It's 2007. Anyone think housing is NOT going to tank more this year? Or would that take a minor miracle?
Get your predictions in now - name your city and country and guess the median home price decline (or rise - he he he) for 2007.
January 01, 2007
HousingPanic Stupid Question of the Day
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222 comments:
1 – 200 of 222 Newer› Newest»I think the greater LA area is due for the biggest fall as it's gotten the most inflated (suburbs especially) but I think the market mentality here will be the slowest to turn. While the local economy does not support $500,000 medians I think there are still quite a few greater fools that will bite giving us a series of "false bottoms" on our way to a return to or near the mean by 2009.
So I would expect a 10-15% haircut by the end of 07. If however foreclosures pile up and a significant credit tightening takes place (Hello WAMU subprime scandal!) 20-25% seems possible. This would put the median for the county at about $375,000 (Higher in the metro) still VERY unaffordable to the $56,000 median household income. Especially if mortgage rates go 7% plus. If your in LA county prepare for 3 or 4 more years of patience unles that cherry of a foreclosure falls in your lap :)
USA:
NAR/MSM-published-bogus-can't-hid-it-any-longer number, nationwide drop in housing prices will be:
ten-percent.
However, BEHIND the scenes, there will be foreclosures piling up by the hundreds-of-thousands, MBS holders getting wiped out, banks being quietly liquidated by the Fed/OCC/FDIC, panic at Fannie/Freddie/FHLB/Private MBS issuers, derivatives blow ups, and all other manner of mayhem.
Sooner or later, even the Fed/Feds/NAR/REIC won't be able to continue to prop up "The Housing Bernie" (similar the movie "Weekend at Bernie's"), and then you'll see REAL fireworks with Congressional hearings, full-fledged bailouts of everyone from the GSEs to FBs, via "The Save the Homedebtor Sheeple REIC/RTC II Anti-Terror Act of 2007", or some such similar nonesense.
This will drag on for YEARS, not months, and it will be far into the 201X's before this is all played out and real estate reaches its bottom and the homedebting sheeple finally view a house for what it REALLY is:
A depreciating durable good, that will be a continuous money pit as long as you live in it, and which you will NEVER own thanks to propety taxes.
Prices already down 3-4% nationally from 2005.
2007 flat.
2008 back to 2005 levels.
Yes, yes I know I'm a troll, realtwhore(tm), Casey Serin etc.
We'll see in 2 years.
And another thing, what is this crap about never owning a home since you pay property taxes, insurance and maintenance costs on it.
Do you ever own a car? You pay registration fees, ad valorem tax (in some states), insurance and maintenance fees.
Do you ever own your business? You pay a yearly business tax (in some states) along with liability insurance, payroll taxes, etc.
If you view the world like that nobody every owns anything since the government gets its dirty hands into every aspect of your life one way or another.
which you will NEVER own thanks to propety taxes.
++++++
and insurance, if I may add.
My house was paid for, cash. Totally lost every thing, but wait, I had insurance.
Took five years for the law suit to play out and my settlement? $95,000.00
for a 3 br 2 ba on a lake and a Golf Course Downtown.
After I sued them, I Got paid, five years later, in 2001 prices.
The Insurance Company owns your home. nuff said, as it is OT.
Prediction: 40% Hair Cut off of the last three year gain to establish a new higher mean percentage.
"A depreciating durable good, that will be a continuous money pit as long as you live in it, and which you will NEVER own thanks to propety taxes"
Great quote, but houses appreciate at the "mean" because inflation raises the price of all the components of a home(building materials, labor, etc.)The U.S. tolerates some inflation because it lets us pay down debt at a lower "real" interest rate...econ 101, boring, but true.
Why do I even bother...
Miami will see a drop of 20% in 2007 for single family homes. Condos will fall by 30%.
The glut of homes and condos is remarkable. The building of high rise condos continues and when they come on line, the glut will worsen.
My 2007 forecast is
Bakersfeild, Calif.-10%
L.A. -12-15%
Santa Ana, Calif.-8%
Stockton, Calif.-9%
Las Vegas -10-12%
Dallas 4%
El Paso 5%
Miami -10-15%
Tampa -6%
New York City -5-8%
Boston -4%
Syracuse 5%
So what you have is California leading the crash. The Midwest will be fine with 3% or so a year. The west is will be a rolling coaster out of control heading way down.The South will see ups and downs but florida will be like Califorina. And the Northeast will see mostly - 6-10% expect for places that have no bubble they will rise.
jrinlv,
- prices have already fallen 6% from the all time high in late 2005
- inventory today is 2300 less than it was 11/1 with 10 straight weeks of declines. prior to that it had been increasing every 1-2 weeks for the whole year.
- price has been steady at $329K for 9 weeks. prior to that it had been falling every 1 or 2 weeks for all 2006
I know, I know, I'm a troll, realtwhore(tm), Casey Serin, etc.
Of course inventory is lower, it's the winter season which always has lower inventory.
How about comparing to the last couple of years? It is a safe bet that it is way up YOY.
(Anon 8:23 stated):
"And another thing, what is this crap about never owning a home since you pay property taxes, insurance and maintenance costs on it.
Do you ever own a car? You pay registration fees, ad valorem tax (in some states), insurance and maintenance fees."
(Butch reply): Uh, Anon, simply pointing OTHER THINGS of which the state has taken away ownership via taxes and fees DOES NOT mean a homedebtor ownes his or her house, which is also taxed ad infinitum. In fact, you have just re-inforced my point: That there has been a hijacking of private property rights in America. Thank you.
Next:
(Anon 8:40 wrote):
"Great quote, but houses appreciate at the "mean" because inflation raises the price of all the components of a home(building materials, labor, etc.)The U.S. tolerates some inflation because it lets us pay down debt at a lower "real" interest rate...econ 101, boring, but true.
Why do I even bother... "
(Butch replies): Houses don't "appreciate". They rot, wear out, fall down, the paint peels, termites eat their very foundation, the rain seeps in, the cold makes them crack--do you get the picture yet? Regarding your "The U.S. tolerates some inflation" remark, perhaps YOU tolerate it. And the government/banking cabal tolerates it because it steals from the masses. However, I don't find it at all tolerable. And you won't either if you should be so "lucky" to live a long time, stay in the same home and have that "appreciation" (go'vt/bank inflation) eat you alive and drive you out of the very home you believe you "own" as increasing taxes, insurance, and maintenance chew through your savings and fixed income.
Why do I even bother...
I think the numbers through the 1st quarter might offer some false hope to those that think there will be no crash. I expect prices to be done a minimum of 10% by end of 2007
How can you people talk real estate when Britney collapsed at Pure this morning
at least 45% nationally with 70%+ in bubble areas
any reasoning behind this number?
Shut up asshole. prices are falling 45% and that's all there is to it. Anyone who thinks otherwise is an idiot or troll. Which one are you?
-45%......get off the weed
looking at flat to -5% in 2007, 2008 too....
That is not Patch, it is the sock puppet troll, again.
Please check profiles.
Ignore Trolls.
Interest rates will dominate and decide if values go down. If rates hit 7-8% then I see nationally price declines between 5-30% depending on locations.
If rates stay the same or decline? I think even ridiculous markets will stablize or show a very small price rise 1-3%.
If major conflict breaks out? (Israel nuke Iran or?) then the world economy will tank and at least 50% off worldwide.
45% assholes, read it and weep
That is not Patch, it is the sock puppet troll, again.
Please check profiles.
Scaramento 50% down from the top. LA and inland empire also 50% down though it may not quite exactly hit it in 07. My thought is it will be closer to 08 fall, but we'll see it starting 07. 07 March for sale listings quadruple from today's number in all 3 areas.
