February 23, 2007

Got Popcorn?


HP'ers, it's time to go pop the jiffy pop, tip back a cold one, and sit back on that La-Z-Boy and watch the show.

The Great Housing Crash, the Epic Unwinding, the Housing Ponzi Scheme Unraveling is here.

47 comments:

tmaioli said...

It's going to be a blockbuster too!

Anonymous said...

You'll laugh, you'll cry, you'll want to get out of your chair and dance!

tmaioli said...

This thriller about a man whose life becomes unhinged when he comes into possession of a House. 5 Stars

tmaioli said...

Critics say:

This movie is some muddled imagineering. It's a glib fantasy that soars beyond the misinformation belt into the vacuous realm of misinspiration.

Housing could almost be a relic from the golden age of Hollywood, an inspirational drama about staying true to one’s hopes and ideals no matter the social, economic, or emotional cost.

The perfect film for all those delusional, self-entitled American Idol rejects...darn it, this is America, where any man can lead a horse around his ranch.


The only baffling mystery here is why it was ever made in the first place.

Doing arithmetic helps distract you from how stupid the plot is.

An unengaging and colossally dumb occult thriller.

suitably wide-eyed, but its limitations are finally only too obvious

borkafatty said...

I Have a nice stash of cash, got my metal, (Physical metal not paper) Debt free, and 1 year out from mortgage free..I just can not wait for prices to crash..cause i am in line to buy a 2 or 4 family rental property for pennies on the dollar..I predict a rental boom within 2 years...shit with all these forclosures going on..where the "F" are all these folk going to live ??????????? Boy am I glad I seen the writing on the wall a long time ago.

az_mtb said...

Looks like you were right about this one too Keith!

-----------------------------------

Lowe's Earnings Fall on Decline in U.S. Home Sales

Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Lowe's Cos., the world's second- largest home-improvement retailer, said fourth-quarter profit declined 12 percent as fewer home sales in the U.S. cut demand for paint and lumber. Earnings exceeded analysts' estimates.

Net income fell to $613 million, or 40 cents a share, from $693 million, or 43 cents, a year earlier. Sales in the quarter ended Feb. 2 dropped to $10.4 billion from $10.8 billion, Mooresville, North Carolina-based Lowe's said today in a statement.

Chief Executive Robert Niblock cut his revenue forecast four times last year as U.S. home sales dropped at the fastest pace in 15 years. Niblock said today the sales decline appears to ``have bottomed,'' and that sales in older stores will ``gradually improve throughout 2007.''

``Lowe's, and the home-improvement industry, are in the middle of a tough macro environment and it could be weak for a couple of more quarters,'' Craig Nedbalski, who helps manage $21.5 billion in assets at Cincinnati-based Fifth Third Asset Management, said yesterday.

Lowe's shares slipped 10 cents to $33.63 yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. They've gained 8 percent this year, outpacing the 2.5 percent increase for Home Depot.

The 13 percent drop in U.S. residential construction last year was the biggest since 1991. Sales of existing homes fuels spending for paint and cabinets as many sellers make improvements and buyers remodel.

Lowe's Forecast

Bigger rival Home Depot Inc. said Feb. 20 it lost market share last year. Niblock said today Lowe's gained market share in several categories, without being more specific.

Lowe's said per-share profit in the quarter ending May 4 will be 49 cents to 51 cents. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimate 50 cents. Sales will rise as much as 6 percent and revenue in stores open at least a year will fall 2 percent to 4 percent, the company said.

For the year ending Feb. 1, Lowe's forecast a sales gain of about 10 percent and as much as 2 percent in older stores. Per-share profit for the year should be $2.02 to $2.09. Analysts estimate earnings of $2.02.

For the fourth quarter, 20 analysts, on average, estimated profit of 37 cents, according to a Bloomberg survey. For the full year, Lowe's predicted profit of $1.95 to $1.96, while analysts estimated $1.96. Lowe's profit for the year was $1.99 a share.

