A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
What are the five worst housing-bubble-based cities in the US?
epic historic housing crash,
Can't say. Metro DC is definitely frothy but from what I hear about other areas (CA/AZ/FL) I think Metro DC is just above average and not a top 5 city.
Top three, (a la location,location,location) are:Phoenix,Phoenix,Phoenix,America's repository for dead-enders and desperados. A massive collection of phonies,grifters, dead-beats and scammers trying to live way beyond their means at the expense of societyand honest citizens.The housing tsunami is already flushing these cockroaches down the toilet of lost dreams.
1. Costa Mesa, CA2. Irvine, CA3. Santa Ana, CA4. Tustin, CA5. Garden Grove, CA
Seattle, the last best bastion of smug stupid denial.
San Diego, Los Angeles, San Diego
NEW YORK CITYJust because it's always in some sort of a bubbledoesn't mean it's not in the middle of a bubble.Quality of the residential places available is worsethan usual -- ugly, dirty, and ridiculously overpriced.Maintenance fees, doorman overhead, etc. are huge.NY is one economic accident away from going from mega bubble to the capital of deflation.NYC is the poster-child of the real estate bubblein the U.S.A. and perhaps in the whole world.
"Top three, (a la location,location,location) are:Phoenix,Phoenix,Phoenix,"I sold 2 of my rental properties in March in Phoenix. I got 98% of my asking price. I had the properties on the MLS less than 15 days.Oh the pain of it all Captain Panic.I guess that makes me a phony grifter deadbeat scammer.I am crying... all the way to the bank.
America's repository for dead-enders and desperados. A massive collection of phonies,grifters, dead-beats and scammers trying to live way beyond their means at the expense of societyand honest citizens.The housing tsunami is already flushing these cockroaches down the toilet of lost dreams.=====We're not all like that, but there are plenty of them, to be sure.Scottsdale is the town of poseurs.
Location, location, location. New York City home of Wall Street
Anonymous said... "Top three, (a la location,location,location) are:Phoenix,Phoenix,Phoenix,"I sold 2 of my rental properties in March in Phoenix. I got 98% of my asking price. I had the properties on the MLS less than 15 days.Oh the pain of it all Captain Panic.I guess that makes me a phony grifter deadbeat scammer.I am crying... all the way to the bank. April 19, 2007 10:07 PM Hey, how about using a name instead of Anon you pussy? Oh, and 98% of zero is still zero... LOL
Lake Forest, California:)
San DiegoSigns are popping up EVERYWHERE quickly followed by "price reduced" and still not selling. It is going to be a very chilly spring/summer here in beautiful San Diego.
1. Riverside/San Bernadino2. Orange 3. Phoenix4. San Diego5.N.Virginia/Miami /Boston/Orlando/ Tampa???Predict prices in Bubble areas will be down 40-50% in 3-5 years. My wife and I are in our 50's, make over half mill a year and were astounded by the price run-up in SoCal and elsewhere. Sold our OC house a little early (2004) and are renting a $2 million+ place for $4800 per month. No worries about upkeep and maintenance, property taxes, etc. We do have three rental properties we've had for over a decade in non-bubble areas. One paid for - two will be within 5 years. Even those will probably lose value but we've got enough equity we are not losing sleep. Moving was a pain in the ass but worth it to cash out equity and sit out the market for five years or so.
PhoenixMiamiLas VegasThe entire west coastThe entire east coast
I'm going with OC on this one, here in Newport Beach houses in my area have gone from $1.3M to $800k in a year.Scottsdale is a very close #2. In the end Scottsdale will be #1 for foreclosures.
I agree with Anon, DC is out of whack and WILL get whacked but incomes will also rise quicker than say LV. I'd put it in the top 5 bubble regions but there are so many cities in CA/FL/ + LV/PHX that it gets bumped by default.
1) Miami2) Las Vegas3) Phoenix4) San Diego5) BostonIn other words, the whole country. Timing may differ, and include DENIAL populations like Seattle.
Honolulu is where the next crash happens. People here haven't reached denial yet. They still think that economics does not apply here.
