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A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
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30 comments:
Casey is funnier than that guy, with out even trying to be!
Most debt zombies do not know realize it yet, but it will be sinking in soon.
This my friends is what comedy is supposed to be about! Great delivery, excellent topic choice.
How many times has this come up at a party and you're thinking to yourself (as a long time "loanowner") this guy has to be a real freaking bootcamp! Anyone that's been saddled with mortgage payments for 10 years + (and still has the exact same original balance) sure as hell ain't bragging about it!
Do "I" rent or own!?! Well both actually. I own all my DVD's and "rent" beer. Sometimes I rent stocks. Any MORE stupid questions?
DinOR
Another Point of View.
iw
From Daily Wealth
I’m Buying a House Here as Soon
as I Can
By Tom Dyson
On Friday, I met up with a realtor in Fernandina Beach, a small seaside community on the northeast coast of Florida. We met at his office...
"This time last year, 1,100 properties were listed for sale. Now it's over 1,900," he told me, logging into his database. "But prices on the island are holding up well... it's worse off the island. Prices have fallen about 15%."
When I'm assessing value in a property market, I always study the bottom end of the market. Cheap houses are more standardized... the market is deeper... and prices don't jump around so much.
I asked the realtor to show me only houses on sale for less than $200,000. He looked dubious, but his system pulled up seven listings. "Last year," he said, "I probably would've gotten zero."
He printed off the list of houses and ushered me outside to his metallic gold SUV…
The median price of coastal property in Florida has risen at least 35% in each of the last four years. I bet Miami's skyline features more construction cranes than any other city in the developed world. Florida coastal property is the undisputed epicenter of America's real estate boom. When people talk about property bubbles, they talk about Florida.
Six months ago, the market turned. Stories of forfeited deposits, cancelled projects, and lawsuits started appearing in the press. They took down the "condo-flip" website, where speculators traded preconstruction condos online. Here in Fernandina Beach, I started to see For Sale signs all along the beach road. I live in a housing complex near the ocean. There are 48 units in my complex. Right now, seven are for sale, including the one I rent.
The realtor took me into three houses and drove me by four more. I expected to find only bombed out shacks in my price range. I was totally wrong. Take the first house we saw for example.
Listed for $189,000, it had three bedrooms and two bathrooms. Total floor space was 1,200 square feet. It was built two years ago, so it still looked new and fresh. It had a screened back porch and a one-car garage. The backyard was 200 square feet, closed in by a fence.
The location wasn't great. The realtor described it as a "blue-collar" neighborhood, but the surrounding houses looked pretty good. It was only a mile or so from the ocean. The school was across the street, and the main tourist drag through town was just a few blocks walk away.
"It's been on the market for six months already," said the realtor, "so you've probably got some room in the price. Also, they'll probably pay closing costs for you."
All this tells me the market is anything but overvalued.
All the noise about bubbles and the Chicken-Little headlines about subprime lenders are simply distractions.
When you consider 30-year fixed mortgage rates at 5.75%, the beautiful Florida weather and nearby ocean, the weak dollar and its relentless inflation, the gargantuan property bubbles in Europe, and the opportunity to live in the richest, safest, country in the world, where I know no one is going to seize my land, the conclusion is obvious.
I'm going to buy a house here as soon as I can.
Good investing,
Tom
don't spaz just posting an interesting 'counter point'.
I don't know. Jacksonville is a poor redneck cousin of Miami and S. Florida. A retarded inbred second cousin to Naples and SW Florida.
Prices there are alot higher.
I live in Georgia...you can buy a nice house (brick, w/ garage) on an acre of land for $100/sq foot. Starter shacks like the ones in San Diego selling for 700K are about 80-120K here.
So some places in flyover country the bubble missed.
Besides, what "beach" is there in Jacksonville? Not exactly known as a tourist mecca.
you'll do fine flyingmunky. you'll just be in that house for a long time. maybe that's what you want. if so good on you!
Yea, thats why in Tucson, AZ you see contractors beating on doors in neighborhoods and leaving flyers basically begging for work. Never used to see this until the past month or two. Hmmm, wonder why?
Besides, what "beach" is there in Jacksonville? Not exactly known as a tourist mecca.