My home market Charlotte NC (I expect the bubblicious areas (southern area - Ballantyne etc) to tank, but the non bubble areas to stay where they were. Basic houses are the norm for new construction and builders will sell for 10-15% more than their building costs. No fancy crap like travertine bathrooms etc.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.
Is HP dying? Loosing an audience? Lost it's zip as conversation at parties like flipping houses did last year?
I've noticed that the posts and information here these days is pretty stagnant. Sort of like those Tv shows that want to tell you about Nostradamus and you watch and see nothing new that hasn't been said for the past 30 years and you waste an hour hoping for some new insight but get nothing specific or tangible.
Lets have some real facts, solid analysis of what is going on in each blogger's local market, enough with hear-say etc but some solid meat that we can use.
From financial sense:
Faced with the prospect of a continuing devaluation of paper money, the public began to see saving and caution as foolish, and the naturally thrifty French turned into a nation of gluttons and gamblers. People started to throw their money haphazardly at the stock market and “in the country at large there grew a dislike of steady labor and a contempt for moderate gains and simple living.”
The tumor, as White calls it, spread to business circles, journalism and politics; indulgence was followed by corruption growing “as naturally as a fungus on a muck heap.”
One economic perversion bred the next. The Comte de Mirabeau’s previous claims that patriotism and enlightened self-interest of the people would maintain the value of the paper money couldn’t have been more wrong. In fact, a vast debtor class, consisting mainly of those who had purchased the church lands from the government, proved to have a vested interest in the depreciation of the currency. Since only small down payments had been required, with the balance to be paid in deferred installments, land buyers were hoping for a devalued currency to diminish their debt.
“Before long, the debtor class became a powerful body extending through all ranks of society. . . all pressed vigorously for new issues of paper. . . apparently able to demonstrate to the people that in new issues of paper lay the only chance for national prosperity. . . [While] every issue of paper money made matters worse, a superstition gained ground among the people at large that, if only enough paper money were issued and were more cunningly handled, the poor would be made rich. Henceforth, all opposition was futile.”
"Is HP dying? Loosing an audience? Lost it's zip as conversation at parties like flipping houses did last year?"
Yes...even more every day.
"Butch replies): Houses don't "appreciate". They rot, wear out, fall down, the paint peels, termites eat their very foundation, the rain seeps in, the cold makes them crack-"
Butch, sounds like you live in a shitty house...
Of course, dipshit, houses wear out, thats when you sell them, at 5-7 years old, so theres no remod, then buy another new one...no different tan divorcing the wife and getting a nice fresh 26 year old replacement(speaking from experience)
Florida Gator
Is HP LOOSING an audience? I don't know about that. It may be LOSING an audience.
Irvine & Orange County, California: 5%-7% decline between December 2006 - December 2007.
However, I will go out on a limb to predict: Do not be surprised if there's an uptick of about 2%-4% between May - August 2007 (in YOY comparison for some of those months)
Double-digit rise in house prices
UK house prices rose by 10.5% during 2006, according to the Nationwide building society.
Growth in property prices continued to be strong in December, rising by 1.2% during the month, Nationwide added.
The average UK house is now worth £173,746, and is rising in value at the equivalent of £45 a day.
Nationwide said that there were few sellers coming to the market, and as a result house price growth was unlikely to "moderate in the very short term."
We expect worsening affordability and recent interest rate hikes to affect the levels of activity in the market
Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide
Overall, house prices increased three-and-a-half-times faster in 2006 than the previous year, Nationwide said.
Undersupply
The prevailing theme of the housing market was undersupply of property - particularly in the buoyant London and south east England markets - helping force up prices beyond most forecasters' expectations.
"Evidence from estate agents continues to show that supply conditions are tight with fewer sellers coming to market," Nationwide economist Fionnuala Earley said.
"We expect worsening affordability and recent interest rate hikes to affect the levels of activity in the market," Ms Earley said.
Continued growth in house prices could add weight to those calling for further interest rate rises in the new year.
Nevertheless, Ms Earley predicted that UK interest rates had "peaked" at 5%, while house prices would jump by between 5% and 8% during 2007.
Notice this article after England had a slowdown in 2005/2006 and now on the march again? What about here where home prices are at least a 1/3 lower than the average home in Britain...175,000 pounds is bout $350,000 and that isn't going to buy you a large flat either.
I am already seeing price reductions here in the 15% - 20% range, and sometimes that is not enough to get an offer, I would not have said this even 2 months ago, but I think 40% for south florida is quite possible
Price of houses in NJ are holding -maybe 10% decline in 2007?
yawn
I second the anon from the Garden State. If the ARM resets are as bad as I think we will see higher amounts. @008 will just get worse.
Food for thought:
It seems that many people do not realize that it takes a 50% decline in prices to erase a 100% gain.
Example: your house was $300K in 1999 and now it has increased by 100% to 600K.
If you lose 50% of the value, your 600K will be back to 300K.
It amazes me that many people say a 25% decline is OK when you have had a 100% gain, but then again, elementary math is not one of the strong points of many people.
Very good essay over at SafeHaven about the coming crash, backed up with graphs and historical references. Pretty iron clad argument:
http://www.safehaven.com/article-6621.htm
I'm still seeing houses selling in the Virginia beach/Norfolk area. 5-7% rise in 2007
trolls, all trolls here...anyone who doesn't see a 40% crash is a troll
A 40% crash in all markets? Get real you Y2K losser
Of course, dipshit, houses wear out, thats when you sell them, at 5-7 years old, so theres no remod, then buy another new one...no different tan divorcing the wife and getting a nice fresh 26 year old replacement(speaking from experience)
Florida Gator
You buy a new house every 5-7 years??
Of course you make a profit every time right?
The average UK house is now worth £173,746, and is rising in value at the equivalent of £45 a day.
JESUS CHRIST! In 10 years it will almost double! I better buy one over there too!
20% to 40% drop in Los Angeles for 2007.
Next year this time will be the midpoint of the fall with the panic in full mode, blood in the streets, congress screaming for heads and the Great Humungous camping out a pirate oil refinery in the middle of the desert!
26 year old! Man, you're trolling the used merchandise bin at K-Mart.
Really, anything but an 18 year old virgin (14 year old in Kentucky) is already worn out.
No widespread HP in '07. Some markets will get hit (LA, Vegas, Phoenix), but on average prices outside of those bubble capitals will be UP 5%-10% by the end of '08.
Why? Because inflation is now spreading to wages and there are no signs the Fed is tightening the money supply or making credit harder to get.
neighbor planted potatoes today, rather than lawn. is reality comming apart at the seams?
Y2K? Oh crap that reminds me I still have 10,000 batteries and 4000 gallons of water in storage from that. I was convinced the end of the world was coming.
Trolls here trying to be clever and funny. Wasting your time trying to influence the bubble from the blogs. It's too late, you can't beat the gravity of trampoline cycles like the one we are experiencing. Quit wasting time and start looking for another carreer or you'll wind up on skid row. I don't care about you and that woulb be a karmatic ending. But don't do that to your family.
Coconutz!
Northern Virginia 10%-15% decline due to inability of NVAR to integrate "no sale-house taken off market" into their stats for 06. A 10% decline means another $50,000.00 to $75,000.00 vanishing into thin air. Oh well guess that profit was not really there anyway. Just imaginary. Oh but wait... did I hear Centex, Lenear, Hovnanian, Toll, Ryan and Ryland breath a chuckle. Why yes, they have the profits...gotten when they sold the piece of plastic crap house to the bimbo's with the big incomes.
coconutz....is this the same coconutz from ft?
housing is going to rebound sharply on a tidal wave of inflation from Bernanke
anon 2:14,
Come on admit it, you still have the water and batteries. Did you also build a bomb shelter? Oh no you rent, so I guess not.
Do batteries last that long I wonder.What about bottled water, how does that taste after 7 years.
