What year will it be when the majority of Desperate Homedebtor Hamsters say "Damn, I wish I would have sold in 2005 and just rented"
2007?
2008?
2009?
2010?
2007?
2008?
2009?
2010?
Later?
Never?
February 21, 2007
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39 comments:
They'll pretend it's a non issue because they were..."In it for the long haul"
however long that means...?
But I've already said anything I need to say to my friends...and won't even breach the subject.
In fact...I even have my story made up for those that come and sob to me...
I'll just say..."Oh...I know what you mean...I lost money also...please...I don't even want to talk about it OK?"
and it'll be the truth...I dropped a quarter while getting into my beat up 84 Volvo the other day and it rolled away....sure did suck.
Hey that's baby Greenspan!
Desperate Homedebtor Hamster says:
"You can take the flipper out of the trailer but you can't take the trailer out of the flipper."
All the above, as the natural course of events in life trigger the need to sell the home during the long drawn out deflation phase of the housing bubble. Everybody loses, even the "long haul" people because they will be servicing debt levels that are over-inflated. The only winners are only those that did not participate (renters & pre-bubble owners), those that cashed out and were in the black and the REIC.
It will take at least five years of falling prices beyond the 2005 peak before the homedebtors even begin to acknowledge that "real estate DOESN'T always go up".
This just demonstrates how effective the REIC has been in brainwashing the sheeple into believe their B.S.
Same for Wall Street. They have also done an excellent job of programming the masses into believing that all they have to do is constantly pour money into a 401(k)/IRA and Wall Street will make them rich.
So, it will literally take five or more years of dropping prices, credit revulsion, foreclosures, bankruptcies and pain before you will finally see the sheeps capitulate.
Its 2007 ... heck its 2006. Now of course if they all tried to sell in 2005 and rented, it will have created a crash in 2005 making them wish they had sold in 2004. Such is the economic phenomenon called ... supply and demand.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.
2007
In San Diego I'm hearing people who denigrated bubble believers a year ago who are now scared to death
That picture kind of looks like Bob Toll.
thats a pretty frackin cute picture.
Debt hamsters are in deep denial, most of them will need to actually "see" listings increase in their neighborhoods before they will believe that RE is crashing.
By Spring of 2008, it will be more apparent to them that RE is a bad investment, but only free & clear homeowners will have the leverage necessary to sell their homes.
I keep a Pin-up on my Fridge at home for all my friends and relitives to see when they come over to visit...it says in Capital Letters..
" I TOLD YOU SO "
And they ask me " why do you keep that there"?
I tell them, As a reminder.
And yes I have 2 relitives living in MAJOR-MAJOR denial..IO-ARM resets Sept.07 $332,000 the other for $380,000 no money down walkin..Him a construction worker already looking for work...The other Hardwood floor installer...both are scouring the state for work...no bullshit...sad to say it but I tried to no avail to warn them..and they said i was nuts.
What year will it be when the majority of Desperate Homedebtor Hamsters say "Damn, I wish I would have sold in 2005 and just rented"
---------------
What year will it be when George Bush finally admits that he made some collosal mistakes during his presidency?
.
.
.
-Never!
The same goes for the majority of FB's out there. They will rationalize their flawed logic.
It's the American way, man - it's always somebody else's fault.
Debt hamsters are in deep denial, most of them will need to actually "see" listings increase in their neighborhoods before they will believe that RE is crashing.
By Spring of 2008, it will be more apparent to the debt hamsters that RE is a bad investment, only the free and clear homeowners will have enough leverage to sell their homes, the rest will go under.
Amen Greed..
I don't talk about matters financial to anyone anymore. All it gets you is scorn and derision from those who look at cnbc and see the fraudulent DOW hitting high after high regardless of market fundamentals. No one ever wants to admit that they made a mistake. It's always someone elses fault.
JAFO
They'll never admit it. Human nature prevents people from admitting mistakes.
Besides, "homeownership" is now regarded as a status symbol rather than a practical means of getting a place to live for the long term, meaning the people who brag about "ownership" already have inflated egos and will NEVER be humble enough to admit a mistake.
Even as they're losing everything in the crash, they'll continue to sit on their high horse and call us renters a bunch of common criminal, 2nd class citizens.
