March 05, 2007

FLASH: The Corrupt David Lereah attacks a fellow bubble blogger, continues with the lies and distortion. In response, HousingPANIC goes ballistic.

Here's the latest from The Corrupt David Lereah in Fortune magazine. This guy contradicts himself so much in the same interview, he must be either bipolar or crazy. Absolutely bizarre. I think he needs an intervention.

To David over at the davidlereahwatch and my fellow bubble bloggers - let's turn the heat up on this guy even more. The MSM must stop picking up this guy's BS as truth, he must be called out for what he is, and the NAR must be exposed.

The people of America (and the MSM) should see TCDL as the discredited hack that he is. "Lereah" should go down in American history as yet another Charles Ponzi, yet another Henry Blodgett, yet another snake oil salesman spreading lies and destruction for profit. And the perfect personification for a corrupt REIC and a pathetic and paranoid National Association of Realtors.




With his latest book, "All Real Estate is Local," due out in April, Fortune's Ellen Florian Kratz talked with Lereah about where the market is headed and how an angry blogger almost made his mother cry.

Even though the market contracted, 2006 still didn't bring the first yearly price drop since the National Association of Realtors started tracking the statistic in 1968.

Nope. It's amazing isn't it? People thought we'd get it because they thought the bubble was going to burst, but it never happened.

Do you think it will happen in 2007?

I don't because we're already seeing some parts of the real estate market picking up again. It looks like we've bottomed out. The worst was the fourth quarter of 2006.

There are a lot of good signs that the worst is over for housing.

So when it's all said and done, this contraction in housing is probably going to be the least severe contraction we've ever had, which is going to surprise a lot of people.

But many think we still have a long way to go.

If you look at local areas, that statement is true. California has a long way to go. I expect them to continue to experience pain all throughout this year. Southern Florida, same thing. Las Vegas is probably going to take a little longer to correct as well.

So they could decline into 2008 or longer?

They could. It's hard to tell right now. The real key for some of these areas that are having problems is prices. Prices need to come down to bring buyers back to the market.

So when we talk about real estate are you talking about local or national?

If you're talking about national, I think we've bottomed out, and it looks like we're going to come back very modestly throughout this year. And then in 2008, it will be back off to the races again in my opinion. But for a quarter of the country, that's not the case.

What do you predict for price appreciation for 2007?

My forecast is 1.4%

So you don't think California and Florida could bring the whole country down?

They'll bring themselves down. But will it bring the whole country down? No.
But Robert Shiller, author of "Irrational Exuberance," says we might have gotten so far out of whack that it has to come down no matter what.

I know. That's Bob. That's what he says. We disagree. He thinks psychology will play a major role here, and my view is no. We haven't strayed from the fundamentals.

Will problems with subprime have any effect on your sales numbers?

I think in some areas yes. Foreclosures are going to happen in California. You may see a rise in Las Vegas or Phoenix or Washington DC and parts of Florida, but it's not all over the country.

What surprised you about the boom?

The share of second home buying. It was 40 percent of the market in 2005. I was in shock.

You've been accused by the blog David Lereah Watch of being too bullish. What's it like to have an online antagonist?

At first I was kind of laughing. And now, it's enough already. This is a 26-year old that could not afford a townhouse and blamed it on the boom. And then he said, Who's talking about the boom and my name kept coming up. So I became Satan to him.

The worst was that my mother read one of those things, and she almost started crying.


Anonymous said...

New movie coming out "David Lereah must die" in theaters in April.

Anonymous said...

why haven't the NAR fired this guy already? Even Rummy got the can

David said...

Thank you Keith for supporting me as Mr. Lereah denounces me. I will continue criticizing David 'Paid' Shill' Lereah. Together we an other s will fight the REIC!

David Lereah Wacth

Anonymous said...




IT'S ....IT'S...David Lereah

Oh shit, emergency actions, red alert. ALL HAND ALL HANDS ON DECK

Anonymous said...

David, your mom was crying because she realized what kind of man she raised.

Anonymous said...

"Echoes from 2000 can also be heard in the continual false calls of a market bottom. The Web site Minyanville has documented the repeated bottom-calling attempts by National Association of Realtors economist David Lereah. Lereah believed the housing market had stabilized in March 2006 and again in April, June, October, and November.

