January 29, 2007

HousingPANIC Stupid Questions of the Day

1) Inflation or Deflation?
2) Fed Rise or Fed Cut?
3) Gold Up or Gold Down?
4) Stocks Up or Stocks Down?
5) Mortgage Rates Up or Mortgage Rates Down?
6) Dollar Up or Dollar Down?
7) GDP Up or GDP Down?
8) David Lereah Fired or David Lereah Resign?
9) Foreclosures Up or Foreclosures Down?
10) Casey Jailed or Casey Free?

32 comments:

Butch said...

1) Inflation or Deflation?
Inflation so far in assets (stocks, bonds, real estate), fed by the unprecedented worldwide, central-bank liquidity-creating machine. Eventual (three to five years out, I'm sorry to say) deflation, fought tooth-and-nail by the CBs, the governments, and the sheeple.

2) Fed Rise or Fed Cut?
Fed sits on their hands for this round. Eventually tries every trick in the book (dropping rates to zero, monetizing every asset under the sun) to stave off the impending doom. No chance of success.

3) Gold Up or Gold Down?
Gold goes up and up until the feds decide to confiscate it under the "Anti-Seditionist/Gold-Hoarding/Save the Sheeple Act of 2008"

4) Stocks Up or Stocks Down?
Stocks do whatever the manipulators want them to do. 100 million sheeple, in their 401(k)/IRA/mutual funds are just along for the ride. If stocks DO continue to rise, the value of the dollars gained will be worth less and less.

5) Mortgage Rates Up or Mortgage Rates Down?
If our Communist and Mercantilist Chinese and Japanese debt-enablers get fed up with buying agencies, then mortgage rates go sky-high. If they keeps buying our worthless debt, mortgage rates stay low. Doesn't matter either way, since the homedebtors are in deep trouble no matter what.

6) Dollar Up or Dollar Down?
Lot's of debate here. My sense is dollar down as U.S. collapses in a heap due to over-indebtedness and over-warmongering.

7) GDP Up or GDP Down?
Another totally manipulated stat. GDP does whatever the gov't says it does (see stock market)

8) David Lereah Fired or David Lereah Resign?
Hopefully both, AND brought up on charges.

9) Foreclosures Up or Foreclosures Down?
This one is easy. foreclosures UP, massively (as in tens of millions) until Congress passes the "Anti-Terrorist Save the Homedebting Sheeple Act of 2009" which imposes debt moratoiums and allows sheeps to squat while the feds attempt to sort out the mess.

10) Casey Jailed or Casey Free?
Casey jailed. Perhaps can be David Lereah's cell mate!!!

Anonymous said...

1) I would think we'll have inflation in most household commodities especially ones that are imported (which is freaking everything) but deflation in housing.

10) Casey is going to jail, no question. maybe a white collar country club ... but jail it is, for probably 1-5 years.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

Anonymous said...

1) Inflation or Deflation? INFLATION
2) Fed Rise or Fed Cut? FED RISE
3) Gold Up or Gold Down? GOLD UP
4) Stocks Up or Stocks Down? STOCKS UP
5) Mortgage Rates Up or Mortgage Rates Down? MORTGAGE RATES UP
6) Dollar Up or Dollar Down? DOLLAR DOWN
7) GDP Up or GDP Down? GDP UP
8) David Lereah Fired or David Lereah Resign? DL RESIGN
9) Foreclosures Up or Foreclosures Down? WWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAAAYYYY UP
10) Casey Jailed or Casey Free? JAILED / CHARGED BY MARCH

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

I think Butch is a hard act to follow, and I did not read his predictions before I posted. So here goes. Login in and publish.
Click.
iw

1) Inflation or Deflation?

Inflation first the deflation toward mid or year end.

2) Fed Rise or Fed Cut?

Fed Hold, maybe all year.

3) Gold Up or Gold Down?

Gold volatile

4) Stocks Up or Stocks Down?