Tell me shakybaby, when I buy a pair of pants do I actually own the pants or does the government own that too? How about my underwear...mine or the state's?
Freak.
I'm about to eat an apple...should I get written permission from my Senator before I do in case the Dept of Energy owns it
My father in-law bought me tickets to an NHL game for Christmas. Are those tickets mine? Can the governor show up and confiscate those tickets at any time?
of course you don't buy it...no data is ever to be "bought" by HP
NAR data is lies
govt data is lies
every piece of data is lies except anectodal data from HP bloggers
That is of course unless the data is bad news, then it's bought without question.
My friend's sister's husband's best friend's mother's ex-husband's girlfriend's son's 3rd cousin sold a home for $40K less than what his neighbor sold for last year in Scottsdale, AZ.
Based on that I predict a 70% crash in Arizona and a 39% crash nationwide.
The reason the trolls are showing up is now there is something to argue about. Before, they thought it was all a slam dunk that there would be no real estate crash. Now they aren't so sure. There's nothing they can do about their upcoming financial execution but they try anyway by talking.
Doesn't matter what we say on this blog, things will go the way they go.
ha ha ha
sure thing... sales up in nov, prices up in nov....yeah it's a slam dunk a crash is coming
shakybaby,
I just bought your mother for the night..do I own her or just rent her from her pimp...
freak
wonder how many of you renters will end it once you realize your pipe dream of a 40% won't materialize and you will rent a 1 bed/1bath in the ghetto with mexican/nigger neighbors for the rest of your natural patehtic lives
People point to the UK housing market ( slowdown in increases 2004/05, 10% 06 ) as portents of what will happen here in the US. OK, then here's a article from today's torygraph:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/01/02/nhomes02.xml
Some points from the article:
Overvalued house prices threaten crash
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor
Last Updated: 2:25am GMT 02/01/2007
House prices are at their most overvalued for 15 years, new figures showed yesterday, as hard-pressed home-owners struggle to pay their mortgages.
And with the gloomy prospect of a record tax burden and unprecedented rises in household bills comes a warning that interest rates could rise by far more than expected.
Morgan Stanley and PriceWaterhouseCoopers warn there is a high chance of a severe fall in house prices in the coming years
....
The Daily Telegraph/Lombard Street Research Housing Affordability Index shows that they are more overvalued than at any time since 1991 — when prices were plunging after the last major slide.
....
The affordability barometer, in which 100 points represents the average expense of house prices since the early 1960s, is now at 94.3 points.
....
This comes days after statistics showed that the average homebuyer is borrowing 6.5 times their salary when taking on a new property.
The investment bank Morgan Stanley and the consultants PriceWaterhouseCoopers warned that there is a high chance of a severe fall in house prices in the coming years.
An LSR economist, Diana Choyleva, said she thought prices could rise by as much as 15 per cent in 2007.
.....
He predicted another year of rising house prices, but warned that as borrowing costs become too great for many families, the market will slow dramatically, before going into reverse in 2009.
-----------------------------------
My prediction - 2nd Homes in the Rocky Mountains drop by 40% - bloody hope so - I want to buy a pad up there..
-K
Our market, Parkland Florida, is headed for a huge crash. There are currently almost 2000 homes for sale between $500,000 and $2500000 in the Parkland/Coral Springs area. Several hundred of these are brand new construction.
Nothing is moving, and nothing has moved for 6 months. These homes are all 4,5,6 bedroom houses. Property taxes have doubled over three years, insurance has tripled.
I can't speak for other markets but Parkland is headed for a mega crash. Most families that want a 4-6 bedroom house could hardly pay the property taxes and insurance, forget about a mortgage.
I honestly wonder if they will have to sell these huge houses for $200000-400000 just to get rid of them.
If you search realtor.com for Parkland Florida sales and rentals. The inventory is staggering.
Is anyone keeping track of gold? I like the kitco charts.
Warning the following statement is my own personal opinion. It is simply my personal market timing play to be made with my own money. Do not try this with your own money as it may be hazardous to your financial wellbeing.
I’ll take the Yale numbers at 45% inflation adjusted decline in prices by 2010 based on historic trends since 1890. I predict second and vacation homes will be the first to decline and the worse performers overall. I predict high unemployment and hearty competition in all areas of employment, especially real estate or luxury item related areas.
wonder how many of you renters will end it once you realize your pipe dream of a 40% won't materialize and you will rent a 1 bed/1bath in the ghetto with mexican/nigger neighbors for the rest of your natural patehtic lives
------
You who said the above are a RACIST BIGOT and it doesn't matter how many McMansions you own or think you own, your soul is dead. Wake up and get some humanity, you make me sick.
wonder how many of you renters will end it once you realize your pipe dream of a 40% won't materialize and you will rent a 1 bed/1bath in the ghetto with Mexican/Nigger neighbors for the rest of your natural pathetic lives
Wow, is this how a homeowner makes a point for the validity of his position on housing prices? You truly are ignorant if you think ethnicity plays any role in intelligence or market predictions. I assume you are white by your comment. What an embarrassment you are to humanity.I hope your heart is not so hard as to truly hate the gift of diversity. It does not hurt those different from you; it is a form of suicide.
Anonymous said...
wonder how many of you renters will end it once you realize your pipe dream of a 40% won't materialize and you will rent a 1 bed/1bath in the
--------------
Who are you going to sell your over priced house to when it goes up 20% a year but wages don't match?
Soon all the lawyers and doctors will have a house and you'll be shit out of luck.
Lower your fvcking price or you will not sell! Listen to your starving realtwhore!
oil is heading down, no inflation. as interest rate falls, housing will at worst sustaining, not collapsing!
Sometimes, prediction and reality are mutually exclusive...
My prediction for Sydney Australia is for Houses to drop another 5% and Units to stabilise.
As much as I wish to see a 25% drop where I'm looking (an innercity neighborhood of Portland Oregon, nice old homes, real sidewalks, and big trees) it just doesn't seem like its going to happen. I've been tracking real estate here since June 2006. I've seen a high of 250 houses for sale in this one zipcode, but now there are about 170 for sale, many have been pulled b/c of the holidays. Prices seem to have gone down on most houses, tracked some that went from $560k to $530, $560 to $499, $570 to $499, $819 to $799. Sure some of the prices dropped, but even at the lower price, many of these homes did not seem to justify the price but they somehow eventually sold.
That is the problem, I see a real game of chicken between sellers and buyers and the buyers are blinking, and so sellers seem to feel justified in asking thier sky high prices. And I guess they should if some GF continues to come in and buy them. I sold a house June 2005 for $458k. It sold three months later for $485k. Then was on the market for $580k this fall, didn't sell, they dropped the price to $560, then pulled it from the market best I can tell. Dont know what the final outcome will be, but it wont be pretty, and I think it wont be pretty for buyers. We will gulp and take the plunge b/c hey, the damn Californian's will come in a snap up the stuff, thinking they are getting it for a song, (same old story, but played out differently when we thought we'd all get brought up with the rising tide) and so those of us who would rather not do creative financing and who aren't making $300k a year will still be left out in the cold. I'm not saying this will be state-wide, just in the tiny gentrified pocket where we hope to buy in again.
At least a million dollar house here looks like something impressive and is not a fixer 3bed pos that you'd find in LA.
Even though I've been a pretty faithful reader of this and other housing blogs since June, I'm not feeling optimistic about the housing crash that these blogs always seems to foretell. There are just not enough things in place to bring this house of cards crashing down. Maybe anarchy in the streets, a dismal economy, NO ONE buying ipods, gas prices at $8 a gallon (like it is in London) and a coup in the white house, but for some reason the ills of our choices dont seem to fall as hard upon us as they do the rest of the world. Asian Economic crisis of 97, Argentinian of 90 something, you guys know the history, it always seems to happen elsewhere, but not here.