Robert Toll, CEO of high-end home builder Toll Brothers, told the New York Times in 2005 that his company, which had enjoyed astonishing growth for more than a decade, would grow by 20 percent annually in 2006 and 2007, and then go for 15 percent annual growth. Yet in virtually every quarter since the article appeared, Toll has lowered expectations, called a bottom—and then lowered expectations again. In February 2006, Toll Brothers projected it would deliver between 9,200 and 9,900 McMansions for the fiscal year ending October 2006, down from the previous projection of 9,500 to 10,200. But Toll reduced its expected deliveries in May and again in August and wound up delivering 8,787 for the whole year. But bitter experience hasn't made Toll any better at calling the bottom. In November 2006, the company said it expected to deliver between 6,300 and 7,300 homes for fiscal 2007, down from the prior prediction of 7,000 to 8,000 deliveries. By February, Toll said it expected to deliver only 6,000 to 7,000 homes. And it's doubtful Toll has successfully called the bottom now. The Census Bureau data on new housing sales for January, released earlier this week, showed a whopping fall of 20 percent from the year-ago level, and down 16.6 percent from December."


Anonymous said...

Good gawd, trying to make sense out of that guy's non-logic in the article makes one feel like Linda Blair's character must have felt after one of those head-spinning episodes in her most famous horror movie.

Frank said...

"We haven't strayed from the fundamentals"

Whoa!!!!! Is this guy smoking crack? Never before in history has so much buying taken place with such weak fundamentals as in 2005-2006!!!

veritas_faust said...

I suppose Hitler's mother would have cried too if she saw what he became.

OK, unfair comparison.

How about Ted Haggard's mom? Or Jimmy Swaggart's?

Anonymous said...

David Lereah,

I'm A gay white male D&D free, would like to have you for a night, please call me 565-555-1212.

karma-ran-over-dogma said...

the shills in positions of authority have to understand they cannot spew w/ immunity. TCDL may be starting to understand...

The Thinker said...

I think it is good that blogs like this one call attention to shills like David Lereah. However, the attack should not be so personal.

We all know that the sales associates at those big box stores don't know what they are talking about, make up facts and will say anything to make the sale. We may not like them, we may ignore them but we do not despise them.

David Lereah is also a sales associate, and we must look at him from that point of view. The reason this blog's message is so important is because Mr. Lereah doesent hold himself out to be a sales associate, he holds himself out as an economist, a trained professional whose opinions should be based on the facts.

It is one thing to recognize that he is a sales person representing his employer, the National Association of Realtors. He is trying to sell the churning of real estate from one owner to the next. His opinions will therefore be designed to make people feel more comfortable about buying and selling their homes.

People should always look carefully at who is doing the talking and what their motivations are. This is part of being a good consumer. However, we need not make this too personal. He is, after all, just doing his job and representing his employer to the best of his ability. Can we ease off the personal attacks then and just recognize that he is not paid to help us, he is payed to sell a product and to make that product look good.

Anonymous said...

awww, that's too bad, made mommy cry.....awww, poor pooky.

Anonymous said...

Does anyone else think that the "my mother read one of those things" comment was thrown out for the emotional affect? or was it true that she "almost started to cry?"

Anonymous said...

He didn't get fired because in America we avoid the brutal facts in favor of saying something that people want to hear regardless if it's true or not.

Anonymous said...

I think TCDL's mom was crying out of shame and sense of failure as a mother.

Schmoe, Joe said...

Lereah might be correct...the market in the mid-South is still moving. Upper end homeowners trying to get rich are getting stuck, but reasonably priced upper end homes are SELLING. Our average is $170k an upper end home would be over $600k. Some of the homes that aren't selling are the folks that paid $500k 3 years ago and are trying to get $1 million. That ain't happening.

Anonymous said...

grow a dick mama's boy.

Guy Daley said...

Does Lereah have any shame?

It works like this, the more money you make, the less shame, scruples, morals you have.

Its a very simple equation actually.

Also, since there is no jeopardy of going to jail, you can cheerlead as much as you want. As long as the checks continue to flow, scruples and morality don't factor into the equation.

Anonymous said...

Market up higher - all is well in the US so stop being chicken littles.

Anonymous said...
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Anonymous said...

David Lereah has a tatoo of a house in the small of his back.

Anonymous said...

My home is FSBO! I won't cooperate with realtors or other buyer agent scum. The realtors in my area are very effective in keeping buyers away and trashing my house to their customers. I would rather die than give my money to a realtor.

David Lereah' wife said...

David Lereah is great in bed, OK now leave him alone!

Anonymous said...

I can't wait to buy his book, I'm putting it next to the Bible, and all the other great works.

Anonymous said...

Crock O'Shiite.

brokersleaveyoubroke said...

Another lame reporter throwing softballs. When he said we'd reached a bottom why didn't she ask him about the dozen or so bottoms he's called in the last year. She didn't ask how we could be at bottom when over two million homeowners face forclosure this year. She didn't ask who will buy the record high inventory of homes for sale now that the easy lending has stopped. New federal lending guidelines mean that 40% of people that got a mortgage last year could not qualify for the same mortgage this year. No more liars loans and now you have to qualify for an ARM based on the adjusted interest rate, not the teaser rate. With forclosures going through the roof, record high inventory and tighter lending standards, how on earth can anybody but an idiot or a liar say we're at bottom?

ty said...