If real estate goes bust really bad, in New York in particular, we get a two-fer, because numb-nuts Donald Trump may actually go bust as well : )
1. Queen Creek2. Gilbert3. Scottsdale4. Maricopa5. Buckeye
Loving County, TX Hamilton County, NY Rosman, NC Hoot Owl, OKGannts Quarry, ALFlorida, MSGlenwood Plantation, MELost Springs, WyomingTenny, MNWhite Rock, SD
PhoenixSan DiegoOrange CountyGulf coast FloridaLos Angeles
Inland Empire, Southern California. AKA: Riverside and San Bernardino counties. Home of the fat assed soccer moms in lifted F350s with spinners, 12 man Jacuzzis, tacky custom built Tiki decor backyards and wanna B Orange County douchebag uniforms...the untucked striped long sleeve shirt, designer 200 dollar jeans and fake European shoes (Kenneth Cole).5 years ago most of these assholes were working for minimum wage at the local plethora of warehouses. Now they are 'rich'. Stupid beotches. SUck it and suck it good.
My wife and I are in our 50's, make over half mill a year and were astounded by the price run-up in SoCal and elsewhereNo kidding. I make $800K a year myself. Always amazing how the same people on HP claiming to make all this money are the same ones bitching that ground beef went up by 10% or that illegals are stealing their jobs.
I shall post where its NOT bubbleous.1. Toledo / Detroit (homes under 50k! niiiice ones for 200k)2. Any state that borders on Canada except a coastal area.3. Any State that borders on a state that borders on Canada (non coastal)Rotsa Ruck getting a job in the above areas. And if you 'dont have to work' why would you want to live there as there is nothing 2 do half the year but hump snow. Its catch-22.
I COMPLETELY disagree with the "anonymous" individual who commented on NYC. Two main reasons: Inventory and population growth. In NYC, the question is "How much money will I make" not "will I make money." Inventory is limited, the city benefits from the exorbitant salaries and bonuses made by Wall Street honchos and NYC has huge population growth each and every year.
south florida !!!! prices are dropping like hogs out of the sky ... Its like an a-bomb hit and everybody is running for the hills.
"My wife and I are in our 50's, make over half mill a year and were astounded by the price run-up in SoCal and elsewhere" Always thought that when people reached "maturity" they started to have some couth. Guess not... Heres a dude crassly sticking his ass out crapping his income out for everyone to eat up. Dont cha luv it. He who dies with the most things wins!! The American dream.. Jack ass... or pathetic.. or ahole.. Kind of a word association game for this poser.
Look at inventory, population, average and mean incomes, income to price ratio and by far the most screwed place is Miami--by a long shot. D.C. and NYC will be allright. Vegas will be nailed as will a lot of cali and all of FLA.
"I shall post where its NOT bubbleous."This is a very good point. Being 35 and just recently moving to DC from a rust belt city, I am ready to move back in a second and would think that younger people would want to do the same. The fact of the matter is that no matter where one lives, we really do not get to enjoy all that our respective city has to offer. I am sure that most weekends find most bloggers either catching up on sleep, taking care of things that did not get done during the week, or just going to some bar or pub where there are hot women- which can be found in any city. The point is, no matter what city one lives in, no one really goes to see the sights because life gets in the way. Accordingly, living in a high rent town makes absolutely no sense. I believe this is why Buffet lives in Omaha- for what he does, there is no difference between the beer in Omaha and NYC. So, I hope to move back to Upstate, eat some real food- Zweigles and/or Sahlens hots and a garbage plate or two, buy a sweet Victorian mansion with stained glass windows and wainscoating all over the joint for about 150K-200K, and have a summer home and a sweet, sweet boat to boot. The rest of you can "invest" in a POS 1 bedoroom condo in NYC or DC and live like paupers.
buddy, it was hamburger up 300 percent!!!! inflation adjusted as, hedonic values, up 10 persent and steak, now most likely classified filet mignon, hamburger by the fed, and no inflation,
so to et brutus, slumville
David, NYC has been poster child for Zero Population Growth since 1950. Try again.Here's my list, biased by my left coast base:1) Palmdale, CA2) Sarasota, FL3) Phoenix, AZ4) Medford, OR5) Washington, DCI know Nevada fits in there somewhere, but I thoroughly fail to understand the lure of Las Vegas, so I recuse myself from passing judgement.
Those pleasentville dreamers.Cal City Cali is the center of the shit universe.Next is the Grand Septic Tank ---Victorville Ca.Then the black nappy hole Lost Wages NV.
