March 05, 2007

The Great Unwinding

The subprime meltdown lit the fuse, and even I don't know exactly how this plays out, or when or how the worldwide crash goes down. But I do think Monday will be another wild day in the markets, especially the lenders. Black Monday 2 anyone?


With the PPT and trading curbs though, it's almost impossible to have a good old fashioned stock market crash these days. So maybe this takes months and years instead.

But rest assured, crash we will. After the greatest debt bubble, housing bubble, asset bubble, credit bubble, leverage bubble, derivatives bubble, cash-out HELOC bubble, mortgage fraud bubble, hedge fund bubble and deficit spending bubble the world has ever seen, the pop will be historic. And it's not just housing values that will collapse, no sir.

Everything will collapse. During any unwinding, cash becomes king, and this is the mother of all unwindings. Just make sure it's the right cash (hint: not US$).

The Great Unwinding is here my friends. Are you ready?

By week's end, some analysts were saying that the 5 percent decline in stock prices was the natural "correction" the market needed after a year-long rally that would resume again soon.

But others saw last week's market turmoil as the beginning of a repricing of risk by global financial markets.

Because of the glut of investment capital from around the world chasing good investments, investors have gradually been forced to accept lower and lower returns for the risks they are willing to take. And that lower price for risk manifests itself in higher prices for everything from stocks and bonds to real estate and oil futures.

Now, some investors have concluded that those risks have been too heavily discounted. The unwinding of the yen carry trade was one sign. Another was the sharp increase in the price for investors to insure themselves against default on all sorts of bonds, which is set on the credit-default swaps market. Insurance on bonds backed by risky subprime mortgages got the most attention.

But nearly as dramatic was the increase in the cost to insure the debt of some of Wall Street's top investment houses, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch.

And should this dramatic repricing of risk spread to other markets, such as junk bonds or commercial real estate or emerging-market debt, last week's sell-off will be remembered not as a one-time event, but as the beginning of a long and nasty downturn in global financial markets.

24 comments:

Anonymous said...

here kitty kitty

Anonymous said...

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Market%20Analysis/503820/

Japanese Stock Market Plunges On Stronger Yen And US Economic Concerns, Led By Exporters

Sunday, March 04, 2007; Posted: 10:10 PM
(RTTNews) - The stock market in Tokyo, Japan, declined more than 2% on Monday morning led by exporters, on stronger local currency against the US dollar and weaker closing in US market on Friday. Speculations on the vulnerability of US growth gripped the investors after the Q4 GDP data has been revised downwards to 2.2% from the previous expectation of 3.5% a month earlier.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 Index is presently trading at 16,842.32, down 375.61 points, or 2.18%, while the broader TOPIX Index is down 38.50 points, at 1,683.09.

Anonymous said...

How much is, Lock Limit Down, for thr DOW?

Anonymous said...

http://www.slate.com/id/2160973/

"Robert Toll, CEO of high-end home builder Toll Brothers, told the New York Times in 2005 that his company, which had enjoyed astonishing growth for more than a decade, would grow by 20 percent annually in 2006 and 2007, and then go for 15 percent annual growth. Yet in virtually every quarter since the article appeared, Toll has lowered expectations, called a bottom—and then lowered expectations again. In February 2006, Toll Brothers projected it would deliver between 9,200 and 9,900 McMansions for the fiscal year ending October 2006, down from the previous projection of 9,500 to 10,200. But Toll reduced its expected deliveries in May and again in August and wound up delivering 8,787 for the whole year. But bitter experience hasn't made Toll any better at calling the bottom. In November 2006, the company said it expected to deliver between 6,300 and 7,300 homes for fiscal 2007, down from the prior prediction of 7,000 to 8,000 deliveries. By February, Toll said it expected to deliver only 6,000 to 7,000 homes. And it's doubtful Toll has successfully called the bottom now. The Census Bureau data on new housing sales for January, released earlier this week, showed a whopping fall of 20 percent from the year-ago level, and down 16.6 percent from December."

ty said...

National City sold its subprime business in September.
Now its Mortgage HQ in Dayton
Ohio has announced that it is
moving mortgage jobs to India.
(not 'Indiana')

Turn off the sitcoms.
Learn what makes things work.
(math, electro, infosci, health,
chem-bio, economics, cooking with
beans, car-pooling, self-defense,
Mandarin, roof repair, edible
plants …)
Start yesterday, or sooner.

Professional Economist said...

The idea that there will be widespread subprime lender collapses, or a continued decline in global stock markets, is just chicken little-style alarmism. After last week’s mild correction, we should see a continued rise in most markets. These gains, both in housing prices and stock prices, are structural and permanent. I suspect the worst we will see could be a permanently high plateau.

Mark in San Diego said...

Keith - don't you ever sleep??. . .I guess I also need to get up early Pacific time to watch the meltdown in real time - considering the Asia meltdown right now, looks like we plunge another few hundred point here in USA tomorrow. . .then HSBC announces bad news in London soon. . .then
Wells, WaMu, BofA, etc. etc. . . 1929 here we come - of course HP readers and contributors knew this a year ago.

