arm loans that are all converting this year. You see expensive cars that are brand new with "for sale" signs in the windows. It's bad, but damn hilarious for me, since all of those option-arm phonies are also the biggest jerk snobs I've ever met in my life.

www.scottsdale-sucks.com

Ben Dover said...

Anonymous said...

Supply

Demand

Prices

Questions?


I have a couple... How much will the lenders allow prices to drop (short sales)? Where will the FB's get the cash for closing said short sales?

Anonymous said...

"You cannot play God then wash your hands of the things that you've created. Sooner or later the day comes when you can't hide from the things that you've done anymore." - [Edward James Olmos from Battlestar Galactica (miniseries)]

Anonymous said...

film icon February 24, 2006 – "This is television, that's all it is. It's nothing to do with people, it's to do with the ratings. For 50 years we've told them what to eat, what to drink, what to wear. For Christ's sake, Ben, don't you understand? Americans love television! They wean their kids on it! Listen, they love game shows, they love wrestling, they love sports and violence. So what do we do? We give 'em what they want!

The Running Man
[Richard Dawson]

incessant_din said...

OMG, that's one of the all-time great plots!

Mort said...

"Conan! What is best in life?" "To crush your enemies -- See them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women!"

me said...

Time2Buy

Anonymous said...

Remember summer 2005 was the peak for Phoenix and those 2/28's will by skyrocketing in a couple of months. We'll see how the flippers and FB's do by the end of summer. It will be carnage.

Anonymous said...

Phoenix needs a "Buy one, get two free" sale on housing!

Anonymous said...

Caesar Chavez Day in San Diego was celebrated by a few ignorant high school students, who more or less wanted a few hours away from school.

When interviewed by local media, these bario wetbacks had no knowledge or idea who he even was!

One dumb spic(ette), all she had to say was, in a screaming voice, was Wooo mexico, Wooo mexico!

Ole'

cabbiesouth said...

funny

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tm9DRSlvGgA

Anonymous said...

ha..ha..ha..ha..ha..ha - oops - sorry!

corvinus said...

If people move from your city of Phoenix, it raises the average IQ of both cities.

AmazedRenter said...

How about the NAR's Phoenix anti-bubble reports?

http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/files/Phoenix.pdf/$FILE/Phoenix.pdf

The first two sentences: "With home prices rising strongly in most parts of the country, there has been widespread media coverage on the possibility of a housing market bust. A thorough analysis of the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale metro market, as detailed below, reveals that there is very little danger of this...."

Amber said...

There are more graphs at:
http://bubbletrackinggraphs.blogspot.com/

Besides the bubble blog referenced above, what is the source of these graphs anyway? There are several graphs of highly populated areas that show zero sales in March. I just don't believe that.
There's got to be ONE PERSON that bought a house in all of LA, Orange County, Las Vegas, etc.
The graphs were posted on 3/31, and I'm thinking they were posted before March sales data was released.

Anonymous said...

Frank should love this one!

Just pulled up a list of the highest priced houses in the valley, and there was one in Scottsdale that was listed for $ 24,950,000 633 days ago. Reduced to $ 19,990,000 a while back, and just sold for $10,000,000.

Don't know the details, but lopping $ 15 Million off the price of ANY house can't be a good thing.

If you extrapolate that to a listing at $ 249,500 (about the median) then the house will finally sell for about $ 100,000.

Who knows. It could happen.

Anonymous said...

Little does he know ...he will be dead in under 5 years from starvation.

Unfortunately Richard, even those who are preparing for the end will not have much luck. Short of having a hidden bunker that no one knows about, or fleeing to northern Canada, you're pretty much in the same boat as everyone else. And trust me - you wont be eating your MREs while others are just hungrily looking through your windows.

If you do the math - how far can a person travel in a day? On average I walk about 3 miles an hour, so after 8 hours of walking I could get 24 miles. Let's assume 20 Miles per day.

That means if the average walker is able to find water, they can travel 400 miles in 20 days.

Can you imagine what would happen if 15 million New Yorkers decided to start walking? They would out number the surrounding farmers 100 to 1. And they will probably be armed - so if they find any food, it's theirs.

And New York is not the only big city in the US. When all these people leave the city, they'll eat anything in sight, and kill off anyone who resists.

Nothing new - the same thing happened in northern Germany during Roman times. After a collapse of the food stocks, several hundred villagers picked up stakes and started walking to find food. A couple of years later their numbers swelled to over a million and they sacked Rome.

IB

uh oh said...

There's never been a better time to catch a hot knife

CashFLo said...

"villagers picked up stakes and started walking"

Well, I have a bicycle - I'll pass them all! Bwah-hah-hah!

Anonymous said...

I can't imagine food riots, sacking cities, or roaming hordes of evil new yorkers raping and pillaging. Agriculture and food production are so efficient in this country and the world that we will always be able to feed ourselves. Hell, the government still pays farmers not to grow crops.

What will happen is that millions will lose jobs and be on unemployment and food stamps and welfare. Tens of millions will lose their homes to foreclosure - but thats not the end of the world. These same homes will eventually be put back on market at greatly reduced prices, or as rentals. People will have places to live, and most will still find jobs, albeit at lower wages.

Without the artificial debt induced consumption frenzy, living standards will go down a bit, life expectancy may shorten a bit, but thats OK. We will revert back to consuming what we produce in an environment without asset speculation. It strikes me as most unnatural to have realtors driving around in leased S-class Mercedes, while school teachers have to work two jobs to buy a crappy house within a one hour commute of their school. I do not beieve this will continue for much longer.

And how does a shithole like Phoenix even exist? My guess is that there will be a huge migration away from places that have no real industry or purpose or that focus solely on domestic consumption, to those that do, especially those that successfully produce goods or services for the international market and those involved in energy, and food production.

Winners: LA, SF, NYC, DC, Iowa, Houston, Seattle, Boston, Montana.


Losers: Phoenix, Las Vegas, Atlanta, Detroit, Philly, Lousiana, Baltimore, Denver, Portland, Ohio.


In betweeners: Florida, Illinois, Carolinas.


Don't fear the future. But be well armed just in case. If civil order does fall apart, you will not be able to legally purchase a weapon or ammo. So stock up now.

Mort said...

Anonypuss, you are crazy. Most Americans couldn't walk two miles per week. It will be road warriors, with this bunch? If they empty the prisons I could see it, but your average US citizen couldn't make it a week in the outdoors. Thanks for the laugh.