"the city benefits from the exorbitant salaries and bonuses made by Wall Street honchos"But the vast majority of the NYC population does not make those huge salaries. Just because you're well off does not mean others are. "and NYC has huge population growth each and every year. "NYC reached maximum population density several years ago. The population cannot grow simply because there is no more room. The same thing happened in San Francisco. For every person moving in, another is moving out. You either do not understand what constitutes population growth or you are getting your numbers grom a book of fairy tales. Furthermore, it is predicted that within the next few years more people will exit than enter the city as more and more people find living conditions (crime, the huge wealth gap, etc.) in NYC unbearable.
1. L.A.2. San Diego3. Miami4. Phoenix5. Bakersfield, Ca.
I'd say Vegas but that's not a real city
1) London2) Dublin3) Sydney4) Phoenix5) Shanghai
Honolulu, Hawaii. Average home prices are about $700K here... which probably doesn't sound like much to you Californians... but salaries are low here.
Maybe DC will be in the top 5 or at least the top 10 after reading this article!!:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/19/AR2007041902924_pf.html
Oh ... Ballantyne area in Charlotte NC.The average for charlotte is under 180K for 3,000 sqft. Ballantyne is over 400K. That area is the most crowded, the worst traffic and simply the shittiest area. It does however have lots of shopping malls and eateries all dumped in the middle of houses etc ... can you say neon bright daylight 24/7.It also is really close to the trailer parks and dumps in SC.Cool.Cow_tipping.
1-> 5 boroughs of new york6-> Mid Hudson Valley NY
I know Nevada fits in there somewhere, but I thoroughly fail to understand the lure of Las Vegas, so I recuse myself from passing judgement. Here is the lure:1. No snow2. No state income tax3. Very low property tax with a Prop 13 style 3% cap per year. My tax bill on a 3400 sq ft home is under $3000 a year.4. Ranked over and over as the city with the lowest business costs and bureaucracy.5. Golf course on every corner.6. Up until recently - before the onslaught of Californians moving in - a libertarian, do what you want to do as long as you don't hurt anyone else mentality. Yeah schools are awful and there is a lot of crime/gangs. I don't have kids so I could care less about schools and the vast majority of crime - at least violent crime - is concentrated in the inner city.Las Vegas isn't paradise, but it's a pretty good place to live if you hate taxes, hate the cold and love golf.
"incessant_din said...David, NYC has been poster child for Zero Population Growth since 1950. Try again."That is really true. New York City gained back most of its lost population around hmm... at the beginning of the housing boom in 1997. Does anyone remember when NYC went bankrupt and Gerald Ford told the mayor to go to hell when asked for a baleout?
If i knew where the low ante, low cost to keep places where and gasoline was not 3 bucks a gallon, i would not tell anyone that the opportunity to create a livable condition was available, as was the right to be taxed out of it..............
For those with a rugged live-and-let-live constitution/mentality, the wild west is great. Keith continually slams Phoenix (maybe someone here wasn't nice to him?), but I've lived here 17 years, have been able to make an excellent living here as an aerospace and telecom engineer, started my own company, have found beautiful places to camp in northern AZ, have climbed Mt. Humphreys, have hiked the Grand Canyon, and generally love this majestic state.Yeah, you need a good income to buy a house here, and you betcha the housing market sucks for someone who wants/needs to sell, but the more robust among us can live wherever we want and not have to whine about a "fake economy" all the time.Sounds a lot like "sour grapes" (the false denial of desire for something sought but not acquired; to denigrate and feign disdain for that which one could not attain).Ya couldn't make it Phx, Keith...others can. Too bad.
Anonymous said...I'd say Vegas but that's not a real city====Stupid comment. Just because it isn't to your liking doesn't make it any less real as a city. It's not for everyone but I've had some nice times there. It gets boring after you've seen a couple of shows, and then you go home. No biggie.
trashwacker said...Top three, (a la location,location,location) are:Phoenix,Phoenix,Phoenix,America's repository for dead-enders and desperados. A massive collection of phonies,grifters, dead-beats and scammers trying to live way beyond their means at the expense of societyand honest citizens.The housing tsunami is already flushing these cockroaches down the toilet of lost dreams.+++So, you've lived here?You talk like someone who is fragile and gullible, maybe got swindled by one of the many scams and con men...couldn't run with the big dogs.