Guess I'm really bitter tonight b/c we just realized that even though we make $110k a year we will not be able to afford a house with our lifestyle. Even with a $100k down payment. We dont live extravagantly, but we are comfortable. We dont buy every toy out there (no playstations, wii, or blackberrys in this house) but we do send our only child to a private school (hate the fact that Portland Public Schools considers a 1-30 ratio reasonable for learning) and driving one car we are making payments on and one that we bought used, totally paid for. Inflation exists, our money is not going very far these days, and if we are feeling pinched making what we are making and being in the top 10% world-wide, what must it be like for the rest??
Husband and I wondered tonight if everyone is living on credit or if everyone bought a house in 1974? But that can't be true can it, with all the sales that have happened in 2003,2004,2005,2006.....
We just shake our head and wonder what we are doing wrong? Wanting too much?
Hamsterhouse, I'm in almost exactly the same boat. My wife and I make a combined 125K, but we drive a used car (1997), take transit to work (as everyone should) and while we have a nice house, it's probably slightly below average for the neighbourhood we live in. The only difference is that houses in our neighbourhood go from $225-$425K (we paid $275K for ours), so we were able to get into the market. We aren't suffering by any means, and I would even say that we are quite fortunate, but I can't help but wonder how our neighbours are doing it. We're already seeing quite a few for sale signs in the neighbourhood, and I know that not all the sellers are selling to move up.
I've been following real estate in Canada's Capital Region for about 7 years. From 2000 to 2005, prices went up about 30-40%, which is a lot, but not like some of the booms other areas have experienced, partially because all the losses in high-tech jobs post-bust negated the other changes in the economy.
Over the next few years, real prices around here are supposed to stay stable, that is, growth under the rate of inflation. What I'm seeing is that some of the higher-end homes around here (over $600K) just aren't selling. They stay on the market for 3 months, then get taken off, a bathroom gets added or the backyard gets landscaped, and it's thrown back on with no luck.
I don't think we'll see any huge price decreases here...yet. However, once interest rates go up a little higher, and if the public service and high-tech sector start cutting jobs, there could be a huge increase in houses on the market, which would drive prices down.
glasgow = hick town UK
If any area in the U.S. gets hit hard by declining property values, it will affect everyplace else quicker. This happened in the 92-95 bust when I worked for the RTC. State economies are more interdependent with each other than you might realize.
>> Tell me shakybaby, when I buy a pair of pants do I actually own the pants or does the government own that too? How about my underwear...mine or the state's?
Did you pay by cash, check, credit card or ANY other form of currency? Then yes, the US government owns it, not you. You need to be schooled on how our "money" actually works...
After seeing all the developments that are still in only the beginning buiding phase here in Reno - and not counting the ones that are already built and sitting vacant, and knowing the pay scale for this area, I would say we will be seeing a 50-65% drop in prices.
Southwest Florida asking prices are taking a nose dive even while massive inventories remain at 12 month highs.
I'm not a renter. I'm a homeowner whose house has tripled in value, Lake Arrowhead, California near San Bernardino.
I want to move up to a bigger house but I'm not going to hock my future to do it. The price escalation is disgusting and cause by people taking mortgages that offer early rates they can afford but whose later payments will crush them.
They were bought on the proviso that the house value was going up so later refinancing would solve the later inability to pay the mortgage.
I think many of the economists and realtors making these soft landing predictions don't live in Los Angeles where prices have tripled and more since 1996.
I'm not sure what sort of "bailout" will be possible for Mr and Mrs Too-much-home-buyer.
If you allow a moratorium on mortgage payments, it only delays the inevitable and will crash the mortgage lenders.
Are you going to mandate that businesses give their homeowner employees raises, in the case of Los Angeles the house prices have tripled. Are triple times your salary raises in order here?
If the Fed lowers interest rates to keep those ARM payments cheap that will crush the dollar as investors who are lending dollars (selling money) will get much lower returns than investing that money in a foreign currency, silver, gold, a foreign stock market or any tangible commodity that has a real value (is in demand).
But please, keep building houses. Keep putting them into an already saturated market. It will only make the prices that much lower when the bottom falls out.
Silver is up 1.7% since Friday's close if that tells you anything about investor's lack of confidence in the dollar.
Hopefully a lot of investors had time to read over the holidays and will realize how risky the housing market has truly become and will pull out on Wednesday morning.
That was me. OK I'm racist and my sould is dead. Be that as it may I live in a neighborhood where the only mexicans I see are mowing the lawns or cleaning the pools.
You live in an an apartment buulding where the only white people you see are the police showing up at 2:30am to investigate the domestic disturbance from Jose's apartment upstairs.
-------------------------------
Anonymous said...
wonder how many of you renters will end it once you realize your pipe dream of a 40% won't materialize and you will rent a 1 bed/1bath in the ghetto with mexican/nigger neighbors for the rest of your natural patehtic lives
------------------------------------
You who said the above are a RACIST BIGOT and it doesn't matter how many McMansions you own or think you own, your soul is dead. Wake up and get some humanity, you make me sick.
**Ignore the trolls, the true HP-er’s know what we’re truly in store for. The trolls are just sick of Ramen noodles at this point.**
My 2007 predictions:
1. Gold: A bumpy ride, but up over all. I predict it will surpass $750 at some point in 2007.
2. Oil: Another bumpy ride, but WAY UP. I think we’ll flirt with $95 a barrel by July 2007.
3. Housing: Down 10-15% across America as a whole. In bubble markets like Florida, Arizona, California, Nevada, New York, Virginia closer to a 20-25% cut for 2007.
If we are making predictions I will say gasoline hits $4.00/gal. Supermarket prices continue up, utility prices up, extreme homedebtors effed.
Finally an honest person on this blog. You are bitter and you are angry because you missed out on the good times by getting out of the market at the wrong time.
Couple of points though:
1. $110K between you and your husband is not that much. I am constantly amazed at how so many people think if they make $100K+ they're rich and entitled to luxury. $110K today is nothing. As the NY Times puts it, $200K is the new $100K.
2. Buying a playstation of a Wii is not living extravagantly. It is providing your kids with some fun toys, nothing wrong with that.
3. You are in the top 10% worldwide indeed, probably more like top 5% actually. You have adequate shelter, food, transportation, access to medical care, cable TV, phone, internet connection, your child goes to a private school, you have enough leisure time to surf the web and post your thoughts on a blog and you have $100K in the bank. Your life is pretty damned good wouldn't you say? Next time you get a burst of anger, compare your lifrstyle to the 50% of the world's population that lives on $2 a day.
"Guess I'm really bitter tonight b/c we just realized that even though we make $110k a year we will not be able to afford a house with our lifestyle. Even with a $100k down payment. We dont live extravagantly, but we are comfortable. We dont buy every toy out there (no playstations, wii, or blackberrys in this house) but we do send our only child to a private school (hate the fact that Portland Public Schools considers a 1-30 ratio reasonable for learning) and driving one car we are making payments on and one that we bought used, totally paid for. Inflation exists, our money is not going very far these days, and if we are feeling pinched making what we are making and being in the top 10% world-wide, what must it be like for the rest??"
Be of good cheer renters.
Just realize that soon, Mr and Mrs Too-much-home-buyer will be paying tax and mortgage at the full rate on an 800,000 loan, for a 500,000 dollar house.
Thats about 6400/mo plus 1500/mo property tax, about 7900/mo.
I worked at a place in the San Fernando Valley (Los Angeles) and the guys there were throwing around numbers like 800,000 like it was lunch money. They had no idea what that money really meant as they were only thinking "per month on an interest only ARM". As soon as they have to actually pay the amounts involved per month the gravity of what they committed to will sink in. These were invariably young guys who had no idea of the relative prices inflation that has occurred in housing, and who thought that 800,000 for a 4 bedroom cracker box was a good deal.