That's exactly right and Fernandina Beach is the biggest redneck beach of them all. It's white trash and awful. There are houses literally 50 feet from the ocean that are boarded up shacks. It's so bad that even the people of Jacksonville consider it an overly redneck town (which is saying something) Don’t get me wrong, Fernandina Beach is a fun little beach town if you want to slum-it, but it is very redneck and trashy.
This video below tells us all !!!
Fires, foreclosures, high taxes plague NT neighborhood
April 4th, 2007
With stunning views, abundant trees and manmade lakes, there’s hardly a prettier place in North Texas than Lake Ridge. On the southwest edge of Cedar Hill, the development’s custom homes on oversized lots make a clear statement of prosperity.
http://www.wfaa.com/video/wfaageneral-index.html?nvid=133491&shu=1
ROCHESTER, NY
Area's home sales hit soft spot
6 percent drop for March breaks 2007 momentum
Mary Chao
Staff writer
Post Comment:
'soft spot' yea right!
(April 6, 2007) — After two months of double-digit gains, area home sales fell almost 6 percent in March, the Greater Rochester Association of Realtors said Thursday, raising fresh questions about the real estate market's direction.
There were 893 closings during the month, down from 947 in March 2006. Prices rose, though, with a median sale price of $109,900 vs. $100,000 a year earlier.
The number of houses listed for sale across the region dropped 3.6 percent in March. And the number of purchase offers accepted in March slid almost 17 percent from a year earlier.
The market has zig-zagged since August, slumping and then rebounding. The latest figures indicate that the market is more balanced than it had been last fall, favoring neither buyers nor sellers, said Sam Morreale of Nothnagle Realtors.
Because the number of closings generally is based on purchase offers that were accepted two months earlier, some brokers said March's downturn could have been weather-related, citing a wintry January.
"Weather and interest rates affect home sales here," Morreale said.
Houses in good condition and priced appropriately are still selling quickly, Morreale said. "There's a brisk market for those, but there are not as many of them."
March may be an off month, said John Antetomaso, Greater Rochester Association of Realtors president. "The last few weeks have been tremendous."
you'll do fine flyingmunky.
_____________
Thank you. I did not buy the condo at the beach in the story above, I bought a $180,000.00 condo downtown Orlando for $148,000.00 from a FB at peak after I sold, at peak and made $35,000 cash for a house I had for 6 months. Only owe $99,000, no crazy landlord and not going anywhere.
I am still a bubble believer, and am hunkered down for the long haul.
My home can withstand 145 mph winds and insurance is included in the HOA.
Same unit 1/2 mile downtown, $300,000.00. I should be okay as I I did not buy a McMansion, and so can't loose as much relatively speaking.
It is just a place to hang my hat, but in a mini pocket boom area.
We shall see.
My next big purchase is a boat so I can live a board. I plan to buy at the bottom, according to Mish and Keith and HPers call.
Small city house, big boat. Yea!
Catch the falling knife?
Are you sure you'll get the handle?
Or would it be easier to watch it fall a bit longer and then safely pick it up off the floor........along with ten other knives on the floor.
Thanks for the thought-provoking post, monkeywarrior
That cat is funny. When he does start making some money, I hope he remembers to always stay as cool as he is now.
"American consumers are by, and large, managing debt well."
A great demonstration of the devolution of witticism
"It's been on the market for six months already," said the realtor, "so you've probably got some room in the price. Also, they'll probably pay closing costs for you."
All this tells me the market is anything but overvalued.
Huh???
Everything you found points to the market being overvalued. Why would you be able to negotiate price and closing costs if it were not overvalued?
FMW, I don't agree with this guys logic at all.
I guess he didn't say what his offer on one of those properties would be so that might change things a bit. Like if he lowballs at a 50% reduction off asking price perhaps that would be okay.
But then again, how does he really know the price is right when he doesn't know anything about average rents and average incomes? These are fundamentals that should go into your decision if you think you're an 'investor'.
It is suckers like this guy who are keeping prices from dropping faster than they already have. But drop they will.
Are you sure you'll get the handle?
_____________
No, I am not. Not at all.