Regarding slamming phoenix:Arizona is far and away in my book the most beautiful state in the US. Desert, mountains, blue skies, skiing, grand canyon, monument valley, the list goes on.I spent 10 great years in Arizona, and miss it.My beef with Phoenix is:1) fake REIC and call center based economy - hardly any real fortune 500 companies, with real jobs and real salaries. But if you're a conman and want to be a mortgage broker or realtor, come one down!2) REIC corrupted government. Skip Rimza was the worst mayor at the worst time and ruined a great canvas so that REIC could develop on the fringes. Scottsdale government is even worse3) The town got infested with posers and fakes, especially when the bubble hit. Fake people with fake jobs and massive debts flaunting fake wealth. The town changed dramatically around 2001 - 2003 and is getting worse4) Way too much retail. Every damn corner is a strip mall. Horrible urban planning. Horrible sprawl. 5) out of control illegal immigration. Nuff said.6) The housing bubble ruined the town. And hopefully the housing crash will give the town a good bath. I'm not sure if it can get back to where it was in the 90's which was pretty great, but it needs an enema7) Phoenix is not Arizona.
Phoenix is by far the number one bubble town. Palmdale CA and Victorville and Bakersfield are second cousins. Vegas is third. Riverside and Ventura County are fourth gen cousins. And the last bunch of wanna be assholes are all stuck together in dingle-berries hanging from my ass in Orange County CA. Especially in Garbage Grove.
Regarding the "live and let live" mentality of Phoenix that a pussy Anon posted:Sorry but it ain't true. Phoenix and especially the suburbs are a police state. Crime is a problem because the cops only care about making money on traffic enforcement. It now has a commie smoking ban like everywhere else. Taxes are ridiculous, in fact now that I have moved to CA I found out that CA and AZ corporate tax are the same rate. Plus my car insurance went down by $1,000 a year and my registration went down by $800 here in CA. And sales tax is lower in CA. So in the end my taxes are CHEAPER here. Here in Orange County you can get a handgun carry permit like you can in AZ (if you are an avid shooter and qualify), and you can actually carry everywhere once you have the permit, unlike AZ where carry is so restrictive (no carry in restaurants, etc) that you might as well leave your protection at home. Oh yeah and unless you're in north Glendale or certain parts of north-central Phoenix, the people are rude and pretentious there.Sorry but Phoenix sucks, that's why I left. When people say "Oh but Newport Beach is SOOO expensive" I say:- Phoenix is a ripoff for what you pay to live there. You don't get your money's worth at all.- Newport Beach is 4x as expensive but it's a bargain for what you get in terms of quality of life.You and all the rest of the bottom feeders and scam artist shysters can keep Phoenix and Vegas. I'm glad to see that the rejects have left CA in favor of those towns and no longer live here among us normal people.www.scottsdale-sucks.com
What's up with these "defenders of Las Vegas" clowns trolling this blog all the time. LOLMy favorite comment: "a libertarian, do what you want to do (environment)"Dude you are smoking crack. First of all, Vegas is like a police state with high crime and cowboy cops with a "everyone's a suspect" mentality swarming all over the city looking for perps.Everytime there's an election you idiots vote to raise taxes to pay for more cops to fight crime that has done nothing but let crime spiral out of control. The end result is a cop at every intersection waiting to ticket me. It won't matter anyway as they won't be able to control the mayhem that will start as housing crashes and foreclosures mount (Vegas #1 in foreclosures and pulling away...).Second, every house built is located in a HOA-militarized zone. I have a friend who works for one of the many HOA management companies, talk about pure evil. $2,000 for a fine because Embarq left a cone in front of the house. $1,500 for a weed.It's funny because she's gotten the "evil" bug recently, telling me as she levies ridiculous fines "those f*in homeowners deserve it". Homeowners paying other companies to police themselves to death... LOL. My friend, that's authoritarian, not libertarian.The only people defending Las Vegas are the morons who moved there and ruined it.