Totally insane.
From 1965 to 2005, the median price of a new home went from $20,000 to $240,000. During this 40 year time frame there were only 3 years with YOY declines in prices.
1970 was 4.5% lower than 1969
1991 was 3.8% lower than 1990
1992 was 2.1% lower than 1991
37/40 years showed an increase in prices. The biggest yearly decrease in prices was 4.5%. And yet here you are making 15, 20, 25, 30% price decline predictions for 2007 and a 5 - 10 year decline.....makes no sense.
Oh but we are at record inventory so prices have to plummet. Well, they were at record inventory in 1990 as well.
Oh but we are at record foreclosures so prices have to plummet. Well they were at record foreclosures in 1990 as well.
Oh but builders are slashing prices. They were slashing prices in 1990 as well.
Oh but mid-east turmoil will cause inflation and instability. Well If I recall, in 1990/1991 there was a bit of mideast turmoil as well. And also in 1973, 1974, 1979, 1982, 1983, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 and yet amazingly the price of homes went up, up, up throughout all those years.
Oh but manufacturing jobs are going away. Yeah, this song has been a top 40 hit since the late 1960s. Remember how Japan was going to take over? And yet throughout the 80s home prices went up, up, up.
yumm, I wish I had a sweet deal on some burgers...lol
according to Jim 'Mad Money' Cramer, the real estate market will shoot up at the end of '07.
Sacramento: Not looking so hot
http://www.sacbee.com/101/story/101621.html
you renters will end it once you realize your pipe dream of a 40% won't materialize and you will rent a 1 bed/1bath in the ghetto with mexican/nigger neighbors ...
Do you have kids? Not me. Better be careful what you wish for. They will live at home until you die. And no grandkids. Oh btw - no more police, teachers, firemen for you either. And oh, btw, the cost of everything now doubles due to infrastructure costs.
Jim "Mad Money" Cramer is a REIC shill. His years of experience as a trader at Goldman Sachs and running his own hedge fund are to be ignored. He knows nothing.
On the other hand Keith sold a house in Phoenix. He is a real estate expert and is never to be questioned.
Hey, isn't that a tad racist?
No more firemen? Please explain.
------------------------------------
"Do you have kids? Not me. Better be careful what you wish for. They will live at home until you die. And no grandkids. Oh btw - no more police, teachers, firemen for you either. And oh, btw, the cost of everything now doubles due to infrastructure costs."
racist, mmmm maybe. true, yes.
Forget past history of what happened from 1965-2005. The run up in prices from 2001-2005 has been historic. The number of creative sub-prime mortgages has been historic.
The baby boomers heading towards retirement is going to be of historic proportions. The national debt is heading toward historic proportions. Consumer debt is at historic proportions. Social Security is heading toward a historic situation of the number of workers compared to number of retirees. Medical costs are historic proportions. Obesity is at historic proportions and will cost historic amounts of money to deal with the health effects long term.
The infrastructure of America needs historic amounts of money for repair over the next 20 years. The unfunded pensions for municipal workers is a historically huge figure...
Forget what housing did in the past. All these outside factors are of historic proportions ....how they will affect housing is unknown.
What is known is that the rules from the past will not apply over the next 40 years.
re: no more firemen
My point is that normal workers who keep society running will no longer be able to live on their incomes. It is happening already. Florida is loosing working class people everyday - an economy cannot function where everyone is a doctor, lawyer, or wealthy retiree.
Anon 4:04 said:
"Forget past history of what happened from 1965-2005. The run up in prices from 2001-2005 has been historic."
Great argumnet you have there!! Forget history, this time it's different. Where have I heard that before?? There was nothing historic about 2001-2005.
2001 to 2005 prices went from $175K to $240K or 37%.
1981 to 1985 prices went from $83K to $110K or 33%.
1971 to 1975 $28,300 to $42,600 or 50%
Nice WSJ consumer price comps.
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/images/
YE-AA267B_CONSU_20070101184455.gif
or
http://tinyurl.com/ymcuh2
SF has a median home price of $650K. And amazingly enough within the city there are cops, and firmen and McDonald's employees and nurses and plumbers and waiters and busboys and tens of thousands of other non-dcotors, non-lawyers, non-reirees.
I wonder how that's possible. Hmmm.
Historic this historic that.
Jezuz people everything is historic in terms spending. 2006 was historic compared to 2005 just like 2005 was historic compared to 2004 and just like 1955 was historic compared to 1954.
The population grows every year of course government will spend more every year. And if you morons would stop voting for tax and spend socialists (dems and reps) maybe this increase could slow down a little, but it will never reverse as long as the population continues to grow.
Yes and 1940-1950 home prices doubled.
And the other post about Florida loosing people? Population continues to grow and just where do those people go? It isn't like the vanish. Yes, many move to lower cost states and some move to higher cost states and most just live the best they can. We haven't become like Mexico.....yet, where millions flee to find a better life.
When the medium price in England is over $350,000 for a small flat I hardly think the end of the world has arrived yet in the USA with medium home prices still in the low 200s. Then again I guess American's will have to choose...a home, food, or all those Chinese toys.
re: Firemen
Dumb dumb, they already own. Ask yourself if firemen are currently buying in SF or elsewhere. Ask yourself if people will continue to enter that noble field when they realize they have to live 20 deep in 2 bedroom apartments and cannot afford to have kids. Or will they just move to middle America? Burn SF burn!
I'm sure people move out of Florida every day. And people move into Florida every day too. That is the American way, move to where your opportunities lie. One man's shitty situation in Orlando equals another man's dream situation in Miami.
I've lived in 3 states and 2 countries (excluding the US) in the past 10 years. Had nothing to do with affordable housing whatsoever.
All my neighbors that I know well are from out of state. I'm pretty sure none of them moved for lack of affordable housing.
FMW, no offense but those WSJ numbers seem a little off. $5260 for a day stay at a hospital? I've heard stories of people being charged $25k for an hour of their services. Hospitals are the biggest extortion racket in the world. They charge someone not in an HMO 3x more. I'd rather die than give those bastards my money.
50% of the world's population that lives on $2 a day.
I am sick of this analogy. The world that lives on $2 a day, only needs to spend $1 for their daily needs. Its a hard life no doubt but its not expensive and the kids dont freaking need Wii or PS3's, they play lots of games with each other, I dunno like soccer or cricket or fly kites and they are happy. The "developed world" thinks they are suffering, but guess what, they have grand parents and uncles and brothers and sisters within a shout of each other, and they are prepared for everything.
We will starve to death if we made under $80K cos our over leveraged life will bleed us dry. We dont need a PS3 in every stocking (heck we dont need stockings at all) and we dont need 4 types of cappucchino at your finger tips, and we definetly dont need chevy suburbans to "haul" the kids to soccer.
Stop thinking the 50% that lives on $2 a day needs you to rescue them. They need that as much as the over priced Real estate you have in 90% of the country.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.
Anon 4:48,
The argument is lost when the name calling begins. Game set match.
Anon 4:49
Your comment is comical. I was responding to hemorrhoidforhousing who used the term: nimbleheaded schmuck. Oh, so sorry
tinyurl.com/yesl3h
desperate
Again, I hope you people dont have kids. Enjoy the final days of the American empire! I would rather see this country become what it was 50 years ago - where normal people with normal jobs could have children, have their wife stay home and raise them, and their kids would have the chance to do the same. Greed destroys. Goodbye great America.
We will starve to death if we made under $80K cos our over leveraged life will bleed us dry. We dont need a PS3 in every stocking (heck we dont need stockings at all) and we dont need 4 types of cappucchino at your finger tips, and we definetly dont need chevy suburbans to "haul" the kids to soccer.