No opinion, except some former blue chip will become junk (cars)

5) Mortgage Rates Up or Mortgage Rates Down?

Steady all year, maybe down a bit..

6) Dollar Up or Dollar Down?

Dollar below .80.

7) GDP Up or GDP Down?

down


8) David Lereah Fired or David
Lereah Resign?

neither, he will stay.

9) Foreclosures Up or Foreclosures Down?

UP, duh

10) Casey Jailed or Casey Free?

Casey will become a nobody.


11) Gas prices up or down?

way up.

Anonymous said...

Butch, would you consider running for congress.I could not have answered 1-10 any better and more accurate too!

'gold goes up until fed decides to confiscate it under the 'anti-sedition/gold hoarding/save the sheeple act of 2008' ROTFLMFAO, you may be 2 years early on that one, my guess is 2010, but confiscate they will; just like before...in 1933 I believe...

'Stocks do whatever the manipulators want them to do' You can say that again, the manipulators brought a whole new meaning to the PPT.

Anonymous said...

We'll have deflation until the drivatives markets collapse. Then to bailout the banks, the Fed will have to hyperinflate. $1 now will become $1,000,000 then.

llamafornia said...

Im going out on a limb for #10. Casey will be appointed the new spokeshole for NAR after David the Goliath is sacked. Casey is the perfect new face to represent the new economy and I am sure he will be a good fit.

Under his leadership, I the Anderson Forecast will project strong growth in home values. And when my house in the OC triples in value twice more, I'm going to be RICH, BITCHEZ!

Anonymous said...

"$1 dollar now will become $1,000,000 then"

I think that's the case already.... there are so many billionaires now that millionaires only 0.001 dollars for each one the billionaire has.

thus, in 2007, the economy will remain inflationairy. if renters "save enough," the housing market will get the next flood of money.

Metroplexual said...

1) Deflation, already seeing it in house and commodities

2) Fed Rise, to prop up dollar

3) Gold Up, due to need to prop up dollar

4) Stocks Down, economy is sputtering right now

5) Mortgage Rates Up, already there and going further

6) Dollar Down a little due to fed intervention

7) GDP down

8) David Lereah Fired or David Lereah Resign? Neither NAR loves him.

9) Foreclosures Up, ARM resets

10)Casey Free, they don't have enough jail cells for all of his ilk.

Anonymous said...

1) Inflation or Deflation?
- Inflation, and lots of it due to the Fed printing money at a frantic pace thereby devaluing the currency.

2) Fed Rise or Fed Cut?
- For now, idle. Eventually, rates will have to rise to offset the dollar's decline. (Note the recent spike in 10 year treasury yields)

3) Gold Up or Gold Down?
- Up. More so as dollar continues decline.

4) Stocks Up or Stocks Down?
- Probably flat to down. At least for the near term.

5) Mortgage Rates Up or Mortgage Rates Down?
- Mostly idle. I doubt they will risk popping this bubble in a fashion that would invite scrutiny.

6) Dollar Up or Dollar Down?
- Down. WAY down.

7) GDP Up or GDP Down?
- Down as a result of housing slowdown and subsequent layoffs.

8) David Lereah Fired or David Lereah Resign?
- Eventually resigns. (Nobody gets fired anymore unless you bang the cleaning lady on your desk)
He will eventually be testifying in front of Congress after housing has crashed.

9) Foreclosures Up or Foreclosures Down?
- Up to historic levels. And beyond.

10) Casey Jailed or Casey Free?
- Casey is small potatoes. He may become a pawn for the Feds to crack down on shady mortgage lenders.

devestment said...

Let's see,
The Bush Fed serves the bankers so...
Gold up, interest down
Astronomical inflation reported as tame.

Anonymous said...

Butch, would you consider running for congress.I could not have answered 1-10 any better and more accurate too!