Re: Phoenix-Anon said:"So, you've lived here?You talk like someone who is fragile and gullible, maybe got swindled by one of the many scams and con men...couldn't run with the big dogs.April 20, 2007 5:13 PM Only losers live/lived in Phoenix...I was born, raised and work in Manhattan the most competetive market in the US and one of the top in the world, and I have "top dogs" for breakfast, as you're spanking the monkey trying to impress some second-rate manager/clerk in some bland Phoenix office park sweatbox.Shills, W-2 grinders and mickey-mouse engineers on a budget only fool themselves that Phoenix is not a shithole for the lost American nomads/desperados.
joe logic is seriously deranged
I remember joe logic went anti-HOA apeshit a while ago on HP, I see he's back. Sounds to me like you are upset that the HOA said your 7 pickup trucks (of which only 2 run) parked on the front lawn had to go.I love HOAs, would never live in a non-HOA community again precisely to make sure redneck trash like you are kept out. Obviously you have no clue what communism is. Comparing HOAs to communism insults the memory of the millions of people who suffered at the hands of communists. Getting fined for not cutting your lawn and being sent to a labor camp....yeah same fucking thing.Idiot.
Why or why do all the dead-enders, last-chancers, bottom-feeding scum wind up in Phoenix, AZ. looking for a "new beginning"?No wonder this is the human cesspool of America.The Horror..the trash..the Horror!AZ RepublicThe Rev. Ted Haggard moved Wednesday from his longtime home in Colorado Springs to Phoenix, where the disgraced minister will join the same church that helped fallen televangelist Jim Bakker.Haggard, 50, resigned as president of the National Association of Evangelicals last year, after a former male prostitute alleged a three-year cash-for-sex relationship. The man also said he saw Haggard use methamphetamine. Haggard confessed to undisclosed "sexual immorality" and said he bought meth but never used it.As part of his severance package from New Life Church, a 14,000-member congregation he started in his basement, Haggard agreed to leave Colorado Springs, a city he helped make an evangelical center.advertisement"When he moved out of town today, there was a kind of relief on the part of the church that life can get back to normal," said the Rev. H.B. London, one of three ministers overseeing what has been called Haggard's "restoration." "For the Haggards, it is the beginning of a huge new chapter. It's a brand new start for them, the beginning of a new beginning."Before his fall, Haggard was an emerging voice in evangelical politics. He took part in White House conference calls and fought to broaden the movement's agenda to include environmental issues.In Phoenix, Haggard plans to pursue a graduate degree in counseling at an area university, said London, who heads an outreach effort for pastors through Focus on the Family, the Colorado Springs-based conservative Christian group. London was not sure where Haggard would be studying. The Haggards and two of their children - another three are grown - are expected to live in a home made available by a supporter.Ted and Gayle Haggard have ties to Phoenix. The couple spent three weeks at secular treatment center in the area after the scandal broke. And the Pentecostal church they will attend, Phoenix First Assembly of God, is led by the Rev. Tommy Barnett, another member of Haggard's restoration team.Bakker, the televangelist, found refuge at Barnett's church after being released from federal prison for bilking supporters of $158 million. He volunteered at a Los Angeles church mission run by Barnett's son.London said he believes Barnett told his congregation Sunday that Haggard would be joining them. Barnett and officials at his church did not return calls seeking comment.Haggard faces a test in going from being on the pulpit to becoming just another face in the pews, London said."Once you were in charge of a megachurch and a mega-staff and making mega-decisions, now your main decision is where you're going to school, where to eat and what you're going to do on your day off," London said.The Rev. Mike Ware, a member of a separate panel of pastors that investigated the claims against Haggard, said: "We've all been in agreement that Ted should have a fresh start, gain some fresh perspective, and it's very difficult for them to get the kind of healing they need staying in Colorado Springs."Ware said Haggard is continuing to receive counseling, which officials said will include an exploration of his sexuality. Haggard has told his advisers he does not believe he's gay.As part of a severance package that will pay Haggard through 2007, Haggard agreed not only to leave town but to refrain from discussing the scandal publicly. He did not return messages Wednesday. Haggard's most recent annual salary was about $138,000, benefits excluded.His former congregation has felt the sting of the scandal. Since Haggard's fall, attendance has fallen 20 percent and giving has dropped 10 percent, said Rob Brendle, an associate pastor. As a result of the decline, the church laid off 44 employees, or 12 percent of its work force.
trashwacker,You sound like one of those ultra homophobes that turns out is secretly gay. Hating a city or residents of city - no matter what city - with such passion means one of two things; you secretoy love Phoenix but are pissed off you can't afford to live there or something really bad happened to you in Phoenix, maybe a repressed memory came back.Either way you sound like a tool.