Anonymous said...

NIKKEI 16,590.80 -627.13 -3.64%

Pitsa

Anonymous said...

And to think secretary Paulsen was just dispatched to Japan, asap. The former head of Goldman Sachs now with the keys to the Treasury on the road during a market meltdown. Is he going to "open the books" to convince foreigners to hold on?

Anonymous said...

FMW Where are you???

Love reading your posts!

Sincerely, every real guy here (which are few)

decaffeinated said...

The foreign markets are on a selling rampage right now. Head on over to kitco.com and watch gold and silver prices. They're down right now and that's before the big boys (aka NY traders) have their say in another 7 hours. One thing I've learned this year (and during last year's correction) is that when a correction starts, the only safe haven is cash--traders will sell everything, including commodities.

Anonymous said...

Pretty much all Asian/South Asian markets are taking a beating now. Mondya morning. In a few hours its going to be Dow's turn, I would say about 3% for monday

Anonymous said...

This here is the funniest shit i've read in a while...

"It's real easy. Just show a few houses. Six percent. It's real easy. Just show a few houses. Six percent." She's midway through her third or fourth repetition of the chant when the door to the four-bedroom, two-bathroom house finally opens.

Rest of the story....

http://tinyurl.com/234n62

Anonymous said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=atOHgqVo_e9g&refer=japan

Japan Stocks Fall by the Most in Almost 9 Months

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks dropped by the most in almost nine months, wiping out more than $166 billion in share value, on concern a slide in stock markets worldwide will continue. Toyota Motor Corp. and Nippon Steel Corp. led losses.

U.S. stocks had the worst drop since January 2003 last week and the Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index slid for a fourth day, extending its 3.5 percent fall last week.

``The drop in U.S. stocks last week and in Asian markets this afternoon signaled investors the slide in global equities will be prolonged,'' said Yoshihisa Okamoto, who helps oversee $1.9 billion in assets at Fuji Investment Management Co. in Tokyo. ``That's contrary to our initial forecast it would be temporary.''

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 575.68, or 3.3 percent, to 16,642.25. The broader Topix index fell 58.88, or 3.4 percent, to 1662.71. Both measures slid by the most since June, 13 2006, have now erased their gains for the year so far. The Topix has lost 1.1 percent this year, and the Nikkei has now retreated 3.4 percent.

Anonymous said...

World blood bath inprocess man the markets are scared. SELL NOW - really I'm not kidding.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

FMW Where are you???

Love reading your posts!

++++++++++++++++++

Thank you.

Ex-Anon said...

So many market "Gurus" all in one blog. Amazing. I would think that you guys would be busy working for the heavy hitters on Wall St. telling them how to invest and read into the market. Oh wait! I forgot, y'all are just arm chair market watchers. Face it, you see the market in a downward trend and nothing else. None of us, myself included knows where it is going or landing. Stop calling for the end of humanity because you sound like fools!

Anonymous said...

>This here is the funniest shit i've read in a while...


NO, that is not funny. This looks like a good woman (though misguided) getting pummeled. That doesn't qualify as funny in my book.

sinis said...

Damn, that looks like my cat! Great pic by the way :)

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

World blood bath inprocess man the markets are scared. SELL NOW - really I'm not kidding.

March 05, 2007 11:53 AM


Bloodbath? How old are you? 1987 was a bloodbath. 1997 was a bloodbath. 2001 was a bloodbath. This is a scrape of the knee.

Rookies.

Dcydell said...

As I sit here watching, a little after 2pm EST, the MIGHTY DOW is up a cool dozen, showing all those Asian and European stocks what true wimps they are.

The MIGHTY DOW JONES 30 INDUSTRIALS is a beacon of light in the markets of panic. Great industrial corporations (McDonalds and Wal-Mart, just to name two) , corporations that provide abundant high paying jobs in cutting edge industries.

And if one corporation becomes sick, develops a terminal illness, we will simply replace it with a happy, healthy one. That way we can always show you a stat that proves the stock market always goes up in the long run, you weak kneed doom and gloomers.

Anonymous said...

Every time you masterbate God kills a kitten.

Anonymous said...

i'm not one usually to say I told you so but gold is plummeting just as I said it would.

How's everyone doing who bought throught the year, especially last week at $690? Don't say you didn't. You were all screaming about gold this and gold that last week so I know you took your own advice and loaded up on the yellow stuff.

Or do we not dare discuss such issues on HP? I mean in between the 1948th joke about realtors working at mcdonalds and the 3892nd comment about Casey's stupidity, can someone comment on the topic of plummeting gold prices?

Oh wait silly me, this is just a temporary dip. While the DOW's 5% drop last week is a precursor of a 50% drop, gold's 7% drop is a buying opportunity on its way to a 70% gain right?

Riiiiiigggghhttt.

Anonymous said...
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