Lowe's predicted that sales at stores open at least a year would be unchanged for the year ended Feb. 2, down from an earlier forecast of a 2 percent to 3 percent increase. Lowe's predicted a fourth-quarter drop of 6 percent in such stores.

Michael Cox, a Minneapolis-based analyst with Piper Jaffray, estimated a 5 percent sales slump in such stores.

Home Depot

Home Depot, which ousted CEO Robert Nardelli over compensation issues in January, reported its biggest profit decline Feb. 20. New CEO Frank Blake wants to regain market share and focus on customer service, where it trails Lowe's.

Alan Rifkin, a New York-based analyst with Lehman Bros., said Home Depot's loss of market share bodes well for Lowe's. As the housing market rebounds Lowe's retail edge will help it outperform Home Depot, said Rifkin, who has an ``overweight'' rating on Lowe's. He suspended Home Depot coverage this month.

Anonymous said...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070223/earns_impac_mortgage.html?.v=2


Impact Mortgage is latest subprime to blow up!

westwood realty llc said...

re: borkafatty 1:37
4 family rental property for pennies on the dollar

I will go this route as well, as a would-be first time buyer in Central Massachusetts. My worry, however, is that prices for these fourplexes are tied more to rental rates than to SFH comps. By this logic, tighter credit requirements = fewer SFH buyers = unchanged (or higher) demand for rentals = unchanged prices for multiproperties. I hope I am wrong about this. However, there are still some fair (6-8% capitalization rate) asking prices for these buildings on the local MLS.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

THE PLOT THICKENS IN FLORIDA. This is above and beyond the Home Owners Insurance costs doubling and tripling here.
IW

Calls for property-tax reform resound at a PUBLIC hearing.

Willoughby Mariano | Orlando Sentinel Staff Writer

orlandosentinel.com

Posted February 23, 2007

About 200 residents from St. Cloud to Cocoa Beach packed a public hearing Thursday, angry over a state property-tax system many said is broken.

Homeowners told of taxes jumping by 50 percent or more. Farmers said they worried about being run out of business. Some said costs are so high they can't live here anymore.

"It's pushing me right out of the state," said an upset Debi Clark, 52, who lives near St. Cloud and said she can no longer afford to live in the place she loves.

Thursday's public hearing at Valencia Community College's West Campus was the latest in a series of meetings statewide hosted by the Florida Senate's Committee on Finance and Tax.

During the past decade, critics argue, a combination of property-tax measures, skyrocketing home values and other factors have meant higher taxes for homeowners and left aspiring home buyers with few affordable options. Meanwhile, some complain the ultra-rich get tax breaks on their estates to the tune of $50,000 and upward.

As lawmakers prepare for the opening of the spring legislative session March 6, they already have announced proposals to overhaul the system.

One offered Wednesday would use a proposed constitutional amendment to end all property taxes on primary homes. It would boost the statewide sales tax to 8.5 percent -- the highest in the nation. A separate proposed state law would force local governments to lower property taxes and cut an average of 19 percent of their budgets.

Supporters of the tax proposals argue they will save the typical Florida homeowner thousands of dollars a year in property taxes, and help businesses even more.

Local governments worry that poor people would suffer under the measure by paying higher sales taxes, and crucial services such as police and fire protection and road improvements could suffer, officials said.

In a news conference Thursday, Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty warned that more "revolutionary" proposals being shopped in Tallahassee could "take a meat ax" to local budgets.

Crotty said there's no need for major business tax breaks at this time, and relying on a sales tax would be "regressive to that person on minimum wage."

Attendees of Thursday's hearing expressed mixed feelings about the latest proposals, as well as whom to blame for the problem.

John Matronia, 61, of Orlando and a member of anti-tax group Ax the Tax, blamed "liberal socialists."

Miriam Lancaster, 91, of Orlando's College Park neighborhood, blamed politicians she said were out of touch with their constituents.

"Let them exist on Social Security, like the rest of us," she said.

Some said high taxes have forced them out of their homes. Julianne Morse, 75, of Holmes Beach, said she owned two properties -- in Orlando and in Holmes Beach -- but had to move out of Orlando because taxes on her second home more than doubled.