Absolutely. We should all wake up, walk to work, work, walk home to work and stare at the walls until it gets dark. Then sleep. Wake up and repeat.
Who needs suburbans or PS3s or gourmet coffee or any other kind of entertainment
wow the renters are getting their panties in a bunch and it's still early. perhaps your nieghor Jose or DeAndre was blasting the music at 3:00am. You couldn't sleep so you're grumpy in the morning.
anon, you are a funny little troll.
Absolutely. We should all wake up, walk to work, work, walk home to work and stare at the walls until it gets dark. Then sleep. Wake up and repeat.
No you wont stare at the walls. your get together with people your age/preference and play soccer or something.
Who needs suburbans or PS3s or gourmet coffee or any other kind of entertainment
OK this is a problem. your suburban and gourmet coffee are entertainment ???
And no you cannot even imagine how crappy your coffee is compared to somehting you can buy off the street in a small village in africa. Why ??? your coffee is freighted in from somewhere (Columbia or java or Indonesia or whereever) and there they make it on the spot. None of the canned microwaved crap. It will take them 20 mins to make you a cup, so you order and wait. Gourmet is what they have everyday. I know cos I used to live there and being a tea drinker I grew up thinking tea is impossible to be bad. Till I had tea made from a tea bag. That was it, I threw up after the first sip. We need everything and we need it now. That costs money baby. It costs you space and you now need to hold all these things in your Mcmansion and ... materialism has eaten you, and under $80K a year, you'd starve to death. I was happy and never near starving on $2 a day. I lose my job here and in under a month I'd be wondering if I really need to eat today ???
$2 a day - yes, but they never get laid off, and they can live on $1, have all sorts of family time. How is that for your math.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.
I'd rather die than give those bastards my money.
++++++++
LOL
Me too. I would rather live on a healthy diet and vitamin supplements than go to a Doctor. Oh yea, I do. Imo, Docs will kill you faster than the disease. Sorry obout the OT post. Could not resist.
No offense taken, Buzz, just posting.
iw
Anon 5:10,
Your yet to be born son will one day be sharing the flat with Jose. And probably performing sexual favors on DeAndre for $ to help pay the cable bill. Yes, you are so smart.
african coffee and tea....you renting imbeciles are more far gone than I imagined
Hamsterhouse 8:21:14 AM bemoans the predicament of housing unaffordability in the Portland area and asks, “We just shake our head and wonder what we are doing wrong? Wanting too much?“
-----------------
Perhaps this is the year that people will take a step back, look at themselves, and decide that they already have enough.
It is time to simplify. So you already don’t buy every toy out there? Great for you!
Want to cut your cost of living even more?
1) Lose the cell phone and cancel the service. Don’t allow the advertisers to manipulate you into thinking that you can’t live without it. You can.
2) Ditto for cable TV service. Rotting in front of the television set is time that is wasted. Nobody on their deathbed ever looks back on their life and says, “Gee, I wish that I spent more time watching TV.” Think about it. Read a book, spend time with your family, go outside and get some exercise.
3) Lose the $4 per day latte habit while you’re at it. Trust me, you can live without it.
4) In the market for a vehicle? Why not buy used? Avoid used-car dealers and buy from a private owner. Sure, it is a crap shoot; isn’t life? The odds are in your favor if you keep your guard up and don’t fall in love over appearances. Have a mechanic check it out first, if the seller agrees to this. You will save yourself $$$ in depreciation over new, and more $$$ if you buy it with cash, rather than make payments & pay interest. Oh, and look for something that gets decent mileage. Duh!
5) Need to buy something? First, ask yourself if you really need it, or just want it. Then, flip through the sales flyers to find where the bargains are. Ditto for groceries, and don’t be shy about stocking up on something.
6) Renting a house? If the landlord is o.k. with it, why not dig up a corner of the back yard and put in a garden? Start small and manageable. Growing some of your own food is good for the soul as well as the pocketbook, and you just might discover an enjoyable way to spend the time. Plus, it is a good way to get over the loss of your cable TV & cell phone.
For those who feel that they ‘deserve’ to drive a new car, have all the ‘toys,’ and borrow & spend like there is no tomorrow, feel free to ignore the above points, as they do not apply to you.
I know some of you reading this will ‘get it’ and understand that I am not advocating a lifestyle of self-denial; for those who don’t understand, no explaining will suffice.
-Mammoth
FMW, maybe I should will my stuff to the malpractice lawyers assn. ;-)
W-O-W!!! W-O-W!!! Holy shit W-O-W!!!
This is from the same guy who is sad Hal Turner's web site is gone.
Are you one of these idiots that bought Kevin Trudeau's book?
http://tinyurl.com/3nz5a
----------------------------------
"Me too. I would rather live on a healthy diet and vitamin supplements than go to a Doctor. "
When you have all those huge factors of historic proportions all coming together, it changes the rules of the game.
For example, in the past Social Security had 4 active workers for every retiree. In the future that number will go to 2 active workers for every 3 retirees.
Common sense tells you that the rules used in the past will not apply to the future.
Obviously you can't look to the past 40 years as any indicator at all of what will happen over the next 40....when all the conditions have changed.
If in the past you could rent a house for $1500 that sold for $175,000. And now you can rent a house for $1500 that has an asking price of $400,000.
Why does it make sense to buy a house for more than twice the asking price as before, when you can rent it for the same amount as before?
idiot that lives on a healthy diet
+++++++++
Oh yea, every one that lives on a healthy diet is an idiot.
iw
So you did but Kevin Trudeau's book.
W-O-W!!
W-O-W!!
Holy shit!!!
W-O-W!!
Kevin's BIO:
In September 2004, after having been charged repeatedly with false advertising, infomercial marketer Kevin Trudeau became bound by an FTC consent agreement under which he agreed to pay a $2 million penalty
Around the time that the consent order was signed, Trudeau began flooding the airwaves with a 30-minute infomercial for a book called Natural Cures “They” Don’t Want You to Know About. Although the infomercial suggested that the book would make specific recommendations for specific problems, it actually did not.
In 2005 Trudeau published a second edition that included alleged "natural cures" for more than 50 diseases and conditions.
In 2006, he published a third book called More Natural "Cures" Revealed in which he claims to have gotten his inside information from a "secret society" that gave him "health secrets"
Are you guys part of his secret society too?
Mammoth,
So you rent an apartment, grow your own veggies, have no cable, have no cell phone and drive beat up cars. So you live in the 1960s, well done.
60% nationwide hair cut
98% hair cut in Phoenix.
Anyone who says otherwise is a troll.
I like HP. I like to keep tabs on what the extremists are thinking/doing. If blogs were around back then, who knows, the OKC bombing may have been prevented.
All I can hope for is that the FBI is watching, taking notes and recording IP addresses.
of course the FBI is watching you fucknuts. The FBI monitors all extremists, noen-nazi groups. Why would you think this would be any different.
everyone's a troll even me ignore everyone
I am not a troll. Anyone who says Phoenix homes will sell for more than $8 in 2007 is a troll.
$8 are you nuts?
Do you know what the median income is in Phoenix?
No way homes go fro more thna $3.75!!
Troll!!
We just shake our head and wonder what we are doing wrong? Wanting too much?
You are not the only one.
You are all missing the big picture. You don't need a home. It's marketing that makes you think you do.
All you need is a tent and some firewood. $200 total cost. No taxes, no maintenance.
Don't waste your money on a home.
firewood? fuck that. I just need to sticks and I'll start my own fire. You've fallen for the marketing of "BIG FIREWOOD" my friend.
i believe your post is racist
They stay on the market for 3 months, then get taken off, a bathroom gets added or the backyard gets landscaped, and it's thrown back on with no luck.