I went in with my eyes open, because I have been an HPer since Oct. 05. HPers know this story, so to them skip this post.
That said, If the dollar is going down, and I think it is, I shall be in good shape as far as this small amount of debt relative to the purchasing power of the dollar in the future. My mort. is $713.00 @ mo. 30 yr. fixed, who cares what is coming next year. Again, I am hunkered down. What is the dif between your savings depreciating and/or your home devaluing. You can not live in your savings.
The loss is relative, in a my home, for example @ $180,000.00, going down to say 50% to $90,000.00 I still have only lost my DP and I do not owe more than it is worth. If I had bought a $250,000.00 home at 125% of value or HELOC'ed my dead equity to above the appraised value, then that is some serious money lost and the I am a FB who has no where to LIVE!!!!
I have a HOME, new everything (no granite counter tops, can't bleach it, don't want high maintenance), gated, and I may lose my down payment/my 'dead equity' (for a time), but I hate the thought of moving again or another crazy landlord more. I reckon my debt will get lighter as the USD tanks.
Everything else is paid for!!!
Ha, my new car gets 40 mpg and my utility bill is $60.00 a month for a penthouse in the city. Sushi Bar and Great Restaurant/Bar right across the street.
Anyway, I will leave this place and my giant yacht to my children when I am gone, so no worries.
My condo is owned free and clear. I checked the tax records and it was sold for $27,000 dollars in 1997. It's assessed value is now $179,000.
Average rents for a one bedroom unit in this area were about 1100-1350 month.
Maybe I am a sucker for not selling out and waiting to see if prices will crash, I worry sometimes as the inventories of unsold homes continue to grow, most of those were the homes of my rich neighbors.
Then again there were a million Mexicans looking for paths across an unfenced border and they cannot fit more than about thirty Mexicans in your average sized house. I figure these people will need to live somewhere and they are not making new land.
"The backyard was 200 square feet, closed in by a fence."
200 sq. ft.! LMAO. Add a picnic table and a lawn chair and your about out of space. Wonderful bargain.
It is suckers like this guy who are keeping prices from dropping faster than they already have. But drop they will.
__________
Drop they have already. In my building my floor plan is available for 135 which is a 2004 price, for sale by a fliptard realtor.
Look out below.
Those million janitors and fruitpickers won't be able to afford a $300K house - unless they move 15 people in there next door to you. What will be the property value of your house when there are junked out El Caminos and soiled mattresses sitting out on the lawns of the houses on your street?
Check out this Craigslist ad. It seems like a good way to get sellers and potential buyers to think about what they should be doing... Selling fast and buying low. We should all post ads just like it: http://inlandempire.craigslist.org/rfs/308025908.html
I like this CraigsList ad! Most people don't know it yet, but it's true. I really do believe this RE downturn will be the worst since the great depression.
I think prices will skip a decade and drop down to 1980's levels. I know this is hard to believe because it has never happened...it will happen because the USA has only service oriented jobs (retail)and we outsourced all our manufacturing and paper pushing jobs to other parts of the world.
Even back in the 1990's house prices were too high-but now with the cost of insurance, taxes and maintance, this will squeeze homeowners dry.
Watch out below.
That Craigslist ad is a good start. 70% still seems too high for me though.
BWA HA HA HA!!
It's funny ciz it's true. Renters are losers. End of story.
Hey HPers,
If you are all so freking sure that there is a crash coming, I assume you are all heavily invested in the housing futures market based on the Case-Shiller Index right?
I mean shit it's like knowing the lottery numbers ahead of time for you guys. You all have hundreds of thousands in cash and you know absolutely without hesitation that housing will tank.
If you're not, why not?
"Then again there were a million Mexicans looking for paths across an unfenced border and they cannot fit more than about thirty Mexicans in your average sized house. I figure these people will need to live somewhere and they are not making new land"
Would you please give the "they are not making new land" cliche a rest!
"My condo is owned free and clear. I checked the tax records and it was sold for $27,000 dollars in 1997. It's assessed value is now $179,000.
Average rents for a one bedroom unit in this area were about 1100-1350 month. "
A 600% increase in just 10 years is not a healthy sign and it's very unusual even for this bubble. Also, the rents don't match the condo prices.
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