Some thought the entire tax system needs an overhaul. Everything from sales taxes to property taxes to tax exemptions needs to be re-examined, said Dennis O. Freytes, 57, of Windermere.

"We must have a reasonable tax revolution," he said.

Mammoth said...

Bork,
You may want to rethink your financial strategy of becoming a landlord.

For the past five years I have not raised the rent I charge for my rental house, because the local market will not support it. Got a couple of good tenants and don’t want to risk losing them.

Thanks to the crash, many present-day homedebtors will become renters; while many of today’s “sold at the top bubble sitters who-are-now-renters,” who are good tenants - will exit the rental market.

This will leave you a pool of renters from which to choose from:
a. Those people who aren’t capable of getting their sh*t together enough to get into their own home, and
b. The witless ex FB’s who foolishly bought in at the top of the bubble and lost it all.

If this set of choices of bottom-feeders is still tantalizing for you, then please also consider the multitudes of FB’s who stubbornly held onto their overpriced homes and also turned them into rentals. As a landlord, you will have a heck of a lot of competition from other landlords.

Good luck!

-Mammoth

Hard assets said...

I have a bottle of Pinot Noir vintage 1998, and some pate with those fancy-schmancie ritz cracker. When the big one hits, be it Countrywide or Wells, I along with some sellect housing panic friends will sip the Pinot Noir and toast the end of the bubble. Just like it's their "wake".

LauraVella said...

New series out this Spring called: "Despondent Homeowners"

Neighbors who bought into a new housing development called "Tumbleweed Tutors" in Cooknrot AZ. The series is focused on following the lives of 6 homeowners, and their trials and tribulations of breaking out of denial homeownership-who assumed they were purchasing upper echelon living, only to discover the downside of homeownership ....see how they use their creativity to solve their problems paying outragious heating bills, and how they get-even with the developer and sales team for selling them overvalued, sub-standard homes. Premiering after Desperate Housewives on Sunday nights.

Anonymous said...

NO.

If you sit back and watch now you're going to lose valuable planning time. Remember the story about the prudent squirrel who gathers nuts during the summer and stores them for winter, while the other squirrel plays? Now, more than ever, it's time to shake a leg, get on the stick, etc.

blue boy said...

The door is closing:

http://tinyurl.com/2l9wtb

If you haven't moved your money out already, you are screwed. All you IRAs are belong to us!

RayNLA said...

I have a great title for this epic film currently shooting on location across the USA and the WORLD!

GONE WITH THE WIND

Anonymous said...

CA prices up 2.4% YOY. KEIF, I know you have declared the official end of the housing bubble and the official start of the crash, but how does a crash occur when home prices in the most populated state is higher in Jan '07 compared to Jan '06?


By Alex Veiga
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

California home sales slowed last month, but the annual decline was the most moderate in the past 10 months, suggesting that buyers might be less reluctant to enter the market, according to figures released Thursday.

Meanwhile, the statewide median price hit $462,000 in January, up 2.4 percent from a revised $451,000 a year ago and down 2.1 percent from December, DataQuick Information Systems said.
Sword Medical

A total of 32,425 houses and condominiums were sold statewide last month, down 16.7 percent from a revised 38,937 during the year-ago period and off 25.3 percent from December, DataQuick said.

borkafatty said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
JAFO said...

I am somewhat surprised by the flippant attitudes of some of you otherwise smart HP'ers. The housing crash is merely a symptom of a much wider disease infecting the entire US economy. Maybe you are not thinking through just exaclty how bad things can really get. Social unrest leads to swift government action. Read that martial law. Suspension of your basic civil liberties and so on. We appear to be on the verge of major hostilities all over the world. The fact is that America is a wounded tiger. Our rotten economic policies have backfired on us to the point that we depend on foreigners for cash and energy. If they voluntarily stop supplying then we have little choice but to go in and try to take it by force. Do you really believe that Iraq was about WMDs and deposing Saddam? It was purely about securing the oil of the world's third largest producer for ourselves. China is up to the same game as we are only they are doing it economically rather than through brute force and with our dollars to boot. They are locking up oil and resources all over the world and even right under our noses off the Cuban shores. I like seeing the greedy and stupid take a fall as much as anyone but this won't remain confined to just those folks. Times have changed and the future looks a lot less bright for our kids. Think about it.