---------
Big deal. Most recent buyers did not buy bec of a bathroom or a back yard. They bought bec the next year the price was supposed to go up 20%.
It was hysteria. I had so many friends, loanowners or not, telling me "you got to get in!" I thought about it and then I did the math (GOD FORBID!) Then I learned that I did not want to ruin my life JUST to "own" a debt.
I'll sit on the sidelines and laugh.
Anonymous said...
re: no more firemen
My point is that normal workers who keep society running will no longer be able to live on their incomes. It is happening already. Florida is loosing working class people everyday - an economy cannot function where everyone is a doctor, lawyer, or wealthy retiree.
Tuesday, January 02, 2007 4:15:05 PM
------------------------
Amen to that
New Haven County, Connecticut. Housing up 4%, condos flat.
sounds like a representative of the union speaking...this is always the way public employees get more money out of taxpayers, by giving this bullshit about how a fireman or teacher can't afford a home, as if it is written into the constitution that every second rate city employee must own a home
and you imbeciles fall for it all the time..except that in many cases the "poor" city employees make more than the taxpayers themselves. In Las Vegas the average fireman makes $105K a year with overtime...and this doesn't even begin to account for the generous benefits and retirement packages they get
http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2004/Feb-10-Tue-2004/p
hotos/news.jpg
Poor poor firefighters who can't afford a home...
Nearly half of the county's fire force, or about 285 personnel, was paid more than $100,000 last year, according to records obtained by the Review-Journal.
My oh my how will they survive on such meager pay???
In NYC, the poor, poor teachers only make $44 an hour. Can you imagine that? Only $44 an hour? Someone quick, raise taxes again they need another raise.
http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/
_nypost_teacher_pay_myth.htm
Hey trolls! Housing down 60%, Condos down 85% by news year day 2008. Inflation is running away, job loses at record high. Unemployment will be 25%. Energy costs and taxes will surge beyond your wildest dreams. Fed will RAISE rates in Februray to shore up the worthless dollar. If you trolls DON'T agree with me, then you are either stupid or in denial. Which is it?
Police pay in the bay area:
Santa Clara: $107,000
Berkeley: $94,000
Palo Alto: $89,000
Yup with minimum wage salaries like that no cop will ever be able to buy a home
http://www.city.palo-alto.ca.us/cityagenda/
publish/police-building-brtf/documents/
021506-PDSalaryBenchmark.pdf
uemployment at 25%? TROLL!!
We all know it will be 65%.
65%..stupid troll
Anyone with 1/2 a brain known unemployment will be 99.8% by June
everyone will be unemployed except Keif
Anonymous said...
SF has a median home price of $650K. And amazingly enough within the city there are cops, and firmen and McDonald's employees and nurses and plumbers and waiters and busboys and tens of thousands of other non-dcotors, non-lawyers, non-reirees.
I wonder how that's possible. Hmmm.
Tuesday, January 02, 2007 4:29:03 PM
--------------
It possible when the city worker buys 15 years ago.
from the SFPD site:
"
SALARY:
The current annual entry-level salary for Police Officers is:
$64,347 to $84,513
"
It's not possible for a new copper. He cannot qualify for the loan to live there! Even if he married another copper they would only qualify for $384,000 with a traditional loan. Even three police recruits going in together only qualify for $576,000!
Here is what a 2 copper family is qualified for:
605 Baker St Unit: C
San Francisco, CA 94117
MLS ID#: 317633
$380,000
1 Bed, 1 Bath
433 Sq. Ft.
GOOD LUCK!
where on earth are you getting this salary info from?
See here for all Bay Area Police salaries
http://www.city.palo-alto.ca.us/
cityagenda/publish/police-building-brtf/documents/
021506-PDSalaryBenchmark.pdf
did I miss something...since when is every entry level job supposed to buy a house..a 21 year old rookie cop not being able to afford a home is not the end of the world...look at a 31 year old with 10 years experience, his salary is double the entry level
Anonymous said...
In NYC, the poor, poor teachers only make $44 an hour. Can you imagine that? Only $44 an hour? Someone quick, raise taxes again they need another raise.
And they still can't afford to live there.
Anonymous said...
Police pay in the bay area:
Santa Clara: $107,000
Berkeley: $94,000
Palo Alto: $89,000
-----------------------------------
what are you complaining about? Sign up!
Anonymous said...
did I miss something...since when is every entry level job supposed to buy a house..a 21 year old rookie cop not being able to afford a home is not the end of the world...look at a 31 year old with 10 years experience, his salary is double the entry level
Tuesday, January 02, 2007 7:01:29 PM
-----------
Double?? The numbers posted from SFPD end at $84,513. Math professor here?
F em right? They should just live in a card board box under a bridge somewhere!
Anonymous said...
did I miss something...since when is every entry level job supposed to buy a house..
Are you honestly asking when is a $64,000 worker supposed to buy a house? What kind of asshole are you? We are not talking about a Burger King employee here.
I'm sure every homedebtor on HP makes $300k+, but if decent paying jobs can't afford a home this RE market is done.
Anon said:"Just realize that soon, Mr and Mrs Too-much-home-buyer will be paying tax and mortgage at the full rate on an 800,000 loan, for a 500,000 dollar house.
Thats about 6400/mo plus 1500/mo property tax, about 7900/mo".
Anyone see that Youtube video? It's a classic-shows what people are getting themselves into with these loans to buy their "dream house".
When the adjustable mortgage resets, it will leave many new homebuyers homeless. All because they are only looking at the monthly cost and want to prove to others they "can afford their dream home". Little do they know, that anyone breathing could get a loan over the last 5 years. They're no one special.
you fucknuts are something else
cops making $110K a year and you imbeciles think they can't afford a home.
tell me HPers, in your world what color is the sky?
teachers, cops, firemen...all blue collar jobs. so they can't buy a home, big deal. blue collar workers should be lucky they have anapartment to live in
last ANON
How many fucking cops do you know that make 110k a year? Besides that fucknut you know.
I personally have 4 friends that have been in the SoCal force for over 7 year and I fucking guarantee you they dont make 110k. Well maybe one guy because he just got bumped to detective.
FYI..its a known fact that cops are one of the best in overspending. Hence the boats and Harleys thay all 'must' have.
dipfuck,
I don't know any cops, I don't mingle with the hired help. I get the info from this. Is that chart on the 2nd page too complicated to follow?
http://www.city.palo-alto.ca.us/
cityagenda/publish/police-building-brtf/documents/
021506-PDSalaryBenchmark.pdf
Santa Clara:
Policeman: $107K
Sergeant: $124K
Palo Alto:
Policeman: $89K
Sergeant: $107K
Redwood City:
Policeman: $89K
Sergeant: $115K
These public workers also have better health benefits and better retirement (which means they need to save less) than many other people.
Real world income may be as much as a PhD scientist, and job security much better.
and they get to retire after 20 years with full benefits and a pension of 1/2 their salary.
So at 40 the poor, poor cop is $50K from his pension, has full benefits and still has 20-30 years left for a second career.
Boo hoo for the underpaid policeman!!
Anonymous said...
Santa Clara:
Policeman: $107K
Sergeant: $124K
Palo Alto:
Policeman: $89K
Sergeant: $107K
Redwood City:
Policeman: $89K
Sergeant: $115K
Tuesday, January 02, 2007 9:06:36 PM
-----------
asshole, not every cop becomes a sgt! there are probably only one 1 sgt for every cop and they are probably the retarded kid of some pol.
fucknut,
all cops retire after 20 years. they all get pensions. they all get benefits. at 40 every cop is making $45-50K a year in pension and has free health care. At 40 they then get a job making $50K a year. They don't have to worry about IRAs or 401(s). They don't have to worry about health costs. They don't have to worry about shit.
Anyone who thinks cops are underpaid is a moron or uninformed, which are you?
