December 23, 2006

The NAR attacks Robert Shiller, says they "haven't heard the pop yet". HP's message to the NAR - Are you f*cking deaf?


What's the NAR hiding? Do they think people are so dumb that if they attack the guy who nailed the housing bubble call, just like he nailed the dot-com collapse call, that people will believe the NAR spin and lies vs. the now-obvious truth? And we all know (the NAR included) that the bubble blogs and their readers collectively had a big impact on the mindset of America. But of course the NAR doesn't want to admit that, no way no sir.

Folks, the NAR is run by some of the dumbest people in the country. Which is par for the course as I'd imagine most of 'em are real estate clerks. Garbage in... garbage out... God I hate the corrupt NAR.

Hat-tip to the most excellent paper money blog for the link. Here's their hack-job on Shiller:

Real Estate's 25 Most Influential Thought Leaders:15 Others Who've Had an Impact

Robert J. Shiller - Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Conn.

Why: Got big media coverage equating rising real estate prices with the tech bubble, but we haven't heard the pop yet.

Robert Shiller scored instant media celebrity when his 2000 book, Irrational Exuberance, predicted the tech bubble's explosion just weeks before the fact. Four years later, when he tried to apply the same principles to the real estate boom, he found out that all investments don't behave alike.

Shiller contended that rising home prices weren't based in the fundamentals of population growth and supply and demand; they were bubbles, destined to pop. To the contrary, NAR economists predicted that market slowdowns would largely be gradual trend that's playing out today. Shiller's failed bubble scenario demonstrates that sometimes even smart guys get it wrong

22 comments:

chris g said...

It would really interest me if these NAR economists could point out exactly when they predicted this gradual downturn.

Of course I'm being facetious. We all know that they finally "predicted" this AFTER the downturn was already under way. Before the downturn, the phrase "housing has reached a permanently high plateau" seems to ring a bell.

Sofia said...

"Four years later, when he tried to apply the same principles to the real estate boom, he found out that all investments don't behave alike."

One of the things the NAR may fail to realize in their criticism of Schiller is that when it comes to trying to predict the price behavior of an asset it is important to remember that being early doesn't necessarily mean that your prediction is wrong.

Paul E. Math said...

Yet another reason to hate the NAR. If you read the rest of the blurbs on the '25 most influential' you see that it is nothing more than a mixed list of 'people we like and people we don't like' with fake objectivity.

The list also slags a U. of Chicago econ prof and it praises Mozilo, the head of Countrywide based solely on where they side relative to the REIC.

It's not just David Lereah that needs to be utterly discredited, the whole NAR needs to be exposed as a self-serving collective of real estate whores.

I Love Broadband over PowerLine said...

Bruce Toll dumped another $15 million worth of TOLL....UNBELIEVABLE!!!!!

19-Dec-06

TOLL BRUCE E
Director
500,000 Indirect Sale at $31.62 per share.

$15,810,000

Bubba2Friday said...

I've said it before and I'll say it again:

Robert Shiller knows too much. The corrupt REIC will use their lobbyists to get the Feds to whisk Shiller off to GITMO as an enemy combatant. As I type the black helicopters are probably circling Shiller's home...

Bubble Shmubble said...

UNBELIEVABLE INDEED!!

This asshole has been selling stock from his company for years!! How dare he?


06/23/2005 200,000 TOL Open Market Sale

07/08/2005 330,160 TOL Open Market Sale

07/11/2005 70,000 TOL Open Market Sale

04/05/2005 37,400 TOL Open Market Sale

06/23/2005 91,000 TOL Open Market Sale

06/28/2005 171,600 TOL Open Market Sale

07/08/2005 200,000 TOL Open Market Sale

07/21/2005 673,300 TOL Open Market Sale

02/25/2005 945,000 TOL Open Market Sale

Walt Howard said...

This is very disheartening.

This house sold in 2002 for 107,000 and last month sold for 785,000.