'gold goes up until fed decides to confiscate it under the 'anti-sedition/gold hoarding/save the sheeple act of 2008' ROTFLMFAO, you may be 2 years early on that one, my guess is 2010, but confiscate they will; just like before...in 1933 I believe...

'Stocks do whatever the manipulators want them to do' You can say that again, the manipulators brought a whole new meaning to the PPT.


Do you really think this is a likely scenario???? The dollar isn't based on gold. How many people actually have gold?? Confiscating it does what exactly???

Does keeping gold bullion purchases under 10K per transaction keep the government from knowing what you have?? How much gold escaped confiscation in the thirties???

joey said...

IF we have a sharp downturn we may have a bit of deflation.We already have that in homes(but much further to go). Bonds and stocks could follow.

No fed cut, the fed keeps talking up inflation on purpose even though its not as bad(in fake gov't world stats) as last year. They are aware of dollar concerns and debt. Bernadke may be more responsible than Greenbackspan.

Gold? I'd say flat lien or up. Who knows? The IMF wants to change gold rules, if that happens it could be way up.

Mortgages rates and forclosures up. Thats an easy one.

Dollar? Ask China and japan-not us.Maybe they dump dollars after the olympics-but not likely before.

GDP? Doesn't matter its such hokus pokus on that stat.

stuckinthecity said...

1) Inflation or Deflation?
Bubbled priced items back down, but inflation bringing them up again soon. I'd say the current situation is similar to stagflation. My salary has not increased enough to keep up with "non-core" inflated items...which is almost everything!

2) Fed Rise or Fed Cut?
I want a 1/4 RISE in the spring, but they will cut it a 1/4

3) Gold Up or Gold Down?
Isn't gold tied to oil? With oil leveling, gold should too.

4) Stocks Up or Stocks Down?
DOW up to 13,000 and then flat. Dumps as more Enron-ish book cooking scandals from Toll, etc come to light. And Ford just sux.

5) Mortgage Rates Up or Mortgage Rates Down?
Every week end for that last few the average 30-fix has gone up .02, much more to come.

6) Dollar Up or Dollar Down?
Dollar down, Chinese pissed. More NUKular power plants gift wrapped for the most powerful "communist" country on the planet.

7) GDP Up or GDP Down?
All BS, who cares?

8) David Lereah Fired or David Lereah Resign?
Figure head, who cares?

9) Foreclosures Up or Foreclosures Down?
WAAAAAAAAAAAAY UP

10) Casey Jailed or Casey Free?
All BS, who cares?

Anonymous said...

Nothing major will break untill a Dem walks in to the WH in Jan of '09.

Forget Iraq. The Dem Congress should start pounding Buch, Co. on the economy NOW, if they want a leg to stand on in '09

Anonymous said...

1) Inflation or Deflation? Neither, STAGFLATION baby, get out that John Travolta Saturday Night Fever suit!
2) Fed Rise or Fed Cut? Fed gets the purple nurple with tit caught in ringer. This cycle, Fed stands pat (in terror)
3) Gold Up or Gold Down? Bumpy but overall, gold up.
4) Stocks Up or Stocks Down? Big winners on some fronts but big losers on the other side, no middle ground - just like the shrinking middle class in America.
5) Mortgage Rates Up or Mortgage Rates Down? Mortgage rates rise as liquidity dries up.
6) Dollar Up or Dollar Down? Compared to? Other currencies from developed world or gold, dollar down.
7) GDP Up or GDP Down? Who cares?
8) David Lereah Fired or David Lereah Resign? Leaves to pursue "other interests and family commitments", later, brought in for questioning ala Frankline Raines.
9) Foreclosures Up or Foreclosures Down? The down side of the credit bubble - up, up and away in my beautiful balloon.
10) Casey Jailed or Casey Free? He's so young and cute, he better hope for doing his time in a Federal big house.

Anonymous said...