"I love HOAs, would never live in a non-HOA community again precisely to make sure redneck trash like you are kept out."Spoken like a true Soccer-HO-Mom...I grew up in So Cal, and remember have seen what these HOAs really end-up becoming over-priced, over-regulated Stepford-esque communities that have about as much culture as a strip-mall (which is their retail equivalent)."Obviously you have no clue what communism is."You obviously suffer from diminished vocabulary skills, since you don't know there's a HUGE difference between communism & authoritarianism LOLI find most people that love HOAs to be namby pamby wimps that want the hall monitor to save them.Unfortunately, cronyism/nepotism usually rules the roost with HOAs, so outsiders are punished, if not for corruption fee extraction scenarios, then just to appease the schadenfreude of the repugnant, rapicious asshats on the HOA clubhouse.
Honolulu, Hawaii. Prices are way out of whack.
Yeah I remember you too.. you are the anono-pussy who was bragging about you and your band of HOA-terrorists shaking down an old man Vietnam vet for putting up his flag on the 4th. And you're talking to me about communism when you've the pitiful loser here harassing someone who defending his country. LOLTalk about deranged... I've never seen someone respond so fast to others' comments on this blog before (you don't fool me by posting several times pretending to be different people - you're the same as*hole). I mean, how do you find all that time between spanking your meat to your bylaws and just being an as*hole in general?I'm happy where I live, thanks for asking. See where I live is not full of scum-sucking losers who busted out wherever they lived so they moved to Vegas, so we don't need militant HOA regulations. And I never used the word 'communism' in my post.. learn to read you f*ckin troll.
$1500 fine for a weed...BULLSHIT. Absolute bullshit. HOAs can be a little nutty, but you are lying through your teeth.
You sound like one of those ultra homophobes that turns out is secretly gay. Hating a city or residents of city - no matter what city - with such passion means one of two things; you secretoy love Phoenix but are pissed off you can't afford to live there or something really bad happened to you in Phoenix, maybe a repressed memory came back.Actually, YOU sound like a dumbass, you anon jerkoff ... suggesting that someone who lives in MANHATTAN cannot afford bargain-basement Phoenix?? LOL!!!!! The only reason anyone moves to Phoenix in the first place is because it's CHEAP!!I can tell you that something bad happened to me while in Arizona ... it's called LIVING THERE. And anyone with a brain moved out after the plastic botox-infected Real Estate Cult freakshow took the town over.www.scottsdale-sucks.com
1) Phoenix2) Las Vegas3) Miami area4) Parts of San Diego and OC5) Inland Empire, and exurbs of Los Angeles. 6) Sacramento#1,2,3 because of rampant over-building and investor/flippers.#4, #5, #6 because of lower-wage people stretching to get big houses in exurbs far away from decent paying jobs. I verify this to some extent by looking at how many pages of listings there are "for sale" in Craigslist for each of these locales.
what do ghetto basement apartment renters know about HOAs? stick to talking about subjects you know well like cutting coupons, riding the bus, driving 23 year old cars....the regular stuff for $8.25 an hour employees
hey joe logic are you a vet? Probably were judging by the absolute lack of thought process in that little brain of yours. John Kerry got that one right, only the uneducated and stupid end up in the military.
New York and DC will not be immune. No where in the country will be immune! To determine the target price, take the price at year 2000 and add 20% - done.
why not take the 1933 price or 100% minus 9o% and make it ten times worse, as we are not in a manufacturing boom period
BEND, OR.. Prices doubled and tripled in the past 4 years... now, gee, a 4 sale sign on each and every block, some with up to 6 signs... 70K population, and 5K listings...Its going to get very ugly... but this is only the tip of the iceberg..IF and I do say IF you can sell...DO SELL, squirel it away and hold on. I have done just this, and I had been a Realtor for 10 years, but I quit the RE Business 2 years ago when I could no longer look myself in the eye..and I have now gone into a low profile CASH business... May God have mercy on us all, for we now reap what we have sown.
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