A beat up '84 Volvo...ha ha. That was my college car, the wagon version. By the time I got it from my sister who also had it in college it had 210K miles. Looked like shit, with dents and dings all over, bondo too. Still ran though, lots of memories.
Oh but then I graduated and joined the adult world. In that world, people don't drive 20 year old cars.
You renters really do crack me up. You drive 23 year old cars and live in shitbox apartments and then boast about it on blogs. I'll personally stick to driving a 2005 car and living in a home myself. But hey, whatever makes you happy.
And no renties, I don't have a negative option arm, no heloc, no cc debt and I'm not about to foreclose either, so save the snide comments.
OC Brainwiz said- Well according to the calculator on your site yesterday, I will lose more than 435K in 5 years renting. So my theory is hamsters will feel the pinch in 2007 for sure. Then it will be like a being trapped in a fish tank with a single piranha. He will slowly eat you alive.
I have had numerous conversations with friends who had the opportunity to cash out yet chose to "ride it out".
Now those same individuals are financially strapped while watching their home depreciate in value. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad at the same time.
Whatever happened to the old adage "if you can't afford it, don't buy it?" When and where did we lose that sense of fiscal responsibility?
When will housing return to the 2005 level is another interesting question.
I believe it never will in some locations.
Baby boomers want to retire or whatever. The problem is, everything they have will go on sale at the same time, and flood the market, and they all own houses.
What they need - healthcare, old age apartments, nursing etc will cost more and more and more due to demand skyrocketing.
Hey anon @ February 21, 2007 5:46 PM
Me too ...
Isn't it cool that we are here as homeowners instead of renters ... like these other losers.
Sarcasm off.
Some people here are renting million dollar houses (not me, though), and paying a fraction of what they would to 'own'.
I had a house until September, but the interest I make off the cashed out money makes my monthly payment a few hundred dollars less than before. Also, this does not take into account the 15-20k of deferred maintenance/cosmetics that I did not do. The investor who bought it was very nice...I hope he does OK. And no, I have not bought a NEW car in 13 years, but mine are not that old either.
Oh, forgot to mention...for less than the price I sold my house for, I could go to a large city in Tenn and buy a house twice as large, lot almost twice as large, newer, with an extra bay in the garage. Forgive me if I don't tell you where... don't want to start a rush, especially before I can go. Let me just say the house I SOLD was from above:
1542 SFT.
.23 acres
built 1989
2 car garage.
HAHAHA...Mr. Homedebtor anonymous...making fun of me for still owning an '84 Volvo.
Priceless.
Why? Because you don't know me....or my financials.
I guess you would laugh even harder at some of my friends who ride a bike and didn't even own a car...you would tell them how poor they were...call them a bitter renter...etc etc.
Until they told you their name.
cow guy,
All markets will get back to 2005 levels. Question is will it be 1 year, 5 years or 10 years.
HAHAHA...Mr. Homedebtor anonymous...making fun of me for still owning an '84 Volvo.
Why? Because you don't know me....or my financials.
I guess you would laugh even harder at some of my friends who ride a bike and didn't even own a car...you would tell them how poor they were...call them a bitter renter...etc etc.
Until they told you their name.
WTF? Start over. Type slowly this time and you might make some sense.
From 2001 to 2005 houses in Phoenix appreciated at 15% annually, then 6% to 2006, and 0% at best going into 2007.
They should have appreciated at about 6% every year, as they did previously for the steadily growing region.
It will take 5 years of 0% appreciation for prices to match normal historical values, or a nice one-time 25% drop.
The first will be annoying but not deadly except to ARM resets. The second would hurt most people emotionally, but financially hurt only those with debt more than 75% of current value.
The established inner areas will probably see -10% this year a 0% for a few years. Out-burbs will see at least -30% this year, then maybe 1-2% a year positive growth.
Where did the flawed logic start that the age of a car means ANYTHING at all? My mid sixties truck, and mid eighties cars work quite nicely. I would bicycle everyday if I could.