JAFO

Blowfly said...

You god damned renter shit heads. Can you explain to me why any arse licking idiot would want to see the US economy destroyed? You are warped and totally unhinged. Motherfucking morons and most likely relatives of cunt licking Brittney Spears. When the shit hits the fan the hoi polloi will come and steal your gold and then you'll be hearing the pop pop pop of the 3 bullets that are going to enter your shit eating head.

Anonymous said...

Keith,

FYI - Sold my home a few weeks back and closed this morning. I'm in Central Ohio. The crushing mortgage, taxes, upkeep, etc. are all behind me now. Glad to be renting, $300k+ in the bank (meeting w/my financial guy next week to discuss financial investment options), and will be paying off all debts next week (car, credit cards). Actually lost a little money on the house due to declining home prices, but I'm happy - the decline here in Central Ohio has just begun.

Damn, this feels good! Got a nice apartment, and will enjoy watching the crash. I'll certainly be ready to buy once it's all over.

Thanks Keith, and to everyone else out here, for helping me become aware of the disaster that's unfolding.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

Anon February 23, 2007 3:26 PM sez:

"NO.

If you sit back and watch now you're going to lose valuable planning time. Remember the story about the prudent squirrel who gathers nuts during the summer and stores them for winter, while the other squirrel plays? Now, more than ever, it's time to shake a leg, get on the stick, etc."

That is excellent advice!!

I don't want to see a fantastic opportunity and say, "wow, I wish I had prepared to take advantage of this."

Thanks!!!!!!

Stuck in So Pa said...

.....Niblock said today the sales decline appears to ``have bottomed,'' and that sales in older stores will ``gradually improve throughout 2007.''

Typical spin, must be related to David L, or he's been listening to him too damn much. You notice the emphasis on "older stores".
How about those NEW stores built in anticipation of all the housing developments that were SUPPOSED to be built in an area.

The closest HD (not Lowes but same applies) to me sits in an industrial park in the middle of NOTHING! No customers either. What's going to happen to these stores now? I expect a lot of closings, although older stores in both chains will do O.K.

Jip said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Shenanigoat said...

Got schadenfreude?

noun: delight in another person's misfortune

Alpha_Bear said...

I laughed until I stopped.

Alpha_Bear said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

Keith,

Is trollfly using your blog to issue death threats to renters, or am I reading that wrong? Trollfly, please attempt to be cool.

Alpha_Bear said...

blowfly = gadfly

Alpha_Bear said...

"I like seeing the greedy and stupid take a fall as much as anyone but this won't remain confined to just those folks."

I have seen the greedy and the stupid, and they are us.

Anonymous said...

Jafo's right - housing is only part of the script to Perfect Economic Storm. We may have dingies or life preservers, but we're still going to be tossing in the waves. "Giddy" is the appropriate adjective.

Pass the popcorn.

Mort said...

Wow, Blowfly has really gone off the deep end. And then there's this:

Times have changed and the future looks a lot less bright for our kids. Think about it.

Waa!! Yeah, the future for your spawn looks pretty weak. Better to go steal some oil from those Nigerian kids, they don't know what they're missing anyway. Typical American.

borkafatty said...

"some actual facts"


February 23, 2007

View from Silicon Valley- The Last 30 days (Feb'07 Edition)

(c) copyright View from Silicon Valley, 2007. All rights reserved.



House prices in Silicon Valley make most of their annual increases in the spring. Since 2003, prices after June 1 showed a median change of:

2003: 0.0%
2004: +1.8%
2005: -0.7%
2006: -7.8% (= -$60K!!)
2007: TBD

So how are prices doing lately?

In short, Santa Clara County ended 2006 on a very weak note. December was so bad that it brought the YTD gain all the way down to only +$5K.