Re: teachers, cops, and firemen
Gee, now teachers are blue collar workers. Hmmm....
Bottom line is the bottom 10 cities for salaries vs. cost of living:
188 New York, NY
187 San Francisco, CA
186 Honolulu, HI
185 Stamford, CT
184 Washington, DC
183 Los Angeles, CA
182 Boston, MA
181 New Orleans, LA
180 Fresno, CA
179 San Diego, CA
http://wwv.salary.com/personal/layoutscripts/psnl_articles.asp?tab=psn&cat=cat011&ser=ser031&part=par090
Why would they stay in your town...
oh pleaz...teachers work 8 months a year, 6 hours a day, full benefits, full pension and they complain about being underpaid...whatever
two kinds of people teach
1. Sons and daughers of the very rich who believe it is some noble calling. They don't need the money.
2. Those who could not do anything else. They should be grateful they are not digging ditches for a living and have a lower middle class standard of living.
Anonymous Disparagers -
Teachers, cops, firemen,
- and add to this - plumbers, ditch diggers, day care workers, carpenters, and the like do more good work in an average week than most MBAs, lawyers, politicians, and administrators do in their lifetime.
- BTW - I'm a systems architect.
Shame on you. This is the beginning of the end of a great nation.
systems architect eh? I bow down to you sir.
in 12 years of publik skool and hye skool I can count on one hand the number of good teachers I had....and I was in the supposedly top school district in the state, I can only imagine the garbage they have teaching at inner city schools
most teachers are overpaid lazy people who love to complain...typical union bullshit...same goes for cops, firemen, plumbers, carpenters etc
ya fuck the police
I am a Software QUality Assurance Manager for a bug time corporation maing 140k. Its fucknuts like you guys on here that are probably low level code monkeys slacking off that keeps me emnployed.
Software QUality Assurance Manager making $140K....ooooohhhh aahhhhhh
I bow in front of you too sir along with the systems architect.
I am a Systems Software Architect Assurance Manager myself. I make a gajillion dollars a year, pleased to make your aquiantance
I am a P.I.M.P. I make 90% of what my bitches make.
Fuck all y'all!!
LOL!!! anon 10:07
Fucknuts,
I wint to publik gramer and hi skool. All my teechers tawked about there weak end dates and there devorces.
But I gots a gud edukasion. Look at me now! Stop wranking on teechers, man! They be wirth evry pennie they be payd.
I now gots a gud job werking at the areport for the TSA.
All my teechers were 10-ured!
my teacherz wuz da bomb they tawt me how 2 spel end stuf
ALL HAIL PUBLIC EMPLOYEES!!!
Fucknuts, I am hear to stop All Quiidia from boording any moore areplanes! You can sleeep wel at nite knoowing that I are youre ferst lyne of difense!
ALL PRAISE THE TSA!!!
ALL HAIL PUBLIK SKOOL EMPLOYEES!!!
the police took my weed!!!!
el policia el took my weedo too homes!! el fucko los policias!!!
yea nigga da popop be stealin my weed too fuck dat shit mothe fucka
Systems Architect writes:
I am not impressed with what I do. If you read my tone, you would divine that. I write software, I have done it since I was 13 yo so I think I am pretty good at what I do. That is not the point. Supposedly I make large corporations more efficient - the truth is more that they can scale up and become bigger easier. So what? When they become big enough, most will just begin to leave the U.S. behind as their employment base.
Is this as important as teaching, or care-giving really? Is this as important as saving lives or building something real, that actually helps humans, like a house, or a fresh water well, or a mode of transportation?
If teachers and cops all suck and that is the most important thing you can think to say, our society is doomed. And our souls are done for. The point is they are important, and if they are not, our world is crumbling down.
10 thousand years ago, man had shelter for his family - it was simple granted. But if we can not provide AFFORDABLE housing to people that should matter, I dont know why ANY of us think we are very bright - after all, we cant collectively (after 650000 years on earth) solve the most basic problem of living. Good luck with your greed and your soul.
Good luck with your greed and your soul.
Tanks! I'll be wayting for you at the TSA!
Ahem, you're burdened by yourself.
system architect,
You are the typical liberal hypocrit. You talk the talk about how important teachers are and how awful it is that we live in a consumer driven society yet instead of putting your money where your mouth is, you make $140K a year and make yourself feel better by posting diatribes on blogs
well OK Mr. I want to save the world...why don't you take a60% pay cut and become one of these righteous teachers?
At least I'm honest enough to say i don't give two shits about teachers or their students. I make as much money as you but I'm not ashamed of it. I make it, I spend and I won't apologize for it.
Pleeze leeve mr. liberel hypocryte alone! I nead my job at the TSA! It's gyse that this that keap my job intakt! I'll be ryght back - I got another 2 yeer old blonde to seerch fer esplosyves in his dipers! It's peeple like you that inshore I gots a job for lyfe.
Keith,
You're about the only blog left that still gives the trolls a voice. You should turn on comments moderation and make the REIC suffer in silence as we talk about illegals and housing fundamentals that are as screwed up as a football bat...
You are filled with hate. You say you do not hate yourself - "I'm not ashamed ..." - but your words speak otherwise.
I never said how much I made (140K?) so you are confused somewhat. Anyhow, I am not preaching income equality, I am talking about the livability of life for everyone... this is more about being able to raise children properly than afford big screen TVs.
I am not a liberal by any means. I am in most regards extremely conservative - but not neo conservative - f*ck the middle class, jesus, bombs, money as god the father.
The primary goal in life is the improvement of the quality of life of humankind - this is the source of all commerce. I dont believe I can save the world, but I think all Americans can at least respect this country (and the work of generations before us) enough to care about its people and its future. If you can't do this, you're half a person at most. I just encourage people to think deeply about what they do, and if it makes your brothers worse, dont do it. I live by this everyday, I give my labor to a beneficient family run company that is as close to my values as I can find. I could make more money but at least I sleep at night. Anyhow, good luck!
PATCHES!!!!
Hey buddy, I missed you. How's life in the ghetto 1 bedroom apartment? Those 12 illegals next door bothering you again? Ohhhh poor patches
No you're a conservative in the blame the jews, blame the illegals, fear the government, there is a conspiracy around every corner conservative....friend that is not a conservative, that is a right wing loon
--------------------------------------
I am not a liberal by any means. I am in most regards extremely conservative - but not neo conservative - f*ck the middle class, jesus, bombs, money as god the father.
Patches is afraid of debate. He wants everyone to agree with him. He was in the military and he doesn't realize that this isn't like when he was shouting orders to his nigglet privates. Unlike the nigglets we get to talk back and patches hates it.
Don't you little Patchy pooh?
You fucking white trash piece of military shit. How many babies did you kill you cunt? How many men women and children did you mame? Huh you fucker. You like killing unarmed civilains Mr. Tough Guy Army man?
Rot in hell.
This country was founded on the idea that the government should not be trusted. And how many people really feel they have earned our trust as of late???Minutes ago I was a liberal hypocrite, now I am a right wing loon. I defy your words. I am not 2 dimensional.
you do realize that more than one person posts here...one man's perception of a liberal is another's perception of a right wing loon
i personally think you're an idiot right or left. feel better now?
Sorry Anon, I was away for a few days. It's the end of the month remember? You know, pay the rent. And as a smart renter I have massive amounts of cash left over, unlike some slob with a ARM loan and a house strapped on his back. I've already put a bunch in the bank, so I figured what hell, go piss some away in a gambling resort...
I do feel better.
That is what happens when you try and say something rather than just beat people down. You should try it sometime.
Prices have never gone up like this when incomes were flat to down, and the country was (population adjusted) loosing good jobs.
Also, some areas grew not at all. Some grew by 300% or more. That is not normal. And we all know that market physcology has never been this slanted to housing.
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