That's over 7x value in 3 years. This is NOT atypical.

Bubble anyone?

http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?o=North&zprop=64851853

Bubble Shmubble said...

Walt,

WHAT??? Hold on!! Stop the presses!!!
I thought no houses were selling anymore. You mean to tell me that in the midst of a 40% crash, a house sold for 7X what it was bought for in '02?

Bubble Shmubble said...

Walt,

Not only that but I see

32355 Cape Horn Rd sold for $650,000 last month. It too was sold for $100K in 2002.

What the heck is happening here? How is a 40% housing crash yielding 700% increases in 4 years?

anon said...

ANSWER: Gov't is secretly buying and selling select properties; so they can JACK UP YOUR real estate TAXES!!!!

J6P is SCREWED!

You won't get rich in real estate-- your mortgage will be your master; you debt-slave.

Anon 1000 said...

Secret government buying and selling...OHHHHH KAAAYYYYYY

Uncertain Buyer said...

You are always going to have people buying now matter what the market is.

Ever thought that $700K is peanuts to this family?? That they don't care? Maybe they have a large family and don't want to rent.

Uncertain Buyer said...

You are always going to have people buying now matter what the market is.

Ever thought that $700K is peanuts to this family?? That they don't care? Maybe they have a large family and don't want to rent.

Just because someone buys a house doesn't tell us anything about the direction of the market.

breakthespeculators said...

I see debt people.

Anon 1000 said...

What does a large family have to do with anything? Rich people didn't become rich by throwing money away. If renting were significantly better financially they would rent.

This has to be the stupidest I have read here and that includes the thing about the deficit really being $4.6 trillion.

"You are always going to have people buying now matter what the market is. Ever thought that $700K is peanuts to this family?? That they don't care? Maybe they have a large family and don't want to rent."

kpom said...

Maybe they are getting a ton of cash back at closing...

stuckinthecity said...

Bubble Shmubble said...
UNBELIEVABLE INDEED!!

This asshole has been selling stock from his company for years!! How dare he?


06/23/2005 200,000 TOL Open Market Sale
-------------

So is that when he started selling mad amounts. That when he decided to cash out. Hmmm, I thought 05 was still up up and away!

Bubble Shmubble said...

He sold 200,000 shares in 2000.
He sold 700,000 shares in 2002.
He sold 133,900 shares in 2003.

I'm not sure what's wrong with selling shares for a lot of money. I owned several thousand shares of my former employer. I sold close to the peak of the .bomb bubble? Does that make me some kind of criminal as well? Should I have waited until the shares were worth $1.25 instead?

Huntingdon Valley, PA, September 18, 2000 -- Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL), the nation's leading builder of luxury homes, today announced that it has acquired 200,000 shares of its stock from Vice Chairman Bruce Toll at the then current market price of $30.00 per share.

Huntingdon Valley, PA, May 15, 2002 -- Toll Brothers, Inc., (NYSE:TOL). It was announced today that Bruce E. Toll, Vice Chairman of Toll Brothers, Inc. sold 700,000 shares of Toll Brothers stock over the past several days.

http://www.rightsideadvisors.com/
advisors/weekly.aspx?wid=8

bubble boys said...

No housing bubble? Go buy those condos in Florida and flip them for a quick profit. Yeah, I didn't think so

bubble boys said...

FYI

walt howard = bubble schmubble

What a dumbass

straight up gangsta said...

so what you imbeciles are saying is there are only two housing markets:

1. situation where there is flipping condos and 40% appreciation

2. a 40% crash

Nothing in the middle? Maybe a 5% indrease? A 7% decrease?

For such sophisticated world travelers, you sure see the world in black and white

Anonymous said...

I sold close to the peak of the .bomb bubble? Does that make me some kind of criminal as well? Should I have waited until the shares were worth $1.25 instead?


Maybe, Toll is getting out of the market. And to the few of us that have a brain, know that he is doing this because the ship is sinking.