Updating the "The Next 60 days'" table for "Total Resale Homes":


Median +/-$ 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
January -$4K -$47K -0- +$5K -$3K
February +$7K +$52K +$22K +$17K
March -$10K +$39K +$33K +$13K
April +$15K +$11K +$17K -$10K
May -$4K +$15K +$8K +$30K
June +$29K +$9K +$15K +$15K
July -$24K -$9K -$5K -$20K
August +$17K -0- +$14K -$25K
September -$3K +$5K -$9K +$10K
October +$10K +$5K +$9K -$1.5K
November -0- -0- +$1K +1K
December -0- +$10K -$15K -$24.5K
Total +$43K +$90K +$90K +$5K

Comparing YTD numbers for the last four years, we find

YTD thru 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
January -$4K -$47K -0- +$5K -$3K
Let's peek at YTD volume over the last few years.

Resales Sold 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
January 1,682 1,682 1,253 931 983
The monthly realtors' blurb focuses on current volume and price vs. last year (y-o-y). To make thinks a little more interesting, let's invent a "new" statistic "year-over-two-years-ago" or "y-o-2y" and "year-over-three-years-ago" or "y-o-3y":

Resale Units 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 y-o-y y-o-2y y-o-3y
January 1,682 1,682 1,253 931 983 +5.6% -21.5% -41.6%


Part of the rationale for ignoring y-o-y (and even y-o-2y) volume is the claim there aren't enough properties for sale. Fortunately, we have this data also:

Single-family homes listed for sale 2006:

DQ MLS
January 12 1,687
February 9 1,818
March 9 2,103
April 9 2,194
May 7 2,606
June 8 2,974
July 6 3,185
August 10 3,389
September 7 3,401 4,201
October 5 3,389 3,899 (DQ= +100.9% YTD)
November 7 3,070 3,496 (DQ= +82.0% YTD)
December 6 2,571 2,843 (DQ= +52.4% YTD)
January 1,969 2,554 (DQ= +16.7% y-o-y)
February 8 2,238 2,901 (DQ= +23.1% y-o-y)

MLS data is pulled within a day or two of this missive's creation (meaning the "as of" date lags ~two weeks).

Breaking down the details:
Peak Since
All Homes Current Peak Date Peak y-o-y
Santa Clara Co. $660K $690K Jul26'06 -4.3% +0.8%#
San Mateo Co. $735K $775K Jul20'05 -5.2% -1.3%##
Santa Cruz Co. *$665K $720K May26'05 -7.6% -2.9%###

*= thru ~January 23
mis-reported publicly as: # = +1.5%; ## = +1.4%; ### = +5.0%

Price changes between January 23 and January 31 might account for some of the y-o-y percentage change discrepancies...

Peak Since
Resale Homes Current Peak Date Peak y-o-y
Santa Clara Co. *$707K $772K Jul20'06 -8.4% +1.0%
San Mateo Co. **$780K $830K Aug11'05 -6.0% -1.0%
Santa Cruz Co **$718K $775K Nov04'05 -7.4% -0.3%

*=- thru January 26
**= thru January 23


San Mateo and Santa Cruz numbers are much more volatile than Santa Clara County. They bounce, up and down, on lower volume, more than Santa Clara County, on a regular basis.
* * * * *

"All Homes" y-o-y:
SantaClara SanMateo SantaCruz
County County County
Dec'05 14.8% 12.5% 17.4%
Jan 15.5% 8.2% 13.5%
Feb 14.2% 6.4% 12.6%
Mar 10.2% 3.4% 8.0%
Apr 6.3% -0.1% 11.5%
May 7.0% 3.4% 8.3%
June 4.7% 2.6% 0.0%
July 3.9% -0.1% -3.6%
August 1.7% -2.0% -3.5%
Sept. 2.3% -2.0% 3.2%
Oct. 2.0% -1.8% 0.0%
Nov. 2.0% -1.3% -8.5%
Dec. 0.9% -1.2% -2.9%
Jan'07 0.8% -1.3% -2.9%

