I will say this, TCDL is sure good for a laugh. How this man keeps his job I'll never understand though, as his discredited reputation and continual lies are making the NAR and ALL real estate clerks look like fools and liars by association.
Oh, wait, they are all fools and liars.
Realtors' economist stayed sunny all year
David Lereah saw bottom in first quarter, second quarter ...
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- There are two universal truths at the National Association of Realtors: 1) It's always a good time to buy or sell a home; and 2) We've seen the worst of the housing market correction.
The second truth was in the script used throughout 2006 by David Lereah, chief economist for the NAR, even as sales plunged by 8.4%, the fastest decline in 17 years.
With annual sales of 6.48 million, 2006 was the third best ever, but after five years of steady increases, it was a rough year for the industry. Through it all, Lereah never stopped smiling.
January 2006
Lereah's forecast: "The market is in the process of normalization."
Actual sales: Fourth-quarter sales fell at an annual rate of 12.6% to 6.94 million annualized.
Lereah's post-mortem: "The level of home sales activity is now at a sustainable level, and is likely to pick up a bit in the months ahead."
April 2006
Lereah's forecast: "Home sales will move up and down somewhat over the remainder of the year but stay at a high plateau."
Actual sales: First-quarter sales fell at an annual rate of 8.6% to 6.79 million.
Lereah's post-mortem: "This is additional evidence that we're experiencing a soft landing."
July 2006
Lereah's forecast: "The market should even out just below present levels."
Actual sales: Second-quarter sales fell at an annual rate of 6% to 6.69 million.
Lereah's post-mortem: "The market is stabilizing."
October 2006
Lereah's forecast: "We expect sales activity to pick up early next year."
Actual sales: Third-quarter sales fell at an annual rate of 22.2% to 6.28 million.
Lereah's post-mortem: "This is likely the trough in sales."
January 2007
Lereah's forecast: "The good news is that the steady improvement in sales will support price appreciation moving forward."
Actual sales: Fourth-quarter sales fell at an annual rate of 2.3% to 6.24 million.
Lereah's post-mortem: "It appears we have established a bottom."
It's possible that Lereah may be right, finally. The bottom must come some time, why not now, some 19 months after the bubble peaked?
But it's also possible we could be far from the bottom, as in the housing bust of 1978-1982, when it took 42 months for the market to recover.
If so, it could be a long year for David Lereah.
January 29, 2007
CBS MarketWatch calls out The Corrupt David Lereah for being a discredited liar
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19 comments:
Keith,
I follow your blog very closely and while I want to believe that your blog is fair and honest, I do think you omitted a paragraph from this article that provides a much more balanced viewpoint:
"It's unfair, of course, to single out Lereah's forecasts. He wasn't the only economist who was surprised by the extent of the collapse in housing in 2006; some were just as wrong on the other side by predicting the housing bust would bring down the whole economy."
Now, perhaps it's too soon to make judgment that the housing bubble has not brought down the whole economy--but, other indicators outside of housing suggest otherwise (at least at this point).
I realize that your blog provides the contrarian point of view. However, and I could be dead wrong here, I get a general feeling that your blog is trying to establish an identity as somewhat of a truth-telling/seeking blog. In that case, I think your blog would command more respect from everyone if you reported the entirety of the articles you quote, instead of selecting the parts of the articles that play to your point of view. The latter method is nothing more than spin, a tactic that sums up TCDL.
I really hope this article is an indicator that the MSM is onto the corruption of the NAR and of the realtor profession in general. Maybe then we can get some change, have realtors provide value (some are capable of this) and have their earnings be commensurate with the service and value they provide.
But first we need to destroy the existing structure, the NAR. And that includes utterly discrediting the organization and it's leadership.
last anon - I link to every full article I quote. To past full articles would make for a terribly boring and long blog. Go to Ben's blog for that.
I post highlights. Readers with time can read the full article, and then in the comments post any part they find interesting.
And in comments, never post a full article - only highlights, with links to the article
cheers
You know what's blatantly missing from that article and other recent articles? Several months ago, he is quoted as saying "that prices were to high, and had to come down."
So, how can things get better in 2007 without affordability being fixed through severe price corrections?
Paul E. - get the impression the bubble blogs laser-focus on The Corrupt David Lereah and NAR is now leaking over to the MSM?