1) Inflation or Deflation?
Bubbled priced items back down, but inflation bringing them up again soon. I'd say the current situation is similar to stagflation. My salary has not increased enough to keep up with "non-core" inflated items...which is almost everything!
+++++++++++
I agree. I think stagflation is the name of the game, and it's been this way for the last 4-5 years. The reason I went back to work full-time was because "non-core" items were inflating so much that I could not support myself on a part-time salary. The CPI has turned into such a well-known joke, I'm surprised the MSM hasn't been more openly skeptical about it....

Anonymous said...

DEFLATION
FED RATE FLAT
GOLD DOWN
STOCKS DOWN
MORTGAGE RATES UP
DOLLAR UP
GDP DOWN
FORECLOSURES UP
CASEY WHO CARES?

Anonymous said...

1) Inflation -- due to huge increases in the money supply and collapse of the USD.

2) The Fed will cut rates in a panic reaction similar to post-9/11. This will help bail out all but the dumbest hedge funds and banks. BoJ and Bank of China will trip over themselves to push money into our credit markets so dumbass homeowners can get out of their ARMS and stay solvent. Look for 100 year mortgages backed by Uncle Sam for those "less fortunate", and the 25 million Mexicans who will get full amnesty.

3) Gold will hold its value. An ounce of gold will buy you a nice suit, no matter what the asking price is in dollars. That said, the government will tax the hell out of precious metal transactions, probably to the tune of 50%. This avoids the angry rhetoric and gunfire that outright confiscation might cause, and achieves the same result.

4) Stocks will go up because of the huge liquidity injections and this will be shown as "evidence" by politicians that all is well.

5) Mortgage rates will drop to historically low numbers because that is what the voters will demand.

6) The USD as we knew it is toast. It will be devalued 10%-20% a year, and eventually replaced by a new regional currency similar to the Euro.

7) U.S. GDP will be calculated using a new formula that masks the true implosion. All smoke and mirrors from here on out.

8) Lereah? Who cares?

9) Foreclosures will be stalled by emergency legislation once the pain and outcry gets bad enough to bring in Congress. Hey, if hedge funds can get away with it, why not Joe Blow?

10) Casey will do a little time at Club Fed, then write a best-selling book. Given his experience and obvious lack of morality, I see a career in politics for the kid.

Anonymous said...

"Does keeping gold bullion purchases under 10K per transaction keep the government from knowing what you have?? How much gold escaped confiscation in the thirties???"

No, all cash transactions larger than $5K must be reported, and banks can lump together smaller transactions from the same customer if they add up to $5K.

If we give them too much sh_t, they may just ban all cash transactions over $50. We have TSA goons at airports 24/7, and I can see FSA (Financial Security Admin.) "officers" stationed at banks and large retailers -- to keep us safe.

Can't you hear it now? "Place your purses and wallets on the belt. Keep moving. Remember, failure to declare cash holdings over $50 is a Federal crime. Precious metals are subject to immediate confiscation..."

Richard said...

1) Inflation or Deflation? STAGFLATION 70 STYLE

2) Fed Rise or Fed Cut? CUT - NO SENSE IN RISING THE $ IS TOAST EITHER WAY

3) Gold Up or Gold Down? WAY UP -$1650 BY END OF YEAR

4) Stocks Up or Stocks Down? DOWN - 50% OR BETTER

5) Mortgage Rates Up or Mortgage Rates Down? DOWN - PERCEPTION ONLY

6) Dollar Up or Dollar Down? BONE CRUSHING THUD FOR THE $

7) GDP Up or GDP Down? DOWN - WAY DOWN

8) David Lereah Fired or David Lereah Resign? WHO CARES.

9) Foreclosures Up or Foreclosures Down? THROUGH THE ROOF

10) Casey Jailed or Casey Free? WHO CARES

11) PRICE OF GAS - AT LEAST $5 IF NOT $25 BY YEAR END

Anonymous said...