"Resale Homes" y-o-y:
SantaClara SanMateo SantaCruz
County County County
Dec'05 16.5% 10.7% 10.9%
Jan 13.6% 10.8% 4.7%
Feb 13.0% 5.7% -0.3%
Mar 10.6% 3.8% 3.8%
Apr 5.1% 2.5% 10.8%
May 9.4% 2.0% 5.7%
June 9.2% 1.9% 5.7%
July 7.1% 1.9% 1.2%
August 2.8% 1.9% -2.3%
Sept. 4.3% -1.8% 1.1%
Oct. 2.7% 0.0% -4.2%
Nov. 2.1% 1.3% -3.3%
Dec. 1.4% -1.2% -3.6%
Jan'07 1.0% -1.0% -0.3%

Bottom Line:
Inventory is starting to turn upwards. There might be some minor price increases and sales volume might even tick up but, compared to 2004 and 2005 activity, we're still betting 2007 will be a "Silent Spring."

Anonymous said...

Can someone please define Ponzi?

Anonymous said...

Ponzi - you can look it up!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Ponzi

PaintSplat said...

i'm an artist. i guess foreclosure lawyers and auctioneers will be keeping busy earning money, and are the future customers to paint for...

Anonymous said...

"Blowfly"= kompleat idiot

Anonymous said...

I think blowfly is an owner who's jealous of us renters!

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Anon February 23, 2007 3:26 PM sez:

"NO.

If you sit back and watch now you're going to lose valuable planning time. Remember the story about the prudent squirrel who gathers nuts during the summer and stores them for winter, while the other squirrel plays? Now, more than ever, it's time to shake a leg, get on the stick, etc."

That is excellent advice!!

I don't want to see a fantastic opportunity and say, "wow, I wish I had prepared to take advantage of this."

Thanks!!!!!!

February 23, 2007 5:34 PM

===============================

You're welcome.

Shakster said...

High school class the way it was meant to be-Beer ,Popcorn,and comedians to keep us all glued to our curriculum<---???The comedians are in this case,all the flippers,helocked FB's,Brokers,and REwhores.Graduates from this class will want to move to a different planet.

Anonymous said...

borkafatty,

your brother-in-law should really follow your lead.

lovely mess said...

Woe to all the nincompoops who bought a 800 sf dump for 200K, a 1920s 2000 sf for 650K or, a crappy condo for 300K, etc. this year, thinking they were getting a "deal".

lovely mess said...

Woe to all the nincompoops who bought a 800 sf dump for 200K, a 1920s 2000 sf for 650K or, a crappy condo for 300K, etc. this year, thinking they were getting a "deal".

Anonymous said...

Will work for food stamps.

borkafatty said...

borkafatty,

your brother-in-law should really follow your lead.

-------------

I try m8 I really do...but I get...well you know that look like i am crazy or something..Even yesterday I was over his house playing cards...and he just will not heed my warning..Especially after all the bad news and Gold heading tword 700+ I told him inflation is coming and that rate are going up...bigtime...nope just can not seem to break that thick headed head of his...so I just came out and said " dude you are going to loose your house" and there is nothing you or the bank can do to stop it.

Upsaide down IO-ARM
Upsidedown in Equity
Upsidedown in value


So if there are any miricle bankers or mortgage broker that frequent this board and can get this guys place refied to a 30 year fixed ..come foward otherwise..I told you so.

borkafatty said...

Can anyone say

hyperinflation and shrinking growth!!

Say it with me 10 times fast

hyperinflation and shrinking growth
hyperinflation and shrinking growth
hyperinflation and shrinking growth
hyperinflation and shrinking growth
hyperinflation and shrinking growth
hyperinflation and shrinking growth
hyperinflation and shrinking growth
hyperinflation and shrinking growth
hyperinflation and shrinking growth


Excuse me I have some gold and silver I want to go rub between my fingers good day and good luck.

Anonymous said...

Countrywide will freak the market out this week. I think the delay is because they truly don't know how bad the red ink is