As this crash continues to roll downhill I think people are going to be looking at the housing cheerleaders a bit more suspect. Next up will be attacking the bogus NAR and Commerce Department reports, instead of doing a rip-and-read as the MSM does today.
Hey anon 12:28:
"Keith,
I follow your blog very closely and while I want to believe that your blog is fair and honest, I do think you omitted a paragraph from this article that provides a much more balanced viewpoint:"
Keith posted the link. Those of us who actually read the article read the paragraph you referenced. It's not Keith's job to do everyone's reading.
Perhaps your real issue is that you want Keith to do everyone's reading and thinking for them?
Anyone notice bloodhound blog Greg Swann didn't post any information on that huge Arizona Republic mortgage fraud story?
Talk about hiding the truth!
Anonymous,
Re your comment about balance: I agree with your sentiment but I think the mainstream media provides plenty of contrary opinion and balance. And the link to the article was there.
Cheers, Haggis
Anon,
Keiths point in this Post was to point out TCDL's errors in his predictions. Keith supplying the LINK to the full article gives everyone a chance to read and make up their own mind.
If you pay a man enough... he'll say anything.
Just ask the wall street "analyst" who said pets.com was a good buy.
The articles should start with MAR "Chief Propagandist" or "Minister of Propaganda"
David Lereah, Chief Economist of the National Ass. of Realtors, has been exposed as a compulsive liar. However, as a contrary indicator, he has no equal. When properly interpreted, Lereah's utterances are always accurate. Here's how it's done:
Prophesy: "The market is in the process of normalization."
Translation: "The market is in the process of ABNORMALIZATION."
Prophesy: "Home sales will move up and down somewhat over the remainder of the year but stay at a high plateau."
Translation: "Home sales will move up and down somewhat over the remainder of the year AND FALL TO A LOW plateau."
Prophesy: "This is additional evidence that we're experiencing a soft landing."
Translation: "This is additional evidence that we're experiencing a HARD landing."
Prophesy: "We expect sales activity to pick up early next year."
Translation: "We expect sales activity to FALL early next year."
That's all there is to it.
With the cost of housing so unaffordable, the only obvious solution will be a universal housing program. The public will take ownership of all homes and distribute them according to the space needed for the family. The largest homes will go to the largest families. A married couple with no children will receive a one bedroom apartment. A single mother of twelve will receive a mansion. All new homes must be approved by the Minister of Housing before being built by unionized government employees who will be eligible for full pension and healthcare retirement at the age of 55. All materials contracts will be awarded to minority and female owned businesses.
I can't stop laughing when I read the highlighted portions!!!
This sounds like the Laurel and Hardy comedy "Who's On First?".
lost cause,
excellent idea. I say we expand it further to all goods and service, why limit it to housing?
A single person receives a 1.4L sub-compact car from th govt. A married couple receives a 1.6L compact. A family of 4 receives a 2.2L sedan and so on.
Same with TVs. Single person gets a 20". Family of 4 gets 32".
This system works so well in Cuba and N. Korea. I know it does because CNN keeps showing me thousands of people in the streets chanting Fidel and Kim's names. And since CNN never mentions it, I will have to assume that none of those people are forced into participating.
Oh the wonderful lives they must all lead with the government regulating every moment of their lives. Much better than our system.
lost cause,
no need for a universal or any kind of program..
Markets have a tendency to correct themselves
How long can people go on paying 2 mortgages when 1 is eating up 50% of their income
How long can builders and investors hold out with expenses and no income
How long can people go on spending most of their income on housing
At some point people will acknowledge they made a bad investment and bail out with a loss.
And before buying the next home they will do the math
Good old lessons learned .. it happens to the best of us.
It will not effect the entire economy the same speculators that benefited from the bubble
Will take a loss when it pops.
Are you ready for the next bubble.. I am.
Lost Cause,
Great idea. Does the guy in Utah with the 20 wives and 200 grandkids get Bill Gates' house?
Peter Schiff debates David Lereah on Fox:
http://europac.net/Schiff-Fox-1-12-07_lg.asp
Lereah had to know he was playing with fire all year spouting that nonsense.
Now it's all documented on TV, in news quotes, for years/generations to come.
So foolish to drag your own name through the mud like that.
He's cute though, there's a JC Penney's modeling job in his future.
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