4) Stocks Up or Stocks Down? DOWN - 50% OR BETTER

11) PRICE OF GAS - AT LEAST $5 IF NOT $25 BY YEAR END

-------------------------------------

Richard,

Quite simply you need help. And I suggest you get it quickly before your hurt yourself or someone close to you.

Anonymous said...

Who The Ef cares, all you renters will still be renting a decrepid 1 bed / 1 bath in the ghetto.

Shakster said...

Chaosflation-worse than deflation
Rising nearterm rates
Gold-up
Stocks EFF IF I KNO
mortgage rates steady
dollar down
GDP-Real Value against gold down
David Leee Ray-Useful Idiot will remain "AT Large"
Foreclosures?-SSSpffff
Casey No way he gets the hammer,

Shakster said...

BTW-Does anyone have an opinion on Why General Motors is delaying their financial report? Me says it's scary bad.Hot tip -Honda maybe having trouble too.

deflation said...

Deflation in our future.

We've already had gross inflation the past several years in all but food and clothing.

Housing, medicine, education, all were grossly inflated.

Deflation will help the banks retain worth on what little money they've got left, no?

Anonymous said...

A record number of flippers, realtors, mortgage brokers and appraisers are sent to prison where they meet Bubba and Tyrone. The rest will be back in the gutters where they resided prior to this insanity

Anonymous said...

"Who The Ef cares, all you renters will still be renting a decrepid 1 bed / 1 bath in the ghetto."

The Widget Man cometh.

Anonymous said...

"Deflation will help the banks retain worth on what little money they've got left, no?"

Put the crack pipe down man. After rehab you better get some gold.

Anonymous said...

CAisCrazy Says:

Inflation is on a tear, went grocery shopping yesterday and across the board price changes in two weeks is shocking. Someone needs to start an inflation blog to document this because its going to accelerate on the things we have to buy (food, gas, medical, insurance) and go down on Sh*%t we don't need (more houses, more Hummers, more Plasma TVs)

Think about this: for all of us who voted republican for lower taxes, pro-business. Democrats in office could have raised taxes in many ways and we still would have more $$$ than the loss of value in our $$$ Bush has handed us. Republicans = more dollars worth less.

2) Fed sits on hands, can't lower or $ tanks, can't raise until housing collapses to the point that it can no longer be blamed for causing the crash with a rate hike.

3) Gold should go up, but will be held down. It'll go on runs and then we will get smacked by massive US Gov. gold sales at 2am and wake up to huge portfolio losses.

4) Stocks? Government will want them to keep doing well to offset housing collapse. Dollars fleeing housing will go into market because gold fluctuations scares everyone away from PMs. Market will crash in 2008, soaking up much of the excess liquidity, POOF tons of excess dollars gone!

5) Rates, no drastic changes, housing has to blow up without the Gov. being blamed for causing it.

6) Dollar not much change. Powerful forces will keep it from tanking. After the market POOF, less $$ means the ones still left will be worth more.

7) GDP = Fake

8) Just another shady salesman, not enough room in prisons.

9) Foreclosures = Unprecedented.

10) Who cares.

Bideshi said...

"Isn't gold tied to oil? With oil leveling, gold should too."

Historicaly that's difficult to prove. Sometimes it tracks the oil price but sometimes it doesn't.

Anonymous said...

1) Inflation or Deflation?
Stagflation
2) Fed Rise or Fed Cut?
hold untill next year then cut like crazy to reinflate
3) Gold Up or Gold Down?
Gold up
4) Stocks Up or Stocks Down?
volitale
5) Mortgage Rates Up or Mortgage Rates Down?
flat
6) Dollar Up or Dollar Down?
down
7) GDP Up or GDP Down?
don't matter
8) David Lereah Fired or David Lereah Resign?
Neither his job is a mouthpiece to talk the market up no matter what.
9) Foreclosures Up or Foreclosures Down?
Way up
10) Casey Jailed or Casey Free?
fee in debt...