All cars are the same! Four wheels and they go down the road. BFD if you have a BMW or other leased status car. (BMW = Bowel Movement Within)
My dad is a complex person. He is proud that I sold in 2005 since the area is down 11% now. However, he disregards my opinion on the future of the housing market.
He has tried to get me to invest in three properties since. The latest one will be partly his new primary residence. It is a splitable lot with a SFH and barn. His idea is to build a house on the splitable lot and sell that off and then convert the barn into a liveable area where my sister and I would reside.
He believes in his head that he can't lose money. He has always made profits on his primary residence, and kicked himself for not getting in on investments during the bubble.
If he gets this place, I think he'll learn to regret it by 2009-2010. That'll be around the time when I will start looking to buy again. He'll probably be worried for me when I'm buying at the most painful time for him. That'll be my sign that I'm doing the right thing.
2005 level prices in bubble areas will be back in 2020
that would suck to buy a crummy mcmansion that falls apart in 5 years
``Oh but then I graduated and joined the adult world. In that world, people don't drive 20 year old cars.''
Yeah, I know what you mean. None of my friends drive 20 year old cars because we are adults. In fact we don't drive cars at all because we live in Manhattan. If you can't afford to live here then you haven't made it. You haven't joined the adult world. You're just a country bumpkin with your 2005 car.
Stay in the poor suburbs and keep your bile to yourself. Being forced to actually drive yourself is nothing to be proud of.
Have friends who bought in '05 and '06 who already know they made a mistake and that their homes are now worth less and likely to be worth a *bit* less in the future. They do concede that prices will still go down "some".
That is where I end the RE conversation. They don't need to hear right now that prices will be going down a whole lot more- they don't need to hear it from *me* anyway.
I'll feel a little guilty/sorry for them when they come to visit in my home that's twice the size for half the price.
But it was their decision to buy at the top.
I don't think I know anyone who is going to be out and out ruined by this bubble. They will be damaged though by feeding a monster mortgage on a monstrously expensive home for many many many years to come.
They'll have a lot less disposable income than I and that's going to show, we'll all be aware of that and why it happened.
Sometimes I think the MOST insane part of this mania is that at some point a switch flipped in many peoples heads and suddenly a home that they would have thought was gag- priced at 500K just a few years back - literally NO ONE would have fallen for that - all of a sudden it seemed somehow "reasonable" that that lowly place would command such a price.
People really lost it.
I will NEVER say that as my home is a HOME a not chips riding on the come line on a craps table.
Even if home values drop 50% I will still be in the green.I do and will continue to sleep like a baby at night. I got my home pre-bubble price, 30 year fixed, 5.365 interest rate, mortgage payment less than rent. I could give a rat's ass about my neighbor in foreclosure or the bitter guy who got shut out. I got mines. You had a chance to get yours. You blew it.
"Yeah, I know what you mean. None of my friends drive 20 year old cars because we are adults. In fact we don't drive cars at all because we live in Manhattan. If you can't afford to live here then you haven't made it. ...You're just a country bumpkin with your 2005 car.
Stay in the poor suburbs and keep your bile to yourself. Being forced to actually drive yourself is nothing to be proud of. "
Hey no bile here. In your situation, I'd do the same. Not practical where I live. BTW- How many kids do you have? Hate to be in NYC when the the "big one hits" Have fun!
2008
``Hey no bile here.''
Yes there was. You were insulting someone because they had chosen to not buy a status symbol. Now, I understand status symbols and periodically purchase them but with a certain level of guilt. But I think that your logic of ``You failed to buy Status Symbol X and therefore you are not an adult'' is both misguided and sad.
``BTW- How many kids do you have? Hate to be in NYC when the the "big one hits" Have fun!''
So, you lack courage?
Realistically, you're more likely to lose your children in your 2005 car than you would be in New York. Just run the maths. Car accidents pretty consistently claim more lives than terrorism or wars. In fact, you'd probably find that in the U.S. as a whole in the last 50 years that the number of fatalities in car accidents would exceed the population of Manhattan.
I understand that people are generally quite poor at evaluating risks and typically make the mistake of underestimating the risk of activities that they perform on a daily basis while overestimating the risk of things which they understand less.
Anonymous said...
``Hey no bile here.''
You don't have a clue of the point I was making. How can I respond?
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