Dark side of boom: Shoddy work.
Money Mag.)
…At the peak of the recent housing
boom, home buyers scooped up a
million newly built homes every
year while homeowners poured more
than $200 Billion into renovations.
But now stories of shifting soil,
leaky roofs, damaged stucco, and
other construction defects abound.

…the building frenzy also opened
the door ...shady contractors and
untested products.
…Document problems with photos and
detailed notes. Record [all], from
conversations with your builder or
contractor to the exact time [and
weather when the problem appeared].
// Full Stop. //

"First Amendment Handbook" 2003
… Of the 50 states, 38, as well as
DC, allow you to record a conver-
sation to which you are a party
without informing the other parties
you are doing so. Federal wiretap
statutes also permit one-party-
consent recording of telephone
conversations in 'most' [cases].fn1

[ *Twelve states OUTLAW such*:
California, Connecticut, Florida,
Illinois, Maryland, Mass., Mich.,
Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Washington. fn2]
[Ask your legislatures to allow it;
it's an important serf weapon.]
// Full Stop. //

DO NOT trust me on this comment:
If there is 'sufficient' cause to
believe that a serious crime will
be evidenced by a secret recording,
then you may do so in any State.

Anonymous said...

TCDL is supposed to be an economist. The basic concept in economics is supply and demand. If he was shocked about second home buying in 2005 why didn't he say something. He has been denying a housing bubble from the word go.

We now have a huge oversupply of overpriced homes and more to come through more building and foreclosures. His buddy AG unconsiously lowered interest rates to rock bottom which fueled the price run up for people who couldn't afford them.

Add easy street lending by banks forever trying to get people into homes with a mortgage and a HELOC and you have meltdown.

The only real solution is for sellers and builders to drastically reduce prices so these homes can be sold and people can start taking care of them and pay the real estate taxes to fund the utilities, roads etc.

Anonymous said...

You are too hard on this guy. He's doing his job which is to urge people to buy homes. What's he supposed to say, anyone buying a home today is a fool? How long do you think it would be before he'd be fired..1, 3, or 5 minutes?

bearmaster said...

David Lereah can't see beyond the end of the tip of his nose. He says the California and Florida markets can't tip the country over. That's the standard bubble denialist strategy, try to minimize the problem and say it is "contained".

Here's a guy who thinks it could take as little as a 4% rate in foreclosures to topple the whole house of cards:

Charles Hugh Smith: Can 4% of homeowners sink the entire market?

Anonymous said...
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Anonymous said...

I'm confused HP renters. How can you blame David Lereah for all this. I was under the impression Bush was responsible. No wait illegals are to blame. No hold on, baby boomers. No wait, Gen Xers. No damn it I forgot all about the Chinese. Fuck wait, totally forgot about the Jews, they're behind it all in conjunction with the new world order.

So unless Lereah is at the same time 35 and 55 years old and a card carrying member of the NOW as well as an illegal Jewish immigrant from China, he's innocent.

Anonymous said...
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Frank said...

It's easy to say "he's just a salesman doing his job" but it's different for a licensed real estate agent. Just like stockbrokers or insurance agents, they have a legal fiduciary obligation to keep their clients' best interests in mind. (I own an insurance agency, hence I had to learn all that legal mumbo-jumbo to get licensed as the owner.)

And if anyone is to blame for the bubble, in the end it's the homedebtors' faults. It's easy to point to Bush or Greenspan or the NAR or the mortgage peddlers but at the end of the day, nobody put a gun to the homedebtors' heads and forced them to "buy" homes at inflated prices with shady loans. Their excuses are their own.

Anonymous said...

Hilarious. Criticize the housing bubble and they all screech that it's because you can't afford it (true, unless you're an illegal immigrant, unemployed loser with no savings, or other "qualified buyer"). Criticize women and they all screech that it's because you can't get laid. Either way it's like debating a bot.

Anonymous said...

From the same Slate article mentioned earlier, it said that David Leareah wrote a book in 2000 titled, "The Rules for Growing Rich : Making Money in the New Information Economy."
So fiting.

Anonymous said...

Fortune Magazine
Forbes Magazine
They both get an F minus for real reporting.

David Lereah,
chief economist for the National Association of Realtors

Forgive me for asking this, but don't most economists tout the line
"Debt is wealth"
"Deficits don't matter"
and other such stupidity?

American economists, like all Keynesians, dare not sit down too fast or hard,
lest they risk injuring their brains.